Latest / VREF | The Truth About the Aviation Market / Too Many People, Not Enough Closers: Why Aircraft Deals Are Getting Slower and Messier | EP 33
Transcript
- Jason Zilberbrand: Welcome back to the Truth About The Market. I'm glad you're here. This is the show where we cut through the noise, focus on what's actually happening in aviation, not the hype, not the headlines. I'm your host, Jason Silverbrand. I'm the president of VREF. I've appraised nearly every type of out there for clients ranging from the FAA all the way to private owners. And I've owned, operated, bought and sold my own airplanes. So when I talk about this stuff, it's not theory, it's experience. And here's something worth saying upfront. Welcome back to the truth about the market. I'm glad you're here. This is the show where we cut through the noise and focus on what's actually happening in aviation, not the hype and not the headlines. I'm your host, Jason Zilberbrand, and I'm the president of VREF. I've appraised nearly every type of aircraft out there for clients ranging from the FAA all the way to private owners. And I've owned, operated, bought and sold my own airplanes. So when I talk about this stuff, it's not theory, it's experience. And here's something worth saying upfront. This podcast is sponsor free. That means there's no advertisers. There's no companies to appease. And that means there's no incentive to soften the truth. What you hear today is unfiltered because aviation demands truth and the market punishes misinformation every time. And today we're talking about the question that nobody in aviation ever wants to stay outlandered. But everybody feels once they're in the middle of a transaction. This podcast is sponsor free. That means there's no advertisers. There's no companies to appease. And that means there's no incentive to soften the truth. What you hear today is unfiltered because aviation demands truth and the market punishes misinformation every time. And today we're talking about a question that nobody in aviation ever wants to say out loud, but everybody feels once they're in the middle of a transaction, And that is how many people does it actually take to sell an aircraft? Because what used to be a relatively straightforward process between a buyer, seller, maybe a broker or two, has quietly evolved into something very different. Today, a single deal can involve multiple brokers, internal deal teams, outside aviation counsel, transaction coordinators, pre-buy facilities, lenders, insurance underwriters, tax advisors, and yes, And that is, how many people does it actually take to sell an aircraft? Because what used to be a relatively straightforward process between a buyer, a seller, maybe a broker or two, has quietly evolved into something very different. Today, a single deal can involve multiple brokers, internal deal teams, outside aviation counsel, transaction coordinators, pre-buy facilities, lenders, insurance underwriters, tax advisors, and yes, Despite all that, deals aren't getting easier. They're getting slower. They're getting more expensive and in many cases, less likely to close. And somewhere along the way, the industry decided that more structure equals better outcomes. Brokerage started acting more like car deals and a lot less like aircraft brokers. In fact, I recently browsed a couple of the larger sized websites and I was shocked by how many people are on the payroll. I think this deserves to be challenged. Despite all that deals aren't getting easier. They're getting slower. They're getting more expensive and in many cases less likely to close. And somewhere along the way, the industry decided that more structure equals better outcomes. Brokerage started acting more like car dealers and a lot less like aircraft brokers. In fact, I recently browsed a couple of the larger firms websites and I was shocked by how many people are on the payroll. I think this deserves to be challenged. Because complexity doesn't always reduce risk. Sometimes it just spreads responsibilities and nobody wins and nobody's actually in control. And when nobody is in control, decisions tend to stall and then the process drags on and then the deals die quietly. And I want to make a point here that says, you know, that I'm saying that there's nothing wrong with these aircraft, you know, not because the price either was wrong. And because the process became a manageable Because complexity doesn't always reduce risk. Sometimes it just spreads responsibility. So nobody wins and nobody's actually in control. And when nobody is in control, decisions tend to stall. And then the process drags on and then the deals die quietly. And I want to make a point here that says, you know, that I'm saying that there's nothing wrong with these aircraft, you know, not because the price either was wrong. And because the process became a manageable. That's where things start to fall apart. So in today's episode, we're going to break down what a modern aircraft transaction actually looks like behind the scenes. I'm going to tell you how many people are actually involved, why brokerage firms have built these layered structures, and where the process starts to break. And more importantly, we're going to ask, or I'm going to answer the question that nobody wants to ask. Is all of this making deals better or just making them harder to get done? That's where things start to fall apart. So in today's episode, we're gonna break down what a modern aircraft transaction actually looks like behind the scenes. I'm gonna tell you how many people are actually involved, why brokerage firms have built these layered structures, and where the process starts to break. And more importantly, we're gonna ask, or I'm gonna answer the question that nobody wants to ask. Is all of this making deals better or just making them harder to get done? So what I want to talk about is the simple model that used to be because there was a time not long ago when aircraft transactions were actually pretty simple. You had a buyer, you had a