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Week 13 2025 College Football Picks for the 10 Biggest Games! · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

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  Speaker 1: Only two more weeks left of the twenty twenty five
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: college football season. It's week thirteen and we've got the
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  Speaker 1: ten best games of the weekend that we're gonna make
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  Speaker 1: predictions on.
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  Speaker 2: Crackers, eight Lovely Jesus, seven sheets of rappings, six stucking finlers.
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  Speaker 7: Fine, You're super easy, super.
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  Speaker 1: Market Welcome in Winning Cures Everything. It's a college football podcast.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: I'm your host, Gary Seekers at Gary WCE on all
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: the different socials, most active on X. You guys ought
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: to know this by now. We've got ten games that
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: we're gonna be discussing today and I called them the
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  Speaker 1: ten best games. It's kind of hit or miss this weekend.
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  Speaker 1: This is not exactly the most filled weekend that we've had,
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  Speaker 1: but you know, there's still some important games, some games
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  Speaker 1: that if the higher rated team are the favorite loses,
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  Speaker 1: could certainly affect the playoff race. So there are big
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  Speaker 1: things at stake this weekend, just not as many big games,
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: big name teams as usual. Next week, everybody's on display,
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: everybody's going to be involved, So we got a lot
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  Speaker 1: to discuss. Don't forget. Subscribe to the channel, like the video,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: jump in the comments with your picks, and check out
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: buying ma Cooffee dot com Slash Winning Cures. But for now,
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  Speaker 1: let's get through games. Game number one, eleven AM Central Time,
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  Speaker 1: God's Time Zone on ABC, Missouri visits Oklahoma Boomer sooner
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  Speaker 1: with a massive, massive win last week in Tuscaloosa, Missouri
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  Speaker 1: of course got off the mat after not looking so
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  Speaker 1: good against Texas A and M, and they put forty
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  Speaker 1: nine on Mississippi State last week, so the offense got rolling.
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  Speaker 1: Things are looking pretty good for the Tigers there. They're
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  Speaker 1: now seven and three overall. Right now, Oklahoma in eight
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  Speaker 1: and a half to nine and a half point favorite
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  Speaker 1: depending on which book total of forty two and a
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  Speaker 1: half on this one, and let's jump into the stats here,
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  Speaker 1: Oklahoma I would have a projected stats favorite of a
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  Speaker 1: little less than seven points. Power rating has Oklahoma by
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  Speaker 1: eight point two the last four weeks, though only has
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma by three point seven two. Oklahoma has won the
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  Speaker 1: last two games, but their yards per play difference has
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: been way back. Right, Tennessee moved the ball that will
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  Speaker 1: on them, but turn the ball over. Alabama moved the
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  Speaker 1: ball that will on them, turn the ball over. Oklahoma
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  Speaker 1: special teams wise number eighteen in special teams efficiency, Missouri
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  Speaker 1: is number one thirteen, so that could certainly go in
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  Speaker 1: Oklahoma's favor again. But Oklahoma with their pump returns with
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  Speaker 1: I mean Tate Sandel is just an absolute weapon. He
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  Speaker 1: hits from anywhere on the field. It's really remarkable how
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  Speaker 1: accurate he is. Looking at overall numbers Oklahoma number twenty
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  Speaker 1: nine in PPA margin. Missouri is number twelve in PBA margin.
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  Speaker 1: That Missouri defense is pretty good, number eleven in success
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  Speaker 1: rate allowed. Oklahoma is number two in defensive success rate allowed.
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  Speaker 1: Missouri on offense number twenty in offensive success rate. Now,
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  Speaker 1: I don't know that they're going to be quite that
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  Speaker 1: with Zoalor's the new freshman quarterback in especially against this
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  Speaker 1: Oklahoma defense. Oklahoma's offense number fifty seven in offensive success rate.
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  Speaker 1: They're number eighty seven and PPA per drive. Interesting game,
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  Speaker 1: very very interesting game. Both of these teams number eighty
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  Speaker 1: eight in turnover margin, which is interesting considering they were
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  Speaker 1: they're plus in the last two games. But you know,
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  Speaker 1: at Missouri number twenty four penalties per game. Oklahoma is
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  Speaker 1: number ninety nine in penalties per game, so not out
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  Speaker 1: there exactly. Oklahoma is number one in offensive red zone
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  Speaker 1: conversion percentage, but their number one hundred in red zone
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  Speaker 1: appearances per game. They're number nineteen in touchdown rate. But
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  Speaker 1: then being number one just goes ahead and shows you
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  Speaker 1: that they are really really good at hitting field goals
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  Speaker 1: whenever they get in range. Oklahoma won three and one
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  Speaker 1: against the spread at home this year. They are minus
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  Speaker 1: three point five margin there, Missouri one and one against
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  Speaker 1: the spread. On the road, they are plus point five points,
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  Speaker 1: so they play a little bit better than expected on
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  Speaker 1: the road. Five factors rank just overall efficiency and whatnot.
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  Speaker 1: Oklahoma is number one in the country, Missouri is number seventeen.
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  Speaker 1: So these are two top twenty teams that are going
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  Speaker 1: at it, and yet Oklahoma is almost a double digit favorite.
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  Speaker 1: It's a weird schedule spot too for Oklahoma. Missouri has
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  Speaker 1: Arkansas next week. Oklahoma has the LSU next week. But Oklahoma,
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  Speaker 1: coming off of two straight road games in Knoxville in Tuscaloosa,
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  Speaker 1: Missouri got walloped by Texas A and M after our
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  Speaker 1: bye week and then last week absolutely put a beating
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  Speaker 1: on Mississippi State. Got some confidence back heading into this
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  Speaker 1: game in Norman. So let's look at when Oklahoma has
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  Speaker 1: the ball. They are number sixty two and points for
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  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity. Missouri's defense is number ninety five, so Missouri
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  Speaker 1: is not great at defending drives like keeping you out
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  Speaker 1: of the end zone. But Oklahoma number fifty eight and
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  Speaker 1: scoring opportunities per game that's getting a first down inside
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  Speaker 1: the opponent forty. Missouri is number twenty seven in scoring
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  Speaker 1: opportunities allowed per game, so only four point five to
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  Speaker 1: six drives per game do they allow the opponent to
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  Speaker 1: get a first down inside their forty yard line. Missouri
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  Speaker 1: is good against the pass, they are good against the run,
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  Speaker 1: and Oklahoma is mediocre at best at both of them.
