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The Data Behind Miami's Boom: An Interview with Ana Bozovic · Between Two Chairs - Demystifying Commercial Real Estate

0:00
Welcome to Between Two Chairs, Demystifying Commercial
0:04
Real Estate, the podcast that brings you the
0:06
latest insights and trends on the South Florida
0:09
commercial real estate market with your hosts,
0:12
Fernando Arencivia Jr. and Jennifer Wolman. In
0:16
each episode, we dive into the world of commercial
0:18
real estate and break down complex concepts to
0:21
make them accessible for everyone. Whether you're
0:24
a real estate professional, a curious investor,
0:28
or just interested in the South Florida market
0:30
in general, Between Two Chairs is the podcast
0:32
for you. So pull up a chair and join us. Welcome,
0:48
everybody, to another episode of Between Two
0:50
Chairs. My name is Fernando Encivia, Jr., and
0:53
with me is a very patriotic. Jennifer woman.
0:56
You got the background for it. I do. I do. So,
1:00
Jennifer, we have what we always look forward
1:03
to our very special interview shows. And so would
1:07
you do the honors of introducing our very special
1:09
guest? Of course, I'm super excited today because
1:12
if you are anything like Fernando and I and love
1:15
data, South Florida real estate. or jujitsu,
1:20
then this episode is definitely for you. Our
1:23
guest today is Anna Bozovic, and she is the founder
1:27
of Analytics Miami and MiamiDealSheet .com, and
1:31
the co -founder of Anna Alex Advisory. She is
1:34
a new development expert and an all -around bad...
1:38
Can I say badass? Yeah, badass. Who does deep
1:41
dives to correlate data to the real estate market
1:47
in South Florida. She has been quoted and featured
1:50
in just about every... publication I know of
1:53
New York Times, Miami Herald, Bloomberg, Fox
1:56
News, South Florida Business Journal, and probably
2:01
any other outlet that discusses South Florida
2:04
real estate. So thank you very, very much for
2:07
joining us today, Anna. Well, thank you so much
2:10
for having me. It's always a pleasure. I always
2:11
love seeing you both. We've known each other
2:13
for a long time. Likewise. So we're going to
2:16
do a deep dive into your companies and your views
2:20
on South Florida real estate and how you tie
2:24
data together. But before we get started, I'd
2:27
like to know a little bit about Anna, where you're
2:29
from, where you grew up, what your background
2:33
was like, what you were like as a kid, et cetera.
2:35
So I was born in Belgrade. It was Yugoslavia
2:38
when I was born. I'm dating myself. The country
2:40
I was born in no longer exists. But the city
2:42
is still there. Belgrade is now in the country
2:44
of Serbia. So that's where I was born. And my
2:47
parents moved with me to New York City when I
2:49
was three years old. So I grew up in New York
2:51
City. People asked me, why did you move to New
2:53
York? I said, well, I was part of the luggage.
2:54
I was three. Good decision in retrospect, but
3:00
not mine. So anyway, I arrived in New York City
3:03
when I was three. I stayed in New York City until
3:06
I was 27. I went to Columbia University, so I
3:08
stayed there for college. And I really love New
3:10
York. This is one of those things I always comment
3:13
on when I talk about how disappointed I am with
3:15
the trajectory of the city. I love New York City.
3:18
And for most of my young life, I thought I would
3:20
live in New York City forever. I thought it was
3:21
the best place in the world. And so that's where
3:24
I grew up. And I studied. theoretical math and
3:27
physics at school like weird stuff like space
3:30
-time physics modern geometry things dorky things
3:32
like this and I was always an athlete so sports
3:36
was always my salvation in in many ways my first
3:39
serious sport when I was younger was fencing
3:41
so I used to train the New York fencers club
3:43
which at the time was the Upper West Side like
3:45
I was there all day like I and I would just lock
3:46
up the gym and go home I wasn't home very much
3:48
school was very easy for me and I didn't like
3:50
it and so I did very little in school. I got
3:54
into college despite myself. I'm completely serious.
3:56
I was just very good at math and good at taking
4:00
tests and those things, but I really, I disliked
4:03
school greatly. I stayed in New York City, went
4:05
to Columbia because I liked New York City and
4:06
I wanted to stay with my coach. And it was just
4:08
like, I just liked it there. And so that was
4:10
kind of that path. And then I've been in Miami
4:13
now for like 13, 14 years. And I was in Switzerland
4:19
for a few years, mostly between here and New
4:21
York. And then I got here, it was a bit of an
4:24
experiment, and I started Analytics Miami about
4:27
more than, I didn't put it on LinkedIn right
4:29
away, LinkedIn's right about at 10 years, but
4:31
it was like 11, 12 years ago when I first formed
4:33
the LLC. And at the time I got a real estate
4:36
license, I wasn't quite sure why. I was kind
4:38
of cleansing the palate and branching onto new
4:40
things. And as I was learning more about Miami
4:42
and deciding to stay here, I was immediately.
4:45
sort of captivated by how new I felt the city
4:47
was. This is before COVID supercharged it. And
4:49
I remember just just meeting people. It was like,
4:51
it was nothing planned. And I got a real estate
4:53
license. And I had a friend slash mentor at the
4:55
time who suggested that I publish this data that
4:58
I would put it up for myself. I couldn't find
5:00
good data for the residential market. So I started
5:01
doing it myself. And I said, no, this is simple
5:03
data. It's not interesting. And he said, no,
5:06
it is very interesting. Publish it. And so I
5:08
was like, all right. At the time, I was running
5:10
track. I was a sprinter. As much as I do jiu
5:12
-jitsu, I was at the South Beach track. I ran
5:14
the track almost every day. And I ran the 400
5:16
meters. I actually came in second in the country
5:18
at the 400 meters, the US Masters Track Nationals,
5:20
one of those years. And my training partners
5:23
had all run much longer than me. And the 400
5:25
is an awful race. There's all these sprints.
