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Political Crowd-Out: Record Spending Squeezes Local Advertisers · Leading Local Insights

• 0:34
  Rick Ducey: Welcome to BIA's Leading a Local Podcast, where we talk about things that are happening in the local advertising media and agency and client space.
• 0:43
  Rick Ducey: Today we're going to be talking about political crowd out as we get closer to the political season.
• 0:49
  Rick Ducey: We've already faced some of this in the early part of the season, and we've got the elections coming up soon.
• 0:55
  Rick Ducey: Political crowd out is what happens when TV stations have to reserve inventory for political candidates, 45 days out and 60 days out from the early elections, and then you get into the general elections as well.
• 1:12
  Rick Ducey: So we're talking about a lot of money.
• 1:14
  Rick Ducey: Today we're going to be hearing about this from a few different perspectives.
• 1:18
  Rick Ducey: First, I'd like to introduce Todd Weisman, who has uh started a new column for TV News Check, coming up with uh really interesting insights and information about different aspects of the media industry.
• 1:29
  Rick Ducey: And this uh podcast episode actually was inspired, Todd, by your by your column on what is happening with political crowd out and its impact on local businesses.
• 1:38
  Rick Ducey: A lot of us in this space um think about what's happening on the media and the candidate campaign and agency side of things, but we kind of forget about well, the hometown businesses, the local businesses, the multi-locational regional businesses, they can impact it too because they literally get crowded out.
• 1:54
  Rick Ducey: The inventory goes at lowest unit rate, and uh demand, uh depending upon the market you're in, is pretty high.
• 2:00
  Rick Ducey: And so you can't be on TV for uh a couple of different periods in this uh political season.
• 2:08
  Rick Ducey: So we're gonna talk about that, Todd.
• 2:10
  Rick Ducey: Um we're gonna um uh hear some of your thoughts uh and then what sides are we talking about?
• 2:16
  Rick Ducey: How much money and how is it being spent, where is it all going?
• 2:19
  Rick Ducey: So we've also got John Link from Ad Impact, who has uh worked with CBS uh political sales, and now as Ad Impact to talk about the dimensions of this market and kind of dynamics that are going on.
• 2:34
  Rick Ducey: And then also from BIA, we have our own Selen Mele, who is uh VP of forecasting, who will talk about um not just that has been spent or is being spent, but what it looks like going forward in this marketplace.
• 2:45
  Rick Ducey: So let me just come back and say a few more words about Todd as I invite you to um kind of kick things off here.
• 2:51
  Rick Ducey: Um Todd's uh uh founder of Riptide Creative and Advertising, which is a full service ad agency.
• 2:58
  Rick Ducey: Um, Todd, you've been in the business for 25 years, uh, media and ad side.
• 3:03
  Rick Ducey: You've worked with over 4,000 local, regional, and national marketing campaigns, uh coming up to over half a billion dollars um worth of um revenue.
• 3:11
  Rick Ducey: And you've specialized in different verticals legal, home improvement, automotive, franchise, healthcare, and of course, for today's topic, political, which we're particularly excited to hear about.
• 3:21
  Rick Ducey: So let me um start off with you.
• 3:24
  Rick Ducey: You recently wrote this uh column for TV News Check, Ghost Towns of Local TV, how political windfalls are killing main street advertising.
• 3:34
  Rick Ducey: And here, your point is that local TV stations are huge beneficiaries of political ad spending.
• 3:39
  Rick Ducey: We at BIA talk about kind of the piano key spending, where in even years, where there's a political um event happening, either midterms or general elections, a lot of money goes to TV stations.
• 3:50
  Rick Ducey: And so they like that.
• 3:51
  Rick Ducey: But that money is being spent on inventory that therefore other advertisers like local businesses um can't get to.
• 3:59
  Rick Ducey: It's too too expensive or it's sold.
• 4:02
  Rick Ducey: It's really hard to get into uh the local um news, for example.
• 4:06
  Rick Ducey: So the point of your article is that the notion of political out um crowd out is impacting local businesses.
• 4:12
  Rick Ducey: And what can we do about that?
• 4:14
  Rick Ducey: So can you share some of the thoughts you had in that column and and generally what you see happening with this notion of political crowd out and its impact on local businesses?
• 4:22
  Todd Wiseman: Sure.
• 4:23
  Todd Wiseman: And uh good to be here, Rick.
• 4:24
  Todd Wiseman: Thank you for the for the invitation.
• 4:26
  Todd Wiseman: It it's painful for the local advertisers.
