Latest / Cardio Pod: Heart of the Matter / Importance of Subgroups in Heart Failure Clinical Trials - Part 2
Transcript
- 0:00Good morning, good afternoon, good evening.
- 0:08I'm Chris O'Connor, the principal investigator of the Heart Filler Collaboratory, and we're
- 0:13here with Heart of the Matter, which is the HFC podcast.
- 0:18And I'm with my very distinguished friends and colleagues to talk about an exciting session
- 0:22that we had last week on subgroups and subpopulations, special populations, and really how do we
- 0:29handle these in clinical trials today?
- 0:33And I want to just introduce my distinguished colleagues before we jump into the heart of
- 0:39the matter of subgroups.
- 0:40Bill Abraham, who is a professor at Ohio State University, Joanne Lindenfeld, professor at
- 0:46Vanderbilt University, Scott Solomon, professor at Harvard Medical School, Brian Claggett,
- 0:53senior statistician at Harvard, and Mitch Sopka, chief of Heart Filler at the NOVA Health
- 0:59System, and Mona Fusat, who is a member of the Duke University faculty and also a member
- 1:06of the Food and Drug Administration.
- 1:09Welcome all to Heart of the Matter.
- 1:11We had this session on Friday where we talked about subgroups and special populations, and
- 1:17really we talked about, first of all, terminology, which is so important in clinical trial conduct.
- 1:23And when we got a group together and said, okay, these terms are different and they matter.
- 1:31And when we talk about subgroups, we're talking about characteristics in a clinical trial
- 1:36population that can be measured and that can be organized in a fashion for a particular
- 1:43analysis.
- 1:44And so when we talk about subgroups, we're talking about characteristics such as age,
- 1:48ejection fraction, maybe biomarkers, natriuretic peptides, they could be a genetic profile,
- 1:55they could be comorbidities such as the presence or absence of diabetes, but they are different
- 2:00than when we talk about special populations such as cardiac amyloidosis, hypertrophic
- 2:05cardiomyopathy, and genetic cardiomyopathies in which there are actually a pre-specified
- 2:12hypothesis on why that population of patients may respond differently or uniquely in a clinical
- 2:21trial.
- 2:22And so I think as we start this conversation, we want to make sure that we understand the
- 2:28difference between subgroups and special populations.
- 2:33And I'll turn to Scott Solomon to make some of the first comments on, you know, we've
- 2:38done a large number of trials, many of us in this room have been involved in many trials,
- 2:45and we conduct a trial, we try it, we set up a pre-specified subgroups, usually 10 or
- 2:51so that we're going to do an analysis on.
- 2:54And then we come to the end of the trial and we look at these and some are interesting
- 2:59and some are not, but how do we get more rigor in thinking about subgroups and how do we
- 3:08prioritize ones that may be of particular interest to the audience?
- 3:14Yeah, Chris, that's a great question.
- 3:17And when we tackle, I think on Friday to a large extent, when we do a clinical trial,
- 3:26we usually are asking one particular question.
- 3:29That's our primary hypothesis.
- 3:32We're determining whether we can reject, essentially reject the null hypothesis for one specific
- 3:38question overall in that study.
- 3:42And then we, as you said, divide our population based on a whole lot of different groups,
- 3:51men and women, diabetes, no diabetes, older, younger, et cetera.
- 3:57We may have 10 of these or 15 of these or 20 of these in a trial.
- 4:01And then we usually report those data in our primary manuscript.
- 4:07We do that primarily to look for consistency.
- 4:12But occasionally we see evidence of heterogeneity.
- 4:16Occasionally we look at these data and we say, wow, the people with blue hair behave
- 4:21differently than the people with green hair.
- 4:25And we have to ask ourselves, is that a real finding?
- 4:30Is it statistically robust?
- 4:33What does it mean?
- 4:35What does it mean for the therapy that we're testing?
- 4:37And the implications are different, of course, if the trial is very positive or maybe marginal.
- 4:47It may be different based on the extent of the benefit that we see in a particular subgroup.
- 4:54And then the real question is, when do we really believe it?
- 4:57And can we believe it enough to act on it?