5:27
And I was like, talk, talk, talk. And they'd
5:28
be like, Ana, shut up and just run. And so we
5:30
needed to name the LLC, and I'm off to the track
5:32
one day, and he's like, analytics. What's up?
5:34
And so it was born. That's awesome. You people
5:37
say the best nicknames are those that others
5:39
give you. Yeah, that's true. So true. You kind
5:44
of, so first of all, why did you pick Miami when
5:47
you were in Switzerland or did you pick Miami
5:49
when you were in New York or did you just? No,
5:52
it was a post -New York thing. It was, honestly,
5:56
there was not a great reason. Okay, so I love
5:59
this. I love you kind of fell into real estate.
6:01
You kind of felt, you know, you just kind of
6:03
follow the flow. So you started analytics in
6:07
Miami. What what setbacks did you run into or
6:12
what? you know, what insights did you gain starting
6:17
analytics at that time? You said there wasn't
6:19
great data. Yeah, so I mean, I started putting
6:22
it together for myself because the way my brain
6:24
works, if I'm going to be speaking about something
6:26
or advising people or whatever, I need to understand
6:28
what I'm talking about. And I couldn't get enough
6:31
information that would enable me to see the market,
6:33
as I put it. I couldn't see it. It was just all
6:35
weird data points. The median price of a house
6:37
is this or what is that? It doesn't tell me directionality.
6:40
It doesn't tell me anything that in my mind is
6:42
useful. I don't see interplays between supply
6:45
and demand and segments, any of it. And so I
6:47
was like, I need to see the market. And so I
6:49
started putting it together myself. Did you feel
6:51
that there was an over -reliance on lagging indicators
6:53
when people would speak about the market? I mean,
6:56
to be very honest, I think it's more than that.
6:59
I was shocked by how much people didn't know
7:01
anything and were making things up, to be very
7:03
honest. That took me a few years to realize because
7:06
before real estate, I was never in real estate
7:08
any capacity before this. And then I was always
7:11
involved with things where people were very technical.
7:15
And there was a safe assumption that if somebody
7:17
was older than me by a lot, had been doing it
7:20
for decades, that they knew what they were talking
7:21
about. And I found that in South Florida real
7:23
estate, that was absolutely not the case. And
7:25
the extent to which that was the case was shocking
7:28
to me. I couldn't believe it. I'd never counted
7:30
anything like it. People were just flat out making
7:32
things up just to levels that staggering. They
7:35
would take data points out of thin air. that
7:37
maybe were not a lie, but misused them. It was
7:40
all just opportunistic, nothing. It was shocking.
7:45
I'm still shocked by it, to tell you the truth.
7:47
I find over it mostly. But that was really the
7:50
most appalling thing to me, was the extent to
7:51
which the information was fabricated, misused,
7:54
and that there was no desire to understand the
7:56
market. People were just superficially using
7:57
information for a short -term gain. So one of
8:00
the things that I love about how you use data
8:02
and kind of to touch on the lagging indicator
8:05
information, a lot of real estate data is backwards
8:08
data, right? It's what was sold, what was pended
8:12
back then. But I love how you really do a deep
8:17
dive and you really analyze trend data. And then
8:22
you tie that to the real estate. So tell me a
8:24
little bit about that, how your brain works around
8:27
that, because we love connecting those dots.
8:29
So that's actually the main thing that I think
8:31
about. Thanks for bringing that up. That's the
8:33
most valuable thing, because if you're talking
8:34
about a market and you want to make decisions,
8:37
you have to have some ideas as to which direction
8:38
it's moving in, what's going to happen. And this
8:41
is why, again, a data point by itself is a snapshot
8:45
in time. It doesn't tell you directionality.
8:47
Anybody can tell you the median price is such
8:49
and such as this. OK, is that good or bad? Which
8:51
way is it going? What does this tell me? Nothing,
8:53
actually. So the way that my brain works is I
8:56
always try to find patterns in the data, outlier
8:58
boundary conditions that are indicative of something
9:00
changing, something new in the market, and also
9:02
seeing the interplay between supply and demand
9:06
in ways that is segment relevant. And then you
9:09
see which forces are together pushing and creating
9:11
the reality that you see around us. So you can
9:12
see that looking at various parts of data just
9:16
in our market. But then you step further back.
9:19
And you say, OK, you have to recognize that our
9:21
market doesn't live in a vacuum. Nothing is the
9:23
way that it is for no reason. It's not like,
9:25
OK, it's not doing that for no reason. Like,
9:27
for example, the first half of this year, something
9:28
I'm calling the echo exodus is going on. There's
9:30
been a surge to all -time highs in transactional
9:32
volume across luxury segments in South Florida.
9:35
OK, that's great. We see it in our data. The
9:37
baseline question, though, is why? Why is this
9:39
happening? And this is where it gets interesting.
9:41
This is where one has to connect macro forces.
9:46
to the reality that we're seeing around us, because
9:48
the reality we're seeing here exists because
9:50
of macro forces that are driving wealth and entrepreneurship
9:53
to us, you know, in our case, but those forces
9:55
are always there. And if you can recognize them,
9:58
then you get a baseline understanding of what
10:00
you're seeing around you. And then you have confidence
10:02
in extrapolating out the data. So, for example,
10:05
in the immediate aftermath post -COVID, I had
10:06
a press that was at least other fault. Most people
10:09
are resistant to change. That's a fundamental
10:11
human concept. And they kept asking me, oh, it's
10:14
just, you know, it's going to go back. It's going
10:15
to go back. it's just the way that it you know
10:17
just a flash pan type thing and I said no I completely
10:20
disagree and I had no reservations in saying
10:22
that because I was to my satisfaction able to
10:25
identify the prime of the main forces that were
10:28
driving this wealth and talent to sell Florida
10:30
and once I identified them I can't unsee them
10:32
and I don't see them reversing and I had no hesitation
10:35
in saying it's just going to continue to grow.
