Latest / Mortgage Marketing Radio / Ep #23: Mastering the Mortgage Markets with Barry Habib

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Ep #23: Mastering the Mortgage Markets with Barry Habib · Mortgage Marketing Radio

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Welcome to Mortgage Marketing Radio.
1:19
Brought to you by the Mortgage Marketing Institute.
1:22
Your number one source for truth in mortgage marketing.
1:29
Hey listeners, Jeff Zimfer.
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Welcome back to another episode of Mortgage Marketing Radio.
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Thank you for tuning in to what is going to be an epic episode.
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That's right.
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My special guest this week is none other than Mr. Barry Habib.
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And I'm sure many of you listening right now know who Barry is.
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He's been a prominent voice and advocate of the mortgage industry out there in the media
2:02
educating not only us as mortgage professionals, but the consumers as well.
2:07
For over 25 years, he's been a media spokesperson on CNBC and many, many other different media
2:14
channels out there.
2:15
What you may not know about Barry actually is that he's also got a very successful career
2:21
in history as a mortgage loan originator with over $2.2 billion in personal production
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to his name.
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So there are definitely some insights and knowledge and some guidance and direction that
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we can glean from Barry and you never get tired of hearing those insights and the knowledge
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that Barry brings to the table.
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You may also know that Barry is the founder and CEO of MBS Highway, which he'll share
2:47
a little bit about as a company that's created to help you interpret and forecast activity
2:52
in the mortgage rate and bond markets so you can be more intelligent in the advice that
2:57
you give to your clients and your referral partners.
3:01
Now in the little side note, he's also the lead producer managing partner and majority
3:04
shareholder in rock of ages.
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And if you haven't seen that show, it's been a theatrical production running on Broadway
3:11
and London and it's also in Vegas, which is where I saw it.
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And I got to tell you, it's one of the top five shows that I have seen in Vegas.
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So this episode, tell you what, here's what we're doing with Barry.
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We are talking about the markets, the impact of the election, Barry's market forecast for
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Q4 and beyond.
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Barry's take on what it takes to succeed today as a loan officer in today's market versus
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five years ago and lots of really great insights about appreciation, about how we can adjust
3:44
for the market accordingly and bottom line, how we can simply become a better, more informed,
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more professional, you know, mortgage loan originator doing great things for our clients
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and our referral partners.
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So I'm excited.
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Are you?
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I can't wait to get into the show.
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All right.
4:02
So let's do it then.
4:03
Let's get into the position into this week's episode.
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Barry Habib.
4:08
Welcome to the show.
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Thanks so much for having me.
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It is our pleasure, you know, I like to say it's an honor actually because I've been following
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you, respecting your information and your advice for I'd say since 2003, roughly.
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So thank you for being here and I'm really pleased to bring you to our audience.
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Obviously many people, many loan officers know who you are because they've been following
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you for a number of years too.
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But for those that might be relatively new to the industry, what they may not be aware of
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because you've been the face and the voice of the mortgage industry, you know, on CNBC
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and all these networks for years is that actually prior to that, you know, you had a very
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long successful career as a mortgage originator with a lifetime volume of over $2.2 billion
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and you know, 25 years roughly, totally in the business.
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So kudos to you for that.
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But, you know, the other thing that people are aware with you is you've got interests
5:05
outside of the mortgage industries too.
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So my first question I wanted to ask you if I could get you a loan is, all right, so
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how do you go from mortgage professional rights, see speaker or coach, you know, you know,
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television personality to rock of ages, how do you tell me about that road?
5:26
All right.
5:27
So I'll be quick with that.
5:28
First of all, thanks so much.
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You're very kind.
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You do such a great job as well.
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And the respect is certainly mutual, man, appreciate you.
5:35
So yeah, how do you, how do you do that?
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So getting involved in Broadway is pretty risky, you know, they say, how do you make a small
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fortune on Broadway?
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Well, you start off with a big fortune, but it's probably a good idea that I was inexperienced
5:48
and ignorant, otherwise I would not have probably done it.
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So yeah, the transition was from doing TV, goodness since 1992, CNBC email and show them
5:56
monthly mortgage report and haven't done a lot of stuff for Fox, somebody actually really
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liked my voice for a movie.
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So they put me in this movie, it's a kids movie.
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And they liked my voice and accepted a reasonable job of acting and you know, it's all networking
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like anything else.
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So I wound up being in like six or seven different Hollywood movies and I've done a couple
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since a small roles, but speaking roles and a movie that I was in called Barry Monday.
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The guy who actually was a director and writer, Chris Duranzo, he wrote Rock of Ages and
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got to know him there, got to know the property and myself and four other guys we took it off
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Broadway.
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By the way, that movie, Barry Monday actually made the trailer.
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It's a funny movie.
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A lot of star power in that movie, certainly not me, but there's a lot of star power in that
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movie.
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But so we took it off Broadway and then, you know, people want nuts for it.
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We decided to really take a big risk and take it on Broadway and we got really lucky.