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  Speaker 1: They're not great passing it. Running the ball okay, especially
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  Speaker 1: with John Mattier, they might be able to do some
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  Speaker 1: things there, but eh, not great for Oklahoma's offense. But
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  Speaker 1: the defense can create that is certainly a big thing.
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  Speaker 1: They are number fourteen in PPA allowed per pass. They
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  Speaker 1: are number eight in PPA allowed to rush. What can
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  Speaker 1: Missouri do offensively to move the football on him? That's
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  Speaker 1: gonna be the question because Oklahoma's number one and rushing
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  Speaker 1: success rate allowed, Missouri is number ten, and Missouri runs
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  Speaker 1: the ball almost fifty six percent of the time. So
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  Speaker 1: will they continue to do this? Will they? You know,
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  Speaker 1: we'll see. But that defensive line for Oklahoma is for real.
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  Speaker 1: First half point margin Oklahoma number sixteen, Missouri number forty five.
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  Speaker 1: Second half point margin Oklahoma number twenty six, Missouri number
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  Speaker 1: twenty two. Both of these teams are five and four
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  Speaker 1: against the spread right now, I'm I think this might
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  Speaker 1: be too many points. Like I think that the number
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  Speaker 1: is inflated because of the fact that Missouri has a
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  Speaker 1: freshman quarterback and obviously freshman quarterback first start on the road.
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  Speaker 1: That's certainly not good. But the scheduling spot is weird
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  Speaker 1: for Oklahoma as they've got LSU next week and then
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  Speaker 1: they just came off of Tennessee and Alabama on the road.
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  Speaker 1: How emotionally up for this game are they? It's a
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  Speaker 1: good question. I think. I think Missouri's defense comes to
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  Speaker 1: play here. I think nine and a half just to
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  Speaker 1: touch too much. If this thing gets to ten, I
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  Speaker 1: will certainly play back the other way. But this is
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  Speaker 1: not Texas A and M that we're talking about. Oklahoma
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  Speaker 1: is good, but when they got out gained by Alabama
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  Speaker 1: basically two to one, and if the turnovers don't go
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  Speaker 1: their direction, if they don't get a punp return, if
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  Speaker 1: they don't hit every field goal, they don't win that game.
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  Speaker 1: The margin is slim for them. And you're not talking
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  Speaker 1: about a huge talent gap here. Oklahoma number thirteen and
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  Speaker 1: overall talent rank Missouri number nineteen. I'm gonna take the
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  Speaker 1: Tigers here. Give me Missouri plus nine and a half
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  Speaker 1: to keep this around a touchdown or so. Game number two,
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  Speaker 1: eleven am Central Time on ESBN two, Louisville heads two SMU.
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  Speaker 1: SMU favored by three to three and a half depending
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  Speaker 1: on the book at home total of fifty two and
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  Speaker 1: a half to fifty three and a half. And what
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  Speaker 1: an interesting spot. Louisville loses to col then they lose
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  Speaker 1: at home to Clemson last week, and now they go
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  Speaker 1: on the road where they appear to be more comfortable.
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  Speaker 1: They are three and zero against the spread on the
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  Speaker 1: road plus six point two. SMU got the big home
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  Speaker 1: win against Miami, but they are two and three against
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  Speaker 1: the spread at home minus two point six, so they
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  Speaker 1: do not play as well at home for whatever reason. Louisville,
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  Speaker 1: on the other hand, way better on the road. Don't
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  Speaker 1: know how that happens, but we'll we'll take it. We'll see,
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  Speaker 1: all right when SMU is well, let's look at PBA
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  Speaker 1: margin whatnot. People haven't really paid attention to SMU. There's
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: seven and three straight up this year, same as Louisville.
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  Speaker 1: Only one loss in the ACC so far. Very interesting,
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  Speaker 1: but yeah, one loss in the ACC, number fifteen in
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  Speaker 1: PPA margin. The defense is stealing the show. They are
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  Speaker 1: fantastic against the run, number three in PPA allowed per rush,
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  Speaker 1: number ten in yards allowed per rush. They are number
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  Speaker 1: twenty in rushing success allowed, number fifteen rushing explosively. I
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  Speaker 1: mean they are. They got a good defensive line. They
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  Speaker 1: are really good, really good against the run. You can
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  Speaker 1: throw the ball on them. I don't know that I
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: trust Louisville to be able to throw the ball on anybody.
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  Speaker 1: Right now. They're number one fifteen and PBA per pass.
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  Speaker 1: Louisville likes to run it more. I don't know that
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  Speaker 1: they're going to be able to do that against SMU,
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  Speaker 1: but we'll see. We will see. So the numbers power
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  Speaker 1: rating has SMU minus three and a half. The projected
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  Speaker 1: stat spread has SMU minus five and a half. The
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  Speaker 1: last four weeks would have SMU minus ten and a half.
