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Who’s going to win it? My Full Rugby World Cup prediction break down · The Rugby Muscle Podcast

• 0:00
  All right.
• 0:00
  So we're just over six weeks away from the Rugby World Cup.
• 0:04
  I'm getting excited and it's time that I put my money where my mouth is and made some predictions.
• 0:09
  What is going to happen in this World Cup?
• 0:11
  Wait and see.
• 0:22
  What's going on everybody?
• 0:23
  Welcome back to the Rugby Muscle Podcast and YouTube channel however you're watching or listening.
• 0:28
  It is great to have you here.
• 0:30
  Today we're doing something a little bit different, just a little bit fun.
• 0:33
  We're going to do some predictions for the upcoming World Cup.
• 0:37
  Now, obviously I'm gonna give some caveats that I am not, I don't do any sports betting, like, basically ever.
• 0:43
  I don't think, I think, like, the whole point of sport is that we don't really know what's going on in the inside, and even if you do, it's still unpredictable.
• 0:52
  That's why it's such, so great to watch.
• 0:53
  So I think predictions to a certain aspect, outside of being fun, are kind of, like, Difficult to do because and some kind of pointless.
• 1:02
  but they are fun.
• 1:03
  It is fun to sort of play out and see what we think is going to happen.
• 1:07
  And, you know, little over a month away, I thought would be a good time to see what's going to happen and then react to my predictions.
• 1:15
  Now, obviously, I think I've got some like unique and real like different smarts that are going to help me with these predictions.
• 1:24
  But like I say, they could be all wrong.
• 1:26
  Who knows.
• 1:27
  It's just difficult to predict these things.
• 1:29
  Like, no one would have predicted last World Cup, Uruguay beating Fiji, but that still happened.
• 1:34
  Unless you were on the inside of the Uruguay camp, then maybe you saw that coming.
• 1:38
  Like no one else saw that coming.
• 1:40
  They're going to be some upsets for sure.
• 1:42
  Maybe I didn't see them coming, but for the most part, I think I've done a really good job of distilling my reasoning behind the results that I've predicted and the outcomes that I have predicted.
• 1:53
  So first and foremost, Let's look into pool a we've got and these first two pools are fairly simple to work through Because they're so they're so top heavy with the four most dominant teams in world rugby right now And unfortunately the winners and the runners up Of these two first two groups play each other which means that only two of these teams in these first two groups Are going to make it to the semi final which makes it even more And that's not unpredictable but more important as or more like of a these pools and these Winners of these two quarterfinals are going to be the two favorites to win the whole thing.
• 2:32
  So The four most outstanding favorites are in these first two pools Obviously, I'm talking about New Zealand and France.
• 2:40
  We've also got in pool a we've got Italy Uruguay and Namibia and I just think This is fairly Self explanatory is how this is gonna work out apart from maybe you've got a shootout between New Zealand and France as to who's gonna win France are hosting it.
• 2:57
  So I'm gonna back them to win the group.
• 2:59
  I'm gonna back them to win their opening game.
• 3:02
  I Think their opening game is against New Zealand.
• 3:03
  Is that right?
• 3:04
  Is that is the first game of the Rugby World Cup?
• 3:08
  France against New Zealand.
• 3:09
  Let me just check Yes, it is.
• 3:11
  I knew that was right.
• 3:12
  I knew I knew that's what What's going to happen?
• 3:14
  So I can't see if it's the opening fixture.
• 3:17
  It's in France.
• 3:18
  They've got such a great team.
• 3:20
  They're going to be buzzing for us for this, and they're not going to let their nation down, particularly with Jesus Christ, the turmoil that is going on in there.
• 3:29
  Right now, they're going to feel an extra sense of responsibility.
• 3:32
  And from what I've seen from this French team, they are not the sort to crumble under pressure.
• 3:37
  They are going to thrive under that pressure, and they're going to dispatch.
• 3:41
  Of the all blacks in that first fixture And then go through some new routine wins over italy uruguay namibia New zealand after that loss in that first game are probably going to do the same They might have a little bit of a struggle in the first 20 to 30 Maybe even up to 60 minutes against italy who I can see really being up for it But they're going to pull away because of their class Italy I see Easily be in Uruguay and Namibia and Uruguay.
• 4:09
  I see be in Namibia Just because of how impressive they were against the states And against Fiji last go around So I just think they could they've got four more years of building on that and I think they're going to keep pushing through so That's my prediction for pool a france to win it new zealand to come runners up and those two teams quarterfinals Next we've got pool b Again Two of the other four, top favourite teams to win this World Cup, South Africa and Ireland.
