Latest / Chrisman Commentary - Daily Mortgage News / 7.15.26 Disinflation Reactions; JPMorgan Chase’s Olivia Barrow Strauss on Policy; Wholesale Prices

Transcript

7.15.26 Disinflation Reactions; JPMorgan Chase’s Olivia Barrow Strauss on Policy; Wholesale Prices · Chrisman Commentary - Daily Mortgage News

• 0:02
  Speaker: Welcome to the Chrisman Commentary, Daily Mortgage News Podcast.
• 0:05
  Speaker: I'm your host, Robbie Chrisman.
• 0:08
  Speaker: Topics on today's episode include why mortgage applications continue downward, what PPI reveals at the wholesale level after a lower-than-expected CPI report yesterday, and my interview with JP Morgan Chase's Olivia Barrow Strauss on today's housing policy landscape, examining why the U.S.
• 0:26
  Speaker: continues to underbuild homes, how smart policy can expand supply and lower costs, and what the passage of the Road to Housing Act could mean for the future of housing affordability.
• 0:36
  Speaker: Here, take a listen to a little preview.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: The Road to Housing Act.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: It does some good stuff with manufactured homes.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I heard from a lot of people in the industry it's kind of mainly a messaging bill, which is part of the reason it was passed so easily.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Because the federal government can't do much more than job-own local jurisdictions about regulatory burdens, any institutional investor ban.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Feels good, but has limited impact when it comes to home prices.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: There was a seven-year sale requirement for build to rent, which introduces a constraint on that business.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Thoughts on what's next now that that has passed?
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: No, that's kind of a loaded question.
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: We really can't overstate how significant it is that the 21st Century Road to Housing Act has passed Congress.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: The level of bipartisan and bicameral support that this legislation has generated is truly historic and very commendable to see Congress working together in this way.
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: I think we've also seen a process over really the last year in which the industry, both you know, policymakers on both sides of the aisle and both chambers of commerce have worked closely with advocates and practitioners and industry groups to shape a bill that is ultimately reflective of sort of a moment that we're at, which is needing solutions that understand a lot of the challenges that housing markets face, are ultimately local.
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: So there's a lot that the federal government can do to incentivize and encourage states and localities to expand housing supply and improve affordability.
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: And I think that's what we see this bill attempting to accomplish.
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: And really, you know, regardless of the piece of legislation that we're talking about, be it federal legislation or, you know, a lot of the state and local policies that we talk about in our building block series, it really is implementation that is the ultimately essential factor in determining whether we're going to see policies translate to impact for families and communities.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: And so I think what's next for us is very much, you know, continuing to share our insights and our expertise and try and be part of the conversation that shapes not just how policy is made, but also how policy is implemented.
• 2:58
  Speaker: Thanks to Zillow Home Loans, Zillow's in-house mortgage lender, for sponsoring this week's podcasts.
• 3:03
  Speaker: By integrating Zillow's real estate platform with financing, Zillow Home Loans helps buyers move from dreaming about a home to holding the keys.
• 3:10
  Speaker: With tools built for modern lending, Zillow Home Loans loan officers can focus on guiding buyers with care and confidence.
• 3:16
  Speaker: Zillow Home Loans is an equal housing lender.
• 3:19
  Speaker: NMLS number 10287.
• 3:21
  Speaker: I was walking by a doctor's office recently and overheard, Sir, your wife doesn't have Alzheimer's just because she can't remember what she ever saw in you.
• 3:31
  Speaker: Remembering things is important in our business, and I'm fond of saying that we have ten-year memories in an industry with 15-year cycles.
• 3:39
  Speaker: Certainly, the cost gap between renting and owning is widening, and the press is filled with stories that borrowers see, and maybe MLOs should read.
• 3:49
  Speaker: Like, is renting cheaper than buying a home, or how long it takes for buying a home to pay off in each metro?
• 3:55
  Speaker: The links to those stories are at CrispinCommentary.com.
• 3:59
  Speaker: U.S.
• 4:00
  Speaker: Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities rebounded after two days of losses in the wake of a softer than expected June CPI report, featuring unexpected headline deflation, negative 0.4% month over month, and flat core inflation.
