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12 Thinking Traps that are sabotaging you · Hardiness with Dr Paul Taylor

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  Speaker 1: Everyone, Welcome to another edition of Wisdom Wednesdays. Today, I
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  Speaker 1: want to talk about something that affects every single one
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  Speaker 1: of us pretty much every single day, and most of
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  Speaker 1: the time we don't even know what's happening. I'm talking
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  Speaker 1: about cognitive biases. Now. Our cognitive bias is basically a
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  Speaker 1: predictable error in thinking. And it's not because we're stupid.
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  Speaker 1: It's because our brains are trying to save energy. The
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  Speaker 1: brain is an efficiency machine that uses shortcuts, heuristics, It
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  Speaker 1: uses rules of thumb, It takes limited information, limited time,
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  Speaker 1: limited mental bad width, and it tries to make the
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  Speaker 1: best decision it can. That's what researchers call bounded rationality.
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  Speaker 1: We're not perfectly rational machines. We're humans operating with limited
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  Speaker 1: cognitive resources. And sometimes these shortcuts are useful. If you
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  Speaker 1: are a hunter gatherer and you hear a russell in
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  Speaker 1: the bushes, it's probably better to jump back or run
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  Speaker 1: away quickly than to conduct a full analysis of whether
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  Speaker 1: it's a snake or a stick. But in modern life,
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  Speaker 1: especially with social media algorithms, advertising, political tribes, outrage, news,
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  Speaker 1: infinite information, and constant stimulation, these shortcuts can become traps.
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  Speaker 1: And really affect our quality of life. So today I'm
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  Speaker 1: going to walk you through twelve cognitive biases that get
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  Speaker 1: in our way and a little tip about what you
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  Speaker 1: can do about them. But I want you to think
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  Speaker 1: about your own advice to yourself. So let's start with
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  Speaker 1: the big one, which is confirmation bias. This is our
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  Speaker 1: tendency to look for, to favor, and to remember information
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  Speaker 1: that confirms what we already believe. So the confirmation bias
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  Speaker 1: is defined by scientists as selectively searching for or overinterpreting
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  Speaker 1: information in a way that confirms our preconceptions or already
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  Speaker 1: held beliefs. And this is where the algorithm becomes dangerous.
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  Speaker 1: And I know you know what I mean when I'm
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  Speaker 1: talking about algorithm. The algorithm doesn't occur whether or not
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  Speaker 1: you're wise. It curs whether you stay on the platform.
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  Speaker 1: So if you click on one video saying seed oils are
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  Speaker 1: toxic or another video saying seed oils are harmless, the
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  Speaker 1: algorithm quickly learns a hah, this is what keeps you engaged.
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  Speaker 1: Then it feeds you more of the same, and before
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  Speaker 1: long you're not researching anymore. You're living in a personalized
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  Speaker 1: confirmation machine. That's often backed up by the echo chamber,
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  Speaker 1: where you are interacting with other people who believe the
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  Speaker 1: same And what happens is you don't see the world
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  Speaker 1: as it is. You see the world as your feed
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  Speaker 1: has trained you to see it. So what's the so?
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  Speaker 1: What here? So once a week deliberately ask what would
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  Speaker 1: I believe if the opposite were true? Or even better,
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  Speaker 1: what evidence would change my mind? If the answer is nothing,
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  Speaker 1: you're not thinking. You're defending. So the second one is
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  Speaker 1: something called avaliability heuristic. This is when we judge the
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  Speaker 1: likelihood or importance of something by how easily examples come
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  Speaker 1: to mind. In other words, if it's a vivid, recent, emotional,
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  Speaker 1: or repeated, we think it's more common than it really is.
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  Speaker 1: This is why people can be terrified of plane crashes
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  Speaker 1: but casually text while driving. It's why one shark attack
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  Speaker 1: makes everybody afraid of the ocean, even though far more
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  Speaker 1: people are harmed by boring everyday things like poor sleep, inactivity, alcohol, loneliness,
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  Speaker 1: or metabolic disease. And modern media really weaponizes this availability heuristic.
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  Speaker 1: The most dramatic story wins attention, and what wins attention
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  Speaker 1: starts to feel like reality. So the sowat here is
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  Speaker 1: that when something scurs, you ask is this common or
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  Speaker 1: is it just highly visible? So the next is something
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  Speaker 1: that I really learned when I was traveling around the world,
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  Speaker 1: particularly in India and haggling, and it's called anchoring bias.
