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Simulating the Rugby World Cup 10 Million Times... Who Wins? My Reaction · The Rugby Muscle Podcast

• 0:00
  Okay, how cool is this?
• 0:01
  The boffins have actually simulated the World Cup 10 million times to produce these stats and actually have more tangible and more statistically correct predictions than I could ever do.
• 0:13
  So let's run through them and see where I was wrong and where maybe I was a little bit right.
• 0:25
  What's going on everyone, it's TJ here from Rugby Muscle.
• 0:28
  Today's video isn't focused on rugby strength and conditioning, but if that's something you're interested in, of course check out the rest of the channel and hit subscribe or check out the links in the description.
• 0:38
  Below this video is going to be discussing rugby world cup We'll be doing a new video every single week on the rugby world cup.
• 0:44
  So hit subscribe if you're interested in that i've already done predictions and they were actually funny enough fairly similar to what these boffins at opta have come up with so Take a look at wrong way.
• 0:56
  Take a look at that.
• 0:56
  What happened here is the the boffins are opta.
• 0:59
  They've basically Put together a simulation of the world cup 10 million times and they've done that based on what it says here is Recent form, historical success, and fixtured difficulty are among the factors that are involved.
• 1:13
  And they've ran these simulations over and over and over again.
• 1:16
  And this is the likelihood of success for each given team.
• 1:22
  So, first and foremost, I'd like to state that this is, like, kind of a, well, duh.
• 1:27
  This is obviously what everyone's been predicting the whole time anyway.
• 1:32
  But it is interesting to see that even with those intangibles that people seem to get attached to, They are a factor right sport always does does have those intangibles.
• 1:40
  That's why we don't just play on papers why we compete and why it's so interesting to watch teams compete and like watch sport unfold because it's so So interesting, right?
• 1:49
  For example, i've been Receiving a lot of hate from South Africans who I predicted you know, were in, they weren't quite in my top tier and everyone was saying to me, you know, TJ or, or this English Oak, you so stupid because South Africa, they've won so many previous world cups, they're going to win again.
• 2:09
  And I'd be stinking well.
• 2:11
  Yeah, they have, but that's a different team, right?
• 2:14
  These are not the same teams.
• 2:16
  These are not the same players that are playing.
• 2:18
  And even if they are the same players, right?
• 2:20
  England are a perfect example.
• 2:22
  They've got a lot of guys that made it all the way to the 2019 World Cup Final, yet they're not performing, right?
• 2:28
  And this is the same players that made the World Cup Final, that had that amazing semi final win against the All Blacks, that coasted through against Australia and made it all the way to the final.
• 2:37
  And then we're...
• 2:38
  Technically upset by the box, right?
• 2:41
  It's a very similar team that they've taken to this world cup yet.
• 2:44
  They're going into this world cup an absolute Laughing stock.
• 2:48
  So I don't know maybe they like obviously the recent form and that stuff is probably going to be weighted a lot heavier I don't know how exactly how this prediction is done, but it just shows that like predicting this world cup it is actually really hard because You know, it just takes one upset.
• 3:06
  It just takes one loss for a team, you know, obviously in the knockouts, but also in the group stage to an extent, and then they go home, right?
• 3:14
  Like, that's it, and then you're done.
• 3:16
  It doesn't matter how well you've done previously, right?
• 3:18
  England in 2019 was the perfect example.
• 3:20
  They did so well to beat the All Blacks.
• 3:23
  They played a really good game.
• 3:25
  South Africa, and we'll give them credit, but they lost in the group stage to the All Blacks, like, quite handily.
• 3:32
  They went through against Japan, then they beat, they, they just got through a hard fought game, but against Wales, and then they won the World Cup, and they absolutely deserve it, but it's just one of those things that you can't predict how this, or it's.
• 3:47
  It's very independent how these World Cups play out and it's very intricate and interesting to see.
• 3:53
  And actually, that's why I like the draw the way it's been done is because, you know, you think about, like, there's going to be jeopardy on the line at every single stage, right?
