Latest / eCommerce Podcast / The $20K Loan That Turned Into an Ecommerce Death Spiral
Transcript
- 0:04Well, hello and welcome to the e commerce podcast.
- 0:08My name is Matt Edmondson and it is great to be with you on this.
- 0:12Well, let's just say it could be sunny day if the clouds weren't blocking the sunshine, but it's a beautiful day nonetheless.
- 0:19And it's great that you're with us.
- 0:21Forgive my nasal tones.
- 0:22I do have a slight head cold, but you know, we've soldiered on.
- 0:24didn't need to call the paramedics, which is an important thing um with this sort of bouts of man flu, but you know, it was a close call, but I'm surviving.
- 0:34Thank you for all your letters of encouragement.
- 0:36uh
- 0:39Anyway, welcome to this.
- 0:41It's great to have you with us.
- 0:43If you're new to the show, very warm welcome to you.
- 0:45I appreciate we get new people every week, which is just fantastic.
- 0:48So great to have you with us.
- 0:50We just talk about e-commerce.
- 0:51We love e-commerce.
- 0:52We have great fun talking about e-commerce.
- 0:55And today's guest is no exception to the rule.
- 0:59We have lots of great guests on the show.
- 1:00And Rob, it's fair to say since we did the pre-call, because we always do this sort of pre-call with guests where we just check.
- 1:07you know, do we get on?
- 1:08Is it going to be all right?
- 1:09You know, that kind of thing.
- 1:10I've been looking to our conversation, looking forward to it.
- 1:15Whether this is what we call the podcast or not, Rob, I just love the fact that I've jotted down in my notes that uh the death spiral of Shopify or Stripe loans is going to be
- 1:30the key topic.
- 1:32Welcome to the show, man.
- 1:33Good to have you.
- 1:33How you doing?
- 1:35I'm doing good.
- 1:36Thanks for immediately linking me to the death spiral.
- 1:39That's...
- 1:42If that's how people are gonna remember me, that's not a good thing.
- 1:45Hey, just take it however it comes, right?
- 1:48It's like, if people think Shopify loans, they need to think of Rob first, right?
- 1:53This is the way it is.
- 1:54So Rob, tell us a little bit about yourself and why you're on the show, man.
- 1:59I'll spare the whole backstory, I'm Rob.
- 2:02I'm originally from the Netherlands, but I've moved out 15 years ago, currently living in my sixth country.
- 2:07And I run a company called Inside Matters.
- 2:10We do fractional CFO and accounting.
- 2:12And when I say accounting, I mean management accounting.
- 2:15So we don't care about tax.
- 2:16We care about management information, owner decision-making.
- 2:19And we do that for seven and eight figure online businesses, mainly e-commerce.
- 2:25Very good.
- 2:25Is your sixth country, sorry, out of all of that I heard, don't care about tax and I've lived in six countries.
- 2:32Is that why you don't care about tax?
- 2:33Is that why you're living six countries?
- 2:36Because you don't care about tax.
- 2:38And the other five after you maybe.
- 2:43I've done everything by the book.
- 2:46I've been creative, but I've done everything by the book.
- 2:49No, the thing is, I run my team completely remote.
- 2:52We are set up officially in Hong Kong with a subsidiary in the US.
- 2:56Our clients, like most of the listeners here, you can work from anywhere.
- 2:59So quite a few of the people in the e-commerce space work from random countries with companies incorporated in random countries.
- 3:05Yeah.
- 3:06I don't know anything about UK tax.
- 3:08I don't know anything about BVI tax.
- 3:10I don't want to know.
- 3:11I care about the business side and people, there's a of people, people a lot smarter than I am who can help you optimize for the taxes.
- 3:19But that is such a weird and different world.
- 3:22ah I'm very aware of the things that I don't know and that's definitely one of them.
- 3:28Yes, I think it's a good statement to stay right off the bat actually.
- 3:33It's good to be aware of what you don't know.
- 3:36Right.
- 3:36And stay in your lane.
- 3:37It's critical.
- 3:38Yeah, absolutely.
- 3:40So what country are you in at the moment?
- 3:42uh So if you are fed up with the clouds there, move over.
- 3:46Same time zone, better weather.
- 3:49I have thought of, I, I, I'm not going to lie.
- 3:51I have looked at, um, longterm let's in Portugal recently, cause you're just like this time of the year, at the time of recording, it's, it's mid-Feb.
- 3:59And I think this podcast will come out at some point in early March, but you just, at this time of the year, I'm always like, I need to escape.
- 4:06I need to get out.
- 4:07So you, you may well have me as a neighbor next year.
- 4:11would be nice.
- 4:13say that now.
- 4:14Let's see if you say the same in about 45 minutes.
- 4:18So let's jump straight into it Rob.
- 4:20Like the question I like to ask all of my guests, right, one of the questions I've started to ask I suppose, is you obviously work with the seven, eight figure brands, econ brands,
- 4:33you help them with their accounting and understanding the business side of things.
- 4:38Now if you could wave a magic wand
- 4:41and solve the biggest single problem that your customers face or have, what would be the problem that you would solve?
- 4:50There is a couple of them.
- 4:52One of them is just awareness of the finances.
- 4:55That's not a problem to solve.
- 4:57That's an attitude to solve.
- 4:59Access to working capital is a key one.
- 5:03In e-commerce, we are struggling always with weird supplier payment terms, a lack of access to capital because we're still a bit of a weird industry in the traditional eyes.
- 5:13So we are always bound to our clients always have to resort to less than ideal financing options.
- 5:20And I'd love to break down the duopoly of Shopify and Amazon, but that is a whole different conversation.
- 5:30I'm with you.
- 5:30I'm with you.
- 5:32I would love to see that broken massively.
- 5:36get that they're helpful and people play the systems well.
- 5:42I think, yeah, there's a few duopolis that I would like to break down and that would definitely be one of them.
- 5:49So awareness of finance.
- 5:51You say that's an attitude issue.
- 5:53What do you mean?
- 5:55So typically most e-commerce entrepreneurs that we work with, they are either really good at marketing or they are really in love with their product or both.
- 6:03Finance typically tends to be an afterthought.