• 4:14
  Speaker: A 5.7% month-over-month decline in energy prices drove the monthly drop in June.
• 4:20
  Speaker: Annual inflation is still above target, and renewed geopolitical tensions are threatening higher energy prices.
• 4:26
  Speaker: Accordingly, markets expect the disinflation trend to prove temporary.
• 4:30
  Speaker: And despite the lowest CPI inflation reading since 2020, there's still broader global bond market weakness and ongoing policy uncertainty to contend with.
• 4:39
  Speaker: In his first semi-annual congressional testimony, Fed Chair Warsh reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability while offering few policy surprises, signaling that future decisions will continue to be guided by inflation data and the work of the Fed's newly established policy task forces.
• 4:56
  Speaker: What looked like a 40-60 chance of a rate hike this month now faces longer odds post-CPI.
• 5:02
  Speaker: That sentiment is at odds with markets increasingly pricing in tighter monetary policy until there's meaningful progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• 5:10
  Speaker: Keep in mind that PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, averages about a quarter percentage point below CPI year over year.
• 5:18
  Speaker: As the re-escalation of the Iran conflict has pushed U.S.
• 5:22
  Speaker: energy prices higher, potentially obstructing further progress toward lower inflation, TBA spreads have widened as higher rates reduce refinancing incentives, extending mortgage durations and triggering convexity hedging, leading to broader mortgage rate reprices.
• 5:36
  Speaker: Trading has shifted from normal role activity toward outright hedging and volatility management.
• 5:42
  Speaker: Weakness of late has been driven more by extension risk than by mortgage basis fundamentals.
• 5:47
  Speaker: For today's interview, I wanted to welcome to the show JP Morgan Chase's Olivia Barrow Strauss to talk about today's housing policy landscape, examining why the U.S.
• 5:57
  Speaker: continues to underbuild homes, how smart policy can expand supply and lower costs, and what the passage of the Road to Housing Act could mean for the future of housing affordability.
• 6:07
  Speaker: She's vice president of housing policy at JP Morgan Chase, where she leads national philanthropic and policy strategies to advance the firm's housing market affordability priorities and works closely with corporate responsibility teams to drive meaningful impact for people and communities.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: We were chatting a little bit offline, and obviously you're in Washington, D.C., which is the epicenter of policy, and that makes sense because we're here to talk housing policy today.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: And you're the VP of housing for the JP Morgan Chase Policy Center.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: And but before I get into the interview in earnest, maybe you could talk about your interest in policy and how it led you to where you are today and what you find so fascinating or enjoyable about it.
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: Absolutely.
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: Well, and first, Robbie, just thank you for having me on today.
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: I'm excited to have this conversation with you.
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: And really, I mean, I think ultimately housing is such a fascinating topic and a fascinating market because it really means so many different things to different people.
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: It's obviously an asset, right?
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: It's a way to build wealth.
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: But very fundamentally, housing is also just where we live.
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: It's where we go with our families to celebrate, to grieve, to grow our families.
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: And so it's when we think about housing policy and everything that comes along with what we're trying to accomplish as a financial institution, um, as a policy shop, we have to think really holistically about how our work is reflecting these different priorities that people see and hear when they think about housing.
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: It's been such a privilege for me to lead our housing policy work at the JP Morgan Chase Policy Center because we do try and take a very holistic approach to housing and the topic of housing affordability in particular.
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: Um, obviously, as a financial institution, we bring our capital and our business expertise, but we also have philanthropic resources, we have proprietary data and research, we have our policy expertise.
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: And really, my role in sort of this policy seat is trying to think about how we bring all of that together and use policy ultimately as an enabling agent for capital to flow, and particularly for capital to flow towards improving housing that is affordable.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Obviously, it is always in the news, but even more so recently because the Road to Housing Act just passed.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: And when people hear the word housing policy, what should they think of?
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: What does it mean?
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: And ultimately, because this is a podcast for residential mortgage industry professionals, how should they think about it?
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: I think ultimately, when I think housing policy for me, it's sort of what I was saying about making sure that we have an enabling environment that allows our capital to flow.