• 4:41
  They're also joined by Scotland and Tonga, who are both gonna be really strong.
• 4:46
  Tonga, of course, having the likes of Charles Piatel, and Israel Folau in their ranks, and a lot of others that have come across, and recommitted their allegiances to Tonga, which I think is good for them.
• 4:59
  It's gonna be good for the game.
• 5:01
  Not so good for the likes of Scotland, potentially South Africa, potentially Ireland who are going to be battling them out for those top two spots.
• 5:10
  I see this being a little bit closer than Pool A as far as Scotland potentially challenging Ireland, potentially challenging South Africa.
• 5:17
  But, of course, it is going to be those two teams that are the favourites and have matched my predictions to be the top two teams in Pool B.
• 5:29
  Island I think are just going to have a little bit too much for South Africa in the pool stages.
• 5:33
  I think they're going to win the group.
• 5:34
  I think South Africa...
• 5:35
  Have the luxury of such a ridiculously deep squad that they can rotate through and they're not really that bothered about coming in second in the group because They still need to iron out who their best team is and it sometimes traditionally takes South Africa a while to figure it out Remember in 2019 They they got beaten quite handily by the All Blacks in the group stages before coming back and winning the whole thing So I don't think they're gonna be as like Obsessed with beating the Irish as I think Ireland, they need to get their squad together.
• 6:04
  They need to keep that momentum that they've got to carry them through, hopefully past the quarterfinals, which they've never done before.
• 6:12
  Scotland, I do see them having a great squad.
• 6:15
  I do see them having a good team, but I just don't think it's going to be enough against the likes of Ireland and South Africa.
• 6:19
  I think they're gonna, they might even potentially come unstuck against Tonga, which could be very deflating for the squad.
• 6:27
  I could potentially even see a situation where they challenge South Africa, maybe even beat them or take a draw against them.
• 6:32
  But because of a shortcoming against Tonga, they still end up taking third.
• 6:37
  Now that, that could be a really bold prediction if this comes true.
• 6:40
  I'm going to cut this part of the podcast and replay it because that's, that's quite bold.
• 6:45
  But, probably not going to happen.
• 6:47
  It's probably just going to be quite routine where, South Africa get their three wins over Scotland, Tonga and Romania.
• 6:53
  And Scotland just beat Tonga and Romania.
• 6:55
  I just don't see Romania putting up much of a fight against Tonga who are going to be really strong.
• 7:00
  I see Scotland beat Tonga being a really good game.
• 7:03
  But Ireland, just with all of their class, are going to top that group and go through.
• 7:08
  And so then we've got those quarterfinals of Ireland, South Africa, New Zealand and France.
• 7:13
  And only two of those teams are going to go through to the semis.
• 7:16
  This is, it's quite, it's quite, it makes for a more interesting World Cup because otherwise we would have easily predicted those other four teams to go through and be the four semifinalists.
• 7:26
  So it does make for an interesting World Cup.
• 7:28
  Let's go on to Pool C.
• 7:30
  Where we have Wales, Australia, Fiji, Georgia and Portugal.
• 7:37
  This is a little bit less predictable than the others because yes you've got the top heavy potentially Wales and Australia.
• 7:45
  But Wales last year only lost to Georgia at home.
• 7:50
  Fiji have been again recruiting as well and they've been looking better and better each World Cup.
• 7:56
  And Wales have looked worse the last few years, Australia, maybe under Eddie Jones, they're going to have something special for the World Cup.
• 8:03
  I do think that and that is why I've predicted them to come top of this pool and Wales.
• 8:09
  I've just not seen anything from them that.
• 8:12
  makes me believe that they can beat, Fiji.
• 8:14
  I think Fiji have something special.
• 8:17
  I think with the time that they're gonna have together with their, like, they've got a really good, strong squad.
• 8:23
  I think they can put something together to, to beat Wales and I, I just see that happening.
• 8:27
  Wales, there's just too much turmoil.
• 8:29
  They've been relying on older players for too long and most of which are actually already retired, so...
• 8:35
  I just see, I just don't see them being able to beat Fiji.
• 8:38
  I, I, I mean, that's not wrong.
• 8:40
  I do see them being able to beat Fiji, but this prediction, I, I see Fiji beating them.
