Latest / THE DAILY BRIEF / Harry Enten on Tennessee special election - The quote "'A huge, huge shift to the left'"

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Harry Enten on Tennessee special election - The quote "'A huge, huge shift to the left'" · THE DAILY BRIEF

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  Speaker 1: It is election day in Tennessee tomorrow a special election
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  Speaker 1: for Tennessee's seventh congressional district. This is a heavily Republican district,
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  Speaker 1: So why a Republicans having to spend so much money there?
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  Speaker 1: Seeing in chief data analyst Harriet and is here with
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  Speaker 1: the details. When I say this is a Republican district, Terry,
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  Speaker 1: how republican?
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  Speaker 2: It is a ruby red Republican district. John Bremen, what
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  Speaker 2: are we talking about? Well, why don't we just take
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  Speaker 2: a look at the past three presidential elections in the
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  Speaker 2: great state of Tennessee, in the seventh district.
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  Speaker 3: In that great state. Look at Trump's margins.
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  Speaker 2: In twenty sixteen, he won it buy seventeen points, twenty
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  Speaker 2: twenty fifteen points, and then in twenty twenty four, Johnny
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  Speaker 2: B takes the cake. Here we get Donald Trump winning
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  Speaker 2: by twenty two points.
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  Speaker 3: That's why I.
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  Speaker 2: Say even a close GOP win tomorrow is a bad
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  Speaker 2: sign for them, because what we're dealing with is a district.
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  Speaker 3: At all three times that Donald Trump was on the
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  Speaker 3: ballance general election, he won.
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  Speaker 2: It by double diedgers, and last time he broke the
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  Speaker 2: twenty point margin barrier.
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  Speaker 1: I would say, if you had to look at the
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  Speaker 1: congressional map any district that Donald Trump won by twenty
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  Speaker 1: two points, you would say, you know, you've got like
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  Speaker 1: nearly a one hundred percent chance of winning if you're
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  Speaker 1: running for Congress there. But what are the prediction markets
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  Speaker 1: saying right now?
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  Speaker 2: You know, what are we talking about in terms of
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  Speaker 2: the prediction market? Us, Look, the Democrat has a fifteen
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  Speaker 2: percent chance of winning in that race. Okay, a fifteen
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  Speaker 2: percent chance, which ain't nothing in a district that Donald
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  Speaker 2: Trump won by twenty two points. But here I think
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  Speaker 2: is the key nugget on this side of the of
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  Speaker 2: the ledger, and that is a GOP win by under
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  Speaker 2: ten points. There's a sixty eight percent chance of that.
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  Speaker 2: So there is a more than two thirds chance that
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  Speaker 2: the Republican candidate, Yes, they win, but they win by
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  Speaker 2: a significantly lower margin than Donald Trump.
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  Speaker 3: We're talking about double digits smaller. We're talking about a huge,
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  Speaker 3: huge shift to the left.
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  Speaker 2: We're talking about when you add these two together, we're
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  Speaker 2: talking about a more than eighty percent chance that there
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  Speaker 2: is a clear double digit shift to the left, and
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  Speaker 2: a fifteen.
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  Speaker 3: Percent chance the Democrat actually wins in the district that
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  Speaker 3: Donald Trump won by twenty two points.
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  Speaker 2: That just shows you how bad the environment is for
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  Speaker 2: Republicans right now that the Democrat has any sort of
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  Speaker 2: a chance in this.
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  Speaker 1: Talk to me about what the special elections has been
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  Speaker 1: showing so far.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, Okay, see you see this and you say, okay,
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  Speaker 2: this might just be a one off in Tennessee it's
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  Speaker 2: at December special election.
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  Speaker 3: But get this twenty twenty five.