- 6:05It's at the end of the year, look at their revenue.
- 6:08Revenue is typically the one they know because that's the vanity metric that everybody cares about.
- 6:13But being an understanding of what is the actual gross margin, what's the actual working capital situation and how to optimize for that.
- 6:20That tends to be an afterthought.
- 6:22And for some, that is a very expensive afterthought because they're going to leave a lot of money on the table.
- 6:28It's perceived as less sexy.
- 6:30And I think that's not justified.
- 6:33But it's perceived as less sexy than improving your ad campaign or improving your email marketing.
- 6:40Why do you think that is?
- 6:42Why do you think it's less sexy or perceived as less sexy?
- 6:45Oh, even I think it's less sexy.
- 6:47Marketing is more sexy.
- 6:48It's the nice images.
- 6:50It's selling the dream.
- 6:51It's tinkering with everything and you see direct response.
- 6:54The financial perspective is a bit more, okay, let's take a step back.
- 6:57Let's analyze bit more rational.
- 6:59And there's factors in play that tend to be a little bit, might be a little bit more complicated.
- 7:04There's more moving parts.
- 7:06And especially if you're a marketeer, that number side is less intuitive for most people.
- 7:12So I don't blame them for thinking it's less sexy.
- 7:15But in the end, you run the business to make a living, to build up personal wealth, to build up family wealth, to pay the rent or to live in Thailand, wherever.
- 7:25But money is part of the motivation to have the business.
- 7:28So it should be much more central to the decision on how do you run the business and not just how do I push the revenue.
- 7:35Yeah.
- 7:35Yeah.
- 7:36I'm kind of thinking as you're talking, actually, there's a, there's another metric, which pretty much everybody tracks, but it's not very sexy.
- 7:44And I wonder when you, when you know it, how many of you are disappointed by it?
- 7:50And that would be your weight, right?
- 7:52So you, you take your weight.
- 7:55If I, when I stand on the scales, I'm like, most of the time I'm like, still got a ways to go.
- 8:00Right.
- 8:00It's just, it doesn't.
- 8:02It doesn't thrill me, but I also appreciate that what gets measured gets managed.
- 8:06so I wonder if we perceive finance to be a bit like that.
- 8:12It's not really telling me what I want it to tell me just yet.
- 8:16So I don't actually want to know.
- 8:20I think that's true and I think it's like the way you have control over it, but not completely.
- 8:27You have to probably do a few painful things or not so nice things to improve it.
- 8:31um So there is some validity in that argument.
- 8:37So what would you say, um like if you think about your clients or you think about anybody running an e-commerce site, what are the key, I don't know, three, four, five finance
- 8:49metrics that we all need to know just like that, that we just need to have our finger on the pulse with?
- 8:54Gross margin, per product group or per SKU, depending a bit on your business, gross margin is absolutely critical.
- 9:01If your gross margin is too low, you're gonna have a really, really hard time scaling the business profitably.
- 9:07Your custom requisition costing your lifetime value and the relation between those two.
- 9:12If you can't recite those in the middle of the night, you're not on top of it.
- 9:18And your working capital, your working capital cycle.
- 9:22How does, you buy inventory,
- 9:24How long does it take before that batch of inventory starts making you cash?
- 9:28Before you've like cashflow positive on that batch of inventory.
- 9:32uh Because cashflow is the number one killer in e-commerce.
- 9:37If a business goes bad or if it goes too well, cashflow becomes a problem.
- 9:41It's not your P &L, but it's the cashflow that kills you.
- 9:44Yeah, or the lack of it is always the thing that kills me.
- 9:49So gross margin for those that don't know, Robin, I don't want to overs.
- 9:53I don't want to.
- 9:54It's not a school lesson, obviously, but I appreciate there are people who may be just starting out who are going is what's gross.
- 9:59I always remember listening to an interview with Richard Branson.
- 10:03You know, he's made a few, a few bucks, hasn't he?
- 10:05He's not shy of a few quid, as they say.
- 10:07But I remember listening to an interview where he was like.
- 10:12I never really understood the difference between gross margin and net margin.
- 10:17You're like, holy cow.
- 10:19So for those that are listening that maybe struggle with gross margin, net margin, what do you mean by it?
- 10:24Just walk me through the basics.
- 10:26So let's start with net revenue.
- 10:29That's your revenue, your gross revenue minus all your refunds and discounts.
- 10:34That's net revenue.
- 10:36And then minus your cost of goods sold.
- 10:38So that's your product costs, your inbound shipping, your warehousing, your labeling, your packaging, all these things.
- 10:45That is your gross margin.
- 10:49So that does not include ad spend or customer acquisition costs.
- 10:52It's really the cost of getting the product
- 10:55to your warehouse.
- 10:57That is cost of goods sold.
- 11:00And if your gross margin, so your revenue minus your cost of goods sold, is too low, you don't have the budget for significant ad spend.
- 11:09You don't have the budget for a good operations team.
- 11:13So pushing that gross margin higher is usually priority number one.
- 11:17Very good.
- 11:18And do you have like, like if you were going to look at an econ business, say you were going to buy an econ business for whatever reason.
- 11:26And uh one came up and you looked at a gross margin.
- 11:29Do you have in your head a minimum number that should be really based on what you know for that business to be able to be not only viable, but also to have some chance of scaling in
- 11:39future.
- 11:41It depends a bit.
- 11:42So there's a lot of nuance there depending on the type of product, the market, the competitive landscape, the brand value, et cetera.
- 11:49Not knowing anything else about the business.
- 11:51If the gross margin is less than 60%, I'm out.
- 11:59So ideally you have it higher.
- 12:00And there are situations, if it's a very high volume and very high repeat purchase rates, a lower gross margin might be acceptable.
- 12:10But in a vacuum, it has to be at least 60%, at least.
- 12:16Because you have to count on your advertising and your marketing and sales costs.
- 12:20You have to work with the overhead.
- 12:22You as the owner have to get a salary.
- 12:25You have other expenses as well.
- 12:27uh
- 12:29Typically what we would see is 40 % cost of goods sold, 30 % overhead and marketing and sales, and 30 % profit.
