Latest / The Retail Podcast / How to Start Planning for January 2024, US Retail Trends Black Friday & Cyber Monday
Transcript
- 0:00Hello and good evening, good morning, good afternoon.
- 0:03Wherever you are in the world, we'll looking at the results
- 0:06from Black Friday and Cyber Monday specifically in the US
- 0:10Let me bring on Joe Shasteen from retail next who's going to
- 0:15be taking us through the data points.
- 0:19Joe, good morning. Hi, Alex.
- 0:21Good afternoon. And how are you doing?
- 0:24I'm doing great. Thank you so much for having me
- 0:26join you today. Yeah, My, my pleasure.
- 0:29Sorry, I said good morning. You said good afternoon.
- 0:31It is this morning for you. No, good morning.
- 0:34For me, but good afternoon for you, right.
- 0:36So, yeah. Yeah.
- 0:37I don't know. Good evening.
- 0:38Right? Depends on how you look at it.
- 0:40It's dark. The sun has disappeared.
- 0:43I don't know what time. Just just out of curiosity, what
- 0:46time does it get dark in San Jose?
- 0:49It's about, you know, well, San Jose maybe about 535 o'clock,
- 0:52you know, OK, yeah, not. Too bad.
- 0:54Yeah. Yeah, I know in the UK it's like
- 0:56at 3IN in mature, that's about 5:00.
- 0:59So. But anyway, listen Joe, I know
- 1:01you've had an incredibly busy week.
- 1:03You've been talking about the findings from your data.
- 1:07So if you don't mind, for those who don't know retail next and I
- 1:10know you guys have been around for a very long time and have an
- 1:13impressive list, customer base list.
- 1:16Can you just give us a sort of a one minute on retail next, the
- 1:20data set that we're going to look at in terms of Black
- 1:23Friday, Cyber Monday and projecting that forward and then
- 1:27we'll just get straight into the data?
- 1:29Yeah. So retail Next is a technology
- 1:32platform that aims to bring e-commerce style shopper
- 1:35analytics to brick and mortar stores.
- 1:37So we primarily will focus on putting a camera at the entrance
- 1:42to a store just to understand how many people are entering in
- 1:45and out of that location. And for the most part when we're
- 1:48discussing the data that I'm going to be showing in the in
- 1:51the PowerPoint that I will share, all of the data is
- 1:53generated from just one single camera at the front of a store,
- 1:57just tracking people as they enter and as they leave,
- 1:59generating a traffic in and a traffic out count.
- 2:02And that is the data that we are analyzing the metrics that we
- 2:05are using in this report to would require the storage to
- 2:08have been open for a whole year so that we can get that nice
- 2:11comp picture of how the store performed last year during Black
- 2:13Friday, how the store was performing this year and our,
- 2:16you know what can we see from a trend perspective.
- 2:19One other thing to note with the data that I'm sharing here today
- 2:22is that we do scale this to be more be a more representative of
- 2:28the overall US retail market. We however, we do not include
- 2:31grocers and we do not include gasoline or sort of gas station
- 2:34purchases in these metrics is primarily focused on specialty
- 2:38retail as well as maybe some of the you know, department store
- 2:41retailers as well. But yeah, that that's kind of
- 2:44the data that we have retail. Next we'll also be able to
- 2:47provide information around in store shopper behavior.
- 2:50That's not the data that I'm going to get into today, but
- 2:52that is another big focus of what we can do is provide those
- 2:55e-commerce style analytics for interior shopping.
- 2:58So how many people are dwelling? How long are they dwelling?
- 3:00You know, all of that sort of information around what people
- 3:03are doing when they come in the store.
- 3:05And I think more or less it's around 5000 data, 5000 stores
- 3:10roughly, right, I don't think. Yeah, In that range, yeah,
- 3:12there's a lot. It changes.
- 3:15It's changing all the time. I got you.
- 3:18OK, well, listen, I'm. I'm super excited.
- 3:20I I love data. I love.
- 3:23I know why I said this. You off camera.
- 3:24I love the fact that you're in Milton Keynes and in Madrid, my
- 3:27two favorite place. It's it's no, it will go Milton
- 3:30Keynes. Concrete cows, roundabouts.
