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Soft Oakville-Milton Market: Mortgage Impact | Your Mortgage Minute · Your Mortgage Minute | Onlendhub

• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to another episode of Your Mortgage Minute.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_00: We have our mortgage expert, Mooley, with us here today.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: We're looking at the mortgage side of a soft Oakville Milton market.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_00: What are the local numbers actually telling us?
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_01: In July of 2026, we saw 467 sales, essentially flat year over year.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_01: The MLSHPI composite benchmark sat at$1,057,100, down 4.6% from a year earlier.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: And August.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_01: Softer again.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_01: The benchmark slipped to around$1,044,000, down 5.7% year over year, with 382 sales and roughly 4.6 months of inventory.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_01: Quick flag though, asking price, sold price, and benchmark are three different yardsticks.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_01: Don't mix them.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_00: So when someone tells me Milton's average is over a million three, ask which average.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_01: The asking read was about 1,390,000 across 549 active listings.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_01: The sold read was closer to 944,000 over 147 deals.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_01: Same town, very different picture.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: Soft market, plenty of inventory.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: For someone trying to borrow, what does that change?
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_01: More choice, more room to negotiate, more time for due diligence, but a softer appraisal hits the mortgage math too.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_01: On a refinance, your loan to value runs off today's value, not what you paid.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: Run me through the example.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_01: Balance of$480,000.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_01: The place was worth$850,000.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_01: The current appraisal is$790,000, and the LTV cap is 80%.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_01: At the old value, your ceiling was$680,000.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_01: At today's value, it's$632,000.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_01: That's$48,000 of room gone.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: And if they're carrying debt, they'd roll into it?
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_01: The consolidated debt here is$40,000, carrying a monthly payment of$221 and$26,417 in total interest over the amortization.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_01: That's a real cost.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_01: Don't stack it up against the refinance savings on their own.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: Hold on though.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_00: If someone's just renewing with the same lender, why would a lower appraisal even matter?
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_01: Hmm.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_01: On a straight renewal, it usually doesn't.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_01: You're typically not re-qualifying under the full stress test.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_01: That's lender policy, not a blanket rule, and it can vary.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_01: The appraisal bytes when you switch lenders, add a HELOC or refinance, whole different underwriting conversation.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: So renewing and switching aren't the same thing?
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_01: No.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_01: And the rules get fussy.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_01: An eligible uninsured straight switch, different federally regulated lender, same loan amount, same or shorter amortization, no new money, has been exempt from the prescribed minimum qualifying rate since November 2024.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: Even on an insured file?
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_01: Insured files have their own history, and underwriting still varies file to file.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_01: Some lenders run their own stress test, and provincial credit unions aren't federally regulated.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_01: So don't bank on the exemption until your lender confirms it.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: If the stress test formula does apply, how does the math go?
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_01: It's the greater of your contract rate plus two percentage points or a floor of 5.25%.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_01: On a 4.5 contract rate, 4.5 plus 2 is 6.5.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_01: That clears the floor, so 6.5% is the qualifying rate.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_00: So that can shrink what you qualify for, even though your payments still set off the contract rate.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_01: Exactly.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_01: 6.5 is for qualifying only.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_01: It is not your payment.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: Let's do payments then.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_00: Same borrower, moving from 1.9 to 4.5, 25 years left,$480,000 owing.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_01: These are Canadian nominal rates, compounded semi-annually, monthly payments.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_01: The old payment was$2,009.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_01: At$4.5 over$25 years, it's$2,657.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_01: That's$647 more a month.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_01: That's a jump.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_01: And if they stretch to 30 years,$2,420,$236 a month less than the 25-year option.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_01: But you're paying the principal down slower, and you hand back more interest over the life of the loan.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_01: It's a cash flow trade, not a free lunch.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_00: The Bank of Canada's held for seven straight meetings.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: So why would anyone lock in fixed right now?
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_01: Because fixed rates don't follow the policy rate.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_01: They track bond yields, and the five-year government of Canada yield has been climbing.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_01: A hold just freezes the overnight rate.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_01: It says nothing about where five-year money trades.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_01: Big lenders have already bumped fixed rates 10 to 20 basis points.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_01: And one broker put the range at 20 to almost 100 across lenders.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_01: Policy rates on hold.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_01: Fixed pricing isn't.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: And the discounts off posted?
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_01: Getting pulled in some cases.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_01: So the gap between the posted rate and what you actually get can run wider than the headline bump suggests.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_01: That's lender policy, not regulation, but it lands on real borrowers.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: What about variable rate?
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_01: CMHC had variable products at about 35.5% of new uninsured originations in Q1.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_01: More people are picking variable and shorter terms, which pushes more interest rate risk onto households, and shorter terms renew into whatever the market looks like then.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_01: On top of that, the bank's own wording now leaves a hike this year on the table.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_01: That's an expectation, not a decision.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_01: But the conversation has shifted.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: So what's the practical move?
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_01: Get the offer in writing.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_01: Ask how long the rates held.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_01: Compare the qualifying rate, not just the contract rate, and know which lane you're in: straight renewal, switch, or refinance, because those are three different underwriting paths.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: One disclaimer this is illustrative and educational only, not personalized financial, legal, or tax advice.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: Lender calculations, fees, insurance, taxes, and payment frequency can differ.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: Your mortgage minute by onlandhub.ca.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_00: See you in another episode next week.