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  Speaker 1: Louisville has not looked very good at all in the
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  Speaker 1: past few weeks. SMU again number fifteen PPA margin. Louisville
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  Speaker 1: is number thirty three. Both of these teams, the defense
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: is better than the offense. SMU not very good at
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  Speaker 1: running the football. The strength of Louisville's defense is against
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: the pass. SMU is number seventy five in interceptions thrown
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: per pass attempt. Louisville is number seventeen and interceptions gained
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  Speaker 1: per pass attempt defended. That's gonna be something to pay
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  Speaker 1: attention to. Louisville better in special teams efficiency, SMU is
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: number ninety five, the Cardinals are number sixty four. Both
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: of these teams inside the top thirty five and overall
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: talent rank. Turnover margin SMU is number five, but they
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: are number ninety six and giveaways per game. They're number
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: one in takeaways per game. Louisville is number ninety six
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: and giveaways per game as well, but they are number
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: twenty one in takeaways per game. So how many turnovers
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: do we actually get in a game like this. We've
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: seen some of these games where both teams end up
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: with three or four turnovers and it just becomes a
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: battle of wills at that point. Five factors rank, Louisville
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: is actually better number thirty nine. SMU is number fifty.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Y'all can't see that on the screen. There we go.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: First half point margin, SMU is significantly better. Second half
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Louisville is significantly better. So it could be a tale
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: of two halves. With these two teams, looking at who
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: can finish drives. SMU on offense number eighty three in
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity. Louisville is number thirty five. On
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: the other side, Louisville number eighty one in points per
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  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity. SMU's defense is number four. Who do I
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: trust more in a situation like this? Even though Louisville
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: is three to zero against the spread on the road
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: and SMU is two and three, this is a massive,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: massive spot for reht lash Land Company. I think this
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: is a good spot for SMU. They haven't had to
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: really focus on a team in a while. This is
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: one that they're going to be focused on, especially at home.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: You win this one, SMU can easily get to the
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: a SEC Championship game again. I'm gonna roll with SMU here.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: Give me the Mustangs minus three. That's the best number
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  Speaker 1: every game or every FBS versus FBS game, uh, every
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  Speaker 1: the weekend, the game of the day. On Saturday, USC
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: travels to Eugene, Oregon to take on the Ducks and
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: this one two thirty pm Central Time on CBS. Good gracious,
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: Oregon favored by eight and a half to nine and
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: a half depending on the book total of fifty nine
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: and a half to sixty and a half depending on
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: the book there as well, Good gracious. I don't know
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: why my database started doing this USC minus negative eight
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: and a half, which really should just be Oregon minus
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: eight and a half half. Uh So I got a
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: player around with that a little bit. But either way,
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: my status projected spread has Oregon by eleven point three
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: four the power rating has Oregon by eight. Last four
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: weeks would only have Oregon by less than one point.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: Oregon has not looked fantastic in the past. In the
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: past few weeks, I will say that, and yet I mean,
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: this is still a fantastic football team. Number three and
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: net points per play or sorry, net points per drive.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: They are number seven in offensive success rate, number seventeen
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: in defensive success rate. They are fantastic against the pass,
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: which is really what USC is best at. Like you
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: can say, well, they're number nine and PPA per rush
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: and number ten and yards per rush, the number five
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: and PPA per pass, number six and yards per pass attempt.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: But this team I believe is more suited to throw
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: the football now. Ja Maeva has not exactly looked killer
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: in the past few weeks, basically ever since the Notre
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: Dame game, but they keep finding ways to get it done.
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: So it is what it is, right, Oregon kind of
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: the same thing. They certainly certainly took Minnesota behind the
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: woodshed last week. You're looking at number one in net
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: explosiveness in Oregon, number twelve in USC, and that number
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: I think surprised some people when it first came out,
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: where Oregon is nearly favored or favored by double digits.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: This is a massive game for USC as well. But
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: Oregon being at home, I mean that's a big, big,
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: big spot. Oregon number thirty seven and special team's efficiency
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: USC is number fifty two. USC a much better field
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: goal kicking unit, but as far as kick returns, et cetera,
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: blocking punts, all that, Oregon is a little bit better
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: in that. Oregon a more talented overall team number seven
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: and overall talent at on three. USC has number seventeen
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: when Oregon has the football, number twenty four. In points
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity, USC is number thirty four. In points
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: allowed per scoring opportunity. The difference there is that USC
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: is number one thirty in allowing scoring opportunities per game,
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: that is when the opponent gets a first down inside
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: your forty yard line, and Oregon is number forty five
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: and scoring opportunities per game. So Oregon will have plenty
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: of chances once they get down there. And once they
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: get there, USC's defense number seven in red zone conversion percentage.
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: They are number fifty three in red zone touchdown rate.
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: Oregon's offense is number twenty one in red zone touchdown rate,
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: so you would imagine Oregon will be able to finish
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: drives when they get into position to do so. Interesting
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: Interesting for the Oregon defense is when USC is on offense,
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: they are number eleven in points per scoring opportunity. They
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: are number thirteen in scoring opportunities per game. Oregon is
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: only number two in scoring opportunities allowed per game, but
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: they are number fifty in points for scoring opportunity. They
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: are number one twenty six and defensive red zone touchdown rate,
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: so if USC can get down there, they should be
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: able to put up touchdowns instead of field goals just
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: tossing out there. Oregon is number four and five factors
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: rank USC is number eighteen, so in the overall things
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: that win football games, Oregon is better, although both of
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: them are inside the top twenty, so it could come
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: down to just a couple of plays here. I look
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: at this, and you know current strength the schedule is
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: number thirty six for USC, number thirty one for Oregon.
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: Oregon doesn't have any massive wins on the schedule, so
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: this game is gigantic for them. They can win this game,
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: have only one loss on the season and still not
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: make it to the Big Ten title game, but they
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: will almost certainly get a home playoff game if they
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: win this one. If they lose it, they might not
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: make the playoffs at all, even with two losses, because
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: then they would be stuck behind US, who also has
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: two losses. USC one and three against the spread on
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: the road minus three point three. Most of those are
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: when they go outside of their time zone. They do
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: not cover well in other time zones. This is in Eugene.
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: They should be comfortable with this one. Oregon four and
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: two against the spread at home plus three point eight,
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: so there is a little bit of a difference there.
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: I look at these two teams and I think we
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: might be overthinking it a little bit. I think that
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: Oregon is the significantly better team. I think that they
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: will put on a clinic here and USC. Yeah, they
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: were able to handle Michigan at home. I don't think
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: this Oregon team is Michigan. Oregon is significantly faster. I
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: think that they've got enough people back from injury. I
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: think they're going to be just fine. The best number
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: I can get is eight and a half. I will
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: take the Ducks minus eight and a half. Number four.
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: Two thirty pm Central Time, God's Time Zone on ABC,
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: the Arkansas Razorbacks, still sitting at only two wins on
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: the season. They are headed to the Texas Longhorns, who
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: absolutely got housed last week at Georgia. Arkansas two and
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: eight straight up, and yet they are power rated number
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: twenty eight in the country because they are plus eighteen
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: point differential on the season. That is just crazy to
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: think about. Thirty four point one to zero offensive points
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: per game, thirty two point three to zero defensive points
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: per game. They lose in some of the most inexplicable
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: ways possible. There's a huge discrepancy in turnover margin here.
