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Wednesday BEST BETS | Don't Be Misled | MLB & WNBA | 7/8/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm. Man, a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your checks, the black coffee.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: On the felt Man, you look like a mess. Three
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: teen Parlette turned the dust in your head. Now you
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: stare at the chips like they made you this man.
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet? Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: Your name steal mean something? Ne somebody for show. Put
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Nine, hold on, hold on nothing.
• 0:55
  Speaker 3: Nice now, hold on, hold on me, but it don't
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: get the crown. Hold on, hold on.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: And stay with me. Now, what's up, everybody?
• 1:29
  Speaker 4: It's Toad Back with you with Toadstool Sports. Wednesday, July eighth.
• 1:35
  Speaker 4: We went to and two on the show yesterday. I'm
• 1:37
  Speaker 4: pretty pissed because the one real loser that I had
• 1:40
  Speaker 4: yesterday was the one that I added on the fly.
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: I gotta stop doing that. Cleveland Indians, that was a
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: bad one. Didn't get there.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: TODJ.
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: Bradley smoked them in the game. I was kind of
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: surprised that that's happened. Although did that happen? Although Cleveland
• 1:55
  Speaker 4: is not a good offense, But yeah, I mean, all
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: three of the other game should have been a win.
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: The other baseball game was a win with the Chicago Cubs.
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: I mean, that was a pretty easy one. The bullpen
• 2:07
  Speaker 4: was able to hang on to the lead at the
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: end to they never trailed in the game. Argentina in
• 2:14
  Speaker 4: the afternoon. I don't know what to tell you about that.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 2:16
  Speaker 4: I'm sick of arguing with people about this. Like everybody's
• 2:19
  Speaker 4: biased against Argentina, and I understand why they're an overhyped team.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: They're a bunch of Zionists.
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: You know, I get not liking Argentina, but don't you
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: can't let that bias you when you're trying to win
• 2:34
  Speaker 4: money at betting this, you know what I mean. Argentina
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: was the better team in that game. You cannot argue
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: against that. Oh but they were losing two to nothing. Yeah,
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: I know, because Egypt had a couple of fluke goals,
• 2:47
  Speaker 4: Like did you see how they scored the second I
• 2:49
  Speaker 4: think it was.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: The second one was like an unbelievable mistake by Argentina.
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: It was almost as bad as the US's mistake the
• 2:56
  Speaker 4: other day against Belgium.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Well that's the difference story.
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: Belgium dominated them any but Argentina dominated this game.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Statistically.
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: They had like two thirds of the possession, they had
• 3:05
  Speaker 4: three times as many shots on goal, and the numbers
• 3:09
  Speaker 4: looked like that. When they were losing two to nothing,
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: the numbers still looked like that. And if you look
• 3:13
  Speaker 4: at the expected goals the ESPN gives you based on however,
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: they calculate that Argentina won that game three to one
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: basically based on expected goals, and they were winning the
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: game two to nothing based on expected goals when they
• 3:28
  Speaker 4: were actually losing on the scoreboard two to nothing. So Ever,
• 3:32
  Speaker 4: I'm sick of it. Everybody's just misled by what the
• 3:35
  Speaker 4: scoreboard is saying. No, look at what the actual game
• 3:39
  Speaker 4: play is telling you, like you have to do this
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: or you're gonna lose, Moe. Like this is how the
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: the book makers make money because the public is stupid
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: and they look at the score and they think that
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: that tells the story. No, not always, like really only
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: about half the time.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: So whatever.
• 3:56
  Speaker 4: And then it did feel good to get a win
• 3:58
  Speaker 4: in the WNBA for once, it was really easy with
• 4:01
  Speaker 4: Dallas outright win. That felt good. Another underdog outright win,
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: no question about that one. And then I'm gonna well,
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: I haven't looked at the box score to really make sure,
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: but once they took the lead, they never look back.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: So I'm gonna try to do the same thing today.
• 4:18
  Speaker 4: I will have an underdog WNBA play today, I will
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: have two baseball players. Although it's another baseball board that
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: I don't like, or maybe I just feel like I'm
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: not seeing the baseball board particularly well, I don't know,
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: I don't I don't know.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: What else to say about that.
• 4:32
  Speaker 4: I mean, I get some of my opinions right that
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: I don't feel that strongly about. That's always gonna happen
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: when I talk about every single game. I don't know
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: what else to say about any of this. Dirty sock.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: What's up, maca do? What's up? I mean, I'm winning
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: over the last two days.
• 4:47
  Speaker 4: Yesterday was a small win because of the I always
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: recommend putting moneyline money on the underdog. So with that
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: Dallas money line hit, it should have been a winning
• 4:57
  Speaker 4: It was a winning day if you do it that way.
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: And yet the day before that was a winning day
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: as well.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Want to know was the day before that?
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I mean, I'm three and two over the
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: last two days, where that's a win. Should have been
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: should have been better yesterday Man Argentina should.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Have been a win.
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: I shouldn't have added Cleveland on the fly. That's you know,
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: I don't know. Sometimes I make mistakes here, Argentina wasn't
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: a mistake though.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: That was.
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: That was a right side loser, if you want to
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: call it that, and I was just wit dude. It
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: would have been hilarious if Argentina still covered that because
• 5:36
  Speaker 4: they'd taken a three to two lead, like at.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: The ninety minute mark.
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: I don't know how much stoppage time there was, but
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: I'm like Argenta, I'm like, come on, man, Argentina scored
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: one more goal here? Oh my god, that would have
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: been an insane way to win that bet. But it
• 5:51
  Speaker 4: would have you know, getting lucky after you get unlucky.
• 5:56
  Speaker 4: I would have been like, okay, well that's like you
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: know that every the Universus balanced, you.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Know, I don't know, all right.
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: Baseball, by the way, there's no World Cup today. France
• 6:11
  Speaker 4: and Morocco is tomorrow.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: That is gonna be.
• 6:14
  Speaker 4: That's gonna be a weird one, which I'm gonna talk
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: about tomorrow. We have one afternoon baseball game, which that's
• 6:20
  Speaker 4: weird to me too, because Wednesday, a lot of times
• 6:23
  Speaker 4: Wednesdays getaway day. So these teams are ending series, so
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: they have to play in the afternoon, you know, to
• 6:28
  Speaker 4: allow for travel and whatever. But most of these games
• 6:31
  Speaker 4: are at night, and a lot of series are continuing tomorrow.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I believe that the All Star Break
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: is next week, so.
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: That's gonna give me a break, or I don't have
• 6:39
  Speaker 4: to handicap baseball. I might do like a quick video
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: where I talk about the home run derby or whatever,
• 6:46
  Speaker 4: or talk about it on the day that it's gonna happen,
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: because I'm still gonna do like w NBA in the morning,
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: but it's gonna be some really short shows during that
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: time span. But yeah, I think the All Star Break
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: starts after Sunday, probably all right, I'm not one hundred
• 7:02
  Speaker 4: percent sure about that. Toronto and San Francisco is the
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: only afternoon game here. These teams are gonna move on
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: and play different series tomorrow. Or actually I think Toronto
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: might be off tomorrow. I don't know who they played neck.
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: I looked, but it didn't really I didn't really care.
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: Each team has won a game in the series, so
• 7:21
  Speaker 4: San Francisco lost yesterday. Both teams in their win one
• 7:27
  Speaker 4: each game.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Pretty easily. Toronto used a lot of their bullpen yesterday
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: they used four or five guys whatever that was. San
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: Francisco used two.
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: I don't like San Francisco's bullpen. They're at twenty third
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: here arranged by WHIP. They have not been doing a
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: good job. Toronto is less rested, but they have the
• 7:44
  Speaker 4: better bullpen this year, number eleven. I don't know how
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: much the rest is going to negate that. Hitting wise,
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: I still don't buy the Giants offense. I know they
• 7:55
  Speaker 4: put they put together another good performance two days ago.
• 7:59
  Speaker 4: Yesterday they did not their ranked twelfth, but I still
• 8:02
  Speaker 4: think they're like a bottom ten offense. Toronto is in
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: the bottom ten at twenty seventh, which I think is legitimate.
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: Starting pitching matchup here looks like it should be a
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: pitching duel.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: The total is really low at.
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: Seven, but when you start digging into the matchup numbers,
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: maybe that's not gonna be the case. Don't cease his
• 8:19
  Speaker 4: pitching for the Blue Jays. He's debatably their best pitcher.
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: Two point seven to ninety Arra one point one.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: To eight WHIP.
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: He's been even better on the road, well slightly two
• 8:30
  Speaker 4: point seven to five Roady Ray really good in his
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: last outing against Seattle, nice bounce back, but that was
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: in a very pitcher friendly environment in Seattle. He was
• 8:39
  Speaker 4: not good against Texas the game before that, which is
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: kind of a red flag in a way. I mean,
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: his main issue is his walks. His walks are usually
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: too high. He did correct that in that game against Seattle,
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: but I'm not sure that that's gonna last. He's he's
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: got a very low hit rate. He's very unhittable, but
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: his walk rate is way too high. His strikeout rate
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: is also really high. That's the way that he pitches.
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: I mean, he's good enough that he overcomes this walk rate,
• 9:08
  Speaker 4: but still you want to see a walk rate be
• 9:10
  Speaker 4: lower than that. I don't know what to telling you, man,
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: but his walks worry me. The other thing about Cease
• 9:16
  Speaker 4: is he used to be on San Diego, so the
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: Giants have seen a decent amount of him. They have
• 9:20
  Speaker 4: eighty two at bats against him, and he has not
• 9:23
  Speaker 4: been great. Two fifty six average allowed, seven to fifty
• 9:26
  Speaker 4: one ohps. That's right around average, so he does not
• 9:31
  Speaker 4: dominate them or anything close to that. Twenty seven strikeouts
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: fourteen walks. That's also a bad ratio again, too many walks.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I fully trust him here in
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: this one.
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: Even though it is a pitcher friendly park, I still
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: don't buy San Francisco's offense. Logan Webb is going for
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: the Giants. I think he's their best pitcher. Three point
• 9:52
  Speaker 4: six sixty RA, one point one seven whip. He's good
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: at home three point three to three homey ira. He
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: basically turned his season around, although he was bad last
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: time out. I think I might give him a pass
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: for that though, because it was in course field, and
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: although he's not really I don't think he's a huge
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: fly ball pitcher.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: No, he's not.
• 10:10
  Speaker 4: He's a ground ball pitcher. But his numbers against Colorado
• 10:14
  Speaker 4: and his career have been bad, so I'm gonna kind
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: of give him a pass for that. He was pitching
• 10:19
  Speaker 4: really well for the entire month of June.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: I think it's more of a an.
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: Outlier performance there, so I expect him to start doing better.
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: He draws like a pretty weak offense here. However, he
• 10:32
  Speaker 4: doesn't do well against them. Fifty one at bats, three
• 10:34
  Speaker 4: thirty three average, eight forty nine ohps, seven to two
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: That's bad. So I do not want to back either
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: of these pitchers. Here Web has the worst of the
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: matchup numbers.
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: The money is backing the Giants though, seventy two percent
• 10:49
  Speaker 4: of the tickets on Toronto, sixty nine percent of the
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: cash on the Giants total is at seven, and the
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: money line is Toronto's a small favorite minus one eighteen. Yeah,
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: it looks like pros versus Joe's with the professional money
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: coming in on the Giants. I am not sure that
• 11:06
  Speaker 4: I would agree with that. I mean, you saw the
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: matchup numbers. It looks like they those favorite cease a
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: bit here. I still probably favor Toronto's bullpen as well,
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: so I would slightly lean Toronto here. But the totals
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: is where I was initially looking because I was like, oh,
• 11:23
  Speaker 4: this looks like an under the total seven. But when
• 11:26
  Speaker 4: you dig into those matchup numbers, there's no way I
• 11:28
  Speaker 4: would want to be on an under here. And you
• 11:31
  Speaker 4: know I don't like the Giants bullpen, so I was
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: thinking like first five, but I can't do that based
• 11:36
  Speaker 4: on these starting pitching numbers either. The matchup numbers seventy
• 11:40
  Speaker 4: five percent of the tickets, ninety two percent of the
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: cash on the over, although again when adds Baker's put
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: a low total out there, they're telling you they think
• 11:47
  Speaker 4: this is gonna be a low scoring game. There's no
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: wiggle room there though, Like seven is what it is.
