Transcript

RCV Overview · Newsradio WGAN

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We got another an e-mail on the break and I've gotten this
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e-mail a couple times before too, maybe to just actually talk
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about ranked choice voting in general and what I would
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recommend you do. That's been a request I've
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gotten several times and I haven't really made good on it
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yet. So I do have obviously other
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stories to get to here this morning, including AOC taking
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steps to run for president. Isn't that fun?
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Isn't that fun? And more on Iran, obviously, But
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just to briefly touch on this, since we are within now 2 weeks
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of the primary being over in, in Maine for both the Republicans
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and the Democrats and a lot of shots being fired across the bow
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now by both sides. You know, you're, you're
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considering your vote. And for those of you who've
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already voted, I suppose this is irrelevant.
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But for anybody that's going to be doing it on Election Day or
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you plan on turning in your early ballot soon or whatever,
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it's worth talking about at least briefly.
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So I can just start very generally by quickly describing
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the process of how this dumb ranked choice voting system
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works for those who still remain a little bit confused about it.
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And, you know, then talk about what I would recommend you do.
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So ranked choice voting, obviously something we've lived
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with for a while and I think most people are familiar with at
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least the concept of it and have used it in a ballot.
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But you know what the thing that always comes up is for
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questions. It's not like, hey, how do I
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rank? You know, like everybody
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understands, like first place check a police, dirt police, you
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know, everybody gets that part. But it's more strategy than
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anything else. Like if I do this, then what
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happens? And if I do that, then what
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happens? And how exactly do they count
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the votes? And am I doing something that's
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going to get my ballot thrown out if I do this?
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You know that those those questions persist even though
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we've been living with the system for quite some time.
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So very quickly, the rank choice voting system itself is intended
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to be something that has you take all seven people in the
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Republican primary, all five people in the Democratic
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primary, and rank from 1:00 to 5:00 or 1:00 to 7:00.
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So whatever whatever you know the number is, they would like
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it. In an ideal world, the ranked
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choice voting people would like you to rank them all and rank
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them in some sort of coherent order that you believe they are
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in. Of course, that's not how it
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works in the real world, but that's what they want.
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And if that's what everyone did with no exceptions, then I
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suppose theoretically, in this perfect utopia, then there
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wouldn't really be too much of a problem with the system, I
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guess. Of course, the problem is that
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human beings are human beings, and they don't actually operate
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that way. So lots of people make decisions
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based on other things. Now here's the here's the thing.
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If you vote and you rank everybody, you should be fine
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overall in terms of how it's all counted and re tabulated.
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If you don't rank everybody, then the moment you stop ranking
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and your last person is out, it is as though you were never
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there in the 1st place as long as the election is still going
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on, right? So let's just say that, well, I
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only have like you're in the Republican primary, I only have
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a top three. I only have a top three, you
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know, person one, person 2 and person 3.
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So you say, all right, I'm going to rank those three.
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But after that, I'm not ranking anybody because I the rest of
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them, I don't like them. I don't like them.
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So just the three. So you rank 1-2 and three in the
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first round #2 or no #1 let's just say to make it easy, number
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one is eliminated. You really like that person, but
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they're eliminated. Well, bummer.
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OK, well now your your vote is retabulated to whoever you
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choose for #2 in the second round.
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And so it goes to that person in the second rounds counting and
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well bomb lock, bomb lock #2's out now too.
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After the second round, they just couldn't quite get there so
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they're eliminated. OK, well that sucks, but you
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know what? I did rank #3 so I guess now my
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first vote and my second vote now I am re tabulating that vote
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to my third choice in the third round and that will be counted
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there. Blast.
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It happened. That person was eliminated also
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now in the fourth round because they're not done yet.
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And let's just say it goes to six, OK.
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In the fourth round, your third vote has now been eliminated and
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you don't have a fourth. So you are gone.
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Your ballot is is known as something called exhausted.
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It's it's an exhausted ballot. In other words, you have
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exhausted your choices and you have no more.
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So it is now basically thrown in the dumpster.
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And I say the dumpster for a very specific reason too,
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because it is actually done like that.
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Not physically like they don't throw it in the trash.
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But they do though because not only do they not retabulate
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anything because you didn't choose anyone else, but they
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also remove you from the denominator.
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What do I mean by that? Well, go back to the the
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election of Bruce Poliquin and Jared Golden that first got
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Jared Golden into Congress. You will recall, of course, that
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Bruce Poliquin won the first round of voting there and ended
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up losing in the subsequent counts.
