Shows / Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
A five-day-a-week morning podcast on Bitcoin market structure, on-chain data, ETF flows, derivatives, macro risk, and key signals for active investors. Each episode turns the latest Adler AM brief into a clear, data-driven audio update. Not financial advice.
Episodes
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Short Liquidations Hit $290 Million in a Day
On November 4, Bitcoin short liquidations reached $289 million, the highest since September 21. The funding rate has remained positive since…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Short-Term Holders’ Profit Cushion Shrinks to 1.8%
Bitcoin trades 1.8% above short-term holder cost basis at $75.8K. STH SOPR falls below 1 as moved coins show losses. Read the on-chain analysis.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Futures Analysis: BTC Falls to $76K
Bitcoin falls to $76K as the futures index stays below 45. Explore futures activity and the 5.1% gap below the model’s $80,850 fair value.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Active Addresses Down 43% Since December 2024
Bitcoin active addresses fell 43% from their December 2024 peak. See the 2018 comparison and 30-day average daily transfer volume of 819,000 BTC.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Binance Hack October 2026: $6.3B Losses, $3B Frozen
Binance hack on October 29, 2026: $6.3B in estimated losses, $3B frozen. BTC, ETH and USDT transfers explained, plus withdrawal updates.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Distribution Falls 22% in a Week
Bitcoin's 30-day LTH distribution fell from 310K to 240K BTC in a week. Long-term holder MVRV is 1.65. On-chain analysis for October 29.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Realize Losses: On-Chain Analysis
Bitcoin short-term holder losses dominate exchange inflows as the 24h balance hits -18.6K BTC. On-chain analysis of STH stress on Oct 27, 2026.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin 6% Above Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $76K
Bitcoin profit cushion over the $76K short-term holder cost basis fell from 8.7% to 5.9% in a week. Plus the Young/Old Ratio crossover.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Exchange Outflows at 1.5K BTC a Day, Futures Neutral
Bitcoin has left exchanges for a month, with net outflows at 1.5K BTC per day. Why outflows slowed and what neutral futures positioning means.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Whale Unrealized Profit Falls 53% as Inflows Rise
Short-term Bitcoin whales’ unrealized profit fell from a record $9.8B to $4.6B as 10.6K BTC hit exchanges on Oct 20. What it means for the market
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Price Correction: BTC Holds Above $80.4K Support
Bitcoin is down 6% from its October high and trades 1.5% above $80.4K support. Futures sellers lead. Is this a correction or a downtrend?
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Supply Jumps 422K BTC: New Buyers
Bitcoin short-term holder supply hit 4.08M BTC, the highest since mid-June, as new buyers enter. STH cost basis is $74.9K, profit cushion 10%.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Bollinger Band Squeeze: Width at 4.9%, Key Levels
Bitcoin Bollinger Band width fell to 4.9%, the tightest since mid-September. Breakout levels to watch: $86.0K above and $81.9K below.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders in Profit Since 2023: 72% Cushion
Bitcoin long-term holder realized price is $48.6K, with BTC 72% above it. LTHs in profit since Jan 2023, but their cost basis is falling.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Miner Fees Below 1%: S19 vs S21 Cost per BTC
Fees are just 0.64% of Bitcoin miner revenue. At $0.05/kWh, mining 1 BTC costs $86.7K with an Antminer S19 vs $44.3K with an S21.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Long Liquidations Hit $520M: Stress Index Near Peak
Bitcoin fell to $80.7K as $520M in longs were liquidated Oct 2-8. The Stress Index hit 49.9, near 3-month highs, then eased to 7. What's next?
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Falls to $82.8K After FOMC Minutes Signal Rate Hike
Fed minutes signal another rate hike by year-end. Bitcoin falls to $82.8K, Regime Score at -22. What FOMC said and the -30 bear threshold.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Price Drops Below $84K as Long Liquidations Spike
itcoin fell from $85.5K to $83.9K overnight as long liquidations and taker sell pressure spiked. Shakeout or start of sustained selling?
