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What Share Market Dips Do to Your Brain... and What History Says is Coming Next · She's On The Money

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Speaker 1: Hello.
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Speaker 2: My name is Satasha Nabananga Bamblet. I'm a proud or
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Speaker 2: the Order Kerni Whaltbury and a waddery woman. And before
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Speaker 2: we get started on She's on the Money podcast, I
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Speaker 2: would like to acknowledge the traditional custodians of the land
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Speaker 2: of which this podcast is recorded on a wondery country,
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Speaker 2: acknowledging the elders, the ancestors and the next generation coming
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Speaker 2: through as this podcast is about connecting, empowering, knowledge sharing
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Speaker 2: and the storytelling of you to make a difference for
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Speaker 2: today and lasting impact for tomorrow.
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Speaker 1: Let's get into it. She's on the Money, She's on
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Speaker 1: the Money.
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Speaker 3: Hello, and welcome to She's on the Money, the podcast
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Speaker 3: that keeps your investments growing and your stress levels low
1:02
Speaker 3: even when your portfolio is more red than your ex's flags.
1:06
Speaker 1: I'm beck you'r is it in investing?
1:07
Speaker 3: Newbie who's got a bunch of questions and a lot
1:10
Speaker 3: of feelings about what the market's doing right now? You're
1:13
Speaker 3: probably the same, I imagine. So I just sit down with
1:15
Speaker 3: the woman who has seen it all before and live
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Speaker 3: to tell the tale. Victory Divine retired financial advisor, long
1:22
Speaker 3: time investor and someone who doesn't panic when the market dips.
1:25
Speaker 1: I'm feel sick when the market dips, though I'm not
1:27
Speaker 1: gonna feel sick, a little bit sick. I don't think
1:30
Speaker 1: anybody likes seeing that the quote lost some money, right,
1:34
Speaker 1: and I know that that's not the case. But like,
1:36
Speaker 1: find me someone who logs into their investment platform and goes, oh,
1:41
Speaker 1: it's in the red perfect great, Well, actually this like
1:44
Speaker 1: what I mean, I do reframe it. I'm like, okay,
1:46
Speaker 1: well that is actually an opportunity. Maybe I'll tip some
1:48
Speaker 1: more money. Yes, I get it, but even I have
1:50
Speaker 1: to check myself.
1:51
Speaker 3: And be like ill, And then I'm like, oh, right,
1:54
Speaker 3: Like at what point do we stop tipping money into it?
1:57
Speaker 1: Because I was doing the same.
1:58
Speaker 3: I was like, oh, it's gone down, maybe i'll But
2:00
Speaker 3: then I don't know where it's coming from because I've
2:01
Speaker 3: got so many things and I don't.
2:02
Speaker 1: Know how to read my portfolio. But true, it's true.
2:05
Speaker 1: Well we're going to talk about it today, but before
2:07
Speaker 1: we get into it, I do want to like, is
2:09
Speaker 1: it called time stamping or you tell people the day
2:12
Speaker 1: that you're recording this. Oh yeah, so we're going to
2:14
Speaker 1: timestamp this episode because we are recording this on the
2:18
Speaker 1: eve of what Trump has dramatically dubbed Liberation Day. Wow.
2:23
Speaker 1: So he is making in the next twenty four hours
2:26
Speaker 1: from when we're recording this a very big announcement where
2:31
Speaker 1: he's going to potentially announce a whole heap of like
2:34
Speaker 1: a new round of tariff information and so that will
2:38
Speaker 1: actually significantly impact the economy. So right now we're talking
2:41
Speaker 1: about what has happened, and you know, I'm going to
2:44
Speaker 1: talk about Trump's new tariffs when they come in, but
2:47
Speaker 1: we don't have that information right now. But I didn't
2:49
Speaker 1: want to like hold off on this episode to wait
2:52
Speaker 1: for more information. So we'll talk about it and then
2:54
Speaker 1: we'll probably talk about it again. But I don't want
2:56
Speaker 1: you to think, oh, VS not taking into consideration X,
2:59
Speaker 1: Y and Z babies because I don't live in the future.
3:02
Speaker 1: I would love that, but it's so fair. Yeah, So
3:05
Speaker 1: some of what I'm about to say might actually already
3:09
Speaker 1: be playing out. And if so, guys, I am the oracle,
3:14
Speaker 1: Like you can refer to me as the oracle. If
3:16
Speaker 1: it's not playing out, pretend you never heard this, Like,
3:19
Speaker 1: we are not living in the in between. So Trump
3:22
Speaker 1: might have actually changed his mind entirely and just called
3:25
Speaker 1: the whole thing off because that's actually an option for him,
3:28
Speaker 1: and it wouldn't be the first time. It wouldn't shock
3:31
Speaker 1: me because remember when he was like, oh, TikTok ban whatever,
3:33
Speaker 1: We'll just not do that anymore. Yeah, just his rogue. Honestly,
3:39
Speaker 1: there's something about American politics that just cheeks me hooked.
3:44
Speaker 1: It's like watching reality TV. For me is like I'm obsessed,
3:48
Speaker 1: it is. But I think it's really important that at
3:51
Speaker 1: the time of recording, there has been over the last
3:55
Speaker 1: few weeks a lot of global uncertainty swirling around and
4:00
Speaker 1: it's hitting investor confidence, like I'm seeing it in our
4:03
Speaker 1: community a lot a lot of people are asking, what's
4:05
Speaker 1: going on? Why are the market's down, Victoria, how does
4:09
Speaker 1: this work? So Wall Street, which is the American ASX,
4:13
Speaker 1: has been sliding for weeks, and the ripple effect has
4:16
Speaker 1: definitely already made its way to Australia, and so we
4:20
Speaker 1: are starting to see that the changes in Australia are
4:24
Speaker 1: not nearly as dramatic as America, but that is usually
4:27
Speaker 1: what happens. So something big will happen in the US,
4:30
Speaker 1: their share market plummets, ours will dip, so like we
4:34
Speaker 1: are often replicating the American markets, but in a softer way,
4:39
Speaker 1: I would say, And that usually happens because the Australian
4:42
Speaker 1: economy is held up in a different way than the American.
4:45
Speaker 1: But when it comes to confidence, Beck, if you see
4:48
Speaker 1: your American friend going through something, you're probably going to
4:51
Speaker 1: get a bit worried too, right, or I've always been
4:53
Speaker 1: confused by this because I know people do say that,
4:56
Speaker 1: like it's like the American I didn't really understand it.
