Latest / The Road to Accountable AI / Angela Zhang: What's Really Happening with AI (and AI Governance) in China
Transcript
- 0:00Angela, welcome to the Road to Accountable AI.
- 0:04Hi, hello, thanks for having me.
- 0:07Before we get to a conversation about AI in China, can you talk a little bit about the history of the tech sector there and maybe give people some framework for comparison to
- 0:19the US or other countries they may be familiar with?
- 0:22Well, China is really the only country other than the United States that have been able to foster big tech companies so far.
- 0:32in early 2021, like Alibaba, Tencent, I mean, these companies were on the verge of reaching the one trillion dollar market cap.
- 0:42And so soon would join this trillion dollar market cap club, although subsequently they face a big crackdown.
- 0:52They suffer severe market cap loss.
- 0:54But seriously, we are talking about the world's largest big tech companies.
- 1:00And partly because in the consumer tech sector, Chinese government imposed this, erected this great firewall that have made it very difficult for US social media businesses to
- 1:15operate in China.
- 1:17So in a way that that create entry barrier, very high entry barrier.
- 1:21for US companies.
- 1:23So far, only US firm that have been able to gain a little bit foothold is Microsoft.
- 1:29But still, Bing has only 1 % of the market share in China's search business.
- 1:36Many Americans that I talk to are under the impression that there's no difference between the Chinese government or the Chinese Communist Party and private companies like Alibaba
- 1:45and ByteDance and so forth.
- 1:46Is that accurate?
- 1:49Well, I think that's definitely an oversimplification of the situation in China.
- 1:54Look, mean, Elon Musk also operates a hugely successful business in China.
- 2:00And China is the reason why he became the richest man in the world, because the Chinese government really helped Tesla to create a very, to have access to a very convenient
- 2:15supply chain and also to
- 2:17open up a huge production assembly line in Shanghai.
- 2:24So the government was in many ways extending helping hands to its own tech firms and even to Elon Musk's company as well.
- 2:32So in that way, that is something that you don't see in other jurisdictions.
- 2:41And it's also true that companies operating in China, they exhibit
- 2:47a much higher level of cooperation with the government.
- 2:54You don't see them fighting with the government in courts, in anti -trust or big data cases.
- 3:00Even Elon Musk himself, which sent poor emoji to the US government, will be really, really friendly to the Chinese government.
- 3:13He came and visited the Chinese government a few months ago.
- 3:17And that's why the Tesla car now can drive Tesla car in some of the government compounds, which were restricted before.
- 3:28mean, so I think it's definitely different type of relationship.
- 3:34But I wouldn't say these companies are completely watchdog of the Chinese government.
- 3:42You mentioned earlier the crackdown on companies like Alibaba and so forth.
- 3:47So how did the relationship with the Chinese state and the tech sector change?
- 3:52For a really long time, they were in the honeymoon period.
- 3:56I would say from the early 2010s until late 2020, the Chinese government has played a very important role propping up Chinese tech sector.
- 4:07And in this period, I would see regulation more as a helping hand rather than a grabbing hand.
- 4:16However, since late 2020, we experienced a massive crackdown of
- 4:22China's own indigenous tech sector and big companies like Alibaba and Tansan, everybody else were affected.
- 4:32And these companies really suffer a great deal, right?
- 4:36mean, so since then, the government has really tightened its scrutiny over these farms.
- 4:44However, that campaign only lasted for 18 months.
- 4:48So the government relaxed.
- 4:50its regulatory control in early 2022.
- 4:54So now we are back to a lag stage.
- 4:57So there's a lot of volatility in Chinese regulation and there's something that is very uncommonly seen in other jurisdictions.
- 5:06And that's something that I elaborated in detail in my book, High Wire.
- 5:14was the rationale for that crackdown?
- 5:15Was it similar to the antitrust motivation that we've seen in Europe, in the US, vis -a -vis the big tech platforms?
- 5:24Yes and no.
- 5:24OK, yes, because these kind of actions are actually way overdue.
- 5:32And the Chinese tech sector is actually much more concentrated than the US and the European tech sector.
- 5:39China is home to really two duopolies, Alibaba and Tencent, which hold a massive hundreds of portfolio companies each in their own ecosystem.
