Cameron Bagrie: Independent Economist on the economic forecasts around GDP and economic growth

Early Edition with Ryan Bridge · Mar 30, 2026 · 2m · transcript

Banks' forecasts of an economic contraction in the second quarter are probably right, independent economist Cameron Bagrie says.

ASB’s revised outlook shows the bank expects annual GDP growth of 1.3% this year, down from its previous forecast of 2.9%, thanks to higher fuel prices hitting consumer spending.

It expects the economy to contract by 0.3% in the second quarter and expand by 0.3% in the third, with New Zealand’s economic recovery now “unlikely” before 2027.

Bagrie told Ryan Bridge those forecasts were a “central scenario” but there was a lot of variance, as nobody had a firm idea of…