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Why? What happened, right?
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Well, the retabulations happened, but the Secretary of
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State reported at the end of that election, the final tally
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for both the numerator, IE the number of votes that Jared
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Golden had, the number of votes that Bruce Paulken had, as well
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as the denominator, IE the number of voters who
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participated that were there in the last round counted.
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So it said that Jared got like 51% of the vote, I think, or 51
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1/2 or something like that when you get to that point.
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But that denominator, the total number of people voting counted
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the people in the last round. So anybody who dropped out, had
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an exhausted ballot, had an error, had anything that got
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their ballot thrown in the trash was not counted as ever having
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been there. If you did count them, if you
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said, look, this many people showed up today to go vote and
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we've retabulated and done our thing, sure, yes.
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But I mean, let's be honest, this is how many people voted.
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If you kept that number as the denominator, which I think is
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the most honest thing to do because if you walked into a
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booth intending to vote today, you were there and you
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participated. So that should be the number of
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total votes that were cast overall in that election if
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you'd if you were to do that. I think Jared Golden got like 48
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1/2%, something like that after the retabulation.
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And he still had, obviously he had more than Bruce, but he
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didn't have 50, that's for sure. So they remove you, is my point,
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from ever having participated in that election.
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Now on top of that, if you make an error like let's say you fill
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out two bubbles in the first round, just as an example, then
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your ballot is thrown in the trash.
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Also, that's not an exhausted ballot, that's an error.
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And there's plenty of errors, plenty every single time.
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I can give you the actual statistics if you want.
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I mean, made policy Institute's done a study on this.
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See how often it happens. It's a lot.
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It's a lot of people make errors.
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You know why? Because people are not
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sophisticated ranked choice voting experts that sit here and
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live and breathe politics like you and me do.
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And they show up to the ballot box and they look at it, it's a
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little confusing and they make a mistake.
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That's all. It's not hard.
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And doesn't matter that we've had it for 10 years, you know,
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some 82 year old lady who lives in Patton is, you know, just not
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really paying attention at that level.
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And so has, you know, some hiccups and mistakes.
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It happens, it happens. So those people are throwing the
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trash too. And then on top of all of that,
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if you do specific things with your vote, it is treated by rule
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by the Secretary of State in different ways.
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So let's say that you for some reason, and people do do this.
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By the way, let's say that you rank someone first, but you
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don't rank anybody 2nd and you do rank someone third.
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Now, what do they do with it? Let's just say that you're like,
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well, I don't really have a second choice, but, you know,
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3rd, 4th, 5th, sure I do. You know, that's a thing people
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do, that people actually do that.
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Well, there's nothing in law that says that we have to do
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anything with that ballot, anything specific.
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So the Secretary of State has issued a rule that says that if
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you skip a ballot or skip, skip around, excuse me, on your
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ballot, that you will have your next vote over moved forward.
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So your third choice is really a second choice.
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So we'll just skip ahead to that one and we'll say that's your
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next vote. Yeah, they just decided that
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that's just, that's just what they do.
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And maybe that's the smartest thing or the best thing or
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whatever, but they just do it. They've decided that we're going
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to not actually take what you marked on your ballot, you know,
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and we'll say that it's actually going to be what's in your in
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your second choice column, even though you put it in your third.
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But if you skip 2, if you go from one, skip two and three and
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then go to 4, they will imagine that you never voted in the
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third round, didn't slide it ahead and therefore you're
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exhausted, even though you did mark something in later rounds.
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And yes, people have done that. And why, why is that the rule?
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Because they decided so it's a rule.
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It's it's a, it's part of the rule making process inside Maine
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State government in the Secretary of State's office for
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how they did this. And it was Matt Dunlap
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ultimately, they did this, by the way, but that's just how
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they treat it. So depending on what you mark
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and how, you can make a variety of mistakes that ultimately make
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your ballot go in the trash. Now, can you bullet vote across?
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Yes. Will it invalidate your ballot?
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No. Does it do anything different
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than just marking the first one? No, except for the fact that it
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obviously leaves no doubt about your vote for anybody that would
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be recounting it. And it also prevents any
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possibility of any high jinks later on.
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If you really think somebody's taking out a black pen and
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marking stuff and you leave bubbles open and stuff, you
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know, you, you have not left bubbles open because you crossed
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it across. So there's nothing wrong with
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doing it, but it's just in terms of tactically how the computer
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counts it, it doesn't matter. Doesn't ultimately matter.
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Now, what do I recommend you do? And then I'll go to a call or
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two here. I recommend you rank.
