Latest / The Complete Agent - The Podcast For Premium Real Estate Agents / 140. Did the Budget Just Set the Stage for a General Election?
Transcript
- JK: Hello and welcome to another episode of the Complete Agent Podcast, where each week we get together to discuss Dave Warburton's internet connection. I'm James Kendall, Ian Storey: Thank JK: and I'm joined by my very good friends and esteemed colleagues, Ian Story and David Warburton, live from a Starlink satellite somewhere in the universe. Lads, how has your week been? Let's go to you, Mr. Starlink, David Warburton. Dave: Yeah, not bad, JK, thank you. I've actually been away. I had a week away and I was back to the office last week playing catch up. It's a little bit quieter at the moment. So we've had a quieter month on valuation requests, to be honest with you. Sales have been a bit lighter as well, but we've been putting some really good instructions on. So then we're going to launch over the next sort of seven days. four or five, is it really good instructions? Got one at 1.4 million, 700,000, 650,000 and 500,000. So quite a few gold dusts along with a nice one or more at the top end for our area as well. So instructions not bad. I think obviously with the buildup to the budget, which I know we're going to review a little bit today, that there has been a bit of a slow down, noticeable for me and viewing activity is down. think from speaking to a lot of people across the country. particularly TCA members and what have you. That seems to be a theme across the board, a pattern that's emerging. But overall, it's not bad. We're still in a great place. We've had a very, very good year. Our pipeline was bulging and a lot of that has started to come out, which is great. So we're in a good space. Would I like it to be a busier? Yes. But we've got some really good sales. So we've done two sales this week. with nice chunky fees, one at 1.3 million and what was the other one? Well, I can't remember. yeah, 900,000. So we're not in a bad place. It's all right, but it noticeably a lot quieter. What about yourself, Ian? How are you getting on, mate? Ian Storey: Morning chaps. Well, I'm feeling very positive this morning. We've got the usual ups and downs of estate agency land, but I had a look before we came on. So we've been a little bit lighter on barrels, listings and state, but we still have a strong month. We've agreed so far this month, we've agreed nine sales between 475 and 1.7. There's a more offers that I know about in the background and we've got a couple more offers from people who can't proceed. So we're really encouraging sellers to get those people in and try and agree something verbally. That's going down quite well with most sellers now. So far this month, 10 listings between 450 and 1.1, all 2 % plus upfront fees. Well, our pipeline is bigger than it's ever been. So our pipeline is absolutely superb, but... Doesn't always feel like that when you look at your bank balance. JK: Yeah. Ian Storey: My God. Having said that, we've had some really good exchanges in the last two weeks, really sort of million pound plus exchanges. One yesterday that we thought was definitely going to fall through. Another one last week, a really, really, really good one that's going to complete next week. So thank the Lord. We've had some really good exchanges come through. Couple of fallers. Basically one at 9.50 that's going to fall. an overage issue and then probably a really good one at 1.85 that's going to fall. Quite a funny one really, all a bit confusing. I'm to speak to the buyer today. So the sellers are quite pragmatic. So hopefully I can try and resurrect that. New Photographer is doing really well. Alfie has been with us just over a month now. He's doing really well flying around getting stuff. He's only 18, 19? JK: Nice. Ian Storey: Yeah, brilliant. know, committed. Just gets on with it. No, no faff. really, really good. And our new value comes across from a large independent premium estate agency that rhymes with Bavils. That's JK: Okay. Ian Storey: my 11 year old daughter crawling across the floor behind where she's Jamie, he's called he's starting three weeks. So I'm really looking forward to that. So you know, JK: Nice. Well I'm sure travels Dave: I think. JK: will miss them dearly. Dave: I was just thinking then here as you were talking, I think there's a balance isn't there between having a really chunky pipeline and being able to see that every day and then Ian Storey: Ugh. Dave: it starts to come out in your bank and you go that's great. Then you look at your pipeline and go, God, I want my pipeline back. It's really weird isn't it? What a weird feeling. Ian Storey: Yeah! Hello! Yeah. Dave: I've got a lot of cash in the bank, but wow, my pipeline's depleted now. Yeah, exactly. And Ian Storey: I know where the next lot of cash coming from. Yeah. Dave: I think those who are holding stock at the moment with good on market fees. Now is the time to be really working on that because, new instructions are out there. There's a lot of low hanging fruit, definitely. And there'll be a lot of disgruntled vendors that you can go and get. think that's Ian Storey: Yeah, hey, loads. Dave: what we're focusing a lot of energy on at the moment, going and those on market vendors. But equally understanding where the gold is in your own stock, because, you know, again, we'll talk about the budget, but that's out of the way now. And there's no better time to be going and getting that new stock. And also... you're getting real with your owners, your vendors now, existing stock. You