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Why does Zelenskyy feel confident enough to send a 'cheeky' letter to Putin · THE DAILY BRIEF

• 0:00
  Speaker 2: In the Ukraine War.
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  Speaker 1: Today, President Zelenski sent President Putin a are the cheeky letter.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: In it, he said that the Russians ought to be
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: thinking about peace, They should be thinking about ending this war.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: And it was a very personal letter between Zelenski. He
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: was very cheeky towards Putin, even sort of implying that
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  Speaker 1: he was getting older and he didn't really understand what
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: was going on. But beneath the cheekiness of that letter,
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  Speaker 1: and that letter was copied incidentally to foreign ministries all
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  Speaker 1: over the world, there was another message, which was that
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  Speaker 1: the Ukrainians are not losing this war. We're doing okay,
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  Speaker 1: so says Zelenski, and the Russians need to understand what
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  Speaker 1: the cost is to them of this war, and Putin
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  Speaker 1: ought to think about that because we the Ukrainians, we've
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  Speaker 1: been ready for peace all the time. I mean, we
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: actually will have a ceasefire in place and then will
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  Speaker 1: negotiate about what it is that worries you if you'll
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  Speaker 1: only agree to a ceasefire. So he's trying to put
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  Speaker 1: the onus back on. Putin has been the foolish old
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  Speaker 1: man who can't see any other alternative, but continuing with
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  Speaker 1: a war which the Russians are not winning. Now, why
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  Speaker 1: does Zelenski feel as confident about that.
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  Speaker 2: As he seems to do well.
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  Speaker 1: Two reasons is really One is what's happening on the
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  Speaker 1: front lines, which is to say that the Russian offensive
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  Speaker 1: of the last two months has completely stalled. They're making
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  Speaker 1: no progress around Pacross where they want to, or getting
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  Speaker 1: into that area of the Dombas which they still want
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  Speaker 1: to control, and it doesn't look as if they'll be
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  Speaker 1: able to for the rest of this year. So although
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  Speaker 1: the Ukrainians are not winning the war on the battlefront,
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  Speaker 1: the Russians aren't winning it either, and the Ukrainians in
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  Speaker 1: some places are beginning to push them back. The second
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  Speaker 1: reason why Zelensky can feel confident is because of drones.
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  Speaker 1: The Ukrainians have developed their own drones FP fire point
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  Speaker 1: five point their own company, and they've developed the fire
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  Speaker 1: Point one, the Deep Strike UAV, the Deep Strike drone,
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  Speaker 1: which can go deep into Russia. Carries quite a small warhead,
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  Speaker 1: but it's very good. The five point two is a
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  Speaker 1: mid range strike drone. It's only for the battlefield, carries
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  Speaker 1: a much bigger warhead, does a lot of damage on
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  Speaker 1: the front lines. But this is also interesting. The FP
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  Speaker 1: fives of Flamingo, the cruise missile. It's not a drone,
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  Speaker 1: it's a missile. It looks like a V one from
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  Speaker 1: the Second World War. It was called Flamingo because the
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  Speaker 1: first time they cast the body of it, something went
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  Speaker 1: wrong in the metallogy and it all came out pink.
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  Speaker 2: So they all laughed and call it the Flamingo.
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  Speaker 1: And the Flamingo is a cruise missile that can go
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  Speaker 1: deep into Russia and it's got a very big warhead.
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  Speaker 1: And then this one, the FP seven, is a ballistic
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  Speaker 1: missile intended for the battlefield. It's similar to the American
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  Speaker 1: Attakan's billistic missile, but actually it's more than that, because
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  Speaker 1: the FP seven is being used as the basis of
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  Speaker 1: Ukraine's own air defense to replace the Patriot missile.
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  Speaker 2: Now they haven't got it yet.
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  Speaker 1: They're trying to develop it into what's called the Freyer system,
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  Speaker 1: which might be ready by as early as next year,
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  Speaker 1: and then they won't need Patriots if they've got the
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  Speaker 1: FP seven and it works the way they think that
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  Speaker 1: it might.
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  Speaker 2: So that's one of the.
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  Speaker 1: Key reasons why the Ukrainians are feeling a great deal
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  Speaker 1: more confident about their ability to hang on in this war,
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  Speaker 1: which gives President Putin quite a problem. The Russian economy
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  Speaker 1: is stuttering. It's not going to collapse because it's a
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  Speaker 1: big economy, but it is stuttering. Last year, inflation was
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  Speaker 1: at about ten percent, but interest rates are over twenty
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  Speaker 1: one percent in order to rain that. In this year,
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  Speaker 1: inflation is down to about seven or eight percent, but
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  Speaker 1: interest rates are still at least fourteen fourteen and a
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  Speaker 1: half percent to control that. The problem is there's not
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  Speaker 1: much cash in Russia. There's not much credit. It's all
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  Speaker 1: going to the defense part of the economy, and the
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  Speaker 1: federal budget is spending forty percent of all of its
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  Speaker 1: cash on defense. And yet that defense industry is still
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  Speaker 1: struggling because even this year's defense budget is twenty eight
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  Speaker 1: billion dollars out of pocket. They're already overspending by twenty
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  Speaker 1: eight billion dollars just in this one year.
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  Speaker 2: Now.
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  Speaker 1: All of that, of course, can be compensated for by
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  Speaker 1: official changes, by fiscal policy, by things that government can do.
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  Speaker 1: But there's something else which is more important than that
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  Speaker 1: in my view, which is a structural problem the Russians have.
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  Speaker 2: It's their labor problem.
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  Speaker 1: The Russian population is one hundred and forty two million,
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  Speaker 1: of whom ninety four million are working aged adults, and
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  Speaker 1: the problem they have is that they have an immediate
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  Speaker 1: labor shortage. They have a labor shortage now of at
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  Speaker 1: least one point five million, and that will grow even
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  Speaker 1: on present trends, to four million by twenty thirty.
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  Speaker 2: Add to that the fact that about.
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  Speaker 1: A million young men fled the war when partial mobilization
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  Speaker 1: was introduced, and if there is another mobilization, at least
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  Speaker 1: a million will flee again. Some of these people have
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  Speaker 1: come back, We're not sure how many, but they've lost
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  Speaker 1: up to a million people, and the casualties in the
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  Speaker 1: war so far are between one and a half and
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  Speaker 1: two million. The bottom line, by most independent estimates is
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  Speaker 1: that by the year twenty thirty, the Russians will have
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  Speaker 1: to find between ten and eleven million more workers, and
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  Speaker 1: if the war goes on, who is to say how
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  Speaker 1: big that figure may be in another three or four years.
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  Speaker 1: Which brings us back to President Zelenski's letter to President Putin,
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  Speaker 1: because the subtext of that letter was also that we Ukrainians,
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  Speaker 1: we are fighting for our lives and so we have
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  Speaker 1: no choice but to carry on. We don't want to,
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  Speaker 1: but if we have to, we will. But you don't
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  Speaker 1: have to, mister President. You are suffering, Your economy is suffering.
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  Speaker 1: So the message is we can last as long as
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  Speaker 1: it takes. But mister Putin, can you