- 3:32But anyway, let's dive into the data.
- 3:35Great, OK, perfect. So just to kind of set the
- 3:38stage, we've got an initial view into you know what we've been
- 3:41seeing kind of trend wise going back into the summer of you know
- 3:442023. So I think generally speaking
- 3:47what we were seeing through summer and most of you know
- 3:49early fall or end of summer is kind of year over year decline
- 3:53compared to 2022 in that you know 1 to 2% range throughout
- 3:57most of the summer. We didn't see a nice, you know,
- 3:58uptake during that 4th of July week with some comp dates.
- 4:01But again for the most Part 1 to 2% decline was what we were
- 4:04seeing leading up to the fall. Then once we started getting to
- 4:08fall maybe a little bit more of the back to school season, we're
- 4:11starting to see a little bit more of a decline in that 3 to
- 4:134% range leading up to November. Now what we know leading up to
- 4:17that week of Black Friday and then Black Friday itself is that
- 4:20there is usually a positive uptick in traffic trends you
- 4:24know compared to maybe November Week 2 or even November Week 3
- 4:27in this case and that's exactly what we ended up seeing.
- 4:30So our overall numbers for November week four were you know
- 4:33as positive. They've been in you know the
- 4:35last four or five months that only about a decline about 0.5%
- 4:39for the whole week of November. But on an even more positive
- 4:43note what we were seeing was that we actually look drill into
- 4:45the individual days leading up to Black Friday as well as the
- 4:49weekend for Black Friday itself. We saw very positive metrics.
- 4:52So thinking is a very small sample size.
- 4:55So we can disregard that metric, but if we look at just Saturday
- 4:59or Black Friday itself on November 24th, we're plus 2% for
- 5:02traffic and then we carried on that kind of positive trend for
- 5:06Saturday and Sunday as well at about a + 1 year over year, so.
- 5:10Cynthia, just just quickly, is that are you is that a
- 5:13translation that from looking at the, the, the previous data set
- 5:16that people are actually because I keep hearing that Christmas
- 5:21and and and shopping is happening earlier in the year,
- 5:24you know, so people are. So when when you looked at the
- 5:26the slide it it it's sort of there was a massive downward
- 5:30slide leading up to. So people were like purposely
- 5:34holding back, holding black, holding back because in the UK
- 5:37there's been a lot of complaints or I've listened to some some
- 5:41analysis and analysis on the fact that everyone just threw
- 5:45their offers from like the beginning of November to try and
- 5:48get people to come in. But looking at your data, it's
- 5:51also sort of actually validates what what's happening that there
- 5:55is a is that right? Am I reading that right?
- 5:57What, Yeah. So from what I, what I had seen
- 5:59right when I was doing research more on the the US side of
- 6:02things, a lot of the expectations were, you know
- 6:04we've been seeing kind of softer trends leading up to Black
- 6:07Friday. You know, inflation was still
- 6:08not great for customers. A lot of concerns around 2 of
- 6:11are the Black Friday Deals worth it?
- 6:13You know, can you get those earlier, can you get them later,
- 6:16do you need to go out and shop on Black Friday?
- 6:17So a lot of questions there that I think was your tempering my
- 6:20expectation. And I think you know when I was
- 6:22asked, I was expecting Black Friday itself to be maybe flat
- 6:26to slightly negative. So it exceeded my expectations.
- 6:29When I saw that based on the perceptions, you know, kind of
- 6:31what we've been hearing of those deals shifting forward, I think
- 6:33I saw some research too that in the US there the, the discounts
- 6:38were at their highest rate that they've been in years for
- 6:40October. So the discounts were getting
- 6:42pushed earlier in October. But again, what it ended up
- 6:44seeing, what we ended up seeing from our metrics is that on
- 6:47Black Friday itself, you know, people still went out.
- 6:50It still seems like it's an event, right.
- 6:52So last year for Black Friday we were plus 7 compared to 2021 and
- 6:56then this year we're +2 compared to 2022.