want to Ian Storey: Yeah. Yeah. Matt and Vicky. Dave: sell? Ian Storey: Yeah. Matt and Vic have been really good recently at getting their own sellers to realign the price where they need to without me having to intervene. And I was looking at the board the other day. We've got, you know, a seriously good amount of money on the board and available fees now. People JK: Yeah. Ian Storey: want to sell. So we talk about going to see people who don't want to sell for next year and it gets a bit frustrating. But what we got now where they do want to sell loads, JK: Yeah. Ian Storey: absolutely loads. And I did a search on Rightmove this week and showed the team. 10 miles our core area is about a 10 mile radius from one point if that makes sense we kind of cover that whole area and there's over 700 houses available on right move between 500 over 500 grand 700 so JK: Well. Ian Storey: there's loads of houses to sell lads there's loads Dave: I'm Ian Storey: of houses to sell you just got to get in the door Dave: Yeah, now's the time, now's the time, absolutely. JK: pretty much the same story as you guys, really. you know, sales a bit lighter, single digits this month, unfortunately. one thing that has been obviously game changing for us for a while is the the average fees that we got. So, you know, when you're on single digits and your average fee is five figures, then it's not so much of an issue. I can remember being in a position eight, nine years ago where you're doing single digit figures in terms of sales and your average fee is two and a half grand, then you know, you're you're in trouble. but yeah, I mean in terms of listings, I mean we're we're hopefully gonna try and I'm negotiating. I mean the negotiations are protracted at the moment. I'm I'm trying to do a deal on the three million pounder we've got at the moment. We're a little bit far away, but we're getting there. and that would know, drop in nicely for November and set us off really, really well. but we're not gonna rest on the laurels and and wait for that to happen. but we've got quite a few listings coming on. yeah, on market stock, as you said, Dave, there's there's there's so many opportunities out there. and we're fine and we're just getting a lot come even coming to us. You know, our our market strategy is is is pretty good. and we're getting quite a few responses at the moment where people are, like you say, Dave, quite rightly disgruntled. where same old story where you know, promise the earth, over promise, under deliver, and then literally no updates have been coming. But sometimes people just want to know what's going on in the market. So speaking of what's going on in the market, we had the budget yesterday. last Dave: you JK: night, myself and Gatesy managed to get tickets to go to the spectators poster budget briefing in Westminster, chaired by Michael Gove. Dave: God, I bet that was wild. JK: Do you what it was do you know what actually it was crazy? It it was so much fun. Dave: God. Woof. Wow. JK: But d the thing is, I said to Ian off air, me and Gatesy even left early, to be honest, in the nicest way after the Q and A, when that was going on. Yeah, it was. I know. It I I I I Dave: Jesus, God it must have been boring. If Gates is leaving a statistical conference, how boring was that Gates? JK: I text him and I was like, mate, should we just clear off? And he like, Yeah, let's go. And it yeah, but we we we s the thing is though What we did get out of it, there was there was a fair bit. So just to set the scene, don't fall asleep on me. Michael Gove, chaired it as editor, editor, edit editor, Michael Simmons, who's the spectators economics editor, Tim Shipman, who's their political editor, Harry Galloway, who's head of financial planning at a financial planning place called Raymond James, and economist Catherine McBride. and basically They were talking about the budget, which is, the biggest budget by count since 2010. 98 measures adding up to almost nothing. So no stamp duty touched, no new property tax, CGT, which was a big one, I think a lot of people were worried about. that was left alone. And a lot, you know, even the conservative part of the stage was like, they're pretty glad. And and even the Harry from Raymond James was saying they were glad that they'd left that unchanged. And the guilt market just shrugged. So most people moving home, nothing happened. So your guys, your first reaction in one sentence. Did anyone ring you on Wednesday afternoon after the budget and s and did they ask anything? Was anyone actually bothered by it? Dave: No, no, I've got, JK: And Dave: mean, I've got, I've actually got a couple of calls lined up today and they were, on the back of let's see what happens after the budget kind of thing. so I've got, I've got two that were in particular waiting on reducing because they felt that this is a kind of milestone in the year that might impact their, end result, which, you know, if you're in a state agency and you do this every day, we know that's nonsense. but you know, there is, There's always a confidence level, isn't the leading up to stuff like this. It always slows down, always, always, always slows down every single time. Then they come and go without with minimal force really. And even when there's changes, I mean, we'll actually we'll go through a of the bits now. I'm going to get onto it straight away. But even when there's changes, the reality is it's short term and then it just goes back to normal. People deal with the circumstances that they've been dealt. It's as simple as that. You know, if