- 5:53created this erected this wall gardens that prevent companies, rival companies to access the ecosystem.
- 6:03And so create all sorts of competition issues.
- 6:07And however, because for a really long time, the government was trying to nurture this industry, regulators took a very lack stand.
- 6:17So that kind of bureaucratic inertia or
- 6:21agency inaction also partly further exacerbate this problem.
- 6:26Now, in the late 2020, what really changed the game, however, is the government woke up and realized, look, I these companies, the Alibaba, Tencent, they're just not, they're not
- 6:39just selling clothes or video games.
- 6:44They are now, you know, controlling our own financial system because
- 6:50At the end of 2020, Alibaba was, not Alibaba, Ant Group, which is a sister company of Alibaba, and it's founded by Jack Ma, was on the verge of getting listed in Shanghai and
- 7:05Hong Kong.
- 7:06And this was supposed to be the biggest IPO of the year.
- 7:12And one of the big parts of Ant's business is the...
- 7:19the credit tag businesses, which Ant as an intermediary connecting ordinary users and the small and medium sized state -owned banks.
- 7:32But Ant had very little skin in the game, so the Chinese government was quite concerned about the moral hazard problem.
- 7:40But what worries them more is that Ant got an extremely high valuation of 320 billion US dollars.
- 7:49In other words, that valuation at the time put in at a higher, now put in as a bigger bank than JP Morgan at the time.
- 7:58I mean, so this was a 60 year old company that's been from Alibaba and it's grow to be such a huge scale and size and with a big hidden problem of moral hazard.
- 8:12And that really worries the Chinese government.
- 8:16I mean, that explains why
- 8:18They suspended Ant's IPO at 11 hour.
- 8:23So a lot of people were looking at that whole saga as like, Jack Ma said something stupid at the financial summit.
- 8:32And so Xi Jinping got very upset.
- 8:35And then they initiated this huge crackdown.
- 8:39But the story goes deeper than that.
- 8:41mean, actually the tension went way back.
- 8:45I mean, it's fundamentally.
- 8:47It was this huge concentration of these big tech companies and their pervasive influence that really alarmed the Chinese government.
- 8:56And they realized, you know, these have threatened potentially financial stability, economic stability, and ultimately their political control.
- 9:08Okay, let's pivot to AIs.
- 9:10That's what I really want to focus on with you for most of our time.
- 9:13You talked about the high barriers to entry for the US tech companies in China.
- 9:17And similarly, the big Chinese companies with the possible exception of TikTok are not prominent in the US.
- 9:23Is the same dynamic playing out in the AI sector?
- 9:28Yes, in a way, yes it is.
- 9:30Although AI, we are talking about many different services.
- 9:34There are hardware services, software services.
- 9:37Give an example of facial recognition technology.
- 9:41This is the most widely applied technology in China.
- 9:45And China really has become the biggest exporter of facial recognition technology.
- 9:50But no Western countries want to purchase the Chinese tech product.
- 9:56right?
- 9:57Even though they are the most accurate, they are really efficient.
- 10:00If you come to China, you will experience that.
- 10:02It's everywhere.
- 10:03The camera is everywhere.
- 10:04And you basically go through all the security check seamlessly and highly efficient.
- 10:11So I was quite frustrated when I live in US or in Europe.
- 10:15You still need a lot of human control of the system.
- 10:19But in China, you really experience extreme level of efficiency with this technology.
- 10:26And similarly, in China, you can't access a track GPT, although it's not the government's choice to block it.
- 10:36It's more of a track GPT doesn't open AI doesn't want to operate in China, even block its API in China.
- 10:42But Microsoft operate in China and Microsoft continue to offer similar services through its Azure to Chinese companies.
- 10:55a little bit integration, but to the extent this dynamic, this kind of splinter net dynamics continues in the age of AI.
- 11:06And what has been the Chinese state's approach to regulating AI?
- 11:10Yeah, I mean, the Chinese government has a very ambivalent approach in regulating AI.
- 11:15Well, I mean, it depends on which technology we're talking about.
- 11:18mean, go back to facial recognition technology.
- 11:23This technology has been so widely used in China in public and commercial settings.
- 11:30And this has generated a lot of controversy.
- 11:34And in fact, in some cases, even some lawsuits from some activist lawyers.