- 12:40That's the target.
- 12:42Now, there's not many that make that, because especially marketing and sales tends to be way higher than that.
- 12:49But that's the holy grail, basically.
- 12:53Yeah, it's the one everyone's chasing, isn't it?
- 12:56They always used to, when I, back in the old days, Rob, sort of pre-e-commerce really, when I was sort of first starting out in business, they always talked about the rule of
- 13:07thirds, where you did costs, where it was basically a third, as a sort of third in effect cost of goods sold, a third overhead, a third profit, you know, and that was in effect
- 13:23what you...
- 13:23the same.
- 13:24the same thing.
- 13:25It's interesting.
- 13:26I think the companies that make a third profit, I don't come across many of them.
- 13:34I tend to see people doing maybe 10 to 20 % net profit and they are investing heavily, I think the net profits into more ad spend to try and grow new customer acquisition.
- 13:49And so they're...
- 13:52there's sort of the cost of acquisition.
- 13:55There's that, what's that ratio?
- 13:58There's a ratio, isn't there?
- 13:59Where you track.
- 14:00Yeah, that's the one CAC2LTV where we were always told three to one was good.
- 14:05And if it was more than three to one, you probably need to spend more on ads.
- 14:12That depends on your gross margin.
- 14:15I find that...
- 14:19Yes, that is oversimplified because there's a lot more new ones that are depending on your products.
- 14:24If you're selling microwaves, your LTV is going to be very different than if you sell consumables.
- 14:31So it has to have a bit more context than that.
- 14:34again, in the vacuum, that kind of makes sense.
- 14:37I would prefer four to one.
- 14:39Well, fair.
- 14:40Yeah.
- 14:41Are you I'm kind of curious to you.
- 14:46I suppose a good question here is when I think about the guys that do our accounts, Steve and the team.
- 14:55Great.
- 14:56Michelle, who's our Ops Director, she does a wonderful job.
- 15:01Quite risk averse compared to me.
- 15:03You know, I'm like, let's just go do it.
- 15:06We might lose everything, but let's go have a bit of fun.
- 15:10And this is where I also wonder, coming back to your first point, whether we don't think they're sexy, because do we find numbers a little bit um inhibiting in some way?
- 15:23That's the perception and it should be the other way around.
- 15:26you know, so one of my personal pet peeves is the importance of accurate forecasting.
- 15:33If you make a sales forecast for the rest of this year, maybe this month is pretty accurate, but the closer you get to the end of the year, the more wrong you're going to
- 15:42be.
- 15:42And that's fine.
- 15:43That's normal.
- 15:44But building the muscle of making a forecast, reviewing your progress against the forecast,
- 15:50and then understanding where you were wrong and then iterating and next month being a little bit more accurate, the more accurate the forecast is, the more certainty you have
- 15:59about the future, the more confidence you can have to make big decisions.
- 16:04If you want to launch a new product or you want to add a new channel or a new country, that's going to take an investment.
- 16:10Can you afford that?
- 16:12Well, that kind of depends on how much buffer you have.
- 16:15But realistically speaking, you probably don't have a lot of buffer because you're reinvesting everything.
- 16:20So the more confidence you can have in your forecast, the more risk you can take with new investments, with new growth initiatives, because you are much more comfortable with this
- 16:30is what the main business or this is what the existing business is going to deliver.
- 16:34So it should reduce that anxiety and it allows you to do more because you have less risk.
- 16:41Yeah, yeah, no, I agree.
- 16:44I agree.
- 16:44I'm just sorry.
- 16:45I'm just playing devil's advocate slightly.
- 16:47I'm kind of, let me just rewind if I can.
- 16:52Cost of goods sold.
- 16:54So we're looking at around 40 % there.
- 16:56In other words, we're looking for a gross margin of around 60%.
- 16:59Two questions.
- 17:00One, are you including shipping in cost of goods sold?
- 17:05And two, well, let me ask that question first before I come into my second one.
- 17:09So inbound shipping.
- 17:11So from your manufacturer to your warehouse, that should be included in cost of goods sold.
- 17:16Shipping from the warehouse to the final customer.
- 17:19Technically, if you're a purist accountant, that should be in operating expenses.
- 17:24Okay, very good.
- 17:26don't mind putting in a cost of goods sold.
- 17:28I personally would prefer to put it there because it feels more closely connected to cost of goods sold, but strictly accounting speaking, it's operating expenses.
- 17:37Yeah.
- 17:38Okay.
- 17:39My second question, given that you've given this magic number of 60 % in an ideal world, and I appreciate it is in an ideal world.
- 17:48There will be people listening to the show and I know who they are.
- 17:51I've had conversations with some of them who are on gross margins of 20%, some are on 30%, some are on 40%.
- 18:00They're going to be crying right now.
- 18:04And um especially if they're watching YouTube, giving your reaction, I'm kind of like, do you, how do you deal with companies that have such low gross margin?
- 18:15So this is where context is so important.
- 18:19We have a client in that kind of space, but they're almost more like a wholesaler rather than a retailer.
- 18:25it's business to business.
- 18:27They have larger clients, uh bigger order volumes.
- 18:31They can afford to have the lower gross margin because they have less inventory risk.
- 18:35They have less inventory to hold because it's longer term clients that have a pretty accurate sales forecast of what they will purchase in the next year.
- 18:44So their risk profile is very different.
- 18:47They're not gonna have Facebook ads that all of a sudden stop working and then you're stuck with a boatload of inventory.
- 18:53So it really depends on the context on what is acceptable or not.
- 18:59If you're B2C and you're depending on paid traffic and you're running a 20 % gross margin, I think you're in a very tough spot.
- 19:08Yeah.
- 19:09the question then really becomes like, how can you maneuver out of that spot?
- 19:12Can you change the product?
- 19:13Can you change the positioning?
- 19:14Can you change the cost structure of the product?
- 19:18Because this is not a sustainable, scalable model.
- 19:21Yeah, that's a good home truth.
- 19:23I like that Rob.
- 19:24I remember, if I can interject a story here.
- 19:29We had our website called Jersey Beauty Company.
- 19:32And I don't have it anymore.