seller, and you had a broker. Sometimes one represented each side, but that was it. That was the entire structure. The broker handled pricing guidance. The broker handled marketing. The broker handed the negotiations, coordinating legal, coordinating the pre-purchase agreement, coordinating the pre-buy. So what I want to talk about is the simple model it used to be because there was a time not long ago when aircraft transactions were actually pretty simple. You had a buyer, you had a seller, and you had a broker, sometimes one representing each side, but that was it. That was the entire structure. The broker handled pricing guidance, the broker handled marketing, the broker handed the negotiations, coordinating legal, coordinating the pre-purchase agreement, coordinating the pre-buy. And often there was a sole proprietor attorney who specialized in aircraft transactions. And then there'd also be some maintenance that got involved during the pre-buy inspection. But in all honesty, that was it, except for the fact that that's growing. I don't think that really has changed at all. But honestly, it was very linear. Information flowed in one direction, decisions flowed in one direction, decisions were made quickly, and accountability was clear. If something went wrong, you knew exactly And often there was a sole proprietor attorney who specialized in aircraft transactions. And then there'd also be some maintenance that got involved during the pre-buy inspection. But in all honesty, that was it. Except for the fact that escrow handled the money. And I don't think that really has changed at all, but honestly, it was very linear information flowed in one direction. Decisions flowed in one direction. Decisions were made quickly and accountability was clear. If something went wrong, you knew exactly. where the issue was. More importantly, you needed who you had to call to get it fixed. Now, if you compare that to what we see today, instead of this linear straight line of a deal, you have this copy. Because a single transaction can involve, as I said, a lead broker. And then that lead broker is going to have supporting brokers, and they're all going to be inside the same firm. And by the way, I see these fantastic titles like sales executive and sales associate and sales engineer, client experience. where the issue was. More importantly, you needed who you had to call to get it fixed. Now, if you compare that to what we see today, instead of this linear straight line of a deal, you have this cobweb because a single transaction can involve, as I said, a lead broker. And then that lead broker is going to have supporting brokers and they're all going to be inside the same firm. And by the way, I see these fantastic titles like sales executive and sales associate and sales engineer and client experience specialist. I don't know what all those titles mean, but I do know if you sell, you sell. And that's it, right? You should get a dedicated transaction manager. I know that's what all the big houses do. You get internal legal counsel. They review everything. You get external aviation attorneys where they're going to redline everything that the internal counsel went ahead and redlined already. And then you got maintenance consultants and they're reviewing inspection of the pre-buy. I don't know what all those titles mean, but I do know if you sell, you sell. And that's it, right? You should get a dedicated transaction manager. I know that's what all the big houses do. You get internal legal counsel. They review everything. You get external aviation attorneys who are then going to redline everything that the internal counsel went ahead and redlined already. And then you got maintenance consultants and they're reviewing the inspection of the pre-buy. And oftentimes they're going on site and they're overseeing everything as it gets done. And then when the bill comes or when the final discrepancies come, they'll argue about whether or not those items should be addressed. And then you have lenders who are imposing conditions to the pre-buy. They're imposing conditions to the deal. And then you have insurance underwriters who are inserting their requirements. And then on top of all of that, you got these tax advisors and you've seen them, they're all over the place. They're structuring the ownership and then Oftentimes they're going on site and they're overseeing everything as it gets done. And then when the bill comes or when the final discrepancies come, they'll argue about whether or not those items should be addressed. And then you have lenders who are imposing conditions to the pre-buy. They're imposing conditions to the deal. And then you have insurance underwriters who are inserting their requirements. And then on top of all that, you got these tax advisors and you've seen them, they're all over the place. They're structuring the ownership and then I need to tell you, each one of these people, each one is a participant, each one has a voice, and that's really the big difference, people. Not that there's more, but that there's more voices, and each voice is going to bring a different objective. They have different risk consequences, a different timeline, maybe different experience levels. The broker wants to close a deal like yesterday. Legal wants to eliminate exposure, and they do this often by leaving a fund. I need to tell you, each one of these people, each one is a participant, each one has a voice. And that's really the big difference people, not that there's more, but that there's more voices and each voice is going to bring a different objective. have different risk tolerances, a different timeline, maybe different experience levels. The broker wants to close the deal like yesterday. Legal wants to eliminate exposure and they do this often by leaving a thumbprint. And that means they're going to make comments on every single document that they're provided. And then the lender, they want security. They just want to know what the collateral is worth and what the buyer is actually paying