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  Speaker 1: This is when the first number, idea or piece of
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  Speaker 1: information we receive becomes the reference point for everything after it.
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  Speaker 1: So if I tell you or you see you go
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  Speaker 1: into a shop and you see the bottle of wine
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  Speaker 1: was ninety bucks and is now forty five, you feel
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  Speaker 1: like you're getting a bargain. But if I simply told
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  Speaker 1: you it was forty five bucks, you might think that
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  Speaker 1: it's expensive. So the first number anchors you and then
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  Speaker 1: the second number gives you the comparator. So this happens
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  Speaker 1: all the time in negotiations, in pricing, in salaries and
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  Speaker 1: diets and property, even in self worth and actually people
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  Speaker 1: who live in Australia will know Colds and Woodworth. The
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  Speaker 1: two major supermarkets were busted for having false seales. Right,
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  Speaker 1: so they put something on at a higher price for
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  Speaker 1: like one day and then they go bang, the price
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  Speaker 1: has been slashed. This can also affect our self esteem.
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  Speaker 1: If you were told when you were a kid that
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  Speaker 1: you were not academic, or you weren't sporty, you were
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  Speaker 1: too sensitive or not confident. That can actually become an
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  Speaker 1: anchor and your brain can start adjusting around it. So
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  Speaker 1: the so what here is to ask yourself what am
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  Speaker 1: I actually anchored to here? And then ask what would
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  Speaker 1: I think if I'd never seen the first number, the
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  Speaker 1: label or the opinion right? What would my belief be? Then?
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  Speaker 1: So the next one is status quo bias. So this
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  Speaker 1: is our preference for things to stay the same even
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  Speaker 1: when change, we be better and it particularly happens when
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  Speaker 1: we have really tough decision. And I'll give you a
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  Speaker 1: brilliant example. It's about rates of organ donations. So you'll
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  Speaker 1: say that there are certain countries such as the Netherlands
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  Speaker 1: where organ donation rates are twenty seven and a half percent.
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  Speaker 1: The UK was seventeen point two percent, Germany was twelve percent,
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  Speaker 1: and Denmark was just four point three percent. But there
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  Speaker 1: was a bunch of other countries such as Austria, France,
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  Speaker 1: Hungary that were ninety nine plus percent. Portugal was there
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  Speaker 1: as well, Belgium was ninety eight and Sweden at eighty
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  Speaker 1: nine percent. And so what's the difference. And what psychologists
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  Speaker 1: found out is that it is whether or not you
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  Speaker 1: have to opt in or opt out. And it turns
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  Speaker 1: out that organ donation rates and all those countries that
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  Speaker 1: I've talked about happened when you get your driver's license
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  Speaker 1: or renew your driver's license. And in the countries with
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  Speaker 1: low levels such as the UK, Germany and all of those,
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  Speaker 1: you actually have to opt in. You have to tick
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  Speaker 1: the box to say yes, I'll donate my organs. All
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  Speaker 1: those other ones with the super high rates, it's opt out.
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  Speaker 1: And it doesn't mean that Austrians are twenty times more
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  Speaker 1: compassionate than Dan's. It's because the default has actually changed, right,
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  Speaker 1: and so particularly with strong and most of the decisions,
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  Speaker 1: the brain just kind of goes wibble and it goes
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  Speaker 1: for the default. Now, this affects us at a lower level.
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  Speaker 1: This affects us every day. If your default is uber eights,
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  Speaker 1: if it's come home and get changed into your pajamas,
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  Speaker 1: watch Netflix, have your phone beside your bed, no morning sunlight,
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  Speaker 1: very low movement, and checking your email first thing in
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  Speaker 1: the morning, then your life will follow that path of
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  Speaker 1: least resistance and you will continue to do those things.
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  Speaker 1: So the so what here is to not rely on
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  Speaker 1: motivations to actually change the default. Put your runners beside
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  Speaker 1: your bed, get your phone out of your room at night,
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  Speaker 1: and pre book a gym class. Right. Make the better behavior,
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  Speaker 1: the easier behavior, so as you don't just go with
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  Speaker 1: the status quo. And that's why most of us are.
