Latest / Chrisman Commentary - Daily Mortgage News / 9.4.26 Aging Borrower Population; RETR’s Steven Wynands on Datasets; Payrolls Friday

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9.4.26 Aging Borrower Population; RETR’s Steven Wynands on Datasets; Payrolls Friday · Chrisman Commentary - Daily Mortgage News

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Chrisman Commentary, Daily Mortgage News Podcast.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: I'm your host, Robbie Chrisman.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Topics on today's episode include the aging population of borrowers, mortgage backed security, and MSR trends impacting rates, and my interview with RETR's Steven Wynands on putting mortgage and real estate data in the hands of originators.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Here, take a listen to a little preview.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Obviously, Redder publishes weekly mortgage market intelligence for loan officers and executives.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: There's agent in LO production, there's LO market movements.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: What is the recent data revealed about the mortgage and real estate industries out there?
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Give us some insights into what you're seeing kind of trendwise.
• 0:43
  Speaker: There's a lot of emphasis on borrower retention to recapture for refinances to get that ready.
• 0:50
  Speaker: There's also a lot of movement, uh, a lot of MA happening.
• 0:54
  Speaker: And so people want to see what happens when that occurs.
• 0:57
  Speaker: Borrower retention, loan officer retention, agent retention.
• 1:00
  Speaker: It's all about retention, whichever way you look at it.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Thanks to Zillow Home Loans, Zillow's in-house mortgage lender, for sponsoring this week's podcasts.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: By integrating Zillow's real estate platform with financing, Zillow Home Loans helps buyers move from dreaming about a home to holding the keys.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: With tools built for modern lending, Zillow Home Loans loan officers can focus on guiding buyers with care and confidence.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Zillow Home Loans is an equal housing lender.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: The world is getting older faster than ever before.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: In the US, the share of population aged 65 and over is projected to jump from 18.9% in 2025 to 23.4% by 2060.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: Despite continued growth of its older population, the nation will still be younger than nearly half the world's countries by 2060.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: In 2025, the United States ranked as the 48th oldest country out of 227.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: By 2060, the country will fall to 110th place because countries in other regions are aging much more rapidly.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: By 2025, for the first time in human history, the share of adults aged 65 and over outnumbered the share of children ages 0 to 5 in the world's population.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: A gap projected to increase in the coming years.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: With mortgage rates still elevated and prepayment risk muted, investors are favoring longer duration exposure lower in the coupon stack.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: GSE in bank demand for agency mortgage-backed securities has slowed, despite August agency MBS supply rising to $116 billion, up 4.6% from July and 5% year over year, but the increase was largely seasonal rather than a sign of renewed refinancing activity, with higher mortgage rates pushing refinance-driven issuance to its lowest share in a year, while purchase volumes remain relatively stable.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Keep in mind that September is historically the weakest month for MBS performance.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: The preferred strategy remains capital preservation, low payup pools, and a short duration posture.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: MBS loan production was up 3.3% from August 2025, with Ginny May production particularly strong.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Conventional 30-year UMBS issuance jumped 13% month over month in August and shifted decisively toward higher coupons as borrowers' rates remained around 6.7% overall.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: For mortgage-backed securities, the resulting slowdown in prepayments is extending aggregate MBS duration to a year-to-date high of 5.75 years, increasing sensitivity to further rate moves.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: That more than 96% of borrowers have no refinancing incentive also improves convexity and limits near-term prepayment risk.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Shorter duration securities such as PNEMA 15 years may therefore offer relative protection if rates remain elevated.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: The supply mix is moving up in coupon and increasingly reflecting purchase activity rather than refinance-driven turnover.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: MSR valuation and MSR risk are related, but traditional rate and spread factors explain relatively little of current bulk valuation levels.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: They do remain effective at explaining month-to-month price movements, meaning uncertainty about an asset's value does not necessarily make it difficult to hedge.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: For portfolio construction and stress testing, historical lookbacks can provide valuable understanding of how MSRs behave when rates, curves, mortgage spreads, and liquidity shift simultaneously, while also defining the range of outcomes that forward-looking models may miss.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: Rather than relying on a single multiple, duration or convexity estimate, effective MSR risk management requires comparing forward-looking models with long-term realized behavior, recognizing where they diverge and building hedges that remain directionally sound across changing market cycles.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: In terms of news impacting mortgage rates, Fed Governor Waller said yesterday that he would vote to hold the Fed funds rate range steady at the FOMC meeting later this month if there are no negative surprises in upcoming data.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: So let's review some data.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: August data data showed services activity accelerated, with ISM services PMI rising to 55.4% and SP Global's final reaching final reading reaching 56.5%, but persistently elevated input costs raise the risk of continued price pass through and inflation.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: The wider than expected $88.6 billion trade deficit is likely to weigh on Q3 GDP growth, although downward revision and unit labor cost growth to 1.2% bodes well for inflation relief.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: The labor market also remains relatively healthy, with initial claims at just 206,000 signaling continued low layoffs.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: While growth is holding up, sticky service sector costs could make it harder for the Fed to ease policy aggressively.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: After the ADP employment change report pointed to the addition of 38,000 non-farm payrolls in August versus 47,000 expectations, today's payrolls report is likely to set the stage rather than determine the Fed's September 16th decision.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: With August CPI and PPI ultimately carrying the most weight in determining whether policymakers deliver a hawkish hold or hike rates.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: For today's interview, I wanted to welcome to the show Redder Stephen Weinans to talk about putting mortgage and real estate data in the hands of originators.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: Redder is the preferred mortgage and real estate data platform for thousands of LOs, and he has big aspirations for redefining market intelligence in mortgage and real estate.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: A lot of people have ideas for a company, but don't necessarily mobilize that.