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We got, you know, Fox Tony knobs and all kinds of press coverage and we like the cool
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show on Broadway.
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We ran for six years.
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In the history of Broadway shows, we're number 27 this far as the longest run.
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So proud of that.
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Got had a movie.
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I was actually in the movie Tom Groose started and it was a fun trip and it was really
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great.
7:09
Oh, that's awesome.
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I have to tell you.
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So I saw Rock of Ages in Vegas, not on Broadway and I have to tell you, I was blown
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away.
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It was a great show.
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Great.
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The way it was put together and it being a fan of, you know, a group kind of in the 80s in
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high school.
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So a big fan of the music from that era and I thought it's probably one of the better
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shows.
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I'd say top.
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I'm not blowing smoke here.
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Top five shows I've seen in Vegas.
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Well, thanks, man.
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You know, like I said, we're the cool show a lot of a lot about these guys like our show.
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You know, a lot of times guys go to a show kicking and screaming, but guys really like our
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show as well as women.
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So it's about my wife.
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Yeah.
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So it's a lot of fun.
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By the way, I love music.
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So getting involved with something musical that was great.
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I actually sing in a band with Constantine, who is my star in Broadway in American Idol.
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So we have band rock of age.
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We have good times and stuff.
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So it's fun.
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Yeah.
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So you're speaking my language.
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You know, I'm a closet struggling guitar player.
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So I get it.
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Got a jam.
8:03
Got a jam.
8:04
All right.
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Cool stuff.
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Okay.
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So let's dive in here and talk about the wonderful mortgage business.
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And obviously you're well connected to what's going on in the market and you speak and
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meet hundreds of loan officers every single month.
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So one of the questions I wanted to open up with is especially considering you've got this
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very wide lens of experience.
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And so my question is, is succeeding today as a loan officer in today's market different
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than five years ago?
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How would you, what advice would you give to those loan officers of how they need to
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pivot for today's market?
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Well, first of all, that's a really, really well structured question.
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It's very, very insightful because it is totally different.
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Very different, certainly than it was, when we go back 10 years ago, not only because
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of guidelines, but it's a much more sophisticated business.
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You have to understand the intricacies of the business, but you have to be a much better
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resource to your customer.
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Especially millennials are far more comfortable doing things online, hence this evolution into
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things like rocket mortgage, which we're all familiar with.
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But we really, as mortgage professionals, have to add wisdom and insights because of
9:23
the information everywhere.
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By the time you finish asking someone a question these days, they've already researched the
9:30
answer on their phone, because that's just a way to especially millennial who now have
9:36
become the largest demographic in the United States as of 10 months ago.
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So they're going to be driving the bus and we have to be able to market to them the way
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that they want to be marketed to.
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And they will do that research and then they'll compare shop and they're very comfortable
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with this stuff.
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In fact, younger people that almost lost the art of talking, they're heavily into text
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and things like that.
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It's difficult for people that are like baby boomers like me to fully grasp that, but
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we understand that that's the changing way.
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So what we have to do is not only understand the way they want to be marketed to, but understand
10:08
what's going to differentiate ourselves and protect our business into the future.
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So we can't just provide information.
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It's not good enough to know your God that's going to be good on your business, heck that's
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the price of admission.
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What you really have to do is provide insights and wisdom and knowledge because people will
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pay for that.
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And the reason why they pay for us by giving you their business, giving you referrals
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and doing repeat business with you, if you can teach them something they can't Google,
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if you can give them insights that they can't easily find, if you can do that and blow
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away their competition, especially the online competition, which doesn't provide any of that,
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you'll have a really, really good stronghold of protecting your business and continuing your
10:46
success for a long time into the future.
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Yeah, I've heard it characterizes sell on advice versus price.
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Yeah, but you have to walk here.
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You can't think that anymore.
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You have to really understand things like, what is going on with the local real estate
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market?
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What's going on with the local job market?
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Is this a good time to be a purchaser of a home in that particular market?
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And why?
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Why?
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Not just because I think the market's good.
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What are the demographics?
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What are the birth rates that are going to be happening?
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What's the job situation in that particular market?
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What are affordability levels there?
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If you don't have that information, the competitor does, you're in trouble.
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And then you better be able to articulate the opportunity and you better be able to do
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so in a very concise, well-constructed manner, just guess what, potential home bars going
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out there today and they have a lack of inventory.
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So chances are they're going to sell for a home.
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It's not going to be something that they're more than likely going to be able to have fulfilled
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all of their needs.
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So they're going to settle.
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Then they settle and guess what?
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They've got to pay full price because all their negotiations stripped away from because
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you can't go in the local law for today.
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And then guess what, you pay full price and somebody comes in over that price.
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So now, on a whole, you're settling for, you're paying more than the sellers even asking
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for.
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You're supposed to be happy with that.
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No wonder why people flake out.
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No wonder why when you hear media stories which are incorrectly constructed, people are
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not often times going to go through with that transaction.
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So how do we help the realtor explain the opportunity?
