Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 298: Beef Demand Is Surging and Nobody Really Cares What It Costs with John Campbell

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298: Beef Demand Is Surging and Nobody Really Cares What It Costs with John Campbell · CattleUSA Daily

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In today's podcast episode with John Campbell, we are back once
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again after I've been out of the country for a few weeks.
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And John is here today to give us the market recap on what we
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have been seeing on the live cattle market in Lahana and then
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across the region over the past week.
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And 1/2 that John hasn't been on the podcast.
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And just what we've kind of been seeing, what trends are coming
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out of the mountains, what trends we're seeing across the
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Midwest, all of those things and what indicators we're seeing as
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we go into the next few months of spring and into summer as
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well. And then we go into a really
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honest and great conversation about beef demand and how that
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ties back to the market and what we're seeing there as well.
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Before we hop in, today's episode with John, if you're
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watching on YouTube, make sure you hit that subscribe button.
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And like this episode. If you're on any of our other
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podcast platforms, take a second to go rate and review the show,
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follow the show and share it with a friend.
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We appreciate all of those things here at the team.
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Without further ado, let's go ahead and hear from Mr. John
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Campbell. Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily
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podcast, your go to source for the latest livestock markets,
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industry insights and the updates shaping agriculture
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today. I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a
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passionate advocate for agriculture here to keep you
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informed and connected. Now let's dive into today's
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episode. John, welcome back to the
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podcast. It is so good to see you.
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It feels like it has been an eternity since we have been on
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together and chatting since I've been out of the country.
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But how are you? How has how's life been here
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stateside the past couple weeks? Wow, it's been great.
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You know Lauren, I noticed a little it looks like you've got
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this permanent moisturizer on you just kind of a glow now, not
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sweat, but you know, just I don't know if it's the humidity
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effect. I haven't noticed any, you know,
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Spanish coming out in your dialogue really, but I can tell
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others the Brazilian effect is there.
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I it's just everything, you know, the look, the haircut, the
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now, I don't know, I heard you had some funky ass drinks.
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So I'm not in close enough proximity to do a breath test,
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but I can see it. I can see it in I just see it in
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your face. It just, I'm sure your husband
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noticed, you know? The Brazil effect is definitely
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there. I came back with a little bit of
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a tan. I can say that the humidity
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definitely stayed with me. And we landed here in Kansas and
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it was like a chill, brisk 60° out.
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And I about cried. I was like, Oh my gosh, praise
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the Lord, I am not ready for I was tired of sweating.
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But yes, I am very happy to be back.
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I can honestly say that I only learned one word in Portuguese
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while I was there and that was, yes, it's Portuguese there which
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you think is close enough to Spanish.
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And I can speak some Spanish like I I can, I can get around
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in Spanish and so. When you hear.
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Portuguese, yeah. I mean, you know, those are part
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of the limited capabilities I have, but you would think that
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it's close enough and that you could get by.
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Well, it looks very similar, but it's not.
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And if you sit there and you try and compare Portuguese to
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Spanish, you're going to get lost.
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And there were a lot of times, like I could follow along just
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based off of like, especially once we got to the end of the
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trip, I started to be able to interpret some of the things
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people were saying and all of that jazz.
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But the only word I actually learned was thank you.
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And otherwise I'm out. I, I have no Portuguese in my
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system. I am absolutely worthless.
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If we did not have people there to interpret for us the whole
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week I would have learned nothing, so can say that in full
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honesty. You know, it's so funny because
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wherever I go, if I'm ever in a foreign country, just
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automatically go to my Spanish dialect.
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You know, where I got the, I'm always throwing this Spanish
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jargon out. They're saying, you know, I
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don't know if they speak a lot of Spanish up here in Canada or
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wherever I need. Maybe, you know, out on some,
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you know, island somewhere in the Caribbean, while I
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automatically just say, well hell, they probably speak
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Spanish here. Oh my gosh.
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We did have a few people, especially some people from
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Southwest Hansen. Every once in a while they would
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catch themselves saying something in Spanish and then
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they would be like that's the wrong word.
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These people don't know Spanish at all.
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Yeah, they probably know more English than they do Spanish,
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actually. So I think that we gave, we were
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a group of 30 of us. We absolutely portrayed American
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in every way, shape and form, no matter how much you tried to
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hide it. You're Americans in a foreign
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country like that, and you look like Americans.
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And I guarantee you a bunch of those places got a good laugh
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out of us. So if nothing else, we left.