• 11:53
  Speaker 4: It's right on that key number. I would probably slightly
• 11:57
  Speaker 4: lean over that number and leave the bulls in, I suppose,
• 12:01
  Speaker 4: just because the bullpens might help you get there. So
• 12:05
  Speaker 4: you know, first five, you're probably looking at about a
• 12:07
  Speaker 4: three and a half. But yeah, I think full game
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: over might actually hit in that game, although I would
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: not want to do it. A game that does not
• 12:16
  Speaker 4: to me look like an under would be Cubs Baltimore.
• 12:21
  Speaker 4: Baltimore has lost. Baltimore lost the first game of the series.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: That was yesterday. I gave out the Cubs as a
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: play on the show yesterday.
• 12:28
  Speaker 4: That was a win five to two. The Cubs have
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: the better of the two bullpens here. They use four
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: guys out of the bullpen yesterday Baltimore only us two.
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: Cubs bullpen has been a little bit worse recently. They're
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: down to twelfth right now. Their era went up above four.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: But I think they're still the better of the two
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: bullpens here. Baltimore's fourteenth.
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: Their ERA is a bit higher than that. Cubs have
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: the better offense. Their ranked fifth. Baltimore is somewhere in
• 12:55
  Speaker 4: the middle of the pack.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: I think where are they.
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: They're twentieth now, so Baltimore. Yeah, they off a little bit.
• 13:01
  Speaker 4: This is a not an eleait pitching matchup here. Colin
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: Ray is going for the Cubs. He's not great. Four
• 13:07
  Speaker 4: point seven four ERA, one point four to three whip.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: Is not good.
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: Six point six roadyra that's not good. He's not good
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: on the road. He pitched okay last time, but it
• 13:19
  Speaker 4: was at home against San Diego, one of the weakest offenses,
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: and he walked three guys. He's walked three guys in
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: four of his last five outings.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's not good. You can't do that.
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: And he's barely made it past five innings and all
• 13:32
  Speaker 4: of them. Cubs lost most of those games. The only
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: reason they really won the last game is because they
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: put twenty three runs on the board the last time
• 13:39
  Speaker 4: he pitched, So yeah, that.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: Was gonna get him a win.
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: He's got a high hit rate, his walk rate is
• 13:45
  Speaker 4: too high. His strikeout rate is pretty low. Not a
• 13:50
  Speaker 4: lot to like here against Baltimore, his numbers are actually
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: not horrible. In thirty five at bats, two fifty seven average,
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: seven to twenty one ohps allowed, twelve fourth strike got
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: walk ratio. I still don't really want to back ray here.
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: By the way, I forgot to mention Logan Web his
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: overall numbers, just you know, because I do the overview
• 14:09
  Speaker 4: and I'm autistic about everything. He's got a low hit rate,
• 14:12
  Speaker 4: a pretty low walk rate, and his strikeout rates is
• 14:14
  Speaker 4: not that high. Just to put that out there, Baltimore
• 14:18
  Speaker 4: is gonna be going with Gene Kreamer, who I don't
• 14:21
  Speaker 4: think is as good as his numbers look right now.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: This is a small sample size.
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: Granted, he's been pitching well when he's pitched this year,
• 14:28
  Speaker 4: but he got hurt and I think he's only made
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: one start since coming back. I think he's a mediocre pitcher,
• 14:34
  Speaker 4: like if you look at his overall career stats, mediocre,
• 14:38
  Speaker 4: Like he's like a four or something era pitcher throughout
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: his career one point two something whip. You know, I'm
• 14:44
  Speaker 4: not horrible, but not good or not great. But this
• 14:47
  Speaker 4: year he's been a little bit better. Three point one
• 14:49
  Speaker 4: eighty ra point eighty eight whip that is really good,
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: but again, really small sample size here. I think he's
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: only made three starts two point four to five home
• 14:58
  Speaker 4: ra He made two he starts in eight Bril and
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: then he got injured and he came back. In his
• 15:04
  Speaker 4: last start, he pitched against the White Sox. He did
• 15:07
  Speaker 4: well at home against the White Sox last time out,
• 15:10
  Speaker 4: so he looks like he's in good form right now.
• 15:12
  Speaker 4: He's got a high strikeout rate, low walk rate, low
• 15:16
  Speaker 4: hit rate as well against the Cubs.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: Do I really trust him? Not really?
• 15:22
  Speaker 4: And forty one at bats to sixty eight average, seven
• 15:25
  Speaker 4: to ninety oh ps, eight to two strike out walk ratio.
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: That's not great. I think this game goes over.
• 15:32
  Speaker 4: I mean the pitching matchup numbers aren't really that horrible
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: or anything, but I don't know, man. I mean, this
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: is just two pitchers that I think are mediocre at best.
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: The totals high, and it's probably high for a reason.
• 15:44
  Speaker 4: Baltimore is a little bit of a more hitter friendly ballpark.
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: The totals at ten here. Money is back in the over,
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: although it looks public too. Seventy eight percent of the tickets,
• 15:54
  Speaker 4: ninety three percent of the cash on it, money is
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: also backing Baltimore of the tickets on the Cubs ninety
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: four percent of the cash on Baltimore at minus one
• 16:03
  Speaker 4: thirty or so. I mean, Creamer is in good form
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: right now. He's better than Ray like just generally, I
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: think he is probably the better starter.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: So, you know, maybe Baltimore first five, I guess makes
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: some sense.
• 16:17
  Speaker 4: And Baltimore is in one of those bounce back spots
• 16:20
  Speaker 4: where when a team returns home and they don't do
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: well in that return home spot, a lot of times
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: they bounce back well in the next game. So I
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: wouldn't really disagree with Baltimore in the first five, and
• 16:32
  Speaker 4: I would not disagree with an over, but I don't
• 16:34
  Speaker 4: feel strongly about that. Garrett, what's up? Yeah, fuck off.
• 16:42
  Speaker 4: Nobody comes into this chat and dude, the Yankees have
• 16:45
  Speaker 4: lost like ten of eleven games.
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: Fuck off, dude, you're gone. I don't give a shit.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: Fuck off. All right, A's in Detroit.
• 17:00
  Speaker 4: Yeah, you don't come in in a fucking you know,
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: promote the Yankees, bash the Red Sox. Just fuck off
• 17:07
  Speaker 4: with that shit. Detroit beat the A's yesterday six to two.
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: That was the first game of the series. The A's
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: do not have a good bullpen. They used two guys
• 17:18
  Speaker 4: out of the bullpen.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: Yesterday Detroit used three.
• 17:21
  Speaker 4: Detroit's bullpen the RA is below four, which is pretty decent.
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: They're eighteenth right now as twenty fifth as are eighth
• 17:31
  Speaker 4: in offense, tied with Milwaukee.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: That's pretty good.
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: Detroit nineteenth not as good, although they're improving a little
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: bit here. A's are going with Jeffrey Springs in this game.
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: He's not that good. All those numbers do get skewed
• 17:46
  Speaker 4: because he pitches in the A's stadium and he's not
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: good there. Five point seven to ninety RA, one point
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: three to eight WHIP. He is better on the road,
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: like I said, four point three eight road era, So
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: obviously he does pitch better when he's not having pitching
• 18:00
  Speaker 4: that horrible as stadium. He's not really pitching well recently though.
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: You know, not much to say about this, but he's
• 18:08
  Speaker 4: a lot a lot of hits, a lot of walks here.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: Not good.
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: His ERA in June was ten. He's got a pretty
• 18:14
  Speaker 4: high hit rate here on the season. His walk rate
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: isn't too bad. His strikeout rate is not great. He's
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: allowed a ton of home runs, I mean some of
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: that is because of where he pitches at home. But
• 18:24
  Speaker 4: I think he has the highest home run rate in
• 18:26
  Speaker 4: all of baseball right now, which is not good. Springs
• 18:31
  Speaker 4: does have good numbers against Detroit though, in twenty two
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: at bats own ninety one average, three ninety eight ohps,
• 18:37
  Speaker 4: allowed eight one strike out walk ratio, So he does
• 18:41
  Speaker 4: do well against Detroit in a small sample size. They
• 18:44
  Speaker 4: only have six batters who have faced him. Troy Melton
• 18:47
  Speaker 4: is going for Detroit here. He's actually been pretty good.
• 18:50
  Speaker 4: Two point zero five y RRA point eight whip. He's
• 18:54
  Speaker 4: the guy that I thought was kind of more of
• 18:56
  Speaker 4: like just a long relief type of guy. I mean,
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: he's still young, he doesn't really strike guys out, but
• 19:02
  Speaker 4: he's been pitching pretty well. He's been worse at home though,
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: three point one to eight homeye ra. Still not bad though,
• 19:08
  Speaker 4: But he's got a really low hit rate, so he
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: doesn't put that many guys on base. As far as
• 19:13
  Speaker 4: like his hit ability is, walk rate isn't too bad.
• 19:16
  Speaker 4: His strike gout rate is low, so he doesn't really
• 19:19
  Speaker 4: fool guys. He doesn't strike them out, but he's not
• 19:21
  Speaker 4: putting a lot of guys on base.
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: Obviously, his whip is really low.
• 19:25
  Speaker 4: He's coming off a six and a third in he
• 19:27
  Speaker 4: shut out of the Yankees in New York. I mean
• 19:30
  Speaker 4: that's pretty impressive. He's been good. He's only allowed more
• 19:34
  Speaker 4: than more than that, yeah, more than twur in runs
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: once more than one aren run twice on the season
• 19:39
  Speaker 4: so far, though. He hasn't made that many starts. But yeah,
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: I mean he looks pretty good. The A's are a.
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: Combined over eight off him.
• 19:47
  Speaker 4: They only have seven hitters who have seen him, but
• 19:49
  Speaker 4: over eight with a strikeout, no walks, so nobody in
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: this lineup has reached base against him before. You got
• 19:55
  Speaker 4: to pay a price for Detroit though, man, I mean
• 19:57
  Speaker 4: Detroit might look like the right side here, and you know,
• 20:01
  Speaker 4: I probably agree with it, but this price is kind
• 20:03
  Speaker 4: of insane, at like minus one sixty. I don't think
• 20:06
  Speaker 4: you really lay a price like that with Detroit with
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: Melton on the mound, even if he is the better
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: pitcher here. They got seventy four percent of ticket seventy
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: six percent of the cash on Detroit. Yeah, I mean
• 20:18
  Speaker 4: it is kind of funny though, because Detroit, I think,
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: in a way, is actually undervalued, potentially because the record
• 20:25
  Speaker 4: doesn't look that good, But the oddsmakers are telling you
• 20:28
  Speaker 4: this is not that bad of a team. They have
• 20:30
  Speaker 4: the advantage in this matchup. They're good at home springs.
• 20:34
  Speaker 4: He does pitch better on the road. But I thought
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: the A's would get more public action here, like, oh
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: my god, the A's are a huge underdog here, and
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: the A's hit better than Detroit does, so I thought,
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: you know, and they have the better record, I think, so.
• 20:46
  Speaker 4: I thought the public money might be back in the
• 20:49
  Speaker 4: A's here.
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: They're not.
• 20:51
  Speaker 4: It's an interesting scenario, but I do think the price
• 20:53
  Speaker 4: is kind of too high on Detroit, even though I
• 20:55
  Speaker 4: do kind of lean that way. You'd probably have to
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: like make your own minus one run line or whatever.
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: On that game.
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: Money is also backing the over the totals at nine.
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: I don't really have a feel for the total in
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: that game. I mean, obviously I could see it happening,
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: but both pitchers have some things that are good about
• 21:15
  Speaker 4: that particular matchup for them, So yeah, I mean, actually yeah,
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: I think I probably I would more. I would lean
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: more towards the first five under in that game. Actually,
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: now that I am remembering what I just talked about,
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: both starting pitchers, I think have good matchup numbers and
• 21:30
  Speaker 4: Springs is in the good of his home road split there,
• 21:33
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I think first five under actually makes some sense,
• 21:36
  Speaker 4: although the odds makers are kind of telling you they
• 21:39
  Speaker 4: think it's gonna be high scoring by putting the lineup
• 21:41
  Speaker 4: at nine, so do what you want with that info.