4:59
Speaker 1: So forgive me if I'm but the American dollars week
5:01
Speaker 1: so the Australian dollar, Like I've just never understood the
5:05
Speaker 1: link there because there's trade agreements between the countries I see.
5:09
Speaker 1: And ultimately, when we're talking about investor sentiment, we are
5:14
Speaker 1: talking about how confident someone is in something. Right, So
5:18
Speaker 1: if you're seeing your friends and right now, we are
5:21
Speaker 1: seeing a lot of what is happening in America translating
5:24
Speaker 1: to Australia much quicker than it has historically because of
5:27
Speaker 1: social media, because you're able to learn much quicker what's
5:32
Speaker 1: going on in the US and get really worried about
5:34
Speaker 1: it like historically, Beck, I'm just going to make a
5:38
Speaker 1: broad brush stereotypical statement. I'm pretty sure you're not sitting
5:41
Speaker 1: down every morning with the newspaper reading through all of
5:45
Speaker 1: the information about the economy. That's correct. No, so you're
5:49
Speaker 1: not doing that, But historically that's how you would have
5:51
Speaker 1: gained your information on what's going on economically. Now you
5:56
Speaker 1: jump on TikTok and people are like, what the hell
5:59
Speaker 1: Trump's tear marfs are crazy, and you're like, oh, wow,
6:01
Speaker 1: that is crazy. I wonder how that impacts me, and
6:04
Speaker 1: your confidence is going to be knocked. So Australia is
6:08
Speaker 1: responding a lot quicker to what's going on in the
6:11
Speaker 1: US because our confidence gets knocked whenever we think that
6:14
Speaker 1: there's something negative going on with money. Sure, so it's
6:17
Speaker 1: not to say that that means that we are significantly impacted.
6:22
Speaker 1: I don't know what these tariffs are going to mean
6:25
Speaker 1: for US, but it does mean that, you know, I
6:28
Speaker 1: get a bit worried when I see what's going on
6:29
Speaker 1: in the US. I go, oh, well, what does that
6:32
Speaker 1: mean for me? What does that mean for my investment portfolio?
6:35
Speaker 1: I own international shares, my international company is okay, and
6:40
Speaker 1: you know when that happens, I go, oh, maybe I'll
6:42
Speaker 1: just hold off and investing for a little while, and
6:44
Speaker 1: if lots of people do that, the market goes down. Yes,
6:49
Speaker 1: So that's kind of like I'm not saying that that's
6:51
Speaker 1: the only way they're linked, but in the way that
6:53
Speaker 1: you're talking, that is how they're linked. Okay, But ultimately,
6:57
Speaker 1: investors are worried that Trump is going to spark a
7:02
Speaker 1: trade war, which is terrifying, and that typically means slower
7:07
Speaker 1: global growth. It means that there are going to be
7:10
Speaker 1: higher costs and more pressure on company earnings. And when
7:14
Speaker 1: the US is a little bit wobbly on its feet,
7:17
Speaker 1: especially inspectors lack tech and manufacturing and commodities. Australia tends
7:23
Speaker 1: to feel that too because we trade with them on
7:25
Speaker 1: those things and also Beck to put into the middle
7:29
Speaker 1: of this. Yesterday, the RBA has decided to hold interest rates,
7:34
Speaker 1: which I wasn't surprised about. A lot of people were
7:37
Speaker 1: asking MeV do you think that they are going to
7:39
Speaker 1: drop interest rates again or do you think that they
7:41
Speaker 1: are going to increase them. No, I just thought that
7:43
Speaker 1: they were going to hold because we just want to
7:45
Speaker 1: see what's going on with the economy for a little
7:47
Speaker 1: bit longer. The RBA are being quite cautious, and they've
7:51
Speaker 1: only just started cutting rates, right, they can't just set
7:54
Speaker 1: the expectation that they'll do this every month because the
7:58
Speaker 1: economy might get too confident that we need to just
8:01
Speaker 1: slow and steady wins the race, and they don't want
8:04
Speaker 1: to jump the gun with another move until there's a
8:06
Speaker 1: little bit more clarity on what this means for inflation
8:10
Speaker 1: and spending and the Australian's economy in a broader sense.
8:14
Speaker 1: So right now, I would say, and I feel like
8:17
Speaker 1: I'm just waffling. I hope it's interesting, but right now
8:21
Speaker 1: I would say the market is a little bit on edge.
8:23
Speaker 1: We're not panicked, but we're definitely a little bit nervous,
8:26
Speaker 1: like we're being a little bit more cautious. And as always,
8:30
Speaker 1: whenever anybody is uncertain, that actually leads to volatility in
8:35
Speaker 1: the market. So volatility is I feel like it's a
8:38
Speaker 1: very fancy word for just saying that the market goes
8:41
Speaker 1: up and down, Like volatility is how quickly it ebbs
8:44
Speaker 1: and it flows. But in saying that, at the time
8:47
Speaker 1: of recording, investors are we're just waiting to see what
8:50
Speaker 1: Liberation Day brings. Okay, I'm just so interested to know
8:55
Speaker 1: what they hell Trump? Like, why why does that have
8:58
Speaker 1: to be called Liberation Day? Trump?
8:59
Speaker 3: It's very It's so, I know it does sound very,
9:02
Speaker 3: very scary. So I've been hearing the word correction thrown around,
9:07
Speaker 3: yes lately, and I think I know what it means,
9:09
Speaker 3: but also like, I don't really at all. That's okay,
9:13
Speaker 3: it's just a fancy way of saying the market's crashing.
