Latest / The Pricing Marketing Podcast with Fexingo: Price Anchoring, Bundling, and Conversion Pricing / How Charmin Roll Size Explains Vanishing Price Anchors
Transcript
- Lucas: So Luna, I want to start with a specific package: a twelve-pack of Charmin Ultra Soft, the 'Family Mega Roll' size. You've probably seen it at Costco or Target. Luna: Yeah, I've bought it. The big blue package — feels like it lasts forever. Lucas: Exactly. But here's the thing — if you bought that same package in early 2025 and then again in early 2026, you might not have noticed that the roll count stayed the same, but the sheet count per roll dropped. Charmin quietly reduced the number of sheets on each 'mega roll' by about 8 percent. Luna: Hold on — so the package says '12 Family Mega Rolls,' the shelf price is roughly the same, but you're getting less actual toilet paper? Lucas: Exactly. And that's the subject of today's episode. Marketers call this 'price pack architecture' — the deliberate design of package size, count, and price to manage the consumer's perception of value. And one of the most powerful tools in that toolkit is the 'vanishing anchor.' Luna: Vanishing anchor — that sounds ominous. What is it? Lucas: It's when a brand keeps the same price point — say, $19.99 for a twelve-pack — but reduces the quantity inside. The price anchor doesn't change, so the customer feels like they're paying the same amount. But the actual value delivered has shrunk. It's a form of stealth inflation. Luna: And Charmin is a perfect case. But they're not alone — right? We've seen this with paper towels, cereal, coffee, even ice cream. Lucas: Not alone at all. In fact, a 2025 report from the marketing analytics firm IRI found that roughly 18 percent of consumer packaged goods categories saw some form of package downsizing in the prior twelve months. And the key insight is that brands do this precisely because they know consumers anchor on the sticker price. Luna: So the $19.99 becomes a sacred number. They'd rather shrink the product than cross that threshold. Lucas: Exactly. And there's a whole science to how they do it. Let me give you a specific example from Charmin's playbook. The brand offers multiple roll size tiers: 'Double Roll,' 'Mega Roll,' 'Family Mega Roll.' Each tier has a different sheet count. In 2025, a Family Mega Roll had 286 sheets. In 2026, that same tier was reduced to 264 sheets. Luna: A 22-sheet drop — about 7.7 percent. But the package still says 'Family Mega Roll,' so the consumer assumes it's the same as last time. Lucas: Right. And because the price didn't change, the per-sheet cost went up. But the shopper doesn't calculate that in the aisle. They see the familiar price point and the familiar 'Mega' label and think, 'Same deal as always.' Luna: But if you're a savvy shopper, you can catch this by looking at the unit price — the price per sheet or per ounce. Most stores are required to display that. Lucas: True, and that's the consumer protection angle. But here's the marketing insight: most people don't read unit prices. Studies from the Journal of Consumer Research show that fewer than 20 percent of shoppers consistently use unit price labels. The brand knows that. So the vanishing anchor works because the anchor — the $19.99 price — is so salient, and the quantity change is hidden. Luna: So this is a case where the price anchor is actually a disadvantage for the consumer, not a tool they can use. Lucas: Exactly. In the prior episodes, we talked about how companies use price anchoring to make their premium product look reasonable. But here, the anchor is being used to obscure a real price increase. It's a darker application. Luna: Let's talk about why this matters beyond just toilet paper. Because if you think about it, this affects the official inflation numbers too. Lucas: That's a great point. The Consumer Price Index — the CPI — tries to account for quality and quantity changes. But it's notoriously slow to adjust. A 2025 paper from the Bureau of Labor Statistics actually estimated that shrinkflation — the practice of reducing package size while keeping price constant — adds about 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points to real inflation that the official CPI misses. Luna: So the headline inflation number might say 2.8 percent, but actual cost of living increases could be closer to 3.3 percent because of these hidden shrinkages. Lucas: Precisely. And it's not evenly distributed. Categories like paper products, snacks, and beverages — where brand loyalty is high and consumers are less likely to switch — see more of this behavior. Procter and Gamble, which owns Charmin, is a master of this. They've been doing it for decades. Luna: Give me another example from them. Lucas: Take Bounty paper towels. In 2024, the 'Mega Roll' had 110 sheets. In 2025, it dropped to 100. Same price, same package graphics. Or Puffs tissues — the box count went from 124 tissues to 114. Each time, the decrease is small enough that most people don't notice. Luna: And the brand's reasoning — if they're honest about it — is that they're trying to hold the price line for consumers while dealing with higher raw material costs. But the effect is the same: you pay more per unit. Lucas: Right. And here's where the psychology gets interesting. Research by the marketing professor Rebecca Hamilton at Georgetown University showed that consumers actually prefer a small package size reduction over a small price increase. When given a choice between paying 5 percent more or getting 5 percent less product, the majority chose less product. Luna: Because the price anchor is so powerful — you don't want to see that $19.99 become $20.99. That feels like a real loss. Lucas: Exactly. The pain of crossing a round number threshold is more acute than the pain of getting a slightly smaller package. And brands know this. So the vanishing anchor is a deliberate trade-off. Luna: This reminds me of a conversation I had with a pricing consultant who said that one of the first things they look at is the 'gram price' — the cost per gram. Because that's where the real story is. Lucas: That's a smart approach. And I think that's a key takeaway for anyone listening: don't just look at the shelf price. Look at the unit price. And if you see that your favorite product's package size has changed, ask yourself: is the price anchor being used to hide an increase? Luna: You know, speaking of keeping this show ad-free and accessible, we rely on listener support to make episodes like this possible. If today's deep dive into price pack architecture was useful to you and you want us to keep doing it without ads, buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo is literally how that happens. Lucas: Yeah, and it's a small-ask thing — if today was worth a coffee, that's the link. No pressure, just appreciation. Luna: Alright, back to the strategy. So if you're a marketer listening — and I know some of you are — what's the ethical line here? When does smart pricing cross into deceptive practice? Lucas: That's the million-dollar question. In the U.S., the Federal Trade Commission has guidelines about deceptive packaging, but they're pretty loosely enforced. The key test is whether the package size change is 'material' — meaning it would affect a consumer's purchase decision. A 5 percent reduction probably passes. A 25 percent reduction, especially if the package looks the same, might not. Luna: And in Europe, there are stricter rules. For example, the EU's Unfair Commercial Practices Directive requires that any reduction in quantity be clearly indicated on the package for a period of time. Lucas: That's right. In France, since 2024, retailers are required to display a 'shrinkflation' warning on shelves when package sizes shrink but prices don't. So there's definitely a regulatory pushback. Luna: Do you think that will change the behavior of brands like Procter and Gamble? Lucas: In markets where it's enforced, yes. But globally, the vanishing anchor will persist because it works. The consumer brain is wired to anchor on the familiar price. Breaking that anchor requires deliberate effort — reading unit prices, comparing package sizes over time. Most people just don't do it. Luna: So the real takeaway here is: be aware. The anchor is not your friend in this case. And as a consumer, you have to be your own advocate. Lucas: Exactly. And for marketers, I'd say: use vanishing anchors carefully. Short-term gains from stealth price increases can damage long-term trust if consumers catch on. There's a reason brands like Costco and Trader Joe's have cult followings — they're transparent about value. Luna: Alright, next episode I want to talk about dynamic pricing — how Uber and airlines change prices in real time. That's a whole different kind of anchor. Lucas: It is. And there's a great case study from a major airline that accidentally showed customers their personalized price anchors. But that's for next time.