for. And the mechanic wants everything documented. So if they're ever asked by the buyer, they have answered, but maybe not so much if asked by the seller. And then there's the tax advisor who wants complete validation as to what's going on in the deal. So, you know, none of this is wrong, but And that means that they're going to make comments on every single document that they're provided. And then the lender, they want security. They just want to know what the collateral is worth and what the buyer is actually paying for. And the mechanic wants everything documented. So if they're ever asked by the buyer, they have answers, but maybe not so much if asked by the seller. And then there's the tax advisor who wants complete validation as to what's going on with the deal. So, you know, none of this is wrong, but The problem is that none these people are aligned. And when the alignment breaks down, the process slows down. What used to be a coordinated transaction becomes a negotiation between the people inside the deal. And that's where friction starts. And friction in this market kills deals. So to understand how we got here, you have to be fair. This didn't happen by accident, folks. 30 years ago, this business looked completely different. Buyers didn't know firms. They knew people. problem is that none of these people are aligned. And when the alignment breaks down, the process slows down. What used to be a coordinated transaction becomes a negotiation between the people inside the deal. And that's where friction starts. And friction in this market kills deals. So to understand how we got here, you have to be fair. This didn't happen by accident, folks. 30 years ago, this business looked completely different. Buyers didn't know firms. They knew people. They knew the deal could get done by one person, the best in the business. And there were guys that were really well known guys like Jack Perot who unfortunately aren't with us anymore. But they weren't brands. They were horse traders. They were seasoned aircraft resellers and they did it the hard way. They would take an airplane, fly it to an airport, put up a for sale sign and they'd continue that process until it got sold. If you were buying or selling an aircraft, you didn't ask the company they were. They knew the deal could get done by one person, the best in the business. And there were guys that were really well known guys like Jack Pruitt who unfortunately aren't with us anymore, but they weren't brands. They were horse traders. They were seasoned aircraft resellers and they did it the hard way. They would take an airplane, fly it to an airport, put up a for sale sign and they'd continue that process until it got sold. If you were buying or selling an aircraft, you didn't ask what company they worked for. You asked if they were involved. Of course, it's time to address each one of these guys established dealership, but the edge was who they were, not the name on the dealership door. Experience, instinct, judgment, the ability to navigate a deal, read a counterpoint and push something across the finish line. That was the business. Simple. Then the market changed. Aircraft transactions became more complex. After all, the dollars got lot bigger. Then there were cross-border structures. You asked if they were involved. Of course, as time progressed, each one of these guys established a dealership, but the edge was who they were, not the name on the dealership door. Experience, instinct, judgment, the ability to navigate a deal, read a counterpart and push something across the finish line. That was the business. Simple. Then the market changed. Aircraft transactions became more complex. After all, the dollars got a lot bigger. Then there were cross border structures. and financing layers and all sorts of regulatory structure. So what did the firms do? big ones anyway, they scaled up. Well, it was once a relationship business, started to look like a corporation, which means more people, more process, more structure. Yes, of course, favorite titles. And now, in all honesty, it's almost nauseating because the experience changed. No one wants to be handed off from one person to the next. and financing layers and all sorts of regulatory pressure. So what did the firms do? The big ones anyway, they scaled up. Well, it was once a relationship business started to look like a corporation, which means more people, more process, more structure. And yes, of course, my favorite more titles. And now in all honesty, it's almost nauseating because the experience changed. No one wants to be handed off from one person to the next. To the next. To the next. You start with a broker, then it's a team, then it's a team member, then it's an analyst, then it's legal, then closing, then someone else entirely. And guess what, folks? It seems to me a lot of people tolerate it because deals are still getting done. But the feelage of the transaction is gone. This business was built on instinct, relationships, negotiation, not internal routing systems. And here's the part no one wants to talk about. To the next. To the next. You start with a broker, then it's a team, then it's a team member, then it's an analyst, then it's legal, then closing, then someone else entirely. And guess what, folks? It seems to me a lot of people tolerate it because deals are still getting done. But the feel of the transaction is what's gone. This business was built on instinct, relationships, negotiation, not on internal routing systems. And here's the part no one wants to talk about. Yes, gross revenue. Gross revenue may be higher, but guess what? The net, it's the same because all those layers cost money. You're not creating efficiency. You're spreading the same economics across more people. So why is this business not a popular? Why build this way? Well, because in all honesty, it's not just about today's deal folks. It's about positioning. These firms are building what look like real companies. Yes, gross revenue, gross revenue may be higher, but guess what? The