9:16
Speaker 1: No, a market correction is not necessarily a crash, but
9:22
Speaker 1: a market correction happens when the share market drops by
9:25
Speaker 1: ten to twenty percent from its most recent peak, so
9:30
Speaker 1: not from what it is today, from what its most
9:32
Speaker 1: recent peak is, and we know that it's already heading
9:35
Speaker 1: downwards at the moment, and to contextualize that a little
9:38
Speaker 1: bit more, the market's going down, Yes, but in your lifetime, Beck,
9:43
Speaker 1: this is going to happen seven times. And if we
9:46
Speaker 1: look back at history and go, well, what happened in
9:49
Speaker 1: previous market crashes, we know that the market has gone
9:52
Speaker 1: down and then it's gone back up and some so
9:55
Speaker 1: we do not have experience where the market has crashed
10:00
Speaker 1: and it stays crashed, right, And I think that that's
10:02
Speaker 1: good to understand here, because I think a lot of
10:05
Speaker 1: the time we go, well, what does it mean if
10:06
Speaker 1: the market crashes, are not going to lose all my money? Yes,
10:09
Speaker 1: you will lose all your money if you take it
10:11
Speaker 1: out of your investment portfolio and accept the lower amount
10:14
Speaker 1: that your portfolio is currently valued at. But if you
10:17
Speaker 1: stayed invested and waited until it crept back up, long
10:21
Speaker 1: term investors are winners. So back to correction. A correction
10:26
Speaker 1: is or it's called a correction because it's basically the
10:30
Speaker 1: market giving itself like a little bit of a reset.
10:33
Speaker 1: I would say, it's kind of like, well, maybe we
10:36
Speaker 1: got a little bit of ahead of ourselves, Like maybe
10:38
Speaker 1: we got a little bit too confident. We're going to
10:40
Speaker 1: peg ourselves back a little bit. And that's not necessarily
10:44
Speaker 1: a bad thing. So both the SMP five hundred in
10:46
Speaker 1: the US, which is essentially the top five hundred companies
10:49
Speaker 1: in the US, and the ASX here in Australia have
10:52
Speaker 1: dropped into correction territory this month. So if you're seeing
10:55
Speaker 1: that on the news and people are talking about a
10:57
Speaker 1: market correction, that's essentially what's happened. There has been a
11:00
Speaker 1: peak and it's a minimum of ten percent down. That's
11:04
Speaker 1: all that means, so what does that mean? At the moment,
11:08
Speaker 1: we're seeing hopeful his short term volatility play out across
11:11
Speaker 1: global markets corrections. I think that they feel very uncomfortable
11:16
Speaker 1: because you've logged into your investment portfolio, Like Beck, if
11:18
Speaker 1: you logged into Charesis right now, I can always guarantee yeap,
11:21
Speaker 1: she's gone down. She's gone down. Does that feel good? No,
11:24
Speaker 1: it's scary. I've been. I think it's really comforting to know.
11:27
Speaker 1: It's really comforting to talk about how these things actually
11:31
Speaker 1: happen quite often. And like, yes, your portfolio right now, Beck,
11:35
Speaker 1: it's valued at less. That doesn't feel good only if
11:38
Speaker 1: you yes, exactly. I have taught you everything. But at
11:42
Speaker 1: the moment, it doesn't feel good. But it means that
11:45
Speaker 1: we can ride it out and it's going to come
11:48
Speaker 1: back up. How good is that to know? Because you're
11:51
Speaker 1: not accepting a loss, and so many of us, if
11:53
Speaker 1: we don't have that level of education or that level
11:56
Speaker 1: of confidence in understanding investing, we kind of week out
12:00
Speaker 1: and go, I'm just going to take my money out.
12:01
Speaker 1: I feel like I've lost enough. I don't want to
12:04
Speaker 1: lose more. But you're accepting less. In this house, Beck,
12:08
Speaker 1: we don't accept less in any part of our life,
12:10
Speaker 1: do we know, especially when it comes to investing. Yeah, so,
12:14
Speaker 1: on average, sorry to tell you this, a correction is
12:17
Speaker 1: going to happen on average about every two years. Okay, well, David,
12:21
Speaker 1: it's not a sign that something in our system is broken,
12:25
Speaker 1: but rather the market's just do and what the market does,
12:28
Speaker 1: And that doesn't mean it's always exciting.
12:30
Speaker 3: It's just moving in cycles, absolutely, and she's free to
12:34
Speaker 3: go up and down exactly.
12:35
Speaker 1: Bet. Corrections are part of how market cycles work. I
12:38
Speaker 1: think they're uncomfortable, yes, but they are totally normal. And look,
12:43
Speaker 1: after the break, we're going to talk about some of
12:44
Speaker 1: the biggest market dips in history, and what happened next
12:48
Speaker 1: might actually surprise you a little bit, Beck, So stick around, guys,
12:56
Speaker 1: welcome back. We are talking share market dips. But I
12:59
Speaker 1: promise we are here to stress you out. In fact,
13:02
Speaker 1: history gives us a lot of reasons to stay calm
13:04
Speaker 1: when the market actually gets a little bit scary. So
13:08
Speaker 1: I'm hearing a lot of terms.
13:09
Speaker 3: Yes, they're actually familiar to me in my community, but
13:12
Speaker 3: for different reasons.
13:13
Speaker 1: Right bear, oh market, Yeah, we've really we've reframed that.
13:18
Speaker 1: I don't say peg before too. Bear market is nothing
13:22
Speaker 1: like what it is to you, Okay, yeah, and I
13:25
Speaker 1: mean they're exciting. Yeah, like that's all good, that's all
13:28
Speaker 1: good for you. It's exciting. I mean a bear market
13:31
Speaker 1: in terms of the investment world is not. I mean
13:34
Speaker 1: it maybe is just like hibernating, like big, warm, hug
13:39
Speaker 1: maybe gorgeous. Yeah, okay, Like let's try and reframe that.
13:41
Speaker 2: Right.
13:42
Speaker 1: So there's a bear market and there's a bull market. Right,
13:45
Speaker 1: So a bull market, if you think of the characteristics
13:48
Speaker 1: of a bull, A bull is an aggressive animal. It
13:51
Speaker 1: charges it a red flag. It's going up. A bear market,
13:56
Speaker 1: it's like hibernation. Sleep here, we're going We're going to
14:01
Speaker 1: go backwards. Yeah, so that we can come out of
14:03
Speaker 1: this well rested. Right, So, a bear market is definitely
14:08
Speaker 1: the more dramatic cousin of a correction, you could say,
14:11
Speaker 1: so like you have a correction before you have a
14:14
Speaker 1: bear market. Essentially, a bear market is when the market
14:18
Speaker 1: falls by twenty percent or more from a recent high
14:22
Speaker 1: and it tends to stick around for a while. We're
14:25
Speaker 1: talking months. It can even stick around for years or
14:28
Speaker 1: even a couple of years, depending on what's driving it.