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: Arkansas number one, thirty in turnover margin, Texas is number twelve.
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: Texas does not turn the football over number eight and
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: giveaways per game Arkansas is number one twenty three and
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: giveaways per game. Arkansas can generate a turnover number one
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: nineteen and takeaways per game. Texas is number thirty in
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: takeaways per game. So you would have to imagine at
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: some point Arkansas is going to turn the football over here,
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: which is why this number is out to nine and
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: a half or ten Texas favored nine and a half
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: to ten depending on the book, fifty five and a
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: half to fifty six and a half for the total
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: depending on the book. Arkansas, I mean can't stop a
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: nosebleed on defense, it feels like, but Texas's offense isn't
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: exactly great. They can't run the football, and when you
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: can't run the football you rely on passing. It bad
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: news for Arkansas. They can't stop the pass either. There
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: are number fifty eight and a havoc. Texas is number
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: seventy three and havoc allowed. So if you can get
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: after arch Manning, maybe you can make him make a mistake.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: They just haven't really done that all year. So it
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: is what it is. It's a very tough one to
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: figure out exactly where the motivations lie Arkansas, I think
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: once that first win for Bobby Petrino, so they are
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: they're going to go at it on offense. And this
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: Texas defense is still really good. They're not great against
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: the pass. They're number seventy two in QBR allowed. They
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: are number forty two in passing explosiveness allowed, number sixty
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: three in passing success allowed, and Arkansas is number twenty
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: five in PPAPRI pass number eighteen in yards per attempt,
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: number thirty four in QBR, number eleven in passing success right,
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: number twelve in passing explosiveness. They're pretty good. The issue
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: might be Texas is number fourteen in HAVOC and Arkansas
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: is number eighty seven and havoc allowed. So yeah, if
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: they can get after Taylor Green, they're probably going to
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: get some some interceptions off this Arkansas number ninety seven
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: and interceptions thrown per pass attempt. So running the ball,
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: Arkansas is really good at running football. Number one in
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: rushing explosiveness. They're number seven in PPAPRI rush, but Texas
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: is number five and PPA allowed per rush. Who do
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: you trust to take care of the football. I trust Texas.
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: Do I think that they are ten points better than Arkansas? No,
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: because I don't know. I mean that loss last week
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: basically knocked them out of the playoff. They just got
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: done playing Georgia. They have to play Texas A and
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: M next week, and then you get Arkansas just right
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: in the middle. I think Arkansas is more motivated to
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: win this game than Texas is. When you look at
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: five factors, Texas at number fourteen, Arkansas's number thirty six.
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: When you do five factors plus talent, Arkansas number twenty four,
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: Texas number eight. And these are two teams both with
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: top ten strength of schedules. So Arkansas has been playing
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: pretty well against really good football teams. Yeah. I know
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: that my projected SAT spread has ten or has Texas
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: minus ten point eighteen. Our rating Texas minus nine and
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: a half. But the last four weeks only has Texas
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: by a little less than three points, even with the turnovers.
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: Even with all that, I think Arkansas hangs around in
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: this thing, and I think they can make Texas really uncomfortable.
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: Give me the Hogs best numbers ten. I will take
• 25:17
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• 26:58
  Speaker 1: Make sure and jump in the comment let me know
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: your picks on these games, because I might need some
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: help with some of these. Motivation is certainly a factor
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: in some, but I want to know what you are
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: taking against the spread this week. But make sure and
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the channel and like the video while you're
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: at it. Game number five, two thirty pm Central Time
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: on ESPN, Kentucky travels to Nashville. They are going to
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: take on the Vanderbilt Commodes. Vanderbilt coming off of a
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: bye and Vandy right now favored by nine and a
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: half to ten depending on the book total of fifty
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: three and a half to fifty four and a half.
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: And Kentucky all of a sudden has life. Got a
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: big win over Tennessee Tech, who is not an awful
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: FCS team, massive win over Florida, they beat Auburn on
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: the road. I mean, this is three straight wins for Kentucky,
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: who now sits at five and five. Very interesting. Vanderbilt
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: five and one against the spread at home plus five
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: point six, Kentucky one and two against the spread on
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: the road plus point three. Kentucky is interesting, very interesting.
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: In overall five factors rank just raw five factors, Vanderbilt
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: number five, Kentucky up to number twenty eight. When you
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: do five factors plus talent, Vandy is number ten, Kentucky
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: number twenty three. So there's not a huge difference between
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: these two. Vanderbilt not very good against the pass. I
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: will tell you that they are pretty good against the run.
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: We'll start with Kentucky on offense. Kentucky is number forty
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: four in points per scoring opportunity, Vanderbilt number eighty, so
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: Kentucky should be able to finish drives against this against
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: this Vanderbilt defense, Vanderbilt, as I said, can't stop the pass.
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: Kentucky's numbers are getting better. This Bowley kid is okay.
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: He can throw the football a little bit. They have
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: figured out something with this offense. They are number eighty
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: one in PPA, p pass number eighty and yards per
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: pass attempt number seventy six in QBR. Vandy's defense number
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: one oh four in QBR allowed, number one twenty one
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: in PPA allowed per pass. Interesting. Interesting Now if Kentucky
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: wants to run the football, which they do, run it
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: more than fifty four percent of the time. They're number
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: twenty four in rushing success rate. Vandy is number forty
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: four and rushing success allowed. That's gonna be interesting on
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: that side of the ball. I think Kentucky will be
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: able to run the football some on these guys and
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: it'll open up at least enough of the passing game.
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: On the other side. Kentucky's, i mean, Mark Stoops's defense
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: is really good. But what Vanderbilt does is unlike what
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: anybody else does. They are number four in PPA per
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: drive on offense, number six in offensive success rate, excuse me,
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: number four PPA pri pass, number five PPA per rush.
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: Kentucky's defense is good at slowing some teams down. But
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: there are certain things that you know points per scoring opportunity.