- 19:34We sold it during COVID.
- 19:37And years ago, over 10 years ago now, we were doing really well with that business.
- 19:43It was doing millions every year and it was scaling, it was growing and we were loving it.
- 19:48Now, one problem that we had,
- 19:51which I didn't realize until it was too late was
- 19:56we, I would say over 95 % of our sales were through one supplier.
- 20:00Okay, so we bought products off one supplier, which accounted for 95 % of our sales.
- 20:06The other 5 % came from the other suppliers that we had on the site and try as we could to grow those other suppliers, it just wasn't working.
- 20:12We were, you know, we were with this sort of one supplier and there were that one supplier.
- 20:18Dermalogica, if you know the skincare trade, they were supplying other websites as well.
- 20:23So we were all competing and we're all doing quite well.
- 20:27Until one day, we got a letter from them.
- 20:34It was January 2012.
- 20:35I always remember this.
- 20:37We got a letter from them saying, basically guys, we're changing our pricing policy.
- 20:41The more you buy, the more you pay.
- 20:44And so, yeah, yeah.
- 20:45was, yeah, yeah.
- 20:48seen that one before.
- 20:49I looking back, I have all kinds of ideas as to why Dermalogica did this.
- 20:54um Looking back.
- 20:59Part of me thinks it was quite an immoral thing.
- 21:02Part of me thinks actually this was quite a shrewd move.
- 21:06Because what it meant was I paid overnight 30 % more for the products I was buying.
- 21:10Because we were one of the biggest worldwide suppliers.
- 21:15So what that did, going back to gross margin, my gross margin shrunk from 40 some percent all the way down to about 16%.
- 21:23And
- 21:25let me tell you that business halved in value at that point.
- 21:31Sales dropped off a cliff and what I couldn't do because Dermalogica started selling direct to consumers themselves because at this point they weren't really, it wasn't their
- 21:39business model.
- 21:41They were able to offer value to customers that I wasn't like gifts with purchase and so on and so forth and it became problematic.
- 21:50So I fully appreciate what it's like trying to run a business on search type margins.
- 21:57And in essence, the Dermalogica sales of that business declined year on year after that.
- 22:05And it's really hard to manage a business, I think with any kind of energy, there is a perpetual decline in business.
- 22:13So that business declined in sales with Dermalogica feet.
- 22:19several years and we tried everything that we could do to rethink it and to redo it.
- 22:25It was just really really hard and soul destroying in many ways.
- 22:30So I feel for you if you're out there and you're working on sort 15, 20, 25 percent gross margins because that's not easy.
- 22:41think that's a very polite way of putting it.
- 22:47It really is.
- 22:48It really is.
- 22:49em But yeah, it's a fascinating one.
- 22:52em Let's go to working capital, because this is an interesting phrase that people might not understand straight away.
- 23:00So you talked about the cycle between buying stock, that stock going onto your shelves, and then selling that stock.
- 23:08Is that what you mean by working capital cycle?
- 23:10Let's just dig into that a little bit.
- 23:13Yes, essentially yes, because basically if you're running a business, you have money tied up in inventory.
- 23:18You have bills that you have to pay to your supplier.
- 23:21And if you're doing wholesale or B2B, you might have receivables of money that you get from your customers.
- 23:28The balance of those three, that's your working capital.
- 23:30So how much cash do you have tied up in actually running the business?
- 23:36And you need to understand and manage that to actually scale because changing the payment terms,
- 23:43On the customer side, it's typically not an option, but changing the payment terms on your supplier side may make a really, really big impact.
- 23:51Case in point, we have a client in uh Australia for a seasonal business.
- 23:56Their supplier is in Europe, so they have to order inventory six months before they plan to sell it.
- 24:02It's, from a working capital perspective, disaster as a business.
- 24:06They managed to run it really well, but the working capital is horrible because you have to...
- 24:12Define now what you plan to sell six, nine, 12 months from now, pay part of it now, and then three months from now when the stuff gets on the boat, you pay the rest and then you
- 24:22wait and you wait and you wait for three months before the stuff hits your warehouse.
- 24:27And then you can start selling it.
- 24:30So that's insanely capital intensive.
- 24:33If you're having ways to, for example, with your suppliers, you change the payment terms, not pay 30%, sorry, 50%.
- 24:42before shipment, but when it arrives or 60 days after it arrives, it frees up a lot of cash.
- 24:48It doesn't change your margin, but it frees up a lot of cash.
- 24:52So if you want to, if you're growing fast, you can afford to buy more inventory because you have more cash in the bank accounts that you can use to spend on ads or buy inventory.
- 25:01So even if it doesn't change your profitability, it does change how fast or how healthy your business can grow.
- 25:09m Yeah, it's an interesting one.
- 25:13Again, I'm reminded of a chap called Albert Gube.
- 25:15AG was a bit of a mentor to me years ago.
- 25:19And he's passed away now.
- 25:21And he was a really interesting guy because he was his whole business model was the quick safe supermarket in the UK in the 60s and 70s.
- 25:30And his whole idea was
- 25:32I'll buy a pallet of baked beans.
- 25:34I'll put the pallet out in the shop.
- 25:36I won't unpack them.
- 25:37I'll leave them on the pallet because then that saves me paying somebody to unpack them.
- 25:41And when I buy them, um I'll get it on a 90 day invoice rather than a 30 day invoice.
- 25:48And then I'll take actually maybe 92 days to pay them.
- 25:51And he just offset everything constantly, which just freed up so much money for him to expand quite rapidly.
- 25:59It was quite an interesting strategy.
- 26:00I don't know if I would have the
- 26:03uh, the courage maybe the full hardiness, I don't know, uh, to, pull that off.
- 26:11So probably, if I understand what he did correctly, if that pallet goes in the supermarket, it doesn't take him 90 days to sell out that pallet.
- 26:20So he has what we call negative working capital.
- 26:24He has money from the customer before he pays the supplier.
- 26:28That is every finance person's wet dream, because that means you can scale unlimited.
- 26:34The faster you grow, the more money you have in a bank account.