- 5:01Or do we have to go and do a whole nother trial?
- 5:06And so we presented data, we presented some concepts, some data from trials that we all
- 5:13know well on Friday that included three important heart failure trials, the Paradigm trial,
- 5:21the Paragon trial, both with Sucubitriol valsartan, and then the Galactic HF trial.
- 5:27And I guess we also presented some data from the Deliver trial as well.
- 5:33And I'm going to turn over in a second to Brian Claggett to describe these a little
- 5:39bit better because he presented these data and actually served as the primary statistician
- 5:44for most of these studies.
- 5:47But we have examples of a trial where all the subgroups look pretty much the same.
- 5:53And we have a trial where there are examples where the subgroups look different, where
- 6:00we wonder if in fact there's some group that works better than others.
- 6:06And these can be very different.
- 6:08And the interpretation can be very different.
- 6:10Brian?
- 6:11Yeah.
- 6:12I think our...
- 6:13I mean, our starting example is we showed Paragon and Paradigm.
- 6:16It was the same drug being investigated in both, just one in reduced EF heart failure,
- 6:22the other one in preserved EF.
- 6:24And we kind of started from the normal forest plot figures where you see all two dozen or
- 6:30three dozen or however many subgroups that you've got.
- 6:34And I guess our standard practice has been to do an interaction test for every subgroup
- 6:41variable and to...
- 6:43Maybe we get to include that on the forest plot.
- 6:45Maybe not, but you somehow report either there were this many number of significant interaction
- 6:52tests and then somebody afterwards has to decide how much they care about those p-values
- 6:58because invariably you'll find one or two that are a little bit below 0.05.
- 7:03And then it kind of becomes this clinical and statistical argument where if you found
- 7:09something that you didn't expect and we argue about, well, is it a false positive?
- 7:13Or if we didn't find something that we kind of did expect and we say, oh, well, we were
- 7:17underpowered.
- 7:18And if you did find something you did expect, then you can say, yeah, I knew that was exactly
- 7:23what was going to happen.
- 7:24But it's kind of a game that we play afterwards, but we don't really know exactly what we should
- 7:32be taking away from these forest plots.
- 7:35I think that's one issue that we need to get better about is how much we can expect to
- 7:40learn from these things, knowing that you are likely going to find something that looks
- 7:44significant and when you should react to that or not react to it.
- 7:48And so in paradigm, I think we broadly interpreted those results as very consistent benefit across
- 7:55all the subgroups.
- 7:56In paragon, we interpreted there as being some plausible, reasonable sense of heterogeneity,
- 8:04largely based on ejection fraction.
- 8:09And Brian, I think you nicely shared with the audience during that or our think tank
- 8:16the rigor you have to think about when you're looking at whether a signal is real or noise
- 8:23when you're looking at subgroups, which I think is just a mess.
- 8:27I always remember the ISIS one trial and Peter Sleitz saying that he showed that the thrombolytic
- 8:34therapy in an anchor aspirin, I think it was aspirin.
- 8:37It was a factorial design, had its highest effect in Sagittarius and its lowest effect
- 8:43in Aquarius because they tested for astrological signs.
- 8:47But they had done, like you said, hundreds of subgroups.
- 8:50And so what is the rigor that a clinical trial team must put around those interaction terms
- 9:01of those subgroups?
- 9:03Like you said, if you have O5, we get excited about an O5.
- 9:07I get excited about a 0.1 for an interaction term because it's so underpowered.
- 9:12But really when you've done 20 comparisons, Professor Bonferroni is going to turn over
- 9:20in his grave, right?
- 9:22Right.
- 9:23You're almost guaranteed to find something significant at that point, right?
- 9:26Yeah.
- 9:27No, I think usually in clinical trials, we kind of defer to type one error and say we
- 9:32want to go out of our way to avoid false positive findings.
- 9:36And so if something is underpowered, we say, well, that's too bad.
- 9:39You should have designed a bigger trial or design another trial.
- 9:43And if it's real, you'll find it again in the next study.
- 9:48And so I think type one error usually is our primary concern.
