Latest / Satellite image deep learning / IceCloudNet and the PhD Journey
Transcript
- 0:05Hello,
- 0:05I'm Robin Cole,
- 0:06and welcome to the Satellite Image Deep Learning Podcast.
- 0:09SPEAKER_00: In this episode,
- 0:10I caught up with Kai Jegel to discuss his experience pursuing a
- 0:13PhD at the
- 0:14SPEAKER_00: intersection of machine learning and remote sensing.
- 0:17SPEAKER_00: We discussed his work on ICE CloudNet,
- 0:19a deep learning model that reconstructs 3D cloud structures
- 0:22from 2D imagery with
- 0:24SPEAKER_00: sparse depth measurements.
- 0:26SPEAKER_00: Data fusion and sparse machine learning are fascinating topics.
- 0:29SPEAKER_00: I learned a lot from this conversation, and I hope you do too.
- 0:32SPEAKER_00: If you're watching this on YouTube,
- 0:34please consider liking the video and subscribing to the channel
- 0:37as this really
- 0:37SPEAKER_00: helps to reach a wider audience.
- 0:39SPEAKER_00: Thank you.
- 0:40SPEAKER_00: Hi Kai, welcome to the podcast.
- 0:42SPEAKER_00: Hi Rob, thanks for having me today.
- 0:44SPEAKER_00: Looking forward to this conversation.
- 0:46SPEAKER_00: So today,
- 0:47SPEAKER_00: two-parter,
- 0:48so we're going to begin by talking about your career history
- 0:50and then move on to
- 0:51SPEAKER_00: your research.
- 0:53SPEAKER_00: Over to you for the history.
- 0:55SPEAKER_00: Thanks.
- 0:55SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so I give a bit of intro about my background.
- 1:01SPEAKER_01: So I've been in the kind of ML space for some years.
- 1:07SPEAKER_01: I worked,
- 1:08SPEAKER_01: like after my studies,
- 1:09SPEAKER_01: I worked in an ML ops startup as a software engineer,
- 1:13SPEAKER_01: but then was interested or motivated to apply the
- 1:18machine learning skills and techniques to more pressing questions,
- 1:24let's say,
- 1:24of our time.
- 1:25SPEAKER_01: So I was looking specifically to work on climate issues,
- 1:29SPEAKER_01: to tackle climate change with machine learning.
- 1:32SPEAKER_01: And then by a few coincidences,
- 1:34SPEAKER_01: I ended up in the Atmospheric Physics Lab at ETH in Zurich,
- 1:40SPEAKER_01: a group that works on,
- 1:44SPEAKER_01: tries to understand cloud processes
- 1:48SPEAKER_01: and climate modelling, etc.
- 1:50And clouds in general are one of the big uncertainties that are
- 1:53remaining in
- 1:54SPEAKER_01: climate modelling and also future climate projections.
- 1:57SPEAKER_01: So it's a topic that everyone is aware of,
- 2:00SPEAKER_01: but in the community,
- 2:02SPEAKER_01: it's quite a vibrant area of research and quite important as well.
- 2:08SPEAKER_00: So was that direction,
- 2:10was it based on your previous studies or just something totally
- 2:13new you wanted to
- 2:14SPEAKER_00: go into?
- 2:16SPEAKER_01: It's really completely new.
- 2:18SPEAKER_01: Before starting the PhD,
- 2:19I didn't even know that this kind of cloud topic was something
- 2:25that was actually important,
- 2:27SPEAKER_01: or I didn't know anything about microphysics and so on.
- 2:32I was mainly looking for PhD positions in this intersection of
- 2:38machine learning and
- 2:41SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and climate research.
- 2:43SPEAKER_01: And then I saw this call for applications and then I applied to it.
- 2:51SPEAKER_01: And it was also a pretty steep learning curve,
- 2:55SPEAKER_01: I have to admit,
- 2:56SPEAKER_01: like teaching atmospheric physics classes and so on as a TA,
- 3:03SPEAKER_01: knowledge was quite intense.
- 3:05SPEAKER_00: Okay.
- 3:06SPEAKER_00: So teaching was a significant part of the PhD program.
