Latest / The Demographics Podcast with Fexingo: Aging Populations, Birth Rates, and Economic Impact / How Falling Birth Rates Reshape the Skincare and Cosmetics Industry
Transcript
- Lucas: So we've spent a bunch of episodes looking at how falling birth rates ripple through the economy — hotels, toys, weddings, even the pet industry. Luna: Right, and each time we think we've hit the most surprising angle, the next one somehow tops it. Lucas: Well, today's might be the most personal yet — the skincare and cosmetics industry. Because when birth rates drop, the customer base doesn't just shrink, it ages. And that changes what people buy, how much they spend, and what they actually want from a jar of cream. Luna: And I imagine the 'anti-aging' messaging that dominated for decades doesn't work the same way when the median consumer is 55. Lucas: Exactly. The beauty industry has been pivoting from 'anti-aging' to 'pro-aging' for a few years now, but the demographic pressure is accelerating that shift. Let me give you a concrete number: according to market research from Euromonitor, the share of skincare sales going to consumers aged 50 and older in developed markets rose from 28 percent in 2019 to 37 percent last year. Luna: That's a huge jump in just six years. And those consumers have money — they're not buying drugstore basics. Lucas: They're not. The average price per unit for a moisturizer bought by someone over 50 is about $62, compared to $34 for someone under 35. That's nearly double. So brands are chasing that wallet, which means premiumization is accelerating. L'Oréal's high-end division, which includes Lancôme and SkinCeuticals, grew 11 percent last year while their mass-market lines barely moved. Luna: So the mass market isn't growing because there are fewer young people entering it, while the premium segment captures older consumers who trade up. Lucas: That's the structural story. But there's also a product-formulation angle. When your customer base is older, their skin concerns shift. They want barrier repair, SPF built in, ingredients that address hormonal changes — particularly menopause. Luna: Ah, the menopause skincare market. I've seen that becoming a category unto itself. Lucas: It's projected to hit $10 billion globally by 2030. Brands like Stripes, founded by Naomi Watts, and Pause Well-Aging are dedicated entirely to this. But even legacy players are creating sub-lines. Estée Lauder launched a 'Revitalizing Supreme+' series specifically targeting women over 50, with clinical claims around collagen loss and elasticity. Luna: And this is all happening because there are simply more women in that age bracket. In Japan, for example, women over 50 now outnumber women under 20 by nearly two to one. Lucas: Japan is the bellwether. Their skincare market has been flat in volume terms for a decade, but revenue keeps rising because the average unit price keeps climbing. That's the falling birth rate signature: fewer units, higher value per unit. Luna: We saw that with watches, with appliances, with weddings. The pattern keeps repeating. Lucas: If today's episode gave you a new lens on the beauty aisles, you might appreciate knowing this show stays ad-free because listeners choose to support it. You can find that at buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. No pressure — just a way to keep these conversations going. Luna: And it really does make a difference. Every contribution helps us dig into these niche angles that most business coverage ignores. Lucas: Alright, back to the demographics. Another shift worth noting is male grooming. As the population ages, older men are becoming a significant skincare demographic. The global men's skincare market was worth about $12 billion in 2025, and the fastest-growing segment is men over 55. Luna: That's interesting because traditionally, men's grooming was a young man's game — acne treatments, beard oils, that sort of thing. Lucas: Right. But now you've got brands like Brickell and Jack Black marketing specifically to older men with products for redness, dark spots, and moisture retention. L'Oréal Men Expert has a 'Vita Lift' line that's basically anti-aging for men, and it's their top-selling men's range in Europe. Luna: So the masculinity barrier to skincare is weakening as men age and their skin visibly changes. They become more willing to use products. Lucas: Exactly. And this ties back to birth rates because in countries with rapidly aging populations — South Korea, Italy, Germany — the male skincare adoption rate is highest. In South Korea, men now account for about a quarter of all skincare