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The Injection Reshaping Business · What the Flux

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  Speaker 1: This is what the floods. I'm Larissa and it's Friday,
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  Speaker 1: the seventeenth of July. Here are our three biggest news
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  Speaker 1: stories today. For our first story, ESBI has drewn more
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  Speaker 1: than seventeen million feever World Cup viewers in Australia for
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  Speaker 1: the first one hundred matches of the tournament. The broadcaster
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  Speaker 1: reportedly paid thirty million to air all one hundred and
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  Speaker 1: four matches for free. Espius says the success could make
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  Speaker 1: it tough to hold onto the rights in twenty thirty.
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  Speaker 1: For our next story, v HP, Australia's biggest mining company
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  Speaker 1: could lose one hundred and twenty million in revenue a
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  Speaker 1: day as workers strike at its port Headland Export Terminal,
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  Speaker 1: the world's biggest bolt export port. And for our final story,
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  Speaker 1: Spotify has removed over seventy five million songs that have
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  Speaker 1: been generated by AI this year. Around one hundred thousand
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  Speaker 1: songs are uploaded to Spotify daily, and the streaming giant
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  Speaker 1: says more and more of those are AI slop tracks.
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  Speaker 1: In this series Going Deep, we'll be doing bite sized
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  Speaker 1: explorations into the most interesting industries, businesses, and economic events
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  Speaker 1: in Australia and around the world. For today's episode, we're
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  Speaker 1: diving into the weight loss drug economy, a fifty eight
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  Speaker 1: billion dollar industry built on injections that hack your hunger signal.
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  Speaker 1: We've seen food companies scramble to reformulate their products, airlines
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  Speaker 1: calculate what lighter passengers mean for their fuel bill, and
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  Speaker 1: gyms completely rewrite their pitch. In this episode, we'll explore
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  Speaker 1: how o Zimpic and Weigov went from diabetes treatments to
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  Speaker 1: cultural phenomena, and what a world of meaningfully lighter people
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  Speaker 1: actually means for business, public health, and your hip pocket.
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  Speaker 1: Over to you, Brett and Justin.
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  Speaker 2: Thanks, Larissa be Man. I take you back to twenty
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  Speaker 2: twenty one, some when you knew whether it was your colleague,
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  Speaker 2: a celebrity, maybe a GP started mentioning a diabetes drug
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  Speaker 2: that made people lose a lot of weight very fast.
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  Speaker 3: I recall vaguely it sounded almost too good to be true. Yeah. Well,
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  Speaker 3: the drug is called semiglutide, and Novo Nordics, a Danish
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  Speaker 3: farmer company that was founded in nineteen twenty three, originally
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  Speaker 3: developed it to manage type two diabetes under the brain
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  Speaker 3: name Ozepic, which has approved in twenty seventeen, but it
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  Speaker 3: had quite an interesting side effect. It hacked your hunger signal.
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  Speaker 2: And people on it often say that food is just
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  Speaker 2: less interesting.
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  Speaker 3: They were suddenly forgetting they had family sized blocker Cadbury
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  Speaker 3: Carra milk in the boundary. But ben Man.
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  Speaker 2: In twenty twenty one, things got really interesting in this
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  Speaker 2: space because the Food and Drug Administration in the US
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  Speaker 2: approved a higher dose version called Wigovy.
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  Speaker 3: And this version was specifically for weight loss.
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  Speaker 2: Then came their celebrity endorsements, the tiktoks that before and after.
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  Speaker 3: Suddenly ozempic became less of a diabetes medication and more
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  Speaker 3: of a Hollywood accessory.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: In fact, by twenty twenty five, one in eight US
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  Speaker 2: adults had tried a GLP one drug like we gov
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  Speaker 2: or ozempic, and the US obesity rate dropped from forty
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  Speaker 2: percent in twenty twenty two to thirty seven percent in
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  Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. And be man, in a country as
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  Speaker 2: large as US, We're talking seven point six million fewer
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  Speaker 2: people living with obesity.