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: But I think both starters might actually do okay there.
• 21:47
  Speaker 4: And you know you're probably looking at under like five
• 21:50
  Speaker 4: and a half in the first five, which you know me,
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: my first five unders tend to be games that are
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: projected to be lower scoring, but so you get lower
• 21:59
  Speaker 4: numbers on those. But yeah, I mean it's it's an
• 22:01
  Speaker 4: interessing game. I guess Atlanta at Pittsburgh, Paul's Skiings finally
• 22:06
  Speaker 4: got to win again and Atlanta, excuse me, Pittsburgh finally
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: won behind paul Skians and they made no doubt about
• 22:13
  Speaker 4: it by winning the game twelve to four. Waldrop is
• 22:16
  Speaker 4: way worse than I thought he would be in that game.
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh they unload offensively at home, though they're a really
• 22:22
  Speaker 4: good offense at home. Atlanta is a little bit better
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: offensively on the road, but Pittsburgh, yeah, their offense has
• 22:28
  Speaker 4: been good. Pittsburgh's bullpen is not that good. They only
• 22:32
  Speaker 4: used two guys out of the bullpen yesterday. I mean
• 22:34
  Speaker 4: they didn't really have to do anything. Atlanta used one,
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: so the bullpens did get saved. Atlanta is still the
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: number one bullpen, although they've fallen off a little bit,
• 22:42
  Speaker 4: and the Yankees actually have to have a better ERA now,
• 22:46
  Speaker 4: which I do not like. Pittsburgh is not very good.
• 22:50
  Speaker 4: They're twenty second out of the bullpen. Atlanta has fallen
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: off offensively. The other fourteenth right now, tied with Houston.
• 22:57
  Speaker 4: Both of those teams have fallen off offensively. Pittsburgh is
• 23:01
  Speaker 4: number two and they're I think also number two offensively.
• 23:05
  Speaker 4: They might be number one offensively at home, given the
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: struggles the Yankees have had recently. Atlanta's going with Grant
• 23:12
  Speaker 4: Holmes here. Holmes is not as good as his Zra looks.
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: Three point eight three ERA, one point three to five
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: whip is not that good. He's been better on the road,
• 23:22
  Speaker 4: although last year that wasn't the case, so I would
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: be a little bit leery of that number there. Three
• 23:28
  Speaker 4: point six to six roady Ra, but last year he
• 23:31
  Speaker 4: was significantly better at homes, So do what.
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: You want with that info.
• 23:35
  Speaker 4: I don't really put much weight into it. Though Holmes
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: was fine in his last start. It was against the Mets,
• 23:41
  Speaker 4: though at home. He has not been going deep into
• 23:44
  Speaker 4: his outings though, so I don't know how much I
• 23:46
  Speaker 4: would trust him. Yeah, I mean, that was the first
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: time he made a five innings in quite a while.
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: He's got a low hit rate, so I'll give him that.
• 23:54
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is too high, his strikeout rates not
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: really great, so.
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 23:58
  Speaker 4: He's He's a very meatore pitcher. This is not gonna
• 24:02
  Speaker 4: be an easy matchup for him. All though. Pittsburgh only
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: his five hitters who have seen him, and they're only
• 24:05
  Speaker 4: one for six off Enim. The only hit is a
• 24:08
  Speaker 4: single from Brandon Low two strikeouts, one walk to what
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: you want with that info, but it's a very small
• 24:14
  Speaker 4: sample size. I don't know that there's really much to
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: take away from that. Pittsburgh is going with Jared Jones,
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: who I think is better than his numbers make him look.
• 24:22
  Speaker 4: Right now, Jones is still I mean, he's a young,
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: talented pitcher that missed all of last year with an injury,
• 24:28
  Speaker 4: and he was solid in twenty twenty four and then
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: everybody forgot about him including me five point two EIGHTYRA,
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: one point three to eight whip. I know that's not great.
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: He hasn't been good at home at all, six point
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: nine to two home y RA, so that is not good.
• 24:43
  Speaker 4: But he looks like he's starting to pitch a little
• 24:45
  Speaker 4: bit better here as you know, as we progress here,
• 24:49
  Speaker 4: he's made whatever this is, six starts now. I think
• 24:52
  Speaker 4: he pitched pretty well against Philly last time out, but
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: he's still kind of limited. They only let him go
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: four innings. They could have left him in longer, but
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: I think they're kind of keeping him on about a
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: seventy five pitch count limit here right now.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: It looks like, so be aware.
• 25:06
  Speaker 4: Of that that he might only go about four innings
• 25:08
  Speaker 4: in this game. For that reason, the As only have
• 25:11
  Speaker 4: one hitter who has faced him, yeazz Is one for
• 25:14
  Speaker 4: four off and with a home run and one strikeout.
• 25:17
  Speaker 4: But again, I don't think there's much to really put
• 25:19
  Speaker 4: into that. This is a hard game to figure out.
• 25:22
  Speaker 4: We just we don't have a lot of pitching numbers
• 25:24
  Speaker 4: to look at here. The money is backing Atlanta on
• 25:27
  Speaker 4: for you know, like basically, I think because it's a
• 25:30
  Speaker 4: bounce back spot for them after they got blown out yesterday,
• 25:33
  Speaker 4: sixty percent tickets, eight and nine percent of the cash
• 25:35
  Speaker 4: on them. You know you're getting him as an underdog,
• 25:39
  Speaker 4: But to me, it almost looks too easy to play
• 25:42
  Speaker 4: the Braves as an underdog because you're still getting the
• 25:44
  Speaker 4: team with a really good record as an underdog.
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: I don't know, it still looks too easy.
• 25:49
  Speaker 4: I don't really love that. I don't know if i'd
• 25:52
  Speaker 4: want to back Pittsburgh either. I would say, if you
• 25:55
  Speaker 4: do back Pittsburgh, you should make it first five. Only
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: if you do it Lanta, I think you should go
• 25:58
  Speaker 4: full game because that's where the bullpen advantages. Pittsburgh minus
• 26:03
  Speaker 4: one twenty here is the price and the money is
• 26:06
  Speaker 4: somewhat backing the over, although the over is also public.
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: The totals at nine, so it's another pretty high total here.
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: It's juice to the over as well.
• 26:15
  Speaker 4: We'll see I don't really have a good read on
• 26:18
  Speaker 4: the game, so we'll see what happens in that game.
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: I don't really have a great opinion on the game either.
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: I mean, I guess possibly an over makes some sense
• 26:27
  Speaker 4: given you know that these pitchers could I guess potentially
• 26:31
  Speaker 4: struggle a little bit here, But you know based on
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: the unfamiliarity, they might also do well. So this is
• 26:36
  Speaker 4: one of the more difficult games to figure out in
• 26:38
  Speaker 4: my opinion. Brave Zoetaria, Well, they're your team, so you're
• 26:43
  Speaker 4: a little bit biased. I mean, would you rather be
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: rooting for the Red Sox right now? I know the
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: Red Sox are winning right now, but it's still not
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: It's not fun times over here the New York Yankees.
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: They lost again yesterday Tampa Bay.
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: The Yankees have lost whatever I sa I think they've
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: lost nine to their last eleven or something. It's the
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: next nine to eleven. They're at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: is very good at home this year, even though I
• 27:09
  Speaker 4: still think the Yankees are the better team here. But
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: Tampa's been playing well. They've been good at home. Yankees
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: have definitely been struggling recently. This game is on Amazon Prime,
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: which makes sense because it's a big American League matchup
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: and it's between debatably the best two.
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: Teams in the American League.
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: Yankees used three or league pitchers, yes to say their
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: bullpen's been doing well.
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay's bullpen is not as good. They used four.
• 27:34
  Speaker 4: Yankees are number two in bullpen right now. They are
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: the number one bullpen e Ray right now.
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: They're good.
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: I don't know if they're exactly that good, but they're good.
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay's ranked seventh, but I think they're worse than that.
• 27:48
  Speaker 4: Mid mid four's ERA is not exactly great, so I
• 27:51
  Speaker 4: think they're a mediocre bullpen.
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: Yankees offense, like I said, they've fallen off a bit.
• 27:55
  Speaker 4: They're eighth tied with the Brewers and the A's Tampa
• 27:59
  Speaker 4: Bay is twelfth tied with the Giants, although I do
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: think the Yankees are the better offense here.
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: Yankees are going with Garrett Cole, you know.
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: I mean, obviously he's not gonna be what he once
• 28:10
  Speaker 4: was when he was in the peak of his career,
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: but he is.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: He's doing all right.
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: I mean, he's got a four point zero one ERA
• 28:16
  Speaker 4: one point two whip. He's not like a dominant pitcher anymore, really,
• 28:19
  Speaker 4: but he's I think he's still good. Hasn't been as
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: good on the road. Four point eighty seven. Roady ra
• 28:26
  Speaker 4: pitched pretty well last time out against Minnesota. Only went
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: five innings, though, so he hasn't really been going that
• 28:32
  Speaker 4: deep into most of his outings, and he struggled in
• 28:34
  Speaker 4: his previous two outings at Detroit and at Boston, so
• 28:38
  Speaker 4: those were some road starts there. His hit rate is
• 28:41
  Speaker 4: like pretty close to one per inning, which is pretty average.
• 28:44
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is reasonably low, strikeout rate is pretty
• 28:48
  Speaker 4: reasonable basically at one per inning.
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: Again, he's not gonna be what he once was anymore.
• 28:53
  Speaker 4: Numbers against Tampa pretty good in one hundred and fourteen
• 28:55
  Speaker 4: at bats two thirty seven average, six forty oh ps,
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: twenty four strikeouts, ten walks, though that ratio is not
• 29:03
  Speaker 4: very good there, But overall, I think he does have
• 29:05
  Speaker 4: the upper hand against Tampa Bay's hitters here.
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: He's gonna be opposed.
• 29:10
  Speaker 4: By Shane McClanahan, who is a younger pitcher who is
• 29:14
  Speaker 4: doing well. I mean, he's been good again. He's good
• 29:17
  Speaker 4: when he's healthy. That's what I'll say about him. Like
• 29:19
  Speaker 4: if you look at his career numbers, they're good. He
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: just can't stay healthy. But he does look pretty good
• 29:24
  Speaker 4: right now. Three point zero five ERA, one point one
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: seven whip. He's been good at home two point two
• 29:29
  Speaker 4: to one home the RA, so he's got the home
• 29:32
  Speaker 4: road splits in his favor here. He was good in
• 29:34
  Speaker 4: his last couple of starts. They're both against Kansas City,
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: though one of them, the fielding just really screwed him
• 29:41
  Speaker 4: at Kansas City. We know they're not great, although they
• 29:44
  Speaker 4: do hit better at home, and he shut them out
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: in Kansas City and finally bounced back with a win
• 29:50
  Speaker 4: because Tampa Bay lost four straight starts of his and
• 29:54
  Speaker 4: he did have a couple of starts in there that
• 29:55
  Speaker 4: weren't that good.
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: Those were both on the road. By the way, his
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: overall numbers.
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: Low, hit rate, his walk rate is reasonable, not too bad,
• 30:03
  Speaker 4: strike out RAI is pretty decent. So yeah, I mean,
• 30:06
  Speaker 4: he's a decent pitcher. I would say better than decent.
• 30:09
  Speaker 4: Numbers against the Yankees, though, are a little bit on
• 30:12
  Speaker 4: the bad side for him to seventy eight average seven
• 30:14
  Speaker 4: to sixty oh ps, So the Yankees have the upper
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: hand against him slightly, but not by much. And it's
• 30:20
  Speaker 4: only eighteen at bats. They have six hitters to have
• 30:22
  Speaker 4: faced him for strikeouts.
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: One walk. So what do we do with this guy?
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man, I mean, this game kind of
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: reads as an under to me, like, I think you
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: have two pretty decent starting pitchers here. The totals low,
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: and again I usually say it's low for a reason.
