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The Rugby World Cup Contenders - What can each team expect going in? · The Rugby Muscle Podcast

• 0:00
  Okay, I think this is going to be a better way of predicting and discussing what's going to happen in this upcoming World Cup.
• 0:08
  As a recording, we are one month away from the start.
• 0:12
  Let's get into this and hopefully give me a little bit of redemption from my last video where I predicted the hole.
• 0:18
  World cup.
• 0:29
  All right.
• 0:29
  So what's going on everyone?
• 0:30
  It's tj here from rugby muscle.
• 0:31
  Once again, i'm looking forward Towards the rugby world cup and i'm also looking back at my predictions that I did a couple weeks back thank you guys so much for everyone that commented and interacted on that one love to see and hear from you once again in the comments below.
• 0:46
  Let me know what you think of my predictions here.
• 0:49
  But I think this is going to be a better way of doing it.
• 0:51
  Rather than predict out every game and then, like, the consequences from one game one week, like, bleed into every single following week.
• 0:59
  Rather than do that, and because there's games that are like 50 50s, that if predicted one way mean a significant thing, if they're predicted the other way also mean a significant thing, and it just, the way it all plays out, it made for a fun activity and a fun video.
• 1:13
  But I don't think it's a practical way of looking ahead to this year's World Cup.
• 1:17
  Because I think this way makes a lot more sense to me.
• 1:20
  We're looking at the different bands of contenders.
• 1:22
  Rather than predicting out...
• 1:24
  Every single match and if I get one wrong, like the whole shape of the world cup is skewed rather than do that We're going to look at each sort of band of contenders for the world cup and I say contenders because the The nations that have just about qualified shout out to all of them, you know, your portugal's your uruguay's chile Etc.
• 1:48
  Shout out to you guys, but Realistically these these teams aren't contenders They're just going to be happy to get one win And so they're not even going to get a mention, in this video What we're going to look at is teams that are going to be viable contenders.
• 2:01
  So Before we actually get into the ones I think can win we're going to look at some teams I think if they get it together they can ruffle some feathers This isn't to say I think like I don't think these teams are going to win.
• 2:13
  That's Quite like it would be a shock if any of these teams Ended up winning the world cup like a major like probably one of the biggest shocks In the history of sport if any of these teams were to go on and win the world cup, but with that being said They're all capable of ruffling some feathers.
• 2:31
  So first off we've got samoa.
• 2:34
  They already beat japan in the Pacific nations cup.
• 2:39
  I think they've got a good chance of beating them again in the pool stages They look good.
• 2:43
  They look like the most settled Potentially out of Fiji, but they, like, no one was talking about Samoa when they changed the international laws to allow, you know, capped players to switch allegiances.
• 2:57
  Everyone was talking about Tonga, and rightly so, because Tonga have bolstered their squad quite a lot, but Samoa have sort of snuck under the radar here, and they have got a good squad together.
• 3:07
  And as with all the Pacific Island nations, Because they have more time together in a world cup year than normal Like that can only mean good things for them.
• 3:17
  And I think that they they could absolutely upset definitely upset england or argentina I think they're probably going to be favorites to beat japan So that season being third but if they beat england or argentina that could potentially even see them making it into the quarterfinals Do they get beyond that like?
• 3:33
  Probably not did I get beyond I mean and if they get to the semi final like It's going to be a stretch each step of the way you you can question Each game individually and see them progress and you could do that with each individual team and country in this tier But whether they're actually going to have enough to get all the way is, is almost certainly way beyond them.
• 3:55
  Same thing for Italy, right?
• 3:56
  I could see them having a miracle game against France.
• 4:01
  It's hard against New Zealand.
• 4:02
  New Zealand is different, but France, sometimes you can see Italy stepping up.
• 4:06
  It could happen.
• 4:07
  But let's be honest, like, they're not gonna progress and even, like, even if they make that miracle game against France or New Zealand, and they make it happen and they somehow get out of that pool, they're not gonna get out of that pool.
• 4:19
  But as they say, hypothetically, they somehow do.
• 4:22
  Who have they got to meet them in the next game?
• 4:25
  Either South Africa or or Ireland.
• 4:29
  So, yeah, good luck to you guys.
• 4:31
  So, you know, again, it's not a knock on their...