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We left some places with some good giggles and some stories
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about the darn Americans that came to visit.
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That's great. That's great.
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Oh yes, yes, it, it was a great trip.
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It was a great trip. Well, let's, let's we can touch
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more on Brazil if we've got some time here in a little bit.
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But what's been going on with the markets the past couple
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weeks? John, can you give me the low
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down there? Here in La Hotta 1066 cattle, I
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thought everything pretty much daddy really would last week and
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last week the trade would have been a little better.
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We still had three weight cabs, just packages of cabs,
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lightweight cabs. You know, we're here the first
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of April. So any of the little lightweight
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cabs in the country where they cab in the spring, why they're
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almost non existent, you know, but some little dried out cabs
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weighing 3 1/2 up to 560. We had some 5 weight steers up
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to 520, which I think last week the best 5-O 234.
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But you're really talking about differences in quality and
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volume now than you are market trends.
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But so you could actually call that quite a little better.
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But market is still really stout where and when you have these
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lightweight cabs that got some condition available. 575 LB
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steers here in Lahata at 470. We had a load of 675 LB steers
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up to 395. The 775 LB Big Brothers at 364
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for the kind and the day I called it steady heifer side of
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things, 2 weight heifers, the 510, some 415 LB heifers up to
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495. Again here in Lahata, 5 weight
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heifers to 41 out of 6 weight efforts.
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They were red and Black Eyed at the 398 and had some £700
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replacement efforts up to three 2 1/2 so you really couldn't
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call anything any cheaper. Dry weather here to the West of
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us and we're drying a lot of also, but really starting to
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bring some bred cows and pears to the auction everybody.
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That's kind of the first phase of the cutback when you think
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it's going to get dry. They cut into any of the cows
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that haven't calved yet. Why those are the 1st to go and
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and we're but real dry West here.
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I think they're getting some snow now.
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Let's hope it amounts to something.
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But we kind of saw the first run near the bulk of our run this
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week would have been cows and bears had some solid mouth cows.
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They were black, black balding cows.
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I'd call them kind of on the thin inside, a medium flash.
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They have little tiny cabs, kind of weak to three-week old, but
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good quality cabs. Those pairs brought 4400 and
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their broken mouth sisters brought 3625.
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Also some springers over in the Four Corners area here in La
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Jolla. Black, black baldy, three to
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five year old cows, guys just out of water.
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They brought 4500 each and they they were all heavy springers
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going to cab here in the next 30 days.
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Sold some red solid mouth again heavy springers up to 3800.
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A little more pressure I thought this week on on the older cows
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here in La Jolla, not quite as active bulk of the older cows
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the market was more like 28 up to 3150.
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And for the first time why some of these out of step older cows
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and by that I mean cows that are going to cap through the summer
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and fall. The away cow market has gotten
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good enough. Most of those cows all went to
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slaughter. Well, we're up until now there'd
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been pretty good interest in in buying even those lake cabin old
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cows to go back to the country. So feed prices working up a
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little bit here and the older, like I said later, cabin cows
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get a little harder to sell. Yeah, definitely starting to see
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some of the drought impact start to hit our sail barns.
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It's something we talked a little bit about before I left
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for Brazil. And definitely starting to see a
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lot more of those bread cattle start to trickle in as people
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start to make those decisions for their kind of areas and
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regions. Is this something we're kind of
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seeing across the board, John? What else are we seeing
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regionally if we look at things outside of Lahana as well?
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Well. First of all, I want to qualify
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that if it does start to rain and snow here, you'll be
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required to make several trips back and forth to Brazil, you
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know, to kind of help the cause a little bit.
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I'll see what you know, we'll pass the added.
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But anyway, we'll you know. Don, if you can get me a first
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class ticket, I'm down. If I get to be in a lay down
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seat, I will. I will make the sacrifice for
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the whole of the cattle industry.
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And it rained while I was gone. It rained when I came back, so
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if we start to get superstitious here and think that I need to go
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back to Brazil a couple times, if you and your buddies can and
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the audience members get me first class tickets to and from
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probably flying Delta Airlines, we can talk.
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OK, something that you know from the tone, your tone there.
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I you remind me a lot of me, you are a basic economy flyer with
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your knees up around your chin and you kind of look up there
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through the curtain and you think, so that's what 11,000
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dollars did you? Do you sit in the seats that
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give you the six extra inches of legroom?
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I did fold on the way there and the way back it was a 10 hour.
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It's a 10 hour flight on and so I got the six extra inches of
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legroom for like $175 a flight and I can say with full
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confidence it was worth every penny.