• 30:38
  Speaker 4: You know, the totals at seven and a half in
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: this one makes sense. I mean, I think you have
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: two bullpens that maybe you could back and take the
• 30:45
  Speaker 4: under seven and a half here, A lot of books
• 30:48
  Speaker 4: have a seven out there right now. Money is backing
• 30:50
  Speaker 4: the over though seventy one percent of tickets eighty eight
• 30:53
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash.
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: On the over. I lean under, and the money is backing.
• 30:57
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay here for what that's worth, sixty percent take
• 31:00
  Speaker 4: us ninety one percent of the cash on them and
• 31:02
  Speaker 4: minus one twenty. I mean, I made some arguments for it,
• 31:05
  Speaker 4: just that Tampa's better at home. McClanahan is in the
• 31:08
  Speaker 4: better of his home roads with mc coole, has the
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: better matchup numbers. So and again, like I said in
• 31:14
  Speaker 4: the first game, in this series, you're not gonna be
• 31:17
  Speaker 4: getting the Yankees as an underdog too many times, you
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: know what I mean, I think they might be. I
• 31:22
  Speaker 4: think they're still the better team over Tampa Bang. You know,
• 31:25
  Speaker 4: maybe you know, matchup dependent. Of course, of course I
• 31:28
  Speaker 4: gave up the play in the first game because I
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: liked the spot, and you're getting to back Schlittler as
• 31:33
  Speaker 4: basically an underdog. Cole is not as good as Schlitzler currently,
• 31:38
  Speaker 4: but you know, I mean, you're not gonna get Cole
• 31:40
  Speaker 4: and the Yankees as an underdog like this too many times.
• 31:43
  Speaker 4: So I don't know, man, I think I might slightly
• 31:46
  Speaker 4: lean Yankees here, but I think under might make a
• 31:49
  Speaker 4: little bit more sense. Gerald, what's up? Thanks for hanging
• 31:53
  Speaker 4: out all right. Next game is Seattle in Miami. I
• 32:01
  Speaker 4: still haven't gotten to any of my plays yet, but yeah,
• 32:04
  Speaker 4: you know, I was treading lightly again with this. I
• 32:06
  Speaker 4: don't like this board very much. Miami they're hot. I mean,
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: they've won four more games in a row. They won
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: yesterday six to five, which was an extra inning game.
• 32:14
  Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure to be aware of that that the
• 32:16
  Speaker 4: bullpens got a little bit more usage yesterday. Miami used
• 32:20
  Speaker 4: five relief pitchers. Seattle also did, so I like both
• 32:24
  Speaker 4: these bullpens. Miami's ranked third, although I don't think they're
• 32:27
  Speaker 4: really that good, but they're pretty good. Seattle is better
• 32:30
  Speaker 4: than where they're ranked at fifteenth. They got a mid
• 32:33
  Speaker 4: threes e RA. I think Seattle's a decent bullpen. I
• 32:36
  Speaker 4: would say a good bullpen. So that's what we got
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: going on here. They're good bullpens, but the usage is
• 32:42
  Speaker 4: a little high for me to really want to back
• 32:44
  Speaker 4: the bullpens here. Miami is ranked sixth in offense, which
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: is kind of insane. I don't really think they're that good,
• 32:51
  Speaker 4: but they're having a pretty good season here. Seattle is
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: way down somewhere. They're twenty fourth, tied with Cincinnati. That's
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: not great, although I don't think there's that much of
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: a gap between these two offenses. Really, this is a
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: more pitcher friendly park here. Seattle's going with George Kirby,
• 33:08
  Speaker 4: who is. He's got some weird numbers here. Man, he's
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: got a three point eight Oney ras whip isn't really
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: that good at one point three to two. He's actually
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: been too hittable. That's been his problem. His problem is
• 33:19
  Speaker 4: not walks, his problem is hit ability. He's better on
• 33:23
  Speaker 4: the road, which is also weird because Seattle's a pitcher
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: friendly ballpark.
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: Three point one six.
• 33:28
  Speaker 4: Roady Ray pitch well last time out at home against Anaheim.
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: He was generally pretty good over the last month. His
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: command numbers are really good, but he gave up a
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: ton of hits, so I don't know what's going on
• 33:40
  Speaker 4: with him. Man he's been Again, that's been his main
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: issue is he's too hittable. He's got a low walk rate.
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: Strikeout rate is okay, he's not really a strikeout guy.
• 33:49
  Speaker 4: But yeah, he's been too hittable. So again, when you're
• 33:52
  Speaker 4: not fooling guys via the strikeout, you're throwing some pitches
• 33:55
  Speaker 4: over the plate, you're gonna get hit.
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: And you know that is a little bit of a concern.
• 33:59
  Speaker 4: With his whip kind of indicates that his era should
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: probably be. Like in the fours against Miami, we have
• 34:05
  Speaker 4: a small sample. Three hitters have faced him. They have
• 34:08
  Speaker 4: ten at bats against him, three hundred average though eight
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: hundred ops two, zero strike out walk ratio.
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: Uh so they've been able to hit him.
• 34:16
  Speaker 4: Okay, the guys that have faced him, but a lot
• 34:18
  Speaker 4: of Miami's lineup is unfamiliar with him.
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: So you have to kind of figure out which way
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: is this gonna go.
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: Like the hitters that have seen him before, are they
• 34:25
  Speaker 4: still gonna hit Is he gonna be able to pitch
• 34:28
  Speaker 4: well against the hitters that.
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: Haven't seen him? I don't know.
• 34:30
  Speaker 4: He does do better on the road, though, Miami's going
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: with Tyler Phillips, who you know, I still consider this
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: to be like sort of a bullpen game for them,
• 34:39
  Speaker 4: but they've basically been using him as a full time
• 34:41
  Speaker 4: starter at this point. He's got a three point five
• 34:44
  Speaker 4: two ERA, but his whip is not good either, one
• 34:46
  Speaker 4: point three eight, so pretty similar in that way to Kirby.
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: He's way better at home one point one to six
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: home the IRA, so Phillips is in the way better
• 34:56
  Speaker 4: of his home roads spits. He was bad last time out,
• 34:59
  Speaker 4: but it was the the A's stadium, so maybe you
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: give him a pass for that because that stadium is
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: very hit or friendly. He was pitching fairly well prior
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: to that, except he had one other bad outing in
• 35:10
  Speaker 4: there at Philadelphia. But at home he's been a lot
• 35:14
  Speaker 4: better than that. He's got a reasonably low hit rate.
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is way too high, though he walks
• 35:19
  Speaker 4: almost one guy every two winnings. He can't do that,
• 35:22
  Speaker 4: and his strikeout rate is not very high. So do
• 35:25
  Speaker 4: what you want with that info. Phillips is not really
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: He's not a great pitcher, dude. I mean, he's like
• 35:30
  Speaker 4: a serviceable pitcher in there. We also don't know how
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: deep he's gonna go here, and Seattle has hit him.
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: I know only eleven at bats, though they have seven
• 35:38
  Speaker 4: guys who have faced him one strikeout, three walks, three
• 35:41
  Speaker 4: sixty four average fourteen oh nine ops. So he does
• 35:45
  Speaker 4: not have good numbers, but in a small sample against Seattle.
• 35:49
  Speaker 4: I don't know what to do with this game. It's
• 35:52
  Speaker 4: another one of those games it's hard for me to
• 35:53
  Speaker 4: figure out. Looks like pros versus Joe's, with the Joe's
• 35:57
  Speaker 4: on Seattle with sixty five percent of the tickets six
• 36:00
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on Miami, at least for now.
• 36:03
  Speaker 4: Of course, again, these numbers could shift around throughout the day,
• 36:07
  Speaker 4: but Miami looks like they're getting the money at home here.
• 36:11
  Speaker 4: Seattle is a favorite at minus one thirty something. I mean,
• 36:14
  Speaker 4: I think that makes sense because I think they are
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: the better team and they do have the at least
• 36:18
  Speaker 4: they have the actual starter on the mound.
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: I kind of lean Seattle, man.
• 36:23
  Speaker 4: I mean, I think I prefer Kirby over a Miami
• 36:26
  Speaker 4: pseudo bullpen game. Although you know, Phillips is in the
• 36:29
  Speaker 4: better of his home road splits. The money is back
• 36:32
  Speaker 4: in the under here. For what that's worth. The totals
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: at eight and a half. If I was gonna go
• 36:36
  Speaker 4: under I might limit it to first five just because
• 36:38
  Speaker 4: the bullpens saw a ton of usage yesterday. I could
• 36:42
  Speaker 4: see the argument for the first five under with both
• 36:45
  Speaker 4: pitchers and the better of their home road splits, and
• 36:48
  Speaker 4: they're both sort of unfamiliar to the opposing bats. But
• 36:52
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man, I don't really love Phillips numbers
• 36:54
  Speaker 4: in what we've seen so far. I don't really love
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: Kirby's either, to be honest, So I don't know. Yeah,
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: that's a tough game for me to figure out. I
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: don't really have a great opinion on it. Mister Pinseley,
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: what's up? Thanks for hanging out all right? Mister Pinsley's
• 37:09
  Speaker 4: probably the only Yankee fan that I haven't banned from
• 37:12
  Speaker 4: the chat.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: So far because he doesn't really give me shit. So
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: there you go.
• 37:18
  Speaker 4: Don't draw all ban you Houston at Washington. You know,
• 37:23
  Speaker 4: I had this peg as an over series. I should
• 37:25
  Speaker 4: have given out the over in the first game and
• 37:27
  Speaker 4: that was just an easy over. Yesterday landed nine, so
• 37:31
  Speaker 4: I think I might have landed right on the total.
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: I guess I don't remember what the total was.
• 37:35
  Speaker 4: Each team has won one game in the series, so
• 37:38
  Speaker 4: do with that info what you want oh. By the way,
• 37:41
  Speaker 4: I think I forgot to mention that Miami had won
• 37:44
  Speaker 4: the first game of their series and Yankees Tampa Bay
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: have split the two games in their series so far.
• 37:49
  Speaker 4: Yankees and Tampa Bay continue their series tomorrow. A lot
• 37:53
  Speaker 4: of these teams that are playing today continue tomorrow, So
• 37:56
  Speaker 4: just throwing that out there.
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: He was in Washington.
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: They finished their series here today, though, I believe and
• 38:03
  Speaker 4: this will be the rubber match of their series. Washington
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: used four relief pitchers yesterday. Houston used a lot they
• 38:10
  Speaker 4: use what is this six, so I would not back
• 38:13
  Speaker 4: the bullpens in this one. Washington's bullpen is also awful
• 38:17
  Speaker 4: at twenty six. Yeah, they're not good. Houston's has been better,
• 38:22
  Speaker 4: but they're seventeenth. They're pretty mediocre, but they don't look
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: like they're in good shape here coming into this game.
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: Washington is a good offense.
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: They're number three. Houston is number fourteen. Like I said,
• 38:33
  Speaker 4: tied with Atlanta. This starting pitching matchup, though I would
• 38:37
  Speaker 4: not really want to try to take this thing over.
• 38:39
  Speaker 4: Spencer Arraghetty is pitching for Houston. I don't think he's
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: quite as good as his numbers might look. He's really really.
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: Wild, but he does have some talent.
• 38:48
  Speaker 4: He's got a three point eight one ERA one point
• 38:51
  Speaker 4: two to three whip that's not too bad. But you
• 38:53
  Speaker 4: remember his numbers looked really good for a while. He's
• 38:56
  Speaker 4: definitely regressed a little bit, which I thought would happen.
• 38:59
  Speaker 4: He's not as good on the road four point three
• 39:01
  Speaker 4: to two roadyra He was good in his last start
• 39:03
  Speaker 4: against Tampa Bay, so he bounced back after he had
• 39:06
  Speaker 4: some rough outings towards the end of June. In fact,
• 39:09
  Speaker 4: his entire month of June was actually pretty bad, but
• 39:12
  Speaker 4: he had a nice start against Tampa Bay. So maybe
• 39:14
  Speaker 4: that's a decent sign that he's coming back into some
• 39:17
  Speaker 4: sort of form here. But Washington's gonna be a difficult
• 39:20
  Speaker 4: opponent to face.