• 4:29
  Todd Wiseman: They, you know, we we know the political season is coming, and we would plan our annuals and our quarterlies ahead of time and say your rate rate is gonna have to be X in order to run during this political window.
• 4:41
  Todd Wiseman: But a lot of times they just don't run and they they move the money somewhere else.
• 4:46
  Todd Wiseman: And and that's not a the problem with that is uh broadcast television is still an excellent vehicle for getting results, especially uh if you're targeting adults 35 plus and in certain categories, they need it and they have to go dark.
• 5:02
  Todd Wiseman: Their lead source goes in the dark for 45 days or sometimes 60 days.
• 5:07
  Todd Wiseman: And and the bad thing for the television stations is that the the political L UR, the lowest unit rate, is hurting us.
• 5:14
  Todd Wiseman: They hurting these TV stations.
• 5:16
  Todd Wiseman: You know, we're making more money on the local furniture store, the the home improvement uh company, the the car advertisers.
• 5:23
  Todd Wiseman: We we make more money with that.
• 5:24
  Todd Wiseman: And and actually the revenue is much lower than we're forced to eat with the with the with the political.
• 5:30
  Todd Wiseman: Now, we do make that up, and I'm sure uh you all understand the pack money, right?
• 5:36
  Todd Wiseman: When the pack money comes in, we don't we don't have to give them lotion rate.
• 5:39
  Todd Wiseman: And in fact, we absolutely crush them on rates.
• 5:44
  Todd Wiseman: So as an example, it might be a we might get $500 in a today show, $8,000, whatever it is.
• 5:50
  Todd Wiseman: Easy math.
• 5:51
  Todd Wiseman: And we sold someone uh a spot that that that year for $200, and now the L U R is $200.
• 5:58
  Todd Wiseman: When the PAC money comes, we take them to the highest level.
• 6:01
  Todd Wiseman: So if that's $500 a spot, we now charge $5,000 or $6,000 or whatever we can get.
• 6:07
  Todd Wiseman: Uh that's a whole different topic.
• 6:10
  Todd Wiseman: So there's ways to kind of make up the money, but again, the local advertisers are hurting and it does, and and and and there are sales reps, they they're on commission, right?
• 6:22
  Todd Wiseman: These are local AEs are on commission and their booking business is gone for that money.
• 6:27
  Todd Wiseman: And the stations act like they're gonna help out in making sure these guys are taken care of, but they're really not.
• 6:33
  Todd Wiseman: It's just uh it's a problem.
• 6:35
  Todd Wiseman: So not not take this too long.
• 6:37
  Todd Wiseman: The the solution, as we'll get to in the end, is to limit the number of spots a particular candidate can take on any given day or in any given campaign.
• 6:47
  Todd Wiseman: I'm not saying they can't take it, but you can't we they can't take it all.
• 6:52
  Todd Wiseman: You can't go crazy, right?
• 6:53
  Todd Wiseman: We have to limit the number of spots that the lo L UR is is allowed to take.
• 6:58
  Todd Wiseman: And after you hit that limit, you gotta pay the rate.
• 7:00
  Todd Wiseman: Whatever rate we tell you, you have to pay it.
• 7:02
  Rick Ducey: And who who's gonna be setting that limit, Todd?
• 7:05
  Rick Ducey: Can you say that again?
• 7:06
  Rick Ducey: In your view here, who who sets that limit and you know, limits the inventory for the tax?
• 7:13
  Todd Wiseman: Oh, yeah.
• 7:13
  Todd Wiseman: For the for LUR, for Canada advertising, we have we have to give them what they want.
• 7:18
  Todd Wiseman: That is the law, right?
• 7:20
  Todd Wiseman: So that law has to change uh in order for the stations to benefit from that.
• 7:27
  Rick Ducey: And the advertising um we're not lawyers here, I don't think, but um, is that the FCC or Congress that does that?
• 7:33
  Rick Ducey: I mean, we've seen the national capital change.
• 7:35
  Rick Ducey: Some people thought that was Congress's turf, but um Um Chairman Carr went ahead and and you know changed that rule.
• 7:42
  Rick Ducey: So who knows, right?
• 7:44
  Todd Wiseman: Yeah, I I think it's Congress.
• 7:45
  Todd Wiseman: Uh you know, they're they're controlling their own destiny as best they can, and they want the lowest unit rate, which is fine.
• 7:53
  Todd Wiseman: Uh and we do make a lot of it up with the packs, but again, the purpose of the article is to say this is a problem for local advertisers.