• 4:02
  England aren't even sure if they're going to make it out of the group stage.
• 4:05
  South Africa and Ireland are still favourites to go through, but they've got to contend with Scotland.
• 4:10
  Anyway, let's get into this.
• 4:11
  So, let's have a look at each team.
• 4:12
  So, you've got Wales here, sat here at 0.
• 4:15
  6%.
• 4:16
  Yeah, that seems pretty fair.
• 4:18
  i'm not sure if if I mean that's yeah, they're ranked here lower they've got less chance of making the of winning the world cup than fiji Which means does that mean that they're less likely to make it out of the group stage in fiji and to be fair?
• 4:33
  That's that's not an that's not a wild statement at all.
• 4:36
  If you see how well fiji have been playing not even including that england game including the the The juror how they've been performing how they've got the structure how they were playing in the pacific nations cup And when you think that now fiji seems to have a decent pack It's not just that crazy style of play and the unpredictability.
• 4:53
  They have a good team And so they deserve to be there with that 0.
• 4:57
  9 percent, which You know, previous World Cups, they're probably not even in this factor whatsoever.
• 5:03
  Scotland feel a bit vindicated for putting them in my no chance category by this, but I've, since watching the warm ups, I've turned the corner on them, and I do, I don't know if it's just a contrarian in me, but I do feel like they're gonna get a group stage win.
• 5:17
  against either Ireland or South Africa.
• 5:19
  They just are a really good team.
• 5:21
  Or are they just that unlucky that they're with Ireland and South Africa?
• 5:24
  I'm not quite sure.
• 5:25
  But 1.
• 5:25
  2%, that seems awfully low for when you look at, when you just watch them play any given game, they play really well.
• 5:33
  And they look, they look like they are a team that are just, they're there.
• 5:37
  They're good enough to win the World Cup and it wouldn't be a huge upset as far as the player per player and the way they play goes.
• 5:45
  But, it would be an upset when you consider that they've run this simulation so many times and 1.
• 5:51
  2% is the chance that Scotland have according to this.
• 5:53
  And then you've got Australia, you know, talk about intangibles, talk about unknowns, right?
• 5:58
  This is a complete rip up of the old squad from Eddie Jones and he's got a lot of youngsters here with Australia that, I don't know how they, how they, you can even feed that into an algorithm to predict how this team is going to get on.
• 6:11
  Because, yes, you can look at the fact that they've lost.
• 6:14
  Every game leading into the world cup, but you know, whether that's eddie jones just playing to the media or whether He truly does believe that they can come out of this and have a really good chance of winning the world cup I don't know if you've seen those ads That are out there on youtube now that they've done on australia for the world cup They are quality and if he can prove dad's wrong.
• 6:35
  He's got boy.
• 6:35
  He's got three percent chance of Proving rugby dad's wrong or whatever the he said on that commercial Anyway, three percent england As an englishman myself 4.
• 6:46
  4.
• 6:47
  That doesn't look too Shabby, but then again when you take that When you think about like that's almost like a one in 20 chance You know, so you're saying there's a chance, you know, it's kind of those vibes.
• 7:01
  But again, this would be 100% down to the draw, right?
• 7:04
  England could lose to Argentina.
• 7:07
  They could then play Fiji, Australia or Wales in the quarterfinals.
• 7:12
  You'd back them to win that and then they're in a semifinal and then it just takes one upset win and then they're in a final and then it takes another upset win or potentially if they play someone else from the weaker side of the because just When you've got these top four teams that are just gonna take it out of each other just just to get to the semifinals That's where the upsets might happen.
• 7:31
  That's why I do like this draw, but five four point four percent chance of England winning it Argentina here at five point seven percent now, that's that's a little bit surprising Because obviously their only win of the Rugby Championship was was against Australia.
• 7:48
  And it was like a last minute intercept try.
• 7:50
  Oh no, it wasn't.
• 7:51
  It was a last minute intercept try that got the Australia the score.
• 7:54
  And then Argentina came back and still ended up winning it anyway.