10:37
And I feel like that's when a lot of these your
10:40
ability to connect that the interplay between
10:44
a static data point and macro trends that you
10:48
were seeing is why all of a sudden well I can't
10:51
say all of a sudden because you've been guest
10:55
featured in all sorts of publications, but at
10:57
least in my opinion, it totally bloomed. Like
11:00
I was seeing you everywhere and I love the fact
11:02
that you, first of all, you speak unashamedly
11:06
about everything that you know because I think
11:09
you do do such a great job doing the deep dive
11:12
and really knowing where your data's coming from
11:14
and why. But I also like the fact that you think
11:18
way, and I don't even like the saying outside
11:22
the box, but the fact that you grab these external
11:26
factors from other places. So tell us a little
11:30
bit about how you do that. Are you just combing
11:33
through news articles? Is it conversations you're
11:36
having? Give us a little bit about how Anna's
11:40
analytic brain works in gathering that info.
11:43
Great question. So I approach it kind of by default
11:46
like I'm writing a proof, if that makes sense.
11:49
When you study higher level, any type of math
11:52
or physics, there's no numbers involved, you're
11:53
writing proof. So a proof is a logical exercise
11:55
and you're creating order out of n -dimensional
11:58
chaos to some level in a thesis driven way. And
12:01
that's actually the approach. So I'm always reading
12:05
things, so it's hard to say where. So I don't
12:08
read things though, like I don't have most people,
12:10
I don't know what most people do, but I believe
12:13
almost nothing of what I read at face value,
12:15
if that makes any sense. This is a cross -spectrum.
12:18
Again, I'm an independent. It's not like I have
12:22
an identity adherence towards any of the outlets.
12:27
I'm very good at just taking things for what
12:30
I see as raw data signals. And then I do incorporate
12:32
that with a lot of raw data, but I'm constantly
12:34
consuming information, but in a way that's very
12:36
removed from the headline messaging. Because
12:38
I almost, well, one of my almost default beliefs
12:41
is whatever the headline is, that actually is,
12:43
it's just, it's a machine. It's just an attention
12:46
grabbing machine and it's often wrong. and it's
12:48
just designed to sell whatever the hell they're
12:50
selling. So I don't consume media as a product.
12:53
I'm very good at filtering out and just taking
12:55
information out of lots of things. And so I just
12:58
constantly do that. It's hard to explain. And
13:01
then I combine that with raw data dumps. So there's
13:03
a lot of raw data. So when it comes to getting
13:05
more specific to the market, then there is just
13:07
raw data that I chart based upon various segments.
13:09
But the more macro stuff is just a constant ongoing
13:11
process of extracting signals from. all sorts
13:15
of inputs. I love that and the fact that you...
13:19
Don't take what you read at face value. I love
13:21
because I remember and I'm sure you remember
13:23
when the study was done. I want to say it was
13:26
before COVID. It might have been right before
13:28
COVID. A study was done by a really well -known
13:30
university and it said, oh, you know, there's
13:34
climate flight from Miami Beach to I think it
13:39
was Brownsville or Little Haiti or Little River,
13:41
you know, somewhere on the mainland of Florida,
13:45
of the Miami area. And everybody who was in real
13:48
estate was like, that doesn't have to do with
13:50
climate change. That has to do with the fact
13:52
that at that time, I think a price per square
13:54
foot was $1 ,200 a square foot on Miami Beach
13:57
versus something like $100 or $150 a square foot
14:02
in one of those areas. So I love that you don't.
14:06
Exactly. Well, there was a UBS bubble report
14:08
two years ago. which was so comical because they
14:10
had this huge PDF where they used Miami as the
14:13
headline for the clickbait, Miami biggest bubble
14:15
in the world. And their entire PDF in no place
14:17
mentions the usage of debt or the opposite. And
14:22
they don't even define how they defined a bubble.
14:25
They sort of went over two of their five indices
14:27
that they used. And in both of those indices
14:29
that were in the report, Miami ranked amongst
14:31
the best, one or two for the cohort. It was so
14:33
bizarre. And the Miami page, they had a page
14:36
for Miami, page 11 of that report. And the paragraph
14:38
there at the end, it said that, you know, despite
14:42
the fast appreciation of whatever, whatever,
14:44
we still don't see a correction in the future.
14:45
And I'm like, what? But your headline was the
14:47
opposite. And the headline gets copied broken
14:50
telephone style by all the press all around the
14:52
world. And no one takes that paragraph. And it's
14:54
like, OK, I see this happening with something
14:56
that I happen to know I'm knowledgeable about.
14:59
This happens with everything. I just happened
15:01
to catch that one because I know the topic, but
15:03
it happens with everything. No, and I like that
15:05
one of the things that you mentioned earlier
15:07
about, you know, people are resistant to change.
15:10
It's a universal thing with humanity. There's
15:12
also that sense that when you have a bias, you're
15:15
grasping for headlines or information that are
15:18
going to confirm your bias. And you never really
15:20
get to look at the information from a very clear
15:24
perspective to see where is the information leading
15:26
and how is it educating you or informing you
15:29
to make better better financial investment decisions
15:32
or decisions about where you're going to live
15:34
etc etc and so I feel that a lot of your presentations
15:38
are about Encouraging people to resist that in
15:42
themselves to resist that. Hey, I have a bias.
15:45
So I'm looking at everything through that prism.
15:48
You have to actually resist it. It takes effort.
15:52
You have to go through that because otherwise
15:54
you're going to default to your baseline. A hundred
15:57
percent. Yes. That's a great point. And that's
15:59
also how do you train your mind to process what
16:01
you see around you? How do you react or not react?
16:03
How do you how do you process things in such
16:05
a way that they're part of your path forward?
16:06
That actually should be the default. Everything
16:08
and non reactivities. a real skill. Otherwise,
16:11
what are you doing? You're reacting to headlines
16:13
to things all around you that are causing you
16:14
to panic or think things they're not, things,
16:17
thoughts, people, habits, whatever, they're part
16:19
of your path forward, or they're taking you back.