- 26:37Well, typically with e-commerce, the faster you grow,
- 26:40and the more cash it takes because you have to pre-finance all the inventory.
- 26:44So the more you can get that amount to zero or even negative, the better it is.
- 26:51Yeah, that's exactly what he did.
- 26:53um That's exactly.
- 26:56Here's the interesting thing.
- 26:57I want to contrast this slightly.
- 26:59So when it came to the beauty company, for example, Andy, who was my business partner um and I, we very much were a part of the cam, which said when we order the stock, pay for
- 27:17it.
- 27:17Cause then everything on the shelves I owe is mine.
- 27:21just because we'd heard the horror stories of people struggling later on down the lives to pay, not to pay, because they've not sold the stock quick enough, if that makes sense.
- 27:29So Jersey was a bootstrap company.
- 27:32didn't owe anybody anything.
- 27:35And so when we sold it, it had no liabilities other than obviously we had to pay the VAT.
- 27:41But that was about it.
- 27:43And so,
- 27:46That though creates this longer working capital cycle that you talked about.
- 27:55And I don't think it's because we're wrong.
- 27:56I'm curious to know what you think about how that strategy in itself and how we can do that well.
- 28:05So it's not about wrong or right because neither is wrong and neither is right.
- 28:09It's about priorities.
- 28:11It's about what's fit for you, for your risk profile, for your confidence and what actually fits the business and what is actually practically possible with suppliers and
- 28:20the situation.
- 28:22The approach you take is very, very conservative.
- 28:25You have no external risks.
- 28:29You don't owe anybody anything, but that means that you're paying for it.
- 28:34If you're
- 28:36keeping the payable to your supplier open for longer, that means you owe them money.
- 28:41And that gives some people don't mind, some people lose sleep over that.
- 28:45So that's where the personal preference comes in.
- 28:48It's more capital efficient, but it comes with a higher risk because you're basically trading on money that you borrow from your supplier.
- 28:58You're not paying interest over it, so it's free money, but it is still money that you owe to somebody else.
- 29:06If you neither is wrong or right, it's about risk profile.
- 29:11What are you comfortable with?
- 29:12Do you sleep better at night if you know that everything on the shelf is yours and you don't owe anybody from it?
- 29:21Or do you sleep better at night knowing that you don't have as much money tied up in the business and that is somebody else's money?
- 29:28Yeah, it's an interesting one, isn't it?
- 29:30I there's no right or wrong.
- 29:32think it's an interesting.
- 29:36It's just, guess I'm unique in that sense.
- 29:39Unique is probably the wrong word.
- 29:40There are people out there like me, but I like the idea of buying the stock straight away.
- 29:47And I tell you what happens because people say to me, well, why don't you just buy on credit?
- 29:50say you're going to buy 10 grand worth of stock, but the 10 grand in the bank.
- 29:54get the interest and at least then when the stocks due payment you interest.
- 29:59I've always found that actually if I'm going to give them 10k straight away, I can call them up and say, can we do a deal whereby I don't pay you the 10 grand I'll pay you nine
- 30:10and a half, but I'll pay cash upfront.
- 30:15I always have much bigger negotiations, more, what's the word I'm looking for?
- 30:22Much more weighty, much more power.
- 30:25Yes.
- 30:26In the negotiations, if I'm willing to pay cash upfront.
- 30:29Yes, but again, every business has a constraint.
- 30:34So for some it's cash, for some it's other things, it's profitability.
- 30:39So there's a, what you've done is you've traded timing of cashflow for more profit.
- 30:45So you can, I pay you upfront, but I'm going to get a lower price.
- 30:49For other businesses, it might be better to say, you know what, I'll pay a little bit higher price, but I only want to pay 20 % now and 80 % in net 90.
- 30:59If you're having a gross margin problem, increasing your profitability is probably the most important thing.
- 31:06But if your profitability is good and your growth is good, but you don't have access to capital, then getting cash or a loan essentially from your supplier might be the more
- 31:18valuable thing.
- 31:19So that's why there is no wrong or right.
- 31:20It's about what is appropriate for that business, for that risk profile.
- 31:25Yeah, that's true.
- 31:27So true.
- 31:28Let's talk a little bit then.
- 31:29I mean, I mentioned this at the start of the show.
- 31:31And this leads me nicely, Rob, into the, what did we call it?
- 31:37The death spiral of short-term things.
- 31:42So I've seen this recently whereby you have a company starting to trade.
- 31:50It's not making enough to cover salaries necessarily.
- 31:54And, but it's starting to make some money.
- 31:56Shopify comes along and says, Hey, would you like a Shopify loan?
- 32:00It's all pre-approved.
- 32:02Here's whatever $20,000.
- 32:03Just click here.
- 32:07And in the small print somewhere, these will be the fees.
- 32:10And what we're going to do is we're going to take a percentage of your sales going forward to pay back that loan.
- 32:16And you kind of go, Oh, that'd be nice to have the 20,000 pounds.
- 32:20I could give myself a little bit of extra cash.
- 32:23So you take the 20 grand next year, you find you're in the same boat.
- 32:26Only this time Shopify are offering you 40,000.
- 32:28And you need to borrow the 40,000 because you still really, you've not really recovered from borrowing the 20,000 and everything sort of compounded a bit that year.
- 32:38And this is why we called it, I think when we talked to the death spiral, because the year after that, all of a sudden I have to borrow 80,000.
- 32:43And it seems like we, we, we jump into this perpetual borrowing more and more money.
- 32:49You could argue.
- 32:51ah that money is unsecured from Shopify and it is secured on the business.
- 32:56So if it all goes peat-tongue, you don't lose your house.
- 33:00But I'm curious what your experience with Shopify loans is Rob, because I've never really talked about them on the show.
- 33:06I've just seen the effect of them and I'm excited to talk to you about them.
- 33:12I'm not so sure Shopify is going to be excited to talk about it because just to clarify, we're calling it Shopify here, but it's also Stripe, it's also QuickBooks, it's also...
- 33:23Basically, if anybody offers you money with such convenience, just click here and you get it.
- 33:28And by the way, there are some fixed terms.
- 33:31If it's so easy, you know there is a catch.