net it's the same because all those layers cost money. You're not creating efficiency. You're spreading the same economics across more people. So why is this business model popular? Why build it this way? Well, because in all honesty, it's not just about today's deal folks. It's about positioning. These firms are building what look like real companies. with structure and headcount and processes because at some point they want an end to And Wall Street doesn't buy horse drinkers. It buys organizations who are predictable, scalable, repeatable. So even if underneath it all, that this is a skill driven by individuals, because here's the irony, the deal still gets done the same way it always has through one person, one conversation, one decision, and a salesperson is talented and pushes the right moment. with structure and head count and processes because at some point they want an exit and Wall Street doesn't buy horse traders. It buys organizations who are predictable, scalable and repeatable. So even if underneath it all, the business is still driven by individuals because here's the irony, the deal still gets done the same way it always has through one person with one conversation, with one decision. and a salesperson who's talented who can push at the right moment. But today that person is harder to find. And that's the disconnect. We built companies to look bigger, more institutional, and in doing so, we made it harder to see who actually drives the outcome. So the industry ends up in a strange place, trying to look corporate while operating like a fragmented sales business. And in the middle of that tension, the client experience got lost. This episode is powered by VREF. But today that person is harder to find. And that's the disconnect. We built companies to look bigger, more institutional, and in doing so, we made it harder to see who actually drives the outcome. So the industry ends up in a strange place, trying to look corporate while operating like a fragmented sales business. In the middle of that tension, the client experience got lost. This episode is powered by VREF, the standard in aircraft valuation. standard in aircraft valuation. If you're buying, selling, financing, or just trying to understand what your aircraft is really worth, VREF it. VREF online gives you the data that actually drives decisions, not opinions, not listings, not guesswork. Go to VREF.com and VREF it before you make the call. So if modern aircraft transactions really fail, rarely fail because of one big issue, If you're buying, selling, financing, or just trying to understand your aircraft is really worth VREF it. VREF online gives you data that actually drives decisions, not opinions, not listings, not guesswork. Go to VREF.com and VREF it before you make the call. So if modern aircraft transaction really fail, rarely fail because of one big issue. They break down in small predictable ways, points in the process where momentum is lost and never fully recovered. And so let's talk about some of the ways that the process breaks. The first is documentation negotiation, which should be focused on exercise, aligning the war and suffer on the key terms of the deal turns into a prolonged cycle of revisions. The purchase agreement moves between multiple parties, council, council, then there's lenders, council, buyers. They break down in small predictable ways, points in the process where momentum is lost and never fully recovered. And so let's talk about some of the ways that the process breaks. The first is documentation negotiation, which should be focused exercise aligning buyer and seller on the key terms of the deal turns into a prolonged cycle of revisions. The purchase agreement moves between multiple parties, council, council, lenders council, buyers council, sellers council, in-house council, and often input from brokers or advisors. And as I said, each participant is doing exactly what they're supposed to do, protecting their positioning, tightening their language, and reducing their risk. But collectively, the document stops progressing towards an actual agreement, and it starts going sideways because the clauses expand, definitions get redefined, protections layer on top of protections. sellers, in-house counsel, and often input from brokers or advisors. And as I said, each participant is doing exactly what they're supposed to do, protecting their position, tightening their link, and reducing their risk. But collectively, the document stops progressing towards an actual agreement, and it starts going sideways because the clauses expand, definitions get redefined, actions layer on top of protections. And while the document improves in isolation, the deal itself weakens. And while the document improves in isolation, the deal itself weakens because time is not neutral in a transaction. As days pass, the conditions shift. Buyers start to second guess and sellers start to recalibrate. And external factors, things like rates and the overall market and competing opportunities of other aircraft that come to market, those begin to influence behavior. See, the truth is an aircraft transaction, it requires momentum. Without it, because time is not neutral transaction. As days pass, the conditions check. Buyers start to second guess and sellers start to recalibrate. And external factors, things like rates and the overall market and competing opportunities of other aircraft that come to market, those begin to influence behavior. See, the truth is an aircraft driving transaction, it requires momentum. Without it, confidence completely erodes. And confidence completely erodes. the second failure point I see is the pre-buy inspection because originally the pre-buy was designed as a targeted evaluation, clearly scoped, tied directly to the PA and intended to confirm condition, not redefine the transaction. Today, it often becomes something else entirely. And I've talked about this in other episodes as more stakeholders become involved. The second failure point I see is the pre-buy inspection because