Latest / Global Insights / Brazil's Elections, with Christopher Sabatini

Transcript

Brazil's Elections, with Christopher Sabatini · Global Insights

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_01: The thing about Trump is that he recognizes who's got a game.
• 0:05
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, this is a man who hates losers, loves winners.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: On October 4th, Flavio Bolsonaro beat Brazil's president Lula da Silva in the first round of the elections.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_00: Flavio is the son of Jair Bolsonaro and an ally of Donald Trump.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: No one in Brazil's modern democracy had ever lost the first round and gone on to win.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_00: But last Sunday, Lula won the election.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_01: Brazil would have been the grand prize of what he's termed his Don Road doctrine.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_01: The largest economy in Latin America, the largest democracy in Latin America.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_00: Two days after the vote, we sat down in London with Christopher Sabatini of Chatham House.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: We asked him what Lula does with a fourth term and what Donald Trump does with a winner he didn't want.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_01: So, yes, a new the same president, not the one I expected, and I'm not taking a partisan position on this.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_01: It's not the one I expected, but he's gonna have a tough uh uh term uh after he when he's born in early January next year.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_00: This is Global Insights by Network 2020.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: Today, Brazil's upset, our conversation is moderated by Courtney Doggard, president of Network 2020.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_02: So, hello, welcome.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you, Courtney, welcome to Chathamunts.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_02: It's so such a pleasure to be here.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_02: Would you mind just introducing yourself?
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_01: Sure.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_01: I'm uh Christopher Sabatini, I'm director of a Latin America program here in Chattamounce.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_02: All right, great.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_02: And I know we've had the chance of meeting in New York and in Doha, and here we are in London.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_02: That's right.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but today I wanted to talk about the Brazil elections, which we will soon be moving off everybody's radar as we look at the Israeli elections and the US midterms.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_02: But I think everyone was a little bit surprised about this election.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_02: And I'd be curious just to get your take.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, did anything surprise you about this election other than the results?
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_01: Let's let's I'll I'll finish with the results because I was completely floored.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_01: I uh in fact had even teed up an article that was ready to be published on Monday predicting or saying that as if Flavio had won.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_01: But I think what's important to recognize these were not just about the Brazilian elections, although they're even more than that.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_01: But uh in this case, this was for Donald Trump.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_01: He's been bribing that he had helped elect nine presidents in Latin America, and Brazil would have been his tenth.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_01: And it would have, you know, there are and I think we shouldn't overstate how close some of these conservative governments or far-right governments in some cases are to Donald Trump.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_01: But you have Donald Trump aligned presidents in Argentina, Chile, uh, Peru, Ecuador, uh, Bolivia, Paraguay, and then you move to Colombia, uh, Honduras, El Salvador.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, it is a quite a run, if you will, if you take him at his word.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_01: Now, he has, in those cases, intervened in the elections, expressing his preference for individual candidates.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_01: In the case of Argentina, extending the$220 billion line of credit just before the midterms of the sitting president, who's very close, Javier Malay to Donald Trump.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_01: And he weighed in in these uh elections in Brazil as well.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_01: He kind of pulled back a little bit because it seemed to be working more in favor of uh the incumbent president, the leftist, uh President Lula da Silvo.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but it was clear where his sympathies lie uh in this case, or lying in this case.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_01: But in the first round elections in October 4th, Flater Bolsonaro, the son of uh a man that that was many people termed when he was president the Trump of the tropics, um, was you know, finished a few percentage points ahead of Lula in the first round.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_01: And in Brazil, it's modern democratic history, no president had ever been elected in the second round after losing the Fost Rev.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_01: And to be honest, uh, whatever we may think about Flavio Dolsonaro or Lula, Lula's campaign, President Lula's campaign was listless for the first round.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_01: It was very traditionally talked about his legacies.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_01: He and he is, he's been around for a long time.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_01: He founded the Workers' Party in 1980.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_01: He's been president of the party since he's run for president seven times.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_01: As of today, he's 81 years old.