- 3:10SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 3:11SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 3:12SPEAKER_01: I mean, the first years for sure took up quite some time.
- 3:18Significant,
- 3:18I would say like 20 to maybe 30% of the time in the beginning.
- 3:22SPEAKER_01: And then in the later years, it was a bit less intense.
- 3:25SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 3:26And did you find your experience having worked in industry for
- 3:29some time as a
- 3:30SPEAKER_00: software engineer,
- 3:31SPEAKER_00: was that applicable?
- 3:32SPEAKER_00: Was it something that assisted you?
- 3:34SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
- 3:35SPEAKER_01: I mean,
- 3:35SPEAKER_01: of course,
- 3:35SPEAKER_01: there's a lot of coding involved and a lot of Python,
- 3:40SPEAKER_01: of course,
- 3:41SPEAKER_01: in data science machine learning.
- 3:44SPEAKER_01: So definitely these skills helped me and were transferable.
- 3:49SPEAKER_01: Being in a group of physicists,
- 3:51I think I could also help my colleagues sometimes with kind of
- 3:56my more technical skills.
- 3:58SPEAKER_01: So I think it was also a good symbiosis.
- 4:01SPEAKER_01: And yeah,
- 4:01I think it's just nice also to change a bit environments and
- 4:06around yourself with
- 4:07SPEAKER_01: people with different backgrounds.
- 4:08SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 4:09SPEAKER_00: And obviously when you do a PhD,
- 4:10SPEAKER_00: there's a lot of responsibility on you to set the directions,
- 4:13SPEAKER_00: set the objectives.
- 4:15SPEAKER_00: How did you find that having, you know, worked in industry?
- 4:19SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 4:20SPEAKER_01: I mean,
- 4:20SPEAKER_01: since I was a bit out,
- 4:22SPEAKER_01: like,
- 4:23SPEAKER_01: let's say,
- 4:24SPEAKER_01: like a new joiner to the field of atmospheric physics,
- 4:28SPEAKER_01: it took me some time to also understand,
- 4:30SPEAKER_01: like,
- 4:30SPEAKER_01: what is kind of the current state of the research,
- 4:33SPEAKER_01: what are actually interesting problems to work on?
- 4:37SPEAKER_01: I think I always came with the glasses,
- 4:38SPEAKER_01: okay,
- 4:39where can we use machine learning and data science to improve
- 4:45the status quo and
- 4:47just come a bit of a different angle than maybe other people in
- 4:52the group.
- 4:53SPEAKER_01: I think that helped a lot,
- 4:55just looking for inefficiencies and where can we automate
- 4:58things and so on.
- 4:59SPEAKER_00: Right.
- 4:59SPEAKER_00: Well, that's a great place to start talking about what you did then.
- 5:03SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 5:04Yeah,
- 5:05so I would like to talk about one project that I did towards
- 5:10the end of my PhD.
- 5:11SPEAKER_01: It's called Ice Cloud Net.
- 5:14SPEAKER_01: And as the name suggests, it focuses on clouds that consist of only ice.
- 5:21SPEAKER_01: So these are cirrus clouds, we call them in the jargon.
- 5:26SPEAKER_01: And they exist very high up in the atmosphere.
- 5:29SPEAKER_01: You all have seen them probably once.
- 5:33these are these feathery thin clouds up high up in the sky and
- 5:37those are yeah i
- 5:39would say specifically not so well understood yet so there are
- 5:44many microphysical
- 5:45processes and so on that are acting there and also one reason
- 5:52why it's hard to
- 5:52SPEAKER_01: study them is that there's not a good observational basis so it's uh um
- 6:00SPEAKER_01: On the one hand, it's difficult to get actual samples from there.
- 6:03So there are some campaigns that fly with airplanes into these
- 6:06clouds and measure
- 6:08SPEAKER_01: kind of the properties there.
- 6:10SPEAKER_01: But it's quite expensive and quite difficult.
- 6:13And also,
- 6:13yeah,
- 6:15it's much more demanding than for lower clouds,
- 6:18let's say.