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I think everybody can relate to that because I, I always blow up
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and I, I tell my wife, you know, just one time I'm so sick and
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tired of being back there and crammed in that deal.
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We're going to fly first class. And then I get the then I get
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the stead fee on 1st class deal and think, well, maybe not this
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time, but by God, next time we're going to do it.
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Oh, it's crazy the markup in that.
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I mean, Oh my gosh, it, it humbles you in a hurry anyway,
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or it does mean anyway. Oh brother.
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Anyway, around the area, yeah, you know, you're seeing some, a
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little bit of the dry weather effect.
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I, I think we're first because we draw out of a, a
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geographically a, a much bigger area.
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So we see some of these dry weather cattle show up that I, I
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don't think we're seeing so much of at our other locations.
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Dodge City with 15196 cattle kind of a normal run for them
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this time of year at some 636 LB steers in, in Dodge.
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And then what this would have been this Wednesday or 47 and a
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quarter weight steers at 387 1/2.
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We'll talk about it later. But we have just seen a
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tremendous surge in the Commodity Futures market in
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makes the cash a lot more attractive when you got a got a
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big big up in in the board 8 weight cattle at Dodge at 368
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and they sold 875 LB stairs at 35975.
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There an effort deal I thought pretty much like ours, 454 LB
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efforts at 470, the 540 weights at 462.
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They sold some 595 LB appers probably pretty fancy up to 419.
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Some 7 weight cattle within a buck of what we got for our 7
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weight replacements at 363 1/2, 8 weight cattle at 328 go to
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Pratt 31176 cattle. I would say the wheat run is
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kind of winding down. You know we're 1st of April here
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and they'll no doubt be some Grays out.
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But I guess you could say the dry weather is pulling some
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cattle forward. But I don't I don't know if the
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weed'll make it on on end of May if they don't get a little help
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from from the weatherman, but Brad had an excellent market.
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It'll be interesting to see how they get along today.
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Fundamentals would be better today than they were last week
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for sure if if they got the quality and condition that they
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did. But last week sold some 3 weight
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cabs up north of seven dollars 750 on some little 3 weight cabs
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and seven O 2 on some way and 3:50 had four weight steers and
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Pratt to 592 five weight cabs to 5:15.
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You get into the six weight cattle, which on east of Pratt
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conditions are really good, you know, so they're burning, you
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know, back El Dorado and around there and and just getting ready
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probably in the next two or three weeks to start turning out
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the double stock cattle. So 6 weights are really really
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popular and and Pratt kind of showed that with getting 452 on
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some 6 weight steers and right up against $4.00 on some cattle
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weighing 7 heifer side of thing. 350 weight heifers AT5954
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weights at five, 62530 LB heifers.
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Pratt, KS at 432. They had 6 weight heifers up to
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384 and 7 weights at at 3:53. I did talk to Clay Parsons at at
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our facility in Marana, AZ. They had the 22111 cattle there
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yesterday, Wednesday, and I thought they just had a
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phenomenal market, 440 weight steers at 565 weight steers at
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5:44. You know that that would be as
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high as anywhere in the north and 650 LB black, red hided
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steers, Clay said. Rock 445 They had some 450
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weight heifers right there in southern Arizona at 495, some 5
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weight Eppers weight 520 at 4:50 and then some 630 LB cattle at
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397 1/2. So you know, availability and
15:04
and quality kind of Trump's a lot, a lot of things even
15:08
location you still get it at auction if if you got the goods.
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So I just thought that was an outstanding market again,
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halfway around the world. Yeah, absolutely.
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It's so encouraging to hear just market prices continue to stay
15:22
where they are and continue to be competitive in the live
15:26
cattle market as we go through things.
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So today, you kind of wanted to talk a little bit about beef
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demand a little bit, John. So I'd love to hear kind of your
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talk takes and thoughts on everything that's going on in
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the market as a whole and just beef demand in general.
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Yeah, you know, and, and and everything kind of ties
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together, but it's just been amazing to me how resilient this
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cattle fundamentals have been. You know, the cattle futures
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have really been on a rally April up $16.00 a hundred and
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I'm talking about once again, the fat cattle on the futures
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since March the 9th. They are looks like we're headed
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back going to fill that 250 Trump Argentine gap that we
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created back in October. And you know, an interesting
16:19
fact, the June live cattle is higher than the April and it's
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only happened once in the last 20 years.
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I thought, I thought that was pretty interesting.