14:31
Speaker 1: Like the global financial crisis, bear market COVID bit of
14:36
Speaker 1: a bear market. Bear markets usually come with what do
14:39
Speaker 1: you say, like broader economic issues, things like rising unemployment,
14:44
Speaker 1: slower growth, or bigger global shocks. So they're more than
14:48
Speaker 1: just like a bit of volatility or like a little
14:50
Speaker 1: bit of a dip. They're actually a deeper downturn that
14:53
Speaker 1: takes much longer to recover from. So slight. Yeah, And
14:57
Speaker 1: I like to think of the bear as kind of
14:59
Speaker 1: like the market's going into hibernation mode because that feels
15:02
Speaker 1: much more comfortable than saying it's dropped to pick. So
15:06
Speaker 1: I'm like, all right, yeah, it's red, but it's in hibernation.
15:09
Speaker 1: Now's the time. What do you do in hibernation? You stockpile,
15:13
Speaker 1: you save all your nuts. Get cozy. Yeah, you get cozy,
15:16
Speaker 1: You get comfy, You do what you need to do
15:18
Speaker 1: because you're going to come out of hibernation at some point,
15:21
Speaker 1: right like some's coming baby.
15:22
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, you're going to come out fresh as a daisy,
15:25
Speaker 3: ready to tackle the world.
15:26
Speaker 1: So very different to what it means in your community. Yes,
15:29
Speaker 1: so the ASX has dropped, but at this point in time,
15:33
Speaker 1: not enough for us to say that we're currently in
15:35
Speaker 1: a bear market. Okay, okay, got you, but I'll let
15:38
Speaker 1: you know if we are in a bear market, thank you.
15:40
Speaker 1: We'll be making a lot of bear content, but apparently
15:42
Speaker 1: not the type of bear content you're into. A haha.
15:45
Speaker 4: We could do both. I'm sure we could try and collab.
15:47
Speaker 4: We could collab. I think we'd be good at this.
15:50
Speaker 4: You let me know how you think that's going to work. Yes,
15:53
Speaker 4: I'll do, or I'll come to you with some draft ideas.
15:55
Speaker 4: So I get the sense of the media's kind of
15:57
Speaker 4: like just to be safe, being maybe.
15:59
Speaker 1: A little bit dream Oh, they're so dramatic. When media dramatic,
16:03
Speaker 1: it's truebody cares when your share portfolios just bopping along? Yeah,
16:08
Speaker 1: were you going to put that on the front page
16:09
Speaker 1: of the newspaper? Share portfolio performance expected, Like, oh great,
16:15
Speaker 1: no worries. Financial advisor was correct, Like how they are
16:21
Speaker 1: at least at the time of US recording. And honestly,
16:25
Speaker 1: they love to cause a little bit of panic. I've
16:27
Speaker 1: spoken to you guys about the emotional journey of investing
16:30
Speaker 1: before at the peak, like when people are like, it's
16:33
Speaker 1: like Bitcoin, My favorite example is Bitcoin. Remember when people
16:37
Speaker 1: were like, if you're not investing in bitcoin, you're an idiot, like,
16:41
Speaker 1: and every man in his dog was like investing in bitcoin,
16:44
Speaker 1: and then you had fomo oh yeah, because everyone was
16:47
Speaker 1: doing it but you and you thought you were going
16:48
Speaker 1: to miss out. But that's actually the point in time
16:51
Speaker 1: that is maximum risk. And then on the opposite of that,
16:55
Speaker 1: when people are being really dramatic and they're like, the
16:57
Speaker 1: stock market sucks, great, that might actually be an opportunity
17:01
Speaker 1: for me to invest, because you're trying to knock my confidence.
17:04
Speaker 1: And when you're trying to knock my confidence, you are
17:07
Speaker 1: being successful with a number of people, which means they're
17:10
Speaker 1: not investing, which means maybe I've got an opportunity to
17:12
Speaker 1: buy some discount shares right, love to see it. Yeah,
17:16
Speaker 1: keep on being dramatic market, and keep on being dramatic media,
17:20
Speaker 1: because I actually love when my shares are undervalued because
17:25
Speaker 1: I'm stocking up for winter baby. Oh yeah, we're reaping
17:27
Speaker 1: the rule war exactly. So this is where if we
17:30
Speaker 1: look at history we can kind of like help calm
17:33
Speaker 1: the panic. Because every bear market we've ever been through, Yeah,
17:37
Speaker 1: twenty percent drop sounds like it sucks, but we've always recovered.
17:41
Speaker 1: There's not been one time in history where a bear
17:44
Speaker 1: market hasn't come back to be a bull market. And
17:47
Speaker 1: if we look at the last one hundred and twenty
17:50
Speaker 1: four years here in Australia, which is exactly how long
17:53
Speaker 1: the Australian share market has existed, the market has ended
17:57
Speaker 1: the year down just twenty four times. Out of one
18:01
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty four times that the market has ended
18:05
Speaker 1: in Australia, just twenty four times, it's ended down a
18:09
Speaker 1: one hundred times it has ended up, and that's only
18:12
Speaker 1: nineteen percent of the time, which is not that bad.
18:15
Speaker 1: So that means that more than eighty percent of the
18:17
Speaker 1: time it's ended up. Even when we've had some psychotic
18:21
Speaker 1: wild years including wars and financial crisis and pandemics, like,
18:27
Speaker 1: we've only ended down a few times. Right, Oh, that's
18:31
Speaker 1: not that bad, that's pretty good. That's boring for the
18:33
Speaker 1: front of a newspaper. That's so boring, Beck And some
18:37
Speaker 1: of the best years, honestly came after the worst years.