sales, and the average male consumer is 47. Luna: Which is a very different profile from the Western stereotype of a teenage boy buying acne wash. Lucas: Totally different. Now, the other side of the coin is what happens to brands that depend on youth. Think about the teen-focused lines — Clean & Clear, Neutrogena's acne range, Proactiv. Their core demographic is literally shrinking. In the US, the number of teenagers peaked in 2020 and has been declining since. Luna: So those brands are either having to pivot or they're losing shelf space. Lucas: Neutrogena has been trying to reposition itself as 'dermatologist-recommended for all ages,' but it's an uphill battle. Their sales dropped about 4 percent last year. Meanwhile, CeraVe and La Roche-Posay — brands that market to adults with skin concerns — have been growing double digits. Luna: And those are the brands that dermatologists actually recommend. So there's a credibility factor. Lucas: That's the third big trend: the rise of dermatologist-backed, clinically tested formulations. Older consumers are more educated about ingredients. They're not buying based on pretty packaging or celebrity endorsements. They want ceramides, peptides, retinoids — and they want evidence. Luna: So the marketing itself has to change. Instead of 'turn back the clock,' it's 'support your skin barrier'. Lucas: Exactly. And that's a more sustainable message, because it doesn't set up false expectations. Brands that lean into education and transparency are winning. The Ordinary, for example, built its entire model on ingredient transparency and low prices, and it's now the most-searched skincare brand globally. Luna: But The Ordinary's customer base is actually quite young, isn't it? I thought their core demographic was millennials and Gen Z. Lucas: It is, but that's the fascinating part. The brand's parent company, Deciem, also owns NIOD, which targets older consumers with higher price points. So they have a portfolio strategy. Estée Lauder, which owns Deciem, is essentially hedging across age cohorts. Luna: Smart. Because no single brand can capture the full demographic curve when it's shifting so fast. Lucas: Exactly. And this brings us to the distribution side. As the customer base ages, online sales become less dominant and specialty retail — like dermatology clinics, medi-spas, and department store counters — regains importance. Older shoppers want in-person consultation. Luna: So the direct to consumer boom that worked for millennials might not work for the silver economy. Lucas: That's right. A 2025 survey by McKinsey found that consumers over 55 were three times more likely to buy skincare in-store than online, compared to under-35s. So brands are reopening physical counters and investing in store associates who can give personalized advice. Luna: That's a reversal of the trend we saw in the 2010s when everyone was closing stores. Lucas: Complete reversal. And it's not just about skincare. Cosmetics — foundation, concealer, lipstick — are also seeing an age-driven shift. The fastest-growing segment in color cosmetics is 'age-defying' formulas: transfer-resistant lipsticks, blurring primers, buildable coverage that doesn't settle into lines. Luna: I've noticed that even drugstore brands now have 'anti-aging' foundation lines. CoverGirl's 'Simply Ageless' launched a few years ago but it's still a top seller. Lucas: And the interesting thing is, these products are being bought by women in their 60s and 70s, who are a growing demographic. In the US, the number of women aged 65 and older increased by 30 percent since 2015. That's a huge new market that didn't exist a generation ago. Luna: So the beauty industry is essentially being reshaped by the same demographic force that's reshaping pensions and healthcare. It's just less obvious. Lucas: Exactly. And the question going forward is whether the industry can keep innovating fast enough to serve a population that's not just older, but also more diverse in its needs. There's also a sustainability angle — older consumers tend to be more loyal to brands and less likely to impulse-buy, which could reduce waste. Luna: That's an optimistic note — that an aging customer base might actually push the industry toward higher quality, less waste. Lucas: It could. But it also means that brands that can't adapt — that still rely on youth-oriented marketing and cheap ingredients — will get squeezed. The next decade will separate the companies that understand demographics from those that don't. Luna: And we'll be watching. Thanks for the fresh perspective, Lucas. Lucas: Always a pleasure. Stay curious.