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: For example, Vanderbilt number two in the country in points
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity, Kentucky's defense is number eighty six. Now
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: the difference there and why this could end up being
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: a closer game than you would think is Vandy is
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: number eighty one in scoring opportunities per game. So yeah,
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: they're able to move the ball and whatnot, but they
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: don't always get down there enough. I mean, they are
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: number one oh seven in pace of play. Kentucky is
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: number sixty six in pace of play. If you don't
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: have that many possessions, then you can't really get down
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: there all that often. So six point two drives per
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: game where Vanderbilt gets a first down inside the opponent
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: forty yard line. That's good for number eighty one in
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: the country. Kentucky number fifty three. Five point seven to
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: eight drives per game where they allow the opponent to
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: get a first down inside of their forty they are in.
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: Kentucky's defense is number eighty six in points allowed per
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunities. So both of these offenses should be able
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: to put up points on the opposing team, and then
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: it comes to down to turnover margin, et cetera. Kentucky
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: is number one on one in turnover margin number one
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: fourteen and giveaways per game. Vandy is number fifty one
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: in turnover margin, number thirteen in giveaways per game. So
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: Kentucky better at takeaways than Vandy. Vandy better at not
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: turning the ball over dan Kentucky. Vandy better on special teams.
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: Vandy has more penalties per game. I mean, this is
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: I think this is a tighter game than people would think.
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: So Kentucky feeling good about themselves. You know, we've got
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: a total of fifty three and a half on this.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: It's up to fifty four and a half at some books.
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: I think we see something interesting out of this. Kentucky
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: is playing for a bowl game. You gotta beat Vanderbilt
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: or you gotta beat Louisville one of the other, and
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: that'll get you to your sixth win. Vandy has got
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: Tennessee next week. They are feeling the hype right in
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: November eight gets a little bit thicker done it. It's
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: gonna it might be a little bit harder to breathe
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: in these waters because Kentucky's or Vanderbilt's never been here before.
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: I like that. This one's a double digits already. I'm
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: going with another road dog. Give me Kentucky plus ten
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: in Nashville to hang with Andy. Three pm Central time
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: on Fox. We got a big twelve matchup TCU going
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: to Houston, and right now, Houston a two and a
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: half to three point favorite depending on the book total
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: of fifty four and a half across the board on
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: this my projected stat spread has Houston by zero point
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: seven points. My power rating has Houston by point one points.
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: My last four weeks has Houston minus ten and a half.
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: TCU has not looked good, and that might be putting
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: it mouthly. They got just boat raced by BYU, and
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: I don't even know how to had to properly explain
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: that one because it was just a beating. Both of
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: these teams outside the top eighty as far as special
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: team's efficiency, although Houston is number eighty and TCU is
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: number one fifteen, so there is a massive difference. TCU
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: number twenty six, and overall talent rank Houston number fifty four,
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: which is a step above what they were the past
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: couple of years. This is a big time spot for Houston.
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: They are eight and two on the season. They are
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: seven to three against the spread. Willie Fritz is doing
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: big time things and they've got a real shot at
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: winning ten games this year, which is mind blowing. Nobody
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: is even thinking about this team. TCU won three and
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: one against the spread on the road minus four point eight.
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: Houston three and two against the spread at home this
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: year minus two point seven. So both teams play a
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: little bit less than expected on average in this particular spot.
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: Let's start with TCU on offense number forty one in
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity. Houston is number one ten points
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: allowed per scoring opportunity, so they Houston defense not great
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: at stopping drives, but there are number twelve in scoring
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: opportunities allowed per game, so they do not let you
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: get a first down inside their forty very often. Some
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: of that could be due to pace of play. Houston
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: is number fifty seven. TCU is number seventy one. Gonna
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: be interesting to watch, I think TCU. Looking at five factors,
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: TCU is number forty six, Houston number sixty four. On
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: the other side of the ball, when Houston has the ball,
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: there are number one oh nine and PPA per drive,
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: that's predicted points added per drive. TCU's defense is certainly
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: their worst point on the field, their worst spot on
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: the worst group on the field. And yet Houston is
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: really bad at running the football, and yet they try
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: and run it over fifty seven percent of the time.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: They are number one thirty two in PPA per rush,
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: number ninety and yards per rush and they run it
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: over fifty seven percent of the time, Number one oh
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: seven in rushing success rate. And TCU is great at
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: defending that. Houston When they throw the football, they're pretty
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: good at it. Number forty in QBR, number forty two
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: in yards per attempt. TCU is not good at defending
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: the past. They're number eighty four in yards allowed per attempt,
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: number eighty seven in QBR allowed. If Houston were to
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: throw the football more, they would probably have more success
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: against this particular matchup, but they are pretty hard headed
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: about running the football, so we'll see exactly what they
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: end up doing. They are number eighty eight in points
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity TCUs defense, number fifty nine in points
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: allowed per scoring opportunity. Let's look at some red zone
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: percentages on offense. Number fifty seven in red zone touchdown rate.
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: They are number eighty two in red zone appearances per game,
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: TCU number fifty one in red zone appearances per game allowed,
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: number seventy two in red zone touchdown rate. So if
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: Houston gets down there, I would imagine that they're able
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: to convert some of them. On the other side, TCU's
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: offense is really good at throwing the football. They kind
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: of suck at running the football number eighty eight and
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: rushing success right number one twelve and ppe a rush
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: number seventy nine in red zone touchdown rate, but they
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: are number forty one points per scoring opportunity as I
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: mentioned before, But they get down there a lot. They're
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: number seventeen in red zone appearances per game. Houston is
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: number twenty two in red zone appearance is allowed per game,
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: but they're number thirty two in red zone touchdown rate,
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: So you're probably not going to get score many touchdowns
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: down there. If that is the case, Like you're talking,
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: explosive plays could really make or break this game. And
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: as far as passing explosiveness, Houston number eighty three. TCU
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: can eat them alive with that. So you look at
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: current strength to schedule, TCU number forty seven, Houston number
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: seventy three. I don't know if Houston has played a
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: passing attack quite to this level. And TCU is looking
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: to get things back on track after two straight losses,
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: so I think TCU kind of opens things up. I
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: think they I think they can throw in Houston. Houston's
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: out to three. I will take TCU plus the three.
