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Trump's only campaign idea is a bad one · INSIGHT TODAY

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: We are less than 10 weeks from the midterm elections,
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  Speaker 1: and typically this is the time when party leaders and
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  Speaker 1: also campaigns are making a lot of those final strategic
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  Speaker 1: decisions about how best to deploy their resources ahead of November.
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  Speaker 2: It's a constant discussion, but this is a big decision period.
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  Speaker 1: And while Donald Trump's agenda is unpopular and his approval
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  Speaker 1: rating is at historic lows, he does have a whole
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  Speaker 1: lot of money that could help Republicans in tough races
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  Speaker 1: if he wanted to use it in a wise way.
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  Speaker 1: The pro-Trump super PAC called Meg Inc. is currently sitting
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  Speaker 1: on more than $ 400 million.
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  Speaker 2: And The Atlantic.
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  Speaker 1: Is out with new reporting about how Trump wants his
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  Speaker 1: allies to spend that money in the lead up to
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  Speaker 1: Election Day.
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  Speaker 2: And guess what, everyone? It's kind of a shockingly stupid plan.
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  Speaker 2: Here's what it says.
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  Speaker 1: Here's what the story says, quote, rather than distance himself
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  Speaker 1: from congressional elections, the preference of some Republican candidates in
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  Speaker 1: swing districts, I would note, Trump has argued that he
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  Speaker 1: can drive turnout in those races by making himself the
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  Speaker 1: center of the conversation. The president ordered a series of
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  Speaker 1: television advertisements about his own record. He suggested that the
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  Speaker 1: ad makers mine his own on-camera statements as building blocks.
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  Speaker 1: Go look at the clips, the president reportedly told his team.
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  Speaker 1: So basically, Trump wants to insert himself and his very
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  Speaker 1: unpopular agenda into this midterm election in swing districts right
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  Speaker 1: at the time when Republicans are doing, a lot of
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  Speaker 1: them are doing everything they can to run away from him.
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  Speaker 1: He wants his lackeys to go look at the clips
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  Speaker 1: of him over the past two years and pick a
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  Speaker 1: few moments to remind voters of right before the midterms.
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  Speaker 2: So we decided we'd help the folks over at MAG Inc. out.
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  Speaker 1: We're going to help them out a little bit by
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  Speaker 1: looking at some of those clips ourselves.
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  Speaker 2: And here's what we found.
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  Speaker 1: I don't think a beautiful baby girl that's 11 years
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  Speaker 1: old needs to have 30 dolls.
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  Speaker 3: I don't care about the midterms.
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  Speaker 2: I don't think about.
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  Speaker 3: American financial situation. I don't want to drive housing prices down.
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: I want to drive housing prices up.
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  Speaker 2: You know what I really love?
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  Speaker 3: I love the inflation. For you to pay a tiny
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  Speaker 3: little bit more for your gasoline, when you have to
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  Speaker 3: pay a little bit more, you're at $ 4.
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  Speaker 2: It's okay.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, it's, I'm not, I'm not, I'll never apologize.
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  Speaker 3: I did the right thing.
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  Speaker 2: I'm Jen Psaki, and I approve this message. All of that.
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  Speaker 1: And there's more where that came from. Joining me now
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  Speaker 1: is my friend and former boss, David Fluff. He served
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  Speaker 1: as campaign manager and senior advisor to Barack Obama, who's
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  Speaker 1: also a senior advisor to Kamala Harris's presidential campaign.
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  Speaker 2: And he did.
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  Speaker 1: A bazillion campaigns before all of that. Well, let me
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  Speaker 1: start with this. There's so many things I want to
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  Speaker 1: ask you about because we're so close to the election.
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  Speaker 1: But I just want to start with that strategy from
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  Speaker 1: the White House to make the midterms all about Donald Trump. Now,
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  Speaker 1: if the president is very popular, fair, he does still
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  Speaker 1: have a hold on his base, which is a percentage
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  Speaker 1: of the electorate. Most Democratic candidates in swing districts are
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  Speaker 1: certainly probably hoping they run with this.
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  Speaker 2: But what do you think of it?
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  Speaker 3: Well, Jen, I agree with you.
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  Speaker 4: I mean, it would appear at first glance and maybe
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  Speaker 4: second glance, like kind of historical political malpractice. The only
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  Speaker 4: thing worse than being a president when you're presiding over
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  Speaker 4: the country, when people are very unhappy, you're unpopular, they
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  Speaker 4: think you're doing a bad job, is trying to convince
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  Speaker 4: people they're wrong and you're right. So we saw a
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  Speaker 4: little bit of this, you know, with Bidenomics in the
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  Speaker 4: last administration. You remember back in 12 when Barack Obama
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  Speaker 4: won reelection in a really tough economic climate, we were
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  Speaker 4: very careful not to get too far beyond where the
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  Speaker 4: voters would accept.
