Latest / Industrial Advisors / Shipping, Supply Chains, and Global Risk: What Every Industrial Investor Needs to Know

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Shipping, Supply Chains, and Global Risk: What Every Industrial Investor Needs to Know · Industrial Advisors

• 0:00
  One of the things as a, as a college professor, I do, I
• 0:01
  make very complicated subjects.
• 0:03
  I don't dumb 'em down, but I make 'em so that people can understand them.
• 0:06
  And I think that's part of what I do is really make it a very
• 0:09
  complex system like supply chain, understandable to the common person.
• 0:13
  And I've been very fortunate, you know, my audience runs from the person living
• 0:16
  in the middle of Kansas, you know, who's, who's never seen a ship in their life
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  to, you know, executives in the C-suite.
• 0:36
  Welcome to our Industrial Advisors podcast.
• 0:39
  You have Bill Condon and and Matt McGregor.
• 0:41
  We have a true expert in the shipping and logistics space.
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  Uh, with us today, Sal Murano, Sal's a, a true expert in the shipping space.
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  He serves as an associate professor of history at Campbell University
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  in North Carolina, where he is based and an adjunct professor at the US
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  Merchant Marine Academy, where he teaches maritime industry policy,
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  PhD in military and naval history.
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  Tell us a little bit about your background, your expertise, so the
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  listeners can, uh, do a much deeper dive than what I just went into there, Sal.
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  Sure.
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  So, uh, I sailed.
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  I graduated from New York Maritime, sailed in the merch Marine and worked
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  in the industry for about seven years.
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  Both float as shore swallowed the anchor came ashore, decided
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  to go the history route.
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  I got myself master's in maritime history in nor archeology.
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  So did a little work, you know, in the underwater side of shipping.
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  Did, uh, PhD over in Alabama.
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  Got my military history, uh, degree there.
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  And then started teaching.
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  And one of the things that I had an opportunity to do was, uh, start teaching
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  a graduate level maritime industry policy course for the US Merchant Marine Academy.
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  So I've been doing that since 2008 and started writing about it.
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  Started, you know, commenting on policy, did some pieces in g Captain
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  and of a variety of other areas.
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  And then five years ago, this month started, uh, what's going on with shipping
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  on YouTube when the ever given went?
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  Sideways in the Suez.
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  Mm-hmm.
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  Started it just to kind of talk about the, the ship getting stuck and, and
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  it has morphed from a 137 subscribers.
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  I think I had the day I started the, the channel to just
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  over 610,000 subscribers now.
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  Yeah.
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  It's insane.
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  We saw that.
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  That's impressive.
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  Yeah.
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  It's like 500,000 views per, you know, kind of.
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  YouTube episode, which is insane.
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  I mean, for shipping, honestly.
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  I mean, I've watched a lot of 'em.
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  You're great.
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  But that's insane numbers for YouTube channel and shipping.
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  Don't ask me to explain it, Matt.
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  I have no, I have no idea.
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  I, I, I, I, I mean, I know I'm good looking.
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  I know that that's, that's, I mean, that's.
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  But I don't understand the rest of it.
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  And it's just, it, it is just, you know, one of the things I think it is, is
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  timing, number one and number two, hitting a niche that no one else is covering.
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  And I think people have an interest in this.
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  I mean, you know, the global supply chain crisis hit everybody.
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  And, and, and I think, you know, whether it was the toilet paper shortage or how
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  precarious our supply chain actually is at time that disturbed people
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  about this and, you know, making it.
• 3:02
  So that people can understand it.
• 3:04
  You know, one of the things as a, as a college professor, I do, I
• 3:06
  make very complicated subjects.
• 3:07
  I don't dumb 'em down, but I make 'em so that people can understand them.
• 3:10
  And I think that's part of what I do is really make it a very
• 3:13
  complex system like supply chain, understandable to the common person.
• 3:17
  And I've been very fortunate, you know, my audience runs from the
• 3:20
  person living in the middle of.