• 37:28
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• 39:14
  Speaker 1: Don't forget when you like the video, and make sure
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  Speaker 1: you're subscribed to the channel. Going down into the description
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: and click on buy meacoffee dot com, slash Winning Cures
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  Speaker 1: go and check that out over there. Become a member
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  Speaker 1: and enjoy our little community. Add on the game number
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: seven six pm Central Time, God's time Zone on ESPN.
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: Pitt is headed to Georgia Tech and yes, Pitt got
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: boat raced last week by Notre Dame. I'm pretty sure
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: a lot of teams would have gotten boat raced by
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame last week, but Pitt was also not all
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: that worried about that game. Georgia Tech right now favored
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: by two and a half at home total of sixty
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: one and a half to sixty two and a half,
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: and looking at the numbers, projected SAT spread has Georgia
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: Tech by one point one six. My power rating has
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tech by point seven. Last four weeks has got
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tech by zero point three seven. So we were
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: talking about a tight, tight football game here. That is
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: an odd implied scorer. What is going on with this database.
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: I'll have to fix that anyway. So Georgia Tech number
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: thirty two in PPA margin, Pitt is number thirty five.
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: Pitt has been playing significantly better with Mason Heinchel at
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: quarterback than what they were early in the season. The
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: offensive number still have not quite caught up. Still not
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: great at running the football, a whole lot better throwing
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: the football, but that is totally a k Bell offense.
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: Right They throw the ball the eighteenth most in the country,
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: fifty five point four to four percent of the time
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: they are throwing it. Georgia Tech on the other hand,
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: they run the ball thirty six to most in the
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: country over fifty five percent of the time, and they
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: are really good at it. The issue for Georgia Tech
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: is that Pitt's defense is good at defending the run
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: number nine and PPA allowed per rush, number five in
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: yards allowed per rush, number three in rushing success allowed,
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: number twenty one in rushing explosives allowed number three in
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: offensive line yards allowed number five and stuff rate. This
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: sounds like a Pat Norduzi offense or defense. Excuse me,
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: the offense is certainly weird, but Nordoozi at least has
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: been adaptable enough to understand what his football team needs.
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is still a seven and three football team, right.
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tech's offense is really good number fourteen in PPA
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: per drive. Pitt's defense is really good number fifty seven
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: in PPA pri drive allowed. Pitt's offense number sixty six
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: in PPA pro drive. Georgia Tech's defense is number one
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: oh four. I mean they left Boston College. There was
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: twelve hundred yards of offense in that game last week. Georgia
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: Tech probably should not have beaten Boston College last week,
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: and yet here we are Georgia Tech nine and one
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: on the season. There are four and one against the
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: spread at home plus four point two. Pitt is three
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: and one against the spread on the road plus two
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: point three, So this PIT team has been playing pretty
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: well on the road as well. Current strength to schedule.
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: As bad as Pitt's schedule has been, Georgia Tech's has
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: been worse. Number eighty eight in current strength to schedule,
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: PIT number sixty nine. So let's take a look at
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: who can finish drives, et cetera. PIT. For as much
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: as they, you know, get the ball up and down
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: the field, they are number three in scoring opportunities per game,
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: so five point four to four drives per game that
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: they get a first down inside the or sorry, sorry,
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: this is completely backwards. PIT on offense three point eight
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: to two drives per game. That's not ready either, sorry
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: Number four. Pitt's offense is number four in scoring opportunities
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: per game. I did sometimes I get going too quick?
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: Don't sometimes. Pitt's offense number four in the country in
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunities per game eight point six to seven drives
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: per game that they get a first down inside the
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: opponent forty. Georgia Tech's defense is number forty seven in
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunities allowed per game, but PITT is number sixty
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: five in points per scoring opportunity, so they're not great
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: at finishing drives three point eight two points per possession
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: that they get first down inside the opponent forty. That
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: could also go on and tell you that PITT is
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: number one oh six in offensive red zone touchdown rate,
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: even though they're number four in red zone appearances per game,
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: just a little over half the time do they score
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: a touchdown when they get inside the red zone. Not great, however,
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tech, they are number fifty four in points allowed
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity, number fifty six in red zone touchdown
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: rate allowed. Oh, let's see what that means. Let's see
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: what that means. George Deck is number one twenty nine
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: in takeaways per game. Pitt is number twenty one in
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: takeaways per game. As far as giveaways per game, Georgia
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: Tech does not turn the ball over, number twenty five
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: and giveaways per game. Pitt is number one fourteen in
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: giveaways per game. So this is hat on hat. Let's
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: see who can actually make the other blink at this point,
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: because Pitt wants to give you the ball george Deck
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: doesn't want to take it. Georgia Tech doesn't want to
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: give you the ball. Pitt wants to try and take
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: it away. That's the way it works. On the other side,
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: georgiea deck on offense number sixty three in points per
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity. Pitt's defense number one fourteen. However, Pitt is
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: number three and allowing first downs inside their forty. Georgie
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: Deck is number twenty in that position. Georgia Tech, for
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: whatever reason, has not been playing great. They're nine to one,
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: but they're number forty seven and five factors rank. Pitt
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: is number forty. Pitt a much better first half team.
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tech is slightly better in the second half, but
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: they're still not as good as Pitt when it comes
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: to you know, points per game margin, et cetera. I
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: think Pitt can go down there and win this game
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: in Atlanta. I think I think they're probably going to
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: win the game. So with this thing sitting at two
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: and a half in favor of Georgia Tech, you know,
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: I showed you the last four weeks, last four weeks
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: power rating and the projected stat spread, all I have
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tech by less than this two and a half.
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: That's the direction I'm going. So I don't trust this
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tech defense, and I think Pitt's defense is just
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: good enough to slow down Haynes King company. I will
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: take the freshman. I'll take the freshman quarterback over Haynes
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: King here. That's a rough one. Give me Pitt plus
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: two and a half. Game number eight, six thirty pm
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: Central Time, this one on ABC. Tennessee heads to Florida.
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: Valls fans are having nightmares already about this. Tennessee at
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: three and a half point favorite total of fifty seven
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: and a half. And make the numbers make sense. It
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: has been since two thousand and three that Tennessee has
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: won in Gainesville. Two thousand and three, twenty two long years.
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: Coaches have come and gone for both programs, and yet
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: one thing remains true. The Valls cannot win in Gainesville.