• 8:00
  Todd Wiseman: I mean they the furniture stores can't advertise their sales, the personal engine lawyers can't be the top of mind.
• 8:05
  Todd Wiseman: The uh the guy who's selling you know the the the the bathroom remodel, who depends, who depends on the direct response of that, or the GOP guy saw weight loss, they have to be on.
• 8:16
  Todd Wiseman: That's where they get their business.
• 8:18
  Todd Wiseman: And these other avenues work okay, but not as well as broadcast television.
• 8:24
  Rick Ducey: Right.
• 8:24
  Rick Ducey: So let me um send in uh turn to you and um uh have you share some of the data you've been working with.
• 8:30
  Rick Ducey: So, Senant, you're uh vice president of forecasting data analysis um for us here at BIA Advisory Services.
• 8:36
  Rick Ducey: You direct our forecasting programs uh across 18 different media channels.
• 8:40
  Rick Ducey: Today we're focusing on TV over the air local TV stations, but uh political advertising um is acquired in a number of the different media channels.
• 8:49
  Rick Ducey: Social video and others have been particularly important lately.
• 8:52
  Rick Ducey: And then our forecast brings it down to each of the 210 um local markets, and it's we always focus on local advertising.
• 8:59
  Rick Ducey: And before you joined us at BIA, um you worked in the agency side doing media cost uh forecasting at companies like Horizon and working for brand clients, Electronic Arts and Proctor and Gamble, um, helping to shape their media strategy.
• 9:15
  Rick Ducey: So you've come at this from a little bit of a different background, but I wonder if you could share um some aspects of the forecast you've been building.
• 9:22
  Rick Ducey: Uh and I know you're just finishing up our latest update of a forecast.
• 9:26
  Rick Ducey: So we're sort of in this transition period, but um to the extent you have some numbers, um, can you just kind of quantify that um difference between um political years, non-political years, and where you see um this midterm um kind of election year with the primaries and then the general election coming up?
• 9:44
  Rick Ducey: How is the money happening with from a forecasting perspective?
• 9:48
  Rick Ducey: What do you see looking ahead?
• 9:51
  Senan Mele: Yeah, uh the way uh thank you, Eric.
• 9:55
  Senan Mele: So the way uh political code out looks like um in our forecast is that it really changed the revenue mix of local television during an election year.
• 10:08
  Senan Mele: So in 2026, BIA forecast uh TV OTA to grow by about 15%, from roughly 15 billion to 17 billion, but most, if not all of that increase, I guess I'll say most of that increase is coming from political advertising.
• 10:28
  Senan Mele: And our political heavy category um rise from roughly 1 billion in 2025 to about, let's say almost 4 billion in 2026, which really increased the share of political advertising from within TV OTA from roughly 7% to um to 21%.
• 10:55
  Senan Mele: So that shows the dramatic increase in political spend that happened during um election years, especially to our TVOTA.
• 11:07
  Senan Mele: And all the while, core commercial TV OTA spend, meaning spend coming from over local businesses, actually declined by um roughly two percent based on our estimate.
• 11:21
  Senan Mele: Looking in terms of dollars, though, that is a significant um decline in in advertising spend.
• 11:30
  Senan Mele: And um where I think this is important is that while the TV OTA um core spend, right, the spend coming from local business, while that's declining, BI is also forecasting local advertising, excluding political, to go by about 3.8 percent um as a whole, including all of the other media.
• 11:56
  Senan Mele: So what this means is that those businesses are not necessarily disappearing, they are just uh reallocating their spend when as much as they are able to toward over media, some of which um being CT V OTT, social video, um, digital video, um and and such.
• 12:18
  Senan Mele: So the point here is that uh political advertising does create uh called out as uh Todd has mentioned, and it does lead uh local businesses to have to find uh other alternatives to to get an inventory, and this is reallocating uh the spend toward um over media.
• 12:43
  Senan Mele: Let me know if that answers your question.
• 12:47
  Rick Ducey: Yep, it does.
• 12:48
  Rick Ducey: And there's a couple of things I want to come back to in a bit, but um John, first I want to get you um uh into this discussion as well.
• 12:55
  Rick Ducey: So um uh John, um I mentioned um senior vice president of uh data at Ad Impact.
• 13:02
  Rick Ducey: You've got experience um kind of on the selling side, and um just we uh BIA, I guess in disclosure, uh people know, I guess, that uh we've been collaborating with Ad Impact uh from Data Views, and we share through our platform some of the Ad Impact data that we find so valuable.