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: He does have a low hit rate. Like I said,
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: his walk rate is too high. That's his major issue.
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: His strikeout rate is pretty good, more than one per inning,
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: so he fools hitters, doesn't allow a lot of hits,
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: but he's wild. Like I said, Washington, only his one
• 39:36
  Speaker 4: hitter was faced him. Curtis Mead is one for three
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: with a single and a strikeout and no walks.
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: So that's it.
• 39:42
  Speaker 4: That's all they have against him, So Ragedtty does have
• 39:45
  Speaker 4: an unfamiliarity advantage here. Like I say, when these young
• 39:48
  Speaker 4: talented pitchers go up against these opposing offenses that haven't
• 39:52
  Speaker 4: seen them, the pitcher has a little bit of an
• 39:54
  Speaker 4: extra advantage.
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: So maybe Aragedty pitch as well. Here.
• 39:57
  Speaker 4: Foster Griffin is pitching for w Washington. He's been pretty
• 40:02
  Speaker 4: trustworthy this year man again, surprising coming from out of nowhere.
• 40:06
  Speaker 4: He's been really good. Two point eight to seventy r
• 40:09
  Speaker 4: one point zero four whip. Who would have expected Foster
• 40:12
  Speaker 4: Griffin would be the ace of the National's rotation. He's
• 40:16
  Speaker 4: been a little bit worse at home two point nine
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: to eight homie RA, which is still good.
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: He's pitching well.
• 40:22
  Speaker 4: He give up one or zero earned runs and all
• 40:24
  Speaker 4: of his starts in June and to start this month
• 40:27
  Speaker 4: on July third against Pittsburgh. He's been completely dealing it
• 40:31
  Speaker 4: man like really low walk rate recently, low hit rate,
• 40:34
  Speaker 4: high strikeout rate, really good numbers here, basically the same
• 40:38
  Speaker 4: over the course of the season. Low hit rate, low
• 40:40
  Speaker 4: walk rate, reasonably high strikeout rate. His home run rate
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: has been slightly high. It looks maybe worse than it
• 40:47
  Speaker 4: is because he has thrown a lot of innings, so
• 40:49
  Speaker 4: that's maybe not too bad, but he is a little
• 40:52
  Speaker 4: bit home run conducive. He has never been seen before
• 40:55
  Speaker 4: by Houston, so he has an unfamiliarity edge year. So
• 40:58
  Speaker 4: Houston has never faced him before. That should be an
• 41:01
  Speaker 4: edge to him. Might be an argument for a first
• 41:05
  Speaker 4: five under man, although again the odds makers have lined
• 41:08
  Speaker 4: this as a high total nine and a half and
• 41:10
  Speaker 4: it's bordering on ten, so the odds makers think this
• 41:14
  Speaker 4: is gonna be a high scoring games.
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: That worries me a little bit.
• 41:17
  Speaker 4: Money is also on the over sixty three percent of tickets,
• 41:20
  Speaker 4: ninety two percent of the cash on the over.
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: I kind of like the first five under man.
• 41:25
  Speaker 4: I mean, I think you're getting two You're getting two
• 41:28
  Speaker 4: pictures that are the best, like some of the better
• 41:30
  Speaker 4: pictures in these rotations. They're unfamiliar to the opposing offenses,
• 41:34
  Speaker 4: and you're gonna get a high total here, probably like
• 41:36
  Speaker 4: five and a half in the firse five. So I
• 41:40
  Speaker 4: think going under that makes some sense here. But you
• 41:43
  Speaker 4: know me, I don't love going under high totals.
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 41:46
  Speaker 4: It's just I don't know my intuition, Like I don't
• 41:49
  Speaker 4: know the it being a high total gives me, you know,
• 41:52
  Speaker 4: it's like almost a red flag to me, like, no,
• 41:55
  Speaker 4: the odds makers are telling you this is gonna be
• 41:56
  Speaker 4: high scoring.
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: The money is also backing Washington, which I wouldn't really disagree.
• 42:01
  Speaker 4: Sixty two percent of tickets, eighty eight percent of the
• 42:03
  Speaker 4: cash on them at about minus one thirty something, I'd
• 42:06
  Speaker 4: probably agree with that. Griffin is the more proven of
• 42:09
  Speaker 4: these two pictures right now this year. Who would have
• 42:12
  Speaker 4: thought I'd be saying that. But I think if I
• 42:15
  Speaker 4: was gonna do that, i'd take it first five, and
• 42:17
  Speaker 4: you probably have to pay more in the first five
• 42:20
  Speaker 4: because everybody knows how bad Washington's bullpen is. So I
• 42:24
  Speaker 4: think you'd lay minus a half run probably in the
• 42:28
  Speaker 4: first five. I think that's what you could do for
• 42:31
  Speaker 4: Washington there, if you're gonna play Washington, I think first
• 42:35
  Speaker 4: five under makes a little bit more sense. SOB, what's
• 42:40
  Speaker 4: up yet? No?
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: Do not bet, dude, what are you doing? No? Do
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: not bet.
• 42:45
  Speaker 4: Do not bet Connecticut. You're insane if you bet Connecticut there.
• 42:49
  Speaker 4: Obviously I'm gonna talk about that. I like Minnesota to
• 42:52
  Speaker 4: cover that one. I might be a little bit I'm
• 42:55
  Speaker 4: gonna talk about that game, so I won't spoil it completely.
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 43:02
  Speaker 4: The other one is is my w n B a play,
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: I'll tell you that right now. So I agree with
• 43:06
  Speaker 4: that one strongly. But I also am I have a
• 43:09
  Speaker 4: strong lean to Minnesota there in the zig zag spot there. Yeah,
• 43:14
  Speaker 4: I mean, I'll talk about it when I get to it.
• 43:17
  Speaker 4: Do not bet Connecticut, and you're not even getting the
• 43:19
  Speaker 4: key number seven.
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: Do not do it. They're all they're also a public underdog.
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure. Yeah, do not do that. Next game
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: up will be a play for me.
• 43:30
  Speaker 4: I'm going with a play where we don't even know
• 43:32
  Speaker 4: who the starting pitcher is gonna be, where we kind
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: of do I guess Philadelphia is going with a bullpend game.
• 43:37
  Speaker 4: But here's what I'm gonna tell you to do here. Well,
• 43:41
  Speaker 4: let me bring it up on the screen here. My
• 43:48
  Speaker 4: play here is gonna be Cincinnati in the first five.
• 43:50
  Speaker 4: But obviously playing Cincinnati, the odds makers know that their
• 43:54
  Speaker 4: bullpen is ass and their big advantage they have is
• 43:57
  Speaker 4: the starting pitching here. And of course I'm backing Chase
• 44:00
  Speaker 4: Burns again. You know me, But there's a reason why
• 44:03
  Speaker 4: I keep doing it. He keeps winning. We have to
• 44:07
  Speaker 4: go with the spread here.
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 44:08
  Speaker 4: They need to be winning, so if it's tied at
• 44:10
  Speaker 4: the end of five, we're gonna lose this bet. But
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: I think they could do this. We're gonna lay the
• 44:14
  Speaker 4: half run. That's how we get this price down to
• 44:16
  Speaker 4: minus one ten. Otherwise you gotta lay like close to
• 44:19
  Speaker 4: minus one sixty on the money line, which is too.
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: Pricey for me.
• 44:23
  Speaker 4: So I'm gonna do this instead to get the price down. Here,
• 44:28
  Speaker 4: we're gonna fade Philadelphia. Philadelphia is going with what I'm
• 44:31
  Speaker 4: pretty sure is a bullpen game. I looked five games
• 44:33
  Speaker 4: ago Philadelphia and went with a bullpen game, So I'm
• 44:36
  Speaker 4: pretty sure that's what they're doing. And you know me,
• 44:37
  Speaker 4: I mean, I know I underrate bullpen games, Like sometimes
• 44:41
  Speaker 4: they could be good and keep hitters, you know, like
• 44:45
  Speaker 4: keep hitters off balance and whatever, but I just don't
• 44:47
  Speaker 4: like it.
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: I don't think so man.
• 44:48
  Speaker 4: I think Philadelphia they're really kind of forced into having
• 44:52
  Speaker 4: to have a bullpen game in the rotation because they
• 44:54
  Speaker 4: have guys that are injured in the rotation.
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: We're gonna back Burns here.
• 44:59
  Speaker 4: I think he the preferable side here. We're gonna exclude
• 45:02
  Speaker 4: the bullpens because obviously. Like I said, Cincinnati's bullpen is
• 45:06
  Speaker 4: very bad, so I don't want to include them. They
• 45:08
  Speaker 4: also used four guys yesterday, so I'm not interested in
• 45:11
  Speaker 4: having anything to do with them.
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia used three.
• 45:14
  Speaker 4: Philadelphia's bullpen has been worse recently though they're at nineteenth,
• 45:18
  Speaker 4: but the Reds are still really bad at twenty eighth,
• 45:21
  Speaker 4: so there's no way I can get behind that bullpen.
• 45:24
  Speaker 4: Philadelphia hasn't been that good offensively at twenty first Cincinnati
• 45:28
  Speaker 4: twenty fourth. Philadelphia is not as good on the road
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: by the way it hitting, even though this is a
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: hitter friendly park, I think they could struggle here. Philadelphia
• 45:36
  Speaker 4: has not decided on a starter. So the way that
• 45:39
  Speaker 4: you have to do this right now, and it's also
• 45:41
  Speaker 4: the way I'm recommending to do this, is you're gonna
• 45:44
  Speaker 4: select Burns must start. Obviously, we need Burns to start
• 45:48
  Speaker 4: here for this game to be what we want it
• 45:49
  Speaker 4: to be. And don't select a starter on the Philadelphia side,
• 45:53
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean. You can't right now anyway
• 45:56
  Speaker 4: because they don't have a starter listed. So you gotta
• 45:59
  Speaker 4: play this burn must start. That's the way you play this.
• 46:02
  Speaker 4: Ignore what Philadelphia is gonna do. Because I don't think
• 46:04
  Speaker 4: they're gonna bring in any starter that's really gonna intimidate us,
• 46:08
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean. It's not gonna be Christopher
• 46:10
  Speaker 4: Sanchez or Zach Wheeler because they pitched the last two.
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: Games for them.
• 46:14
  Speaker 4: So I'm fine, I'm honestly, unless it's Lozardo, I'm fine
• 46:18
  Speaker 4: with it being anybody else, you know what I mean.
• 46:21
  Speaker 4: We know it's not gonna be Wheeler or Sanchez. Even
• 46:24
  Speaker 4: if it's Nola, Okay, fine, bring it on. Nola isn't
• 46:27
  Speaker 4: good whatever, But I think it's gonna be a bullpen
• 46:29
  Speaker 4: game for Philly.
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: We're gonna back Chase Burns.
• 46:32
  Speaker 4: Burns is clearly the Red's best starter two point four
• 46:36
  Speaker 4: e RA one point h eight whip and even with
• 46:38
  Speaker 4: the Reds bad team backing him, he's ten to one.
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Burns is solid.
• 46:43
  Speaker 4: H He's been even better at home one point nine
• 46:46
  Speaker 4: to nine, Homie Ra, that's good.
• 46:48
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 46:49
  Speaker 4: He was good last time out against Milwaukee, had a
• 46:51
  Speaker 4: little bit of a blip against Pittsburgh the game before that,
• 46:54
  Speaker 4: but he still had ten strikeouts and no walks in
• 46:56
  Speaker 4: that one, so you know, it wasn't exactly like he
• 46:59
  Speaker 4: was off his game in that game. Pittsburgh also hits
• 47:02
  Speaker 4: well at home, so whatever. He was pretty good against
• 47:05
  Speaker 4: the Yankees the start before that, so I mean Burns
• 47:07
  Speaker 4: is doing well against good offenses, and then again on
• 47:10
  Speaker 4: the road against Milwaukee last time out.
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: We get it. Burns is good.