18:41
Speaker 1: And I'm not saying it just recovered and got back
18:43
Speaker 1: to where it was and we're going to take credit
18:45
Speaker 1: for that. But like in two thousand and eight is
18:48
Speaker 1: when the global financial crisis happened, and I think that's
18:51
Speaker 1: you know, if you're listening to this podcast, you have
18:53
Speaker 1: an idea of that, but you're very likely to have
18:56
Speaker 1: not experienced that individually, because in two thousand and eight,
19:00
Speaker 1: a lot of you were in school, or you were
19:02
Speaker 1: just coming out of school, or you weren't investing at
19:04
Speaker 1: that point in time. But in two thousand and eight,
19:07
Speaker 1: beck the market dropped by forty percent. That would have
19:11
Speaker 1: made anybody run for the hills. That's scary as the
19:14
Speaker 1: scary number. In two thousand and nine, it bounced back
19:17
Speaker 1: with a thirty nine zero point six percent game. Okay,
19:21
Speaker 1: when all the way back and then came all the
19:23
Speaker 1: way forward and now it's grown and some. And then
19:26
Speaker 1: after COVID, so remember the COVID crash, everyone was absolutely
19:29
Speaker 1: spitting it like unemployment was at its peak because obviously
19:33
Speaker 1: everyone was working from home. Every man and his dog
19:35
Speaker 1: was being made redundant. The market then returned by seventeen
19:39
Speaker 1: point one percent in twenty twenty one. She thrivees so
19:42
Speaker 1: like she comes back. She's a redemption queen. She's always
19:46
Speaker 1: trying to reinvent herself and it's worked every single time.
19:49
Speaker 1: And then if we go back to a time when
19:51
Speaker 1: you and I weren't alive Beck in nineteen eighty three,
19:56
Speaker 1: right after the recession. I remember, yeah you do, I
20:00
Speaker 1: have heard of it. I've told you about the recession
20:01
Speaker 1: before I was probably like twenty twenty eight. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
20:04
Speaker 1: I think so. Yeah, yeah, the market actually surged by
20:08
Speaker 1: sixty six point eight percent. WHOA like imagine those returns? Like,
20:12
Speaker 1: imagine during the recession, obviously, lots of people were struggling.
20:16
Speaker 1: Please don't get me wrong, it's not what we're talking about.
20:18
Speaker 1: We're here to talk about investment. But imagine during the
20:20
Speaker 1: recession if you saw the markets dropping and you bought
20:23
Speaker 1: a whole heap of shares because you were like, this
20:25
Speaker 1: is an opportunity, and then the market the year after
20:28
Speaker 1: surged by sixty six point eight percent. We love laugh baby,
20:31
Speaker 1: you would be cheering exactly. So, while history doesn't repeat
20:37
Speaker 1: itself exactly, I think these examples show that what recovery
20:42
Speaker 1: periods can be incredibly strong. Yeah, and that happens even
20:47
Speaker 1: after significant dips. And like, my job is to help
20:49
Speaker 1: you feel confident about your investing journey, because lots of
20:53
Speaker 1: you are freaking out right now, being like what the heck?
20:55
Speaker 1: They like my investment portfolio is down, so I think
20:59
Speaker 1: that makes me feel confident. And when I'm looking at
21:01
Speaker 1: my investment portfolio and I'm like, oh my goodness, this
21:05
Speaker 1: feels like trash. Reframing it and being like, well, actually,
21:09
Speaker 1: this is what history has said. Yep, maybe I should
21:12
Speaker 1: be investing more. And you're doing a great job, because
21:15
Speaker 1: this is very, very comforting.
21:17
Speaker 3: So if the market has historically always recovered, yeah, as
21:21
Speaker 3: we know, why does everyone freak out the second.
21:24
Speaker 1: We see it?
21:24
Speaker 3: Oh?
21:25
Speaker 1: Baby? We are inherently emotional, yeah, Like have you met
21:28
Speaker 1: a human that is not inherently emotional? And also, I
21:30
Speaker 1: guess we're thinking what if this time it doesn't come
21:33
Speaker 1: back exactly because we are, if not anything super dramatic,
21:36
Speaker 1: ourselves like unfortunately, the market when it comes to investing
21:41
Speaker 1: might be very logical, but people are deeply emotional and
21:46
Speaker 1: at a very primal level, we are hunter gatherers and
21:51
Speaker 1: we are anxious about these things, and we want to
21:53
Speaker 1: stockpile our resources to make sure we don't have a
21:57
Speaker 1: time where we don't have enough. Makes sense, And then
22:00
Speaker 1: overlaying our money story. If you've been through you know,
22:03
Speaker 1: financial hardship that is going to hit even harder. We
22:06
Speaker 1: are emotional like, and that is okay, But our brains
22:10
Speaker 1: they're not built for the share market. Our brains are
22:13
Speaker 1: built in a very linear way, and the share market
22:16
Speaker 1: works in a very compounding way. And that is actually
22:19
Speaker 1: I'm not saying the concept is hard to comprehend, but
22:23
Speaker 1: actually making that happen is very hard for our brains
22:27
Speaker 1: to wrap it around. Like, at the end of the day,
22:29
Speaker 1: we are wired for survival. So when we see our
22:33
Speaker 1: investments drop, our brain just goes threat. That is a
22:37
Speaker 1: threat that is very scary, and we go into fight
22:39
Speaker 1: or flight. It's just going to happen the same way
22:42
Speaker 1: that if you heard like a smoke alarm or something
22:45
Speaker 1: go off at two am. It kicks off a fear
22:47
Speaker 1: response that tell us to do something, do anything, beck,
22:50
Speaker 1: do anything you need to stop the perceived loss. I
22:52
Speaker 1: don't want my house burning down. Like that is exactly
22:55
Speaker 1: what is happening. And because of something called loss aversion,
23:00
Speaker 1: psychologists have actually found that a loss feels twice as
23:04
Speaker 1: painful as anything good we gained. Huh, how annoying that sucks.
23:09
Speaker 1: So a ten percent drop to your portfolio feels much
23:13
Speaker 1: more dramatic than if you've got a ten percent game.
23:16
Speaker 1: If you got a ten percent game, you're like, yeah, cool,
23:18
Speaker 1: you got a ten percent loss. You're like, what the heck,
23:20
Speaker 1: I didn't sign up for this?
23:22
Speaker 3: Oh man, So it is true, right, yeah, that makes sense,
23:25
Speaker 3: that makes sense.
23:26
Speaker 1: And then what do we do. I'm good at this,
23:29
Speaker 1: I'm extra actually good at this at three am. Oh yeah, tastrophizing.
23:34
Speaker 1: So this is the way your brain jumps to the
23:36
Speaker 1: worst case scenario every single time, Like the market drops
23:41
Speaker 1: a little and then suddenly, Beck, you did it before,
23:44
Speaker 1: it's all over. The market's never going to recover. What
23:46
Speaker 1: if it just doesn't recover this time, she's never coming back.
23:49
Speaker 1: I should actually just sell everything and I should hide
23:52
Speaker 1: and I'm just going to keep my money under my mattress.