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  Speaker 3: And when the success arrived, the competitors came to yeap
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  Speaker 3: Nova noortics.
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  Speaker 2: Competitor Eli Lilly entered with their own weight loss drug
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  Speaker 2: called zet Bound, and the two companies now dominate the
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  Speaker 2: market completely.
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  Speaker 3: Together, they reported a combined forty five billion dollars in
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  Speaker 3: golp one revenue and that was in twenty twenty four alone.
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  Speaker 2: And the entire weight loss drug market is currently valued
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  Speaker 2: at fifty eight billion dollars globally and analysts reckon it
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  Speaker 2: will go to four hundred and seventy bill in cumulative
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  Speaker 2: US revenue alone by the end of twenty thirty.
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  Speaker 3: And Josi wait, it's fair to say that an OVNAORDICSIC
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  Speaker 3: and elially have gone gang faster since these drugs are released.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, they've seen it combined seven hundred billion dollars in
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  Speaker 2: market cap gains since these drugs are launched.
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  Speaker 3: So where are we at right now? Well, the drugs
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  Speaker 3: are working.
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  Speaker 2: People are getting light up, but it also means entire
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  Speaker 2: industries are now scrambling to figure out what that means
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  Speaker 2: for their business model.
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  Speaker 3: Let's start with food, because this is where the numbers
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  Speaker 3: get real. Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: Research shows that household snack spending falls between five and
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  Speaker 2: eleven percent within six months as someone starting a GOLP
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  Speaker 2: one drug like we GOVI.
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  Speaker 3: And processed food companies are quietly sweating because.
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  Speaker 2: For decades, the food industry spent billions to engineer food
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  Speaker 2: to be addictive and impossible to stop eating.
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  Speaker 3: What if we've made pringles mathematically irresistible.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, many of these companies dedicated years to perfecting the
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  Speaker 2: perfect natro cheese flavor dust, only to be defeated by
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  Speaker 2: a tiny injection pen.
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  Speaker 3: According to ey Parthenon, changes linked to golp one drug
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  Speaker 3: use are expected to cause up to twelve billion bucks
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  Speaker 3: and snack sales lost over the next decade.
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  Speaker 2: PETERWC called the shift size myth. So processed food companies
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  Speaker 2: are pivoting real fast, so now even launching new products
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  Speaker 2: that will appeal to the golp one customers.
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  Speaker 3: Get this. Nestle launched a product line called Vital Pursuit,
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  Speaker 3: which is effectively frozen meals designed for GOLP one users
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  Speaker 3: and paired it with protein drinks to counter muscle loss.
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  Speaker 2: General Meals launched higher protein cherio cereal to target GOLP
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  Speaker 2: one users.
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  Speaker 3: And companies like PepsiCo and Coca Cola and Craft Times
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  Speaker 3: are now actively reformulating products.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, their products are now pivoting towards high protein, high fiber,
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  Speaker 2: smaller portion.
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  Speaker 3: Meal mixed up. It's the airlines. Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: January twenty twenty six report down the four largest US
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  Speaker 2: carriers could now collectively save up to five hundred and
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  Speaker 2: eighty million US dollars per year in fuel costs as
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  Speaker 2: passengers get lighter.
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  Speaker 3: If there's one thing airlines love more than customer satisfaction,
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  Speaker 3: it's shaving operational costs.
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  Speaker 2: Like Jetstar charging a fortune if you're one gram over
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  Speaker 2: the seven kilogram carry on limits.
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  Speaker 3: Because fuel is one of the airline industry's biggest expenses. Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: In fact, the airline industry spent nearly thirty nine billion
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  Speaker 2: US dollars on fuel annually, so even a one percent
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  Speaker 2: reduction is pretty meaningful.