- 9:53And so one of the proposals, knowing that there's always this multiple testing issue
- 9:58when you go down your list of subgroups is there is this global interaction test that
- 10:04has been used a couple of times, in particular in Paragon.
- 10:09And we said, well, instead of going through and testing every single subgroup, why don't
- 10:13we do a single overall test for heterogeneity, for effect modification?
- 10:21And if you can pass that test at the 0.05 level, then you're at least allowed to continue
- 10:26on talking about people who respond better or worse than other people.
- 10:30But if you can't pass that first test, then we should just stop and not torture the data
- 10:35any further.
- 10:36So I think that was maybe the first thing that we can think about implementing and using
- 10:42as a way to gauge how much we should trust any of these findings.
- 10:47What about the fact that many of these subgroups that we look at are correlated with other
- 10:53subgroups so that when we look at them individually, we're only seeing one dimension.
- 10:59But often when we look at them together, we'll see that there may be, for example, more women
- 11:08in the high ejection fraction category or vice versa that might be actually what's driving
- 11:13the subgroup.
- 11:15And your approach that we took in Paragon, for example, where you used a multivariable
- 11:21model to include all the interaction terms and the covariates does account for that,
- 11:29correct?
- 11:30Right.
- 11:31I think there's two possible scenarios, you can imagine.
- 11:34I know one scenario that comes up, we didn't talk about this on Friday, but occasionally
- 11:40you'll see regional interaction, right?
- 11:43Most studies have four or five geographic regions.
- 11:45It does appear to be something different by region.
- 11:48The explanation is always, well, it's not region.
- 11:51It's that the BMI was different or this region enrolled younger patients.
- 11:56It's always that that's a confounder or masking something else.
- 12:00And so if you do have all the variables in the same model, in theory, that regional effect
- 12:06would go away and it would be more present in whatever variable is actually responsible
- 12:11for the difference.
- 12:13In Paragon, we kind of had the opposite example where we had two potential effect modifiers.
- 12:19We had sex and we had EF.
- 12:22And so conceivably it could have been that, you know, knowing that these two things are
- 12:25correlated with one another, maybe they were both appearing marginally significant, but
- 12:30the signal was actually being driven by one more than the other.
- 12:34It turned out that it was actually both were independently more significant that the women
- 12:41in the trial in Paragon generally had higher EFs, the men had lower EFs, and that when
- 12:48you put both in the model, you could see that it was women were responding better despite
- 12:52their higher EFs.
- 12:54Patients with lower EFs were responding better despite being a more male-dominated cohort.
- 13:00And so it was really by putting both in the same model that you had more confidence in
- 13:05both of those findings.
- 13:07The other thing we learned from that exercise was that when we categorize some of these
- 13:17things that are essentially continuous measures, we lose power.
- 13:22And when you look at them continuously, like ejection fraction, you end up gaining power.
- 13:30And so one of the tricks would be to look at the continuous variables, things like ejection
- 13:37fraction, GFR, age, as continuous variables rather than as categorical arbitrarily cut
- 13:46variables.
- 13:47I like that.
- 13:48I mean, I think we're getting to a place where we can standardize the approach, which is,
- 13:55I think, what your team has done, but it's not done uniformly.
- 13:59Let's pretend that we are an advisory panel with Dr. Abraham and Dr. Lindenfeld, and the
- 14:07regulators are Dr. Fusat and Dr. Sopka, and Dr. Claggett and Dr. Solomon are the investigators.
- 14:15They came to you with Paragon, their heart filler preserved EF trial, finished with an
- 14:20overall P value on the primary endpoint of.06.
- 14:24Brian did this fancy-.058.
- 14:26.058, please.
- 14:27.058.
- 14:28.058.
- 14:29Don't make a trauma any worse than it was.
- 14:33.058.
- 14:34And Scott has a t-shirt in that room in his office somewhere that has that.
- 14:41And Brian did this fancy global test on the subgroups, and it was highly statistically
- 14:48significant, the global, so he went down and they found that sex and EF were, the interaction
- 14:55terms were highly important and that there was more effect in greater signal on the lower
- 15:01end of preserved EF and women.
- 15:06And they got a label enhancement based on that.06.