- 6:20SPEAKER_01: And on the other hand,
- 6:21SPEAKER_01: there exist satellite data sets,
- 6:24SPEAKER_01: which I guess the audience is more interested in.
- 6:29SPEAKER_01: And,
- 6:31SPEAKER_01: There,
- 6:32SPEAKER_01: also,
- 6:32SPEAKER_01: we have the issue that on the one hand side,
- 6:35SPEAKER_01: we have passive satellites,
- 6:38SPEAKER_01: for example,
- 6:38SPEAKER_01: like Siviri,
- 6:39SPEAKER_01: which is a geostationary satellite,
- 6:41SPEAKER_01: or MODIS,
- 6:43SPEAKER_01: that just take 2D images,
- 6:45SPEAKER_01: let's say,
- 6:46SPEAKER_01: in different wavelengths,
- 6:47SPEAKER_01: like infrared,
- 6:48SPEAKER_01: but also visual.
- 6:50SPEAKER_01: And you get nice overview of the cloud dynamics,
- 6:54SPEAKER_01: because you get in,
- 6:55SPEAKER_01: for Siviri,
- 6:56SPEAKER_01: for example,
- 6:56SPEAKER_01: every 15 minutes,
- 6:58SPEAKER_01: you have an observation.
- 7:01SPEAKER_01: But the big problem is that you only have this top-down view,
- 7:05so you don't really get in or not much information about the
- 7:09structure of the cloud,
- 7:10SPEAKER_01: the cloud top height,
- 7:12SPEAKER_01: etc.
- 7:14SPEAKER_01: But if you also just look up in the sky,
- 7:17SPEAKER_01: the clouds are like a 3D dynamical system that's always evolving.
- 7:22SPEAKER_01: So it's quite important to also understand the vertical structure.
- 7:28SPEAKER_01: Right.
- 7:29SPEAKER_00: So not well understood.
- 7:30SPEAKER_00: Hard to get data on.
- 7:33SPEAKER_00: Exactly.
- 7:33Real data sources from above 2D,
- 7:35but we really care about the 3D structure.
- 7:38SPEAKER_01: Exactly, exactly.
- 7:39SPEAKER_01: And this actually, they exist.
- 7:41SPEAKER_01: Luckily, there exists also 3D data from polar orbiting satellites.
- 7:46SPEAKER_01: So, for example, MODIS is also polar orbiting.
- 7:50And I think with this satellite,
- 7:52many people are familiar with,
- 7:53or Sentinel.
- 7:54SPEAKER_01: But there's also satellites that carry active instruments.
- 7:58So that really sent down a laser,
- 8:00like a LIDAR or radar,
- 8:02and based on the kind of...
- 8:05SPEAKER_01: the backscatter, we can make assumption about the cloud properties.
- 8:10SPEAKER_01: And with these data products, we get really nice vertical information.
- 8:17SPEAKER_01: The big problem, however, is that it's very sparse.
- 8:20SPEAKER_01: As you can imagine, it's polar orbiting.
- 8:22SPEAKER_01: So you get very thin kind of curtains of data.
- 8:25So the spatial coverage is super low and also the temporal
- 8:30coverage is super low.
- 8:31SPEAKER_01: So to get data from the same
- 8:34kind of point you are the same like latitude longitude it takes
- 8:3814 days and so yeah
- 8:41not really any so you can only do like stationary studies but
- 8:45not really any
- 8:46temporal evolution which is yeah that's always evolving so
- 8:51right to study the
- 8:52SPEAKER_01: temporal evolution
- 8:54SPEAKER_00: Right.
- 8:54So your objective is to use this limited 3D data to augment the
- 8:59available 2D data
- 9:00SPEAKER_00: and get a much more holistic view of the system.
- 9:03SPEAKER_01: Exactly.
- 9:04SPEAKER_01: So the goal is,
- 9:05and this is actually the data set that I was looking for
- 9:08throughout my PhD because
- 9:10SPEAKER_01: I did a lot of studies on kind of with these active instruments,
- 9:14SPEAKER_01: but always the main limitation was that you can only kind of study the
- 9:21SPEAKER_01: the cloud at one point in time,
- 9:23SPEAKER_01: but you miss kind of the temporal history,
- 9:25SPEAKER_01: which is so important.