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I hate it. I hate it.
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I would, you know what my real recommendation is?
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Kill rank choice voting. Vote for people that hate it and
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want to destroy it so that it's never a thing again and I don't
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have to actually ever do this segment again.
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That would be nice. But while it exists, if you
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don't rank, you are surrendering your vote in any round that you
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don't participate in, and other people will be getting 2nd and
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3rd and 4th choices in that race.
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So do you want to hand the authority and the power to
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people who make those second and third choices, giving them
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multiple bites of the apple while you only have one?
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Or do you want to fight on even terms?
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As much as I hate it, I would say that I refuse to allow my
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vote and my voice to be thrown in the trash heap.
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So, annoyed as I will be, I will rank.
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Let me go to Dennis from Casco and I'll take a break.
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Dennis, how are you? Matt, I'm fine.
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I appreciate it. Thank you.
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I I have a rank choice voting question, but a incredibly quick
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Star Trek saying you have to rewatch quote the ultimate
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computer from the OGI. Just watched it last night and
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it's amazing how how much it mirrors AI coming.
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I'm sure you remember it. I do indeed.
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Please, you should rewatch it. So I never understood how the
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rank choice voting favors the the liberals.
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I know I've heard it before, but I can't remember.
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Like, can you go over that real quick?
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I don't understand how it just favors them, you know, all the
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same, I mean, but so if you could explain that, I'd
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appreciate it and I'll, I'll let you go.
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Indeed, the Yeah, No, by the way, that that episode you're
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talking about, Dennis, the ultimate computer.
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That was the first appearance of Richard Dystrom, who ultimately
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became the namesake of the Dystrom Institute, which is a
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very famous thing in Star Trek. Anyway, the answer quickly, in
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terms of how does it benefit the left, is that it doesn't by
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design. There's nothing about it that
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says, oh, the the Republicans are screwed and the the liberals
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and the Democrats are, are benefited.
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In terms of the actual structure of the system, it's a de facto
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benefit. And by that I mean that it
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generally speaking strengthens the larger party in the area
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it's used. So if you were to use this in
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Alabama, it would actually strengthen the Republicans.
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If you were to use it in Florida, it would be the
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Republicans or Texas, it would be the Republicans.
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If you use it in the Northeast or California or you know,
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Illinois or something like that, then it would absolutely vote
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benefit the Democrats because ultimately what it does is it
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takes all possibilities of having like the minority
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representation possibly winning. Like, you know, LePage won with
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the, you know, 3839% of the vote in 2010.
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And, and would that have happened if the Libby Mitchell
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people had an opportunity to vote a second time and
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retabulated towards Elliott Cutler?
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Would he have been elected? I think there's an intelligent
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case to be made that Le Page still wins that, but it's
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certainly much more likely. I think that color would have
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ultimately benefited in that kind of a system because it
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ultimately takes the lack of support that the majority party
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made have because of a crummy candidate, a bad campaign or
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something else and bait makes up for it with additional
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opportunities for those voters to not throw their vote away.
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And that just strengthens the majority.
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And if that's what you like, you want to just have authoritarian,
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majoritarian rule, then well, this is your system, my friends.
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So that's the quick answer for you.
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Dennis. Incidentally, by the way, I
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didn't even mention, and maybe I should have covered more
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extensively while I was talking about RCV, but that little
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alliance that you saw formed on the progressive left in the
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Democratic primary between Shanna Bellows, Hannah Pingree
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and Troy Jackson, not near of Shaw and not Angus King, the
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3rd, just the three of them joining forces, joining hands,
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saying, look, we think we should win, but if it's not me, it
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should be one of those two. It is essentially the dream of
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what the ranked choice voting people have, you know, told us
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that this, this kind of alliance between groups is exactly the
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benefit of the system. It's why it's good.
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It means that, you know, you're going to have this really
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positive election, you know, which is, by the way, not true,
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but you're going to have this, you know, thing where people are
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actively telling people if they don't vote for me, vote for
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them. And it helps people make better
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decisions. And isn't that great?
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What it's really doing is it? It's now preventing the
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Democratic primary from ever going to a non progressive.
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See what I'm saying about the most dominant force mattering?
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Because in a ranked choice voting election inside the
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Democratic Party, the Republicans are irrelevant and
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the dominant force would be the ideology.
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What is the dominant ideology in the Democratic Party right now?
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The progressive ideology. And so they are guaranteeing
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that they will be having more votes than anyone else by using
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this system. And so they will win always.
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And you'll never have a moderate ever again.