- 33:34And the interest rates, the cost of the capital, it is absolutely bat shit crazy high.
- 33:41Are there situations where that is the best or the right thing to do?
- 33:45Sure.
- 33:46But they are exceptions.
- 33:50You're essentially paying typically 20 % or so of interest on that money.
- 33:56Now, we just spoke about borrowing money from your suppliers at 0%.
- 34:00Or if you're borrowing it from your, if you privately lend it to the company so the company can use it, you're probably paying yourself maybe 8 or 10%.
- 34:10These guys, you're gonna pay 20%.
- 34:13On a business that's running at 10 % margins, every dollar you use from them shrinks your profits.
- 34:20We buy two.
- 34:24So like you said, you borrow one next year, your sales grow a bit, you take another bigger loan and you take out a bigger loan.
- 34:31And before you know it, more cash goes to repaying the loans than it goes to spending on marketing or spending on growth or paying your own salary.
- 34:44It is, we have a client and now I have to be a little bit careful how I describe it so that nobody can actually deduce it.
- 34:51They are now in eight figures in revenue.
- 34:54And I would not be surprised if they're not going to make it till the end of the year because they have so much external debt.
- 35:00The business, the gross margin is doing pretty okay, but their interest cost, their cost of financing is so high that I don't think they're going to survive.
- 35:10really interesting isn't it really powerful like i i mean again not to um i again want to be careful with what i say but um
- 35:26We've seen businesses go into administration because really the cost of that loan is crippling the business.
- 35:33Especially because it's not just the cost of the interest.
- 35:38It's the fact that there is a I am taking 17 % of all your future sales.
- 35:44And so in the UK, it was kind of like, well, for every hundred pounds, I have to pay 16, 17 pounds in VAT to the, you know, the taxman.
- 35:55Plus you're now taking 16, 17 pounds.
- 35:59So all of a sudden I'm down almost 40 quid.
- 36:03And that's before I've even got out of bed.
- 36:05And so from, so now you talk about great, if I had a 60 % growth margin, now it's down to 20 % and I've not done anything.
- 36:11You know, it's, it's proper crazy.
- 36:17your marketing spend is more than 20 % of your revenue as well.
- 36:20So then effectively you're below zero and then you haven't paid your own salary.
- 36:25Yeah, and you're or you're not paying the creditors.
- 36:27You're not paying your suppliers and there's everything is just getting put back on back.
- 36:31don't have to pay your suppliers because you can just take a new loan next year when you need to buy a new batch of inventory.
- 36:38So that's the psychology that I've seen happen.
- 36:44So they think, I don't have to pay the supplier now.
- 36:46I can just postpone that.
- 36:47I don't have to put money aside for that.
- 36:49And then because business is doing well, Shopify will offer me a better loan.
- 36:53Yes, they're going to offer you a bigger loan, but I wouldn't call it better.
- 36:58And that's why I call it the death spiral because you get stuck into taking out ever bigger loans.
- 37:02The more the company grows, the more you have to borrow.
- 37:06And the less you're going to end up with yourself.
- 37:08Yeah, absolutely.
- 37:10It is crazy.
- 37:11So how do we, suppose if now we've identified this and we've labeled it, how do we mitigate for it?
- 37:21How do we prevent ourselves going down that road or if we're on that roller coaster, how do we get off it?
- 37:32getting off it is actually remarkably difficult once you're on it far enough.
- 37:37know, especially in the US, there are a couple of local credit unions that actually help to refinance those things at more sustainable rates.
- 37:45One of our clients is now refinancing a batch of those loans that were going at 20 % at a community bank for, I think he's going to refinance it for eight in a longer period.
- 37:56So that makes it a lot more manageable.
- 37:58um In the end.
- 38:01What you're going to have to get out of it, you have to bite the bullet, cut everything, every cost that you can cut, make sure they paid off and then hit the throttle again in a
- 38:12more sustainable way.
- 38:14So that means lowering your own salary, cutting staff you don't need.
- 38:18Make sure that the company stays cashflow positive until everything's paid off and only if it's paid off.
- 38:25ideally you build up a little bit of a buffer again.
- 38:28then you can start putting the foot on the gas again.
- 38:33But that's the non-sexy, that's the hard way, but you have to clean it out first before you can double down.
- 38:41That's bit that, um, that they don't talk about when you take out the loans.
- 38:47It's like, you know, at some point that the debt comes calling and there will be stories of people that like, Oh, this loan saved my life.
- 38:53You know, we took out the loan and enabled us to buy some stock.
- 38:56sold all that stock out.
- 38:58It kickstarted our business and now we're doing this, that and the other.
- 39:01I would say that's the exception and not the norm personally.
- 39:07But there is this horrible, uncomfortable space where you have to start to think, how do I pay this back and what's the strategy for that?
- 39:16And it's, I don't know, maybe you've got some experience here, Rob, that can help us, but it doesn't feel like it's gonna take just a couple of weeks to do that.
- 39:27Depends on the scale.
- 39:29Depends on the scale.
- 39:31If you're a million dollar business and it's a $10,000 loan, that's a couple of weeks.
- 39:35Or maybe that's one month of not paying your own salary, get rid of the loan, get it over with.
- 39:41If you're talking about a million dollar business with 500K in loans, please don't let those exist.
- 39:47You're gonna talk about a lot longer periods.
- 39:49So the earlier you tackle this problem, the easier it is to do.
- 39:55But this all starts with the awareness of
- 39:58What does my profitability look like?
- 39:59How am I financing this?
- 40:01Am I borrowing money from the supplier?
- 40:03Am I funding everything myself?
- 40:05Because if you think I want to increase my profit with 2 % by paying my supplier upfront and making sure I can bargain hard there, but I'm paying for that with a Shopify loan,
- 40:16you're shooting yourself in the foot.
- 40:19So if you have the cash, you can do that.
- 40:22If you have to borrow the cash, I would rather have a slightly higher price for my supplier.
- 40:28but not have to borrow money elsewhere to pay for it.
- 40:32Yeah, no, absolutely.
- 40:34So how do we stop ourselves maybe getting into the needs to sort of fall into this spiral?
- 40:41very clear understanding of gross margin.