• 3:21
  Kansas, you know, who, who's never seen a ship in their life to, you
• 3:24
  know, executives in the C-suite.
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  So it's, it's, it's really impressive.
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  I was just literally this morning on a conversation with this, uh, congressional
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  staff, uh, about some legislation.
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  So it's, it's crazy.
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  Yeah.
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  You kind of remind me of exploding like Peter Zion did, right?
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  I mean, who was watching geopolitical stuff and then all of a sudden
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  through COVID, he just exploded.
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  Right.
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  I don't know if you follow him.
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  You probably do.
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  If I do, I would have to get myself a ponytail and be walking
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  around in the woods somewhere.
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  Exactly.
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  And doing, doing my, my, my Pure Peter, uh, thing.
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  I, I know Pete, I, I joke as Peter sometimes talks about
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  shipping, so I do these episodes called, uh, better Call Sal.
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  And a lot of times it involves Peter.
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  Uh, so it, it's fun.
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  I've done a few episodes where I kind of emulate Peter in some ways.
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  By the way, I, I really enjoy some of your references bill's too young
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  to, to, to catch some of these.
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  But your dire strait stuff.
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  One of the best concerts I ever seen was brothers and Arms.
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  When I was 14 years old that I, so I really enjoyed your commentary about that.
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  Yeah.
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  So Bill, my Don't even know who that is, bill.
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  Well, Matt, I was four when you were 14, so, uh, no, I, yeah, I don't, yeah, yeah.
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  See, yeah, some of my references will go over some people's heads, but for
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  me, you know, one of the things I always joke about is if I don't make myself
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  laugh, what's the purpose of doing this?
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  So every now and then, that's right.
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  I've come up with some very interesting, uh, titles for my videos.
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  I had one where Pleasure Boat ran into the side of the museum ship Midway
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  'cause the, the captain was drunk.
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  And I think a title of that was called Ship Faced.
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  And so, you know, you gotta have some fun with it every now and then.
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  That's great.
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  That's great.
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  Good stuff.
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  Well, let's yeah, get a little technical.
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  The first question I have for you is, obviously with
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  everything going on, uh, in Iran.
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  How is that war affecting shipping?
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  I'm imagining there's not much, uh, affecting the Venezuela situation,
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  but maybe touch on both, but specifically the conflict in Iran.
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  Yeah, so I, I mean, you've got a couple of issues that it's affecting it.
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  Number one, obviously the energy sector is a big one right now.
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  We're seeing that with 20% of global crude oil, uh, liquified natural
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  gas come outta the Persian Gulf.
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  And right now.
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  That's largely on hold because of insurance issues and needing
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  to have the insurance necessary to sail through the straits.
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  Second, we're seeing container ships.
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  I mean, we don't think about this at all, but actually there's a large container
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  sector that goes into the Persian Gulf and anytime you choke off a piece of
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  that trade, it sends back is kind of ripples through the entire supply chain.
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  Jeremy Nixon, the CEO of ONE.
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  Ocean Network Express just said over at the TPM conference, you know, this
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  is, you know, a big Black Swan event.
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  We weren't envisioning this.
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  And what we're gonna see is backlog happen in the East Asia ports
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  and that's gonna spill over to trade coming to the United States.
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  We're already seeing ships further, we were hoping to
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  see the Red Sea open back up.
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  MAs could announce that they were sending ships back through and now
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  all of a sudden they said, nope.
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  Not doing that.
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  We're gonna keep going around Africa, so that's gonna cause problems.
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  You're gonna divert more ships through the Panama Canal now, which means increased
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  traffic to go through the Panama Canal.
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  We were fortunate that the water levels are back up in the canal.
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  I mean, anytime you create a disruption, whenever I throw a map of marine
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  traffic up and I show you where all the ships are and everything, I always.
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  Called, that's the, the world's, uh, kind of circulatory system for trade.
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  Mm-hmm.
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  And, and anytime you pinch off some of the blood vessels, you
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  know, you can cause damage.
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  If it's a major blood vessel, you can kill it.