• 6:36
  Speaker: Yeah, this is actually uh we jokingly refer to it, my co-founder and I, as our 15-year overnight success.
• 6:44
  Speaker: And so a lot of people think uh this started in 2023 when we launched it nationwide with AIM, but we started working on this in 2022, the company itself.
• 6:54
  Speaker: But before then, man, like my co-founder and I, we're both software engineers.
• 6:59
  Speaker: We love finding problems and trying to make them better.
• 7:03
  Speaker: And I started off uh with my co-founder Steve, who I've known since eighth grade.
• 7:08
  Speaker: So we went to middle school, high school, and college together.
• 7:12
  Speaker: We've been working on projects all throughout our lives.
• 7:15
  Speaker: And once we graduated and went to our consulting jobs in the DC area, government contractors, we were doing side projects together after hours.
• 7:23
  Speaker: And then eventually I came across something that I really wanted to fix, which was real estate.
• 7:27
  Speaker: And so I think probably around like 2013, we started other companies, which then led to another pivot that which led to this pivot.
• 7:33
  Speaker: And so we've just been thinking, doing, building, and making things better like our entire lives.
• 7:38
  Speaker: And that's how we got this going.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: So Reddit is a mortgage market intelligence platform.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: It's used by a variety of people LOs, branch managers, mortgage companies to build realtor relationships.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: You're behind it, not me.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Can you explain to the world what Redder is?
• 7:56
  Speaker: Yeah, of course.
• 7:57
  Speaker: Our primary use case uh comes from loan officers who use Redder to research realtors to attract, uh, to work with them.
• 8:05
  Speaker: Uh, and then that uh created a groundswell and it grew to the point where their managers started taking notice, like, hey, how come your production is improving so much?
• 8:15
  Speaker: And then looking over their shoulder, like, hey, what the heck is this thing that you're using?
• 8:19
  Speaker: And then the cat was out of the bag, and then their managers came to us, and the mortgage companies wanted to use us to research and recruit loan officers, and from there bubbled up to lenders saying, like, whoa, whoa, whoa, what is this thing the mortgage companies are using?
• 8:32
  Speaker: Oh my gosh, I could use it to research mortgage companies to loan our money through.
• 8:36
  Speaker: And so those are the three primary users of the system.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Philosophically, what gap does this fill?
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: Why did this gap exist?
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Why were you able to exploit it for the benefit of the mortgage industry?
• 8:52
  Speaker: Yeah, the truth is I had no idea that any other product like this existed in this ecosystem when we started it.
• 8:58
  Speaker: What I saw was this gap that I realized right after the pandemic housing market came to a halt.
• 9:04
  Speaker: You might remember loans falling from the sky.
• 9:08
  Speaker: I was a top-producing realtor, and I couldn't get any return phone calls or text messages from loan officers.
• 9:14
  Speaker: It's really difficult.
• 9:15
  Speaker: And then all of a sudden, one day, I get a bunch of calls.
• 9:18
  Speaker: I get like five calls in a row from different loan officers trying to take me back out to lunch and coffee again.
• 9:23
  Speaker: And that's when the light bulb moment went off in my head.
• 9:25
  Speaker: I was like, loan officers' number one source of income is the realtor.
• 9:29
  Speaker: And loan officers are the other 50% of what it takes to realize the American dream.
• 9:35
  Speaker: Yet loan officers are they don't get enough credit for the work that they do in helping a buyer achieve that American dream.