• 13:17
  Rick Ducey: Um, and then um Sinan and um and John uh work together closely.
• 13:23
  Rick Ducey: But we love what Ad Impact has brought to the market and uh not just the data, but also some of the thinking behind the data to really help contextualize it and give it a little bit more power and meaning as people try to figure out what the heck's going on with all this political spending.
• 13:38
  Rick Ducey: Um but from so from your sense, I mean, you've got a pretty rigorous methodology at Ad Impact and the models you've been building um always um evolving, as we know on our side.
• 13:49
  Rick Ducey: Um there's a British statistician and and member of parliament whose name I always forget, I think it might be George Box, who said um all forecasts are wrong, but some are useful.
• 14:01
  Rick Ducey: Uh so those of us in the forecasting business strive to at least be useful and always trying to get better.
• 14:07
  Rick Ducey: But tell us um a bit about um your view of uh the political broadcast market, um, particularly TV.
• 14:14
  Rick Ducey: And I know we're all struggling trying to understand CTV, which um has some transparency and and data issues, but that's a fast growth medium in its whole business, too, of political broadcasting and advertising.
• 14:26
  Rick Ducey: Um so what what are you guys up to?
• 14:28
  Rick Ducey: And what are you seeing over an added impact?
• 14:31
  John Link: Thanks, Rick.
• 14:32
  John Link: And yeah, I think as anybody who tries to prognosticate just tries to be right enough, I think is the uh the barometer at times.
• 14:39
  John Link: But there's a couple nuances here, right?
• 14:41
  John Link: We always have what we're seeing cycle over cycle is generally new records uh in terms of total spending.
• 14:47
  John Link: What I mean by that, if you look at the presidential cycle that we came off of just, I mean gosh, a year and a half ago at this point, we certainly set a new spending record.
• 14:56
  John Link: We then came into a midterm where we eliminated about $3 billion of presidential spending.
• 15:02
  John Link: But even with that, we are anticipating seeing another record-setting year, uh, about $11.6 billion, which would represent the highest cycle ever, regardless of presidential or midterm.
• 15:14
  John Link: Now, with all of that money, obviously there's more eyes, there's more opportunity.
• 15:19
  John Link: And you are correct, there's a lot of nuance here in terms of how this is going to impact traditional advertisers and how do the political advertisers play in that space.
• 15:30
  John Link: I think the one thing to focus on here, though, is that with this cycle, the uniqueness of it is that about 50% of the overall spend is going to be condensed into about 10 states.
• 15:41
  John Link: So within those 10 states, think of it as, you know, maybe have like 50, 60 markets, something like that.
• 15:46
  John Link: So those are going to be the states and markets in the DMAs that are significantly impacted, right?
• 15:51
  John Link: From a rate level, unit rate level perspective.
• 15:54
  John Link: Todd, you talked about sort of that squeeze out and those folks that rely on linear television not being able to get as much or any of it as possible.
• 16:03
  John Link: So I do think if you're within those 10 states, 10, 11 states, let's say, you have to be judicious and careful in terms of your approach.
• 16:12
  John Link: It's not going to impact as much out of the states.
• 16:15
  John Link: There's certainly going to be impact and it'll be selective impact.
• 16:18
  John Link: But I think the the core focus here is that to really focus in on what your footprint looks like.
• 16:22
  John Link: And it's going to be different state by state, market by market.
• 16:26
  John Link: That's one of the unique things.
• 16:27
  John Link: And then behind it all, um, there are ways to sort of counterbalance that.
• 16:32
  John Link: I think the fear here is that if these traditional advertisers can't see that linear impressions or can't see those linear impressions, do they go to an OTA CTV space, right?
• 16:43
  John Link: And if they're there, do they come back and do they come back at the pace that linear folks want them to come back?
• 16:49
  John Link: So those are the things that we think about here at Ad Impact and really try to provide some data points to help guide uh what we're seeing and then really what we could be seeing from a future perspective.
• 16:59
  Rick Ducey: Yeah, that's um really interesting.
• 17:02
  Rick Ducey: And and the idea of the CTV, OTT, which the industry is trying to redefine again, I guess, uh via ad bureaus and IABs out there trying to help us understand whatever it is we think that means today.
• 17:13
  Rick Ducey: Um but yeah, I mean, I think of course the local TV stations sell CTV along with the best of them.
• 17:19
  Rick Ducey: So it's uh another channel that brings revenue into them, um, as well as, of course, being competitive with um other entities uh bringing CTV inventory into these local markets.