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  If it's a, a smaller one, well you're gonna hurt a limb, but
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  it's gonna hurt and now, and it's gonna cause impact throughout.
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  And that's what we're seeing right now.
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  And is that mainly affecting the East Coast?
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  I would imagine the West coast, Seattle, Tacoma, long Beach, LA
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  would be mainly coming from Asia.
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  So is that mainly affecting the Eastern seaboard?
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  So, so, you know, one of the things we saw come out, you know, this started
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  back in 2016 when we opened up that new lane of the Panama Canal is, you
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  know, back when the West coast was the dominant area, you know, LA and Long
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  Beach were sucking up 60% of trade.
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  That's not the case anymore.
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  Things go through the Panama Canal.
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  Things go around Africa now, and, and what's really interesting, one
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  of the things that the, the global supply chain crisis caused in 21
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  and 22 was a lot of brokers, a lot of shippers, really diversified
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  their ability to bring cargo in.
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  They just weren't going a hundred percent into LA and Long Beach.
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  Anymore.
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  And so you see a lot of people shifting.
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  So, you know, Savannah, Houston, New York, New Jersey, develop, I mean,
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  we see other ports, Charleston, uh, Virginia, all developing here majorly.
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  So you can't sit there and say, well, you know, this, this is in the Middle East.
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  This is not gonna affect our trade at all.
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  It does because a lot of cargo gets trans shipped, moved over.
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  Uh, you know, yes, you close off 15% of trade when you go through the Red Sea.
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  But you know, a good chunk of that was going into the big terminals
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  in Europe and being transload onto smaller ships to come across to the
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  East coast and Gulf coast of the us.
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  So yeah, this does have an impact and we're gonna see it.
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  We're gonna see the impact.
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  We're already seeing it 'cause we're seeing surcharges being leveled.
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  We're having cancellations of routes and we were already seeing that
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  because of blank sailings 'cause of over capacity in the fleet.
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  The ocean carriers, the big ones.
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  Haven't gotten rid of their ships.
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  They, they, they're holding onto them.
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  And, and that was leading to the freight rates kind of spiraling down.
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  I will expect to see freight rates going back up again
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  here, uh, because of all this.
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  And are you seeing, uh, talk to us a little bit about the shift
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  to, uh, a little bit out of China after the, you know, post
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  COVID where everybody said, Hey.
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  We're relying too much on China.
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  Certainly Trump has had that, uh, initiative.
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  But talk to us about the change.
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  Are you seeing less activity outta China into the United
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  States, or is that political talk?
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  No, no.
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  You're definitely seeing that, but I, I think we were seeing that beforehand.
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  I think what we, what happened here was a magnification of that, and you
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  gotta be careful because some of that.
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  Was being moved trans, you know, internally within Asia and to
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  come out of different countries.
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  So Vietnam, there was trade across the Chinese Vietnamese border.
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  But you are seeing it, I mean, Cambodia, Thailand, uh, Indonesia, India.
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  You're definitely seeing that.
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  The issue we saw, especially when we saw the tariffs, when you come
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  back in the tariffs, I mean, I was talking the shippers, you know, some
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  of them were looking at 145% tariffs outta China and sat there and said,
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  it's still cheaper for me to go to China to get some of these things.
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  You know?
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  Right.
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  That was the issue's like.
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  And that was my big comment during the whole tariff crisis.
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  It's like, we're not gonna see the massive drop that everybody did.
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  We did see a drop.
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  And what made that drop unique was it was outta sequence
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  from when we usually see it.
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  We saw it in May and June where it was typically, may and June are pretty
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  high months, but the first quarter was stacked, you know, and even at
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  the end, even in the fourth quarter of 2025, we were pretty stacked.
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  But yeah, we're definitely seeing that shift go on there.
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  But.
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  Nowhere near, I think the level people thought it was gonna be.
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  I still think we're pulling a a heck of a lot outta China right now.
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  For sure.
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  And if I could ask specifically, a lot of the listeners to this podcast are
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  in the Greater Pacific Northwest or invest here on industrial real estate.