16:21
And the more binary you get on this approach,
16:23
the better and the less energy and time and life
16:27
you waste thinking about things in a way that's
16:29
not. beneficial to you. Well and I'm going to
16:32
show my age here but you know I think the way
16:35
that we consume news nowadays it is in the headlines
16:39
because if you look if you look at your email
16:42
scroll no matter what news you know I'll let
16:44
you subscribe to and I have like all of them
16:47
all you get are the headlines and then I can
16:49
decide based on that headline if I'm going to
16:52
click it or not. But in the back of my brain,
16:55
I'm probably storing that. If I don't click on
16:58
the bigger article to do the deeper dive into
17:01
what that means, I'm probably just remembering
17:04
that headline, right? And to your point, the
17:07
headline often is misleading. It's the clickbait
17:10
kind of headline or the if it bleeds, it leads
17:14
kind of theory when the real story is buried
17:18
deeper. So how do you... Given that that's how
17:22
we tend to consume information, how do you get
17:26
your data out in such a way that that headline
17:31
is the most memorable or the most accurate for
17:35
the data that you're putting together? Oh, good
17:37
question. So I do, okay, so I distribute things.
17:41
I put out quarterly reports that I have a newsletter
17:43
and then my reports get picked up by... the press
17:46
quite a bit. Oh, I updated my site a few weeks
17:48
ago, I realized I hadn't really done a major
17:50
update for 10 years. And I'm not a major update.
17:54
I did for the whole thing. I never added up downloads
17:56
since 2020. My reports have been downloaded 300
17:59
,000 times. Oh, wow. Wow. Congrats. That's amazing.
18:03
I didn't realize. I never added them up individually.
18:06
And I was like, Oh, wait a second. This looks
18:08
like a lot. I was like, wow, because each one
18:10
is like 15 to 25 ,000. And I was like, wow, it's
18:12
300 ,000 times. So I distribute things through
18:16
newsletters. And then there are a lot of journalists
18:17
who read my newsletters and who reach out. And
18:19
I'll have Zooms with them talk about information.
18:21
I really don't actually think about the headline
18:23
very much, almost at all. When I release a report,
18:27
I'll say, hey, new report. And then I have a
18:30
series of bullets, top 10 things, top 10 insights
18:34
that I feel the data is showing. And that's kind
18:36
of how I present it. I don't think about the
18:38
headline. So let me ask you, Ana, when you're
18:41
advising a client and they're looking at a specific
18:43
parcel, how do you connect them from the macro
18:47
to the micro? And how do you help them then inform
18:51
those micro decisions? Yeah, no, great question.
18:56
So while people want to know if something is
18:57
a good investment or not and that regardless
19:00
of what their acquisition strategy is for a particular
19:03
in a moment in time. They want to feel good about
19:05
what they're buying moving forward for whatever
19:06
their time frame is. And so it all ties back
19:10
to that. And then also people, if they see you
19:11
as a trusted expert, they tend to believe you.
19:13
It's a different conversation than someone just
19:14
trying to pitch them or saying, hey, listen to
19:16
me, because XYZ, usually they reach out to me
19:19
because they've seen me in something or they've
19:20
read something. And so it changes the tone of
19:23
the, I imagine it changes the tone. I'm not trying
19:26
to convince them that I'm the expert. They kind
19:28
of talk to me because they think that I am. becomes
19:32
like a leading with trust conversation. Let me
19:36
ask you a question just because I know you again
19:39
there I say you have a beautiful mind and so
19:42
what do you think most people are missing in
19:44
the argument on AI? It's become from what I hear
19:49
from people, so much cliché about the use of
19:52
AI. You know, a realtor that doesn't use AI is
19:55
going to be replaced by a realtor that uses AI.
19:57
You know, we tend to narrow these complex things
20:00
into very bite -sized pieces. But I'm really
20:05
curious about how are you viewing AI as a factor
20:09
in our society moving forward, if we were to
20:12
be a little more, you know, a wider lens? I think
20:16
that for the next... manageable timeframe ahead,
20:19
AI enhances people who use it correctly. it will
20:24
further divide people who are good at using tools
20:26
for self enhancement from those that are not
20:28
the same way that the internet did. So I wanna
20:31
get onto the jujitsu part because I know that's
20:34
a huge part of what you do and we did promise
20:37
our listeners. So for the listeners, including
20:40
myself, who don't know anything about jujitsu
20:43
or only know a little bit about jujitsu, can
20:46
you kind of explain jujitsu as a sport, as a
20:50
philosophy, et cetera, and then tie that in a
20:53
bit? to how Jiu -Jitsu makes Anna Anna. Yay,
20:58
thank you. Great question. Yeah, it's a huge
20:59
part of my life. I train five, six days a week,
21:02
two to three, four, maybe seven, eight, seven
21:04
hours a day. And I compete. So when someone says
21:08
Jiu -Jitsu today, they're almost certainly referring
21:10
to Brazilian Jiu -Jitsu. We just say Jiu -Jitsu.
21:13
There is a Japanese Jiu -Jitsu, which is older,
21:15
that the story is the Japanese man moved to Brazil.
21:17
I'm going to mess up the history here, like 100
21:19
years ago and so forth, met with the original
21:21
Gracie family, and then they created Brazilian
21:23
jujitsu. And now this is what we practice in
21:27
America. And then there's jujitsu in the gi,
21:28
which is the white kimono type thing, like you
21:30
wear in judo. And then there is no gi grappling,
21:33
where you just wear tight clothes, and you can't
21:36
grab the clothes. So you're just grabbing the
21:38
body. So if you watch the UFC, for example, they're
21:40
doing wrestling and no -gi grappling combinations
21:42
of these techniques. So I train almost only in
21:46
no -gi jiu -jitsu. I don't really like the gi.
21:48
I pretend to do it once a week, but not really.
21:51
I prefer no -gi grappling. It's faster to me.
21:54
It's more athletic. I do a lot of my training
21:57
with professional fighters, and they don't train
21:59
the gi. culture I'm most comfortable with. So
22:04
I do a lot of my training with a fighting team,
22:08
and then I have my main coach, and I kind of
22:12
combine all that. But I love it, and I feel very
22:16
blessed that I have such great training partners.
