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Ryan Bridge: There's no golden outcome for Luxon's leadership contest

Here's how this morning is going to play out.

At 9:30am, any member of National's caucus can call a no-confidence vote in Luxon's leadership.

The party's constitution calls these guys the Parliamentary Section.

They vote. It's majority rules. If there's a vacancy, i.e. if Luxon is goneburger, then they elect a new leader or leaders.

It's majority rules. So if a majority of MPs want change, then Luxon is gone.

History tells us most leaders would do the honourable thing and stand aside before it gets to this point.

Bolger did it when Shipley led a coup.

Luxon would be no different.

It's…

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