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  What's your opinion on the, the port system here between
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  Tacoma, Seattle, the future of it shipping seems to be down here.
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  What's your overall opinion of our port system here?
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  Well, I think a couple of things.
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  Obviously Seattle was a big focus during the tariff issue
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  'cause Seattle was focused a lot.
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  I mean, the amount of stories I saw where Seattle's empty is
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  was, was a lot during that time.
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  But that has to do with a couple of things.
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  Number one, you shifted a lot of cargo outta Seattle down to Tacoma,
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  but the Canadian ports, I would argue, are really the competition.
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  Vancouver and print, uh, prince Rupert.
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  Are really some of the big competitors right now for Seattle Tacoma and Seattle.
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  Tacoma suffers a little bit because of the rail situation.
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  It's difficult, uh, because what you see going into, for example,
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  Vancouver, is because of the alliance system that exists on the rail
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  system between Canadian Pacific and Canadian National and Kansas City.
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  You know, if I'm gonna ship into Chicago, for example, I'm
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  probably gonna go into Vancouver.
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  'cause it's, it's, it's, the rail system is a little bit better.
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  It's flatter.
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  I don't gotta go over the Rockies.
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  It's a little bit of a better system.
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  What Seattle Tacoma tends to do is handle the population up there in the northwest.
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  And I think one of the things that really need to be done, uh, Tacoma
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  has, has, has really advanced its port.
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  I think the alliance system there is, is key.
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  I think that's helped bring back a lot of business and trade.
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  I think.
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  The other element here is the fact that LA and Long Beach don't
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  quite have their act together yet.
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  I, I mean, did they play a good game?
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  They're really big on it.
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  I mean, no one beats Gene Soroka in the port of LA to get the job.
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  The story of LA out there.
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  And I think Seattle and Tacoma have gotta get a little bit more
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  leaning into that a little bit.
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  They be, need to be a little bit more proactive.
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  They need to be talking about what Seattle Tacoma goes a huge population up
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  in the Pacific Northwest to hit mm-hmm.
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  Where LA and Long Beach make their money is two thirds of that cargo goes into the.
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  Inland empire on the rail across the United States.
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  That's where it goes.
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  And I think what Seattle Tacoma needs to do is really fixate on how good that
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  distribution system is in that area.
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  Update the ports in that, the ability to go in and out of the gates faster.
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  That's part of the automation that we see.
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  LA and, and Long Beach invested heavily in automation.
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  So you go to a port, like the Long Beach container terminal, you go to
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  the a PM terminal down in la, you know, that's what makes productivity go.
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  If you can produce a productive port.
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  That's gonna attract you a lot of business right there.
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  And I think that's one of the key things.
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  You're not gonna see the development of a port like at COOs Bay because
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  there's not the population there.
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  There's not the road or rail system there, but Seattle Tacoma has that,
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  and I think that's the element that needs to be kinda leaned into more.
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  That's a really good point, Sal.
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  We deal with a lot of.
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  Three PL companies, right, that, that have locations across the US and I
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  imagine that, that they value your expertise in the shipping space.
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  I guess my que my question to you would be, what advice do you have
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  for those companies when they're looking at planning facilities
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  across the US and and downsizing in some areas and growing in others?
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  What are you telling them in today's environment?
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  I think a couple of things.
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  I think if you are a hundred percent in on one route, one
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  system, you're going to get hit.
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  I mean, it's only a matter of time.
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  I, I, that's what we saw happen.
• 13:09
  I mean, the reason LA Long Beach had 109 ships off them was not
• 13:13
  because we had a shipping shortage.
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  We had plenty of ships.
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  We had 109 ships.
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  There was no shortage of ships.
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  What we had was the system got overloaded and we came in, you know,
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  basically we took an eight lane highway into a. Four lane highway.
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  And, and, and what you did is you c clogged that system up and the problem you
• 13:27
  had is, listen, if you had versatility, if I had a ship that was going into
• 13:31
  Tacoma and LA that worked great.