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  Speaker 2: How special elections Den's out ran Kamala Harris. We've had
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  Speaker 2: five so far Arizona seventh demout ran Kamala Harris, Florida,
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  Speaker 2: one DEM out ran Kamala Harris Florida, six demn out
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  Speaker 2: ram Kamala Harris, Texas, eighteen DEM out ran Kamala Harris.
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  Speaker 2: And in the suburbs of Washington d C. In Virginia
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  Speaker 2: eleven the denm out run Kamala Harris. On an average,
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  Speaker 2: so far, the Democrats have been outrunn Kamala Harris's margin
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  Speaker 2: by over fifteen points. So what the prediction market suggests
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  Speaker 2: what happened in Tennessee is not something that's happening in isolation.
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  Speaker 2: It is happening all over the congressionals.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, So when you see something like this, what is
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  Speaker 1: history tell us about what ultimately happens?
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  Speaker 2: Okay, see you see these, you say, special elections, what
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  Speaker 2: do they matter? We'll take a look to the mid
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  Speaker 2: two that happens down the line. You go all the
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  Speaker 2: way back since over twenty years ago. What are we
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  Speaker 2: talking about special elections in midterm results? When a party
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  Speaker 2: outperformed in special elections since two thousand and five, five
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  Speaker 2: out of five times they went on to win the
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  Speaker 2: House of Representatives in the next midterm. So what's happening?
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  Speaker 2: What's likely to happen tomorrow in Tennessee? What has happened
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  Speaker 2: across the congressional map is likely not to stay in
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  Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. It is likely to push forward and
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  Speaker 2: be very good news for Democrats come twenty twenty.
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  Speaker 1: Seve watch these margins tomorrow night. Republicans are a little
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  Speaker 1: bit jittering, Harriet, and great to see you this morning.
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  Speaker 3: Say thank you very much.
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  Speaker 4: You just heard my interview with Democrat Afton Baine, who
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  Speaker 4: was suddenly in that high stakes house race. But do
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  Speaker 4: Democrats really have a chance to flip that deep red
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  Speaker 4: Tennessee seat? And what about President Trump? Why with everything
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  Speaker 4: else going on? Has he set his sights on strong
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  Speaker 4: arming Indiana Republicans. My panel's back to answer those questions.
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  Speaker 4: So first on after Baine, I asked her about would
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  Speaker 4: you vote to keep the government open?
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  Speaker 3: She didn't exactly say. She didn't say, she.
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  Speaker 4: Said you'd take in consideration her instituents concerns. Asked if
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  Speaker 4: she thought ICE should be abolished. She's showing up with
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  Speaker 4: AOC tomorrow and at tell A rally. She wouldn't say directly,
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  Speaker 4: wouldn't say if she would vote for a Keith Jeffries
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  Speaker 4: a speaker. She's leave very hard on the issues of affordability.
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  Speaker 4: It just speaks of the fine line she has to
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  Speaker 4: walk at this critical moment.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, so she's pro affordability, that's what I take right,
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  Speaker 5: but unwilling to really express opinions on other things. And yet,
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  Speaker 5: as you say, having AOC come in to appear with her,
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  Speaker 5: if she's trying to go for turnout of Democrats, seems
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  Speaker 5: to me she needs to be a little more forthright herself.
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  Speaker 5: And if she's trying to walk a line to attract
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  Speaker 5: independent minded and maybe some Republican voters, she needs to
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  Speaker 5: speak out more. It seems to me if for her
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  Speaker 5: to win this race would be a surprise. The fact
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  Speaker 5: that we're talking about the possibility she could win this
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  Speaker 5: race is a surprise. And whatever happens on Tuesday a
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  Speaker 5: warning sign for Republicans.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, I was curious if she was going to dive
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  Speaker 4: into you know, she has a progressive pass that she
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  Speaker 4: would really dive into it, embrace and say this is
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  Speaker 4: who I am and to fight for this because you know,
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  Speaker 4: this is where the politics are, this is where she
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  Speaker 4: sees her district at this moment. Especially, this is who
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  Speaker 4: she's appearing with or she has appeared that these Democrats
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  Speaker 4: have helped her in this race so far. Al Gore,
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  Speaker 4: she mentioned coming tomorrow as part of the Teller rally,
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  Speaker 4: Primilla Giapad, who's the leader of the Congressional one of
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  Speaker 4: the leaders of PASS lead to the Congressional Progressive Congress,
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  Speaker 4: appearing with alexandrier On Coscia Court does and then Kamala
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  Speaker 4: Harris was out there recently too, and to get out
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  Speaker 4: the vote rally. These are people that not necessarily you'd
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  Speaker 4: consider moderates.