- 11:40And I think there are growing discontent with some of the Chinese citizens against this kind of public surveillance.
- 11:50However, to this day, China has not adopted a comprehensive legislation to regulate this technology.
- 12:00For sure, if China wants to have one, it can have it tomorrow.
- 12:03And it has been drafting it for a long time.
- 12:07So the reason for a delay is not that China does not have the capacity to write this law or to adopt it.
- 12:12It's more of other institutional and bureaucratic interests holding it back because they don't want to stifle the commercial growth of this technology.
- 12:22I mean, if an AI technology does not affect the fundamentals, the bottom lines of the Chinese Communist Party, I don't see China is in any way in a rush.
- 12:36to adopt a piece of legislation that might potentially hold back innovation that might deter investment and entrepreneurship.
- 12:46Now, on the other hand, when CheckGPT emerged, China was the first one to rush to the scene.
- 12:53And pulling back actually suspended a lot of the CheckGPT -like services in Apple's App Store.
- 13:04just three months after its launch.
- 13:07And China was also the first one to promulgate quite comprehensive rules called interim measures to regulate genitive AI in just six months after CHKGPT's release.
- 13:19And then a year ago, China already adopted this law way ahead of the EU's AI Act.
- 13:26Now, what explained that proactivity there?
- 13:30This is also quite intuitive because
- 13:32This again goes back to the bottom line of the Chinese Communist Party because they are concerned that AI, genitive output, particularly from this genitive AI technology may not
- 13:43be aligned with the political value of the Chinese Communist Party.
- 13:48So they call it the socialist core values, right?
- 13:52mean, which is a very broad concept.
- 13:55And...
- 13:56And this is something that the government was most concerned about.
- 13:59So you can imagine, right?
- 14:00mean, so this type of regulation will be really targeted at content moderation.
- 14:05But funny enough, you see the exact contrast in the US.
- 14:09This is something that the US really lacks because of Section 230 and a lot of constitutional rights protection in the US, right?
- 14:20But in China, content moderation is the single area.
- 14:25which the government has imposed the most control.
- 14:30So that's interesting.
- 14:31what you're saying is some things like facial recognition and emotion detection and so forth are the things that are most heavily regulated in the US and Europe.
- 14:39And some things like content moderation, which are the least regulated here or the most regulated in China and place versa.
- 14:47Yeah, I mean, I'm sure that autonomous driving and facial recognition, they will be still subject to some sort of sector regulation.
- 14:54I once talked to one of the GC at general council at a leading Chinese automobile company.
- 15:03Is that my day job, I spent half of my day job just meeting different government officials and different government regulators and from various sectors.
- 15:13I mean, they're not just dealing with one agency.
- 15:16They're dealing with the whole bureaucracy here.
- 15:19However, they're taking a consensual approach.
- 15:22It's not like the government make a big announcement like how they deal with Alibaba.
- 15:26I mean, suddenly, an announcement out of the blue shocked the whole huge investor, the huge equity market.
- 15:34It's more a consensual approach.
- 15:37here are the things that you need to do and you need to tweak.
- 15:40And here's what you can do to do compliance.
- 15:45So it's more friendly approach, right?
- 15:48mean, and so a more softer way of regulating these businesses.
- 15:56Given the nature of generative AI though, where it's generative, it's you can't be absolutely certain what it's going to create, is this extreme strictness about content and
- 16:09presumably a great deal of fear among the companies if they get it wrong in terms of what the consequences might be, you much more so than if open AI has some bad output.
- 16:18Is that going to be, you think, a fundamental limit on the success and the quality of Chinese large language models?
- 16:27It definitely will hinder the development of the B2C products because in China, if you want to introduce public saving, generative AI product and services, you need to obtain a
- 16:44license from the cyberspace administration of China.
- 16:48They don't officially call it license.
- 16:49They said that you need to conduct a security assessment.
- 16:52Basically, you need to go to CAC and then file registration and then
- 16:57get some sort of green light before you can introduce your services to the public.
- 17:02So in this way, company already voluntarily complied to conduct a self -censorship and impose a lot of the filtering at the last stage of the development of the AI model to make
- 17:15sure the content generated will not generate problematic, harmful, or inappropriate content.