• 8:46
  Like, that's one of those where it could go either way.
• 8:49
  I could even see, again, Fiji beating Wales, but Wales, holding strong against Australia.
• 8:53
  I even see Georgia potentially beating Wales, but this...
• 8:57
  Is gonna be my prediction.
• 8:59
  So, Australia top of the group.
• 9:00
  Fiji comes second.
• 9:01
  I can even see Fiji beating Australia to be fair.
• 9:03
  So, this one's wide open, man.
• 9:05
  Like, Georgia can beat any of these teams.
• 9:07
  I mean, Portugal are probably the only team that don't have it.
• 9:11
  But they've ran Georgia real close.
• 9:13
  They drew with Georgia last year, I believe, at home.
• 9:16
  So, you think about that.
• 9:19
  You think about any of these teams beating anyone on their day.
• 9:23
  Potentially needing the other team to have a bit of an off day.
• 9:27
  This makes for a very unpredictable pool.
• 9:30
  And even though it's unpredictable, I've gone and predicted it.
• 9:32
  Here it is.
• 9:33
  Australia top it out with Fiji coming in second place.
• 9:36
  Then we've got Wales not making the quarterfinals.
• 9:39
  Georgia, again settling for their fourth place, which is, is unfortunately kind of par for the course from this point.
• 9:45
  Maybe there could be a situation where Wales come fourth and Georgia come third.
• 9:50
  That'd be interesting.
• 9:52
  And Portugal finishing bottom.
• 9:55
  After all that being said, I could also still see a situation where Wales win this group.
• 10:00
  And, and they just, you know, they get their two to five point wins in every single game.
• 10:05
  And they just, they, they just do it and they get the job done and they get out of the group.
• 10:10
  But, in saying that, I say that I could see it.
• 10:12
  It's not what I'm predicting right now.
• 10:14
  I think they're going to come third.
• 10:15
  And then finally we have England, Japan, Argentina, Samoa and Chile.
• 10:20
  This is, this group is like kind of exactly what England need.
• 10:24
  Just enough of a test to keep their guys firing but not so much that they can build up some momentum and almost certainly make the quarterfinals.
• 10:34
  These are some, these are good fixtures for them.
• 10:37
  I know they lost to Argentina in the autumn.
• 10:41
  But that was a big upset, and they really underfired in that one.
• 10:44
  And even when they were underfiring, they still beat Japan.
• 10:47
  Japan just don't seem like they have the momentum that they did in the last World Cup, and that's kind of understandable.
• 10:53
  They're not hosting it.
• 10:54
  They are growing, but I just don't see them being able to beat Argentina or England, and that is why I've predicted them to come third, with England beating Argentina and winning out in this group.
• 11:06
  I even potentially see Chile being able to take out Samoa, but...
• 11:10
  I think I'll give one sort of some minds for this one.
• 11:13
  I think they'll come fourth position with Japan being third and that is more self explanatory than the other groups.
• 11:21
  Again, potentially could see Argentina be in England.
• 11:24
  I don't see Japan beating England.
• 11:26
  This is another one of those where I could clip that part of the podcast and just see how wrong I was rather than how right I was before.
• 11:33
  But I think England win this group and then that sets up the following quarterfinals.
• 11:38
  We have Australia against Argentina as the first quarterfinal.
• 11:43
  Ireland against New Zealand second, England against Fiji, and then France against South Africa.
• 11:48
  And you can see how those two match 42 and 44, very, very top heavy.
• 11:54
  And you, you, you can see the winners of the World Cup coming out of those.
• 11:57
  A side tangent here, I would like to see like the third and the fourth place teams have their own little repercharge kind of thing, or whatever you would call it, like they do with the sevens.
• 12:07
  Wouldn't that be fun?
• 12:08
  I'm seeing Japan, Samoa.
• 12:10
  who else have we got?
• 12:10
  Wales, Georgia, Scotland and Tonga, all playing each other with some games, like, with some TV time, generating more money for World Rugby and giving these lower ranked teams some more game time against other lower ranked teams from around the world.
• 12:25
  I think that'd be more fun, and everyone finishes out in the ladder, but we don't have that.
• 12:30
  We have these quarterfinals, and this is all we've got.
• 12:32
  But good for Fiji, in my predictions, for making it this far.
• 12:37
  Um...
• 12:38
  Now these first two quarterfinals, I see Australia taking out Argentina.