• 47:14
  Speaker 4: He's got a low hit rate, his walk rate is
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: maybe slightly high. Strike out rate is also really high. Overall,
• 47:21
  Speaker 4: good numbers here against Philadelphia, pretty dominant stuff here. Thirty
• 47:26
  Speaker 4: at bats, twelve strikeouts, three walks, one thirty three average
• 47:30
  Speaker 4: allowed four to seventy nine ops. So he's pretty much
• 47:33
  Speaker 4: shredded Philadelphia. And he did pitch against them back in
• 47:37
  Speaker 4: May in Philadelphia where Philadelphia hits better, and he did
• 47:40
  Speaker 4: not have any issues really. He went six innings, allowed
• 47:43
  Speaker 4: one run which was a solo home run I think
• 47:45
  Speaker 4: from Trade's earner, only three hits, allowed nine strikeouts, no walks,
• 47:49
  Speaker 4: So yeah, he was really good in that game. Basically
• 47:53
  Speaker 4: made one mistake that wound up costing him only one run.
• 47:56
  Speaker 4: Picked up a win in that game, obviously, Well maybe
• 47:59
  Speaker 4: not obviously, but yes, he did, all right, So yes
• 48:03
  Speaker 4: we're gonna do that. And we don't know who's pitching
• 48:05
  Speaker 4: for Philly, but whatever. The money seems to be pretty
• 48:08
  Speaker 4: heavily in agreement with me on this. Fifty one percent
• 48:11
  Speaker 4: of the tickets, ninety percent of the cash on Cincinnati.
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: There a minus won forty or so for the full game.
• 48:16
  Speaker 4: But again, we have to pay a little bit more
• 48:18
  Speaker 4: of a price to do it in the first five
• 48:20
  Speaker 4: because that's where the big advantage is. But that is
• 48:22
  Speaker 4: what I'm gonna do. They need to be winning at
• 48:24
  Speaker 4: the end of five. Let's get it, uh, Cincinnati first five?
• 48:29
  Speaker 4: All right, next game up. I almost put this on
• 48:33
  Speaker 4: my card. Kansas City and the Mets. This is I mean,
• 48:36
  Speaker 4: yesterday's game was absolute insanity.
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: Uh, if you.
• 48:41
  Speaker 4: Played this game yesterday, my recommendation on the game yesterday
• 48:44
  Speaker 4: was to take Kansas City in the.
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: First five, and if you did that, it.
• 48:47
  Speaker 4: Would have been a push, unless if you took them
• 48:51
  Speaker 4: run line, you would have won on that because it
• 48:53
  Speaker 4: was nine to nine at the end of five innings.
• 48:56
  Speaker 4: Kansas City scored five runs in the fifth inning though,
• 48:59
  Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure to tie it at nine. So if
• 49:02
  Speaker 4: you did that, yeah, you got lucky. Okay, Lugo was
• 49:05
  Speaker 4: bad in the game, but Kansas City wanted to winning
• 49:07
  Speaker 4: the game. Unbelievable sixteen to twelve. This Mets bullpen is, Yeah,
• 49:13
  Speaker 4: they're kind of falling apart here. Maybe expected because they
• 49:19
  Speaker 4: picked up both Yankees relief pitchers who were awful for
• 49:22
  Speaker 4: the Yankees last year, Williams and Weaver, and yeah, maybe
• 49:27
  Speaker 4: they're not doing so well anymore. Although neither of them
• 49:29
  Speaker 4: pitched yesterday, the Mets used basically everybody else.
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: They used six relief pitchers.
• 49:35
  Speaker 4: I would not want to back this Mets bullpen right
• 49:37
  Speaker 4: now in this game. Kansas City, I would not.
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: Back them either.
• 49:40
  Speaker 4: Obviously, they used five relief pitchers yesterday, but they're the
• 49:43
  Speaker 4: bottom rank bullpen in baseball. You could argue Minnesota's worse,
• 49:47
  Speaker 4: their eras a little bit worse, but this Kansas.
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: City bullpen is very bad.
• 49:51
  Speaker 4: The Mets have fallen to eighth, their eras definitely creeping
• 49:55
  Speaker 4: up close to four, so they're an okay bullpen, but
• 49:58
  Speaker 4: they've really not been good recently. Mets offense moved up
• 50:02
  Speaker 4: to twenty eighth. Congratulations Mets. They're now ahead of Cleveland
• 50:06
  Speaker 4: and San Diego. And then who are we talking, Oh,
• 50:10
  Speaker 4: Kansas City. They're not really that good offensively either, although
• 50:13
  Speaker 4: they're up to sixteenth. Kansas City does hit better at home, though,
• 50:18
  Speaker 4: Kansas City has been a very weak road offense, so
• 50:21
  Speaker 4: I expect Kansas City's offense to do a lot less
• 50:24
  Speaker 4: in the game today. Kansas City looks like they're going
• 50:27
  Speaker 4: with a bullpen game. Stephen Cruz as listed as their starter.
• 50:31
  Speaker 4: He's a relief pitcher. His numbers aren't even good, and
• 50:35
  Speaker 4: he's going, you know, basically one inning every outing, so
• 50:37
  Speaker 4: he's gonna be an opener. Now, I believe that this
• 50:40
  Speaker 4: is a Stephen Colex start in the rotation, but he's
• 50:43
  Speaker 4: on bereavement leave again, which, dude, I think it's bad.
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: Dude.
• 50:46
  Speaker 4: I think because he was on bereavement before and it's
• 50:50
  Speaker 4: a family medical emergency. So to me, it seems like
• 50:52
  Speaker 4: somebody in his family is in the hospital right now
• 50:55
  Speaker 4: and he keeps having a miss time for it.
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: So that's bad.
• 50:58
  Speaker 3: You know.
• 50:59
  Speaker 4: I hope whatever's going on on, you know, I hope
• 51:01
  Speaker 4: it's not that bad, you know. I hope whoever it
• 51:05
  Speaker 4: is is all right. But I think Kolek is supposed
• 51:09
  Speaker 4: to play today, but I don't know if he will.
• 51:12
  Speaker 4: Looks like Kansas City to me, is going with a
• 51:13
  Speaker 4: bullpen game, and and I just showed you how bad.
• 51:16
  Speaker 4: Their bullpen is and it's fairly used. So I think
• 51:19
  Speaker 4: Kansas City is going to struggle here on the pitching
• 51:22
  Speaker 4: side of things. The Mets are going with Christian Scott,
• 51:25
  Speaker 4: and he's at least a starter that's had some success
• 51:28
  Speaker 4: of our three point four to nine ERA one point
• 51:30
  Speaker 4: three to five whip. Last time I backed him was
• 51:32
  Speaker 4: a great spot to play the Mets, and we did
• 51:34
  Speaker 4: get the win.
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: Great Scott, We did get the win with that. But
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: Scott worries me a little bit.
• 51:39
  Speaker 4: I mean, his whip isn't that good. His ERA at
• 51:42
  Speaker 4: home's not that good, four point five. He's been a
• 51:46
  Speaker 4: little bit off recently, like he's his walk numbers haven't
• 51:49
  Speaker 4: really been that good recently. He's not going deep into
• 51:51
  Speaker 4: games recently, so that worries me. The last time he
• 51:54
  Speaker 4: went five innings was the game where we played on
• 51:56
  Speaker 4: him and we got the win.
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: That was at San Diego.
• 52:00
  Speaker 4: I like the Mets in this game, but I don't
• 52:02
  Speaker 4: know if I'm willing to back Scott right now here. Man,
• 52:05
  Speaker 4: he's got a really high strikeout rate though, so he's
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: got some talent. Man, he could strike guys out at
• 52:10
  Speaker 4: the major league level. He's got a pretty low hit
• 52:12
  Speaker 4: rate too. His walks are the issue. He walks like
• 52:16
  Speaker 4: more than one guy every two winnings. You can't do that,
• 52:19
  Speaker 4: even though a lot of it, like he had five
• 52:20
  Speaker 4: walks in his first outing against Minnesota in one of
• 52:23
  Speaker 4: the third innings.
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: He hasn't been that bad since, so I'll give him that.
• 52:26
  Speaker 4: But he walked four guys last outing against the Braves,
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: so that is a little bit. Concerning his numbers against
• 52:33
  Speaker 4: Kansas City, though basically don't exist. Lane Thomas is the
• 52:36
  Speaker 4: only hitters faced him, zero for three, no strikeouts, no walks.
• 52:41
  Speaker 4: So I would lean Mets here and it almost made
• 52:43
  Speaker 4: my card. Even though their bullpen is very used up.
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: I still think I would back them full game though
• 52:49
  Speaker 4: over Kansas City's god awful bullpen.
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: Plus Kansas City's going with.
• 52:53
  Speaker 4: A bullpen game here, so they're bullpen's basically gonna be
• 52:56
  Speaker 4: in the whole time. Mets are getting the money for
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: what that's worth. You got to pay a ice though.
• 53:00
  Speaker 4: They're minus one fifty, so I think if you back
• 53:03
  Speaker 4: the Mets, you gotta make it a minus one run line,
• 53:06
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean, because minus one fifty is
• 53:09
  Speaker 4: usually my money line cut off for these games, you
• 53:12
  Speaker 4: might be able to find something in the minus one forties,
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: but yeah, maybe make your own minus one run line
• 53:18
  Speaker 4: or find a minus one run line. The Mets are
• 53:19
  Speaker 4: getting the money fifty two percent of tickets, ninety four
• 53:22
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on them.
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: I agree.
• 53:24
  Speaker 4: I would lean Mets and the money's backing the under
• 53:28
  Speaker 4: and the totals nine. I would not back the under
• 53:31
  Speaker 4: in this game. If you're gonna back the under at all,
• 53:34
  Speaker 4: you gotta do it in the first five.
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: But I wouldn't even do that.
• 53:36
  Speaker 4: I mean, Kansas City, They're gonna be using their bullpen
• 53:39
  Speaker 4: basically all games.
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: So is that really what you want? Yeah?
• 53:43
  Speaker 4: No, I think the way to play this game is
• 53:44
  Speaker 4: to play the Mets and make your own minus one
• 53:47
  Speaker 4: run line on that. And also, the public isn't gonna
• 53:50
  Speaker 4: want to do it. I know how bad Kansas City is,
• 53:52
  Speaker 4: and the odds makers, sorry, Zach, the odds makers are
• 53:55
  Speaker 4: basically telling you Kansas City is one of the worst
• 53:58
  Speaker 4: teams in baseball. Are not gonna be this heavily favored
• 54:01
  Speaker 4: that often. But the oddsmakers are also telling you something
• 54:05
  Speaker 4: by favoring the Mets like this.
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean?
• 54:07
  Speaker 4: The Mets have an awful record. Why would anybody want
• 54:09
  Speaker 4: to lay a favorite price on them like this?
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean?
• 54:12
  Speaker 4: So I think the oddsmakers are telling you something with that.
• 54:15
  Speaker 4: They're still telling you the Mets are better than the
• 54:17
  Speaker 4: record looks, you know. And Scott has talent, right like,
• 54:22
  Speaker 4: so if he fixes his walk issues, he could be
• 54:24
  Speaker 4: a pretty good pitcher. And you know, he has an
• 54:28
  Speaker 4: unfamiliarity advantage, don't forget that. So Kansas City, they're bad
• 54:31
  Speaker 4: offensively on the road except for yesterday, and well, and
• 54:36
  Speaker 4: I guess, yeah, just yesterday, I think, and unfamiliar you know,
• 54:41
  Speaker 4: hitters that are unfamiliar to the opposing picture a lot
• 54:44
  Speaker 4: of times won't do well against him, you know what
• 54:46
  Speaker 4: I mean? All right, next game up and then I'll
• 54:49
  Speaker 4: take a quick break here. I guess Red Sox White
• 54:52
  Speaker 4: Sox is the next game. The Red Sox won eight
• 54:54
  Speaker 4: to one yesterday. Noah Schultz, I like him, man, but
• 54:57
  Speaker 4: he wasn't really good in the game yesterday.
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: And Peyton totally I thought he would bounce back.
• 55:01
  Speaker 4: I did have a little bit of a lean to
• 55:02
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox in that game yesterday, but I kind
• 55:04
  Speaker 4: of liked the under and the game snuck over the
• 55:07
  Speaker 4: total by a little bit yesterday. Red Sox did some
• 55:11
  Speaker 4: offensive damage in that game. Don't know if that's gonna continue, though.