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How do we help the customer keep their eyes focused on the real price down the road by
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being able to correctly and accurately articulate that opportunity and analyze what's going
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on aside from the media garbage that's out there.
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And if you help a realtor do that, your competitors walking in there with a donut, okay?
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You're going to walk in there and help that realtor sell more homes or less more homes.
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You're going to have a great career going forward.
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Okay, so definitely get that.
12:42
I think everybody agrees with that.
12:43
And naturally through this, I think some people are thinking, you know, you talked about
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we've got to provide insights and knowledge.
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It's just not about providing information or even just providing advice.
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So how do we take that then a step further and go deeper?
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How do we really, you know, position that info so that it achieves what you just described?
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Well, I mean, that's the way I kind of lived my whole career and the mortgage business
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was by being able to do that.
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So look, there are tools out there that people could use that are tools of wisdom.
13:11
You have to be sharp on knowing what's going on in the financial world.
13:15
Do the research.
13:17
You have to outwork your competition and certainly we provide tools, you know, but that's obvious
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that we do that.
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If people are accustomed with our tools, they know that.
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If they want to investigate our tools, they certainly can, but you need the right tools.
13:33
You need to stay ahead of your competition and whatever is most comfortable for the loan
13:37
originator, they have to find a way to help the customer see the opportunity in the real
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estate market, help that real estate agent sell the home and do things that their competition
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isn't from a knowledge standpoint.
13:52
How good of a job do you think in general because you see, you interact with a lot of loan
13:55
officers?
13:56
How good of a job generally do you see the, you know, loan officers doing out there to make
14:00
that adjustment?
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Well, I think that, you know, we've got a good crop of loan originators and I think they
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really try the thing if it is is that sometimes we don't know what we don't know, right?
14:11
And maybe they're just not familiar with the fact that they need to understand affordability
14:17
rates and demographics and supply rates and understand the job picture and being able
14:23
to forecast rates of appreciation into the future to articulate the opportunity and get
14:28
this information.
14:29
Certainly, once loan originators eyes are open to it, they're very receptive and they
14:33
want to adopt this way of doing business.
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But it's difficult for those who have not yet been exposed to this.
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Meanwhile, they need to be losing transactions to competitors who are just a little bit
14:45
more sophisticated.
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So, do I think loan originators are doing a good job?
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I think they are doing a good job.
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I think loan originators are so much smarter today in general than, you know, loan originators
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when it was a lot easier to just say here, can you fog up this mirror and you're going
15:01
to get approved?
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You know, so they are doing a good job, however, like anything else, but I'll take myself.
15:08
I can always do better.
15:09
I can always try and learn more.
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I can always try to advance myself.
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I never quit unlearning and try to be better.
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I strive for that every single day.
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I'll never reach that perfection level, but I sure want to try and get better every day.
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And I think that every originator should feel the same way.
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Yeah, I agree with you.
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So, you know, you mentioned technology, you know, the millennials and how they're engaging
15:32
and how they buy and we know that technology is influencing the buying process and, you
15:38
know, you see companies like Quick and Loans, Rocket Mortgage, trying to convince consumers
15:44
that getting a mortgage is a push button away.
15:46
And there's obviously, I think, kind of that expectation, perhaps, that A, mortgages
15:53
should be easier and simpler and perhaps quicker to get.
15:57
So how would you, I'm trying to think of the best question for you in terms of positioning
16:02
against, you know, because there just seems to be with the disruption happening across
16:06
other industries, right?
16:07
Uber, Airbnb, right, those, there's obviously disruption coming, building in different
16:13
ways in the mortgage industry, you could perhaps put Rocket in that category.
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So if consumers are looking, right, let me ask you two ways.
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If one, our consumers are looking for that quicker, easier process and then two, how do
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we sell against that, if you will?
16:30
Well, consumers are looking for it and the disruption is going to continue to be a part of our
16:35
lives forever.
16:37
The thing too about this quick and rocket mortgage, which we point to, but we only point
16:44
to it because it's kind of like the first of its kind that's gone out there in this
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manner.
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It doesn't mean that it's stopping there very soon and a lot more of this is going to
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take place.
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So how does the originator really protect themselves?
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Well, just look at the financial industry and when online trading began for stock brokers,
17:04
a lot of the stock brokers who were there as salespeople, they went by the wayside and
17:10
they had a very difficult time, but it didn't eliminate stock brokers.
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In fact, you can argue that so many of them are doing much better because it's a smaller
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pond and they have a much more sophisticated and deeper relationship with their clients.
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It's going to be the same thing in the mortgage industry that goes right back to the beginning.
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If you're able to quote rates and if you're able to quote products well and if you're
17:32
able to understand guidelines and what it takes to get a lot of proof, that's a necessity.
17:37
It's not a competitive advantage and that can be replaced technologically.
17:43
It's going to be far more difficult to be replaced is that relationship that you have
17:48
where that customer is learning from you and you're able to take in the needs and concerns
17:53
of that customer and help them and you're also able to help that real estate agent articulate
17:58
those opportunities that lie ahead for that home purchaser.