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_01: So happy birthday to Lula if you're listening, or happy belated birthday.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_01: Um but what he did was interesting because he fired his campaign manager, hired someone new, and then engaged in a massive social media campaign.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_01: He had a WhatsApp channel that was called uh the Lula Army.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, and people had to join, they're sending pictures.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_01: It was in many ways, what's curious is it was uh a page taken from the book of some of the far-right candidates that have been elected in Latin America, uh, in say, for example, uh uh El Salvador Nairobi Bukele or Colombia uh Abivado de la Sprilla.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_01: And and it worked.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_01: Uh he you know, and in the to make it even more difficult to imagine that he was going to win, he had to turn out more voters in the second round than he had to in the first round.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and he actually managed to turn out about 10 million more voters.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_01: Wow, so it was impressive.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_01: Um but and here's the here's the problem is that first of all, Flavio Bolsonaro has now his party has accepted the election results as of today.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_01: They're raising questions about the process because the polls had to be extended for 10, two hours, and it was done at the request of both parties, but in this case, it was kicked over to a justice that was friendly to the government of LULU.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_01: Um but Brazil's election system is very transparent, it's very tactical, very modern.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_01: That can be, you know, that that margin of extra votes that may have occurred in that we already know what it was, and it wasn't sufficient to tilt the election.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_01: But what's curious is Donald Trump, despite other presidents and heads of state around the world, from Canada to France to Paraguay to Peru to Chile to Colombia, recognizing the victory of Lula, Trump is still claiming that the election was rude.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_01: And again, why?
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_01: Because he had a lot riding of this.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_01: Brazil would have been the grand prize of what he's termed his Don Rare doctrine, the largest economy in Latin America, the largest uh uh democracy in Latin America, and with a very um long-standing left-of-center foreign policy that favored the BRICS coalition, that favored the global south, that favored multilateralism and reforming the multilateral system.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_01: But in win.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_01: And but now Lula will face a tough calm.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_01: Again, his age will be a hindrance, but also he's going to face both houses of Congress have majorities of the Conservative Party in alliance with the party that lost, the party of Flatter Bolsonaro.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_01: So, yes, a new the same president, not the one I expected, uh, and I'm not taking a partisan position on this.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_01: It's not the one I expected, but he's gonna have a tough uh uh term uh after he when he's born in early January next year.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_02: And let's um I'd like to just stay on Washington's reaction for a little bit and sort of how what you mentioned earlier about this lineup of countries that fall under the, let's say, the vision of the Donro Doctrine, that Western hemisphere outline that we saw in the national security strategy of 2025.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_02: Um how does this change that?
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_02: And where do you see the bilateral relationship going?
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_01: It's a good question.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_01: And I think first, uh, what we're already, I was when I was in Washington, I saw a president of a Latin American country speak.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_01: And what was clear there, and it's certainly now, with the uh round of congratulations from Brazil's neighbors showing, is that Latin America and with the US midterms coming up and the possibility that all the parties may lose, is you're beginning to see some of those presidents going to show some light between themselves and Donald Trump.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and I'm not saying that's necessarily a good thing.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_01: I I really don't like when uh uh foreign policy towards Latin America becomes politicized or becomes partisan, which is often the case for various reasons.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_01: Um it's never a good thing.
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_01: But in this case, what I think we are seeing is some are beginning to reconsider how closely they want to tie themselves to the Trump administration or even Trump personally, with the exception of a few.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_01: As they say, Javier Malay, the president of Argentina, is much more Trump adjacent uh than others.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_01: Many of the other presidents that have been sort of thrown into this basket of Trump are really just center-right um uh uh politicians.
• 8:59
  SPEAKER_01: Some of them have they're not outsider candidates like the Donald Trump or like the Javier Malay of Argentina.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_01: So I think there's a little bit of difference.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_01: And within Washington, I think the discussion is um a fear that there in the case of the Congress, if you have a Democratic House or even a Democratic Senate, and there'll be a lot of investigations and hearings and so on, but the Democrats really won't be able to form a coherent policy.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_01: They'll be too busy pursuing some form of retribution at the worst case.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_01: We don't have to even have to use those terms, but at least pursuing some transparency in what's being done.