22:18
I have some training partners that are legends
22:20
of combat sports that have trained their whole
22:21
lives. Coaches are some of the best competitors
22:24
and coaches in the world. And what you learn
22:26
from mindset and how to approach difficult things
22:30
and what you do with your inner talk and how
22:32
you create realities and so forth. I've learned
22:35
so much of that from competing and from having
22:37
the good luck of having access of these great
22:40
athletes and great competitors because that's
22:42
not something you can really learn in a book.
22:43
You have to put yourself in a difficult situation
22:46
and it really has to be difficult. It can't just
22:48
be like you're reading about it being difficult.
22:49
It has to be a very difficult situation and it
22:52
teaches you, it gives you confidence to create
22:55
outcomes in live situations where there's no
22:57
pause, there's no rewind. And so I'm very grateful
23:00
to have that because it's given me a lot, so
23:05
much. I mean, as an example, I had a tournament
23:07
last year in Miami, big tournament, and I signed
23:11
up for a bigger weight class than I normally
23:14
do because there's another tournament where they
23:15
don't have my weight class and I want to get
23:16
used to bigger girls, whatever. So I said, cool,
23:19
we're going to sign up for 70 plus kilos. And
23:21
I thought I would get normal chunky women, right?
23:23
Like a normal human. Fine. The first woman comes
23:27
out and again, I'm five foot 10. She was like
23:29
6 '2", and huge. She was 270 pounds. She was
23:33
more than 110 pounds bigger than me that day,
23:36
truly. And she comes out, and I love to compete.
23:39
I have no, I remember looking at her and I'm
23:41
like, you've got to be kidding. I thought maybe
23:43
they'd be 180, like a normal, normal chunky woman,
23:45
like a normal human who's 270. And I have in
23:47
my corner, my two friends, shout out to my friend,
23:50
Jers, in your roses, who at one point was a top
23:52
five UFC heavyweight. His last weigh -in was
23:55
as a man, and the UFC heavyweight division is
23:58
260 pounds. If you're a man fighting for title
24:00
in the UFC heavyweight division, your cap is
24:02
265. Who's 270? There's these women there. And
24:05
my other friend, my other friend and coach, Casey
24:07
Cavalcante, who's an amazing fighter, who's one
24:09
of the best guys in the world at 155, and like
24:11
the pride, the crazy rules set out in Asia. And
24:14
he's a great jiu -jitsu practitioner also with
24:15
my coaches. So he's in the corner. Between the
24:17
two of these guys, they probably easily have
24:19
150 professional fights, like a lot of fights.
24:22
And so they're there. And I was like, what? And
24:24
I turned and I'm like, oh, shit, this chick is
24:25
270. I said 230. In my mind, 230 came in my brain.
24:29
And they heard me and they're like, no, she's
24:31
270. And all I'm thinking was, she's bigger than
24:35
Jorginho. She's well over 100 pounds bigger than
24:37
me. Like, what is happening? Like, what is this,
24:39
right? And then Jay -Z, God bless him. Shout
24:42
out to him. Any... Typical person, even if they
24:46
wish you well, their reflexive response is gonna
24:48
be like, oh shit, like, wow. And then they're
24:50
gonna rally and be like, okay, but there's gonna
24:52
be this reflexive, like, oh my God, right? No,
24:54
his reflexive response was, this is great. Quite
24:58
literally, he was like, this is great. And I
25:00
looked at it, I'm like, what do you mean this
25:01
is great? Like, what are you talking about? And
25:03
he's like, oh, easy. He said easy. He goes, this
25:06
is great and it's easy. And I'm like, what are
25:08
you talking about? Oh, just guess or easy. Just
25:09
like shoving the throat, circle, circle, you
25:11
know, don't step out the mat. They'll stop the
25:12
clock. Just guess or easy. And I'm like, oh,
25:15
he made me believe it was easy. Like I truly,
25:17
he made me. I go out to the, to the, you know,
25:21
on the mat and I'm like, this is a video. I'm
25:22
like smiling like this. He convinced me that
25:24
this was like fun and easy. And it starts, she
25:27
comes out, you know, she's 100 pounds bigger
25:29
than everybody, right? So she's just trying to
25:30
squash you. And when I push her, and I was like,
25:33
wow, that's really 270, nothing happened, huh?
25:38
But then I'm like, all right, so I circle, you
25:40
know, I'm shoving, neck, whatever. It's a six
25:42
minute match. At two minutes, she's gassing.
25:44
I'm not, I could keep that pace for 20 minutes.
25:46
I take her shoulders, I push her across the mat
25:48
like a sled, let go before we add a bounce. All
25:50
right, I keep going. At three minutes, it sounds
25:52
like she's going to have cardiac arrest. I feel
25:54
safer getting close. I tried doing a snap down.
25:56
Whatever I did was not good, because she's taller
25:58
than me. I'm not used to taller opponents. But
25:59
anyway, she was so tired, she dropped. Like,
26:01
wow, I dropped side control down. She starts
26:04
turning towards me. I'm like, no, she can't get
26:06
up. So I spin around her head and I submit her
26:08
in a kimura. I was like, and she taps. And I
26:11
was like, what? But the lesson is, is that if
26:13
this crazy guy, I say this with love. I would
26:17
have been like, well, wow, let me not get hurt.
26:19
Do you know what I mean? Like something, you
26:21
would have been, fear would have somehow constrained
26:23
you. That's the more, I don't use the word normal.
26:26
That's the more typical response is to let fear
26:28
someway constrain you. And this guy went to default,
26:32
this is great, it's easy. And then you're like,
26:35
right, she's so big, you're gonna be able to
26:38
wear it down. Yeah, he just made me believe that
26:39
it was easy. That was the key, that it was like,
26:41
forget fear, he took it to easy. This is great.
26:44
And then you're like, wow, this is why he is
26:46
who he is. This is why I was such a great fighter.