- 6:59So we're still seeing increased growth you know even compared to
- 7:02two years ago 2021, now 2019 and pre COVID is a bit of a
- 7:06different story there as we're still you know not fully
- 7:09recovered from where we were pre Pandemic.
- 7:10But I think you know some of the patterns have just completely
- 7:13shifted the you know shopping dynamic post Pandemic era.
- 7:16So we might never reach that level.
- 7:18But again we're seeing you know one stronger performances than
- 7:20we initially had expected to see, you know based on your
- 7:23perceptions and some of the surveys that we had been getting
- 7:25from customers as well. Fantastic.
- 7:28Brilliant. I interrupted your phone.
- 7:30Sorry. No problem.
- 7:32Yeah. So I think the main takeaways
- 7:34here was very positive Black Friday in the US and I think
- 7:37really specifically what we wanted to call out was the
- 7:39really strong performance in the health and beauty category.
- 7:42Now this might not necessarily be much of a surprise.
- 7:45We do tend to see health and beauty performed very well
- 7:49around this time of the year, you know kind of getting ready
- 7:51for holiday, getting ready with some of those gifting purchases,
- 7:54right. So that was really, really
- 7:55strong performance. But you know I think just to
- 7:57kind of see that pretty much double digit growth over the
- 8:00weekend year over year, you know was really, really positive to
- 8:04see for health and beauty. You know I think we had some
- 8:06perceptions that this might occur.
- 8:07You know, I think luxury segment is still doing great for those
- 8:11people who you know can afford luxury, right.
- 8:13They're not really changing their habits too much.
- 8:16But maybe those people who are on the border of maybe wanting
- 8:19to purchase luxury, those people maybe seem to shift a little bit
- 8:22lower into, you know, maybe more premium cosmetics or you know,
- 8:26maybe the health and beauty space as opposed to maybe, you
- 8:28know, the luxury apparel, the luxury accessories and those
- 8:31sorts of sorts of items. So that was something that that
- 8:34we definitely noticed was that you know that health and beauty
- 8:37category especially kind of the premium health and beauty was
- 8:40doing very well. We saw smaller growth in the
- 8:42luxury segment as well and we saw you know also too in the
- 8:46jewelry category was another category I want to call out.
- 8:48We saw really strong growth in jewelry.
- 8:51One of that some of the growth was due to luxury, but really a
- 8:55lot of the growth in the jewelry category was really from the low
- 8:58kind of costume jewelry kind of price points.
- 9:00That's where we're really seeing a lot of, a lot of growth in
- 9:03that in that segment. Understood.
- 9:08And then just the one final point I wanted to bring up with
- 9:11kind of preparing for a holiday in what we're seeing.
- 9:14So we got a metric from 2022. So we basically look back at our
- 9:19holiday trends and we look back at 2021 as well.
- 9:22And they're all very similar. But what we noticed is we took,
- 9:26we set the average traffic during this holiday time period,
- 9:29so basically November to December, that whole 2 month
- 9:32period. We're considering the holiday
- 9:33shopping time period and we set the average traffic to 1.
- 9:37So that was just your average traffic over that time period
- 9:39equal to 1:00. And then we looked at what is
- 9:41it, what are the kind of tea shopping dates, you know, Black
- 9:44Friday, that whole weekend, then Super Saturday, the other
- 9:47Saturday and then the kind of last, you know, 9-10 days
- 9:49leading up to Christmas. What does that traffic look like
- 9:53compared to the average day? And what we're seeing is that
- 9:55Black Friday, as you might expect, has by far the most
- 9:58traffic, you know, about 2.6 times the amount of traffic that
- 10:02you're getting on a regular kind of holiday shopping day.
- 10:05You're getting 2.6, that amount on Black Friday now leading up
- 10:10to Christmas time, right. That is where you're starting to
- 10:12see still really strong performance, you know, almost
- 10:141.82 X the amount of average holiday traffic.
- 10:18But it's not quite at the same level as Black Friday.
- 10:20I like to say that, you know, leading up to Christmas, you get
- 10:23a Black Friday basically every two days.
- 10:25So Black Friday traffic every two days during the Christmas
- 10:29ramp up period, that last 10 day period is equivalent to the
- 10:31traffic that you're getting in the black right here.