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and so what I've seen, and it's I hate to make this comparison, but I will, um, you know, in many Latin American countries, when is you know, is what you have a polarizing executive, it polarizes politics generally, and it's difficult to rediscover the center.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_01: And I fear that's what we may see in the case of Latin America.
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_01: Um and you know, I think there are some things that needed to be shaken up uh on US policy towards Latin America.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_01: They've been stagnant for decades in some cases.
• 10:05
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but I'm not sure right now, given having talked to people last week in Washington, this is really going to necessarily be a constructive course of erection.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_02: All right.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_02: On that positive note, uh kind of shifting back to Brazil and the headwinds that Lula might face, um, you mentioned the parties that he has to work with, but also from what I understand, a very high uh debt ratio to GDP.
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_02: Um 84 or 7%.
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_01: And it will probably go up to 97 even in about full years.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_02: So with that in mind, and knowing that that's something that he'll need to tackle, where do you see him going economically?
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_02: And is that something that he might be able to work with, you know, the legislative parties on?
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_01: That's the other challenge because one of what he course-corrected after his first round election loss, um, he made a whole bunch of promises, uh, as candidates will do.
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, relieving uh family debt.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_01: Family debt is a huge issue.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_01: So we have 80% of families on our son from a debt.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_01: The average is that 30% of their income is going to paying off that debt.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_01: So it's a it was an important campaign class.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_01: But where that money is going to come from, the other problem is that about 90% of Brazil's budget is already mandatory spending.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_01: Pensions, healthcare, other sort of you know, guaranteed social safety net programs.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_01: So he has to raise taxes, he has to find that money somewhere, um, and he has to at the same time generate economic growth.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_01: And Brazil's economic growth is probably going to be around 1%, probably even less.
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so yeah, it could be uh very, very difficult.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_01: So he's gonna face his challenge.
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_01: And while some of the proposals he may propose, put forward to the Congress would be normally to the liking of centered right parties, I'm not sure they're gonna give him an inch after this very bruising political battle.
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_01: I think the only hope is that again, i if if Brazil is reaching a tipping point in terms of its uh economy, that there will be a sense, especially among private business, to pull up a little bit and say, okay, let's pull together for the sake.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_01: You know, as happened even with the Cardoso Plan, the Real Plan in the 1990s, which was to you know correct the currency.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know, that could be, you know, I hate to say this, but a crisis moment can be a good opportunity to course-correct and at least uh recognize um the collective shared sort of destiny of a country.
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_02: I'd like to bring um critical minerals into the conversation because that's something that I think ties both into the economic piece, but then also the Washington piece, because that was something of interest too.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, where do you see that going for Brazil?
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_01: So I think in the first case, uh um most uh not entirely, but a lot of the decisions on critical minerals or mining general extractives boils down to govern.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_01: So it's a little, I mean, obviously the federal government can override some of these things, but um yeah, and and they can get the government, the federal government in trouble if it's seen as giving too many concessions to the Chinese.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_01: Clearly, uh, given and and Brazil is the the second larger, largest deposit of rare herbs after China.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_01: So the this is a major prize.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_01: Um it really in the case, you know, I I Lula is pragmatic.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_01: He recognizes that there are red lines he can't probably cannot cross when it comes to giving China too much and tend to the concessions.
• 13:38
  SPEAKER_01: You can only look at what happened to the the um the port facilities at Panama Canal uh that were overturned by the Panamanian Supreme Court.
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_01: So he knows there are red lines there.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, the guarantees would have to be some form of ensuring that the supplies and that China's not giving them a monopoly over these supply chains, um, that the terms of those contracts are clear, um uh you know, enforceable under international arbitration, um, as well as that they um are conducted in a transparent bidding manner.
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_01: That those are lead that that doesn't matter, that doesn't mean necessarily won't trip up uh the Trump government if if if China gets access to one of the uh rare earths uh that Brazil has.