- 17:27And that will definitely affect the user experience because very often time you put it in a prom and then it tells you that they don't have the answer, this is not available.
- 17:38So definitely affect user experience.
- 17:42But let's also bear in mind that the government does not regulate enterprise use AI application.
- 17:50In fact, interim measures of regulating generative AI only apply to public phasing services.
- 17:56So if you are selling to a company like Huawei, ZTE, or TCL, or whatever, you're not subject to this kind of censorship control.
- 18:12So to that extent, I don't think it necessarily hold back the development of the technology itself.
- 18:18However, it definitely reduce user experience in a way that also make this product a bit less
- 18:26interest attractive.
- 18:28But to be honest with you, all these farms in China are struggling to capital to profit from this new genitive AI tools, right?
- 18:38Company like Baidu, like Huashou, they, everybody is offering this kind of tools, but they're burning every money every day.
- 18:45To this day, none of them have come up with a sustainable business strategy planned.
- 18:54as to how I can make money on this thing.
- 18:56I mean, yes, OpenAI, can charge money fee.
- 19:00But in China, people get used to free stuff.
- 19:03And so there's a big problem.
- 19:07Although this generated a huge hype, but it's not really bringing in a lot of profits yet for this company.
- 19:14It's still at the investment stage.
- 19:17And it's very expensive because before, for this consumer tech business,
- 19:24It's kind of like a fixed cost.
- 19:25You develop this and you can use it.
- 19:27But here, every time somebody put in an inquiry, you have to deploy your computing resource, which is hugely expensive.
- 19:35And Chinese companies are really short of CPU at the moment to train the models, not to say for deployment.
- 19:42So that, again, that limit on China's GPU resources, again, also
- 19:50kind of undermine user experience, right?
- 19:53mean, so because companies don't want you to access the most powerful and most advanced model.
- 19:59And so, yeah.
- 20:01So you're talking about the US chips acts and other limits on Chinese access to the most powerful GPUs.
- 20:09How much of an impact is that really having on the Chinese AIS?
- 20:13It definitely has a very big impact.
- 20:15mean, because this is really the biggest bottleneck on the development of Chinese AI farms, especially the big tech companies.
- 20:24You probably have read in recent weeks some of the reports in Financial Times and also Journal saying that, mean, this kind of expert control doesn't seem, the US expert control
- 20:36program doesn't seem to be very effective.
- 20:38Now it's even cheaper to buy CPU in China than in the United States because
- 20:43There are these kind of export restriction laws are full of loopholes.
- 20:47And by the way, it's not that difficult to smuggle Nivea's H100.
- 20:54It's not that big.
- 20:56There's a story that a lot of the Chinese students, everyone bring back H100.
- 21:08But this is just one of the ways.
- 21:10mean, I'm sure there are 100 million other ways that Chinese companies can get around it.
- 21:14But it will be hard for the Chinese big tech giants like Alibaba and Tencent because these companies, these are big companies, right?
- 21:22mean, so they will put compliance.
- 21:26They will highly value compliance.
- 21:28They have business operation everywhere.
- 21:30So this company will definitely...
- 21:34suffer a great deal.
- 21:35And in fact, Alibaba, which operates China's leading cloud business now, want to cut back some of the cloud access from small and medium sized companies because even they are
- 21:46running out of this capacity.
- 21:48And that definitely has an impact.
- 21:52Now, on the other hand, so in the short term, it seems the US program has worked.
- 21:58But in the medium and long run, it's also creating a big problem for the US.
- 22:03first because this kind of restriction, it's also very costly for the US in a way it's counterproductive in a way because you are restricting your own companies to sell to a
- 22:18very lucrative Chinese market while your allies may not be restricting it.
- 22:25so in fact, a lot of the US toolmakers suffer a lot of, suffer tremendous loss because of that.
- 22:34because companies in Japan and Korea, or Netherlands, they were not restricted in selling to Chinese companies, while US companies are.
- 22:44And by the way, I also need to mention that I think the US got really lucky with the AI boom.
- 22:51If the US did not experience this huge AI boom, this kind of extra restriction would really hurt.
- 23:01the business operation of companies like Nvidia.
- 23:03If you may recall a few years ago, Nvidia even felt bankruptcy because of all these restrictions.