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  Speaker 6: Yeah.
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  Speaker 7: I think she's trying to do two things. On one hand,
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  Speaker 7: she is trying to give the appearance that she will
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  Speaker 7: and I mean, I think it's genuine. She wants to
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  Speaker 7: show voters, particularly in those rural areas, that she is
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  Speaker 7: prepared to be a congresswoman for all of her constituents,
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  Speaker 7: which means even if she's a progressive member of the
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  Speaker 7: state House, she wants them to believe that she will
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  Speaker 7: be open minded and listen to their concerns and be
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  Speaker 7: prepared to moderate her stances if that's what the district
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  Speaker 7: is reflecting. But on the other hand, she has that's
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  Speaker 7: the election she's trying to win on Tuesday, which is
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  Speaker 7: why she's having all these surrogates from progressive to more
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  Speaker 7: moderate establishment Democrats to help get out the vote, because
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  Speaker 7: I do think their polling must be showing them that
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  Speaker 7: it's close enough that she could actually pull this out
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  Speaker 7: if Democrats turn out.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, and that's the big thing, because Republicans both are
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  Speaker 4: spending tons of money both sides in this final stretch,
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  Speaker 4: and Democrats really hope to ride their wave of momentum
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  Speaker 4: which we've seen in special elections and this year you
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  Speaker 4: look at the twenty twenty four House margin versus this
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  Speaker 4: special election margin. If you compare apples to apples those
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  Speaker 4: same districts, how they did last cycle versus the special
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  Speaker 4: elections this cycle, Democrats are doing better and almost in
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  Speaker 4: every single race by double digits, significantly improving their performance
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  Speaker 4: from the year before.
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  Speaker 6: And I think this tells us what a God send
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  Speaker 6: this affordability question is is because this race encapsulates dilemma
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  Speaker 6: that Democrats have. They know they need the base to
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  Speaker 6: come out, as you said, in these elections, but they
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  Speaker 6: need to talk to a much wider cohort of voters. Now,
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  Speaker 6: the question this election poses is whether affordability is such
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  Speaker 6: a powerful argument that it can you know, overcome some
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  Speaker 6: of the suspicions more moderate voters have about these Democrats,
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  Speaker 6: And does it diffuse the normal magat attack lines like
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  Speaker 6: this person's you know, very left wing They were for
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  Speaker 6: defund the police, et cetera, et cetera. Is affordability such
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  Speaker 6: a powerful force that it can supersede all of this?
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  Speaker 5: You know, there's we talked about redistricting, or we're going
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  Speaker 5: to talk about redistricting. There's a little warning flag about
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  Speaker 5: redistricting here. This is a district that was created by
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  Speaker 5: Republicans in twenty twenty two to be a safe Republican district.
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  Speaker 3: Jump up.
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  Speaker 5: They chopped up Nashville into three different congressional districts in
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  Speaker 5: order to make it so. That's exactly what they're doing
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  Speaker 5: in states like Texas. And the warning sign is have
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  Speaker 5: they by deluting these Republican districts, will they really run
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  Speaker 5: a risk of losing suceeds that they thought we're safe
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  Speaker 5: republic
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  Speaker 4: It's such a good point because it's actually exactly what's
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  Speaker 4: happening in Indiana right now.