- 9:27SPEAKER_01: And then in other studies,
- 9:28SPEAKER_01: I augmented it,
- 9:29SPEAKER_01: for example,
- 9:30with RFI free analysis data and calculate trajectories with the
- 9:34RFI free analysis data.
- 9:36SPEAKER_01: But then you always have the problem
- 9:38SPEAKER_01: that RFI resolution is super high.
- 9:41In the model itself,
- 9:43you have different parameterizations that have a lot of uncertainties.
- 9:46So there's always this problem that we didn't have this kind of
- 9:53temporarily resolved data cube.
- 9:55SPEAKER_01: And with IceCloudNet,
- 9:57we are trying to close this observational gap and really create
- 10:02a 3D cloud
- 10:04SPEAKER_01: structure data set
- 10:06SPEAKER_01: with the time dimension, so basically for the data set.
- 10:12SPEAKER_01: Maybe I can show quickly how the data looks like.
- 10:15So I'll explain it a bit because I understand some people are
- 10:18listening to this
- 10:19SPEAKER_01: only and not seeing the video.
- 10:22SPEAKER_01: So here on the left side,
- 10:24SPEAKER_01: you see one sample image from Severi,
- 10:28SPEAKER_01: so a geostationary satellite that,
- 10:31SPEAKER_01: yeah,
- 10:33SPEAKER_01: just gather data in different infrared wavelengths.
- 10:36Here we see the 10.8 micron wavelength,
- 10:39but we also have some visible channels.
- 10:42SPEAKER_01: And you get this kind of image every 15 minutes.
- 10:46And just to visualize how kind of the polar orbiting satellite
- 10:51is covering this,
- 10:52SPEAKER_01: is that for one full day,
- 10:54SPEAKER_01: so we get actually 96 images from the geostationary satellite.
- 11:00SPEAKER_01: You only have one single overpass over a tiny
- 11:03kind of area in the geostationary satellite from the polar
- 11:08orbiting satellite.
- 11:09SPEAKER_01: So really only cover a tiny, tiny bit.
- 11:12However,
- 11:12we get these really nice vertical profiles,
- 11:15which you can see on the right side.
- 11:17SPEAKER_01: So here we can see, yeah, that we really have this vertical resolution.
- 11:22SPEAKER_01: We see a kind of here, an anvil cloud, we have a convective core.
- 11:26SPEAKER_01: So you, you see this somewhere somewhere.
- 11:30storms so you have this convective high towering core also a
- 11:34lot in the tropics but
- 11:34we can observe it sometimes in europe too and then this anvil
- 11:38that kind of gets uh
- 11:39pressed when the uh when the cloud hits the the top of the
- 11:45troposphere this is a
- 11:47very typical kind of cloud structure um that um yeah it's also
- 11:52changing now due to
- 11:53climate change because the yeah the temperatures in the
- 11:56troposphere are changing so
- 11:58SPEAKER_01: this is yeah like an
- 12:00SPEAKER_01: let's say, a hot research topic.
- 12:03SPEAKER_01: And...
- 12:05SPEAKER_01: But by only having the snapshots,
- 12:07SPEAKER_01: it's hard to understand actually how these Android clouds evolve.
- 12:12SPEAKER_01: And now I'm just quickly showing,
- 12:16and maybe afterwards you can talk a bit about the technical
- 12:18details of Ice CloudNet
- 12:19SPEAKER_01: if that's interesting,
- 12:22SPEAKER_01: what kind of the outcome is.
- 12:24Now on the left side,
- 12:26you see kind of the input to our Ice CloudNet model,
- 12:28which is a 2D model.
- 12:31SPEAKER_01: Siviri satellite images.
- 12:33SPEAKER_01: I mean,
- 12:34SPEAKER_01: in the model,
- 12:34SPEAKER_01: we patch it up and so on,
- 12:35SPEAKER_01: but now it's just like a full 10 by 10 degree snapshot.
- 12:44And the right side,
- 12:45you can see the vertical structure that we create with IceCloud Net.