• 4:34
  Quality of their team or not their ability to pull off one upset But when you win a world cup, it's got to be game after game after game after game That's why I think predicting this way and looking at the teams this way makes for a lot more sense and again, even this could potentially be controversial people are gonna get mad at me for this video for sure, but we'll we'll go on anyway.
• 4:54
  So next we've got georgia Again, could beat anyone in their group.
• 4:59
  They're in the group, I believe, with Australia and Wales and Fiji and Portugal.
• 5:05
  They could beat anyone in their group, but they could, they're probably not gonna beat everyone.
• 5:08
  Like, that's, and that's could be a decent rule of thumb for all the teams in this tier.
• 5:13
  They could, they could beat most of the teams in the day.
• 5:18
  Will they beat all of them?
• 5:20
  And will they keep progressing and through the quarterfinals, semifinals?
• 5:23
  Probably not.
• 5:24
  Tonga.
• 5:26
  Tonga, unfortunately, just have a much tougher group.
• 5:28
  Ireland, South Africa, I just don't see them winning against those two teams.
• 5:32
  Particularly with the way that Ireland and South Africa play.
• 5:35
  It's just a bruising, tough game to, like, They'll do, they'll find it really hard just to get into those games.
• 5:43
  Scotland, again, they could upset them because Scotland are a little bit less predictable than Ireland and South Africa and they're not just going to smash it up front but Again, on their day, they could pull up one upset against one of those teams, but like, it's a tall, tall order for them to even make the quarterfinals.
• 6:00
  And once again, if they make the quarterfinals, who's facing them?
• 6:03
  France or new zealand.
• 6:04
  So again, it's just it's going to be a bridge too far for them to make the the semifinals or the final Fiji on the other hand have a genuinely good chance of getting to the quarterfinals And if they get to the quarterfinals, they're facing them probably out of form england or argentina That that's bodes quite well for them I think they've They could actually go quite far and you could even see potentially looking at this the way this is going to pan out.
• 6:32
  There could be a couple upsets and there could be a Fiji Samoa quarterfinal which means either Fiji or Samoa make the semis.
• 6:39
  Are they going to get any further?
• 6:40
  Probably not but that's, that could potentially if there's a couple upsets be a scenario where like again that's still upsets happening for them to get that far.
• 6:49
  The final two teams are the ones where people might get mad at me for this.
• 6:53
  But Scotland I just don't think have the...
• 6:56
  Sustained quality to really make an effort or an effort to go and win this world cup.
• 7:01
  I think they could Be island or south africa on their day I don't think that I have the squad to be both island and south africa and win their group and once again if they do by like outperform really do their best and get out of their group who have they got to face in the semis new zealand or or france And that's just the way it goes It would be a huge upset for them to even make it out of the group It would be an even bigger and i'd say on the scale of fiji or italy or argentina winning the world cup scotland It's just going to be that much of a like that big of a miracle if they win it Argentina definitely do have quality throughout their team Los Pumas can beat anyone on their day but winning a World Cup as I've already sort of alluded to is about winning week after week after week and I just don't see them having the squad to To really do that and to upset the bigger nations after one and if like they possibly could do it It's a really outside chance along with the rest of the teams In this third tier that if they get it together, they can rustle ruffle some feathers.
• 8:07
  I think that's That's all the hope is of these seven teams is If they really do get it together, they could cause some upsets, they can have a good time in the World Cup, but realistically, they have no chance of actually winning.
• 8:21
  Next we've got teams that need to pull something out that I haven't quite seen yet, but they still have a slim hope to go on and win it.
• 8:29
  This is more an indication of the way the the pools have shaped out than anything.
• 8:33
  This isn't really an indication of the talent that these teams have, it's more of an indication of How this world cup works.
• 8:39
  So in this band, we've got australia We've got england and yes, we've got wales I wouldn't have included wales if I'd have made this video last week But I do actually think that they've got some level of quality that they could actually win enough games To go on and actually win the World Cup is it is are they favorites?
• 8:59
  No Like it's still gonna be an upset if they were to win it like it would be if England or Australia Were to win it as well.
• 9:05
  And if you disagree with me, of course, let me know in the comments below But I think the way I've seen it up until now is these three teams can all be one bigger nation Like not easily, but it's all within their capabilities.
• 9:21
  You saw that with Australia almost upset in New Zealand last week.
• 9:25
  You've seen that with Australia on their day, always pulling off a decent performance when they, when they really need to, when you least expect it, they come out and they can really perform.
• 9:34
  And they've always, they've always had that ability.