- 40:44What's your revenue, what's your gross margin, and how is like for every batch of inventory that you buy, what's the cash profile there?
- 40:51When do you spend how much?
- 40:53When do you pay the shipping?
- 40:54When do you pay the VAT?
- 40:55When do you pay customs?
- 40:58When do you start receiving money?
- 40:59How does that profile look like and can you change that?
- 41:04The second thing is make sure you have enough gross margin because a higher gross margin solves for a lot of problems.
- 41:10If your gross margin is high enough, you can afford a little bit higher cost of capital or you can afford to spend more on marketing to push up the sales faster.
- 41:20If you don't know your margins and you don't know your own capital, then you're blind on this part and you might push yourself in the corner that all of a sudden you have an empty
- 41:29bank account and you have to use that kind of loans.
- 41:32Yeah.
- 41:33So it's really staying on top of it, having everything transparent.
- 41:37That's the best recipe.
- 41:39Yeah, I mean, what you're saying in essence, Rob, is you have to plan.
- 41:45And we're notoriously bad at planning, aren't we?
- 41:47And I think especially if you're entrepreneurial, planning is not something you'd like to do or think about because you this blind optimism guides everything, which is both good
- 41:56and bad, I think, in many ways.
- 41:58uh But we have to sit down and we have to take it seriously and we have to plan and start to think about how are we going to achieve what we're going to achieve.
- 42:08Yes.
- 42:08And this is why, again, when we're going back to old school weights here, Rob, they said to us right at the start, it came to business, you needed, I think it was three or four
- 42:19key people, one of which was a finance guy, finance director.
- 42:27Obviously when you're a young company, unless you're a finance guy, you're not going to go out and get a finance director.
- 42:32And this is why the fractional CMO type things work.
- 42:35think quite well, don't they?
- 42:36Why you guys do quite well is because it's like, you don't need to now.
- 42:41We'll do that for you.
- 42:42We'll be specialist here, but finance is a really key pillar as his operations, um, as his sales and marketing, right?
- 42:49So, um, I think you have to see finance in your business as important as marketing.
- 42:57Yes.
- 42:58From my perspective, and I'll admit I'm biased here, finance is the one part of the business where everything comes together.
- 43:05Where you're purchasing and you're marketing and you're sales and you're HR, everything comes together in the finance part.
- 43:11Because in the end, you have an X amount of dollars in the bank account and you can spend that on marketing.
- 43:15You can pay your supplier, you can hire a new person.
- 43:19But finance is where it all comes together.
- 43:21It's like the centerpiece that everything connects to.
- 43:24Yeah.
- 43:24you have to be on top of that.
- 43:26And it's not rocket science.
- 43:27mean, you don't need a finance director unless you're over 20 million.
- 43:31uh You really don't need a full-time finance director.
- 43:36But make sure you have somebody surrounding you on your side that knows what they're talking about.
- 43:40Could be a fractional CFO like us.
- 43:42Maybe you like it yourself.
- 43:44To some extent, chat GPT is actually, or any AI tool can do part of that.
- 43:49Just make sure you're aware when it's hallucinating.
- 43:55especially when it says, yes, take the loan.
- 43:57Exactly, So don't blindly trust it, but it can do 70-80 % of it.
- 44:05really interesting point, isn't it, about AI and where, especially now where you've got things like Claude Cowork, which is just fascinating me right now.
- 44:13And the ability for it to analyze finance information.
- 44:17It's like, I need to understand this data.
- 44:19Give me a dashboard with these numbers.
- 44:22I think is a great place to start if you're just starting out in Ecom and you don't want to do finance.
- 44:26Just plug everything into, I use Claude, I don't use chat GPT, but I think that kind of thing makes sense to me.
- 44:34But like you say,
- 44:35You have to have the ability to check what is making up.
- 44:40AI is really good with the data, the interpretation of the data.
- 44:44What does that mean?
- 44:45And how does it compare to your plans and your vision and your market positioning?
- 44:49That is where the human side still is very, very critical.
- 44:52uh The visualization of the data, extracting all the data and making that accessible and visible.
- 45:00AI can do that pretty damn well.
- 45:02But how does that relate to, am I comfortable to launch a new product?
- 45:08Yeah.
- 45:08is that going to cost me and can I?
- 45:10That's where it's still human judgment.
- 45:12Yeah, still need that nuance, don't you?
- 45:15But it's I mean, all the things you talked about earlier, gross margin, CAC12 TV and working capital cycle.
- 45:20AI actually can help you figure out those numbers pretty reasonably well, I would have thought.
- 45:25Yes.
- 45:27Yes.
- 45:27If the data is clean, yes.
- 45:29Yeah, yeah, absolutely.
- 45:32Rob, listen, man, I'm aware of time.
- 45:34We're just getting started.
- 45:38And I feel like we probably I don't know, do you think we'll get lawyers uh like those from the Shopify lawyers?
- 45:44I don't think we will.
- 45:45I think we've been okay.
- 45:48Just to reiterate, it's just gonna go up on my wall.
- 45:53If it does cease and desist orders talking about Shopify loans.
- 45:58I think it is worth saying, obviously, we are not criticizing Shopify per se or its company practices.
- 46:05We are questioning whether high interest loans are suitable or right for your business.
- 46:10And please do think twice before doing so.
- 46:21I that's probably a good enough sort of get out clause, isn't it really?
- 46:25Um, but I love that.
- 46:28Rob, I've got to that part of the show where I ask for a question for me.
- 46:32This is where I ask my guests for a question.
- 46:35You're going to give me a question, Rob, and I'm going to go away and answer it on social media.
- 46:39So if you want to know how I'm going to answer the question coming up from Rob, come follow me on LinkedIn.
- 46:43You'll find me there answering questions.
- 46:45But Rob, what is your question for me?
- 46:49It's a two part one.
- 46:51When is the AI bubble going to burst?
- 46:53And what's the impact of that on e-commerce in your view?
- 46:57Ooh, very good.
- 46:58Okay, if you want to know my answers those questions, I said, come follow me on LinkedIn, I'm Edmondson.
- 47:02Just find me there.
