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Cameron Bagrie: Independent Economist on the economic forecasts around GDP and economic growth · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: AP's latest update, inflation peaks at four percent mid year
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: growth down one point six points from two point nine
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: to one point three. So basically we go for the
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: year and growth from nearly three to a little over one.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Cameron Bagri independent economists with us, is that a conservative
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: number from numbers from ASP or about where you would
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: think it should be at.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: It's probably around your central scenario at the moment. But look,
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: there's a lot of variance around that central scenario. If
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: anybody can give me a sort of firm idea or
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: any economists in regard to how long moves is going
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: to be closed or how on this event is going
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: to last for all, we'll start to put some firm
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: numbers at the moment. But in all, honestly, at the
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: moment we're whistling, Dixie, how long this thing is going
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  Speaker 2: to take place?
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: It called me battle hardened. But at least we're not
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: talking about recession.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: Oh I guess yeah, hens a your definition of recession.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: So if you have a look at what's called GDP capita, Ryan,
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: it's still down three point four percent speak around three
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: years ago. So in the terms of level of GDP,
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: we're still climbing out an economic hole, and obviously the
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: ASP's forecast, which I agree with, time is going to
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: move backwards in the gym quarter. Now that my technically
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: not technically buying the a recession, because for to get
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: a recession you need to go back of the two
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: quarters in a row. But you've got the level of
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  Speaker 2: GDP still three point four percent down from your feek.
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: It's still going to feel like it's pretty tough out there.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Break crude price futures before I came on this morning
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: about one hundred and twelve bucks in barrel. If we
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: get a headline that says boots on the ground, what
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: happens to that price.
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: I saw a headline over the over the weekend, which
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: is one of the reasons we're seeing all the prices
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: move back up, is that your ground evasion, you've got
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: to build up the troops in the Middle East. And
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: the commentary around that was that if you're going into
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: a ground invasion, while you're talking months, you're not talking
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: weeks in regard to the how long this thing's going
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: to last. So yeah, let's go on in regards the
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  Speaker 2: markets are thinking, if you look at the forward price
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: for crude oil, you know the forward price is still
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: what's called down and sloping I e. And six months,
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: we're expecting lower oil prices as opposed to higher all prices.
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  Speaker 2: But yeah, it's anybody's guest now in regard to what's
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: going on. You love the Whoshi's down and Yemen and
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: there opening up. What looks like it could be a
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: seeking potential. You choke points so that the world's on edge.
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: You know, I'm fiersty. I'm a little bit surprised well markets,
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: particular equities have taken this.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they've been pretty resilient. Would you be rationing already?
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: I'd be at level two.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Cameron Begory. Appreciate your time this morning. Cameron Begory, Independent Economists.
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: For more from early edition with Ryan Bridge.
• 2:42
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• 2:46
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