- 10:33So you know just something to keep in mind that you know we're
- 10:36still going to have our most valuable days for retailers are
- 10:39coming up that last you know 10 days before Christmas.
- 10:42Really strong drivers for traffic, really strong drivers
- 10:45for sales. So it's really important just to
- 10:47kind of you know, take some learnings from you know,
- 10:49whatever we're seeing from traffic on Thanksgiving, you
- 10:51know, in what were your trends looking like from an hourly
- 10:53perspective. And you know, and just making
- 10:55sure that we're ready during the holiday time period from a labor
- 10:58perspective, from coaching up the labor to understand where
- 11:01those associates are going, where they can interact with
- 11:04customers on the floor plan to really try to drive that
- 11:06conversion as we're going to start to get that more valuable
- 11:09traffic in the store, you know, when there's much more urgency
- 11:12to make those purchases. So how does that breakdown in
- 11:16terms of from your experience as you move because obviously the
- 11:20the next big shopping event are the sales that in the UK
- 11:24literally start the day after Christmas, Boxing Day they call
- 11:28it. In Europe they have the King's
- 11:30Day or it's like the 7th or 8th of January in the US When, when,
- 11:36when is that sales? And I guess that's what you're
- 11:38saying here as we come out of Christmas into that festive
- 11:42sales period, there's you're expecting the traffic to solve,
- 11:46keep going and retailers should be briefing their store
- 11:50associates in that way. Yeah, so.
- 11:51From my, my perspective, I think you know we're going to see a
- 11:54downturn, you know, over the net, not a downturn, but
- 11:56traffic's going to slow. It's still going to be strong,
- 11:59but it's not going to be what you're going to see in those
- 12:01last, you know, two weeks leading or last week or two
- 12:04leading up to Christmas. That's where you're going to get
- 12:07your high traffic and you're really high valuable or you
- 12:10know, highly valued customers in there because there's going to
- 12:12be a lot more urgency to make that purchase.
- 12:15You know what? We literally.
- 12:15In the next two weeks? Really.
- 12:18Yes. Yeah.
- 12:19So I would say probably starting around, you know this about two
- 12:22Saturdays out from Christmas and then we've got a little bit of a
- 12:24kind of a on Christmas this year and that you know I think
- 12:27Christmas last year was on a Sunday, this year I think it's
- 12:29going to be on on a Monday. So it's going to be about two
- 12:31Saturdays out from Christmas is really when you start to see
- 12:34that stronger growth. And you know in this case we had
- 12:36a 1.8 times traffic day on that two Saturdays out and then right
- 12:41before, you know the 12:23 on that Friday, we had about a 2.0
- 12:46X traffic. So a little bit lower because
- 12:48you had Christmas Eve kind of driving down that Saturday
- 12:51trend. But this year, I think it'll be
- 12:52interesting with that Christmas Eve on Sunday, how is that
- 12:55driving? And you'll have the full and
- 12:57you'll have a full Saturday for for shopping right before
- 13:01Christmas that. Day Understood.
- 13:03OK, that's fantastic. I mean so much to unpack and I
- 13:09guess that the other thing that retailers or folks that work in
- 13:12retail or sell to retailers are thinking about our our NRF you
- 13:16know looking at what, what, what, what's that all about,
- 13:21what are they, what should they be focused on?
- 13:24You you you're going to be there, you're going to be
- 13:26talking what what do you, what's your focus this year on NRF?
- 13:30Yeah. So I'll be doing a few few
- 13:32things that are up. So one of them will be talking
- 13:33about our traffic data. I think we are also kind of in
- 13:36the early stages but we are planning to expand our our kind
- 13:39of benchmarking data. So this data is based on the US
- 13:42but we are in the process of expanding, providing
- 13:44benchmarking data on more of the the UK, the EU and the Middle
- 13:48East as well. So you know hopefully during
- 13:51that time, I don't, I don't want to promise yet, but we are you
- 13:53know planning to kind of discuss some of the traffic trends that
- 13:55we're seeing in those regions, do a little bit more with the US
- 13:58as well with what we've been seeing kind of a post you know
- 14:00holiday recap will be in January at that time be able to recap
- 14:03the Christmas confested period, you know provide some details
- 14:07there and then I'll also be providing some more information
- 14:10kind of around the work that I do with our retail lab.