• 17:29
  Rick Ducey: And um, the targetability for CTV is really interesting, of course, to the candidates, the campaigns and the PACs and so on.
• 17:36
  Rick Ducey: Do you, um, John, um, I want to stay with you for a second here, actually two seconds, but the next one is um for the notion of crowd out, who do you have any visibility into who is getting crowded out for these businesses, particularly during those windows, uh, 45 days for the primaries and the 60 days before the general election?
• 17:54
  Rick Ducey: Um, but um and you know, do they who is it like and in um Todd, obviously you have experience here too, but I mean, is it furniture stores?
• 18:03
  Rick Ducey: Is it um, you know, um consumer products, or is it kind of across the board of all the different categories that just can't afford it or it's not there to buy?
• 18:14
  John Link: I'll take the first swing at that, Rick.
• 18:16
  John Link: And I would say anybody who's paying the lowest unit rate, right?
• 18:19
  John Link: If you're towards the bottom of that rate card, you're the susceptible entity.
• 18:23
  John Link: That could be the direct response, folks who buy on a rotational basis and aren't guaranteed clearance.
• 18:28
  John Link: Those are probably the first to go.
• 18:30
  John Link: You probably see a little bit less of the station promos, those type of things.
• 18:33
  John Link: Broadcasters are certainly going to want to find inventory.
• 18:36
  John Link: You hit it on it as well, Rick.
• 18:38
  John Link: I would also offer another nuance is that we're really only talking about the general window, which is 60 days out of the election.
• 18:44
  John Link: I believe it's September 4th this year.
• 18:46
  John Link: So we're coming up on it.
• 18:47
  John Link: But you really have that sort of um, you know contention of the the the spending within that time as well.
• 18:56
  John Link: Um I do think broadcasters were anticipating not only the change in the FCC ruling, which I think we're gonna talk about, but also just the uptick in uh you know uh amount of uh pressure on inventory.
• 19:09
  John Link: So I do think broadcasters specifically have been planning on that.
• 19:12
  John Link: And I think digital uh broadcasters and sellers have been sort of anticipating um trying to maneuver around some of that additional inventory as well.
• 19:21
  Rick Ducey: Is that what you've been saying, Todd?
• 19:23
  Todd Wiseman: Also Absolutely.
• 19:25
  Todd Wiseman: Uh now uh the TV stations are smart, right?
• 19:29
  Todd Wiseman: So there's there are workarounds.
• 19:31
  Todd Wiseman: Uh you know, we've got OUR based on the time period, but you know, like you mentioned, John, uh you mentioned you know ROS, but we might open a time period up that's not a traditional time period.
• 19:43
  Todd Wiseman: So let's say that they're buying um you know the 6 to 7 a.m.
• 19:47
  Todd Wiseman: news.
• 19:47
  Todd Wiseman: We might open it up to 6 to 9 a.m.
• 19:50
  Todd Wiseman: And I might I don't have an OUR for that, right?
• 19:53
  Todd Wiseman: So we can work it out.
• 19:55
  Todd Wiseman: And there's there are ways to get it done, but a lot of times again, it comes down to there's a there's a finite amount of inventory in each of these programs, so we can run all the tricks we want because we we can get them in, but then what's left over the packs come in and take it all, and and the broadcasters are taking that money.
• 20:14
  Todd Wiseman: I mean, again, it can it comes down to I have no problem with OUR, no problem with pack, no problem with any of it, but I do have a problem with unlimited number of spots that they can take.
• 20:26
  Todd Wiseman: I mean, I if it's me, I would be I would force them to just be political, it's half the inventory, local keeps the other half.
• 20:33
  Todd Wiseman: The broadcasters aren't gonna go for that because you know the the guys at the top are making a lot of money on political.
• 20:39
  Todd Wiseman: You know, you you're you're hearing the numbers.
• 20:41
  Todd Wiseman: They might not agree to that, but I'm just saying if you're a believer in local advertising and you don't want the ghost towns that I mentioned, and you don't want the local AEs to be out of business, you know, there needs to be a happy medium.
• 20:53
  Todd Wiseman: But I don't I don't see that changing anytime soon.
• 20:56
  Rick Ducey: Yeah.
• 20:56
  Rick Ducey: So one thing, um I guess a shoe we have been waiting to drop has dropped.
• 21:01
  Rick Ducey: Um in the Supreme Court, there has been this case that uh was just decided, uh NRSC uh versus FEC.