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  Speaker 3: And if humans collectively way less, planes burn less fuel. Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: To give airlines another six months and they'll probably respond
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  Speaker 2: by removing another two centimeters of leg room, another five
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  Speaker 2: centimeters of seed space. And what about gyms, Well, initially
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  Speaker 2: they panicked because they thought if a weekly injection could
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  Speaker 2: melt the weight off, why would anyone ever bother doing
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  Speaker 2: a burpie? Ever?
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  Speaker 3: Again? But does? It turns out golp one drugs cause
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  Speaker 3: significant weight loss, but also muscle loss.
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  Speaker 2: In fact, up to forty percent of total weight loss
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  Speaker 2: can be lean mass.
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  Speaker 3: So people were not just becoming smaller, but also more
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  Speaker 3: fragile versions of themselves. And suddenly Jim's realize we can
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  Speaker 3: monetize this. US gym Equinox launched dedicated GOLP one protocol
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  Speaker 3: that has now been rolled out across eighty clubs internationally.
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  Speaker 2: And the fitness industry is a new pitch. Isn't lose weight,
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  Speaker 2: it's don't lose muscle while you do.
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  Speaker 3: Lose weight already. So where is this whole going? Well,
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  Speaker 3: it's hard to know. What we do.
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  Speaker 2: You know is that the gop one market is projected
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  Speaker 2: to grow up to one hundred and fifty billion US
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  Speaker 2: dollars by twenty thirty.
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  Speaker 3: And wait, when an addressable market grows to that size,
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  Speaker 3: you can bet your bottom dollar. The number of competitors
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  Speaker 3: is growing as well.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, there's new drugs from Amgen, Viking Therapeutics, and Firezer
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  Speaker 2: developing competitors right now as we speak. Long term, the
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  Speaker 2: structural loses the companies that create processed snacks.
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  Speaker 3: Of food and fast food operators and pretty much any
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  Speaker 3: business that relies on people that eat a lot or
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  Speaker 3: get sick from eating a lot.
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  Speaker 2: The structure winners, gyms, protein food brands, farmer obviously, and maybe,
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  Speaker 2: just maybe public health budgets if the long term disease
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  Speaker 2: burden actually fall.
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  Speaker 3: So Jazi boy, if you take a step back, we've
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  Speaker 3: spent the past thirty years treating obesity as a will
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  Speaker 3: power problem. Yeah, the messaging was always eat less, move more,
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  Speaker 3: be disciplined if you want to lose weight. But GOP
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  Speaker 3: one drugs change that conversation entirely.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, because for the first time, people aren't fighting hunger
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  Speaker 2: every second of the day.
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  Speaker 3: The food noise, it's got a little bit quieter. And
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  Speaker 3: now entire industries are adjusting to a world where millions
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  Speaker 3: of people just want less food and waity less, which
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  Speaker 3: is honestly one of the strangest economic shifts that we've
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  Speaker 3: ever seen. Right now, the food industry and the fitness industry,
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  Speaker 3: and even the aviation industry, they're all adjusting to a
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  Speaker 3: world with meaningfully lighter humans in it.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, and b Man, hopefully with less eating and less obesity,
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  Speaker 2: it leads a fewer heart attacks, less type two diabetes,
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  Speaker 2: lower healthcare costs.
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  Speaker 3: But this is all to play out in the coming years.
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  Speaker 2: One thing we do know is that GLP one, drugs
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  Speaker 2: haven't just chunk wastelignes, it's also shrunk the revenue of
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  Speaker 2: the junk food industry too. Plus Tam, we hope you
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  Speaker 2: enjoyed our deep dive on the weight loss drug economy
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  Speaker 2: and the impact it's having on so many other industries too.
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  Speaker 2: Next week we're going to be doing a deep dive
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  Speaker 2: into the Aussie wine industry, a three billion dollar export
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  Speaker 2: industry that lost its biggest customers overnight and still hasn't
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  Speaker 2: quite rebounded. Thanks for listening and we'll see you on Wednesday.