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New Zealand's Real Estate Reality: Prices Drop Despite Lower Interest Rates · That Home Loan Hub

• 0:10
  SPEAKER_01: Hello and welcome back to that Humble on the Hump.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_01: Excuse my voice.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_01: I am joined by Kunch and she will take the heavy load off this recording.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_01: Hi Kunch.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_00: I am Kiola everyone.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: Let's go.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, let's go.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I thought uh let's dive into the current housing market and just um have a chat about that uh and what the data has come through for our August period.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_00: What is the August period?
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_01: Well is it doing good or is it not doing so good?
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: Well the um housing market or landscape isn't as great as what obviously um sellers are wanting, so it's actually dropped um 0.5% um year on year.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: So that just that brings the medium house prices in New Zealand to 761,000 despite the official cash rate uh dropping.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_01: Wow, so even with the OCR dropping, it's still not helping to stimulate the economy.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, interest rates were what at the sevens, now they're dropped to below five.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, below this time since 2022.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: Yep, below five, you know, we're seeing um 4.75, and that's still not helping.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: So what's going on?
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: What do you think's going on?
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's uh it's an interesting one, right?
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_01: Because from one hand, the winners are our buyers, right?
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_01: The first home buyers are definitely coming back to the market, they want to buy their first home.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_01: But it's interesting, some of them are still sitting and waiting, going, Oh, maybe it's gonna go down even further.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe I shouldn't buy yet.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and but I think it's a larger scale, right?
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_01: The unemployment rate is high, the lots of businesses are shutting down.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, between you and I, how many cafes in Wellington we know that shut down.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and locally and all the businesses around us, you know, even our street where our offices, so many places for lease.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: Yep, so many unoccupied offices around.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and um, and that's the sign the economy is not doing that great.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_01: And on larger scale, we usually are affected by the global economy as well.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_01: So that's America, Australia, you know, whatever is going on over there is gonna have an effect on us as well.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_01: So the confidence, the consumer confidence is just not there.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_01: No, and I think larger levers will have to be pulled to get people spending again.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_01: And and this is what we're hoping for, right?
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_01: The OCR for the next one is getting reviewed on the 8th of October.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, it is getting reviewed on the 8th.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: So we'll do another episode on our predictions on that one, I think.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: But just circle circling back on that, because obviously the majority of our work is helping um a lot of first home buyers.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: My favorite thing to do.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_00: I love my job doing that.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: Um, although, you know, the sale volumes have come down, um, there are a lot of um stock on the market at the moment, meaning that our first home buyers have a lot more choices in a house.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: Although some have not been able to find some, there's still more stock coming in, and historically we always see um spring and summer brings on more stock as well for us.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: So it'll be interesting to see what the report is for the next quarter.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_01: Well, we're in spring now, right?
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we are actually gone.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_01: Where's the year gone?
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_01: Honestly, when I look back, I'm like, how is it's almost Christmas?
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_01: What?
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: I know, yeah.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_00: So it'll be interesting and also really exciting as well for the um those first home buyers.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_00: So I guess the message um to get out to those that are sitting on the fence or not sure, you know, where to start, what to do, there is stock coming on, um, and I think they'll be at a really affordable prices.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_00: You may actually be able to pick up some gems and some bargains.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_01: And the thing is, like, there are sellers that just can't move on the price and they're sitting, right?
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_01: Like holding on to that property.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_01: We know a few.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_01: We know a few.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_00: One might be me.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_01: But um majority of sellers, they are usually selling to buy something, right?
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_01: And if you're buying in the same market, it doesn't matter.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, like they're buying to uh get a bigger house, for instance, or to downsize.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_01: So if they're buying in the same market, it doesn't matter.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_01: But it's it's only the sellers that are affected in terms of their lending and they just can't go down, yeah.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_01: You usually would know they would hold hang on to the property a bit longer.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_01: But um, good things are coming.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_01: So um stay positive, people, it's gonna get better.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, right?
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: Right?
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, right, yes, stay positive, it's gonna get better.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: It's gonna get better.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_00: But yes, the message, I guess, is those again going back.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: If you are sitting on the fence and you're not too sure, reach out.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: Reach out to us, come have a chat, have a coffee.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_01: We'll be able to help you out.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_01: I love it.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_01: Awesome.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you guys so much, and tune in to our next episode.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna talk about OCR predictions.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_01: Um, this is our second to last OCR review this year.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so it's gonna be a big one.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_01: And I believe a new uh person has been appointed to run Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_01: So might be new changes coming, but she's not starting until 1st of December.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_01: So she's gonna miss out on the two OCR.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_01: I wonder if that's why they're bringing her in after.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_01: But it's um it's really good to see a woman at the helm and um let's see what that brings.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_01: Um, thank you so much and see you next time.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks all.