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Ryan Bridge: My final election prediction, Qiulae's out · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: We're nearly there, everybody. Voting is actually already happening for
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Kiwis who are living overseas. Monday, we start in country.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Two weeks later, she's all over. Counting begins. Result looks
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: as tight as a fish's bum at this point. Here
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: are my predictions. Opportunity won't get 5% and the coalition
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: will be returned to power. Now, before you get your
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: knickers in a knot. Why are you saying that? I
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: want to be clear, this is not based on some
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: scientific poll-by-poll analysis or electorate probability calculator. This is just
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: a gut feeling of how voters will behave once they
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: are actually in the voting booth. The fact that not
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: everyone who's polled actually turns out to vote and not
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: everyone who votes is polled. If opportunity does get over
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: the line, of course Luxon is going to talk to them.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: But he's got a strategy, and he's sticking to it,
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: and that's what you do. Campaigning politicians and CEOs do that.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: That's just what they do. Stick to the plan. No
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: point having a strategy that you abandon at the 11th hour.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: For me, the key part of last night's leaders' debate,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: this was the minor party leaders, the power brokers' debate,
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: was Q. Leong's vibe today. on the coalition partners. She
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: has voted for every single political party, basically, that has
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: been in Parliament over the last decade or so, except
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: for New Zealand First and except for ACT. If opportunity
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: gets in, they'd support with at most confidence in supply only,
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I reckon. ACT and New Zealand First's more extreme wish
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: lists might need to be put on ice in return
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: for their support, plus a few sweeteners on innovation, digital economy,
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: something like that. throw those in for good measure. Either way,
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: there is still a long road ahead before we get
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: elections close, but getting a government is a very different question.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: I reckon we will have started buying our Christmas trees
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: before the Governor-General is swearing in a new government.