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: At the end of the day, right, policy is really a set of rules and regulations and procedures that um dictate how and where and when and who can engage in certain activities.
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: And for housing in particular, those rules can have tremendous impacts on people's lives, right?
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: Where you can live, how much it costs to live in certain neighborhoods.
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: And so when we, you know, are thinking about policy, it is very much both sort of the technical rules and regulations.
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: It's the precise way that capital can flow.
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: But ultimately, policy, it touches people's lives.
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: And it's how people sort of experience the world and their day-to-day.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: And now that we've exchanged pleasantries here for a little bit, we can get to the hard-hitting questions.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: And I will ask, why is the country still not building homes fast enough to keep up with demand?
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Obviously, there's myriad factors when it comes to, but how can better policy help with this?
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: That is the question of the day, the week, the month, the year, uh for sure, the decade, even.
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, you're right.
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: There's a lot of elements that impact supply and demand.
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: From the seat I sit in, what I have kind of come to distill in my own mind is that there's really sort of three components that I think are necessary to make sure that we can build homes.
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: So the first is policy, of course, because that's the world I live in.
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: But it's really do the rules and the regulations and the procedures that the federal government, that state and local governments enact, do those policies allow us to build homes where there is demand for housing?
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: So that's the first component.
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: I think the second is then capital, because if you're allowed to build, do you have the financing to meet the scale and the speed of development that is needed again to meet that demand on the ground?
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: And then third is capacity, because it takes a village to build housing and produce and preserve homes.
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: And so we want to make sure that, again, if it's legal to build housing, if you have the capital to finance it, that you have the partners, the builders, the realtors, the nonprofit organizations, the advocates, everyone in the ecosystem able to engage in ways that allow us to meet the demand with new homes.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: It's not just about increasing housing supply, but it's also about bringing down costs.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: I'm wondering your thoughts on how this can be accomplished.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: Obviously, in the last presidential election, a lot of ideas were thrown out as housing affordability has become a bipartisan issue.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: There's talk of opening up federal lands, there was talk of builder tax credits.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: We haven't seen much of that come to pass.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: In your opinion, though, how can we accomplish bringing down costs?
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: I think you're exactly right because there's supply, there's demand, and then there's supply that is affordable to meet the demand that's out there.
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: And I think increasingly what we're seeing is that it's really that question of affordability that is constraining the market and making it harder for both renters and prospective home buyers to find the home or the rental unit that is available at a price point that they can afford.
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: And so we're looking at a couple of different ways that we can pull policy levers to reduce the cost drivers of production.
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: Just last year, the JP Morgan Chase Policy Center launched a series of papers called the Building Block Series.
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: And what we're really trying to do is look at exactly those levers that can ideally reduce the cost drivers of housing production.
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: So last year, the first paper in that series we launched with a focus on the regulatory barriers that too often slow down the production of new housing and add various costs through owners' processes and timelines.
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: The second paper in the building blocks series, we actually just launched in June of this year.
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: And that paper is looking much more intentionally at the actual construction process and how we can bring along innovations in home building to further reduce costs in that actual development process.
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: So, again, the theory with this building blocks series is that we can think really creatively about policy levers to bring down the costs in the home building process so that those cost reductions can ultimately translate to greater affordability for renters and prospective home buyers.
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: We do anticipate publishing additional papers in the building block series.
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: So now that we've studied sort of the regulatory barriers and innovative construction models, the hope is that in the future we will also be able to examine sort of the financing sources and particularly ways that different public and private partnerships can kind of come together and support an effective capital stack that again drives towards that affordability goal that we have.
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: And we also want to look at capacity and think about what is needed on the ground in the ecosystem of stakeholders to enable production and preservation at scale.
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: And again, all of this really is under the banner of reducing the costs that it takes to build housing so that more people have access to a home, a rental unit that is affordable to them.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: And there are good examples from around the nation.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: As you know, I'm here in California, and California changed some of their accessory dwelling unit laws to basically eliminate minimum lot sizes and fee requirements and help speed some of that along.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: There's some great examples of zoning in Texas, but from your perspective, and obviously other states as well are doing this.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: And it's not just blue states or red states, it's all states that can get behind this.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: From your perspective, good examples that we're seeing around the nation.
