Latest / The Retention Marketing Podcast with Fexingo: Email, SMS, and Loyalty for Repeat Customers / How a Grocery Chain Uses Email to Save At-Risk Shoppers
Transcript
- Lucas: So you know how most brands only notice a customer is gone after they've already left? There's a regional grocery chain that's trying to catch them a little earlier — right at the first sign of slipping. Luna: Like a radar for churn. How early can they actually spot it? Lucas: They're looking at purchase frequency and basket size. If a customer who usually shops every week goes two weeks without a visit, or their average spend drops by more than thirty percent, that flags them as at-risk. Then a series of emails kicks in automatically. Luna: So it's not waiting for a lapse, it's predicting it. What's the first email they send? Lucas: The first one is a gentle nudge — subject line something like 'We've missed you at the register.' It doesn't include a discount. It just reminds them of the convenience, maybe highlights a new product section or a seasonal aisle they might not have seen. The idea is to re-engage without training them to wait for a coupon. Luna: That's smart because if you start with a discount, they learn to expect one every time. But does a no-discount email actually work? Lucas: For about twenty percent of the at-risk group, yeah. They come back within a week. The chain shared some numbers — the open rate on that first email is around forty-five percent, which is decent, but the real metric they watch is the redemption of the follow-up offer. Luna: What's the follow-up? Lucas: If the first email doesn't pull them back within five days, they send a second one with a personalized offer based on purchase history. Maybe it's a dollar off their favorite brand of coffee, or double loyalty points on produce. That second email has a redemption rate close to twelve percent, which in grocery is pretty strong. Luna: Twelve percent redemption on an email campaign is solid. And they're not just blasting the same offer to everyone — it's tailored to what they usually buy. Lucas: Exactly. And they've been testing different subject lines to get there. One thing that worked surprisingly well was adding a deadline — 'Your exclusive offer expires Saturday.' It creates a gentle urgency without being pushy. They tested it against a version with no deadline and the redemption rate went up by almost thirty percent. Luna: Interesting. So urgency matters, but it has to be framed as a benefit, not a threat. What about the third email? Do they have a last-ditch attempt? Lucas: They do — a final email about ten days after the second one, but this one is different. It's not about an offer at all. It's a short survey asking if something went wrong — maybe a checkout issue or a delivery problem. They frame it as 'Help us improve.' The response rate is low, maybe two percent, but the feedback they get is gold. They've actually fixed a few things in their app because of it. Luna: So they're using churn as a diagnostic tool, not just a sales trigger. That's a smart way to close the loop. Lucas: And it's kept their overall churn rate lower than the industry average for grocery. They're hovering around five percent monthly churn, while a lot of competitors are seeing seven or eight. Luna: That's a meaningful difference. And it's all because they're catching people earlier. I think this episode is a good example of how retention is less about grand gestures and more about being attentive at the right moment. Lucas: Yeah, and if that kind of takeaway is useful to you, it's worth mentioning that the reason we can keep having these conversations without ads is listener support. If today gave you an idea you might use, you can keep that going at buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. Luna: Yeah, it's a small way to make sure the show stays free for everyone. Lucas: Anyway, getting back to the grocery chain — the takeaway for any brand is that win-back emails work best when they're timely, relevant, and not always about discounts. The first email sets the tone, the second one uses data, and the third one listens. Luna: And the data they're collecting from that survey — that's the real long-term win. It's not just about saving one customer, it's about fixing the underlying problem. Lucas: Right. And one thing I didn't mention — they're also using SMS for the highest-value customers. If someone in their top decile goes quiet, they get a text with a link to a personalized offer, and the response rate is even higher than email. Luna: That makes sense because for your best customers, you have permission to be a bit more direct. But you have to be careful not to overuse it. Lucas: Yeah, they limit it to one text per quarter, and only for that top group. So it stays special. Luna: So what's the one thing you'd tell a smaller brand to try first, if they want to start building a win-back flow? Lucas: Start with the data. Define what 'at-risk' means for your business — it could be ten days without a visit, or a drop in order value. Then set up a simple two-email sequence: one nudge, one offer. You don't need a fancy platform; even a basic email service can handle that. Luna: And measure redemption, not just open rates. That's the metric that actually ties to revenue. Lucas: Exactly. Open rates are vanity. Redemption is what pays the bills.