23:54
Speaker 1: Live love, laugh, Like that is going to work for me.
23:57
Speaker 1: It's actually your brain trying to protect you. And that's
23:59
Speaker 1: so nice. That's thanks your brain. Yeah, turn off. Yes,
24:03
Speaker 1: that's cute, but you can chill out. Yeah, just stop,
24:06
Speaker 1: just stop. You are being overprotective right now, and that
24:09
Speaker 1: often leads to the exact kind of decisions that hurt
24:13
Speaker 1: your long term performance. One out of ten, don't do
24:16
Speaker 1: that to me, Like we need to be able to
24:19
Speaker 1: reframe it and be like, thanks for you actually being
24:21
Speaker 1: a little bit overbearing right now, and I don't align
24:24
Speaker 1: with that as an investor.
24:25
Speaker 3: Appreciate your concerns, but nothing to worry about exactly, exactly,
24:30
Speaker 3: and at three am.
24:31
Speaker 1: That's very hard to negotiate.
24:33
Speaker 3: Hard.
24:33
Speaker 1: And it's not that people are irrational, it's that money
24:37
Speaker 1: is deeply emotional, and emotional decisions beck can never make
24:41
Speaker 1: for the best investment strategy. Oh, I cane. Like I
24:45
Speaker 1: was talking to someone the other day about their hex
24:47
Speaker 1: stet and they're like, yeah, but if I just paid
24:49
Speaker 1: off And I was like, cool, So if you paid
24:51
Speaker 1: off your entire hex stet, what's that indexing at. It's
24:55
Speaker 1: indexing at like, let's just say four percent. What's the
24:58
Speaker 1: share market return at like, oh, nine and a half
25:01
Speaker 1: percent on average? Like okay, cool, So if we had
25:04
Speaker 1: a return of four percent or nine and a half percent,
25:07
Speaker 1: which is better. Oh, that's a good way to look
25:09
Speaker 1: at where are you putting your money? Ah in the
25:11
Speaker 1: share market?
25:12
Speaker 3: Yeah?
25:12
Speaker 1: Okay? Why? Oh well, I don't like debt. I'm deeply
25:15
Speaker 1: emotional about this. It makes me feel like trash. I
25:17
Speaker 1: get it, but we need to reframe these things so
25:20
Speaker 1: that our investment strategy is not just emotional. It's not
25:24
Speaker 1: just going well that would feel good. I get it,
25:27
Speaker 1: I really do. And I won't keep talking about Hex
25:30
Speaker 1: because I could. We should do another episode on Hex.
25:32
Speaker 1: We should, we should?
25:34
Speaker 3: So what should we be doing to beat our emotional brains?
25:38
Speaker 3: Beat them, get in the bin.
25:39
Speaker 1: Like our emotional brain can be really helpful, but like
25:42
Speaker 1: we're switching to our logical brain, and we have to
25:44
Speaker 1: remember that our brain is actually reacting to fear, it's
25:48
Speaker 1: not reacting to facts. But you can actually work around
25:51
Speaker 1: it because sometimes facts come into it and they give
25:54
Speaker 1: us that stability. Right the second I go, okay, back,
25:56
Speaker 1: but like, let's look at the bigger picture ABCD, and
25:59
Speaker 1: you go, that actually makes me feel better because now
26:01
Speaker 1: I'm being a bit more logical about it. So first
26:05
Speaker 1: thing we're going to do. You're not going to be
26:06
Speaker 1: surprised here, baby, when in down zoom out, Yeah, long
26:10
Speaker 1: term charts show that recovery is normal and today's drop
26:14
Speaker 1: is just it's just one part of the story. There's
26:16
Speaker 1: a whole other story. Zoom out, baby, yep, stop refreshing.
26:19
Speaker 1: Maybe let's not check our portfolio every single day that's
26:23
Speaker 1: maybe just a reminder for me, not necessarily for everybody else.
26:26
Speaker 1: But if you're doing what I'm doing, cut it out.
26:29
Speaker 1: It is not helpful unless you're logging in to invest more.
26:33
Speaker 1: We don't need to be checking our portfolio consistently because
26:36
Speaker 1: you know what that does, fuels anxiety. We don't need
26:40
Speaker 1: that in our lives. We're going to stick to the plan.
26:43
Speaker 1: So you know how I hop on and on about
26:46
Speaker 1: having an investment strategy and having a plan. This is why,
26:49
Speaker 1: because we need to stick to that plan right now
26:52
Speaker 1: to make sure that future us isn't impacted. So we're
26:55
Speaker 1: going to remind ourselves of our goals. If you're investing
26:57
Speaker 1: for the future, you're not investing for this weekend and
27:00
Speaker 1: be so don't let short term fear change the strategy
27:03
Speaker 1: that you've set up for future success. And then, honestly,
27:08
Speaker 1: paper losses aren't real. Like this is probably silly but
27:13
Speaker 1: makes sense to me. You log into your investing app
27:16
Speaker 1: and it says you've lost money. You haven't lost money. Yeah,
27:19
Speaker 1: you actually haven't lost a bloody thing, just numbers on
27:21
Speaker 1: a screen. You still have the same amount of shares, right,
27:24
Speaker 1: did you lose any shares? Right? Did you lose actually
27:28
Speaker 1: any assets? No? No, But what does that number say?
27:31
Speaker 1: That number says that if you sold your assets today
27:34
Speaker 1: and you still have those same ten assets that you
27:36
Speaker 1: had yesterday, they're just going to pay you less. Like
27:40
Speaker 1: if I came to you and beck you owned a
27:41
Speaker 1: house and you said my house is worth five hundred
27:44
Speaker 1: thousand dollars, and I knock on your door and say, hey,
27:47
Speaker 1: beck On to buy your house and you go, great,
27:49
Speaker 1: I'm on the market anyway, I go four hundred thousand dollars.
27:52
Speaker 1: What are you going to do? I want to say, no, no,
27:55
Speaker 1: it's worth more. That's me. Yeah, that's nasty. You are
27:58
Speaker 1: undervaluing me. I'm not accepting that loss. So I'm not
28:02
Speaker 1: going to be accepting that. Thank you. I'm going to
28:05
Speaker 1: wait for a better buyer. That is such a good
28:08
Speaker 1: way to I'm going to wait for someone else, and
28:10
Speaker 1: I'm going to wait until they're confident that this is
28:13
Speaker 1: as sexy a our set as I think it is.