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I, you know, Dan would have a lot better explanation for the
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whereabouts and the wise and, and and all of that for sure.
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But you know, it really signals that numbers are going to be
16:41
tight when we get into the summer grilling season.
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You know, June is never better on fat cattle that than April
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just the 99% of the time, which so it it, it's, it's an
16:54
interesting scenario that we're setting up here on the fat
16:57
cattle and really in the same sense, pretty suspicious why,
17:01
you know, the Packers last week, we're really actively trying to
17:05
contract inventory out front. And then lo and behold, a short
17:11
time after that. Why, what do you know, the, the
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June futures run past the run past the April, you know, how do
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they know that? But they've got an inside scoop
17:21
somewhere. But I, I really doubt if they'll
17:23
be able to buy, you know, 235 would buy some cattle in
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Northern Colorado and Nebraska last week and the premium
17:31
actually being paid for plainer cattle in Texas, you get 3/30/38
17:36
for them. But with a 244 April board as of
17:41
right now as we speak, I would doubt if they'll be able to buy
17:44
many cattle again at 2:35. But you know, the plant closures
17:49
and, and more cattle in the north have, have kind of allowed
17:52
them to hold Colorado, Nebraska gunpoint on these big cattle.
17:57
But hopefully all that, that changes this week.
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Everyone asking, you know, are are, are we that short of
18:05
cattle? You know, carcass weights are up
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and, and they've been up. We're at record levels 950 lbs I
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think this week compared to £15 a year ago.
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And our five year average is 885.
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You know, everybody's just trying to connect the dots in
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here and say, my gosh, are are we that short of cattle to
18:27
justify what, what, what we're seeing going on?
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You know, imports are at an all time high despite the, the high
18:34
tariffs. Our imports are up 18% in 2025 /
18:39
2024 and we're shipping less cattle out there, down 12%.
18:44
And in the last year, just doing a little research year, we
18:48
imported twice as many cattle as we exported and, and, and that's
18:53
never happened before. You know, fed cattle prices are
18:56
up $80 a hundred higher than our five year average and, and even
19:03
$30 a hundred than what we were selling fed cattle for last
19:07
year. Beef production in 25, it is
19:11
only 4% less than it was in 24, but the beef cut out value up
19:17
$85 a hundred compared to last week.
19:22
So you, you see all of those, those fundamentals on the supply
19:28
side and makes you question that, but it, it, it must be
19:33
demand. You know, back in 2009 per
19:38
capita consumption of beef was 54 lbs.
19:42
In 2025 it was £59. So on average we're up 10%.
19:49
And as we mentioned before, hamburger accounts to 29 lbs of
19:54
the £59 that we eat every year. And you know, Lauren, like we
19:59
talked about before the podcast, I just really think beef is
20:04
trending up in, in, in popularity.
20:07
I I really credit, you know, Robert Kennedy, Brooke Rollins
20:11
and Elda Traeger Grill have done more for beef's image and demand
20:15
in the last 12. Months, then the check off is
20:18
done. 40 years. Consumption is finally going up
20:23
even with beef being the as high as it's ever been in history.
20:28
I think they're by putting beef back on the top of the food
20:32
pyramid and vegetable oil is is now a complete train wreck.
20:37
And it used to be the only way to go.
20:39
And beef tallow is limit up on the the health commodity market.
20:43
The Atkins diet, the anti carb Bush has been better than the
20:47
sex for the obese. So we can look you can look at
20:51
that the green egg and the trigger effect has turned
20:54
everyone with the least a 14 IQ and and with a pulse.
20:59
Why they've all become master chefs.
21:01
And it just seems like beef to me is is kind of the next
21:05
Starbucks because nobody seems to care what it costs.
21:08
Plus, you know, you don't even have to learn a new vocabulary
21:12
and to order it. Its popularity, I think is
21:14
running neck and neck with Mac and cheese and bottled water.
21:18
You know, with the premiums being paid for these big long
21:22
fed cattle. Everything is grading choice and
21:26
prime and you've got places like the Golden Corral and the steak
21:31
entree entree with the steak and eggs at Waffle House and even
21:36
Captain DS is is serving choice beef and everyone's finding out.
21:41
I I think what they've been missing.
21:44
The next accomplishment is if 711 the quick stop and loves
21:49
convenience stores if they'd never figure out how to keep
21:52
state fit to eat under one of them heat lamps.
21:56
We might replace potato wedges and chicken gizzards as a
22:00
traveler and truck drivers main food source.