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  Speaker 1: Lots of us actually get stuck in these habits that
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  Speaker 1: are really not serving us. So the next one is
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  Speaker 1: something called sunk cost fallacy. That's when we continue with
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  Speaker 1: something because we've already invested time, money, energy or identity
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  Speaker 1: into it, even when it's clearly no longer serving us.
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  Speaker 1: And this shows up everywhere. This is why people stay
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  Speaker 1: in bad relationships because they've been together for five or
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  Speaker 1: ten or fifteen years. They stay in careers they hate
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  Speaker 1: because they spent ten or fifteen years building them. They
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  Speaker 1: keep reading a ship book because they're halfway through. They
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  Speaker 1: keep defending an idea because they've argued for it publicly.
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  Speaker 1: Dietisians Australia take note. But the past is not a
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  Speaker 1: good reason to making a poor decision right. So the
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  Speaker 1: real question should be what is the best decision from
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  Speaker 1: here right now? If I was starting today, would I
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  Speaker 1: choose this again? If the answers no, then the better
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  Speaker 1: move might be to change it. So the next one
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  Speaker 1: is negativity bias, and that is our tendency to give
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  Speaker 1: more attention and weigh to negative information and positive information.
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  Speaker 1: And this one makes sense from an evolutionary perspective. Missing
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  Speaker 1: a good opportunity might cost you lunch, Missing a threat
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  Speaker 1: might cost your life, so the brain prioritizes threat. But
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  Speaker 1: in modern life this means that our attention gets hijacked
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  Speaker 1: by outrage, by criticism, by negative news, and online conflict.
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  Speaker 1: And this is why one nasty comment can wipe out
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  Speaker 1: five different five good compliments, or one bad meaning can
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  Speaker 1: ruin a good day. One headline can make the whole
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  Speaker 1: world for like it's shit. So the SOWA here is
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  Speaker 1: don't pretend the negative isn't there, but train yourself to
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  Speaker 1: see the full picture. Ask yourself what else could be true?
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  Speaker 1: And that one question can pull your brain back out
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  Speaker 1: of threat mode and put it into perspective. And I
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  Speaker 1: think a regular gratitude ritual is also a good counterbalance
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  Speaker 1: because it trains us to see the positive. Next up
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  Speaker 1: is the bandwagon effect, and that is when we adopt
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  Speaker 1: beliefs or behaviors because lots of other people are doing it.
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  Speaker 1: Think of it as the probability of you adopting a
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  Speaker 1: belief increasing based on a number of people who hold
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  Speaker 1: that belief or doing that action. And this is basically
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  Speaker 1: the engine of trends, of memes, of outrage, of fashion
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  Speaker 1: wellness fads, financial bubbles, and political movements, and buying toilet
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  Speaker 1: roll during pandemics. If enough people are doing it, we
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  Speaker 1: assume there must be something to it. But popularity is
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  Speaker 1: not proof. A million people can be wrong at the
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  Speaker 1: same time. So the take on here is when you
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  Speaker 1: feel pulled by the crowd, pause and ask yourself, do
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  Speaker 1: I actually believe this or that I just want to
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  Speaker 1: belong Their belonging is powerful, but it can also outsource
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  Speaker 1: your thinking in unhelpful ways. The next one in group bias.
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  Speaker 1: That is our tendency to favor people who feel or
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  Speaker 1: look like us and distrust people who feel or look
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  Speaker 1: like them or the others. And it shows up in politics,
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  Speaker 1: in sport, in nutrition, tribes, parenting, styles of workplaces, online communities,
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  Speaker 1: it's everywhere. Once someone is in our tribe, we tend
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  Speaker 1: to give them more grace. Someone's outside of our tribe,
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  Speaker 1: we tend to judge them more harshly. And the problem
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  Speaker 1: is that truth doesn't belong to your tribe. Your side
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  Speaker 1: can be wrong, the other side can have a point,
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  Speaker 1: and the two things can be true at the same time.
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  Speaker 1: So one real good take on here is to ask
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  Speaker 1: yourself what is the strongest argument from the other side.