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: If there were ever a time for that to change,
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: it should be this season. It should. But alas here
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: we are, we're looking at a spread that's just a
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: touch over a field goal. My power rating has Tennessee
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: by three point six. My projected stat spread has Tennessee
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: minus eight, and yet the numbers over the last four weeks,
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: even with the blowout loss to Kentucky, because I believe
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: most of that was in garbage time, I would have
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: Florida favored by eighteen point eight points just based on
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: the last four weeks of play. That is insane, absolutely insane, Okay.
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: Tennessee's current strength schedule is number twenty eight, Florida's is
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: number two. Five factors rank Tennessee is number nineteen, Florida's
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: number fifty two. If you do five factors plus talent,
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: Tennessee number sixteen, Florida number twenty seven. You look at
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: points for a game differential, Tennessee number twenty one, Florida's
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: number ninety four. Tennessee is not great on defense. That
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: has been their problem all year now, number forty two
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: in defensive ppa allowed per drive. They are number eighty
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: nine in defensive success rate allowed, number one oh five
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: in rushing success allowed. Florida number twenty seven in rushing
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: success rate. There are number seventy seven in overall offensive
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: success rate. Very interesting because when you look at it,
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: you think that Tennessee can stop to run. They are
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: number twenty six in yards allowed per rush. They are
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: number thirty seven in rush rate number forty six and
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: rushing explosive this allowed number twenty five in offensive line yards,
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: et cetera. Florida is number twenty seven in rushing success,
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: but their number ninety four in yards per rush, number
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: thirty eight, offensive line yards number thirty and stuff rate.
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: Some of this has to do with who you have played,
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: and Florida has played some tough, tough defenses. So let's
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: look at when Tennessee has the football number eighteen in
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: PPA per pass, number fifteen in yards per pass attempt,
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: number twenty in QBR. Florida's defense number seventy seven m
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: PPA allowed for pass, number one four in yards allowed
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: per attempt, number seventy seven in QBR, the number one
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: oh one in passing explosiveness, and they are number ninety
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: in havoc great. So if they can't get after the quarterback,
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: it could be a really long day. I already wonder
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: if it's been if it's going to be a really
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: long day, because I don't know how many times Florida
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: can get back up off the mat. Right, they were
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: in the game in Oxford until the very end, right
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: quick Florida two and two against the spread minus one
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: point six against the number. At home, Tennessee one and
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: two against the spread, but they are plus two against
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: the spread away from home. It's very interesting numbers. All
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: of these different numbers would lead you to believe that
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: you should be taking Tennessee here. Pace of play Tennessee
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: is number one in the country, Florida's number eighty eight,
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: so Florida's going to try and slow them down. Points
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: per play margin, turnover margin. Both of these teams not
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: great at, you know, preventing turnovers. Florida's number one fourteen
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: and giveaways per game at Tennessee number ninety six. Tennessee
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: is number fourteen, and takeaways per game. Florida is number
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: forty three in takeaways per game. This Tennessee offense number
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: ten in points per scoring opportunity, so they're pretty goodt
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: finishing drives. Florida's defense is number sixty in points allowed
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity. On the other side, Florida number sixty
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: nine in points per scoring opportunity. Tennessee number one oh five,
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: So if Florida gets down there, they should be able
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: to put up some points. Kind of the same thing
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: with Tennessee. If they get down there, they should be
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: able to put up points. I we're talking twenty two
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: years of history. But I think when a team finally
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: gets over the hump, they completely blow it out of
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: the water. Right like back when Tennessee could not beat
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: Alabama for years and years. This back in the mid nineties,
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: when Peyton Manning was a sophomore, they went to Birmingham.
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: They had not beaten Alabama in eight years. It had
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: taken a very long time, and they just opened a
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: can of whoop pass on them forty one to fourteen.
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: Peerless Price was thrown an eighty hour touchdown pass on
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: the first play of the game. Stuff like that is
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: how these things typically go. This Florida team, I don't
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: know how much is left in the tank, right. They
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: have put up fights and put up fights, and then
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: you saw what it looked like when everything just crashed
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: out on them, Like Kentucky beat him thirty eight to seven.
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: Josh Hypel won't take his foot off the gas if
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: he gets them in a precarious position. No, I don't
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: trust the Tennessee defense, but I do think that they
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: will have enough explosive plays, etc. I mean, Florida's just
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: they've had so many guys hurt all this kind of stuff.
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: I just I don't think they can keep hanging on.
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: I'm going against twenty two years of history. Give me
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: the Tennessee Volunteers minus three and a half on the
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: road to finally get the Florida monkey off their back?
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  Speaker 1: Don't forget. You need to subscribe to the channel. It's free.
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  Speaker 1: I don't ask for much, but if you would subscribe
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  Speaker 1: to the channel and make sure and like the video,
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• 53:24
  Speaker 1: I would certainly certainly appreciate that and jump in the
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: comments as well. I want to know your picks on
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: these games. Toss them in there. Game number nine takes
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: us to the Big twelve and Cincinnati is hosting BYU,
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: who is a potential playoff team even though they got
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: she lacked by Texas Tech. But everybody's getting selacked by
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech other than theirs on the state, so it
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: is what it is. BYU currently a two and a
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: half point favorite. This one's seven pm Central time on Fox.
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: Total fifty four to fifty four and a half depending
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: on the book. Cincinnati did not look good last week
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: against Arizona. Arizona's defense really was able to stifle them,
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: and BYU looking to do the same thing here. My
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: projected stat spread has BYU minus three point seventy five.
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: My power rating has BYU minus three point six. My
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: last four weeks actually has BYU minus ten point eight seven.
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: So Cincinnati has fallen off pretty drastically. You look at
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: the five factors rank number sixteen for BYU, number twenty
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: one for since he and yet when since he has
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: gone up against better competition, they have not looked good,
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: like not even close. BYU was able to beat Utah.