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  'cause I can get my cargo off in Tacoma and I can sit there and wait to get
• 13:37
  into LA and, and, and, and deal with it.
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  But what you had.
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  Was a lot of problems like, okay, I need to get in LA and do I
• 13:44
  wanna spend the time in Tacoma?
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  So I'm just gonna jump, I'm gonna dump Tacoma and I'm just gonna go into la.
• 13:49
  I think what we need to do is really demonstrate, listen,
• 13:51
  Tacoma provides you this.
• 13:52
  You know, you can get into the system, you can get ahead of when
• 13:55
  the system crashes or clogs up.
• 13:57
  I can get you again.
• 13:59
  I think what we saw happen is like, listen, are you willing to pay a
• 14:02
  little bit more for better results?
• 14:04
  Because if you look at that classic graph of reliability, in other words, I
• 14:08
  ship a container, what's the chance of it arriving on time during periods of
• 14:11
  low cost to go across on ocean shipping, the reliability is through the roof.
• 14:16
  When the cost is high, reliability drops like to 20, 30%.
• 14:20
  And what I saw and what I tell people all the time is, listen, if you're
• 14:23
  willing to pay a little bit extra, you can guarantee that you shift.
• 14:26
  By coming into different ports.
• 14:27
  Mm-hmm.
• 14:28
  And that's where a port like Seattle, Tacoma, and the Northwest comes in very
• 14:32
  importantly, because you know, if we play the four corner strategy, if we
• 14:36
  play la Long Beach, Savannah Houston, New York, New Jersey, well that.
• 14:41
  What we saw from Dolly in Baltimore is you can shut a US port down.
• 14:44
  I mean, you can close it.
• 14:45
  I mean, you can shut it down for months.
• 14:46
  Mm-hmm.
• 14:47
  Sure.
• 14:47
  And for, and the vulnerability is there.
• 14:49
  And listen, LA and Long Beach, they can add more terminals,
• 14:52
  they can increase their rate.
• 14:54
  You're still in downtown LA and Long Beach to get out of.
• 14:57
  That's, you still got that issue about getting out.
• 14:59
  So what I would tell people is, listen, look at that.
• 15:01
  I mean, one of the most interesting discussions I saw were, you know,
• 15:04
  basically data companies that were basically data warehouses along routes
• 15:10
  to determine where I can store goods, I can bring 'em into Seattle, Tacoma,
• 15:14
  maybe warehouse 'em in, in Butte, Montana, off a railhead somewhere,
• 15:18
  and then I could pull it when I need.
• 15:20
  To get to me in Indianapolis.
• 15:22
  You know, I don't have to go into just Ontario, California anymore.
• 15:26
  There are options out there for me, and that's what I would do.
• 15:28
  I mean, that, that's what I tell them all the time.
• 15:30
  Now that takes time.
• 15:31
  It takes money and it takes some resources, but it pays off at the
• 15:36
  point when there are disruptions, and I think the one thing we can say is
• 15:39
  there's going to be disruptions there.
• 15:40
  The, the period of things flowing perfectly anymore are not there.
• 15:45
  And if you are involving with anything that touches the ocean.
• 15:48
  Get ready for a disruption, whether it's a natural disruption
• 15:50
  or it's a geopolitical one.
• 15:52
  Speaking of disruption, and the last question we have for you is.
• 15:57
  Tell us about the biggest risk to the US supply chain over the next year
• 16:00
  and kind of what your prediction is.
• 16:02
  I think it has to be just literally the uncertainty.
• 16:05
  I mean, again, you know, on the Bingo card for 2026, you know, did, did was
• 16:10
  straight of horror moves on there.
• 16:11
  Yeah, it was on there.
• 16:12
  I don't think anybody quite had the level of disruption.
• 16:16
  That we're seeing right now, and I don't think everyone
• 16:18
  appreciates what this, this happens.
• 16:21
  I, I'll give you the perfect example is, is you reopen the Red Sea tomorrow.
• 16:24
  Tomorrow the Houthis, you know, everything's done.
• 16:26
  And we're gonna reopen the Red Sea.