- 14:12So that was where I kind of mentioned at the beginning of
- 14:14the call. We do also do and the majority
- 14:16of the work that I do is actually in retail lab.
- 14:18We'll put multiple sensors kind of all throughout the store to
- 14:22provide those e-commerce style analytics, not just at the door,
- 14:26you know entry point to the store, but as users are
- 14:28shopping, as they're moving throughout something you can
- 14:30really understand more about the shopper path.
- 14:32So you know, one of the sessions that I'll be talking about will
- 14:35be highlighting some of the work that I've been doing with one of
- 14:37our customers on that side of things as well.
- 14:40Making the invisible visible, right?
- 14:43Exactly. Yeah, exactly.
- 14:45I. Agree.
- 14:46That's an interesting thing because that's like something
- 14:47I've been, you know, my whole career has been in creating or
- 14:52transparency in the path to purchase and understanding
- 14:55people shopping missions. I'm just curious, is there, are
- 14:58there any snippets that you can share with us in terms of things
- 15:02that surprised you by that? Because obviously I always get
- 15:05surprised myself when predict, but I was just wondering is
- 15:07there anything that surprised you when you were doing that?
- 15:10Yeah. I mean, well, I mean, there's
- 15:11been so many projects. I think for the most part, what
- 15:13I would say is I'm sometimes surprised by the unique nature
- 15:16of a lot of the retail stores, right?
- 15:18Like you think there might be something, there's definitely
- 15:21takeaways that you can make. But typically every product that
- 15:24we work on, the store, the layout being very different and
- 15:27unique, there's always different kinds of findings and different
- 15:29trends and different ways that you can drive shopper movement
- 15:33through the way that the store is laid out, right.
- 15:35So some of that can be bad, right?
- 15:36If it's too blocked or there's too much congestion, there's not
- 15:39enough flow to get to certain parts of the store.
- 15:41So, you know, we can provide metrics to customers letting
- 15:44them know, you know, what does abandonment rate look like?
- 15:46How many people are coming in the store and leaving you know
- 15:48before actually engaging with the product.
- 15:50You know we can have different methodologies for doing that.
- 15:53But you know we can also provide details on you know what
- 15:55proportion of customers make it to certain areas of the store.
- 15:58So let you know where they kind of peeling off on that funnel
- 16:01where you potentially losing that conversion rate.
- 16:03And I would say you know for the most part that's that's kind of
- 16:06what I find is you know all these retailers are very unique,
- 16:10very different kind of paths to purchase, very different shopper
- 16:12journey. And I think that's what makes it
- 16:14so exciting to really kind of dive in and try to you know find
- 16:17those different tests that we can run those EB tests.
- 16:19I mean that's really the, the key factor of our platform is it
- 16:23really for those test and learn labs, right, where you're
- 16:26testing out a new fixture, you know, maybe one style of you
- 16:29know, putting the product folded versus one style maybe hanging
- 16:32it on the rack, testing out, how is that driving, you know, dwell
- 16:35behavior or traffic behavior or people just not seeing it,
- 16:38right. And then you can tie that to
- 16:40your sales metrics and understand, you know, not only
- 16:43that kind of lagging indicator did someone buy, but where did
- 16:46we maybe lose them on the funnel, right?
- 16:48Did we, did they even get them for the product?
- 16:50Do they even know that it exists, right.
- 16:52And if not, then maybe you need to move it to a place where
- 16:54there's more traffic, where people will see it or maybe
- 16:57there is in a great spot for traffic, but it's in an area of
- 17:00like a major thoroughfare and people don't want to stop and
- 17:02shop that. So you need to provide to give
- 17:04them you know a little bit more ability to kind of you know
- 17:08interact with the product and not be getting bumped into by
- 17:11customers that are moving through.