18:01
So you really need to take that approach in my opinion now more than everything.
18:06
It's going to become more and more difficult for those who don't over time and you know
18:09
what?
18:10
Here's the other thing too.
18:11
It's kind of fat with all these refinances that are out there.
18:15
But the refinance environment is it's fickle and it's fragile.
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You do this as I have been around this business.
18:22
I can't believe what I said.
18:23
It's just 30 years.
18:24
Okay.
18:25
30 freaking years.
18:26
Okay.
18:27
I've been in this business.
18:28
Wow.
18:29
So.
18:30
See a doctor.
18:31
Yes.
18:32
Exactly.
18:33
Both old and crazy now.
18:38
So here's the thing is that because I've seen and the people listening are experienced.
18:44
They've seen how fickle the refinance markets are.
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Hey, look, just just all we have to do is go back three years ago, right?
18:50
When everybody was doing so great, so great, so great.
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And then what happened?
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Rates went up very rapidly in a short period of time.
18:57
Companies had difficulty.
18:58
Loan originators had difficulty.
19:00
People were swung away.
19:01
I was just a future in this business for me.
19:03
It caused a lot of struggles relatively quickly and there could be a lot of pain inflicted
19:08
when refinances go away and it doesn't take that much.
19:12
So it's easy to get complacent because we think this will last forever.
19:16
I promise you it won't and I'm not saying rates go to seven percent or six percent.
19:21
All rates have to do is go up three, it's to a half of a percent from here.
19:25
Not a very dramatic move and that could cause a very big difference in the amount of
19:31
refinance transactions that exist, which is why we need to always stay on that purchase
19:36
side.
19:37
In addition to the refinances and focus there, and that's what we're the sharpest.
19:41
That's what we're giving the best advice.
19:42
That's what we're helping to articulate the opportunity to purchase.
19:45
That's what we're helping that real estate agent and being someone that they're going
19:47
to continue to rely on.
19:48
So I keep the focus there.
19:50
Don't give up the refinances.
19:51
Just keep focused on the purchase.
19:53
Yeah, absolutely.
19:54
And obviously as you pointed out, right, let's prepare for the coming shift in the market
20:00
and even Gary Keller at a recent conference was talking about that.
20:04
So let's get your take on this.
20:05
I know you've come out and forecasted an adjustment.
20:10
I'll call it in the market.
20:11
I'll let you describe what you see happening over the next 12 to 24 months.
20:17
Well, I think it's a potential poor recession.
20:19
I think there's a relatively good possibility of recession that's going to occur.
20:23
I think that stock prices are very frothing.
20:28
We've had seven consecutive quarters of declining earnings as measured by the S&P 500.
20:32
This, a stock led recession is certainly possible.
20:37
We're clearly in a recession already in the manufacturing sector throughout the country.
20:43
I think that there is some fragility in the economy.
20:47
We are unable to grow at reasonable rates.
20:50
I mean, our GDP, which may improve a little bit here, but I think it's going to be mostly
20:54
due to an inventory build.
20:56
So it's kind of like a head fake, but it's been hovering just above 1%.
21:01
Could we head into a recession?
21:02
We could have, and what that means is that two things we should bear in mind.
21:06
One is interest rates typically decline rather precipitously during a recession, and yes,
21:11
lower than they are now.
21:12
And if you don't think they can go lower, just look at what's happening around the world.
21:15
40% of interest rates are in negative territory.
21:18
Rates even in the very well-respected area of Germany and the German bone aren't just slightly
21:24
above zero.
21:25
So when you look at our 10-year treasury, about 1.5, that can drop.
21:29
And by the way, when it was at 2.8, and I said it's going to 1.5, actually 1.36, I'm sorry,
21:34
1.39, everybody thought it was nuts on TV.
21:36
Everybody knew it.
21:37
They thought it all thought it was nuts.
21:38
They said, Barry, what are you drinking?
21:39
What are you, whatever?
21:40
If you think that's not going to happen, sure enough, you know, so eight months later.
21:44
But it did happen.
21:46
If we do get this recession, you'll see the 10-year treasury yield a challenge 1%, you'll
21:52
see mortgage rates about 1.5% lower than they are currently.
21:56
I don't think we've seen the low end rates yet, but that does not mean it's a straight
21:59
right now.
22:00
We're going to have some turbulence between now and then.
22:03
So we watch more.
22:04
I think the stock market eventually is going to take a big haircut and that money will
22:10
go into the bond market.
22:12
Does that get triggered by the Fed starting to hike rates later on this year?
22:15
It could very well be.
22:16
Let's not forget what happened to December 16th, but hike by quarter and it really set
22:20
the markets into some turmoil.
22:22
That's just because of here, but that's a little bit deep here, Jeff, but your listeners
22:27
are sophisticated.
22:28
But nobody talks about this.
22:30
The Chinese run in by their currency is pegged to the dollar.