• 12:42
  I know, just recently, they, they lost to them, but I think Eddie Jones is gonna have some, like, I don't know if it's gonna be a boring game plan, but it is gonna be a significant I think he's been eyeing this game for a while.
• 12:55
  He knows that this is more likely where it's gonna be, and he's gonna have a game plan to beat Argentina.
• 13:01
  Argentina.
• 13:02
  Have a solid squad But they don't have the luxury of multiple different ways of playing They just play good basic rugby and that's what gets them over I think australia can do some unique tactical game planning to get around that And that's what's going to get them into the semi finals where they will face Yes, sorry, the irish you're According to my predictions, you're still going to be that team that can never get past the quarterfinal.
• 13:29
  And it's not because this team isn't good enough.
• 13:30
  This team is great.
• 13:31
  This Ireland team is absolutely phenomenal.
• 13:34
  They've just got the unfortunate, situation where they've had to play the All Blacks in the quarterfinal.
• 13:40
  Even though this All Blacks team is under a lot of pressure and a lot of fire for not being as successful as they have been for the last 10 or so years.
• 13:47
  This is still a very, very, very good all black team, and they've got a point to prove, and they have to prove it against Ireland here, and I just think they're gonna do it.
• 13:55
  I think they're gonna make the semi final by beating Ireland in the quarter final and condemning Ireland to the same fate that they have done, or that they have seen in every single other previous World Cup where they have not made it past the quarter final, and all of this great work, unfortunately, as far as the World Cup goes, is for naught.
• 14:13
  Now, this isn't to say...
• 14:15
  Like, I think it's actually a waste.
• 14:17
  I think they've done so well that this continued momentum, you can see it in the academies, you can see it in their under twenties team.
• 14:24
  This is laying the foundation for Ireland to be a big world power as far as rugby goes.
• 14:30
  And even though they don't make it past the quarterfinal, I just see their success continuing throughout for the next four years and beyond.
• 14:38
  And you know, even though they don't make it past the court fund as World Cup, it's not all doom and gloom.
• 14:43
  And then we've got the other set of quarterfinals where we have England taking out Fiji.
• 14:48
  Not really a bold prediction here, I just think England are going to have too much.
• 14:51
  It's going to be a struggle and it's going to be quite brutal and I think this might cost England a couple players as far as injuries or cards might go.
• 14:59
  But I see them getting it done and getting through Fiji.
• 15:03
  Likewise, a more physical game where I see France taking out South Africa again with the French crowd behind them.
• 15:11
  With them rising to the occasion.
• 15:13
  This is going to be a tough game But I see them taking out the south africans and the south africans after all of their good work going I mean, until they just played the All Blacks, all their good work, I just don't think they're going to have enough.
• 15:27
  I think they're going to, there's a few guys that are a little bit too old that are probably on the way out, should have been on the way out a few years ago.
• 15:33
  And they don't have enough trust in the younger guys, and I think that's going to cost them, and I think France are just going to have too much.
• 15:39
  And I can actually see them, like the French here, really blowing away the South Africans and putting on a performance that, like, they can really be proud of and putting some points on.
• 15:49
  Which leaves us with the semi finals.
• 15:52
  Australia and England, despite having, you know, a crap year or so leading up to this World Cup, are both making the semi finals.
• 15:59
  Do they make it beyond?
• 16:01
  Well, you're going to have to wait about a minute or so before I give my prediction.
• 16:03
  But I think this is interesting because then you've got the two, you know, you've got one big dog in the Northern Hemisphere versus one littler team, and one big dog in the Southern Hemisphere versus a team that isn't quite performing as well.
• 16:16
  So...
• 16:18
  I see, I see this being interesting, but I don't see these being very, very close games at all.
• 16:25
  Once again, I see, as we played this through, I see New Zealand just having way too much for Australia.
• 16:33
  You've, you've seen it, or you're going to see it in the upcoming Bledisloe fixtures.
• 16:37
  Yes, Australia can do some tactics, they might hold them out for a bit, but...
• 16:41
  As happens so often with New Zealand in the last 30 to 40 minutes and maybe even the last like 10 minutes or so they start to blow them away because of their class.
• 16:53
  I just don't see Australia being able to come up against New Zealand with something special and good enough to beat them.
• 17:02
  I say that.
• 17:03
  No, that's not true.
• 17:04
  I could see it.
• 17:05
  An Eddie Jones team.
• 17:07
  Could pull something out of the bag and make the World Cup final after all of that and and all of a sudden Eddie Jones is the hero and he doesn't even have to win that final.