• 55:14
  Speaker 4: The Red Sox have been hitting a little bit better recently.
• 55:16
  Speaker 4: They are better at hitting on the road, which makes
• 55:19
  Speaker 4: not a lot of sense because they usually hit better
• 55:21
  Speaker 4: at home and it's a more hitter friendly park whatever.
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: The White Sox playing a fairly hitter friendly park. Two.
• 55:27
  Speaker 4: Red Sox used four relief pitchers yesterday, but they didn't
• 55:31
  Speaker 4: have to use their best relievers.
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: Really.
• 55:33
  Speaker 4: The White Sox have the lesser bullpen and they also
• 55:36
  Speaker 4: use four guys yesterday. Red Sox are ranked fourth in
• 55:40
  Speaker 4: bullpen right now, and I believe they have the third
• 55:41
  Speaker 4: best bullpenny array, so they're a good bullpen. The White
• 55:46
  Speaker 4: Sox are twentieth. They're okay, They're not quite that bad.
• 55:49
  Speaker 4: They're more of a mediocre bullpen in my opinion. Red
• 55:53
  Speaker 4: Sox offense has moved up a little bit. They're twenty second,
• 55:56
  Speaker 4: tied with the Angels now, so they're starting to move
• 55:59
  Speaker 4: up a little Eight Sox have actually dropped a little
• 56:01
  Speaker 4: bit down to eleventh, and you know, the Red Sox
• 56:05
  Speaker 4: have been kind of kryptonite to these good offenses, the
• 56:08
  Speaker 4: Red Sox have some of the best pitching. Which it's
• 56:11
  Speaker 4: crazy how bad the Red Sox record is. Dude, as
• 56:14
  Speaker 4: I keep saying, the Red Sox have one of the
• 56:16
  Speaker 4: best pitching stafs in baseball. They have one of the
• 56:18
  Speaker 4: better starting rotations and one of the better bultpens. Yet
• 56:22
  Speaker 4: their offense has been so bad and or you know
• 56:24
  Speaker 4: whatever it is. They're fundamentals. They can never come back
• 56:27
  Speaker 4: when they're down even two or three runs. I don't know, man,
• 56:30
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox should have a better record than they
• 56:32
  Speaker 4: do just based on how good they're pitching is alone,
• 56:36
  Speaker 4: Jake Bennett is going to be pitching for the Red
• 56:38
  Speaker 4: Sox here. He's looking like he might be the real
• 56:41
  Speaker 4: deal man, even though he doesn't really strike that many
• 56:43
  Speaker 4: guys out. He's pitching well. He's got a three point
• 56:45
  Speaker 4: one ERA point nine to eight whip that is good.
• 56:49
  Speaker 4: Two point eight nine roadyra that's also good. He's a
• 56:51
  Speaker 4: little bit better on the road. He is coming off
• 56:54
  Speaker 4: a start though he took a no hitter against Anaheim
• 56:56
  Speaker 4: into I don't know. I think he took a no
• 56:59
  Speaker 4: hitter into the thinning maybe in that game or something.
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: They let him continue to pitch. He pitched well.
• 57:04
  Speaker 4: He did not throw that many pitches though still he
• 57:06
  Speaker 4: did not hit one hundred pitches in that one, and
• 57:09
  Speaker 4: he had a good start against the Yankees to start
• 57:11
  Speaker 4: before that. Now the question is is he gonna be
• 57:13
  Speaker 4: in any sort of letdown after these really good performances
• 57:16
  Speaker 4: or is he just hot and is he gonna continue
• 57:19
  Speaker 4: to pitch well, you know, you got to try to
• 57:22
  Speaker 4: figure that out. But he's been good, you know, just
• 57:25
  Speaker 4: start after start, he's pitching well. So I'm leaning more
• 57:28
  Speaker 4: towards him pitching well.
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: Here. He's got a pretty low hit rate. He's got
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: a really low walk rate.
• 57:33
  Speaker 4: Strikeout rate is not really that high though he induces
• 57:35
  Speaker 4: a lot of ground balls. He's not a huge strikeout guy,
• 57:38
  Speaker 4: even though he is actually a huge.
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: Guy on the mound.
• 57:41
  Speaker 4: He doesn't really throw as hard as you would think.
• 57:43
  Speaker 4: White Sox has never faced him. That should be an
• 57:45
  Speaker 4: extra advantage. Again, young talented pitchers do better against these
• 57:50
  Speaker 4: opposing offenses that I haven't seen them before. White Sox
• 57:53
  Speaker 4: are going with Davis Martin. He's been one of their
• 57:56
  Speaker 4: best pitchers, although he is starting to regress a little bit,
• 57:59
  Speaker 4: you know, it was pretty surprising how well he was
• 58:02
  Speaker 4: pitching this season, where I thought there was gonna be
• 58:04
  Speaker 4: some regression there because he's okay, But I'm like, he's
• 58:07
  Speaker 4: not disc good like right, He's got a three point
• 58:11
  Speaker 4: eight RA still, which is really good.
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: His whip is a little bit high.
• 58:15
  Speaker 4: He indicates that his era should probably be more towards
• 58:18
  Speaker 4: the higher threes. I would say one point two six
• 58:21
  Speaker 4: whips still not bad. He's been really good at home though.
• 58:24
  Speaker 4: He has a point eight eight home the RA, so
• 58:27
  Speaker 4: he's been basically untouchable at home.
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: Some U some concerns.
• 58:31
  Speaker 4: Here, though didn't go deep into some of his most
• 58:34
  Speaker 4: recent outings. He got destroyed by the Yankees on the road,
• 58:38
  Speaker 4: but that's the Yankees, you know whatever. Also on the
• 58:41
  Speaker 4: road last time out, he was bad against Cleveland. That's
• 58:44
  Speaker 4: not a great sign because Cleveland is not good offensively,
• 58:48
  Speaker 4: and he walked five guys in three and a third
• 58:50
  Speaker 4: in He's gonna have no strikeouts there, So I don't know, Martin.
• 58:53
  Speaker 4: His command numbers are starting to get worse here. His
• 58:55
  Speaker 4: walk number hasn't been good recently. His numbers throughout June
• 58:59
  Speaker 4: actually were not particularly good, although granted he got just
• 59:02
  Speaker 4: pounded on the road by Minnesota and the Yankees. Here,
• 59:06
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox are probably not gonna do that to
• 59:08
  Speaker 4: him in the South side of Chicago. His overall numbers
• 59:12
  Speaker 4: are still good here, a low hit rate, low enough,
• 59:15
  Speaker 4: I would say, pretty low, walk rate, strikeout rate decent,
• 59:20
  Speaker 4: So you know, he's not a bad pitcher obviously, and
• 59:23
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox have not really been able to do
• 59:24
  Speaker 4: anything against him. The Red Socks only have five hitters
• 59:26
  Speaker 4: who have faced him eighteen hits, the only extra base
• 59:29
  Speaker 4: hit and in fact, the only.
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: Hits they have are will You're a bray you? All
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: Star snub? Will your a bray you?
• 59:35
  Speaker 4: The Red Sox have multiple All Star snubs, including Wilson Contreraz,
• 59:39
  Speaker 4: who has some of the better numbers in baseball hitting wise,
• 59:43
  Speaker 4: and he's not an All Star. The league is out
• 59:46
  Speaker 4: to get him. Man anyway, A bray you has a
• 59:49
  Speaker 4: double on a single and those are the only Red
• 59:51
  Speaker 4: Sox hits against him. Four zero strike out walk ratio,
• 59:54
  Speaker 4: one to eleven average, three twenty five ops. So Martin's
• 59:58
  Speaker 4: got the good matchup numbers. He's in the better of
• 59:59
  Speaker 4: his home road splits. You know what that makes me think?
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 4: I'm thinking under in this game, the totals eight. The
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 4: money is backing the over, though, but it is public
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 4: seventy three percent of tickets eighty nine percent of the
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 4: cash on the over.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 4: Under makes the most sense here. You might be able
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 4: to go full game with it. I mean, these bullpens
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 4: are not really that good. I'm not that intimidated by
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox offense. You know, first five under also
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 4: makes sense if you want to isolate just the starting pitching.
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: You know, I'm torn. I could see either being I.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 4: Could see Yeah, the debate for the argument for either
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 4: of those money is backing the Red Sox as well,
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 4: sixty six percent of tickets ninety percent of the cash
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 4: on the Red Sox. I mean, it makes sense in
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 4: that Bennett has more unfamiliarity and he's in better form
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 4: than Martin is right now. So I can see the
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 4: argument for that White Sox are favored around minus one
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 4: sixteen or so here and do what you want with
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 4: all that info. But yeah, the public might have a
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 4: tendency to lean a little bit more towards the White
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 4: Sox though, even with yesterday's loss, because the public likes
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 4: better offenses. All right, I'm gonna be right back. I
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 4: do have one more baseball playing here, and I'm giving
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 4: out a w NBA play.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: You already know what it.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 4: Is, though, because SOB already mentioned it and we're in
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 4: agreement on it.
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: I'll be right back, yep.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 4: Inside, I want to kill myself. We were on OWN
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 4: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: It was just complete bullshit.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 4: So that's that's how I'm gonna start off this show.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 4: Horrible Sunday one and five. I don't even know what
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 4: to tell you about that.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: never seen anything like this.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 4: Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 4: good day at all.
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: OWN four have not had a good season.
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 4: Man can slump that I'm on and the slump continues.
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: my browins hat man. I don't know what is going
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: on with the Bruins. Arch hape? Is that what it is?
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's it's March ninth. I think
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: who even knows? Man? I don't know what data is anymore.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: I'm not I don't even know what data is anymore.
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 4: Man's back with you after the worst day that I
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 4: could possibly have back with you as I always am
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 4: until I die at least oh and two yesterday and
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 4: yesterday it did not go well for me. Own five,
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 4: the worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 4: years doing this.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 4: The slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 4: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 4: other than potentially end it all.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: All right. Next game up is Cleveland Minnesota.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 4: I don't really want to talk about this series after
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 4: a Taj Bradley beat me yesterday. Minnesota got the win
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 4: in the return home spot yesterday. You know, I mean,
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 4: obviously I don't like Minnesota's bullpen. Minnesota used three relief
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 4: pitchers yesterday. Cleveland used three as well. Cleveland is the
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 4: better bullpen. They're sixteenth. They're yeah, like a mediocre bullpen.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 4: Minnesota is one of the absolute worst. Like I said,
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 4: they're twenty ninth. You could argue that the worst bullpen
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 4: Minnesota's seventh. Offensively, so they're better offensively. Obviously, Cleveland's been
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 4: awful twenty ninth. That is one problem with Cleveland. Obviously,
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 4: Cleveland's going with Slay Chaconi in this one. He's not great.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 4: Four point four to four ERA, one point four to
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 4: a whip. He's worse on the road as well. Four
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 4: point sixty five roadyra that's not good. You know, he
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 4: hasn't really been pitching particularly well recently. I mean, I
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 4: guess he's actually fairly good in June, but his walk
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 4: rate was still kind of high.
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I mean, there's not a lot
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: to like here.
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 4: His hit rate is too high on the course of
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 4: the season, his walk rate is pretty mediocre, strike out.
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: Rate is low. I don't know.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 4: I mean, there's not a ton to like here, Like
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 4: I said, except that he does have good numbers against Minnesota.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 4: Only six of their hitters have faced him, and they
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 4: only have one extra base hit, which is a double
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 4: from Keyeshawl. Is that how he pronounced his name?
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 4: Two strikeouts, no walks, one seventy six average, four to
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 4: twelve ops allowed. So Chaconi might actually match up okay here.
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 4: Connor Prelip is pitching from Minnesota. I think he's the
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 4: more talented pitcher He's been a little bit all over
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 4: the place. I believe he's a rookie this year. His
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 4: numbers aren't great four point nine to sixty RA, one
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 4: point three eight whip.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: He's been good at home.