• 21:08
  Rick Ducey: Um and the idea is there's a lot of money out there that could be spent, uh, but it can't be coordinated with candidates.
• 21:15
  Rick Ducey: Uh and so that keeps them out of the LUR um part of the marketplace.
• 21:20
  Rick Ducey: Now, with the Supreme Court ruling that that was just issued, um, that kind of coordination can happen.
• 21:25
  Rick Ducey: And so what does that mean uh for political advertising and um revenue for broadcasters and and the campaigns?
• 21:33
  Rick Ducey: If it cannot be coordinated, um there's gonna be more demand, and that could be at the LUR.
• 21:39
  Rick Ducey: I know that John, you've been thinking about this and writing about it.
• 21:42
  Rick Ducey: But what do you what's gonna happen next here?
• 21:44
  Rick Ducey: What are people gonna do about it?
• 21:47
  John Link: Trickiest kind of I I I I probably know too much about this court case uh that I never wanted to know.
• 21:52
  John Link: The interesting part is, yeah, you're correct.
• 21:54
  John Link: Right around the end of June, uh the FEC uh overturned, or the Supreme Court, I should say, overturned the old um expenditure limits, which was Colorado 2.
• 22:03
  John Link: That's been in place for, my goodness, 25 plus years.
• 22:06
  John Link: So it essentially had these really tiny caps.
• 22:09
  John Link: I think it was about 65k per house rate in about 4 million per Senate.
• 22:13
  John Link: What that does now is it opens it up to this unlimited um sort of uh coordinated spending.
• 22:18
  John Link: Now, let's talk about the numbers, right?
• 22:21
  John Link: It really, if you look back at uh the past cycle 2024, it represents about 7% of the potential money, right?
• 22:28
  John Link: And I'm talking about that being hybrid spend plus non coordinated party spend.
• 22:32
  John Link: It's about 7%.
• 22:33
  John Link: Of the money that we saw in 2024.
• 22:36
  John Link: So if you look at 7% of $11.6 billion, while it's a huge aggregate figure, percentage-wise, it's not as impactful as you're going to think.
• 22:45
  John Link: It also is an opportunity.
• 22:47
  John Link: I would make the distinct argument, I think it's going to play out that we're going to see higher LURs than we've ever seen in past cycles, right?
• 22:55
  John Link: Oh, interesting.
• 22:56
  John Link: In the past, you know, we talked about there was a six to seven A news pension, right?
• 23:01
  John Link: In the past, maybe that LUR would have come in at $350,000, $400 a unit.
• 23:06
  John Link: I think because of the demand and because of the increased demand with this ruling, you're going to see those LURs start to pop up.
• 23:14
  John Link: Now, you have to still manage that traditional inventory.
• 23:17
  John Link: Does that mean it's going to be tougher for those folks to clear?
• 23:19
  John Link: It may.
• 23:20
  John Link: There are ways to handle that, but I do think you're going to see increased LURs.
• 23:24
  John Link: I think you're going to see lower LUR clearances where those candidate and coordinated buys are going to have to go to higher levels or to non-preemptible levels to see the clearance that they want.
• 23:34
  John Link: It all has to happen so fast, right?
• 23:36
  John Link: It's all going to happen in 60 days.
• 23:39
  John Link: So after those 60 days, that money is no longer.
• 23:42
  John Link: So the Stevie stations have to figure out a way to get as much of that as they can within that time.
• 23:47
  Rick Ducey: Yep.
• 23:47
  Rick Ducey: And and Tana, no, you've been talking about this and thinking about this.
• 23:51
  Rick Ducey: What impact do you think this decision is going to have?
• 23:55
  Rick Ducey: And how can broadcasters and I mean you were talking about let's uh partition an inventory, maybe the Congress does this, and to okay, it makes sense to have some kind of LUR inventory, which now we've just increased the demand for that with the Supreme Court ruling.
• 24:09
  Rick Ducey: But some you know broadcasters should still be allowed to control.
• 24:12
  Rick Ducey: So we can have a functioning marketplace for you know the two months uh leading up to general and uh you know month and a half uh before primaries.
• 24:19
  Rick Ducey: That's a good chunk of the year.
• 24:21
  Rick Ducey: As you you know point out, John, that is in a concentration of a handful of markets, um, you know, 10 or 12 markets say, um, but it's still significant industry-wide.
• 24:31
  Rick Ducey: Any other thoughts about this Supreme Court decision and its um impact, opportunities, challenges that you that you're seeing, Todd?