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Reduce Positions for 7th Week
Bitcoin long-term holders cut positions for a 7th week (-73.4K BTC). LTH SOPR at 1.18 shows profit-taking as the market absorbs supply.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Buying Pressure Hits 4.9 - Highest Since August
Bitcoin futures buying pressure hit 4.9, the highest since August, as open interest rose 9K BTC in 24h. The key level for new longs is $83K.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Rises to $73.7K
Bitcoin trades 14% above the short-term holder cost basis (realized price) at $73.7K, while the long-term holder cost basis falls to $48.8K.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Supply in Profit at 72% as Upward Momentum Fades
Bitcoin supply in profit hit its highest level since January and now stands at 72%, while price momentum has fallen to zero at $83K.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Profit-Taking Down 19%: Are Holders Selling Less?
Bitcoin realized 19% less profit than at the August peak despite a higher price. STH SOPR fell to 1.01 as short-term holder profit narrows.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Net Exchange Outflows Exceed 16K BTC per Day
Bitcoin exchange outflows averaged 16.1K BTC per day, the strongest weekly pace since October 2025, as futures positioning slips below zero.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
How Bitcoin Reacted to the Bitget Hack
Bitget hacked for $351M, withdrawals paused. On-chain data shows BTC kept leaving exchanges after the hack, with no panic inflows.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Is 37% Above Long-Term Holders' Cost Basis
Bitcoin is 37% above long-term holders' cost basis as MVRV recovers from breakeven. Compare today's drawdown to past bull market corrections.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin 6% Above Its Yearly Average for the First Time Since November
Bitcoin reclaims the 365D moving average at $80.5K for the first time since November 2025. Trend Pulse flips to bull mode. Key levels to watch.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply Decline Slows Nearly 5x
Bitcoin long-term holder supply fell 21.7K BTC in 30 days vs 105.9K in late August. LTH SOPR slipped to 0.994 as BTC rose to $81.2K.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Rises 1.5%: Taker Order Pressure Turns Positive
Bitcoin recovered to $77.4K as Taker Order Pressure flipped to +0.86 and short liquidations dominated at +54.52. Is the buying edge real?
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin 7% Above Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $71.3K
Bitcoin at $76.2K vs STH realized price $71.3K: short-term holder profit cushion fell from 10% to 7% in a week. Exchange inflow P/L nears zero.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
92% Chance of a Fed Rate Hike: Risk of a Stock Pullback
Markets see a Fed rate hike as near-certain. History shows stocks often dip after a first hike. What that means for the S&P 500 and Bitcoin.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Bollinger Bands Squeeze: No Clear Edge Yet
Bitcoin Bollinger Band width sits at 4.81%, below 6% for six days. Price holds $76.6K-$80.4K as taker flow turns neutral. No clear edge yet.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Holds Near $77K as Sellers Step Up Pressure
Bitcoin holds near $77K despite rising derivatives pressure and a persistent Coinbase discount. On-chain read on whether buyers can confirm.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Supply in Profit Hits 69% in Fastest Recovery
Bitcoin supply in profit hit 69% with a +41% 90-day change, one of the fastest on record. Why the speed shows scale, not a regime shift.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Sold 549K BTC After Squeeze
Bitcoin short-term holders sent 549K BTC to exchanges while STH-SOPR stayed above break-even. Price held most gains despite selling.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Sold 98K BTC, Selling Risk Remains
Bitcoin long-term holders sold 98.5K BTC since August as profit-taking resumed. Supply is stabilizing, but selling risk still remains.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Down 1.5%: Sellers Dominate as Open Interest Rises
Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $78.7K in two days as taker order pressure turned negative and open interest rose, a seller-driven leverage build-up.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Open Interest Is Rising Toward a Bullish Regime
Bitcoin open interest is rising: +11.2K BTC with price up 3.9%. Fresh long leverage, not short covering, lifts BTC toward a bullish regime.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Stablecoin Flows Neutral After 113 Days
Stablecoin exchange netflow turned positive after 113 days of outflows but is already fading. SSR is easing yet still elevated. Neutral.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Sentiment Index: 88 to 70, Still Extreme Greed
Bitcoin's Unified Sentiment Index cooled from 88 to 70 but stays in extreme greed - driven by Fear & Greed while votes and $77.6K price lag.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin LTH Distribution Hits 282K BTC After Short Squeeze
Long-term holder distribution rose to 282K BTC after the short squeeze as LTH MVRV hit 1.60. Can spot demand absorb the new supply?