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: There are honestly too many to list, which is an incredibly exciting uh moment to be in.
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: We have been really pleased through the building block series to be able to lift up several of these state and local examples that we really see as best practices across the country.
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: And obviously, from my vantage point in DC, I spend a lot of time thinking about federal policy, but increasingly having this ability to see the sort of innovative and really momentum-building opportunities that governors and mayors and other stakeholders on the ground are thinking about.
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: It's it's it's really inspiring work.
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: Um, you mentioned Texas.
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: I think that is one very common example that we see cited as a sort of an example of a market that has very strong supply-oriented policies.
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: They have enabled housing production through various uh zoning, streamlining changes, um, and permitting process improvements.
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: And I actually just saw recent research, I believe it was by Pew, showing that these regulatory improvements that Texas has made has actually translated to meaningful improvements in housing affordability in Austin compared to other markets.
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: So I think it's a great example to show that there are solutions and that states and localities in particular are innovating around some of these solutions and showing meaningful progress.
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: Another example on the innovative construction side that we see cited a lot is Colorado.
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: They are taking a very comprehensive approach to build an ecosystem that is supportive for housing, manufacturing, and sort of manufacturing capacity.
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: So some of the things that Colorado has looked at include incorporating different types of financing, so grants and low-cost loans alongside production capacity.
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: So thinking about building up the capacity of actual factories that are building off-site construction homes.
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: And they're taking this approach that kind of pairs financing, pairs facility capacity, so that they're looking at the broader aggregate pipeline for off-site construction as opposed to just a project-by-project kind of example.
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: But I think in a lot of these examples we see across different states, one thing is always true, which is that there is no silver bullet to the housing crisis, particularly the housing affordability crisis.
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: And so often when we see examples that are successful, it's really not the result of one single policy or single program.
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: It's it's really thinking about those examples where it's clear that the housing system is a deeply interconnected set of systems and stakeholders and actors.
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: And so, you know, the successful examples that we see are when policy is able to think really holistically about the um the kind of different implications that a market is going to face.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: Olivia, a ton of valuable insights.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: I really appreciate the time and uh the very, very appreciative that I was able to talk to you.
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: Hopefully we'll we'll have you back on the podcast soon.
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: Thank you.
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: Well, thank you so much, Robbie.
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: So grateful for all the work that you're leading.
• 18:22
  Speaker: Today's economic calendar kicked off with mortgage applications from MBA falling 2.7% last week, as the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage climbed to 6.65%, its highest level since August 2025, weighing on overall borrowing activity.
• 18:36
  Speaker: While refinance applications rose 4% from the prior week and remained above year-ago levels, purchase applications declined 7% on a seasonally adjusted basis, reflecting continued affordability pressures.
• 18:49
  Speaker: After yesterday's CPI report, PPI came in down 0.3% month over month in June, which was lower than expected, in at 5.5% year over year, also beating expectations.
• 19:01
  Speaker: Core PPI was in at 0.2% month over month and 4.7% year over year, also beating expectations on all fronts.
• 19:10
  Speaker: Other items of note today include July Empire State Manufacturing, July Fed Page Book, and remarks from Fed Governor Cook and New York Fed President Williams.
• 19:19
  Speaker: After the inflation data, agency MBS prices are worse by about an eighth versus Tuesday's close, the two years yielding 4.21, and the ten years yielding 4.61 after closing yesterday at 4.59% on continued warring in the Middle East.
• 19:32
  Speaker: Let's wrap up with a joke and some housekeeping.
• 19:37
  Speaker: Prison is just one word to you, but for some people, it's a whole sentence.
• 19:43
  Speaker: Thanks again to Zillow Home Loans, Zillow's in-house mortgage lender, for sponsoring this week's podcasts.
• 19:52
  Speaker: By integrating Zillow's real estate platform with financing, Zillow Home Loans helps buyers move from dreaming about a home to holding the keys.
• 19:59
  Speaker: With tools built for modern lending, Zillow Home Loans loan officers can focus on guiding buyers with care and confidence.
• 20:05
  Speaker: To learn more, visit Zillow.com/slash home loans.