The Next Recession

Macro Bytes · Jul 1, 2022 · 22m

In this podcast, co-hosts Luke Bartholomew and Paul Diggle speak to abrdn’s Deputy Chief Economist about the US-led global recession we are forecasting.

The key takeaways were:

We expect the US economy to fall into recession in the second half of 2023 as a result of the Fed’s monetary policy tightening.

History suggests that when inflation gets this high and unemployment this low, hiking cycles overwhelming end in recessions. That is because the way to rebalance the economy and tame inflation expectations is to deliver a slowdown in activity commensurate with a recession.

The recession is not…