you want to move house, well, selling it, you have to sell for the price that dictates them in the market that you're currently in. You want to buy a house, you have to buy in the conditions that you're in. If you're borrowing power has dropped, the likelihood is that everybody's borrowing power has dropped and that will have a knock on effect to house prices and you'll be able to buy something for less than you could have done maybe a few months ago. I was going say years, but maybe even a few months ago. JK: Yeah. Dave: So it just, I just find that, you know, you can drill down into the detail. think you, you have to know this. JK: J just a quick one, Dave, just on that. so just what 'cause you're talking about mortgage rates, how many of your fall throughs this year were down to mortgage, not survey or the chain? Dave: None apart from potentially one yesterday. So. JK: Yeah, that was gonna be my next thing. so are you finding it's more of a because we nearly we've had a few on a cliff edge where mortgage offers have expired end of October and completions have needed to have happened because the as you I think you said it a maybe I don't know if you said it, we were talking about it or whether it was on a pod the other week, but you know, even looking at where the market was and mortgage rates in February to where we are now, you know, the av average punter is, you know, 200 quid. plus worse off than they were. And, you know, where we're playing at the premium end of the market, sort of eight hundred K plus, you know, that could be four, five, six hundred pounds a month when all of a sudden that eight hundred grand purchase they're making is untenable at that sort of money. Dave: So this is, I mean, it is, it does impact people. And we, the one I've got yesterday basically is already, we're way down the line, way down the line. And there's been a problem with something else. It needs a deed of variation. And we'd agreed a reduction so that the buyer can go and do the deed of variation on their own. Cause speed was seemingly important. He agreed to do that, moved on a little bit. And then the solicitor said, no, you should get the seller to do this data variation, even if it takes a little bit longer. Sellers said, fine, we'll get it done, but I'm not reducing. We'd agreed a 20 grand reduction for them to get this done. He's then said, I'll get it done, but we're going to back, we're going back to the original price that we agreed, which was 750,000 for asking price. Everybody said, yeah, crack on. Anyway, just yesterday that he's received an email to say, my mortgage rates expired. I've now got a new rate. It's going to cost me more. I know what the 20 gram reduction again. And this seller is so pissed off. They just said I've bowed down to every demand that you've had. Absolutely no chance. And he's pulling away. But I do I do think there's a chance of that, J.K. Yeah. obviously example and you're talking about it as well. It's the reality. And again, for me, it's more fuel to the fire. This is what you need to be taking to your home. And what I going to say before is you need to understand what's happened yesterday. The very basics of it at the very least, so that you can articulate this to your existing homeowners and your future sellers as well. And when you go to the evaluations. But equally, you also maybe need to look at your recent history and stuff and how it does actually affect the property market. The reality is nobody actually knows how it is going to affect the property market in the six, the next six to 12 months. But you can take a bloody good guess based on history and just what's happening right now. And. The reality is homeowners before the budget need to get real because the main problem in this market right now is that interest rates being offered by the banks are higher. Affordability has dropped. Asking prices are clearly dropping. So people are now getting real that the country's debt levels are at the highest they've been since the last recession. none of this is affected by the budget. JK: Dave, just just on that, you you've mentioned that a few times and it's all linked to guilts. And I think a lot of people, when you say guilts, a lot of people don't understand. I mean, Dave: I'm not guilty of anything. JK: a lot of people are aren't clear on what guilts are. And basically, to if you're listening to this, to explain it in in a simpler way than I, you know, I hope I understand it the right way. that basically the the government spends more than it raises in tax. So it borrows and it does that by sell selling what it's called guilt, which are basically IOUs. Lend us money now and we'll pay you back with interest and you get your money back later. So the interest rate that investors demand is what's called the guilt yield. and if they trust the government plans, then basically the yield falls. And if they think that they're borrowing too much, then it rises. Now, my understanding is Dave: It fell though, didn't it? JK: but but banks borrow in the same market. To fund fixed rate mortgages. So when the guilt yields go up, the fixed rates go up. And when they fall, fixed rates follow. That that's the whole link. So the Bank of England base rate only really hits you if directly if you're on a tracker. Dave: Well after that, JK: and I think Dave: so the one I read before was that the 10 year guilt fell after the budget. JK: Yeah. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. They didn't they didn't spook the market. That that's the whole point of the being a nut, and we'll get onto this in a minute. Ian Storey: Okay. JK: but basically the the budget didn't spook the market. So there was no repeat of 2022 of of trusts. but CARM's not cheap. The base rate is 3.75%. But the market, and we were just talking about this off air, the market expects the next roof to be up, which is why the average two year fix is nearly six percent, the highest in three years. The OBR expects rates to be higher for longer as people roll off the cheap rates. But there's also we were talking about the Martin Lewis thing where capital economics think that they don't think it's gonna be as high for so long. So there is a possibility that, you know, Q two, Q one, Q two next year, it it could be you know, and we're not we're not gonna be talking about 0.1 interest rates. Don't think you're gonna be two percent interest rates again, but it's de definitely is gonna go up. There's no, there's a nine think the the the forecast was a ninety percent chance of a a base rate increase and it'll probably be point two five percent. but n basically nothing in the budget is gonna bring mortgage rates down. so your buyer's budget i is what they are and you just need to price to meet them. Dave: Yeah, I think there's a chance looking at it for me that in the very short term, might see a so the base rate is probably going to go up. We know that it's likely to go up before the end of the year. But based on what you've just been talking about there with Gilson, what have you know, J.K., a lot of the banks have factored in these rises and have started offering two year deals close to six percent. I think that, JK: That's exactly it. Dave: yeah, so there is a chance, though, in the very short term, there might be a little bit of relief, I think. Because don't forget, the banks need to sell products. They need to... JK: Well, that's what I was going to say to you. Some of them actually have started reducing reducing quote unquote rates Dave: Yeah. JK: because as as you quite rightly say, they they they still need to sell money. They can't sit there and go, well, we'll just keep putting rates up because no one's gonna borrow. and there's quite a few lenders. So so my business partner in our mortgage business puts daily updates out every day because he gets emails from lenders basically saying who's reducing rates, who's raising rates. And more often than not recently despite everything that's gone. Because all you have to remember is we're talking about it now, but the banks, as you quite rightly say, Dave, have already priced this in three, four, five, six weeks ago. and they've, I think part of them have gone, mm, have we been a bit heavy here on how high we put them up? Because I think was it were we nine percent down year on year in terms of transaction volumes. and so that's gonna and and mortgage approvals, they would they were down what? Was it seven percent? when we wrote the last update. Is that about right? but Dave: something like that yeah something like that JK: look, l I mean, it there are thereabouts, right? So mortgage approvals, that the back because that that is a a good marker of what the market is actually doing in terms of how many people are getting mortgage approvals. and transactions are down as well. But and the banks obviously still need to make money. Now obviously with higher interest rates, you know, if they're lending less but charging it out at more, simple economics so that they are still going to be making decent money. But equally, if that demand starts to fall and they're not selling mortgages, then they do need to price to entice, as as we love to say on here when it comes to house prices. But they do need to bring rates down to, you know, it's like anything. Money's money. Dave: Yeah, encourage people, but... JK: Money's money at the end of the day. Like you you if you all want to borrow, you know, £150,000, you don't care what the name is on the tin. You just want to get it at the cheapest rate. Dave: Absolutely. think JK: come. Dave: just with this as well, what we've got to also factor in here is that a lot of the banks will be doing this in anticipation of the budget and what's that going to, what that's going to bring. The budget's now been and gone. There's been very little there in my opinion to rock the market in any way, shape or form. You know, we know that landlords have been hit again. There's a, an incentive for first time buyers that it is probably, I don't know, probably going to be garbage in the end. but it's, has it rocked the market? No. And I think the way that you're talking right now, JK, like if I'm a seller looking to sell my house and I'm choosing between you and say Savils or someone like that, whoever it is, I'm looking at you and I'm going, this guy knows what he's talking about. He's, he's clearly understood the budget. He clearly gets what's happening in the mortgage world and the markets. And how that relates to my property. JK: Yeah. Dave: So my point is, and the context I'm giving is you have to know all this and it's really worth just having a look at the report, summarizing it and pulling out the main points that are going to affect your local market and being able to articulate that and hold a conversation about it. But when all's and done, it's the same things that are affecting people's, people's decisions to buy and sell. And it's the sellers right now that need to get real. And if we look at what's actually happening, buyer inquiries, think the, the number was 9 % down was it year on year. JK: Yeah, that that was it, yeah. Dave: Yeah. Sales agreed 8 % down