26:48
And then you realize how quickly can your mind
26:50
in real time make something a positive? Like
26:53
how powerful is that belief system? And that's
26:56
something you can't learn in a book. You have
26:57
to be in a situation when you're like, okay,
26:59
there's no pause, there's no rewind. This is
27:00
great. Yeah. Right. I often wonder because you
27:04
want to have had... you know, brief conversations
27:07
about this and you speak about the creativity
27:09
that it takes to be under pressure, you know,
27:11
when you're in that ring and you're fighting
27:14
and having to make these quick decisions and
27:17
how the mindset is really all. And obviously
27:21
you have your training and advanced mathematics,
27:24
you know, formal education, but then you're involved
27:27
in this. How has that, you know, affected the
27:30
way you approach you know, once you're in the
27:33
office, you know, after a cool down and you're
27:35
getting ready to do your work, how has that mindset
27:38
seeped into the way that you analyze information
27:40
and the way that you do your day -to -day work?
27:43
Great question. So again, I've been an athlete
27:45
again in other things my whole life, you know,
27:47
which are probably more intense on than other
27:49
things. Well, I was pretty serious by fencing,
27:50
but for me, sports, I've always done my best
27:53
thinking after training. like point number one.
27:55
So I give the best talks after training. I'll
27:57
try to schedule training before I speak at conferences.
27:59
It truly clears my head. It makes me feel more
28:01
like me. It puts me in a flow state. It's like
28:04
moving meditation. I can't sit there and meditate
28:06
like this for an hour. People who can, God bless
28:08
them. I can't get flow state that way. So it
28:11
puts me in a flow state and it makes my mind,
28:14
makes me less prisoner to my conscious brain
28:17
in a way that's restrained, if that makes sense.
28:20
And so I get a lot of my best thinking done at
28:22
the train that's point number one, but then how
28:24
does the strategy? Well, so, you know, it becomes
28:27
the way that non -reactivity is a real skill.
28:30
And that's something that very difficult or challenging
28:34
training or competing will teach you is non -reactivity.
28:38
People, reactions are a choice. You can train
28:40
yourself to not react. And what I mean by non
28:43
-reactivity is not having things that are outside
28:45
of you. affect your equilibrium, affect your
28:48
mood, jar you, glitch you, something like this.
28:51
And that's probably one of the biggest lessons
28:53
that you learn from competitively training in
28:55
a sport is how do you observe something and just
28:57
be the stillness? And then have faith that you
29:01
don't... And the faith part is an interesting
29:04
part too. So again, I have the great luck. of
29:06
having had conversations and contact with some
29:07
of the best combat sport that's of all time.
29:09
I mean, just legends who competed in various
29:11
things since they were like five years old and
29:13
Olympians. And then I made all these things.
29:14
And I asked them, like, you know, what, what
29:15
do you think about before you go into a fight?
29:18
And I've gotten a very similar answer from numerous
29:20
people and they say, okay, you have to trust
29:22
your training. You can't, you can't fabricate
29:24
training. You have to do what you're supposed
29:25
to do, be prepared, all those things. And then
29:28
when you get there, they said it comes from God.
29:30
So there's this whole safe flow state thing.
29:33
So if you know that you are prepared and you
29:36
are who you are, you're acting to your training,
29:37
to your levels of integrity, whatever you are,
29:40
there's a certain freedom in saying the third
29:42
party is out of my control, but I have faith
29:43
in who I am and what I'm doing. I love that.
29:45
Mic drop. Okay, we're done. I love that because
29:51
we do talk a lot about mindset and inner talk.
29:55
And you mentioned fear when you hit the mat with
29:59
that big opponent. for us seeing other agents
30:04
or investors actually talk them out of stuff
30:07
and their mindset. They don't tune out the external.
30:12
They're reacting to everything outside of themselves
30:16
instead of doing that introspective look to say,
30:21
hey, I've got this. I've done my research. And
30:24
I'm a prime example. I did that with my first
30:26
investment. I let all these people say, oh, real
30:29
estate's risky. What if they don't move in? And
30:32
at the end of the day, if I had just... to your
30:34
point, tuned all that out, not reacted to any
30:37
of that, absorbed it and been still, I probably
30:40
would have started. No, I definitely would have
30:41
started my investing career sooner than I did.
30:44
So I love that you find that on the mat and I
30:48
find it interesting that you have your best flow
30:51
after the training. Yep. Oh, like by a big margin.
30:56
So Anna, you mentioned, you know, when you first
30:58
came into this. market, you were disappointed
31:02
with the way that people were looking at data
31:03
and the extra positions that they were creating,
31:07
you know, that you feel were out of thin air.
31:10
Has that gotten better? I mean, certainly it's
31:11
gotten better because you're here. But have you
31:14
seen an improvement in the way that people are
31:17
making the dots or you think you still think
31:20
that there is a long ways to go? A disconnect?
31:23
Yeah. Ah, good question. You know, I'm not sure
31:27
because I think that I've gotten, I don't engage
31:31
in the same conversations. I kind of stopped.
31:34
So I'm not sure. I like to think it's gotten
31:36
better. And I also like to think that it has
31:39
to get better because the consumer is getting
31:40
more sophisticated. That's another reality of
31:44
this market. As we keep getting more people coming
31:46
in from the Northeast, they're not going to be
31:49
satisfied with prior levels of whatever was going
31:53
on. So I think there's a higher expectation of
31:54
service and knowledge that's coming into our
31:56
market as a result of this domestic wealth inflow.
31:58
So I think it's raising the bar, which is a good
32:00
thing. So tell us about Miami Deal Sheet, which
32:03
I'm gathering is relatively new, like within
32:05
the last month or so, and Analytics Advisory.
32:09
So Analytics Miami has been around for over 10
32:12
years. That's where I publish these. It's basically,
32:14
it's not overtly commercial. It's a contact me,
32:16
but basically it serves as the conduit or the
32:17
platform on which we publish these reports. And
32:20
the press likes to quote me as Professor Anna,
32:22
right? So it's kind of more of the thought leadership
32:24
vehicle. So the new thing, the new entity, Miami
32:29
Deal Sheet, it's going to be rolling out now.