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Open Interest Falls as Funding Rate Doubles
Bitcoin open interest fell 3.8% while funding rates doubled since Friday - long bias is rising within shrinking OI, raising long-squeeze risk.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Miners Resume Selling as Fee Revenue Stays Below 1%
Bitcoin's MPI turned positive for the first time since February as miners resume selling, while fee revenue stays below 1% - 377 days now.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss Ratio Crosses Above 1 Again
Bitcoin's 90-day realized profit/loss ratio crossed above 1 as unrealized losses fell from 18% to 7% easing stress that still needs confirmation.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin On-Chain Flows Reverse, but Demand Stays Weak
Bitcoin Realized Cap flows turned net positive and apparent demand topped issuance for six days, but at 2.52 it sits in the weakest 10% since 2024.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Key Market Resistance - $83K
BTC reclaimed the STH cost basis at $68K and broke above SMA200/SMA111, putting short-term holders back in profit. SMA365 at $83K is resistance.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
75% of STH Supply in Profit, but Coins Flow to Exchanges
STH supply in profit jumped to 74.9% as BTC rebounded 22% to $77K, but net flow to exchanges crossed +25K BTC. Watch for distribution pressure.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin is Up 20% - What is Driving the Rally?
Bitcoin rose 20%, yet US spot premium is negative and open interest in BTC dropped 8.7%.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin in Strong Bull Regime, Short Liquidations Hit $1.42B
Bitcoin Regime Score hit Strong Bull (60) at $69.5K. The turn started Aug 17, before a $1.42B short squeeze amplified the breakout.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Buyers Dominate as Open Interest Declines
Net Taker Volume stays positive while Bitcoin open interest declines - buy-side demand without leverage. Watch for a break above $66.8K.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
LTH Barely Selling BTC: 1.30x Cost Basis, Low Risk Zone
Bitcoin holds 1.30x the LTH cost basis in the Low Risk zone. Supply near ATH with minimal spending shows no distribution. Watch a $74K reclaim.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Down 6%, No Capitulation Yet
STH MVRV at 0.94 and SOPR near 0.996 show Bitcoin short-term holders underwater, not capitulating. Watch $59.3K support, a SOPR reclaim of 1.0.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Coins in Profit Near Local Lows, Network Activity Up 23%
Bitcoin UTXOs in Profit sit near local lows at 53%, while 30-day transfer volume has jumped 23% from its April low, above its yearly average.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Miners: Fees at 2015 Lows, Hashrate Down 23%
Bitcoin miner fees sit near 2015 lows at 0.71% of revenue; hashrate is down 23% but holding. Watch a return above 1% for a regime shift.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Volatility Squeeze at 4% - ADX Confirms No Trend
Bitcoin volatility compressed to 3.8% and ADX fell to 11 - an extreme Bollinger Bands squeeze, no trend. Watch for band expansion, ADX above 20.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
New BTC buyers near breakeven, 3-6M cohort underwater
Bitcoin 0-3M holder NUPL is near breakeven while the 3-6M cohort sits at -0.14, its Realized Cap 69.6% below peak. Watch 3-6M to reclaim zero.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
MVRV Z-Score Falls to 0.41: Correction Without Capitulation
MVRV Z-Score at 0.41, below its 1.69 mean but above zero. BTC holds ~13% over the $57.6K cost basis. Lose it and $46.1K stress opens up.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
LTHs are Realizing Losses, but Their Cost Basis is 30% Below the Market Price
LTH SOPR below 1.0 does not mean the entire long-term holder cohort is under pressure. The average LTH cost basis is $49.3K, while Bitcoin trades at $64.3K, so…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Rebounds to $64.6K, but Fresh Demand has not Returned
The current price rebound is not confirmed by flows. The apparent demand-to-issuance ratio and net age flow are recovering from their July lows but remain…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Price Prediction August 2026: Macro & ETF Outlook
Bitcoin price prediction for August 2026 with historical performance, support and resistance, macro outlook, ETF flows, and on-chain data.