• 9:41
  Speaker: And I was, I realized then, like, wait a minute, everyone's needed, they don't get enough credit.
• 9:48
  Speaker: And then they're trying to create relationships that'll help put food on their family's tables, loan officers are.
• 9:53
  Speaker: But trying to attract a top producer like me with lunch and coffee isn't gonna cut it.
• 9:58
  Speaker: And so I was like, wait a minute, I know exactly what realtors need.
• 10:01
  Speaker: I'm now gonna build that and put that into the hands of loan officers so that the next time that they call a realtor, they can provide something of so much value.
• 10:08
  Speaker: Like the realtor is gonna want to talk to them and use them and ask them for help all the time.
• 10:11
  Speaker: And so I said, you know what?
• 10:13
  Speaker: Let's build this thing called track record, real estate track record.
• 10:16
  Speaker: That's what Redder stands for.
• 10:18
  Speaker: And that's where it all started and it's evolved far beyond that.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: A huge component in everything we do, I don't I don't want to be too cliche, but it's trust.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: People want to trust one another.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: You want to trust the data you have, people want to trust their counterparties, whether that's a vendor or a service provider.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: You talk about building trust.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: And and uh I like I said, I don't want to sound cliche, but just the importance of it in today's modern economy.
• 10:49
  Speaker: Yeah, trust is so important, especially when you look at an industry like real estate and mortgage, because our industry, and the reason it's never going to be replaced by uh robots and AI, is because our business is all about relationships.
• 11:04
  Speaker: What are relationships built on?
• 11:06
  Speaker: The foundation of trust.
• 11:08
  Speaker: And that's what we aim to solve here.
• 11:10
  Speaker: The way I came up in in real estate from being a rookie to becoming rookie of the year my first year, is by proving out I knew what I was talking about, building that trust with people who are buying 300, 500, $1 million homes, and even getting that trust that they would they would trust me with their million dollar asset to list their home.
• 11:32
  Speaker: That takes a lot.
• 11:33
  Speaker: And so trust is how this world goes around in mortgage and real estate.
• 11:37
  Speaker: And that's why everything that we do is built on the North Star of improving relationships, which are built on trust.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: In addition to trust, data is also huge.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: In this age of AI, you hear it all the time.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: Good data in, good data out, bad data in, bad data out.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: The better data you have, the better your overall enterprise is going to be.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: And once again, not to be too cliche or simplistic, but can you please speak to the importance of data in this age that we live in?
• 12:07
  Speaker: You are so right about that.
• 12:08
  Speaker: Data is the foundation upon which good decisions are made, especially if you're gonna feed data into an AI model or agents acting upon data.
• 12:19
  Speaker: You're gonna want it to know the most clean and accurate data possible.
• 12:23
  Speaker: Otherwise, you're gonna make uninformed decisions or poorly informed decisions, which will result in suboptimal outcomes.
• 12:30
  Speaker: And that's been a big pillar of ours since the beginning, since before anyone even uttered AI.
• 12:36
  Speaker: Because again, my my background in engineering, like I love to get things as perfect as possible.
• 12:42
  Speaker: And so from the get-go, we've been sourcing data from far more partners than I think an outside observer would say is reasonable, but that's the quality, the standard that we hold ourselves up to of excellence and data source truth and equality.
• 13:00
  Speaker: And so if we've got extra data to be redundant and expand coverage, because we know that if you're going to buy the software to make your decisions, it's got to be the best data that we can give you so you can have the best outcomes for you and your family.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: So for the uninitiated, just what sort of data is on Redder?
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: What can people find on there?
• 13:22
  Speaker: Of course, good question.
• 13:23
  Speaker: I live in this so often that I don't think about that.
• 13:25
  Speaker: But yes, Redder, the mortgage market intelligence platform, um, we are built upon two major categories of data.
• 13:33
  Speaker: There is mortgage data, and then there is real estate data.
• 13:37
  Speaker: And when you combine both buckets, you can create a very meaningful picture of mapped relationships across the industry.
• 13:46
  Speaker: Who's doing what, with whom, what kind of products, what kind of volume, what geography, who they're working with.
• 13:53
  Speaker: Are they working more with someone or less with someone over time?
• 13:56
  Speaker: There's so much that you can surface with this data that we've combined and presented forth.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: Obviously, a big component is borrower retention.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: And I'm hoping you can speak to that a little bit, how this helps with borrower retention.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: Does this also help find borrowers in the first place?
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Because I think we're starting to see these days that purchase and refinance, they're two distinct paths for companies out there when it comes to getting borrowers.
• 14:23
  Speaker: Yeah.