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  Speaker 3: So I think it's a disastrous strategy.
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  Speaker 4: Now, I have learned it's always important when in any
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  Speaker 4: competitive environment or endeavor, you know, when your opponent's doing
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  Speaker 4: something that you think is dumb to step back and say, well,
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  Speaker 4: what what maybe do they see that we don't see?
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  Speaker 4: And the only thing and it's a stretch would be
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  Speaker 4: to say maybe in some of these deep red states
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  Speaker 4: or at least reddish states like Ohio or in Iowa,
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  Speaker 4: in Alaska, that maybe some Trump positives might help both
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  Speaker 4: with vote share and turnout.
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  Speaker 3: I think that's very unlikely. So I think this is
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  Speaker 3: not strategy. This is ego.
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  Speaker 4: And as we've always seen, even if there's advisors telling
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  Speaker 4: him it's the wrong thing to do, no one's able
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  Speaker 4: to keep him from self-immolating. So, you know, I think
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  Speaker 4: we've all been worried about his war chest. But if
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  Speaker 4: they're going to spend it in this way, it actually
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  Speaker 4: may be an in-kind contribution to Democrats, pleasantly so.
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  Speaker 2: It certainly may be.
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  Speaker 1: They're going to be welcoming the ads in some places.
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  Speaker 2: But that's a very interesting point.
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  Speaker 1: It's always important to be clear eyed going this close
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  Speaker 1: to an election. So everyone at home is wondering where
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  Speaker 1: things sit.
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  Speaker 2: Right. Trump is underwater on every issue.
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  Speaker 1: We have seen a lot of enthusiasm in special elections
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  Speaker 1: and primaries. Democrats are also dealing with a whole lot
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  Speaker 1: of gerrymandering, making seats less competitive in some places. Donald
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  Speaker 1: Trump has a lot of money at his disposal. So
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  Speaker 1: just you think about all these factors you have through
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  Speaker 1: so many election cycles. You're a data guy to level
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  Speaker 1: set for us. Where do things sit for house control?
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  Speaker 1: How many could swing? What's the range in your view?
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  Speaker 1: And same with the Senate.
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  Speaker 4: Well, interestingly enough, there's probably a little more play in
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  Speaker 4: the Senate because of just the natural state of so
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  Speaker 4: few competitive House districts and then the gerrymandering play where
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  Speaker 4: the Republicans did net. You know, I think our ceiling
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  Speaker 4: is more limited than we saw back in 2006 or
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  Speaker 4: 2008 or even 2018. But obviously, we've got very strong,
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  Speaker 4: strong tailwinds. You know, the Senate, I think there's more
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  Speaker 4: play there. There are more seats that potentially could be
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  Speaker 4: won here than I think anybody would have thought at
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  Speaker 4: the beginning of the cycle.
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  Speaker 3: We've got strong candidates in many of them.
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  Speaker 4: That's what's going to take in some of the House
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  Speaker 4: districts on the outer edge of what's possible and certainly
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  Speaker 4: in a bunch of these Senate races. It's going to
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  Speaker 4: come down to just not the natural atmospherics, which are
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  Speaker 4: undeniably in Democrats favor.
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  Speaker 3: It's going to be candidates doing.
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  Speaker 4: Some special things and outperforming what the average Democrat might
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  Speaker 4: be able to do. So that's, again, back to where
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  Speaker 4: this Trump strategy on ads, again, maybe and they need
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  Speaker 4: help on turnout. So maybe they think it's going to
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  Speaker 4: help them on turnout. But generally, seeing him out there
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  Speaker 4: telling people how great things are when everybody think things
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  Speaker 4: are terrible. And that's going to put a lot of
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  Speaker 4: pressure on Republicans who are running for the House and Senate.
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  Speaker 4: They're going to have to respond to these ads. Do
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  Speaker 4: you agree with the president saying everything's OK and that
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  Speaker 4: inflation doesn't matter? And we should be willing to pay
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  Speaker 4: more in gas for this ridiculously ill-advised Iran war. It's
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  Speaker 4: going to resurface all these things. So it's not just
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  Speaker 4: the ads themselves. It's that it's going to add to
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  Speaker 4: an already really tough environment. So but, you know, Jen,
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  Speaker 4: my view is you and I have been through a
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  Speaker 4: lot of elections. And sometimes as a party, you have
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  Speaker 4: really bad headwinds and you're just trying to hold on.
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  Speaker 4: Sometimes you have tailwinds. This is a tailwind election. We
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  Speaker 4: don't know what it's going to be like in twenty
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  Speaker 4: eight or thirty. So if you're a Democrat, you want
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  Speaker 4: to grab every victory you can in this good environment,
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  Speaker 4: because if we lose, even if we win the House,
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  Speaker 4: you're going to want to be at that upper range.