• 24:40
  Todd Wiseman: Well, I think first I'd like to, you know, John, you're correct.
• 24:43
  Todd Wiseman: You're 100% correct on the LUR moving up, right?
• 24:46
  Todd Wiseman: So with that limit inventory, when though when those spots are gone, though they get preempted and they have to go up to the next level, and the next level and it keeps going.
• 24:54
  Todd Wiseman: So as the pressure comes, the rates go up.
• 24:56
  Todd Wiseman: But the the the broadcasters have no interest in trying to save the local market because they are making so much money on political.
• 25:06
  Todd Wiseman: I can guarantee you that the conversations that the big broadcast owners have on Wall Street are guess what's coming next year, right?
• 25:15
  Todd Wiseman: And look at the numbers that the DIA is predicting.
• 25:18
  Todd Wiseman: This is gonna be unbelievable, right?
• 25:20
  Todd Wiseman: And and that's what they want.
• 25:22
  Todd Wiseman: I mean, they have to make money, they're making money, they're gonna continue to make money.
• 25:25
  Todd Wiseman: So, you know, when I wrote my article, it was in defense of local, but there is no one on Wall Street or in any of these broadcasts that have any interest in worrying about that.
• 25:36
  Todd Wiseman: They want political money and they're counting on it.
• 25:40
  Todd Wiseman: They're you know, they're swinging from the chandeliers saying, look what's happened this year.
• 25:46
  Rick Ducey: That's an interesting picture.
• 25:48
  Rick Ducey: So, Sandra, let me let me come back to you.
• 25:50
  Rick Ducey: So you're um you're talking about um the current midterm, um, but you've also been working on what it looks like for the general election in 28.
• 25:58
  Rick Ducey: Um, how have you been thinking about this Supreme Court decision um and you know how how this is going to move forward for both this midterm cycle and maybe looking ahead to the general election?
• 26:10
  Senan Mele: Yeah, um my approach here is really not to say that, okay, because of this decision, we will see X amount of dollar um added nationally to the political landscape.
• 26:26
  Senan Mele: Um because, like John and Todd have mentioned, the bigger issue that is that it increases the ability of political buyers to um access the inventory at favorable rates, and that puts more pressure on the finite broadcast inventory.
• 26:45
  Senan Mele: So I think the effect will be highly market specific.
• 26:51
  Senan Mele: And John has briefly alluded to that earlier um on the nature of political spending, especially um especially uh during this cycle.
• 27:04
  Senan Mele: But we will probably see uh the impact of this decision, specifically in markets that are highly competitive or toss-up.
• 27:14
  Senan Mele: And over markets might kind of feel that impact, but not to the extent that that we will see in in markets that uh are very competitive.
• 27:26
  Senan Mele: So to summarize, there will be a lot more political spending, but again, in this case, it will also be highly market specific.
• 27:36
  Senan Mele: And it's going to be looking into uh it's going to require looking into okay what was at spend level in those key markets before, and how that's changing after this decision has taken place to estimate what we can expect through the end of this year and uh um in the future for future political cycles.
• 28:02
  Senan Mele: Um, so again, a market with competitive Senate race, governor's race, or several House races can experience dramatically more pressure than any other DMA.
• 28:15
  Senan Mele: Now, the other issue with this is that um, and I think Todd pointed this out earlier.
• 28:24
  Senan Mele: Um local advertisers who are not political advertisers will likely have to find other media to reallocate their spend so that they can keep uh connecting with the audience, with their customers.
• 28:40
  Senan Mele: But the risk is that a lot of these advertisers might discover new media channels and realize that those media channels work.
• 28:50
  Senan Mele: And when the political um uh year is the political cycle is over, all of that budget might not come back to TV OTA.
• 29:01
  Senan Mele: That is the very real risk, as local advertisers have to find other media to reallocate their spend to.
• 29:09
  Senan Mele: So that's another lens uh for which we are looking for things on our end.
• 29:16
  Rick Ducey: Yeah, once I mean, we've been seeing that.
• 29:18
  Rick Ducey: Once some of these advertisers move some of their budget, their media weight, uh uh more into CTV in a way from linear, it's like, well, that worked out pretty well, actually.
• 29:28
  Rick Ducey: Maybe we should keep that mix and weight and wait CTV going forward.
• 29:32
  Rick Ducey: Um, well, this has been excellent.
• 29:34
  Rick Ducey: I really appreciate your thoughts and data and insights.