• 17:16
  But making that final with this Australia team is a hell of a result for Eddie Jones.
• 17:21
  And that would be his fourth World Cup final as a member of the coaching staff, which is pretty phenomenal.
• 17:27
  And that's going to just keep him going and going and going.
• 17:29
  And that's just, you know, after being who did they be in the In, in this quarterfinal against Argentina, they didn't really have a tough game and until they face New Zealand, so maybe they can, they can almost look beyond and prepare for this New Zealand game because once they do, that's going to, you know, that's going to give them a little bit of an advantage over New Zealand who have had to battle through against Ireland and France before even getting here, so Interesting stuff.
• 17:58
  This is why I said at the beginning that the way these groups have laid out, yes, I can understand people moaning about it and it not being fair, but it does make for an interesting World Cup.
• 18:06
  You can't argue that.
• 18:07
  And speaking of which, we move on and France, like, I don't see England standing up against them.
• 18:13
  Like, the Englishman in me thinks, yeah, they can do it and they can really pull it off.
• 18:17
  And they've done it before.
• 18:20
  I believe they did it in, in 2007, but I just, this French team is different.
• 18:24
  This isn't the French team of 2007.
• 18:27
  This isn't the French team of 2007, even when they went all the way to the final.
• 18:30
  This is a special French team and England ain't gonna stop them.
• 18:35
  I just, I just don't see it.
• 18:36
  I think this is gonna be pretty ominous.
• 18:37
  It's gonna be ominous at this point after my prediction of the fact that they're gonna put some points on South Africa and made it into the semifinals with so much momentum behind them.
• 18:49
  I just don't see England stopping that.
• 18:51
  The only team I can see potentially stopping it is New Zealand in this final.
• 18:56
  It's one of those poetic things that happens with sport where the first game of the World Cup is also going to be the last game of the World Cup.
• 19:04
  Side note here, it says match 48, so that means if this was match 46 there is going to be a third and fourth, which then puts Eddie Jones against England, which will be interesting.
• 19:13
  Doesn't really matter who wins that.
• 19:15
  What matters is who wins this final.
• 19:16
  Like I say, a repeat of the very first game of the World Cup is going to be the very last game of the World Cup.
• 19:22
  New Zealand against France, New Zealand, the most successful team in World Cup history, along with South Africa, the most successful team in the history of rugby.
• 19:32
  France, never having won a World Cup, but now seem to be doing things really well with their rugby.
• 19:38
  I touched on Ireland having a potential legacy going forward with their under 20s.
• 19:43
  If you've seen any of the under 20s, if you've seen the top 14, France are doing things very, very right when it comes to rugby and that is why I see them winning this final, winning the World Cup on home soil and just that cherry on top of the cake of what they've been building as far as their top 14 goes, as far as their under 20s goes, as far as their whole rugby structure goes, hosting the World Cup and winning it, I see rugby being huge in France going forward as a result of this, but also What the way they've structured it has led to this result as well.
• 20:20
  And I see them winning the world cup.
• 20:23
  That's it for my predictions.
• 20:25
  I don't need to embellish on that.
• 20:26
  I'd like to hear your predictions or just pick a result that you think I'm, I'm.
• 20:32
  Incredibly wrong about or that I haven't seen coming and put it in the comments below.
• 20:37
  If you agree with me totally, or if you disagree with any of my takes, let me know in the comments below if you made it all the way to the end.
• 20:42
  If you enjoy this stuff like comments on, high level rugby rather than just your training, a little bit fun, a little bit different.
• 20:48
  Let me know also in the comments below and let me know by hitting the thumbs up button, subscribe for more and I'll do more of these sort of prediction and review videos.
• 20:58
  Around the World Cup, if that's something that you would be interested in.
• 21:02
  Always open to helping you guys out and giving you guys what you need, because this channel exists for you.
• 21:10
  If you want any training, anything like that, rugby muscle.
• 21:13
  com, I'll put the links in the description below.
• 21:16
  Five star reviews on the podcast.
• 21:17
  Also.
• 21:18
  I didn't mention that but that's also very very important If you're listening on spotify, give us a five star review.
• 21:24
  That'd be great Thank you guys so much for watching and listening to this these I was gonna say outlandish predictions, but there's nothing overly outlandish about france winning the world cup They're probably the favorites going into it.
• 21:35
  So Thanks so much for watching and listening and i'll see you in the next one