22:34
But when the Fed height rates on December 16th, the Chinese didn't like that wide because
22:39
if they pegged their currency to the dollar which strengthened on a Fed rate height, then
22:43
that hurts their exports.
22:44
They got pissed.
22:45
They de-pecked from the dollar and that really was what set the stock market into a tail
22:50
spoon.
22:51
That's what pushed money into our bond market.
22:54
So could something like that happen?
22:56
Yeah, this is what the Fed struggles with.
22:59
There's a lot that can, it's going to be very turbulent in my opinion.
23:04
We could see, if we hit this recession, we could see really, really low rates, but it's
23:09
not going to be straight down.
23:10
We could certainly see interest rates rise, three eights of a percent or so enough to
23:15
disrupt the refinance activity for a period of time on the way to lower rates.
23:20
Wow.
23:21
Interesting.
23:22
So a little uptick before we get back downward.
23:24
Yeah.
23:25
I think that's quite possible if inflation comes right here is the thing I worry about
23:30
as far as inflation goes.
23:32
One of the big drivers of prices is energy and oil.
23:36
Now we see energy prices have declined dramatically, but when you look at energy on a year
23:41
over year basis, and this is what goes into a lot of the inflation numbers, we were comparing
23:47
oil prices when they're at 20s, high 20s, 30s, now in the 40s to where they were a year
23:54
ago, when they were a 180, 60, so that was downward pressure on inflation.
24:00
By the end of this year, energy prices will probably be higher today or higher at the
24:06
end of this year than where they were in a previous measuring point from a year ago.
24:11
So therefore, that will be upward pressure on inflation, which interest rates don't
24:16
like.
24:17
So we potentially could see some pressure on interest rates because of inflation, which
24:23
has been almost nonexistent because of energy prices, which could cause some turbulence
24:27
there.
24:28
So I think that there's a possibility that it's a quarter or three-eighths push higher.
24:33
We're not going to see six percent interest rates.
24:34
That's not going to happen.
24:35
We're not going to see five percent.
24:37
But could we see four and a quarter on a mortgage rate?
24:39
Yeah.
24:40
And what would that do to your refinance market?
24:42
You know, look at your own pipeline and ask yourself, probably slow things that a lot.
24:45
Yeah.
24:46
So then let's talk about then the impact that that would have on, right, the high
24:49
depreciation that we've seen in certain markets.
24:52
Obviously, we're running into affordability issues as well.
24:55
So would there be an impact there as well on pricing?
24:58
Yeah.
24:59
So look, this is one area we've called really, really well.
25:03
And we were December of 2011 on CNBC and they thought I was pregnant and they didn't
25:08
think the real estate market would come back.
25:09
What they said, you could pull up the segments, the beauty of YouTube and Google, they didn't
25:13
think it would come back until 2015.
25:15
And here I have it just the first guy, December of 2011 saying that the real estate market
25:20
is making a turn here.
25:21
The same tools that we use there, affordability, demographic supply, demand, household
25:27
formations, household creations, those things are still in place today.
25:30
So I really think that the real estate market in general has a lot of legs.
25:33
And if we do have recession, 9 out of the past 10 recessions since World War II, real
25:40
estate has done very well.
25:41
It was already the last recession really led by the housing and mortgage bubble that real
25:46
estate prices didn't do.
25:47
Why do they do well?
25:48
They do well because interest rates drop and that's kind of like a counter-balance.
25:51
They act to help real estate prices, they bully.
25:54
Okay.
25:55
So we know that real estate is very, very local.
25:58
So it's certainly going to be within your specific market.
26:02
As you mentioned, have had hyper appreciation.
26:06
So when you see that double digit, that 10%, 8%, is that sustainable?
26:10
Very, very hard to do.
26:12
One of the things that people point to and sometimes they point to it without a lot of accuracy
26:17
is incomes aren't sustaining that level.
26:20
Well, guess what?
26:21
They don't have to.
26:22
They never have and they never will because there's a specific relationship that people
26:26
forget between income and payment.
26:29
So let's just take a principal and interest payment, not taxes and insurance, principal
26:33
and interest of 1,000 bucks a month.
26:37
Old mortgage professionals listening can probably relate to this and say, you probably
26:41
would see that customer have a $5,000 month income.
26:45
Roughly, that would be okay for a $1,000 month principal and interest.
26:49
Just a bull part number.
26:51
Well, when you have that, if for whatever reason, person was able to purchase a home a year
26:57
ago, a $1,000 month, they didn't, that home went up by 5% and assuming interest rates
27:02
date the same.
27:03
Now that payment goes up by 5%, so instead of 1,000, 1,000 to 50, for this to be net neutral,
27:08
their income has to go up by 50 bucks a month.
27:10
Well, that's not a 5% increase in income, that's a 1% increase in income.
27:14
So if real estate prices go up by 5%, incomes need to go up by 1% to make it net neutral
27:21
so long as interest rates date the same.
27:23
The reason why affordability is so strong is because incomes are rising by right now
27:27
2.6% in the private sector by 4.9%.
27:31
And home prices can actually be a lot stronger than that.