- 17:12There's so much kind of data that you can get through
- 17:14understanding customer flow and overall dwell and you know
- 17:17traffic to different areas of the store and you know working
- 17:20with the advanced analytics team of retail.
- 17:22Next, we can provide all other sort of custom metrics around,
- 17:25you know, how shoppers are are, you know, behaving in store and
- 17:28what they're engaging with and what they're not engaging.
- 17:31With, yeah, I mean it always surprises me how much retailers
- 17:35leave on the table in the failure of conversion upsell and
- 17:39cross sell because it's just like left to a a a dark art
- 17:43based on some POS data that they've got historically that
- 17:46says if they buy this, they'll buy that as opposed to physical
- 17:50data from what's happening in in the path to purchase or in that
- 17:55so, so. That's a great point.
- 17:57Just to jump on that. I mean that's a great point and
- 17:59that's kind of what we can also provide you know, with like
- 18:02adjacencies, right. So we can understand, you know
- 18:05this in the online space, right. If someone clicks on one link
- 18:08for one product and they click on another one for you know that
- 18:10they, you know, there's overlap there.
- 18:12Well, we can get to that with our data, right.
- 18:15We know that someone shop picture A and then we know that,
- 18:17OK, they skip picture B and picture C and like the fixture D
- 18:21So we can provide details on maybe what are some of those
- 18:24overlaps where maybe you don't see that in the sales data
- 18:27because maybe for some reason they're not converting.
- 18:29So you're not seeing that in their basket, but we're able to
- 18:31provide a little bit more of a perspective again on that kind
- 18:34of higher level of the funnel of where were those opportunities
- 18:37that might have been lost. And you know it even goes back
- 18:40to you know higher level data for for traffic and you know
- 18:43just conversion at the store is you can use this, this kind of
- 18:46data to compare your different stores if you just have sales
- 18:49data. And this kind of going back to
- 18:50your point about what surprises me most.
- 18:52I think one thing that I've seen is that really kind of drilled
- 18:54into like looking with some of our customers for segmenting out
- 18:57their stores and kind of clustering them because it
- 18:59oftentimes you'll think stores before are very similar because
- 19:02they have very similar, you know daily average sales or you know
- 19:05whatever sort of sales metrics you're looking at.
- 19:07But when you look at the traffic level, it's very different and
- 19:11that shows what the true opportunity of a location is,
- 19:15right. And that can really help you
- 19:16understand, you know, is this, is this store actually
- 19:19performing well? Do I need to maybe consolidate
- 19:22locations? You know, do I need to expand
- 19:24locations, right. It can really just let you know.
- 19:26Overall, what is that opportunity that you really
- 19:28don't have insight into unless you understand how many people
- 19:31are actually coming into the door or, you know, coming into
- 19:34the store through your door? Oh, absolutely.
- 19:37I mean look, there's been so many probably they're probably
- 19:40off record conversations where retailers admit that they've got
- 19:44this flagship store that already converts of the 10,000 people
- 19:48that have walked through the door something like 1% whereas
- 19:51their High Street branch that is under invested in, under you
- 19:55know utilized is converting a higher percentage of of traffic.
- 20:01So listen, Joe, as you can tell, I can carry on.
- 20:04It's a subject that I love in terms of dissecting why people
- 20:10do what and and what is happening.
- 20:13If people want to find out more about your research or what
- 20:16retail next they're up to, where should they go?
- 20:20Yes. So you can go to our website
- 20:21Retail Next, just Google for Retail Next will pop up.
- 20:25We also have some dashboards that are made available to us
- 20:28that include the data that I've shown here.
- 20:31So for our customers, we make them available.
- 20:33We do also make that available for some media as well.
- 20:36So you know that would be the best way.
- 20:37Just research retail next and then you know reach out to
- 20:41myself, you know my e-mail is justjoe.chastinaretailnext.net.
- 20:44Happy to address any other questions or forward those along
- 20:47to anybody else at the at our organization that can help with
- 20:50that. That's fantastic, Gerald.
- 20:52Look forward to seeing you at NRF, hopefully in a bar some
- 20:55way. Have a wonderful rest of your
- 20:58day. Thank you.
- 21:00Cheers. Bye.