32:31
One of the primary, well, it has a few purposes.
32:33
One of the primary purposes of it is to shed
32:35
light on the pipeline for the consumer. So South
32:39
Florida has one of the most active pre -construction
32:41
pipelines in the country. We've normalized seeing
32:43
cranes everywhere. It's not typical. We're a
32:47
bit of the anomaly here. The whole tri -county
32:49
region is being built. As a consumer, if you're
32:51
coming down here and you want to purchase pre
32:53
-construction, It's decently opaque, actually.
32:55
It's very difficult to do your own homework.
32:57
It's not in the MLS. They might see it a few
32:59
units, but it's basically not in the MLS. It's
33:02
not syndicated anywhere. If you have certain
33:04
requirements, you want to spend X dollars, whatever.
33:07
It's very difficult to get a grasp of what's
33:09
coming, what's actually being built, and then
33:11
who actually delivers a good product. Anybody
33:13
can make a pretty brochure and say, here's what
33:14
I'm building. And especially now the light is
33:16
shining so bright in South Florida with a lot
33:18
of first time players coming in, all of these
33:20
things. There's a lot going on. So it's a very
33:21
opaque world. The consumer can kind of do three
33:24
things. They can go to a major brokerage. They're
33:26
going to sell their book most likely. They can
33:28
go to a realtor who typically, not to mind, some
33:32
people are very knowledgeable. The majority do
33:34
not have, I mean, it's opaque, do it yourself.
33:36
Majority of people do not grasp of the whole
33:38
pipeline, or they go to a random sales center
33:41
and hear what they have to say. Part of what
33:43
I do, so I do brokerage, but I also do consulting
33:46
with developers, helping them figure out what
33:48
to build, kind of roughly put. And so I have
33:51
a very granular, detailed knowledge database
33:54
of the entire South Florida. pipeline, who's
33:57
building what, who actually gets financing if
33:58
it was a good product, on top of what they're
34:01
actually saying that they're going to build.
34:03
And so we're making a service that's geared towards
34:06
pipeline advisory to the consumer and who can
34:10
avail themselves of this knowledge base that's
34:11
been built up by Analytics Miami. So it's impartial
34:14
objective, actually knowledgeable. consumer representation
34:17
for the South Florida pipeline. That way they
34:19
see the entire ecosystem and not just one piece
34:22
of it. Yeah, you talk to someone who knows it,
34:25
correct? Exactly right. It's shockingly opaque.
34:27
It really, really is. It's very difficult to
34:29
know what's being built. Obviously, there's some
34:31
big projects that get headlines and so forth.
34:34
But beyond that, it's very, very difficult to
34:35
know what's being built. And it's very difficult
34:37
to actually know what the timelines are. what's
34:39
actually moving forward, who has a good reputation,
34:42
who has a reputation that's not so good, always
34:44
delivers faulty product, all of these things.
34:46
There are a lot of factors that are very closed
34:48
world. So you need to have market knowledge plus
34:50
some type of boots in the brown knowledge of
34:53
what actually is being. constructed. So based
34:56
on all that you're seeing in the pipeline and
34:58
it probably runs the gamut from affordable housing
35:02
all the way up to luxury, right? Or are you only
35:05
focusing on the luxury side? Because of cost
35:08
of construction and land, there's nothing really
35:10
affordable in the pipeline unless it's a live
35:12
local apartment project, something like that.
35:15
It's impossible. You can't deliver anything under
35:17
1 ,000 a foot. It doesn't exist. Even Dry Lot
35:19
in Broward County is over 1 ,000 a foot now.
35:21
It just... So what do you think about what's
35:23
in the pipeline? Do you think that we're going
35:26
to be overbuilt in a couple of years? Do you
35:28
think it's spread out enough that it's deliverable?
35:32
And then, you know, how many people can afford
35:36
the multi -million dollar kind of price points
35:39
that we're building at? Good question. So...
35:43
Yeah, basically the starting point of the pipeline,
35:45
the least expensive prices are going to be in
35:48
studios and condo hotels. So every time you see
35:49
something under half a million, it's a studio
35:51
and a condo hotel. And then obviously it just
35:53
goes up from there to very, very high prices.
35:56
My answer is really based on this. When we look
35:58
at South Florida and we look at the percentage
36:00
increases in transaction volume, they're the
36:02
higher in the resale market, which can be indicative
36:04
of demand of what people are willing to pay.
36:07
The biggest percentage increases occur the higher
36:10
up you go in price per square foot, like to a
36:12
shopping level. This exists for single family
36:15
and for condos. Past $3 ,000 a foot, transaction
36:18
volume is up over 2 ,000 % tri -count. It basically
36:20
didn't exist before. sustained volume at these
36:24
very high levels. And again, the first half of
36:26
this year is shot to all -time highs. There's
36:28
like a renewed surge. So what I was saying was
36:29
the first surge that was post -COVID, post its
36:31
cataclysmic event, was fueled, I believe, by
36:34
uncertainty. People really didn't know what was
36:35
going on. There was a lot of uncertainty in the
36:36
air. And we had this surge in transaction volume
36:39
across South Florida, again, with the same pattern.
36:40
The higher you went, the price was priced per
36:42
square foot. the higher the slope, but it was
36:44
a surge across the board. A year or so ago, the
36:46
surge kind of subsided a little bit, not to pre
36:48
-COVID levels, but nothing goes in a straight
36:49
line forever. And then the first half of this
36:52
year, the first six months surged to all time
36:54
highs. I called it an echo exodus. And I believe
36:57
that this renewed surge, especially for prime
37:00
real estate, is fueled by certainty. It's becoming
37:03
very, very clear now, the extent to which states
37:05
are diverging on policy. Look at Mayor Mamdani
37:07
and look what's happening in California, all
37:08
these things. So it's very clear what's happening.