27:36
And interest rates actually have gone down.
27:37
So that's why affordability levels have improved and when you look at some of these areas
27:41
like Silicon Valley and things like that, their income levels are going up much greater
27:45
than that, which is one of the reasons why they can sustain.
27:48
The other thing is, rents are going up by 4% a year.
27:51
So wherever you're going to put a roof over your head, it's expensive and that's helping
27:56
to keep prices sustained at these levels.
27:58
You don't take it too hot for too long, but we do not see any bubble-like conditions
28:03
for them.
28:04
Okay, so when you say recession over the next, at some point, some level over the next
28:09
24 months, can you get a little bit more specific in terms of, because some people hear
28:14
recession and they freak out.
28:16
So what do you mean by recession?
28:19
What I mean by recession is you have growth on GDP decline for two consecutive quarters.
28:25
So instead of GDP growing, you have negative numbers.
28:29
So GDP declines, I should say, for two consecutive quarters.
28:32
Now that decline in GDP is oftentimes accompanied by stock market declines.
28:38
It typically shows an if-outtick in unemployment, but unemployment is kind of tight right now.
28:43
So I don't think for most people, it's going to be devastating, but it should help to
28:47
push interest rates lower.
28:49
The other aspect of it is that where is the best place to be if there's recession?
28:53
Well, in the industry that we're all in is the mortgage business because the mortgage
28:56
industry flourishes during recessionary periods because home prices, I'm sorry, yeah,
29:01
home prices in the housing market tends to hold up pretty well, but because interest rates
29:07
decline is typically an uptick in activity, in refinances, because people really are now
29:13
focused on reducing their monthly payments, making cuts, consolidating, and they're
29:18
able to do a lot more refinance business in that type of environment.
29:21
So it's a great place to be if there's a recession.
29:25
So I don't think it will be a deep part of recession.
29:28
Interesting.
29:29
And of course, a conversation about impact to the markets wouldn't be relevant at the
29:33
timing of this recording if we didn't talk about the impact of the upcoming election.
29:39
I was going to put you on the spot and say, hey, they're your Trump, but I'm not going
29:42
to do that.
29:43
Here's what I will say, we'll say that a country with 320 million people, is this really
29:49
the best we could produce?
29:51
Exactly.
29:52
How frustrating is that?
29:54
Yeah, it is.
29:55
It is.
29:56
Maybe there's something wrong with our system.
29:58
Maybe it's just this over scrutiny, you know, look, we're all human beings.
30:01
We all screw up.
30:02
I mean, I think the people should be taped.
30:07
First of all, I remember these are human beings, and then you got to look at the character
30:11
and look, I'm not going to get into the political side of it on here.
30:14
You know, I have my own personal opinions, but I will tell you that, you know, there's
30:19
probably a lot, a lot of things that we could look at here and there's probably a lot
30:23
better candidates on both sides that could be there.
30:26
Well, you mentioned something earlier about China getting pissed off with stuff that we
30:31
were doing with our dollar.
30:32
And of course, you're Trump talking about them devaluing the currency.
30:35
So is that an accurate statement by him?
30:38
They have been to a great extent manipulating the currency.
30:41
He just kind of has the guts to say it.
30:44
And maybe he should be a bit more diplomatic about it.
30:46
I think there's kind of a middle road there.
30:49
You don't have to be as, you know, abrasive.
30:52
Yeah.
30:53
Look, here's the thing with Trump that is just by my humble opinion here is that I think
30:58
he's got a lot of really good ideas.
31:00
The problem is he lives in an area of rhetoric and the media, which maybe people agree, maybe
31:08
some people might think there's a more liberal bias in the media.
31:13
If that is the case, they're going to nitpick on a lot of that.
31:16
It's like me saying to you, Jeff, you know, Jeff, I tried to call that guy a million times,
31:20
you know, and look, that's the world of rhetoric.
31:23
I didn't really call him a million times, but does that mean a bad person?
31:26
I'm a liar.
31:27
No, it's just the things we say, unfortunately, under the scrutiny of things Trump is saying
31:34
like this, and it's really being nitpicked.
31:37
I mean, maybe it's justified that he shouldn't say a lot of the things he says, and you cringe
31:41
when you hear it.
31:42
Yeah.
31:43
But, you know, on the other side of things, you know, boy, oh, boy, there's a lot to look
31:46
at on what Henry Clinton's done, which isn't exactly nice things or accurate things,
31:53
or truthful things, you know, it's been proven as well.
31:57
So, I think both of them have some issues.
32:00
Now, what happens if either one wins, it's an important question.
32:04
But finish your question first.
32:05
No, no, no, I was just going to say, I like your question better, but I think the problem
32:09
is it's a tough choice because, you know, there's nowadays it's so hard, especially when
32:15
you've got the media, which is, I think, liberal in nature, and depends on which network
32:19
you watch, you know, they're going to sway your, I think you have to be much more cognizant
32:24
of the source of the information nowadays, because it's hard to separate the truth from
32:29
fiction, you know, and that's the tough part.