- 23:10that's why, know, so a lot of the adverse impact of the US export restriction were not really felt, to be honest, thanks to the AI boom.
- 23:22So if we consider that counterfactual.
- 23:24So first is hurting US business and in a way indirectly will harm US innovation because you need
- 23:30the Chinese market, you need that profit in order to supply and fry.
- 23:34Just look at Intel, which recently cut, you know, suffered a huge loss in the equity market.
- 23:41Because China accounted 35 % of its revenue and the US government want Intel to succeed in US to build more factories in the US and develop more in the US, in a way cutting back the
- 23:56business in China.
- 23:57And the company really suffered.
- 23:59Right.
- 24:00mean, and I'm not saying that that was the single China was the single most important contributing factor, but it definitely had played a role in hurting Intel's business.
- 24:11Right.
- 24:12But more importantly, above all, all these export restrictions is incentivizing China to become more self -sufficient.
- 24:18And you are seeing Huawei, for instance, you know, at the beginning did suffer a loss, but in the past couple of years, it's doing phenomenally well.
- 24:28And it's it's
- 24:30It's iPhone businesses back, right?
- 24:31I mean, and people were teasing while Huawei was releasing its new tripod, try screens, a phone, vis -a -vis the Apple iPhone, right?
- 24:43mean, and it also closely aligned the public and the private incentives.
- 24:52because now companies like Alibaba and Tencent, these are the big tech companies, they were not able to access Nivea chips.
- 24:57They have to buy it from Huawei, right?
- 24:59I mean, so in a way they are contributing to the profits of Huawei and that becomes like a virtual cycle that continue to nurture China's development.
- 25:09Now, nobody knows at what point China will become really become self -sufficient and because the go -go post
- 25:17keep moving because the US is also moving ahead very rapidly.
- 25:21This is something that we don't know.
- 25:23But from an academic standpoint, we are evaluating the trade -off between the short -term benefits to the US and the long -term loss.
- 25:31So there's a lot of variables.
- 25:34But in a way, what we see the US is doing right now, we see very often a lot of these export control and restrictions.
- 25:44They don't seem to be very well thought out and there's not a very clear feedback mechanism to evaluate success.
- 25:51And I think this is something that we should query.
- 25:54Has the US government done enough to evaluate what it is doing and whether it's effective or not?
- 26:03The other thing that is happening in the background is on the Chinese side, the shift in the Chinese government's approach more generally to the economy since the pandemic.
- 26:13And there was a fairly shocking statistic in the Financial Times recently that there was something like in 2018, there were 50 ,000 venture -backed startups created in China and
- 26:222023 it was 1 ,200 and still going down.
- 26:25I want to ask you, first of all, is that accurate in terms of what you see in the market there?
- 26:29And if so, what does that mean for the Chinese AI sector?
- 26:33Right.
- 26:33mean, that is definitely compatible with my research findings in my book.
- 26:38actually have one chapter specifically devoted to assessing the impact of China's tech crackdown.
- 26:44Is that because of this kind of really heavy handed intervention during that 18 month law enforcement campaign, it had really undermined investor confidence and stifled
- 26:57entrepreneurial spirit.
- 26:58And as a result, both the domestic and international businesses
- 27:03investors have retreated from China's consumer tech businesses.
- 27:07And that explains this dramatic drop of funding into China's tech sector.
- 27:17But on the other hand, a lot of funding were channeled into the high tech sector, the so -called hardcore tech businesses like semiconductors, like EV, high manufacturing, et
- 27:31cetera.
- 27:32Right?
- 27:32I mean, but still overall, the whole macroeconomic environment in China in the past couple of years was not very good.
- 27:40Right?
- 27:41I mean, the Chinese economy was doing phenomenally well in early 2021.
- 27:46If we recall, China was the first one to recover from COVID and the first one to resume a production line where everybody else was suffering.
- 27:57But since then, everything has gone downhill.
- 28:00I mean, a series of policy missteps like the COVID pandemic control and this massive tech crackdown, as well as the property crackdowns, right?
- 28:16I mean, has directly contributed to China's economic slowdown.
- 28:20And that definitely reduced the appetize of the foreign investors in Chinese tech sector.