- 47:03We're gonna have some fun with that.
- 47:05But Rob, listen, I love the show, man.
- 47:08I love the conversation.
- 47:09Thank you for just being so candid with us genuinely.
- 47:13This is why I love and I know it's I know I'm stereotyping when I talk about people from the Netherlands just being utterly candid.
- 47:20But this is why I love talking to people.
- 47:23My son lives in the Netherlands and I just love the just the sheer, no, this is the truth.
- 47:28What's wrong with you?
- 47:29Just accept it and get on with it.
- 47:31Right.
- 47:32I love that.
- 47:33So thanks for coming on, man.
- 47:34If people want to reach out to you, if they want to find out more about what you do, maybe they've got questions for you.
- 47:39I don't know.
- 47:40What's the best way to do it.
- 47:42The easiest way is to either connect with me on LinkedIn or go to connectrob.com.
- 47:46There is a scheduling link there to just schedule a call with me.
- 47:49That's the easiest way.
- 47:51Awesome.
- 47:52We will of course have those links in the show notes as well.
- 47:55And if you're watching on YouTube, you can just read for those in the description.
- 47:58If you're on your podcast player, they will just scroll down, they'll be there somewhere.
- 48:02And of course, they'll also be on the website at ecommercepodcast.net.
- 48:06And if you're subscribed to the newsletter, they'll be in your inbox.
- 48:08Of course, if you're not subscribed to the newsletter, why not?
- 48:11You should be.
- 48:12Absolutely, you should be.
- 48:13That's just what I'm saying.
- 48:14That's my marketing spiel over.
- 48:18Yes, well done Matt for the marketing.
- 48:21Rob listen, at the end of the show, for those that have stayed, we love to do this section called saving the best till last.
- 48:29This is where I like to hand over the microphone metaphorically to you my guest for the next two or three minutes and just ask of all the things that we've talked about, what are
- 48:40your top tips for our listeners?
- 48:41What is the best value that you can give them?
- 48:44The mic is yours my friend, over to you.
- 48:48We have already covered it, the most important, the most impactful low hanging fruit, make a sales forecast.
- 48:58What revenue are you targeting for?
- 49:00What product is that coming from?
- 49:03What does that mean for your inventory?
- 49:05What does that mean for your purchasing timing?
- 49:08What does that mean for your cash flow?
- 49:10It is a manual model.
- 49:12You can use AI tools for it, but I would really recommend you to do a simplified version of this in Excel because the thinking behind it is critical.
- 49:20Thinking about what you plan to sell, in what period in the year and why, and how that cascades down to your purchasing and your cash flow.
- 49:29It is an eye opener.
- 49:31You're going to be wrong and that's fine, but just a thought process and ideally iterating that every month.
- 49:37and updating it based on the actual information so you get a little bit closer, it's going to make you feel so much more in control of your business.
- 49:47If you're having a gross margin issue, it's not going to magically solve everything, but it gives you much more clarity and much more comfort, and therefore it makes it easier to
- 49:54make decisions.
- 49:55So simple forecast, sales, uh inventory and purchasing, and you're already halfway there.
- 50:05That's wonderful.
- 50:06The sales forecast.
- 50:09And do you use Excel, not AI um or whatever spreadsheet you particularly use, but yeah.
- 50:16Yeah.
- 50:16about, if I'm gonna run this campaign in November, I'm gonna have to make the purchase in May.
- 50:23But what if I can do that in July?
- 50:25Or what if I can change that with this product, whatever.
- 50:29That thought process is where the value is.
- 50:32Not the actual numbers help, and of course they give clarity, but it's the thought process of you understanding how on the finer side your business works.
- 50:39That's where the value is.
- 50:41And if you move that part to AI, you're just gonna get the numbers and you don't know if they're true and you're missing out on the value of you understanding the finance side of
- 50:50your own business.
- 50:51So cool.
- 50:52That's like, think what I'm hearing you're saying, what you're saying, Rob is once you've got the base in, you're asking what if, and something that gives you the ability to ask
- 51:02what if is actually really freeing and it's quite creative and it removes bottlenecks.
- 51:10It enables you to dream a little bit and it enables you to find solutions that you wouldn't have thought of.
- 51:16And you're right.
- 51:17I actually think in that through that you don't get that with AI.
- 51:21and it's the thought process which is critical.
- 51:24Rob, thank you so much for coming on man.
- 51:26Loved it, loved it, loved it.
- 51:28Really appreciate it.
- 51:29We'll have to get you on again at some point to tell us the rest of the things that we need to be thinking about.
- 51:34And who knows what country you'll be in when that happens.
- 51:36ah But thank you.
- 51:39My pleasure.
- 51:40Thanks for having me.
- 51:42Well, there you go.
- 51:43That's another wrap on a phenomenal podcast.
- 51:46Thanks for joining me wherever you are in the world.
- 51:48I hope you've enjoyed it.
- 51:49Make sure you like, subscribe and do all of that good stuff.
- 51:52As I said, the links to uh Rob will be in the show notes and that also be on the website and that also be in the newsletter.
- 51:59In all seriousness, we do have a newsletter if you're not yet subscribed and would like to get that.
- 52:03It's not a spam thing.
- 52:04We just send you the notes and the links from the podcast.
- 52:07And it's as simple as that.
- 52:08So do come and join us on that.
- 52:11also have more cohort groups opening.
- 52:14So with cohort, we basically get e-commerce entrepreneurs together every month on Zoom.
- 52:20We just chat about e-commerce.
- 52:21It's a totally free group to join.
- 52:23We have people present their websites, what they're doing, what they're up to.
- 52:26The whole group sort of joins in and goes, have you thought about this or that?
- 52:29And we critique each other and we support each other.
- 52:32And it's just phenomenal.
- 52:33There are more cohort groups now opening up.
- 52:35So if you're interested in cohorts, uh come.
- 52:38to the website ecommercepodcast.net and find out more about it.
- 52:42But that is it from me.
- 52:43That's it from Rob.
- 52:44Thank you so much for joining us.
- 52:46Have a phenomenal week wherever you are in world.
- 52:48I'll see you next time.
- 52:49Bye for now.