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NZ Property Market 2025: Stabilization After the Storm · That Home Loan Hub

• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Kia ora and welcome back to the show.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: Today we're going to dive into a question on many Kiwis' minds Are house prices still worth it in 2025?
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Whether you're a first-time buyer, an investor or just keeping an eye on the market, let's unpack what's happening After a significant downturn.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Since the 2021 peak, when national house prices dropped nearly 18%.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: 2021 peak, when national house prices dropped nearly 18% We've seen signs of stabilization.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Look as of March 2025, the national average property prices actually rose slightly by 0.2% to $903,000.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: However, this remains 2.3% lower than the same period last year.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: In Auckland, the average house value dipped by 0.1% to 1.2 million, making the first negative quarter since October last year.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: So not good news for our Auckland buyers.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Well, good news for Auckland buyers, not for Auckland sellers.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: And not all regions are really experiencing the same trends.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: For instance, the Toa Oranga saw a modest increase of 0.4% to an average of $102 million, while the Queenstown Lakes District experienced a slight decrease of 0.1%, bringing it down to $1.81 million.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: That still blows my mind how Queenstown prices just out the gate.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: These variations highlight the importance of understanding the local market dynamics and looking ahead.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: Major banks have varying forecasts for house prices growth in 2025.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: So I looked against the four big banks ASB predicts a 9.4% increase, westpac anticipates a 7.19%, bnz forecasts a 6.8% growth and ANZ expects a 6% uptick.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: However, the Reserve Bank offers a more conservative estimate of 3.79.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: This projection suggests a cautious optimism, with expectations of modest growth rather than a rapid rebound, so we won't see anything crazy, like it happened in 2020.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Now what is actually influencing the market, you would ask.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: So several factors are influencing the housing market.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: One of them is the interest rates the Reserve Bank has reduced the interest rates by 175 basis points since August, aiming to stimulate the market after a near 20% decline from the 2021 peak and also supply and demand.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: So supply and demand persistent shortage of affordable housing continues to challenge the market, keeping prices elevated despite the recent downturn.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: So a lot of you will be asking me is it worth buying a house in 2025?
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Should we buy it?
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Should we just keep renting?
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: The answer depends on your personal circumstances.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: With prices stabilizing and interest rates lower, it could be an opportune time for buyers who are financially prepared.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: However, affordability remains a significant hurdle for many, especially first-time buyers, and especially in an unpredictable job market right now.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: So hey, that's a wrap on today's housing market update.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover, feel free to reach out.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: Until next time, stay informed and make smart financial decisions, and don't forget to come and join me on my webinar Thursday every fortnight.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: See you then.