• 9:37
  Plus you factor in the Eddie Jones coaching.
• 9:39
  I think he just might have something up his sleeve like he did for New Zealand in the 2019 World Cup.
• 9:45
  Quite admittedly though, England were playing better leading up to that versus what Australia are doing now.
• 9:50
  But I just think there might be something there.
• 9:52
  We're still a month away.
• 9:54
  And again, this is a reflection on the way the pools have panned out, right?
• 9:57
  Because australia have a fairly, like, a much easier route to get all the way to the semi finals.
• 10:03
  And by the time they're in the semi finals, then it's just two more games they've got to win, and they win the whole World Cup.
• 10:08
  Like, that's absolutely a possibility.
• 10:10
  That's actually all three of these teams are here for that reason.
• 10:14
  The way it pans out is that, like, even though they're playing warm up games right now, The pool stages because they're a little bit easier and then even the quarterfinals where everything's on the line That's even a little bit easier that might allow these teams time to gain some momentum to pull something out that we haven't seen quite Yet that they could go on and win those next two the semi final and in the final actually win the world cup Like I say, Australia always capable of winning and even their fixtures might even pan out even more because they actually have a complete week off before the quarterfinal.
• 10:46
  That could work, that could work against them.
• 10:48
  With Eddie Jones, we're never really sure.
• 10:51
  England also have like, a weird way of their fixtures.
• 10:54
  They've got Argentina first up, and then as long as they've won that, then they've got another four weeks just to prepare for the quarterfinal, which is then just to prepare for the semifinal.
• 11:04
  And so they've got like.
• 11:06
  They're not under the same amount of pressure that you know your scotlands and your even your south africans and irelands because they're in that group or up against like They, they just have an easier way of, of being able an, a more breathing room to get it together.
• 11:21
  The other teams don't, and it's not a saying that England have even near the amount of quality that the, the teams are ranked above this tier have.
• 11:30
  It's just to say that they might be able to put it together to win two games and all of a sudden, like that's all it takes to win the World Cup is to win two to upset two games.
• 11:39
  England beat in Australia isn't gonna be a huge upset England beat in Argentina isn't gonna be a huge upset.
• 11:44
  England be in Ireland and France and New Zealand or South Africa Those are going to be upsets but that can happen two weeks in a row And that's that's all they need to do to win the world cup Same goes for Wales.
• 11:57
  I can't believe I'm saying this.
• 11:59
  I thought Wales were trash after the Six Nations.
• 12:01
  I thought they'd not got it together.
• 12:02
  I thought all their old fellas are ducking out because they don't see them winning it.
• 12:06
  Or they're not keeping up.
• 12:08
  I don't know what was going on with Gatland.
• 12:10
  I didn't have much hope in Gatland after what he'd done with the Chiefs and the Lions series two years ago.
• 12:17
  But now, again, I could be completely wrong with that.
• 12:20
  And the fact that, like, they're gonna go into this and The thing that might go against them is their last game in their pool stage is Georgia So that that might go against them that might go perfectly for them because that means that going into the quarterfinals if they've already might have it all to play for might be a winner take all game against Georgia and Like they win that, they get a little bit of momentum, they win the quarterfinal, they get a bit more confidence, and then they're in the semi finals, and it's the same old story that I've just been repeating over and over and over again.
• 12:50
  You just have to win those two games and all of a sudden you've won the World Cup, so.
• 12:55
  Definitely a possibility, but it's a slim possibility for these three teams This is where i'm actually gonna get, Rude for in the comments.
• 13:04
  I'm, sorry people But this is what this is how I see it, right?
• 13:07
  This team could go in This is the the half a tier because they're they're not they're above the australia wales and england tier.
• 13:15
  They're below the top tier This team could win it, but I just don't see them as a front runner or a favorite.
• 13:21
  It's a sappers.
• 13:21
  Sorry boys Like this isn't, again, this isn't a reflection on the talent.
• 13:26
  I think if you look at the talent across South Africa, they're up there with the very best.
• 13:31
  And in fact, they're, they're so far up there that they're supplying the other nations with some of their best as well.
• 13:37
  Some of the best team players in the French squad are South African and in the Irish, they've got a couple South of Scotland, like.
• 13:45
  It's not to say that South Africa don't have the talent.
• 13:47
  If the World Cup was contested solely by how good your C teams are, like South Africa would be the favourites, but that in itself I think has come up to bite them a little bit where they just don't have the consistency and the rhythm that I think you might have to have in place to win a World Cup.