- 15:12Now Joanne and Bill, how do you feel about that?
- 15:17They had a negative trial.
- 15:21Brian comes in with all this fancy hoopla, statistics and global chunk tests and this
- 15:26way and that way, and before we know it, there's a label enhancement.
- 15:32Yeah.
- 15:33Do you think they got it right?
- 15:37After looking at it, I think they got it right, but I think there's always a little bit of
- 15:41question when you have an initially negative trial.
- 15:45But I think other data sort of supports it, and as we look for other supports and other
- 15:49studies, I think we see more support of that.
- 15:52So I think as we see other things, like for instance with the mineralic corticoid receptor
- 15:58antagonists and other things that sort of look similarly, then we start to believe it even
- 16:03more.
- 16:04Yeah.
- 16:05I think for me, Chris, the challenge is in the biological plausibility.
- 16:10And we see some agents that are effective in the HEP-PEP population across the full
- 16:15spectrum of HEP-PEP ejection fractions like STLT2 inhibitors.
- 16:20And then we see others such as an ARNI or perhaps a mineralic corticoid receptor antagonist
- 16:27that seems to demonstrate diminishing returns with the increasing ejection fraction.
- 16:33And I think without a confirmatory study, we've really got to put this together in some
- 16:39biologically plausible story.
- 16:41That may exist.
- 16:42Some have advanced it, but that is one of the potential, I think for me, prerequisites
- 16:48of interpreting subgroup analysis is to understand whether or not this is founded in some biological
- 16:56reality.
- 16:57Well, you know, Chris, I would make an argument that we shouldn't probably use such a binary
- 17:05term like positive or negative study.
- 17:09The difference between a p-value of 0.06 and 0.04 is negligible.
- 17:18We're really talking about a few events on either side.
- 17:21So to argue that if we had had seven, it would have been seven more events going the other
- 17:28way in this trial with thousands of events, we would have had a quote unquote positive
- 17:34trial, everything would have been different.
- 17:37That doesn't make a whole lot of scientific sense.
- 17:40But I think what is clear is that this wasn't an incredibly robust treatment effect in the
- 17:51Paragon trial.
- 17:53And the reason we think that was the case is because it worked better in some people
- 17:57than others.
- 17:58I think the plausibility thing was so important there because it wasn't just about the statistics.
- 18:04It was about the fact that we had just done another 8,500 patient trial called Paradigm
- 18:10in Heart Cellular with reduced ejection fraction that was the adjacent population.
- 18:15So everything kind of kept going as you went up in ejection fraction.
- 18:20We had seen the exact same thing with mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists in TopCAD and Candesartan
- 18:27in the CHARM trial.
- 18:28So neurohormonal agents that petered out as ejection fraction went up.
- 18:34And so I think if it were just the statistics, I would agree 100% that we really have to
- 18:41be very circumspect about that.
- 18:45When we saw that result, we got very nervous about the trial that was ongoing at the time
- 18:49we were doing called Deliver with the SGLT2 inhibitor Dapagliflozin.
- 18:54And so what we ended up doing was changing the primary endpoint to split alpha between
- 19:02the patients in the overall group and the patients in the subgroup with an ejection
- 19:06fraction under 60%.
- 19:09We were able to divide the alpha between those two groups.
- 19:12And then we thought we were so clever having done this, and it turned out not to matter
- 19:18at all.
- 19:20The benefit did go across the spectrum.
- 19:23And Bill, I don't know why that is the case with SGLT2 inhibitors, but they're not neurohormonal
- 19:29modulators.
- 19:30They're certainly different types of drugs.
- 19:33And I believe behave differently from the vasodilator neurohormonal type drugs that
- 19:40we've been using for so many years.
- 19:43But that is one way you could prospectively do that.
- 19:47You can choose a subgroup and then apply some alpha.
- 19:52And Brian also presented some suggestions for how you might do that, either by being
- 19:58really smart and knowing which subgroup you want to choose, or by doing it more agnostically
- 20:04and ascribing some alpha to some heterogeneity and then figuring out after the fact where
- 20:10that heterogeneity actually exists.