year on year. And then the number of homes for sale is up seven or 8%. So we've got a problem. JK: Yeah. Sinkle simple economics. Dave: Yeah, we've got a problem. We've got fewer buyers, fewer sales being agreed and more properties available than ever before. So Mr. Teller. Tell me why you think your house is worth 50 grand more than the one down the road. It doesn't matter how good your house is. Does not matter how good your house is. It doesn't matter what plot it's on, how much street it's on. There's some simple economics out there that are going to prevent buyers from buying it at a premium they once could. That's just the reality and everybody needs to get real. So the budget for me is just noise. They come and go. It doesn't matter what they say. It will impact the market in a different in different ways. The reality is life goes on. People still need to move house and you need to be able to articulate how to get somebody sold in this market. And the biggest conversation you'll be having right now is about price, how your price is affected. People's borrowing power has dropped. The cost of living is is up until this war in the Middle East is over and sorted and a barrel of oil is cheaper. and petrol prices at the pump come down. We're all fucked. We just are. JK: Yeah. Dave: Excuse the French. But it's just the reality. And that's the passion, I think, that you need to get across. JK: Well d just yeah, on that day as well, there was one thing that came out of that thing yesterday that I think a lot of people didn't realise and it really opened my eyes was was all about fiscal drag. And that these are the kind of things that when you are meeting people at the upper end of the market and they are in financial positions within their business, like if somebody then says to you, you know, what what do you think about, you know, the whole fiscal drag effect on the market, like two days ago I would have gone, Yeah, yeah, I mean, it sounds great. ab no absolutely nothing. But basically in a nutshell, buyers and well people generally are paying more tax than they were two years ago on the same real income. And basically fiscal drag explained really simply is obviously income tax works in bands. So, you know, first twelve and a half, you pay twenty percent up to t fifty grand, forty percent after that, sorry, forty percent above that, and then forty-five percent above a hundred and twenty-five thousand roughly. And those those lines used to move up every year with inflation. So a pay rise, that only kept pr pace with with prices did not push you into a higher band. So the budget has kept them fro has kept them frozen now till twenty thirty one. So if pay goes up roughly with inflation, say you're on forty five grand in twenty twenty one and had a four percent rise every year and you're now on say fifty-five grand, the top slice of your pay is taxed at forty percent. Even though in real terms you could buy no more than you could in 2021. So if you Dave: Yeah. JK: multiply that across 30 million people like what working, and it raises more than any headline tax rise would, which is why the chances of both parties have leaned on it. That's fiscal drag. That's that's where the sort of threshold stands still. And in and it basically inflation drags you over them. And the minimum wage, Tim Shipman said at the the spectator briefing I went to yesterday. That when the minimum wage came in in 1999, the higher rate tax threshold was about four times the minimum wage. And it's now about 1.8 times. So people like teachers, nurses, police officers, they're all now higher rate taxpayers. So he, the the he put the the the tax raised by the freeze around 65 billion pounds and basically, and which it is basically a raid on on the middle class. And Majority of people, even people that work in the Treasury. So he told there was an anecdote about him going to the pub round the corner, where the Treasury staff go. And he was like, he bought a drink, went in there when they were all well oiled, and said, Right, hip hip, three cheers for fiscal drag, and everyone cheered. The point is the the Treasury love it because nobody understands it either. and I didn't understand it until twenty-four hours ago. but the whole point is, is that Fiscal drag is silently taking people people's money away when they've got absolute you know, with inflation i eroding everything and the fiscal drag pushing you up over those rates, it's basically like a the the silent tax that isn't in the headlines that is raising sixty five billion on the normal people that you and I are selling houses to. So look, basically look, no tax rate changed, but every buyer is going to have a little less in their pocket each year until twenty thirty one. So to to your point, Dave, the pricing has got to allow for it because if people have got less money to to spend, borrowing is costing more. what was five K a month in in January, for example, on a mortgage is now seven K on a mortgage potentially now. But people's earnings people have got less money, even if they're earning the same. They've got less available money to spend. So prices, it's about I I did this the other day with a lady that I'm getting on the market. She's on the market at the moment with another agent at 1.7 million pounds, 1.7 million pounds. And she said, well, they keep price is this, price is that. And I said, Listen, Joan, what what it's gotta be is if you gotta look at it this way. Don't look at it as the headline price. Look at it what your buyers can afford to pay monthly. In February. and possibly