- 12:49SPEAKER_01: So you really have the 3D structures.
- 12:53You can see anvils and you can see the development of the
- 12:56clouds in 3D and through time.
- 13:00SPEAKER_01: And with this,
- 13:02we increased the availability of the vertical cloud information
- 13:07by a factor of a million.
- 13:10SPEAKER_01: And we open source this data set.
- 13:12And so now researchers can use it to do studies on mesostatic
- 13:18convective system evolution.
- 13:20SPEAKER_01: errors or cloud interactions and a lot more.
- 13:24SPEAKER_01: And yeah, so this is kind of the project in a nutshell.
- 13:29SPEAKER_00: Fantastic.
- 13:30SPEAKER_00: So the 10 by 6 is because you've gone from a 2D to a 3D volume, right?
- 13:37SPEAKER_01: Yeah, not only because the...
- 13:42The spaceship,
- 13:43also the horizontal cover of the active satellites is very sparse.
- 13:48SPEAKER_01: So you don't, so maybe I go back.
- 13:52SPEAKER_01: So you basically have like one overpass every 14 days,
- 13:57SPEAKER_01: let's say,
- 13:57SPEAKER_01: or in,
- 13:59SPEAKER_01: I mean,
- 13:59SPEAKER_01: they're then getting in parallel,
- 14:00SPEAKER_01: but let's say per day in this kind of,
- 14:03SPEAKER_01: um,
- 14:05SPEAKER_01: 10 by 10 degree patch, you only have one overpass per day.
- 14:10So kind of you have also kind of horizontally the coverage is
- 14:14very sparse.
- 14:15SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 14:16So the 10 by six is from that slice on the right to the
- 14:19volumetric over the full area.
- 14:21SPEAKER_00: Makes sense.
- 14:22SPEAKER_01: Exactly.
- 14:22SPEAKER_01: Exactly.
- 14:23SPEAKER_00: Okay.
- 14:24SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 14:25I'm immediately wondering if a similar technique can be used
- 14:27for like LIDAR and
- 14:28SPEAKER_00: tree high,
- 14:29SPEAKER_00: other places where you have these kind of
- 14:31Point measurements almost,
- 14:33but another view that you could combine with it.
- 14:36SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 14:37SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 14:37SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 14:38SPEAKER_01: I mean,
- 14:38this one was like one big challenge also in the project that
- 14:44you have only these
- 14:48SPEAKER_01: data for supervision.
- 14:50SPEAKER_01: So you only have the...
- 14:53SPEAKER_01: Yeah, the vertical profiles are very sparsely available.
- 14:56SPEAKER_01: And in the end, you want to create this whole 3D structure.
- 15:00SPEAKER_01: So it took quite a lot of experimenting with the model,
- 15:06with how we choose the patches and a lot of data engineering
- 15:10until we got to the current.
- 15:13SPEAKER_00: Good.
- 15:14SPEAKER_00: And this was just one project you did within your PhD,
- 15:17SPEAKER_00: or was this kind of the cumulative output?
- 15:21SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
- 15:21SPEAKER_01: no,
- 15:21this was like the final project that I did in my PhD and kind
- 15:25of the one that I'm
- 15:27most proud of because I always had this problem in my PhD that
- 15:33I was missed because
- 15:34kind of the overarching topic was using machine learning for
- 15:38serious clouds and
- 15:39SPEAKER_01: kind of
- 15:42SPEAKER_01: working on improving our understanding of that.
- 15:44And I always had the issue that I only had these active
- 15:47satellite instrument retrievals,
- 15:49SPEAKER_01: but then no kind of temporal resolution.
- 15:54And yeah,
- 15:54as I said before,
- 15:55then I was using a lot of ERA-5 data or model output.
- 16:00SPEAKER_01: So we did one study,
- 16:01SPEAKER_01: for example,
- 16:02also on explainable machine learning where we tried to predict
- 16:04kind of the
- 16:07the Cirrus Cloud properties based on ERA5 data and then try to
- 16:11understand which
- 16:13meteorological and aerosol variables have the most impact on
- 16:19the Cirrus Cloud
- 16:21SPEAKER_01: property observations in different conditions.