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_01: Um what I think though in this case, the problem is that the United States has not effectively used its development finance corporation.
• 14:33
  SPEAKER_01: It was created um under Trump one and is a really important tool um because you know that the idea of the DFC Development Finance Corporation is in part to replace development assistance, which of course was eliminated by Doge and Elon Musk, but to provide seed capital insurance to allow US investors to come in.
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_01: If Trump is serious, because it Trump just cannot only have or any administration, just Trump.
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_01: It can't just have sticks, it has to have carrots.
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_01: It has a very large carrot in the DFC.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_01: Let's hope, and I say this I hope for the sake of both governments, that they recognize that this is something that they can collaborate uh together on.
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_01: I will say one other thing about Trump, which is you know, Trump recognizes, he said it publicly, that uh Lula has charisma.
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_01: High grains.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and what we'll say about Trump is that he recognizes who's got game politically.
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, there's Luca, his relationship with Mamdan, the mayor of New York City.
• 15:35
  SPEAKER_01: They walked away, it looks like a love fest.
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_01: She does, I mean, this is a man who hates losers, loves winners.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_01: And in those, that case, I don't think it's it's it's not a given that Trump and Lula will clap.
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_01: Lula's a very charming, he's a former labor leader, he knows how to negotiate.
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_01: And as I say, Trump had already recognized him as a man worthy of his affection, if you will.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_02: No, excellent.
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_02: Um, if you're willing to talk about it, we were chatting before about the article that you just wrote, because you mentioned Panama Canal, yeah, China.
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_02: Would you mind just describing that a little bit?
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_02: Because I found it fascinating.
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_01: Sure.
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_01: And we've seen this in other cases, but China follows uh a policy that's uh very transactional.
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_01: In some ways, it's not that dissimilar from Trump's, except for they do it far more subtly.
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_01: So give a little bit of background, and thanks for the applause, by the portinary.
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_01: Um, there's one policy today.
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we did some research, and what happened after um Trump sort of railed against the Chinese-owned port facilities on either end of the uh Panama Canal by C.K.
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_01: Hutchins and the company is still, but they don't own it anymore.
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_01: The Panamanian Supreme, well, the Panamanian government did an audit, discovered the concessions that had been made somewhat in somewhat suspicious circumstances, um, and then revoked those concessions.
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_01: The Trump administration moved on.
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_01: They got their access to from military bases or military exercises, and they got you know a non-Chinese company owning these port facilitate facilities.
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_01: China hasn't moved on.
• 17:10
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and what they've been doing is they've been stopping Panamadian ships in Chinese waters and delaying them.
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_01: Um, this is a classic case of what's called lawfare.
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_01: But this I like to refer to as maritime lawfare.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_01: And they're claiming they have to inspect these ships for reasons of safety or reasons of customs, but they'll hold them for days.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_01: And if you're a supplier who's trying to get something in or out of China, that causes huge supply chain problems.
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_01: And so Panama is and was the number one country for flagging ships internationally, it's a major source of their income.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_01: 400 ships have been stocked as of I think it was just a few months ago, and we were able to collect all the data.
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_01: Um, 400 ships, that's a lot of ships, and it's a lot of cargo that's been held up.
• 17:56
  SPEAKER_01: And so 12% of the ships that were uh basically being flagged by have have reflagged somewhere else.
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_01: So they've lost, and that's a huge revenue, and they've lost hundreds of millions of dollars just this year alone from that.
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_01: And again, the world's kind of moved on, and you forget that China makes people pay.
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_01: It will squeeze you very, very quietly.
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_01: And for the poor Panamanians, you know, they don't want this necessarily public, and I understand they don't want to pick the file, but they've been deeply affected in terms of the revenue.
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_01: And of course, a lot of those shits that were deflagged under the Panamanian flag will probably not be going back.
• 18:33
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you.
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, and that's in foreign policy, it's in foreign policy.
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_02: Foreign policy.