- 28:30So let me ask you just one or two more questions and shift back to AI and regulation.
- 28:36You talked about that China could, if it wanted to adopt a comprehensive AI law, but hasn't, but has some of these more narrow laws.
- 28:46How do you see the development of either regulatory coordination or at least regulatory discussions across the world around AI, given what's happening in Europe and the US and
- 29:00other places?
- 29:02There's a lot of cooperation going on, but so far we see that the dialogue has remained at quite a high level on agreeing on very basic principles like accountability, transparency,
- 29:19this kind of thing.
- 29:21We haven't yet seen very meaningful and significant and concrete proposals as to how to ensure AI safety.
- 29:32And part of the reason is because, I think most important reason is because the two biggest AI superpower, China and the US, are engaged in locking this intense tech rivalry.
- 29:46And how could you persuade China to really cooperate when at the same time the US is doubling down on export restrictions of AI chips to China, right?
- 29:58mean, so.
- 30:00Even though you have seen the two sides at the highest level actually have engaged in a couple of dialogues in San Francisco and then in Geneva, right?
- 30:12But they seems to be talking without really doing anything.
- 30:16So I would say lower your expectation of anything that will really generate from this AI international cooperation.
- 30:27But I do think that it's extremely important.
- 30:29Most importantly, I think the two sides should exert more efforts in understanding the risk of AI.
- 30:37Because so far, there is a huge controversy and everybody think that this is quite speculative.
- 30:46So if the Chinese government come to realize that there are serious threat, because if something is a serious threat to...
- 30:58its citizens and the society and the government.
- 31:02I'm pretty sure the Chinese government will deal with it very decisively, just like how it has been able to manage COVID -19.
- 31:10Xi Jinping was even touting its zero COVID strategy.
- 31:15The big problem is nobody knows where these things will become an existential threat and how likely it is.
- 31:21So think at least on that point, I think the US and China can at least cooperate.
- 31:27and engage more.
- 31:30And finally, what do you expect for the future development of AI in China in the next few years?
- 31:35I know it's a broad question, as you've accurately pointed out, there's different things that we talk about when we talk about AI, but what should people look to in the next few
- 31:44years in terms of the Chinese AI sector?
- 31:48China is actually really traveling very closely behind the US.
- 31:54Mark Zuckerberg was saying that Chinese companies are just four or five months behind us.
- 31:59And others say, look, I with the large language models, China is maybe a few years behind.
- 32:05But if we are talking about text to image, text to video, China is really on par.
- 32:10You saw recently, Huashou released this text to video app.
- 32:15It's really good.
- 32:18they recently, but they have to kind of, they can't really introduce it to the market because it's too expensive to deploy this thing, right?
- 32:25Because they're running out of CPU, right?
- 32:27I mean, so let's watch this space.
- 32:30This is not like semiconductor where China needs decades of experience and support in order to develop that sector.
- 32:41China already is hugely successful, particularly in the consumer.
- 32:46application side of AI.
- 32:48And that's why, you know, TikTok can take over the US market so quickly, right?
- 32:54I mean, this is a Chinese technology.
- 32:58But with regard to the hardware application, like robotics, for instance, China is also very good, right?
- 33:05Facial recognition, voice recognition, but everything else China is still lagging behind.
- 33:10And query how much the semi -concept AI chips might be also holding
- 33:15back China's development, although at the same time, people are saying that these days there's new technology that emerge.
- 33:21You don't really need that much chips computing power in order to train very powerful large language models.
- 33:27So I would definitely see Chinese as a very serious rival to the United States.
- 33:33But at the same time, I would also highlight that there is also a lot of swing states that are really catching up.
- 33:39mean, even UAE is producing really
- 33:43really good in cutting edge large language model.
- 33:46And again, this is a foreign -taran country that are able to mobilize tremendous resources to develop this technology.
- 33:52And they have money, they have energy, right?
- 33:55mean, and then they don't suffer from export restrictions like China, right?
- 34:00And in fact, US companies want to cooperate with G42 from the UAE, unlike in China, right?
- 34:07I so there's other big players that should be under a close radar.
- 34:13and closely watch as well.
- 34:16Great, Angela, thank you so much for your time.
- 34:18My pleasure.
- 34:18Thanks for having me.