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: It was only about three, but it is what it
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: is since he got shellacked by Utah. Since he's current
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: strength schedule is number fifty seven, BYU is number twenty seven,
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: so there is a massive difference there BYU number twenty
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: one and ppa margin since he number twenty four. Let's
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: look at when Cincinnati has the football, they are number
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: six in points per scoring opportunity. BYU's defense is number
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: thirty three. However, since he is number fifty eight in
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunities per game, that's when you get a first
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: down inside the opponent forty. BYU is number fifty at
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: preventing scoring opportunities per game. On the other side, BYU
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: is number forty nine and points per scoring opportunity that
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: since the defense is number sixty four, BYU is number
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: ten in scoring opportunities per game, so seven point seven
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: to eight drives per game that they get a first
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: down inside of the opponent forty. Since he is number
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: sixty eight at allowing scoring opportunities per game.
• 55:44
  Speaker 4: I.
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: Wonder about this like this BYU team is just a
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: good overall fundamental football team. They are better on defense
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: than they are on offense, and vice versa. For Cincinnati,
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: the issue is since he they want to be able
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: to run the football, And yeah, that's kind of the
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: weakness of the BYU defense, except that even that's really
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: not that bad, right since he is number four in
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: yards per rush BYU's defense is number thirty eight, since
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: the number one in offensive line yards BYU is number
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: fifty in offensive lineyards allowed. Let's look on the other side,
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: BYU wants to ruin the football, they're number nineteen and
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: PPA per rush, number twenty four in yards per rush
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: since he's defense number ninety one and PPA per rush
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: allowed number sixty eight yards allowed per rush. And then
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: as far as the defensive line versus the offensive line,
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: BYU number thirty three in offensive line yards since he
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: is number one twelve in offensive line yards allowed, it's
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: only two and a half. I know that you know
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: this is a letdown spot. Or BYU is going on
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: the road. Well is three and three against the spread
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: at home plus four BYU is three and two against
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: the spread on the road plus four and a half
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: BYU is playing really good football right now, and they
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: are in the driver's seat to get to the Big
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: twelve title game to face Texas Tech. Again, I haven't
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything out of Cincinnati to lead me to believe
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: that they can handle BYU in the trenches. That's the
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: direction I'm going with this. I'm going with another road favorite,
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: give me BYU minus two and a half. Game Number
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: ten takes us late night inside the Pac twelve or
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: the Big Ten. It's the Big Ten. Washington goes to
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: UCLA and Washington currently favored by ten and a half
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: points total fifty two and a half. This one's at
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: nine thirty pm Central Time, God's time zone on NBC.
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: Surprising that NBC would have a late night game, but regardless,
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: that's where we are. Washington, Good gracious, good gracious. UCLA's
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: current strength of schedule is number eight, Washington number forty one,
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: so there is a big difference there. Nico was held
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: out of the Ohio State game due to a concussion.
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: My guess is he will be back here. My guess
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: is that it won't necessarily matter unless Washington is just
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: not all that focused on this one. They do have
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: Oregon coming up next week. Ucla does have usc I
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: don't think I don't think UCLA is overlooking anybody right now.
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: Washington is not great away from home as far as
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: the spread is concerned. They are one in three against
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: the number minus three point six. Ucla is even worse
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: than that at home. Ucla is one and four against
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: the spread this year minus nine point three. So they
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: had that fun little little thing in the middle of
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: the season, and then they've gone back to just not
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: being able to do hardly anything. They cannot run the football.
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: They can throw it some whenever Nic goes in, but
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: they're still not great at that. Let me take that back.
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: Their defense can't stop anybody, right They are just atrocious.
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: Number one thirty in PPA allowed for rush, number one
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: oh nine in PPA allowed for pass. Washington should be
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: able to do whatever they want to on offense. Demon
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: Williams is going to have a field day here. Washington
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: number sixteen in PPA per pass, number eleven in PPA
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: per rush. Washington is number seventeen in points per scoring opportunity.
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: Ucla is number one thirty four in points allowed per
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity. I don't see UCLA being able to stop
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: them at all at all now. On the other side,
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: when UCLA has the ball, they're number one oh eight
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: in points per scoring opportunity. Washington's defense is number thirty nine,
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: so they'll let you move the ball some like they're
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: number one oh three and available yards margin, but they
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: don't let you finish drives. Defensive red zone conversion percentage,
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: they're number fifty eight eighty three point three three percent,
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: but they are number twenty seven in red zone touchdown
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: rate allowed. USLA is number eighty in red zone touchdown rate.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: Now they kick field goals and why notot when they
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: get down there, but that's about it, and you can't
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: be traded touchdowns for field goals. The projected stat spread
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: could already tell you this spread. On this Washington minus
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: ten and a half is the spread total fifty two
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: and a half. My projected stat spread has Washington by
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: about thirteen and a half points. Power Rating has Washington
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: minus ten point nine, and yes, home field is including
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: that last four weeks would have Washington by twenty eight
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: and a half points. I think we get closer to
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: the last four weeks tossing out the Wisconsin game. Washington
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: on the West coast is going to put up crazy
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: crazy points. I expect them to demolish Ucla here. Ucla
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: going back home after that Ohio State game. They're beat
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: up Washington. This it feels like a first half game, right,
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: score a lot of points early, Like Washington is number
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: sixty five in first half point margin. Ucla is way worse,
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: number one fourteen in first half point margin. And yet
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: my projected first half here is Washington minus two point nine.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: I ain't buying that. I think Washington comes out early,
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: gets on them.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 15: Yeah.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: I know Washington is not a great first half team,
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: but even still like this is this is going to
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: be one of those games where I think Washington could
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: cover every number. So I might start looking at allt
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: lines and stuff like that. If this thing drops below
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: ten for whatever reason, it's an automatic for me. But
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: for today's show, we make picks on this show, I
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: think Washington is the significantly better team. So give me
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: the Huskies minus ten and a half. All right, let's
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: recap that bad boy Missouri plus nine and a half,
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: SMU minus three, Oregon minus eight and a half, Arkansas
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: plus ten, Kentucky plus ten, TCU plus three, Pit plus
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: two and a half, Tennessee minus three, and a half
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: BYU minus two and a half Washington minus ten and
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: a half. Not the greatest slate in the world, but
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: it is still college football, and we've only got so
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: many Saturdays left in this regular season, so we better
• 1:02:31
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• 1:02:31
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• 1:02:32
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• 1:03:17
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