28:15
Speaker 1: I'm going to wait for my five hundred thousand dollars value. Right,
28:18
Speaker 1: such a great paper. Losses are not real. You only
28:21
Speaker 1: lose money if you sell your assets and then lock
28:25
Speaker 1: in those losses. Which to be a little bit fancy.
28:28
Speaker 1: In investment world, that's called crystallizing a loss. So if
28:32
Speaker 1: we crystallize a loss, we've accepted less for something that
28:35
Speaker 1: is worth more. Yeah, okay, that's not that she's on
28:38
Speaker 1: the money vibe. No, that's not how we ask spirit.
28:41
Speaker 1: So that's exactly why I literally say, don't invest money
28:44
Speaker 1: that you're going to need in the next couple of years,
28:47
Speaker 1: because you know, if you're like, well, be I need it, well,
28:50
Speaker 1: you're going to have to accept some losses to get
28:52
Speaker 1: that money back. Yeah, that's not the life we want
28:54
Speaker 1: to live, which is why we always have to have
28:56
Speaker 1: an emergency fund to access some cash. So we're never
28:59
Speaker 1: selling our portfolio at a less than good time. So yes,
29:02
Speaker 1: for example, if you're like thinking of investing your house deposit,
29:06
Speaker 1: which a lot of people in our community are, like,
29:08
Speaker 1: I'm saving up for my first home, you're thinking, oh
29:11
Speaker 1: my gosh, I'm just gonna pop it in the share
29:12
Speaker 1: market because love me some sexy returns and I'm going
29:15
Speaker 1: to try and get a little bit of a boost
29:17
Speaker 1: that could backfire. Like imagine if you've done that at
29:19
Speaker 1: the start of this year. Yeah, and then you're planning
29:21
Speaker 1: on buying in like June, Are you pulling your money
29:23
Speaker 1: out now at a loss? Like unless you're planning on
29:26
Speaker 1: riding the wave and you're like very happy to go, Okay,
29:30
Speaker 1: well the market's down, I'm going to put off buying
29:33
Speaker 1: for another year. Yeah, Like I would never be investing
29:36
Speaker 1: that amount of money because investing only works when you
29:39
Speaker 1: give it time. It's a long term game, not a
29:42
Speaker 1: quick term win. Yeah, that's a great I could harp
29:45
Speaker 1: on and on about that. I mean, I'm happy to listen,
29:48
Speaker 1: but I do you want to buckle in?
29:50
Speaker 3: No? No, No, we're trying to wrap this episode. I
29:52
Speaker 3: do want to know, like what about individual stocks? Like
29:55
Speaker 3: how do I know if something I own is just
29:58
Speaker 3: dipping with the market or actually tanking? Yeah, look, at
30:01
Speaker 3: the end of the day, it is a very good question,
30:04
Speaker 3: and there's actually no perfect way to.
30:06
Speaker 1: Know in the moment. Sure, but there are a few
30:10
Speaker 1: signs that could help you get a better sense of
30:12
Speaker 1: what's going on. And I teach this in a lot
30:14
Speaker 1: more depth in my investing masterclass. But like, it might
30:18
Speaker 1: be a dip if I guess the broader market or
30:20
Speaker 1: the sector is down. So like if you've got a
30:22
Speaker 1: tech stock, and you're worried about it, Like, look at
30:24
Speaker 1: the tech sector, is that down in general? Right? There's
30:27
Speaker 1: no major company specific drama in the headlines. So remember
30:31
Speaker 1: when After Pay was going through all of that, like
30:33
Speaker 1: it was all in the media, made sense that it
30:35
Speaker 1: might be down. The business still seems strong overall, So
30:39
Speaker 1: if they still have like solid leadership or decent revenue
30:42
Speaker 1: or product people are still using, it's probably just part
30:45
Speaker 1: of the dip. Or if it has a history of
30:47
Speaker 1: bouncing back from past volatility, I would say that it's
30:50
Speaker 1: just part of the dip, but it might be more
30:53
Speaker 1: dramatic or like something that's maybe not a good investment,
30:56
Speaker 1: if it's like falling real hard when the rest of
30:59
Speaker 1: the market is not falling, or if there's like lots
31:02
Speaker 1: of media about it and every man in his dog
31:06
Speaker 1: has an opinion on them, like there's profit warnings or
31:08
Speaker 1: there's a big scandal, or like the executives are walking out,
31:12
Speaker 1: or it's part of a trend, so like maybe it's
31:15
Speaker 1: been sliding for a little while and this is just
31:18
Speaker 1: speeding it up, or it was driven more by hype
31:22
Speaker 1: than fundamentals. So we see this a lot in bitcoin
31:25
Speaker 1: and cryptocurrencies, where people got so excited and bought heaps
31:29
Speaker 1: of it, but it wasn't actually a valuable asset. It
31:32
Speaker 1: was just more expensive because of the hype around it.
31:34
Speaker 1: And now people have gotten board of it and they're like, oh,
31:36
Speaker 1: this isn't actually all it piped out to be, right,
31:40
Speaker 1: So that's probably what I would be thinking.
31:43
Speaker 3: Okay, okay, So what if I'm like I just don't
31:47
Speaker 3: have the brain for deep diving into company reports, Like
31:50
Speaker 3: I'm not a finance because you've hired me to be
31:53
Speaker 3: your analysts, right, yeah, but how am I supposed to
31:56
Speaker 3: keep up with all of it? If you can listen
31:57
Speaker 3: to my podcast, I can just move in with you,
31:59
Speaker 3: do you want to. I've got a spare room.
32:01
Speaker 1: Your podcast, You got a podcast? No? No, But I'm
32:06
Speaker 1: a full finance nerd, right. I went to the budget
32:09
Speaker 1: last week, and I don't think I've ever found Golds
32:12
Speaker 1: so hard about saying the Minister for Finance and Women
32:15
Speaker 1: do be for God's work. Well, I don't know if
32:18
Speaker 1: it's God's work, but it's definitely some nerdy work. But like,
32:22
Speaker 1: I don't even have time for that at this point.