- 20:12Yeah, look, I think in the case of paradigm paragon, the totality of data, including a
- 20:19P value of 0.058, really favored approval.
- 20:24And I would have voted for approval on that basis without all of the subgroup analyses
- 20:28anyway.
- 20:30I think we have to look at the big picture in these clinical trials as we think about
- 20:35their outcome, particularly in HEPPF where there is a large unmet need and few proven
- 20:42therapies that improve outcomes.
- 20:46And Mitch and Mona, the regulatory viewpoint, did Scott get that correct?
- 20:52I'm going to defer to Mitch on this.
- 20:59I'm going to put on a hat that is mostly regulatory and say that in this case, in the case of
- 21:07succubitol valcartan, there were a number of things going for it that were not just
- 21:12the subgroup.
- 21:13As was mentioned, it was an adjacent population, although there was a five percentage point
- 21:18ejection fraction range that was left out, but there was a closely adjacent population.
- 21:25But I think also very supportive were the re-adjudication analyses, the primary adjudication
- 21:31by the trial site PIs was supportive and then the blinded re-adjudication was very supportive.
- 21:37And I actually think that that was probably more of what drove the ship than the fact
- 21:43that it was a subgroup or anything else.
- 21:47I think that it was viewed overall as a positive trial once those re-adjudication procedures
- 21:54were put in place.
- 21:56I do think that all the other supportive data was very helpful that you saw a consistent
- 22:01trend and all these issues, but I think truly it was that the trial was probably considered
- 22:08to be positive overall actually, much more in line with what Bill mentioned, I think
- 22:13then that there was some cohesive way to view this subgroup analysis as opposed to all others
- 22:21where we would typically want another trial to prove that it was truly effective in the
- 22:26subgroup.
- 22:27Well, and look, the FDA didn't restrict the expanded label for the higher EF group, right?
- 22:34And I think that speaks volumes to really what influenced FDA's decision.
- 22:39And that's in contrast to, for example, and we also talked about this during the workshop,
- 22:46the Maid It CRT trial, which looked at the heterogeneity in response introduced by cure
- 22:54restoration and QRS morphology, and both supported from the data analysis and also from the standpoint
- 23:04of biological plausibility, that is, how does one postulate CRT or resynchronization therapy
- 23:11improving patients with, for example, a pure right bundle branch block?
- 23:16Mechanistically, it's a bit of a stretch to think about how that might work.
- 23:21And so the data and the biological plausibility fell together, and in fact, the label acknowledged
- 23:28that limitation.
- 23:30But let's dive into that one.
- 23:32Thanks for bringing that up, Bill, because that was the other really fascinating trial
- 23:36that we discussed.
- 23:37And Joanne, you were part of that initiative.
- 23:41Maid It CRT, give us a little bit of an overview.
- 23:44You studied over a thousand patients.
- 23:47You had a very positive effect in class 2, 3 heart failure on the endpoint of heart failure
- 23:53events plus mortality, all driven by heart failure events.
- 23:58And then the company and the leadership said there's a subgroup where the signal is even
- 24:04greater, even though it was like 0.006, I think, in a hazard ratio, it was pretty strong
- 24:11on the primary.
- 24:12And we want to even narrow it further to the QRS greater than 150, which was about 40%
- 24:20of the population.
- 24:21And that's where it landed.
- 24:23Joanne Yeah.
- 24:24I think in the presentation that wasn't initially the company prior to the presentation wanted
- 24:28to present those data and narrow the indication.
- 24:30And the FDA and their wisdom and their frequently right said, no, we don't want you to narrow
- 24:34it.
- 24:35You can present it all, but we don't want you to narrow it.
- 24:38So I think that was how it was presented.
- 24:40And I think as we discussed, there's still some questions about that.
- 24:44But I think overall other data has suggested, in addition to, as Bill said, the biologic
- 24:48plausibility of left bundle, clearly that is the group that benefits the most.
- 24:52But there are probably other benefits, but the group that benefits the most.
- 24:57Bill But you know, interestingly, that was not even
- 24:59a pre-specified subgroup for Maitrecy.
- 25:01Joanne Yeah, it wasn't.