• 7:58
  Yeah, I feel like I probably am over giving them a big oversight.
• 8:02
  And I actually should give Argentina a little bit more respect.
• 8:05
  They are definitely the strongest team.
• 8:08
  This year and potentially last year because if you consider the autumn series where they beat england They're the strongest team on that side of the pool.
• 8:16
  So if they come out freshest They definitely have a really good chance of winning this world cup.
• 8:22
  Well, they have a 5.
• 8:22
  7 chance.
• 8:23
  So they had that.
• 8:24
  I mean, clearly they're the strongest on this side of the pool according to the boffins because they're the 5.
• 8:28
  7%.
• 8:29
  And then we're looking at, what is this?
• 8:31
  If I run the math real quick, that's 85, no, 83%, 4% chance that the winner is going to be either New Zealand, South Africa, France, or Ireland.
• 8:44
  And that's, and they're all really close.
• 8:47
  Again, it's just.
• 8:48
  That, that difference between those four teams is very small.
• 8:54
  And, and I will, I will concede that since watching South Africa demolish Wales and demolish New Zealand, I do think that they do have what it takes to go and win that World Cup.
• 9:07
  I've also heard rumors that Pollard could also be making a comeback into the squad, but I've also seen a little bit better from Le Boc and I think they do have a really good chance.
• 9:17
  And obviously they're.
• 9:18
  Even with all of this being said they're still third behind iron in france I know people that comment most on my videos when I do these world cup videos are going to be sappers And they're going to say no way they're they're definitely going to win but I mean, they're neck and neck and neck with the rest of those other teams.
• 9:35
  It's just a case of, are these teams gonna, like, you know, upsets are gonna be more and more likely in this World Cup, just because all these teams are close enough.
• 9:47
  And I think outside of definitely outside of England and maybe outside of Wales Like teams have good enough defenses that they can hold teams to you know a close enough game Whereby it just takes a small difference and a really good offensive performance of, you know, a 10 minute period where a team really blitzes it on and all of a sudden they've scored three tries.
• 10:11
  All of a sudden, right, that, that, there's an upset coming from right there.
• 10:16
  And I think that that makes it such an interesting World Cup to watch.
• 10:20
  Obviously though.
• 10:22
  It's like, as you were, like you didn't need to run this simulation 10 million times to figure out that it's 80% or 82, 3% more most likely that New Zealand, South Africa, France or Ireland are going to win and that it could be any of those four teams.
• 10:41
  We're just over a week away now.
• 10:43
  We'll wait and see.
• 10:44
  What do you think about these stats?
• 10:45
  Let me know in the comments below.
• 10:47
  What do you think about my assessment or my sort of...
• 10:50
  Admitting that maybe I was a little bit wrong with my predictions.
• 10:54
  And also, what do you think about, like, the significance that these warm up games have played in the, in your view of the World Cup and in these teams preparation?
• 11:04
  Because I've been thinking about this because I've thought about England's lead into the World Cup and...
• 11:10
  A few of the other teams as well, but particularly if you're on that weaker side of the draw You've got another five weeks even after the world cup started before you really need to perform so like is Is really going at these warm up games with 100% of your might 100% of your intensity Really what you need to do particularly when you look at I mean france now missing intermac and teams getting injured like player injuries who else has gone healy has gone from ireland You're getting people that are taking knocks.
• 11:44
  Is that going to be worth it?
• 11:45
  Is that going to have a big factor on who wins the world cup?
• 11:49
  I tell you what is going to have a big factor There's going to be a red card somewhere and that is going to make a big difference.
• 11:54
  I wonder if that came into the The simulations that they ran when they did this anyway food for thought I'm, just really excited about the world cup hit subscribe if you want to see more videos previewing the world cup Let me know what you'd want to see or what you want to know from me in the comments below i'll be running a live q a tomorrow on the channel This that's going to be about strength and condition and fitness But if you have any questions for that post them in the the community tab on the channel And i'll get to those in that video.
• 12:26
  Thank you guys so much for watching.
• 12:27
  I'll see you in the next one