• 14:23
  Speaker: And the good thing is since we're guided by that North Star of building better relationships, we remember that uh it started out with a realtor relationship.
• 14:30
  Speaker: But now there's a lot of focus on the borrower relationship and retention because you're seeing what's going on out there with uh servicing rights and uh retaining those borrowers and being able to solicit them for refinances and such.
• 14:42
  Speaker: And so we have evolved to um having that information on our platform about which borrowers might be good outreach targets uh because of their interest rates or their equity.
• 14:55
  Speaker: And that kind of information has uh is now available uh on Reddit, yes.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: I'm going to ask you to put aside your humility for a second here, and you're you're very endearing.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: But this has taken the industry by storm.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: All these people I respect have nothing but great things to say.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: It's blown up.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: Hey, are you using?
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm using Reddit, it's been great for me.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: But what has made this such an overnight, not overnight sensation, because obviously it's 13 years old, but what has allowed it to take the industry by storm?
• 15:23
  Speaker: I know you've asked me to put it aside my humility, but that's exactly how this company was founded and how we continue to exist today.
• 15:29
  Speaker: And we'll never forget who we are.
• 15:30
  Speaker: And we felt so strongly about this in 2022 that I was working five jobs at the time.
• 15:36
  Speaker: I quit them all because I felt so strongly that this was going to make such a huge difference in the world.
• 15:41
  Speaker: And because it was, we needed to codify who we are and how we operate.
• 15:45
  Speaker: Uh, that's led us to this growth.
• 15:47
  Speaker: And the key values that we operate on are honesty, integrity, fairness, accountability, and excellence.
• 15:54
  Speaker: And from that, we've derived our philosophies.
• 15:57
  Speaker: And that is to lead with value, to help others, to give more than you get.
• 16:01
  Speaker: And so I think what you're seeing is the promise that we've made to ourselves from the beginning, we continue to live that every single day.
• 16:07
  Speaker: Our heads are never going to get too big because there's so much more to do and so many more people to help.
• 16:12
  Speaker: And because we want to be helpful, I think people see that.
• 16:15
  Speaker: They generally feel it.
• 16:16
  Speaker: And seeing that we continue to put out these updates every few weeks, they believe in it and trust in us to help them with their careers.
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: Where does all of this lead?
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: When you think about what Redder is trying to do for the industry and kind of your roadmap, what's the what's the one, three, five year plan?
• 16:39
  Speaker: At Redder, we have a big, very, audacious goal to become a part of every single mortgage and real estate transaction in America.
• 16:48
  Speaker: We believe there's a future where we become like a Carfax for mortgage and real estate professionals, whereby no one does a mortgage or real estate transaction without looking at a track record to make sure that they're going to be well covered and well supported in this major financial decision.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: Steven, I had a great time, man.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: This is this is phenomenal.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: I'm uh I'm glad we got to make it happen.
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: And uh, you know, I wish you and Rudder the best of luck and hopefully we'll speak again soon.
• 17:15
  Speaker: Ravi, Rob, Kristen Crew, thank you all so much for having me on here.
• 17:18
  Speaker: I appreciate you.
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: Today brings the all-important August jobs report.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: Non-farm payrolls were up 162,000 versus expectations of rising 45,000 in August after a negative 23,000 reading in July.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: The unemployment rate was 4.1%, unchanged as expected.
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: With the Fed increasingly focused on the stability of the labor market rather than weak headline job growth, the strong job numbers are pushing the narrative for a rate increase by the Fed, leaving the inflation data as the determining factor of whether underlying price pressures have eased enough to justify holding rates or instead force the Fed to tighten later this month.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: After the strong employment news, agency MBS prices are worse.
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: An eighth to a quarter versus Thursday's close, the two years yielding 4.41, and the ten years yielding 4.79 after closing yesterday at 4.76%.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: The yield curve is flattening.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: Let's wrap up with a joke and some housekeeping.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: I found a used football in a secondhand store, picked it up and took it to the counter.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: How much is this?
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: I asked.
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: That'll be five bucks, said the owner.
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: Would you like me to pump it up for you?
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: Of course.
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: Thanks a lot, I replied.
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: So he got a small pump from under the counter, and in a few seconds the ball was as good as new.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: All done, he said.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: That'll be ten dollars, please.
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: Ten dollars, I replied, but you said five dollars just now.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: He looked up and said, Sorry.
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: Inflation.
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: Thanks again to this week's podcast sponsor, Zillow Home Loans.
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: Zillow's in-house mortgage lender.
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: With tools built for modern mortgage lending, Zillow Home Loans loan officers can focus on guiding buyers with care and confidence.
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: To learn more, visit Zillow.com slash home loans.