before, they they could potentially have paid one point seven million pounds for your house, which is why, you were under offer and and it was sold. And why then in the meantime, age agents put them in witness protection. So no one's actually spoken to it for a long time. but the reality is the market now can't meet that because there's a a two grand a month gap between the two. So, you know, if you're buying a car or buying a house or anything like that, like you don't look at the headline figure unless you're buying cash, which is like probably two percent of the market, the ninety eight percent of the market that is paying with a mortgage is looking at how affordable that is every month. And everything else has got more expensive as a result. Dave: So good for so long when it comes to borrowing costs. you know, that I know that there's a, there's an argument that we won't go into now about, you know, if you go back to the early nineties, the interest rates really high. then even, the sort of 2007, eight recession interest rates were at seven and seven and 8 % at that point. I remember my mortgage then was, seven and a half percent and it was all normal then. And I suppose. Incomes versus how much you've got to borrow against the house. Now, it used to be two and a half to three times your income. It's now seven and half to eight. I get all that argument, but it's been good as a seller. It's been good for a long time. You know, borrowing has been cheap. have the COVID period where it was ridiculously cheap and anyone could sell a house and you could get a premium for it. You know, the rumors after that were that the market was going to collapse. And, properties weren't going to sell and people were going to lose 25 and 30 % of values overnight. All that nonsense didn't happen. Prices have continued to rise. We were always going to reach a point where it needed to ease off and pull back a little bit. And now it's that time, you know, the country is not in great shape. Borrowing costs are higher and therefore. House prices are going to take a little bit of a hit most likely in the, in the coming months and maybe in the next few years, it looks like it probably is going to be a tricky few years, JK, from what you were saying before, but again, I go back to my point. People have got to move in every single market and articulating this stuff is the way to get people sold and get people moving because what else can you do? What else can you do? JK: So so here's a here's a thing for you then. So th this is this is something that I think was not on a lot of people's radar. But Tim Shipman, again, the spectator guy said he thinks the budget only makes sense if Burnham's gonna go to the country next year and call a general election. What what how do you what do you think? Do you think he's gonna do it? Dave: well, we did speak a little bit of air, and you, you gave an argument as to why that might happen. JK, about him being ahead in the polls and stuff like that. And that would make sense to do it sooner rather than later. I think the longer it goes on, if the, if things don't improve, in the economy, then he's less chance of getting reelected, hasn't he? so, so it would make sense to, to, JK: Yeah. Dave: to act faster now. so I could see the, I could see the logic behind it. And I wouldn't now be surprised thinking about it. If he is indeed ahead in the balls and what that would mean. I don't know. JK: So just on that, just to give you that context for anyone that's listening. So that basically I what I was saying was is that from this there was lots of small popular measures. So welfare reform has been kicked into the long grass. hard spending cuts have been loaded on to the end of the the the decade. la as you've said that I said off air, Labour are back over thirty percent in the polls. And there was something about and again, I'm probably gonna get this massively wrong here, but whether It's something like if reform are two points behind the Tories, or or maybe T Tories are four points ahead of their I I can't remember. But anyway, the reality is that they ha would have, based on the polls, what they need to get a majority. The other thing I didn't mention off air, now I don't know if this was tongue in cheek, but supposedly they'd heard that there was a leaflet printing contract had been signed with a big printing company by Labour. talks at Royal Mail about mail drops. Now, a against that, Burnham has obviously ruled it out before the conference, saying, you know, winter will be hard with energy prices and inflation rising. you know, Labour would lose seats against the twenty twenty four landslide, and obviously Gordon Brown is the cautionary tale. for agents, an election will obviously mean a lull between the announcement and polling day. obviously sharpest at the top end and then abyssum Autumn afterwards. I think what I would be saying to sellers and and buyers to be fair is it's it's the same old story. Don't try and time the market and certainly don't try and time it around politics. but it's one more reason to get people to launch in the first quarter rather than try and sit on the fence into the summer. If you're if you're but there's another thing that that came out of that as well, and it'd be interesting to get your take on this, guys. Do you think with them not doing anything with stamp duty, and bearing in mind the Tories have pledged to abolish stamp duty, do you think they have handed a f a freeze on the market for everyone at eight hundred grand that wants to move? Because there isn't something