Ryan Bridge: My final election prediction, Qiulae's out

Early Edition with Ryan Bridge · Oct 21, 2026 · 1m · transcript

Nearly there.

Voting's already happening for Kiwis overseas.

Monday, we start in-country. Two weeks later it's all over and counting begins.

The result looks as tight as a fish's bum.

Here's my predictions:

Opportunity won't get 5% and the Coalition will be returned to power.

I want to be clear, this is not based off a scientific poll-by-poll or electorate probability calculator.

It's just a gut feeling of how voters will behave once they get into the voting booth.

And the fact not everyone who's polled actually turns out to vote, and not everyone who voted is polled.

If Opportunity does get…