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  Speaker 1: If you can't answer that, you probably don't understand the
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  Speaker 1: issue well enough. Then we're on to present bias. That's
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  Speaker 1: our tenancy to prioritize immediate comfort over future benefit. Ever said,
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  Speaker 1: I'll start Monday. It's why we scroll instead of sleeping.
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  Speaker 1: It's why we choose the double being hit now and
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  Speaker 1: leave tomorrow's self to clean up the mess. Modern life
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  Speaker 1: is basically a present bias casino. Every app, notification, food
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  Speaker 1: delivery service, streaming platform, an online store is designed to
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  Speaker 1: make immediate gratification frictionless. Now the practical take home here
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  Speaker 1: or the so what is to ask, what would tomorrow
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  Speaker 1: me thank me for doing today? Right? Have a think
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  Speaker 1: about that, what would the tomorrow me thank me for
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  Speaker 1: doing today? And next is over confidence. That is when
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  Speaker 1: we tend to overestimate our knowledge, our abilities, or our
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  Speaker 1: accuracy and this can make us take greater risks, and
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  Speaker 1: it's everywhere. It's the beginner who thinks they know everything.
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  Speaker 1: I'm thinking, I don't know why of a certain sixteen
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  Speaker 1: year old boy in my house, but experts know enough
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  Speaker 1: to be cautious. Over Confidence is dangerous because it shuts
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  Speaker 1: down curiosity. You stop asking questions, you stop checking assumptions,
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  Speaker 1: you stop listening, and in modern life, confidence often gets
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  Speaker 1: mistaken for competence. The largest person in the room is
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  Speaker 1: not always the wisest. So the take on here is
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  Speaker 1: ask yourself, how could I be wrong? That's not a weakness,
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  Speaker 1: that's actually intellectual humility, and it's part of the scientific method. Okay,
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  Speaker 1: So the second last one is outcome bias. That is,
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  Speaker 1: judging the quality of a decision purely by the result,
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  Speaker 1: rather than the process that lead to it. So when
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  Speaker 1: someone makes a reckless investment and gets lucky, we call
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  Speaker 1: them a genius. Right If someone makes a thoughtful decision
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  Speaker 1: and gets unlucky, we often call it a mistake. But
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  Speaker 1: a good outcome doesn't always mean a good decision, and
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  Speaker 1: a bad outcome doesn't always mean a bad decision. So
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  Speaker 1: this is a big impact in health, business, parenting, sport leadership,
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  Speaker 1: all of this stuff. Sometimes the process was right and
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  Speaker 1: the result was unlucky. Sometimes the result was good and
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  Speaker 1: the process was shithouse. So the take them here is
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  Speaker 1: to review the process, not just the outcome, and ask yourself,
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  Speaker 1: based on what I knew at the time, did I
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  Speaker 1: make a good decision? Okay, now onto the last one.
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  Speaker 1: This is the humbling one because if you've been listening
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  Speaker 1: to this, you probably thought, oh, yeah, my partner does that,
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  Speaker 1: or my mate does that, or the people on the
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  Speaker 1: other side of politics there like that, or that's those
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  Speaker 1: wellness influencers, that's my boss, And maybe it is. But
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  Speaker 1: if you you don't recognize any of those in yourself,
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  Speaker 1: you likely suffer from the last one, which is blind
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  Speaker 1: spot bias. That is the tendency to recognize cognitive biases
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  Speaker 1: in other people more easily than we recognize them in ourselves.
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  Speaker 1: So the whole point of this podcast episode is to
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  Speaker 1: ask where is this me? Where am I seeking confirmation?
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  Speaker 1: Where am I anchored? Where am I staying with something
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  Speaker 1: because of sunk costs? Where am I following the herd?
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  Speaker 1: Where am I confusing what's vivid with what's true? And
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  Speaker 1: where am I defending the status co because change is uncomfortable.
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  Speaker 1: So here's the takeaway. Your brain is doing exactly what
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  Speaker 1: it's evolved to do to save energy, to avoid threats,
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  Speaker 1: to seek belonging, preserve identity, and make fast decisions with
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  Speaker 1: incomplete information. But wisdom is the capacity to pause and
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  Speaker 1: notice the shortcut, to question the default why in your lens,
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  Speaker 1: challenge the algorithm them, and change your environment so better
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  Speaker 1: choice becomes easier. That's it for this week, folks, Catch
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  Speaker 1: you next time.