originally the pre-buy was designed as a targeted evaluation, clearly scoped, tied directly to the P.A. and intended to confirm condition, not redefine the transaction. Today, it often becomes something else entirely and I've talked about this in other episodes. As more stakeholders become involved, those technical consultants and the lenders, the advisors, that scope expands. Now each party wants to those technical consultants and the lenders and the advisors, that scope expands. Now each party wants completeness. No one wants exposure. So additional items start to get introduced. More systems start to get reviewed. More inspections begin to resemble an open-ended audit. The shift has consequences, people, because time increases, costs rise, but more importantly, the volume of things, of findings grows, right? So those discrepancies, that list, that gets bigger. No one wants exposure. So additional items start to get introduced. More systems start to get reviewed. More inspections begin to resemble an open-ended audit. The shift has consequences, because time increases, rise, but more importantly, the volume of findings grows, right? So those discrepancies, that list, that gets bigger. And not all of them are equal. When everything is documented, the signal gets buried in the voice. Those minor squawks, and not all of them are equal. When everything is documented, the signal gets buried in the noise. Those minor squawks sit next to meaningful issues and each becomes a point in negotiation. And this is why sellers push back so hard. Instead of creating clarity, the process creates friction. So let's talk about one more, the third. And I think this is the most critical. This is the break point in decision-making. This is where transactions stall completely in a multi-layered structure. sit next to meaningful issues and each becomes a point of negotiation and this is why sellers push back so hard. Instead of creating clarity, the process creates friction. So let's talk about one more, the third. And I think this is the most critical. This is the break point in decision-making. This is where transactions fall completely in a multi-layered structure because responsibility becomes diffused. The buyers look to those advisors and the advisors refer to the data. because responsibility becomes diffused and buyers look to those advisors and the advisors defer to the data. See, legal teams request further revisions and the lenders start to ask for additional comfort and everybody's engaged, but nobody's accountable for that final decision. And without a clear decision maker, the progress completely stops. And I said this earlier, it's not because there's something wrong with the airplane. And it's certainly not because the pricing was wrong. It's because no one is willing or empowered to say, See, legal teams are pressed further revisions and the lender is put to ask for additional comfort. And everybody's engaged, but nobody's accountable for the final decision. And without a clear decision maker, the progress completely stops. And I said this earlier, it's not because there's something wrong with the airplane. And it's certainly not because the pricing is wrong. It's because no one is willing or empowered to say, is acceptable. Let's move forward. And in that vacuum, hesitation takes over. This is acceptable. Let's move forward. And in that vacuum, hesitation takes over and hesitation kills deals because transactions don't require perfect information. They require informed judgment, which gets applied at the right moment. When that moment passes, the opportunity doesn't wait. It disappears. That's where the process breaks, not from lack of effort, but from lack of control. And here's the uncomfortable truth. and hesitation kills deals because transactions don't require perfect information. They require informed judgment, which gets applied at the right moment. When that moment passes, the opportunity doesn't wait. It disappears. That's where the process breaks, not from lack of effort, but from lack of control. And here's the uncomfortable truth. A bigger team does not mean a better transaction. In fact, in many cases, it creates the illusion of Bigger team does not mean a better transaction. In fact, in many cases, it creates the illusion of sophistication. It looks impressive, multiple professionals, detailed processes, extensive documentation, massive payrolls, dozens and dozens of listings, and that feels safer to a buyer than a website with no serial numbers on it and 50 aircraft listed with file photos. See, it does go both ways. It does signal to a lot of people It looks impressive, multiple professionals, detailed processes, extensive documentation, massive payroll, dozens and dozens of listings, and that feels safer to a buyer than a website with no serial numbers on it, and 50 aircraft missed the profile photos. See, it does go both ways. It does signal to a lot of people institutional quality, thoroughness, control, but sometimes beneath that. institutional quality, thoroughness, control. But sometimes beneath that, you often have slower execution, higher transaction costs, increased misalignment. No one's talking about responsibility for when there's problems. And then lastly, which I think is kind of a big one, is all these firms have a normal social media presence. And in my opinion, that erodes privacy because the deals don't close on structure, they close on alignment. you often have slower execution, higher transaction costs, increased misalignment. No one's talking about responsibility when there's problems. And then lastly, which I think is kind of a big one, is all these firms have a normal social media presence. And in my opinion, that erodes privacy because the deals don't close on structure, they close on alignment. And alignment becomes exponentially harder as you add more participants to a deal. and alignment becomes exponentially harder as you add more participants to a deal. And at some point, the process stops serving the transaction. It stops