• 14:08
  They have the unfortunate reality of their fly half being injured, their staff fly half being injured, and I don't think he's gonna be fit for the World Cup.
• 14:15
  And even if he is, he's gonna be like, taped together.
• 14:18
  That's not good.
• 14:20
  They don't really have a rhythm of their, of, of a, of a start, of a solid start in 15 and maybe even 23.
• 14:26
  They've just got so much talent.
• 14:28
  They, they haven't got a solid combination settled in 2019.
• 14:32
  They did.
• 14:34
  But also, like in 2019, they weren't, they're not the favourites now, they weren't the favourites in 2019.
• 14:40
  I don't think they were the favourites in 2007 before they won it.
• 14:43
  Like, they don't have to be the favourites to go and win it.
• 14:45
  They can still absolutely, it wouldn't be an upset if South Africa went and won it to me.
• 14:49
  It's just that they're a step off of the the two, the three teams ahead of them.
• 14:55
  Like, I'd still say if South Africa were to beat Ireland, New Zealand or France.
• 15:02
  That would be an upset.
• 15:03
  That's, that's just the way it is.
• 15:05
  And I think South Africa have the talent.
• 15:09
  They could use a group stage where they get it all together, but I just don't see them having the cohesion to, to, I don't see them winning.
• 15:19
  I see them absolutely having the ability to win it, but it would surprise me much more than it would be the final three teams that are in the top tier.
• 15:27
  Goes without saying, New Zealand, Ireland, and France, like, these three teams should be disappointed if they don't win the World Cup.
• 15:35
  Like, that's, it's gonna be a failure for these, any of these three teams, so, two of these three teams have no choice but to not win the World Cup, at least, right?
• 15:46
  And actually, I think two of these three teams?
• 15:50
  No, only two of these three teams for sure will be in the semi finals.
• 15:55
  You can't, we cannot have a semi final in this World Cup that features Ireland France and the All Blacks.
• 16:01
  And that's just the way, again, it's the way the draws happen.
• 16:03
  Not so much as a reflection on the talent.
• 16:06
  But these, I can't really separate these three teams.
• 16:09
  If, if France were to beat Ireland, that's not going to be an upset.
• 16:12
  If Ireland's going to be, to beat France, not an upset.
• 16:14
  These three teams are pretty much neck and neck.
• 16:16
  With each other right at the front as favorites to win the World Cup and rightly so.
• 16:21
  New Zealand right now playing really, really well.
• 16:25
  Their pack is absolutely brutal now.
• 16:27
  They've got that, they've added that bow to their string.
• 16:30
  Is that how you say it?
• 16:31
  No, the string to their bow.
• 16:32
  I don't know, however you say that, they've added that element where they, they can now just win games in the tight with their pack, with the group playing really well, with their, the whole front row playing really well and their whole pack being really physical, they've always had the backs.
• 16:47
  They've always had the ability just to play really good rugby and win games that way.
• 16:50
  But I think they can also now win games tight.
• 16:53
  The problem is, is that they've got to win all of them.
• 16:57
  They just lose one game and that's it, they're out.
• 16:59
  And that's the reality of a World Cup.
• 17:00
  And again, not all of these, you can't have three winners of the World Cup.
• 17:04
  So I can't really choose between them.
• 17:06
  They've just got class everywhere.
• 17:07
  Now, the only concern with New Zealand is, have they peaked too early?
• 17:11
  Like, have they got, or have they timed this perfectly leading into the World Cup?
• 17:16
  I guess we'll see.
• 17:18
  My question is, like, and even that, if they've peaked, right, what is their peaking though?
• 17:23
  Like, cause are we really impressed with what we're seeing in the Rugby Championship?
• 17:27
  Cause if Australia are so far off of it, like, is them smashing Australia that, that really that great?
• 17:33
  You know, like, what, what sort of opposition are they facing?
• 17:36
  Like, they look really good, but, like, Tier 5 teams look really good when they're playing Tier 7 teams.
• 17:41
  So, is it, is it a case of them being that good?
• 17:45
  Or is it a case of the Rugby Championship not quite being at the same level as the Six Nations?
• 17:49
  I don't know about that one.
• 17:50
  We'll see, I guess.
• 17:51
  That's, that's the whole point of the World Cup.
• 17:53
  So, again, if you think I'm wrong...