• 16:28
  That's gonna cause three months of disruption.
• 16:29
  Everyone, no one understands how much that's going to clog ports
• 16:33
  all of a sudden and cause it.
• 16:34
  So even positive things can cause this issue.
• 16:37
  And I, I think.
• 16:38
  The big prediction I would say is really being, you know,
• 16:41
  quick and nimble on your feet.
• 16:43
  Being able to do it, it's very difficult.
• 16:44
  I mean, we, we get so focused on the immediate shipment, you know, Hey, I
• 16:48
  gotta get this load from here to here.
• 16:49
  I gotta provide this.
• 16:50
  I'm not looking at big picture, I gotta look at small term.
• 16:53
  But if you've got your head in, in, in kind of the hood there,
• 16:55
  and you're not looking up around.
• 16:57
  You're gonna get hit, you are gonna get hit hard because what you need to be able
• 17:00
  to do is very quickly adapt to a system.
• 17:03
  You know, I, I ran around last year with an app on my phone that gave me the, the,
• 17:07
  the water levels in the Panama Canal.
• 17:09
  I, I, I'm, I'm such a loser.
• 17:10
  I, I really am.
• 17:11
  You know, I, I, I, I should have, I should be looking at ESPN results instead.
• 17:15
  I'm like, oh, look at the Katoon Lake, because that's, that was
• 17:18
  driving shipping, uh, to such a level.
• 17:20
  And, and not everyone does that.
• 17:22
  And I think.
• 17:23
  One of the things I think a alliances and groups do all the time and and
• 17:27
  podcasts, like what you guys do is very important for regionally to
• 17:30
  give people the idea of, Hey, listen, this is what's on the horizon.
• 17:33
  This is what we're seeing and here, and more importantly, this is what we learn
• 17:36
  from this event, what you need to be thinking about for the next time around.
• 17:40
  I would argue that one of the things that I think the tariffs weren't as bad.
• 17:46
  Impact on everyone.
• 17:47
  I'm not talking economically, but I mean in disruption, because we'd learned that
• 17:50
  in 20 21, 20 22, a lot of people were.
• 17:53
  Okay, I'm gonna get a disruption.
• 17:54
  Now.
• 17:55
  How am I prepared for this?
• 17:56
  I'm gonna front load, I'm gonna, you know, if I got the ability, I'm gonna
• 17:59
  get some cargo in here real fast.
• 18:00
  I'm gonna build up my supplies.
• 18:02
  I'm gonna build an alternative route system.
• 18:04
  I'm gonna look at different suppliers overseas.
• 18:07
  Maybe I don't wanna be just in China.
• 18:08
  Maybe I wanna be in a few places.
• 18:10
  To me, that's it.
• 18:11
  But again, it takes a lot to be able to do that and, and my focus
• 18:14
  is, like I said, watching the water because guaranteed ship's gonna happen
• 18:18
  somewhere, and it happens quite a lot.
• 18:20
  That's right.
• 18:20
  Well, we're gonna put all your, uh, information so you
• 18:23
  get some, uh, more followers.
• 18:25
  Uh, we're gonna put that in the, in the footnotes so
• 18:27
  everybody knows where you're at.
• 18:28
  We greatly appreciate this.
• 18:30
  This has been fascinating and congratulations on all your success.
• 18:33
  I mean, like I said at the beginning, it's insane how many people
• 18:37
  watch, watch you, but you truly are the world expert in shipping.
• 18:40
  We greatly appreciate you being on the show.
• 18:43
  Well, I appreciate it.
• 18:44
  What gets me out there is guys like you promoting me, so I appreciate that a lot.
• 18:47
  Excellent.
• 18:47
  Yeah, I appreciate it and not ever knew shipping could be so interesting.
• 18:50
  So you did an excellent job.
• 18:51
  Thanks for joining us.
• 18:55
  Thanks a lot.
• 18:55
  Appreciate it.
• 18:56
  You did great.
• 18:57
  Thank you.
• 18:57
  Thanks guys.