serving the parties and the transaction starts serving the process. And that's when you've lost control. So what I want to talk about now is how deals actually get done because for all the structure, all the layers, all the process, deals still close the same way they always have, right? One person who takes control of a moment. And at some point, the process stops serving the transaction. It stops serving the parties and the transaction starts serving the process. And that's when you lost control. So what I want to talk about now is how deals actually get done because for all the structure, all the layers, all the process, deals still close the same way they always have. Right? One person takes control of a moment. Who's really good at selling. You know, side note, I learned the hard way. who's really good at selling. know, side note, I learned the hard way. You can't really teach someone how to sell from scratch. You can go to all the classes you want. You can go to all the mentors you want, but you either have the innate ability to sell or you don't. And I think that this is a big deal because all the brokerage firms are looking for closers. They're looking for salespeople who are really, really good at selling. And I don't think that that's something that you can teach, but You can't really teach someone how to sell from scratch. You can go to all the classes you want. You can go to all the mentors you want, but you either have the innate ability to sell or you don't. And I think that this is a big deal because all the brokers are looking for closers, are looking for salespeople who are really, really good at selling. And I don't think that's something that you can teach. But despite everything we've done in this industry, all the things we've added aircraft transactions, Despite everything we've done in this industry, all the things we've added, aircraft transactions are still done by humans. There's no AI coming anytime soon for any broker. Don't worry about your jobs. They don't close because a process was followed perfectly. These deals close because someone understands how these transactions work and where the risk is and how to make a decision. And one that's acting in the best interest of your client, not in the best interest of the firm. are still done by humans. There's no AI coming anytime soon for any broker. Don't worry about your jobs. They don't close because the process was followed perfectly. These deals close because someone understands how these transactions work and where the risk is and how to make a decision and one that's acting in the best interest of your client, not in the best interest of the firm. And this is why no one would be successful selling software to handle the purchase process. It just adds more layers, more distrust. And this is why no one will ever be successful selling software to handle the purchase process. It just adds more layers, more distrust and more security issues. The truth is the way things work now have been tested for over 40 years. The process with escrow and private closings it's tried, it's true, and there's no reason to mess with it. That's the part no system can replace. In every successful transaction, there's a point where the noise gets cut out. and more security issues. The truth is the way things work now have been tested for over 40 years. The process with escrow and private closings, it's tried, it's true, and there's no reason to mess with it. That's the part no system can replace. In every successful transaction, there's a point where the noise gets cut out, the document is good enough, the inspection is understood, the risk is acceptable. And when someone says, we're moving forward, The document is good enough. inspection is understood. The risk is acceptable. And when someone says, we're moving forward. That's it. Not perfection, just alignment. The problem today is that moment is getting harder to reach. As I said, there's too many people, too many perspectives, too many reasons to wait for more information, more certainty, and more protection. But these deals don't reward perfect information. They reward informed judgment, just like any transaction. And the best operators in this market understand that. They control the scope early. That's it. Not perfection, just alignment. The problem today is that moment is getting harder to reach. As I said, there's too many people, too many perspectives, too many reasons to wait for more information and more certainty and more protection. But these deals don't reward perfect information. They reward informed judgment, just like any transaction. And the best operators in this market understand that. They control the scope early. They keep communication tight. They know where flexibility exists and where it doesn't. They don't let minor issues become major negotiations or tactics to unwind a deal. And more importantly, they maintain momentum because momentum is what carries a deal through uncertainty and through really tough markets. Because without it, everything feels bigger than it is. Those problems, start to expand and start to creep in. They keep communication tight. They know where flexibility exists and where it doesn't. They don't let minor issues become major negotiations or tactics to unwind a deal. And more importantly, they maintain momentum because momentum is what carries a deal through uncertainty and through really tough markets. Because without it, everything feels bigger than it is. Those problems, start to expand and doubts start to creep in. And those positions, people start to take harder ones. And with it, issues get resolved. This is where experience matters. Not just knowing the market, but knowing when to push back, when to concede, and when to close. See, those are skills of a salesman and of a broker that can't teach. That's what I'm trying to explain. Because at the end of the day, every deal comes down to the same thing. Someone's got to own it. And those positions, people start to take harder ones. And with it, issues get resolved. This