32:24
Speaker 1: And that's why personally, most of my investing portfolio is
32:27
Speaker 1: made up of ETFs. When you invest in an ETF,
32:31
Speaker 1: and this isn't a recommendation, this is just like my
32:33
Speaker 1: investment strategy. You're essentially buying like a tiny slice of
32:37
Speaker 1: a really big basket of companies and assets. And behind
32:41
Speaker 1: that basket is a team of very intelligent professionals who
32:45
Speaker 1: are watching it like hawks. And I kind of like
32:47
Speaker 1: the idea of that, because I used to be someone
32:51
Speaker 1: who had a maximum of I think at one point
32:54
Speaker 1: I had twelve different individual shares and I was checking
32:58
Speaker 1: that every week and revaluing things and rebalancing and you know,
33:02
Speaker 1: making lots of changes and tweaks and having to deep
33:05
Speaker 1: dive on every single individual company. I just don't have
33:08
Speaker 1: time for that. Like, the performance on an ETF was
33:11
Speaker 1: literally comparable, if not better, and I was like, I'm
33:14
Speaker 1: just trying to be a fancy here. I'm going to
33:16
Speaker 1: go back to ETFs. I still play with individual shares
33:20
Speaker 1: because I love the idea of a company that I
33:23
Speaker 1: believe in, and like, I do want a deep dive
33:25
Speaker 1: into your annual reports. I do want to read your
33:28
Speaker 1: CEO report, like, but more on an interest level than
33:33
Speaker 1: my future wealth is dependent on this level so I
33:35
Speaker 1: think you know, at the end of the day, if
33:38
Speaker 1: a stock within an ETF starts slipping, somebody else is
33:41
Speaker 1: like checking in on it. And if it's not part
33:45
Speaker 1: of a wider dip, a fund manager is literally going
33:48
Speaker 1: to go in and evaluate if that share needs to
33:50
Speaker 1: get kicked out of your portfolio or not. And they're
33:52
Speaker 1: going to do it for you. You don't have to
33:54
Speaker 1: lift a finger. And I like, if you buy an
33:57
Speaker 1: ETF and then it has a crappy share in it,
33:59
Speaker 1: they're going to get rid of it beck and replace
34:01
Speaker 1: it with something that does perform. And I love that
34:03
Speaker 1: for me. Yeah, okay, So I like having a team
34:06
Speaker 1: of money nerds doing the work for you. Yeah, that's
34:08
Speaker 1: really sweet. And even this money nerd has that in place. Well,
34:12
Speaker 1: every money nerd needs the money nerd exactly, so I
34:14
Speaker 1: don't have to obsess over every company in my atmory,
34:17
Speaker 1: that's not your responsibility. If you're buying an ETF, it
34:20
Speaker 1: is no longer your responsibility, And like that's the whole point.
34:22
Speaker 1: You're not expected to be a stock picker at that point.
34:26
Speaker 1: You're leveraging the expertise of these fund managers who are
34:29
Speaker 1: working like dogs behind the scene because they always, like
34:33
Speaker 1: fund managers are inherently competitive. I've never met a fund
34:36
Speaker 1: manager who is not deeply in competition with every single
34:40
Speaker 1: other fund manager on LinkedIn. Yeah, like they want to
34:43
Speaker 1: be the best fund manager ever, So they're always looking
34:46
Speaker 1: at other ETFs and trying to outperform those and looking
34:49
Speaker 1: at what their strategy like their nerds. I love it. Yeah,
34:52
Speaker 1: I don't have the capacity for that. Taking my money,
34:55
Speaker 1: please manage it. It's like having a team of money
34:57
Speaker 1: nerds who are like doing the work for you. And
34:59
Speaker 1: of course I think it's always good to understand what
35:02
Speaker 1: you're investing in. But the beauty of ETFs is that
35:05
Speaker 1: they can help you stay diversified and take some pressure
35:09
Speaker 1: off managing every single detail yourself. God, that's good. I
35:12
Speaker 1: want to go out for my oatla Tebek. Yeah, for sure.
35:15
Speaker 3: And you don't have time if you're managing your own
35:18
Speaker 3: funt exactly.
35:19
Speaker 1: So I guess everyone just chill. We feel better, Okay,
35:23
Speaker 1: we feel better about this. I don't know. I do
35:25
Speaker 1: feel a lot better.
35:26
Speaker 3: I feel a lot better, but I guess I like, well,
35:28
Speaker 3: this entire podcast was for you, so yeah, and it's fine.
35:31
Speaker 1: It doesn't actually matter that it doesn't. I do feel better.
35:35
Speaker 3: Thank you.
35:35
Speaker 1: V Well. I think we'll wrap there then, because honestly
35:38
Speaker 1: I need another coffee. But if you still want to
35:41
Speaker 1: know more about why I believe you shouldn't panic about
35:44
Speaker 1: the markets, we did actually do another episode a couple
35:47
Speaker 1: of weeks ago, and I'm going to link that in
35:48
Speaker 1: the show notes if you don't want to click the link.
35:51
Speaker 1: It was called Everyone's Panicking about the Market b Here
35:53
Speaker 1: is why I am not. And it's a really good
35:55
Speaker 1: one to come back to when the headlines are just
35:58
Speaker 1: getting a little bit loud. We all get anxious. We
36:01
Speaker 1: are deeply emotional as human beings, and you know what,
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Speaker 1: that can be a value, just not when it comes
36:07
Speaker 1: to our share PORTFOLIOO. And if this episode Beck has
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Speaker 1: helped you feel a little bit calmer about everything that's
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Speaker 1: going on, I want you to send it to a
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Speaker 1: friend who's currently freaking out about their portfolio right now.
36:18
Speaker 1: And you know what, every single one of us who
36:20
Speaker 1: is employed in Australia has a superannuation fund. You all
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Speaker 1: have portfolios. You all need to be caring about that,
36:27
Speaker 1: and we need a friend to tell us don't hit
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Speaker 1: the panic button, girlfriend, do not change your risk profile
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Speaker 1: just because you're worried. Yes, anyway, I'm done here.
36:36
Speaker 3: Great Core VD, and don't forget to like and subscribe
36:38
Speaker 3: while you're here. It really helps us keep bringing these
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Speaker 3: episodes to you so you can understand what's going on
36:42
Speaker 3: in the world and stay on track with your investing journey. Baby,
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Speaker 3: I've got your back, and we will see you for
36:48
Speaker 3: a little lighter of an episode on Friday.
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Speaker 1: You'll see you, hi, guys. Did by shared on Cheese
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Speaker 1: consider your individual circumstances. She's on the Money exists purely
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