• 29:37
  Rick Ducey: Um, before we close out, I just want to give you each a chance to share any final thoughts about uh crowd out or um any fascinating facts that we might look look to um expect to happen in this uh political season uh currently, or maybe even looking ahead to the general.
• 29:52
  Rick Ducey: Any any kind of final thoughts?
• 29:54
  Rick Ducey: Uh Sonna, why don't we start with you?
• 29:57
  Senan Mele: Cool.
• 29:58
  Senan Mele: Yeah, so um again, as a whole, across all media, uh BI is forecasting non-political local advertising to grow by about 3.8% in 2026, excluding again, excluding political advertising.
• 30:15
  Senan Mele: So while there will definitely be some um coding out and displacement within TV OTA specifically, and uh the Supreme Court decision will accentuate that, um the non-political advertising spend will continue growing, um, even if within low single-digit rate, because local advertisers will be looking for over media to reallocate spend.
• 30:47
  Senan Mele: So that'll still be happening.
• 30:50
  Senan Mele: Um it's just uh watching for when the political cycle is over, what will be the impact of all of that as the does settle.
• 31:02
  Rick Ducey: Okay.
• 31:02
  Rick Ducey: Um, John, any final thoughts?
• 31:04
  John Link: Uh I'll give you a thought and something I'm gonna watch today.
• 31:08
  John Link: I I think the thought here is I I'm very excited to see where the digital CTV space ends up playing out at the end of this year, right?
• 31:17
  John Link: We saw it at about 21% for the presidential last year.
• 31:21
  John Link: We have it predicted at about 24, 25 percent.
• 31:24
  John Link: I'm curious, is that really the landing zone, or is it is there opportunity beyond that 25% really for them to take another step?
• 31:33
  John Link: It's it's curious because I do think their inventory approach is is uh advancing.
• 31:37
  John Link: I think that there are more premium impressions on the digital space, but um, is there an opportunity for them to sort of push past that quarter of the overall spending?
• 31:47
  John Link: Uh and then secondly, pay attention, there is an oral argument being held today.
• 31:51
  John Link: Some uh Democratic lawmakers are challenging the Supreme Court decision.
• 31:55
  John Link: It was fast-tracked, and the uh the argument is being held today.
• 32:00
  John Link: In theory, it could overturn that ability or at least pause that ability for LUR to be um uh available to these these party committees.
• 32:11
  John Link: I don't, I'm not a lawyer, so I have no idea, but I I I think organically and instinctively don't think it's going to change, but I do want to say that that argument is happening today, and we'll certainly pay attention to what the outcome of that is.
• 32:22
  Rick Ducey: Absolutely, yeah.
• 32:23
  Rick Ducey: And then Cinnamon, just um we we're now breaking on social video spending.
• 32:28
  Rick Ducey: And so CTV in our um taxonomy is different from social video.
• 32:33
  Rick Ducey: CTV we call you know premium program length uh kind of content, uh, and social video, uh, reels, Instagram, you know, um shorter form video.
• 32:44
  Rick Ducey: Uh and that's become very popular.
• 32:46
  Rick Ducey: So we we'll we'll have some visibility perhaps into how political spending may move into the social video, the short form video, um, as well as the premium longer form uh CT video.
• 32:56
  Rick Ducey: So a couple of things could happen, the dynamics here.
• 32:59
  Rick Ducey: Um thank you uh guys for really interesting insights into what's happening with political crowd, different viewpoints, different data, different expectations.
• 33:07
  Rick Ducey: Uh none of us are lawyers, but a lot of this is driven by what's happening with the courts.
• 33:12
  Rick Ducey: Uh so what is true today may change given appeals or even different policy decisions that come up.
• 33:18
  Rick Ducey: So it's a dynamic space that we'll definitely keep um our eyes on and uh share some views going forward.
• 33:25
  Rick Ducey: Thank you very much, everyone, um, for being here today.
• 33:27
  Rick Ducey: And so we appreciate both the audience uh being here and of course our speakers, Todd, John, and Sennon.
• 33:33
  Rick Ducey: Uh, for everyone listening.
• 33:35
  Rick Ducey: Um, if you have any questions or suggestions, please get in touch with us.
• 33:39
  Rick Ducey: Um, an easy way to do that is our email address, podcast at BIA.com.
• 33:45
  Rick Ducey: We look forward to hearing from you.
• 33:47
  Rick Ducey: If you have any suggestions for future topics, we'd definitely like to take those into consideration and see what we can do for those as well.
• 33:53
  Rick Ducey: Thanks everybody.
• 33:54
  Rick Ducey: Have a great day.