- 16:23SPEAKER_01: So that was another project.
- 16:25SPEAKER_01: But I think for this kind of like satellite,
- 16:28SPEAKER_01: merging different satellite views and so on,
- 16:33SPEAKER_01: this was this last project and
- 16:36SPEAKER_00: Fantastic.
- 16:37SPEAKER_00: Let's hear about the solution then.
- 16:38SPEAKER_00: How does this work?
- 16:41SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 16:42So basically,
- 16:46it's a deep learning model that takes as an input the CVRI
- 16:55images and a bit of...
- 16:57SPEAKER_01: static metadata, like the location, the season and so on.
- 17:03And then we predict kind of the vertical,
- 17:07we predict the full cube that we saw before.
- 17:12SPEAKER_01: But then we can only supervise the model on
- 17:17SPEAKER_01: kind of where we have the data actually.
- 17:19SPEAKER_01: So we predict the full queue,
- 17:20SPEAKER_01: but then we mask it and we only have one kind of curtain,
- 17:25SPEAKER_01: one profile that we calculate then the loss on.
- 17:30SPEAKER_01: I can briefly show the kind of the model architecture that makes sense.
- 17:35SPEAKER_01: So on the left side,
- 17:37SPEAKER_01: you can see kind of the infrared,
- 17:39SPEAKER_01: the visible channels as an input,
- 17:41SPEAKER_01: the static metadata.
- 17:44SPEAKER_01: We have like a,
- 17:46SPEAKER_01: There's a little bar across the top.
- 17:50They might want to click the OK just to clear that so we can
- 17:53see what's going on.
- 17:55SPEAKER_00: OK, metadata, images.
- 17:58SPEAKER_01: You know, exactly.
- 17:59SPEAKER_01: And yeah, at the beginning, we experimented just with a simple unit.
- 18:06SPEAKER_01: I guess it's always a good starting point.
- 18:09And then in the output,
- 18:11we actually used and because it's kind of like a 2D to 3D translation.
- 18:16SPEAKER_01: So in the output, we used the
- 18:18kind of the channel dimension as the vertical dimension because
- 18:22then we only
- 18:23predict like one channel or like we have like the two different
- 18:26variables isolate
- 18:27the content and isolate the number concentration that we
- 18:29predict but then we use
- 18:30the channel dimension as the vertical dimension and then we
- 18:36create like these cubes
- 18:39SPEAKER_01: Then we use the masking and calculate the loss on the masked variables.
- 18:48SPEAKER_01: This is the first try.
- 18:50SPEAKER_01: I guess this is always the problem when working with convolutions,
- 18:57SPEAKER_01: both in computer vision,
- 18:59but especially also with satellite data that you always get
- 19:02this blurring effect.
- 19:05um if you if you use conf nets um and then we yeah just uh were
- 19:12inspired by some
- 19:13other work in uh um yeah different discipline like physics
- 19:18discipline uh where they
- 19:21had like sparse meteor showers or something um and then used to
- 19:25introduce this
- 19:25discriminator model so it's basically similar to the vae again
- 19:31so that you have
- 19:32SPEAKER_01: like a
- 19:33generator here which is our unit then we have a patch scan that
- 19:39then just learns to
- 19:43tell real from fake images apart and acts like as a structural
- 19:49loss to produce more
- 19:50SPEAKER_01: realistic
- 19:54SPEAKER_01: structures of clouds.
- 19:55SPEAKER_01: For example,
- 19:56SPEAKER_01: you have always this fading,
- 19:58SPEAKER_01: both in the horizontal,
- 19:58SPEAKER_01: but also towards the edges of the cloud,
- 20:01SPEAKER_01: which is not what we see actually in the physical world,
- 20:05SPEAKER_01: which is not physically consistent.
- 20:07SPEAKER_01: And using this discriminator helped a lot to produce better results.
- 20:13And yeah,
- 20:14then it's kind of just like the EGAN-like architecture that we used.