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  Speaker 4: Same thing in the Senate, particularly in the Senate, where
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  Speaker 4: I think for a bunch of different reasons, none of
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  Speaker 4: them good in terms of our state of our democracy. Really,
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  Speaker 4: for the next 10 to 12 years, it's going to
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  Speaker 4: be really important for Democrats to hold power much more
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  Speaker 4: often than not.
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  Speaker 1: I remember well in 2006, we had never even, I
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  Speaker 1: worked at the DCCC, we'd never even talked to some
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  Speaker 1: of the candidates who won.
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  Speaker 2: That is a tailwind.
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  Speaker 1: Year and a different kind of year in terms of
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  Speaker 1: House seats.
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  Speaker 2: Let me ask you about the Senate.
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  Speaker 1: We talk about the key races a lot on this show.
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  Speaker 1: We talk about Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, Iowa, all key ones,
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  Speaker 1: North Carolina. And one of them may be the answer here,
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  Speaker 1: but Is there a race you're watching in the Senate
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  Speaker 1: that you don't think is getting enough attention that with tailwinds,
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  Speaker 1: with good candidates, with, you know, certain dynamics out there,
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  Speaker 1: we should be paying more attention to?
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  Speaker 4: Well, it's really interesting. And, you know, I was very
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  Speaker 4: involved in 2006 as well. And, you know, it was
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  Speaker 4: it was wild on election night that there were Democrats
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  Speaker 4: who won. That weren't on anybody's radar screen that the
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  Speaker 4: DCCC hadn't even spent money to support. I think that's
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  Speaker 4: not going to be the case in the House this year.
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  Speaker 4: I think the case in the Senate, Jen, is so,
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  Speaker 4: you know, when you think about a presidential race and
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  Speaker 4: getting to 270 electoral votes, you always want to have
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  Speaker 4: multiple pathways to get there. You don't want to be
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  Speaker 4: reliant on winning one state or two. I think the
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  Speaker 4: same thing is true in the Senate. And the good
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  Speaker 4: news for Democrats is we have a lot of states
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  Speaker 4: in place. So, yeah, I think we definitely, you know,
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  Speaker 4: Maine's key. You've got to win Maine. Iowa and Ohio both.
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  Speaker 4: I think at the beginning of the cycle, you said, well,
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  Speaker 4: they're going to be real stretches. We have a possibility
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  Speaker 4: to win one, maybe both. I think races like Kansas,
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  Speaker 4: like Nebraska, like Alaska, maybe even Mississippi, we're not going
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  Speaker 4: to win all of them. But boy, you take a
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  Speaker 4: lot of shots on goal and you're going to have
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  Speaker 4: more of the pucks reach the net. And that's where
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  Speaker 4: we're at right now. So I think it's going to
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  Speaker 4: be really important, though, I would say, Jen, in Texas, Iowa,
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  Speaker 4: and Ohio. So those aren't those outer reach states I
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  Speaker 4: just mentioned, but they have been red states, sadly, for
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  Speaker 4: over a decade. And if they hold in there, And
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  Speaker 4: polling has its limitations. But if it looks like those
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  Speaker 4: races in mid-October look like they do today, because historically
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  Speaker 4: what you'll see is you might see Republicans come back
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  Speaker 4: home a little bit more in states like that. And
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  Speaker 4: if we still see this kind of margin and we're
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  Speaker 4: hearing from the campaigns that they like what they're seeing
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  Speaker 4: in their internal data, I think that would be really,
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  Speaker 4: really important. Because, again, I always remind people we can
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  Speaker 4: get excited in a red state when there's a poll
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  Speaker 4: that shows a Democrat 47-42. that's 89% of the vote.
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  Speaker 4: What's the 11 other percent going to do? And usually
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  Speaker 4: in red states for us, and the same thing is
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  Speaker 4: true in blue states for Republicans, you know, you're not
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  Speaker 4: going to get most of that. Most of that's going
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  Speaker 4: to go to the party that's more comfortably, you know,
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  Speaker 4: situated in those states. So that's the other thing I
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  Speaker 4: look at in all these Senate races, particularly stretch races.
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  Speaker 4: Do we look consistently our candidates at 49, 50.
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  Speaker 3: 51, 52?
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  Speaker 4: That's incredibly important in tough terrain that you're trying to win.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, you just reminded me. It's also important.
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  Speaker 1: And every time I talk to any of these candidates
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  Speaker 1: in red states, they always say this to me privately
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  Speaker 1: and sometimes on TV.
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  Speaker 2: They know people will come home.
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  Speaker 1: James Tallarico, John Ossoff, Sherrod Brown, they know Republicans are
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  Speaker 1: going to come home and that it's going to narrow.
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  Speaker 1: So nobody can freak out when that happens, too. It's
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  Speaker 1: just about getting more votes always. David Plouffe, I could
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  Speaker 1: talk to you all day. We're going to talk to
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: you in the Klobuchar, though. So I'm so grateful you
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  Speaker 1: were here. Thanks again for taking the time.