• 18:37
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, excellent.
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_02: Um, last question.
• 18:40
  SPEAKER_02: Where else are you paying attention to in Latin America?
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_02: What's the what's the spot that's on your radar that we should be keeping an eye on?
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_01: You're a lot.
• 18:48
  SPEAKER_01: Let me just give a quick overview.
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_01: And I guess I'm gonna sort of get on a hobby force of mine where people are saying, oh, it's a Trumpist wave.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_01: It's sort of like the truth is is in most cases, and it was true of a little up until Sunday, this with the with the second unexpected second round of elections, this is really an anti-incumbent wave.
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_01: The party systems have really sort of disintegrate.
• 19:08
  SPEAKER_01: And you have outside of candidates.
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_01: The one thing that I really keep an I'm keeping an eye on is how close these elections are and how deeply divided they are.
• 19:15
  SPEAKER_01: Colombia is around one percentage point, even in Brazil, it's 3.6% separated Lula from Flavio Bolsonaro.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_01: In in Peru, between Keiko Fukimori and a pretty far left candidate, Sanchez, um, that was less than 1%.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_01: Um, these are very tightly contested elections between very polar candidates.
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_01: And that's something, you know, the stability of these governments, especially when it's you know, we're looking at issues of inflation, we're looking at issues of debt, is going to complicate the ability of these governments to address moving economic issues uh effectively.
• 19:51
  SPEAKER_01: So that's the one issue.
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_01: And then in terms of countries, Venezuela is always, you know, asking Maria Karina Machado on Sunday.
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_01: Uh her funding was kind of stolen, I guess, a little bit by Lula.
• 20:01
  SPEAKER_01: But she crossed the border, she's in.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_01: Um, she, yeah, I that's gonna be an interesting thing to watch because it's also displays a certain amount of uh difference within the Trump administration.
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_01: But for Donald Trump, he wants the extraction of Nicolas Maduro on January 3rd, 2026, to be a success story.
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and if Murray Carina Machado's there rally against the vice president, the interim president now, it will sort of it it will undermine his argument of a success.
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_01: He was very not interested in her going there.
• 20:32
  SPEAKER_01: Marco Rubio, on the other hand, appealing to his Cuban-American Venezuelan base in Florida, was very um insistent on her returning.
• 20:42
  SPEAKER_01: I think she's gonna play it safe, but I think now, and this is a good thing, the clock has started in terms of in Venezuela, which it hadn't before, on how quickly Venezuela can move to credible, free, and fair elections in a democratic transition.
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_01: Two other countries to watch, uh, Argentina, uh uh Hutter Malay's uh popularity with plummeting.
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_01: He has controlled inflation, but he needs to get in foreign investment quickly.
• 21:07
  SPEAKER_01: Um, he needs to pay off the debt, he needs to fully re-enter international capital markets.
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_01: We'll see if you can do that if you can't.
• 21:12
  SPEAKER_01: And his entire person, well, besides the hair, but his entire persona besides the famous hair is sort of libertarian economics.
• 21:21
  SPEAKER_01: And he's opened up the economy, the foreign investment isn't coming as quickly as it'd like.
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_01: And the other is is his career.
• 21:26
  SPEAKER_01: Cheiko Fulhimori, after decades of being in the National Assembly and undermining consecutive presence, now it's gonna be payback time for a lot of them.
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_01: And she's gonna have a difficult time uh uh basically getting events through Congress.
• 21:41
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_02: Well, Chris, I don't want to take any more of your time, but pleasure.
• 21:45
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you so much.
• 21:46
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, we will keep an eye on all of these developments, and I really appreciate getting to see you.
• 21:52
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, thank you.
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for joining us for this episode of Global Insights.
• 22:01
  SPEAKER_00: You can subscribe to Global Insights on the podcasts, Spotify, wherever you get your audio.
• 22:07
  SPEAKER_00: For more analysis, events, and ways to connect with our community.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_00: Click on the link in the description.
• 22:15
  SPEAKER_00: See you next time.