22:03
So that that's what we're shooting for that that's got to
22:06
be the goal coming up. You like truck stop gizzards,
22:10
Lauren? I have had them before.
22:11
I have I. The main staple?
22:16
You tell me you're an over the road driver and all these miles
22:20
you put in and everything and you haven't ever got in there
22:23
and mucked them old mashed potatoes out of one of them
22:26
Styrofoam cups and scraped it on your chicken gizzard.
22:29
Come on, follow that with a big old potato wedge.
22:33
Hell, you haven't lived. John, I have had them before.
22:36
Am I going to stop at a loves and be like that's what I'm
22:39
having for dinner? No, I can honestly say that that
22:43
is not tipping. Basically my first go to.
22:47
I would love to see if Love's and Casey's and all these places
22:51
can figure out how to get a good quality steak in there.
22:55
But at the same time, I still don't know if I would 100% be
22:59
like, give me that steak under that warmer.
23:02
Boys and girls, I'm just going to knock gnaw on that T-bone
23:05
while I'm driving down the road. Ladies and gentlemen, let's go.
23:09
That's the only obstacle standing in our way.
23:12
You know, I mean, if we can crack that egg like hell, we,
23:17
we, we, we got it made. Don't you really think I, I, I
23:20
mean, my whole point is, I just think beef is kind of on a roll
23:24
and it's the, it's, it's kind of the new craze almost.
23:28
And we've got a lot of things work in our favor if we can just
23:33
kind of take advantage of it and I don't end up having to give
23:36
all the goodie to the Packer. Why I think we're in for the
23:39
long haul going to be all. Right.
23:40
I could not agree more. And I think the numbers are
23:42
following it right now. We've been seeing the trend over
23:45
the past year and continue to see as we go into a heavier
23:48
grilling season. So I'm really excited to see
23:50
what beef demand looks like as we go into summer, as we go into
23:54
those heavier grilling seasons and people are able to start
23:56
getting outdoors again and get a little bit more creative with
23:59
what they've got in their freezer these days and what
24:01
they've got available to them within their price ranges as
24:04
well. It's going to be really exciting
24:06
to see it continue to evolve and hopefully continue to trickle
24:09
down to US producers as well and the positivity that we have been
24:13
seeing in the live cattle market as we go into summer and into
24:17
these coming months as well. So John, do you have any other
24:20
closing thoughts or anything else before we wrap up the
24:22
podcast? I unfortunately have a class I
24:25
have to go teach here in a few minutes then go educate some
24:29
college kids on life and marketing and all the things so
24:33
I can't sit around and chat forever unfortunately.
24:35
But do you have any other closing comments or thoughts
24:37
before we wrap it up today? I would just say emphasize to
24:41
those privileged few that that you're going to be talking to
24:45
that they really need to kind of try to go without, you know, try
24:51
a deep fat fried potato wedge. You know, go, go out of your
24:55
comfort zone, eat a few gizzards and you'll start to appreciate
25:00
the finer things in life. Lauren, I, I mean, I know you're
25:02
a world traveler and you know, you got that glow about you and
25:06
maybe that didn't come from chicken gizzards.
25:08
You, you know, there's another world out there, Lauren, there's
25:11
another world out there. You just and now I don't want
25:14
you coming back with a potato wedge and a cigarette hanging
25:16
out of your mouth next week. But, you know, kind of step out
25:19
of your comfort zone a little. I will go and do that today,
25:22
John. I will go step out of my comfort
25:24
zone. But I don't know if for the sake
25:27
of my gut and my well-being, I will choose the chicken gizzard
25:32
that the local loves. But I will I will challenge
25:36
everyone to go step out of your comfort zone.
25:38
And if you want to make John's day, go to your local gas
25:41
station, get you some chicken gizzards and some mashed
25:43
potatoes, and send him an e-mail with a photo of you eating it so
25:47
that he can get some joy out of it.
25:49
Okay, all right, maybe, maybe next week we'll talk about being
25:53
a sausages and potted meat product.
25:56
You know, put a little muck a little of that out on an old
25:59
saltine cracker. What?
26:01
I think this is where we end this podcast, John.
26:04
I think we're found the Cliff and we've jumped over it at this
26:08
point. I love it.
26:09
I love it. Well, John, as always, thank you
26:11
so much for your time. To all of you listeners out
26:13
there, thanks for tuning into another episode of the Cattle
26:16
USA Daily Podcast. I hope you guys have a great
26:19
rest of your day and we will see you all next time.
26:21
Have a good one y'all.