- 20:21and this this architecture presumably evolved to this point
- 20:23this wasn't v1 so sorry
- 20:28say again as in you you tried a few other like intermediate
- 20:32steps towards this
- 20:33SPEAKER_00: final architecture
- 20:35SPEAKER_01: Exactly.
- 20:35SPEAKER_01: I mean, yeah, we tried a lot of different things.
- 20:37SPEAKER_01: I mean,
- 20:38SPEAKER_01: in the beginning,
- 20:38SPEAKER_01: we only predicted like not because now we do like many vertical levels.
- 20:45SPEAKER_01: So like I think like 60 or so.
- 20:47In the beginning,
- 20:48we only did like two levels,
- 20:49like two type of different Cirrus clouds.
- 20:52SPEAKER_01: And then we did like the full vertical.
- 20:54SPEAKER_01: We first did the UNet.
- 20:56SPEAKER_01: Also,
- 20:57SPEAKER_01: even just using pixel-based approaches,
- 20:59SPEAKER_01: but then we saw using the spatial structure of the cloud in forms.
- 21:06SPEAKER_01: For example, what I earlier showed was this convective cores.
- 21:10SPEAKER_01: If you see the model in
- 21:13SPEAKER_01: I hope, I guess that's my interpretation of it.
- 21:15SPEAKER_01: What the model learns is you,
- 21:16SPEAKER_01: it seems like a conductive core,
- 21:18SPEAKER_01: then it usually,
- 21:19SPEAKER_01: it knows like,
- 21:21SPEAKER_01: it learns that there's usually like an anvil attached to it,
- 21:24SPEAKER_01: and then it kind of learns these spatial interactions.
- 21:28SPEAKER_01: That's kind of the interpretation,
- 21:30SPEAKER_01: I guess,
- 21:31why the spatial model works better than just using a pixel
- 21:34based approach,
- 21:35SPEAKER_01: which other people have done like some years ago already.
- 21:38SPEAKER_00: Right.
- 21:40SPEAKER_00: And what was the loss function?
- 21:43Yeah,
- 21:44so the loss function was we had the kind of composition of loss functions.
- 21:51So we just use like an L1 loss for the kind of loss for the
- 21:59masked input versus the
- 22:01SPEAKER_01: kind of the actual observations.
- 22:04SPEAKER_01: Again,
- 22:05SPEAKER_01: here,
- 22:05like the L1 works a bit better than the root mean squared error
- 22:10in the sense that
- 22:11SPEAKER_01: it produces less blurring.
- 22:13SPEAKER_01: And then in the discriminator loss, you have like a Wasserstein loss.
- 22:19SPEAKER_01: And then we combine this and have like an adaptive loss rate,
- 22:24SPEAKER_01: which we,
- 22:26because kind of like a similar setup was used in some seminal
- 22:30diffusion model papers.
- 22:33And yeah,
- 22:34I think it's always good to go and hug and face and check like
- 22:36what are,
- 22:38SPEAKER_01: kind of like state of the art models and computer vision doing,
- 22:41SPEAKER_01: which is,
- 22:41SPEAKER_01: I guess,
- 22:42SPEAKER_01: like the discipline in,
- 22:45SPEAKER_01: uh,
- 22:45SPEAKER_01: in machine learning,
- 22:46SPEAKER_01: that's closest to what we are doing in satellite data and see what we,
- 22:50SPEAKER_01: how we can do a transfer from these,
- 22:53SPEAKER_01: like a cutting edge AI research to our application research.
- 22:58SPEAKER_01: And yeah.
- 22:59SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 23:00SPEAKER_00: I wonder,
- 23:01can you give us an insight to the engineering approach
- 23:02considering you have like
- 23:04SPEAKER_00: quite a strong engineering background,
- 23:05SPEAKER_00: of course.
- 23:07SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
- 23:08SPEAKER_01: I have to say that this project,
- 23:11SPEAKER_01: I'm really fortunate that I could carry it out in the ESA PHY lab.
- 23:16SPEAKER_01: So my PhD was based at ETH in Zurich,
- 23:19SPEAKER_01: but this project itself was started at the European Space Agency,
- 23:25SPEAKER_01: where I had great collaborators.
- 23:30SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, the engineering process was quite incremental.