37:10
And I think that the luxury market here is a
37:12
scoreboard for that national realignment of wealth.
37:15
And again, the higher up you go in price per
37:16
square foot, which isolates for new and prime,
37:18
that's where the biggest uptake is in transaction
37:20
volume. So I think that it's a clear signal that
37:24
the demand for new and prime product is not going
37:27
away, it's actually getting stronger. And that's,
37:29
again, fueled by all this wealth migration. So
37:31
not all projects are obviously equal, however
37:34
they've executed, I don't know, like everyone's
37:36
a home run, obviously. But especially the single
37:39
family home market is so tight. So we're seeing
37:40
combinations happen in projects to a larger extent
37:43
also, because people are buying condos as single
37:45
family home replacements because they can't find
37:47
a new house. And the single family home market
37:49
is shocking. I mean, if you want to try to find
37:50
a new house in Miami Beach under 10 million,
37:52
There's like five options for a new house, quite
37:55
literally. There's almost nothing there. And
37:57
the new things being built are maxing out the
37:59
lots. They're more expensive and so forth. So
38:01
anyway, all the data shows that the biggest demand,
38:04
the highest growth in demand is for a new and
38:06
prime product. So I think that that indicates
38:09
a demand for new construction moving forward.
38:11
And again, project specifics or project specifics.
38:14
But I mean, the wellness projects are doing great.
38:16
The hospitality branded projects are doing great.
38:18
Yeah, and plus now more than ever, they got to
38:20
look at the macro forces because some of these
38:22
big mega projects are taking five years to to
38:25
bring it to fruition. So they got to have a really
38:27
long term view of where the market is going to
38:29
meet them by the time they complete the project.
38:32
Exactly, exactly. And we have a lot of stuff
38:34
coming. Look, we have Ken Griffin building in
38:36
Brickwell. We have also having West Palm. We
38:38
have all these people who I always say it's like,
38:39
listen, if if you don't if one does not have
38:42
the confidence in one's own ability to extrapolate
38:45
out trends or if you don't have that way of thinking.
38:47
Look at these people who have made fortunes,
38:49
seeing where the world is going. People who have
38:53
huge track records, making immense fortunes,
38:56
operating on their ability to see, are all in
39:00
in South Florida. And they're increasingly all
39:02
in in South Florida. And so in closing, what
39:06
are your recommendations for people that are
39:08
considering buying into the market today, considering
39:11
the levels that we're at? So kind of a two part
39:14
answer for single family. I don't see there's
39:17
gonna be, okay, single family below 500 ,000,
39:21
I've been tracking this for a bit, it's just
39:22
gone. It's down about 85 % in active listings,
39:26
Miami -Dade, the same pattern holds Tri -County,
39:28
now versus pre -COVID. There's something like
39:30
600 or 700 active listings, there used to be
39:32
a close to 4 ,000 in a given month. And single
39:35
family at those attainable price points, I don't
39:37
see it, it can't be replaced because the land
39:39
value construction cost, I mean, there are town
39:40
homes and homestead that cost more than this
39:42
now. So I don't see it. coming back. So if it's
39:45
a question about single family, I don't see any
39:48
sort of salvation coming in that because there's
39:51
a finite number of lots. And if we think that
39:53
people are going to keep moving here, it's just
39:54
it's a squeeze in this finite number of lots.
39:56
So the sooner the better kind of that's an easier
39:59
answer. The condo market is more of a segmented
40:01
answer because there are challenges with older
40:03
condos and that's going to be very case specific,
40:06
not all older condos are disasters, some are
40:08
disasters, so that's a very case specific thing,
40:11
but the ones that are not disasters, they're
40:13
out there, they're actually today far below replacement
40:16
cost. So that's what they have going for them.
40:18
Because if you want a two -bedroom condo and
40:20
your budget is under half a million dollars,
40:23
you have to buy an older building. Because again,
40:25
anything under half a million is a studio and
40:26
a condo hotel if it's new. And so the buildings
40:28
that were managed well and that are not disasters,
40:31
they're actually in a very good position because
40:33
they're so far below replacement cost. So in
40:35
the condo market, just do your homework because
40:36
there are buildings that are very challenged.
40:40
you want to be very aware of what you're buying
40:41
into on that end. On the higher end of the condo
40:44
market, it's a lifestyle choice, too, with condos.
40:49
It's kind of a different conversation in the
40:51
high end, which is the low end. In the high end,
40:52
people are buying condos for the experience,
40:54
the amenities and what it delivers. There's less
40:56
of a price sensitivity. So it's kind of a partitioned
41:00
answer. So when is the book coming, Anna? I know
41:06
I always ask you that question. I don't know.
41:12
I have a super story coming October 11th in Brickell
41:14
for my double life. That's going to be fun. I
41:16
had one there last year too. The event's called
41:17
Main Character Jujutsu. It's La Scala Brickell,
41:20
this venue in Brickell. Well, thank you. Thank
41:23
you so much for joining us on this, you know,
41:26
fast and action packed episode. I love this so
41:31
much. We really do appreciate you. And we are
41:33
we are all the better that you're that you're
41:35
part of this market and you're part of the conversation
41:37
continually. So we really thank you very much
41:40
for everything. And to all of our listeners,
41:43
we are going to post links to all of Anna's different
41:47
websites and information so you can contact her
41:50
in our show notes. Thank you, thank you. Thank
41:53
you guys. And if you have me on Instagram, Instagram's
41:56
my double life. It's me and financial. I love
42:00
it. I'm a follower. Absolutely. Thank you both.
42:04
I really appreciate it. I've known you both for
42:05
a long time and I really appreciate you taking
42:06
the time to have me on your show. And thank you
42:09
for the great conversation. And it's an exciting
42:11
time to be in South Florida. I think we're still
42:13
like in your five of 20 of the transformation.
42:16
That's right. That's right. Amen. All right.
42:18
Well, thank you, everybody, for joining us again
42:21
on this very special episode of Between Two Chairs.
42:24
Jennifer, say bye. Bye.