• 17:56
  That's fine.
• 17:56
  Let me know in the comments.
• 17:57
  I'm not saying that it's not, I'm saying we're, we're all gonna find out and I'd like, again, I'd love to hear the discussion in the comments to see what we all think of this, To finish off with, I guess we're gonna touch on Ireland and France.
• 18:09
  These are one and two in the world, I think, or have New Zealand overtaken France?
• 18:13
  No, I think these are one and two in the world.
• 18:16
  Ireland just seem to have it all coming together.
• 18:18
  The timing is perfect for them coming into the World Cup.
• 18:22
  They look like they've got depth.
• 18:23
  They look like they're all playing to the same beat.
• 18:25
  They look like any of their second string players can come in and do the exact same job.
• 18:31
  It's just that they haven't, they are playing one of the other two teams in the quarterfinals at least.
• 18:37
  And if they get through that, then they're probably going to play one of the other two teams in the final.
• 18:41
  That, those are two really hard games to win.
• 18:44
  And, you know, they can still do it.
• 18:46
  They're still one of the favorites.
• 18:48
  Can they be ruffled?
• 18:50
  Like, you know, that's, that's another thing that we haven't seen them.
• 18:53
  And then maybe that's a question we could be asking about New Zealand.
• 18:56
  You know, they, New Zealand haven't really come up against that much adversity.
• 19:01
  Ireland, when they have come up against adversity, if you look at what's going on with Leinster, they, they lost, but then again.
• 19:10
  It was monster that ended up winning it.
• 19:11
  So like who knows, you know, it's it's just it's interesting to see and there's no way of predicting it That's why we that's why teams go and play and that's why this video is just for fun So, please don't take it too seriously with all of that being said France are still my favorites.
• 19:29
  I just think probably because of the romance of it all because of them hosting it They deserve to win the world cup They've been that tier one nation that's that's made a bunch of how many finals have they made two or three?
• 19:41
  And they still haven't won it I think finally we need a non English speaking team to, to, to go out there and to go and get it done.
• 19:49
  I think from what they've done with their domestic game, they deserve it from what they've done with like their, their under 20s are crushing it.
• 19:55
  France are going to be a dominant force and winning this home world cup just sort of puts the exclamation point or the dot on the exclamation point.
• 20:04
  But again, they could be ruffled.
• 20:06
  Unlike the other teams, I mean, this is, this is why they're ahead a little bit in my, in my book because They've got a settled squad.
• 20:14
  They've got a really deep squad.
• 20:16
  They've got so much talent but they also have a settled 15 or so that really seem together and I think we're going to see this.
• 20:24
  We haven't seen it like I know people were raving about how well New Zealand are looking heading into the World Cup but what have we seen from France from that like from that top echelon team from their top starting 15.
• 20:39
  We've only seen greatness and and yes, they lost they didn't play as they had a great first half against ireland in the only game that they've lost in my recent memory but since then Man, man, can this can this squad perform?
• 20:52
  And again, they're at home.
• 20:53
  It seems romantic They are still my favorites, but they're in the top band of of these three teams And so to, like, solidify my thinking behind these three and a half tiers of teams, any of these three teams win the World Cup, you're going to be like, yeah, kind of obvious.
• 21:11
  Like, they, that was going to happen.
• 21:13
  If South Africa win it, you're going to be like, oh, okay.
• 21:16
  They, they managed to beat these two of these teams.
• 21:19
  And you'd be surprised with that.
• 21:20
  If Australia, Wales, or England were to win it, you'd be like, wow, like, didn't see that coming.
• 21:26
  That's about it.
• 21:26
  You wouldn't be shocked beyond belief if any of the teams in that bottom tier were to win it That would be the shock.
• 21:32
  I think England Australia Wales you're like I didn't see that coming That's an upset but all I had to do was win those two games and they did it the South Africans little bit of a surprise because they just because of the two teams that they've had to be to get there and win the Thing and then these three teams the All Blacks Ireland and France Like No one like any of these three teams winning it is not an upset No one predicting it is going to say wow, like that's controversial it's kind of obvious and so I thought that's the best way to arrange it because it's a pick em once you get to these different stages So hopefully that makes sense Let me know your thoughts where have I got this completely wrong?
• 22:15
  Or or do I sound like I actually know what i'm talking about?
• 22:18
  What would you like to see from upcoming videos?
• 22:21
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• 22:32
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