is where experience matters. Not just knowing the market, but knowing when to push back, when to concede and when to close. See, those are skills of a salesman and another broker that you can't teach. That's what I'm trying to explain. Because at the end of the day, every deal comes down to the same thing. Someone's got to own it. not manage it, not review it, just own it, drive it forward and finish it. And that's how deals actually get done and it's how they always will get done. So let's talk a little bit about real consequences because all of this has real consequences, not theoretical, practical, because whether you're buying, selling or financing an aircraft, you're operating inside the structure, even if you don't think about it, are. Not manage it, not review it, but just own it, drive it forward and finish it. And that's how deals actually get done. And it's how they always will get done. So let's talk a little bit about real consequences because all of this has real consequences, not theoretical, practical, because whether you're buying, selling, or financing an aircraft or operating inside the structure, even if you don't think about it, you are. and how you navigate it to comes whether or not your deal closes or it vanishes into thin air. And for buyers, the instinct is to add protection or advisors or opinions, more validation at every step. It feels responsible, feels like it's the right thing to do. But beyond a certain point, it stops protecting you and starts working against you. Too many inputs create noise. heard this too many chefs in the kitchen. The same thing with the deal. Priorities were and how you navigate it determines whether or not your deal closes or it vanishes into thin air. And for buyers, the instinct is to add protection, more advisors, more opinions, more validation at every step. It feels responsible. It feels like it's the right thing to do. But beyond a certain point, it stops protecting you and starts working against you. Too many inputs create noise. You've heard this too many chefs in the kitchen. It's the same thing with a deal. Priorities blur. decision-making slows and the longer you take, the more leverage you lose because sellers sense hesitation every day and market conditions when they shift opportunities move on. And I do see a lot of people crying over spilt milk. They had a great deal and they walked or they pushed back too hard and the seller moved on. You know, clarity is more valuable than volume. Define what matters early. Set a discipline inspection scope. Decision making flows and the longer you take or leverage you lose because sellers stand hesitation every day and market conditions when they shift opportunities move on. And I do see a lot of people crying over spilled milk. They had a great deal and they walked or they pushed back too hard and the seller moved on. know, clarity is more valuable than volume. Define what matters early. Set a disciplined inspection scope. know what you're willing to accept and what you're not, then make decisions. Because in this market, hesitation doesn't create safety, it creates risk. For sellers, the challenge is different. You don't control how complex the market has become, but you do control how your deal is managed within it. If you allow the process to expand unchecked, it will. willing to accept and what you're not, then make decisions. Because in this market, hesitation doesn't create safety, it creates risk. For sellers, the challenge is different. You don't control how complex the market has become, but you do control how your deal is managed within it. If you allow the process to expand unchecked, it will. Timelines stretch inspection scopes will grow Negotiations will reopen on items that were never meant to be revisited and as that happens with position weekends It doesn't happen all at once, but it happen slowly Serious buyers question advisors introduce introduce new considerations. What began as a transaction turns into an ongoing evaluation Discipline matters You got to set expectations early you got a timeline you got it Timelines will stretch, inspection scopes will grow, negotiations will reopen on items that were never meant to be revisited, and as that happens, your position weakens. It doesn't happen all at once, but it does happen slowly. Serious buyers start to question, advisors introduce new considerations. What began as a transaction turns into an ongoing evaluation. Discipline matters, people. You gotta set expectations early, and you gotta define timelines. You gotta keep the pre-buy focused. my focus. establish your boundaries on what is and is not negotiable because once fomentum is lost, it's very difficult to recover. For lenders, the risk shows up in different form. The focus is naturally on security, structure, protection against the downside risk. All of that is very necessary, but execution matters just as much. Every additional condition, every added requirement, every delay, we will increase the chance the deal doesn't close. And a deal that doesn't close, it have retraction at all. clear boundaries around what is and is not negotiable because once momentum is lost, it's very difficult to recover. lenders, the risk shows up in different form. The focus is naturally on security, structure, protection against their downside risk. All of that is very necessary, but execution matters just as much. Every additional condition, every added requirement, every delay in approval increases the chance the deal doesn't close. And a deal that doesn't close carries no protection at all. That's a balance. The objective isn't to eliminate risk. It's to complete a transaction with an acceptable risk framework. Because in the end, a perfectly structured deal that never funds isn't the deal. It's a missed opportunity. If you're looking at an aircraft and wondering what it's actually worth, don't guess. VREF it. VREF online gives you real-time data, quarterly updates, and coverage across more than 900 aircraft models. Built on how the market actually