- 23:33SPEAKER_01: So there was a lot of whiteboard session from data engineering,
- 23:38like how do we co-locate the different data sets together and
- 23:42then building up the
- 23:43SPEAKER_01: models incrementally and improving the outcome.
- 23:50SPEAKER_01: So I think there was...
- 23:53SPEAKER_01: I guess this is maybe what other people can resonate with.
- 23:58It's about taking existing approaches and then you have to
- 24:03refine it to your kind
- 24:06of specific problem set because usually it never works by just
- 24:09taking something.
- 24:11SPEAKER_01: And I think, yeah, there's no...
- 24:14SPEAKER_01: I think it's advisable to also use like battle-tested components,
- 24:18SPEAKER_01: like not writing too many things from scratch.
- 24:21SPEAKER_01: So we,
- 24:21SPEAKER_01: for example,
- 24:22SPEAKER_01: also use these ConfNext blocks,
- 24:24SPEAKER_01: which made quite a buzz,
- 24:26SPEAKER_01: I think,
- 24:26SPEAKER_01: in the computer vision community some years ago.
- 24:31SPEAKER_01: And just using kind of these components,
- 24:35SPEAKER_01: I think is really helpful than trying to invent everything from scratch,
- 24:39SPEAKER_01: even if that's a lot of fun.
- 24:41SPEAKER_01: But I think it just, yeah.
- 24:44avoids too many headaches on like the small nitty-gritty
- 24:48machine learning that you
- 24:50SPEAKER_01: still have anyway.
- 24:51SPEAKER_00: Yeah, of course.
- 24:52SPEAKER_00: There's always some challenges.
- 24:54SPEAKER_00: So this is really, really nice results.
- 24:57SPEAKER_00: You got a paper out on this work?
- 25:00SPEAKER_01: Yes.
- 25:02So currently the paper is on archive and it's hopefully
- 25:05accepted soon at AI for the
- 25:07SPEAKER_01: Earth Systems.
- 25:08SPEAKER_01: It's an AMS journal.
- 25:11um and also the data set is out currently one year but we are
- 25:15now extending it to
- 25:1610 years so maybe you can link it in the in the show notes so
- 25:20people are interested
- 25:21feel free to play around with data or contact me um if you're
- 25:26interested to use the
- 25:27SPEAKER_00: data or to learn more about it right and what's next for you then
- 25:33SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so I finished a PhD and now I'm transferring to industry again.
- 25:39SPEAKER_01: I will start in an Amsterdam-based startup called Dexter Energy,
- 25:44and they're doing renewable energy yield prediction and also
- 25:51price forecasts for
- 25:53SPEAKER_01: renewable energy prices based on weather and satellite data.
- 25:57SPEAKER_01: So I'm going a bit away from the climate, science, the physics,
- 26:02SPEAKER_01: and more to like energy applied machine learning,
- 26:08SPEAKER_01: still staying kind of sticking to the AI for climate change.
- 26:13SPEAKER_01: So yeah,
- 26:14I guess the renewable energies is a big part of solving the
- 26:21demand for more energy
- 26:23SPEAKER_01: and yeah,
- 26:26SPEAKER_01: exciting times ahead for sure.
- 26:28SPEAKER_00: Well, congratulations.
- 26:29SPEAKER_00: Very productive PhD.
- 26:31SPEAKER_00: Great, great work.
- 26:32SPEAKER_00: Fully open sourced as well.
- 26:34SPEAKER_00: Paper to look forward to.
- 26:35SPEAKER_00: Where's the best place for people to follow your updates?
- 26:41SPEAKER_01: So I would say semi-active on LinkedIn.
- 26:45SPEAKER_01: I guess that would be the place to follow me.
- 26:49SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I guess you can put it also in the show notes.
- 26:52SPEAKER_00: Will do.
- 26:53SPEAKER_00: Okay, brilliant.
- 26:54SPEAKER_00: Thanks for joining me and all the best for your new role.
- 26:57SPEAKER_01: Yeah, thanks, Robin.
- 26:58SPEAKER_01: It was great talking to you, and yeah, have a good day.