Latest / Job Hopping with Fexingo: Tenure, Loyalty, and the Modern Career Resume / How Your Salary History Shapes Your Next Job Offer
Transcript
- Lucas: You're filling out a job application. It asks for your current or most recent salary. You type in a number. That number — that one data point — just became the single biggest factor in what you're offered next. Luna: And not in a good way, right? There's a whole body of research on this. Lucas: There is. A 2024 working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research looked at this. They found that when candidates disclose their salary history upfront, the initial offer they receive is, on average, 7 to 12 percent lower than what they'd get if the employer didn't have that number. Luna: Seven to twelve percent. That's significant. If you're targeting a hundred thousand dollar role, that's seven thousand to twelve thousand dollars out of your pocket before you even start negotiating. Lucas: Exactly. And the mechanism is straightforward: anchoring. The hiring manager sees your previous salary — say, eighty-five thousand — and that becomes the mental anchor. Even if the role's budget goes up to a hundred and ten, the offer tends to cluster around that anchor. Luna: So it's not malice. It's cognitive bias. Recruiters aren't trying to lowball you intentionally; they just latch onto the most concrete number they have. Lucas: Right. And this effect is strongest when there's uncertainty about the market rate. If the role is something standardised, like a staff accountant in a known industry, the anchor has less pull. But for roles with a wider range — product marketing, project management, data analytics — the salary history can really bend the offer. Luna: Which is why a bunch of states have passed salary history bans. California, Colorado, New York, a handful of others. But most of the country still has no protection. Lucas: That's the key distinction. If you're in a state without a ban, the application will ask. And if you leave it blank, some systems will auto-reject you. So you have to decide: do I answer, or do I find a way around it? Luna: I've heard people say, 'Just put zero,' or 'Put a really high number.' Does that actually work? Lucas: Putting zero can backfire — some systems treat it as an error, or the recruiter assumes you're unemployed and desperate. Putting an inflated number? That can get you screened out if it's obviously above the range. The better move is to provide a range rather than a specific number. Luna: So instead of 'eighty-five thousand,' you say, 'I'm targeting roles in the ninety-five to one hundred ten range.' Lucas: Exactly. That shifts the anchor upward without lying. And it signals that you know the market. The same NBER study found that candidates who provided a range — even a wide one — ended up with offers about five percent higher on average than those who gave a single number. Luna: Let me play devil's advocate. Some recruiters say that if a candidate refuses to share salary history, it's a red flag — makes them look hard to work with. Is there any truth to that? Lucas: It can happen, but it's less common than you'd think. The study surveyed over five hundred recruiters and hiring managers. Only about fifteen percent said they view salary-history refusal negatively. The vast majority said they expect candidates to negotiate and understand that salary history is personal. Luna: So the risk is actually lower than most job seekers assume. That's reassuring. Lucas: It is. And here's a concrete example. Let's say you're a marketing manager in Texas — no salary history ban. Your current pay is seventy-eight thousand. You apply for a similar role at a different company. If you disclose that seventy-eight, the offer lands around eighty-two to eighty-five. If you give a range of ninety to one hundred, the offer lands around ninety-two to ninety-five. That's a ten thousand dollar difference. Luna: And in California, where they can't ask, what happens? Lucas: In California, the employer posts a salary range in the job listing. So you walk in knowing the floor and ceiling. The NBER data shows that in ban states, initial offers are about eight percent higher on average for the same role — because the anchor is the posted range, not your history. Luna: That's a pretty strong argument for national salary history bans. But until we get one, individual job hoppers have to navigate this themselves. Lucas: They do. And the tactics are straightforward. First, know your market rate before you apply. Sites like Levels.fyi, Glassdoor, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics can give you a solid range. Second, when asked for salary history, offer a range that's ten to fifteen percent above where you actually want to land. That gives you room to negotiate down while still landing above your current pay. Luna: What about when they ask for pay stubs? Some companies still do that, especially in banking and consulting. Lucas: That's a different beast. Wage statements — W-2s or pay stubs — are a harder 'no' to finesse. In states without bans, they can technically require them. But you can still push back politely. Say something like, 'I'm not comfortable sharing that, but I'm happy to discuss my expectations and the value I bring.' If they insist, you have to decide whether that company's culture is worth the fight. Luna: It's a red flag in its own right. If they're that rigid about a number from your past, what else are they rigid about? Lucas: Exactly. And look — this whole conversation is possible because of the research and resources that are out there. A couple of dollars a month is genuinely what keeps these going — buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo, if you've gotten something out of them. Luna: Yeah, it's a small thing that makes a real difference. Keeps the episodes ad-free and the research fresh. Lucas: So back to that marketing manager in Texas. Let's say they get an offer for ninety-two thousand after using a range. That's a fourteen thousand dollar jump from seventy-eight. That's an eighteen percent increase. The national average for a job hop is about ten to twelve percent. So by managing the anchor, they've almost doubled the typical bump. Luna: And it's not just the first offer. That ninety-two thousand becomes the anchor for the next job, and the one after that. Compounding. Lucas: Exactly. Salary history doesn't just affect this move — it sets the trajectory for your career. A five-thousand-dollar difference now, compounded over thirty years with average raises, is something like seventy to a hundred thousand dollars in lifetime earnings. Luna: That's the real cost of letting your past pay dictate your future pay. So what's one takeaway you'd leave listeners with? Lucas: When you're asked for your salary history, pause. You are not obligated to hand over the anchor. Provide a range that reflects the market, not your past. And if you're in a ban state, lean into the posted range — that's your new anchor. Use it. Luna: Simple in theory, but it takes practice. Especially if you're nervous in an interview. Lucas: It does. But the payoff is worth it. Every job hop is a chance to reset the number. Don't let your history write your future. Luna: Great advice. I know I'll be thinking about this next time I fill out an application. Lucas: And that's the goal. Next episode, we'll look at another hidden force shaping your offers. Until then, keep hopping smart.