behaves, not how it's actually. That's a balance. The objective isn't to eliminate risk. It's to complete a transaction within an acceptable risk framework. Because in the end, a perfectly structured deal that never funds isn't the deal. It's a missed opportunity. If you're looking at an aircraft and wondering what it's actually worth, don't guess. VREF it. VREF online gives you real time data, quarterly updates, and coverage across more than 900 aircraft models. Built on how the market actually behaves, not how it's advertised. This is the platform lenders, insurance companies, and serious operators rely on when the number has to hold up. Go to vref.com and vref it before you make a decision. So here's my final thought. There's a persistent belief in aviation that more structure equals more safety. And to a point, that's true. This is the platform lenders, insurance companies, and serious operators rely on when the number has to hold up. Go to vref.com and vref it before you make a decision. So here's my final thought. There's a persistent belief in aviation that more structure equals more safety. And to a point, that's true. Structure creates discipline. It reduces obvious mistakes. It brings consistency to complex transactions. But there is a line. And once you cross it, the benefits don't compound. They reverse. You don't get safer. You get slower. Decisions take longer. Communication stretches out. Those costs, they start to go up. And with every additional layer, the distance between structure creates discipline. It reduces obvious mistakes. brings consistency to complex transactions. But there is a line. And once you cross it, the benefits don't compound. They reverse. You don't get safer. You get slower. Decisions take longer. Communication stretches out. Those costs, they start to go up. And with every additional layer, the distance between action and outcome grows. action and outcome grows. That is where new risk lives because the greatest risk in a transaction isn't always what you missed. It's not the clause that could have been tighter or the inspection item that could have been expanded. It's losing the deal entirely, not through conflict, not through a clear no, but through erosion. Because once that momentum fades and the confidence weakens, That distance is where new risk lives because the greatest risk in a transaction isn't always what you missed. It's not the clause that could have been tighter or the inspection item that could have been expanded. It's losing the deal entirely, not through conflict, not through a clear no, but through erosion. Because once that momentum fades and the confidence weakens, those priorities are going to shift. And eventually the transaction just stops moving. No final decision. Those priorities are going to shift and eventually the transaction just stops moving. No final decision, no clear failure, just silence. Because no one could get to yes. That's the risk no model captures. And it's the one the industry continues to underestimate. The objective isn't to eliminate uncertainty. It is to manage it while still moving forward. Because in the end of the day, the transaction only has one outcome that matters. No clear failure, just silence. Because no one could get to yes. That's the risk no model captures. And it's the one the industry continues to underestimate. The objective isn't to eliminate uncertainty, it is to manage it while still moving forward. Because in the end of the day, a transaction only has one outcome that matters. It either closes or it doesn't. And anything that prevents that, no matter how well intentioned, isn't reducing risk. It either closes or it doesn't. And anything that prevents that, no matter how well intentioned, isn't reducing risk. It's creating it. If you're in an aircraft transaction right now, keep this in mind. Complexity isn't a strategy. Execution is. The best deals don't have the most people. have the most clarity, alignment, and someone being accountable for the outcome, looking out for your best interests, being a fiduciary. Know your objective. Define your limits. Move with purpose. It's creating it. If you're in an aircraft transaction right now, keep this in mind. Complexity isn't a strategy. Execution is. The best deals don't have the most people. They have the most clarity, alignment, and someone being accountable for the outcome and looking out for your best interest. Being a fiduciary. Know your objective. Define your limits. Move with purpose. Because this market doesn't reward process. It rewards decisions. If this resonated with you, please share it with someone. because this market doesn't reward process. It rewards decisions. If this resonated with you, please share it with someone who's navigating the deal today. That's how this podcast gets supported. Have no sponsors. It's through you listening. It's through you leaving us reviews and sharing hitting the subscribe button. And remember this podcast exists for one reason to analyze aircraft as capital instance without the brokerage thing, without the manufacturing area. who's navigating a deal today. That's how this podcast gets supported. We have no sponsors. It's through you listening. It's through you leaving us reviews and sharing and hitting the subscribe button. And remember, this podcast exists for one reason, to analyze aircraft as capital assets without the brokerage spin, without the manufacturer narrative. And lastly, when you need accurate, defensible and data-driven aircraft values, And lastly, when you need accurate, defensible, and data-driven aircraft values, there's only one name in the industry to trust. That's VRef. Visit VRef.com to get started today. Thank you for listening. I'm Jason Zilberbrand and this is The Truth About the Market. Until next time, fly safe and stay smart. There's only one name in the industry to trust. That's VREF. Visit VREF.com to get started today. Thank you for listening. I'm Jason Zilberbrand and this is the truth about the market. Until next time, fly safe and stay smart.