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Ryan Bridge: There's no golden outcome for Luxon's leadership contest · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Here's how this morning is going to play out. At
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: nine thirty am, any member of National's caucus can call
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: a no confidence vote in Luckson's leadership. Parties constitution calls
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: these guys the Parliamentary Section. They vote its majority rules
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: if there's a vacancy. If there is a vacancy ie
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Luxin's Gomburger, then they elect a new leader or leaders.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: History tells us most leaders would do the honorable thing
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: before this and stand aside, clear the decks, let things
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: get ready. Bolds did it when Shipley got the knives out.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Luxon would be no different. It's possible this could happen
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: before nine point thirty am. We could see the PM
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: resign as Leader of National ahead of the caucus and
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: effectively as PM in a matter of ours. If the
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: numbers are not in his favor the writings on the wall,
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: he could clear the decks for the caucus to focus
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: on electing his replacement. I've been speaking to National Party
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: MP's and former MPs over the past two weeks, because
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: that's how long this thing has been really dragging on
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: behind the scenes. Some are furious with Luckson's leadership, own goals,
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: foot and mouth disease, lack of discipline. There's a feeling
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: that Key and others in the party have been covering
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: for Luckson's mistakes, hammering the message that any change will
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: mean catastrophe come polling day. Talk of a Stanford Mitchell
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: ticket with Bishop as finance tells you that unlike last time,
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: the leadership hopefuls have organized with a viable alternative, notably
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: excluding Nikola Willis. Anyone who tells you that they know
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: what will happen today is making it up. As much
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: as twenty five percent of the caucus are set to
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: lose their jobs on current polling. If Luxen loses his today,
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: it will be a gamble, a roll of the dice,
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: a massive risk if they stick with Luxin How can
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: you credibly say you're unified behind your leader after two
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: spills in four months. Leaders confident in their support don't
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: need to call confidence votes in themselves, and certainly not twice.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: For more from early edition with Ryan Bridge, Listen live
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: to News Talks at b from five am weekdays, or
• 2:10
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