32:32
People will believe sound bites, and I think that's where people get mixed up.
32:36
You nailed it.
32:37
You're 100% nailed it, and those sound bites are going to be positioned, let's just say,
32:42
by whatever the source is.
32:44
But to the better question, yeah.
32:46
So, the impact to if one of the other gets in.
32:49
Well, if Trump gets in, I think that there will certainly be a lean towards a little
32:55
bit more entrepreneurial shift and business being under a little bit less regulation, not
33:01
too much, but a little bit less.
33:03
Under Hillary Clinton, I think we can see a lot more regulation and a lot, a lot of the
33:08
same things that you've seen.
33:10
Now, look, regulation in itself isn't a bad thing, but boy, boy, let me look at our industry,
33:16
I mean, what a role compliance has taken over, and how much of a cost is that ultimately
33:21
to the customer and to business for a lot of these things that we all know is just a
33:25
bit of overkill.
33:26
I mean, it's just this, you know, so when we look at these things and we say, how do we really
33:33
improve this economy?
33:34
I'll give you my two cents.
33:37
There's something called velocity of money.
33:40
And velocity of money is something that I think is not discussed often enough, but I think
33:46
it really holds the key to jumpstarting and fixing our economy.
33:51
It really goes back to what made this country do so well for so long.
33:56
And I think that that's been kind of strangled a bit.
33:59
And here's what I mean by velocity of money.
34:01
Let's take an example.
34:02
Let's say a young individual goes out and they take out a car loan and that car loan
34:09
winds up costing them, I don't know, I'm going to pick some numbers here.
34:13
It's a $30,000 car loan and it winds up costing them $400 bucks a month.
34:18
Now if they just go out and drive that car and have a good time and this and that, well
34:24
good for them, but now that's $400 a month less that they have to put into the economy.
34:30
But what if that individual said, you know what I'm going to do?
34:33
I'm going to work part of the time for Uber or Lyft or whatever.
34:38
Now they actually have an income of $2,000 bucks a month from doing that driving part time.
34:47
So they pay their $400 debt on the car, but now they've got an extra $1,600 that they
34:54
go and buy goods and services with.
34:56
That's the entrepreneurial spirit that we need more of.
34:59
That's what fixes the country.
35:02
If entrepreneurs are appraised, if businesses are treated a little bit nicer, let's just
35:09
say potentially, potentially.
35:12
We could have more of that and boy, I think that that would be the magic formula to really
35:17
get this country at a much higher level of GDP and production and wealth than we've seen
35:23
lately.
35:24
Yeah, and so, you know, now is, I don't know if your thought is on this, but now is probably
35:32
a better time than perhaps in the history of this country to pursue those entrepreneurial
35:38
activities.
35:39
Would you agree?
35:40
Completely agree.
35:41
Technology has made all these things possible, but we've taken this wonderful technology
35:48
and we've tried so hard to bottle it and rate it in and struggle it that we should be
35:54
unleashing it to some degree.
35:56
Look, the world is a perilous place and everybody shouldn't be wet nurse, okay?
36:02
Everybody shouldn't have, you know, training wheels on forever.
36:05
The buyer needs to make smarter choices and decisions and let business for the most
36:10
part, look, look at the mortgage industry, it's like any other industry.
36:13
We know there's a few bad actors, but for the most part, mortgage people are really good
36:18
people.
36:19
They're honest.
36:20
They care about their reputation.
36:21
They care about their customers.
36:22
And there's some bad folks out there that do bad things, but that's everywhere.
36:27
And guess what?
36:28
When you make all these over-regulation rules, the bad guys still break them anyway because
36:33
they don't care.
36:34
You're making all these bad rules, all these rules for bad people, but only the good people
36:39
follow them and it just strangle some of them and they were doing it anyway, so it can
36:44
be a bit frustrating to watch.
36:46
That's a can.
36:47
And then, of course, I know you are, however, a believer in the entrepreneurial spirit
36:51
in this country and that, you know, we may go through some tough times, we may, you know,
36:57
experience some valleys, but we always bounce back and figure out a way to keep improving
37:02
and evolving.
37:03
Absolutely.
37:04
Yes, we started with, I mean, we're very, very resilient, but you can't just always
37:10
count on that.
37:11
I mean, you can't say, oh, we've got to kind of keep working on that, too, you know?
37:14
So yes, I have faith in it, but I hope that people really, really believe in that and
37:20
really strive for it instead of saying, I have faith in it, so it will be okay.
37:24
Well, the thing I'm fearful of is, you know, the powers that be trying to take away that
37:33
entrepreneurial spirit and try and hand everything to, oh, you know, free college education, right?
37:37
Okay.
37:38
That's not going to happen or if it is who's going to pay for that, but it's, you know,
37:41
you've gotten a bit away from our roots of us being, yes, self-reliant, and that's
37:45
what America was built on, and then, you know, people want that, but yeah, if you put too
37:49
many barriers in the way, you know, then people are going to be, you know, less inclined
37:53
to pursue that.