silly wasn't there a poll done of eight hundred thousand sellers or nine hundred thousand sellers at eight hundred plus, where people are holding off? to see if a general election will come before they look to move because the Tories are saying that they would abolish stamp duty. So, are they stalling the market by having that top end of the market waiting to see if the Tories get in and see if something happens with stamp duty? Ian Storey: So yeah, I'm sure plenty of people are waiting for that, especially at the higher end. The vast majority of our sellers at that level are certainly, almost certainly Tory voters. So I'm sure that a lot are potentially waiting for that. And it's about getting in front of the people that aren't waiting and want to sell now, isn't it? So everything you've just said and you articulated way better than I. I could, both of you. It's about getting in front of people who want to sell today. That's what it's about. That's what it's always about. And there's loads of them. You've just got to get in front of them. And we're coaching and training the team on this all the time. And we're about to put a new strategy in place for getting in front of those people that are on the market now, because it's out there. The people that want to move are out there. There's plenty of them. You've just got to get in front of them. repeating myself there from earlier in the pod but that's the essence of it isn't it? Getting in front of people is one of the JK: That's always the market though. When the market turns, it's you've got to focus on an exact is it is really this simple. Who wants to sell and who wants to buy? Like Ian Storey: Yeah. JK: focus on those two groups of people and you match buyers who want to buy with sellers who want to sell. The market will be the market. You have the sellers have to get real. Well, I just want to try this and see how we get on, because they'll end up disappointed. And I think the analogy before was chasing that heavy ball downhill in that, d Dave, you are, I think, articulated it really well. We talked about it before. I think maybe we're talking about this time last year, where if you're not so for example, if you're at 800, the market value is eight hundred, the data points to eight hundred, and you go on at eight fifty and the market moves, and then you go, in two and a half, three months, yeah, you know what, actually you were right, let's go to eight hundred and the markets then move to seven fifty. Like it at the end of the day, it you're you're gonna be worse off. You need to lock in a buyer now at the right sort of value. and we've had so many clients recently where we we well, some we've taken off the market to be fair. I've just said, look, if you don't need to sell and you don't want to sell right now and you're not willing to get in the market, then maybe you the best thing to do is take it off the market. But if you're serious about moving and, you know, let's remember if you're if you're not exiting the market, if you're staying in the market, it's all relative But also equally, as you've said before, Dave, it gets worse before it gets better. So don't rest your house off the market for three, four, five months thinking you're going to come back next year and it's going to be 10% improved. It's probably going to be 10% worse. So cut your losses now, get on the right price now, sell for what the top price in this current market is, exit the market. And if you are looking to buy some or do something with that money next year, then that Then it's the time to do it. Maximize your return because there's gonna be at least three months from now before you complete. So basically the bottom line is that sellers ha have to get real. I also think agents have to get real as well. focus on who wants to buy, focus on who wants to sell. control the controllables. Like Michelle said it last week, focus on what you can control. And I think you're a big advocate of that as well, Ian. Like, you know, stay away from the news, stay away from, you know, the bad news. you know. Just just focus on what's going on in your market and what you can see in front of you. Yes, you need to know what's going on with the economy, but equally you don't need to worry about things that you can't control. Like control what you can control. Deal with people who wanna sell, deal with people who wanna buy. Ian Storey: Yep, always. that's my philosophy in life anyway, it's about controlling what you can control and not worrying about anything else because there's absolutely no point. I mean, if you read the newspapers every day and watch the news, you'd be sat shivering in a corner somewhere where the world's going to end. So there's just absolutely no point whatsoever. Obviously, you need to have bit of knowledge just generally to able to have conversation with people. But I don't watch the news, don't read the papers and we've got a very successful business. know, there's just no point. But I'll go back to what I said earlier, there's hundreds of people that want to the house and there's hundreds of people that want to buy a house all the time and you just got to them JK: Yeah. Ian Storey: together. JK: Yeah. And that's it, as simple as that. So, ladies and gents, if you're listening, don't pay attention to the noise too much. Obviously, you've got to know your market and you've got to know what's going on, but equally, simple as who wants to sell, who wants to buy, match together. Good old fashioned estate agency. Thank you for listening and we will see you next week. Ian Storey: Bye.