- 25:02Absolutely.
- 25:03Bill That was a post-hoc finding.
- 25:05Bill Oh, Maitrecy, I didn't realize that, that's amazing.
- 25:10And it didn't come out in their primary presentation and paper, it came out subsequently.
- 25:14Joanne Well, the panel asked, they didn't present
- 25:16the data even to the FDA, the panel asked that to present those data.
- 25:22But the p-value for that subgroup was very small.
- 25:27Bill Right.
- 25:28Now, Dr. Fusai, you asked the think tank panel to vote on that, whether they would approve
- 25:35CRT for the overall population, yes, no, or would they approve it for just the subgroup
- 25:42QRS greater than 150?
- 25:45And do you remember what that vote count was?
- 25:48Joanne I think the majority went with the whole population.
- 25:52Bill They did, they did.
- 25:54And I think Brian raised his hand for the overall population.
- 25:58I'm not sure about that.
- 26:00You're a subgroup guy, Brian?
- 26:04You like subgroups?
- 26:05Joanne I do, yeah.
- 26:06Bill Why did you vote just for subgroup?
- 26:10Joanne No, I mean, I think if heterogeneity is there,
- 26:14we should care about it regardless of whether the trial was overall positive or overall
- 26:18marginal or overall neutral.
- 26:20And I think, I don't know, I feel like part of the problem that we've gotten into is that
- 26:24there are some scenarios where we don't talk about subgroups or we don't talk about heterogeneity
- 26:29at all.
- 26:30And that means that we only talk about it when there's a borderline trial and that gives
- 26:35the whole bad reputation to subgroups as a whole because it feels like it's something
- 26:39that we're trying to claw back a non-significant or a neutral study.
- 26:46And I think we should always care about heterogeneity.
- 26:49Bill And Chris, are we not trying to do a better
- 26:54job with personalized medicine and cardiology?
- 26:58We don't really.
- 27:00Most of our trials, most of our therapies are based on fairly broad populations, but
- 27:06I think we really do have to start thinking about which patients are going to gain the
- 27:11most benefit from the drugs that we use.
- 27:14We could probably go back and look at this with lots of the therapies that we've used
- 27:18for the last 20, 25 years and there are probably people who are going to benefit a lot more
- 27:24than others and maybe be harmed less than others because these aren't always benign
- 27:30therapies.
- 27:31Chris Yeah, I think I'm sorry, Chris.
- 27:33Bill Oh, go ahead, Bill.
- 27:35Yeah.
- 27:36Yeah, I was just going to pose the question, you know, when are confirmatory trials really
- 27:43appropriate here?
- 27:45We may be limiting effective therapies for patients who may benefit and in other cases,
- 27:53you know, we might declare a trial negative when there is a large positive subgroup that
- 27:59could potentially benefit in the future.
- 28:01So you know, whether the overall trial is positive or negative, you know, what do we
- 28:07do with these subgroups and do we draw firm conclusions or do we do more trials?
- 28:13And I understand that there may be a limited number of trials that we can do, but you know,
- 28:18I guess I would ask for both the clinical and the statistical view of this, is the subgroup
- 28:22data ever strong enough to call a definitive?
- 28:26Well, that's, I think you've really capsulized the question for the next podcast because
- 28:35we're not going to answer today for sure, but I really want to take a moment to thank
- 28:40our speakers and our discussion today.
- 28:43It was terrific.
- 28:45And if we take one point away from this, I think is could we standardize the approach
- 28:51to subgroup analysis?
- 28:52And I think that's what Brian really pushed forth in our session on Friday.
- 28:57And I'd like to see us advance that as a collaborative initiative.
- 29:02But more to come on subgroups.
- 29:04Dr. Carson, we couldn't get you on.
- 29:07You're driving, I know, but we're going to bring you back to talk about the V-Hef to
- 29:12A-Hef story, which is a 30-minute story in and of itself.
- 29:17And we want to make sure that we actually get to see you and not Sammy driving your
- 29:21Tesla.
- 29:22So thank you all for being here this afternoon and have a great day.
- 29:26Thank you.
- 29:27See you.