37:54
I completely agree with you, Jeff.
37:56
I think that's a very, very reasonable foot process, and if you take it out over time,
38:01
I mean, just look at any socialist country out there, they're all struggling.
38:06
I mean, if you want to see how great, yeah, see, if you want, or anywhere, if you want
38:10
to see how great America is, talk to somebody who's come from a socialist country, who's
38:14
here.
38:15
They'll all look at you and say, what are you guys nuts?
38:17
We just left all that and you're heading towards that.
38:19
Why would you possibly want to do it?
38:21
I mean, so we lose side of these things that you're bringing into life here.
38:26
Absolutely.
38:27
And let's bring it back full circle because we can go on and on about that.
38:30
Speaking of, you know, technology and tools that are available to help us, do me a favor
38:34
if you wouldn't mind.
38:35
Just take a moment and tell our listeners about MBS Highway and how does that help an
38:40
originator better position themselves in today's market?
38:43
Well, thank you.
38:44
I'll be very brief.
38:45
Look, weekly help you build an improving, vatting average.
38:48
What does that mean?
38:49
If you talk to 10 borrowers, we'll help you turn more of those into transactions.
38:53
If you talk to 10 realtors, we will help you dramatically increase those, the amount
38:58
of those realtors who actually wind up sending your referrals.
39:01
We make it easy.
39:02
We make it simple.
39:03
This is not something that's hard to implement, hard to use.
39:05
I was originated for a lot of years.
39:06
This is a natural compliment that doesn't take away from what you do, but just as a natural
39:11
assistant into what you do, better pricing executions, better marketing, better co-branding
39:16
tools, help the realtors sell the home, help the realtors list the home, and give you insights
39:20
and training in five minutes of coaching for me every day by video.
39:24
So that every day you've got something to say, pick up the phone and some interesting
39:27
sales techniques and tools that you could use.
39:30
Try it for free.
39:31
It's great.
39:32
If you don't like it, understand.
39:33
It's got nothing to lose and just a whole lot more income and happy clients to gain.
39:38
Yeah.
39:39
Well, if anybody knows you followed you for some time, we know that you definitely put
39:42
together a quality program, so I can definitely vouch for that having used your various services
39:48
throughout the years.
39:49
So what's the best place to direct people, too?
39:51
Is it MBShighway.com?
39:52
Perfect.
39:53
MBShighway.com.
39:54
Hey, if you need to ask me a question or if you'd like to say hi, it's Barry at Barry
39:58
Habib.com.
39:59
I asked her all my emails personally, so you'll feel free if I could be of help.
40:04
That's what it's all about.
40:05
It's all about giving and helping others.
40:07
Those people who get it in this world know what's about giving.
40:10
Oh, absolutely.
40:11
Be a go-giver, not a go-taker, right?
40:13
That's right.
40:14
All right.
40:15
So I'm going to wrap it up with what I'm now calling, I guess, the lightning round.
40:19
Three quick questions for you.
40:20
Number one, business leaders CEO that you're following.
40:25
Jeez.
40:26
That's a hard one because there's...
40:28
Who pops into your head first?
40:30
You know, I always like Jack Welsh, you know, you know, he's kind of sorry, but go ahead.
40:35
No, no, good one.
40:36
Do you have a favorite business book?
40:42
How the light was statistics?
40:45
How the light was statistics?
40:47
There's one that I haven't read.
40:51
Some good reading there.
40:52
All right.
40:53
Lastly, this is one I didn't prep you for, so let's take you back a number of years.
40:59
I wasn't prepped on any of these.
41:00
Hey, you know, that's the best thing.
41:01
We're flying live without a net.
41:04
Take us back real quickly to your 20-year-old self.
41:08
What advice would you give to your 20-year-old self?
41:10
Trust your gut.
41:11
Trust your gut and don't talk yourself out of ideas.
41:15
You have an idea on it.
41:16
Oh, this is going to be good.
41:17
This is going to be really good.
41:18
Get excited about the next one.
41:19
Then I'm not going to do that.
41:21
Don't do that.
41:22
Okay?
41:23
Trust your gut and go for it.
41:24
Just go for it.
41:25
Go for the opportunities.
41:26
Okay, go for it.
41:28
Great advice.
41:29
Thank you, Barry Habib.
41:30
It's an honor.
41:31
Once again, check out mbshighway.com for more info there.
41:35
I can't thank you enough, Barry, for being here.
41:37
Oh, thank you.
41:38
You're a pleasure.
41:39
Thank you so much.
41:40
May you do a great job.
41:41
I really appreciate you.
41:42
All right.
41:43
And listeners, once again, if you haven't subscribed yet, please do so on iTunes.
41:45
Give us a podcast rating so you don't miss out on future episodes, and I appreciate
41:50
you.
41:51
So thanks for listening to Mortgage Marketing Radio.
41:54
We'll see you on the next one, bye for now.
41:56
Thanks for listening to Mortgage Marketing Radio.
41:59
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