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 4: Though, three point nine to nine Homie Ra. If you
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 4: look at what he's been doing, he's been good recently.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 4: Like over the month of June, he had a thirty
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 4: to eight strikeout walk ratio that's pretty good in twenty
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 4: eight in the third innings thirty two hits a lot
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 4: is not great, but he was fooling guys. He had
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 4: ten strikeouts last time out against the Rockies at home though.
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 4: But yeah, but he's at home in this game too.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 4: Pre Lip, I mean, he was good when he first
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 4: came came up, then he started pitching poorly.
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: He looks like he's.
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 4: Kind of coming back into form again here, so I
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 4: do think he's in better form again right now.
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: He's got a hit rate that's a little bit too high.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 4: His walk grate is kind of mediocre, so yeah, I mean,
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 4: he's got to kind of do something about that.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: He is still putting too many guys on base.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 4: Got a good strikeout rate though, so he does have
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 4: strikeout ability. He fools major league hitters, so that's good.
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 4: Cleveland has actually had a little bit of success against him.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 4: He had one start against them. I think their current
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 4: lineup only has twelve at bats against him. Only six
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 4: of their hitters have faced and Bazana hit a home
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 4: run off him though two fifty average eight fifty seven ops.
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 4: That's the only extra base hit they have, by the way,
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 4: four to two strikeout walk ratio. I mean, this game
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 4: is pretty difficult to predict for me. Man, the money
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 4: is backing Cleveland. I mean, I could see the argument
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 4: for it, just that you know, maybe it's a bounce
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 4: back for Cleveland after yesterday. Chaconi does actually have the
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 4: better matchup numbers, but I don't think he's actually the
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 4: better pitcher, So that would worry me. Sixty one percent
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 4: of tickets on Minnesota, sixty one percent of the cash
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 4: on Cleveland. If you're gonna play Cleveland, you should do
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 4: it full game because you want to take advantage of
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 4: the bullpen. Their bullpen is better. Minnesota is at about
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 4: minus one thirty here. If you're gonna play in Minnesota,
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 4: I would say do it first five. And I could
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 4: see the argument, which is just that you're gonna back
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 4: pre Lip, who's kind of in the better form here
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 4: and is the more talented pitcher in my opinion.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: Uh So I could see that being an argument too.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 4: The money's also backing the over eight and a half
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 4: for whatever that's worth. If you're gonna go over go
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 4: full game, and you know, make sure that you have
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 4: Minnesota's bullpen in the equation for you there. But I
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 4: don't have a good feel for that game at all.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 4: This next game, I actually consider putting on my car,
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 4: even though it would kind of be a public side
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 4: here Milwaukee and Saint Louis and I have a few
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 4: issues with it. I like Milwaukee in this game, but
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 4: I have a few issues. One is that this is
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 4: now gonna be a five game series because these teams
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 4: played a makeup game yesterday. They played a doubleheader, so
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 4: keep that in mind. There's gonna be a lot of
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 4: bullpen usage coming into this game from yesterday. Milwaukee won
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 4: both games. So Milwaukee's won all three games in the
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 4: series so far. At some point they might overlook Saint Louis, man.
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 4: I mean, I know I've been saying I don't think
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis is as good as their record looks. Obviously,
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee is the better team here, but at some point
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 4: I think Milwaukee.
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: Is gonna slip up somewhere.
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 4: But given what this pitching matchup looks like, I'm not
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 4: sure it's gonna be here. Milwaukee they have the better bullpen.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 4: They actually somehow only use three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: Is that really right? I don't know.
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 4: I mean, should I take this website's word for it.
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis used a lot, so I guess it is right.
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis used six, so that looks like they had
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 4: a double header yesterday. Yeah, I mean, I don't know
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 4: if I want to trust either bullpen in this scenario.
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: Though the Brewers are the better bullpen. They're ranked ninth.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 4: I think they're fourth in Bullpenny Ray. They're a strong bullpen.
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis not so much. At twenty first, they're mediocre
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 4: at best. Plus they're really unrested here. So Milwaukee's got
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 4: a bullpen edge. Milwaukee's eighth and hitting tied with the
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 4: Yankees in the A's As I mentioned, uh, they're the
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 4: better offense here. Saint Louis is seventeenth. Milwaukee's got Kyle
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 4: Harrison going Harrison. I mean, he's been good for pretty
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 4: much the whole season two point eight two ERA one
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 4: point oh eight whip. He's been worse on the road, though,
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 4: So that is one concern with back in Milwaukee here
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 4: is Harrison is not in the better of his own road.
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: Splits here four point six to eight.
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 4: Roady Ray didn't pitch well last time out at Arizona.
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 4: Had a bit of an issue there in that one
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 4: wasn't great. His road stats are kind of being skewed though,
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 4: by one really bad start at the A's Vegas Stadium,
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 4: which is like an impossible place to pitch pretty much
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 4: because it's high elevation and like a small stadium whatever,
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 4: So that one I considered to be an outlier. I
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 4: still think Harrison's gonna bounce back here. I mean, He's
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 4: been good in almost every one of his starts this season.
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 4: He's got a really high strike out rate, his walk
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 4: rate is pretty reasonably low, hit rate is low as well.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 4: I mean, there's not a lot to dislike here, except
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 4: for the fact that the Red Sox got rid of
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 4: him right after they traded for him. Harrison has dominated
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis as well, nineteen at bats. I know it's
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 4: not a big sample, but they have no extra base
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 4: hits against him. One oh five average, two eleven ops two,
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 4: zero strike out walk ratio. Really good stuff from Harrison there.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 4: He's going up against Michael McGreevy, and mcgreevy's numbers are
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 4: pretty good. A three point one two ERA, one point
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 4: one to one whip. I thought he was gonna pitch yesterday,
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 4: so I apologize.
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: I was wrong about that.
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 4: I thought he was gonna go in Game two yesterday
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 4: and that was not the case. He's been good at home,
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 4: though one point nine to six Homie are rast. McGreevy
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 4: does have the better of the home road splits here. Now,
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 4: the advanced analytics guys don't like him, even though he
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 4: continues to not put guys on base. They don't like
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 4: him because he pitches to contact, but it hasn't really
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 4: resulted in a lot of hits.
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: He's got a pretty low hit rate, low walk rate.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: His strike out.
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 4: Rate is really low, which is again is another thing
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 4: the advanced analytics guys do not like because he doesn't
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 4: fool guys.
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: He needs guys to hit into outs.
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 4: But if you're consistently doing that and not putting guys
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 4: on base, and your whip isn't a problem. I don't
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 4: think you're that bad. He's not as good as Harrison
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 4: quite obviously, and McGreevy does have bad matchup numbers here.
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 4: He doesn't do well against Milwaukee. Most of their hitters
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 4: have faced him. It's only fifteen at bats, but they've
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 4: really done damage here. For sixty seven ops fourteen twenty
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 4: two or fourteenth excuse me, for sixty seven average allowed
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 4: that's way worse. Fourteen twenty two ops, that's way worse.
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 4: Six to three strike out waal ratio, None of that
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 4: is good. So yeah, I kind of like Milwaukee just
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 4: based on the starting pitching matchup, But I worry about
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 4: a few things. Number one is that Saint Louis is
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 4: gonna be more motivated here, and they they got to
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 4: try to avoid getting swept here, you know what I mean,
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 4: So that makes it mean more to them. These teams
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 4: are playing tomorrow too, though, like I said, and you know,
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 4: we'll see if it's gonna be any easier for Saint
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 4: Louis with tomorrow's matchup. Harrison also doesn't do as well
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 4: on the road. McGreevy does better at home, so there
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 4: is all that coming into play here. I still mean
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee slightly eighty one percent of tickets ninety five percent
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 4: of the cash on Milwaukee, well more than slightly, because
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 4: I consider putting this on my card. I think I
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 4: like the Mets better than this though. On Milwaukee's public
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 4: as I just mentioned, but it looks like the money's
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 4: also coming in on them. At least for now, they're
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 4: about minus one forty, so it's kind of it's, you know,
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 4: it's a reasonable ish price, I would say on Milwaukee.
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: Here, money's also backing the over eight. I don't know
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: about that.
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 4: I mean, based on who the sturdy pitchers are, my
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 4: thought was kind of under in the first five. But
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 4: I do worry a little bit about you know, again,
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 4: Harrison not being that good on the road. McGreevy doesn't
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 4: have good matchup numbers, so those could throw a wrench
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 4: into trying to play an under which again I would
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 4: go only first five if I did that, But I
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 4: think Milwaukee full game makes the most sense. I mean,
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 4: there are more ways that you can get that right,
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean, Like, I think you're backing
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 4: still the more talented pitcher. You got the better bullpen
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 4: behind you and the better offense behind you. So that's
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 4: what I think about that. Saint Louis, I believe, also
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 4: doesn't hit as well at home. Speaking of not hitting
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 4: well at home, Texas, you probably know where I'm going
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 4: with this one. I'm gonna keep doing it, man, even
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 4: though it hasn't worked out as well recently. I'm gonna
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 4: play another under in a Texas game at home, first
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 4: five under four because I don't want to deal with
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 4: Anaheim's bullpen. Maybe Texas's bullpen won't screw me this time.
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 4: They're on my shit list right now, but I like
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 4: the first five under here. We're gonna avoid Anaheim's bullpen.
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 4: I believe Texas won yesterday, even though I kind of
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 4: leaned Anaheim and I kind of liked it to be
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 4: lower scoring yesterday.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: But I was wrong, dude.
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 4: Soriano was bad in the game yesterday. De Gram did well,
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 4: which did that didn't surprise me as much, even though
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 4: he had bad matchup numbers. Soriano I expected to do well.
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: He didn't.
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 4: Texas used four relief pitchers yesterday, but we're gonna avoid
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 4: their bullpen. They're the better bullpen though, Anaheim only used three.
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 4: But Anaheim's not a good bullpen. They're ranked twenty fourth.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 4: They're definitely like a bottom several bullpen. Texas I think
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 4: is a pretty good bullpen. Theyre ranked tenth right now. Offensively,
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 4: Texas has actually been a little bit better than Anaheim
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 4: at eighteenth Anaheim twenty second. Al I'm not quite sure
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 4: that's accurate. Anaheim is actually a little bit better offensively
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 4: on the road. But this is a very picture friendly ballpark.
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 4: Texas doesn't allow many runs here at home, and Texas
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 4: doesn't score many runs at home, as I keep pointing out.
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 4: And I like the starting pitchers here, Walbert Orraine just
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 4: pitching for the Angels. This guy, he's gonna be good,
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 4: in my opinion. He's really young still, he's got a
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 4: three point zero three ERA. I know his whip isn't
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 4: that good one point three to one, I get it.
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 4: But I think he's a talented pitcher man. He's got
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 4: to get his walks under control, but I think he's
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 4: got some good stuff here. He's been actually better on
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 4: the road as of late two point nine to one
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 4: roadier after earlier in the season he was much better
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 4: at home, but now his tilt is slightly towards pitching
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 4: on the road.
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: Now, I know his walk numbers have been a bit
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: of an issue.
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 4: I'm not gonna deny that pitched well still last time
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 4: out at Seattle, and two starts before that, he pitched
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 4: really well against the A's on the road in that stadium.
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 4: That's a really difficult stateium at pitching. He was really
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 4: good there. He pitched poorly against the A's the next
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 4: time out. But you know, I talk about when these
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 4: young pitchers have never been seen before by the opposing offense,
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 4: the opposing offense has a disadvantage.
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: But then when they face them again right.
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 4: After that, that offense has more of an advantage because
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 4: they just saw the guy and know what he's gonna throw.
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: At them, you know what I mean.
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 4: So that's like the biggest advantage that the hitters can
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 4: have against a young pitcher.
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: So that's part of the reason why I think he
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: was bad in that start.
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 4: Now, if you look at his overall numbers, he's got
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 4: a low hit rate, his strike up rate's pretty good,
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 4: ground ball rate is good, as walk rate is bad.
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: I get it. His walk rate is way too high.
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 4: I'm still gonna back him here in this one, though
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 4: Texas has not done well against him. I know, yes,
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 4: Texas has seen him before. I get it, and I
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 4: did just say that the second time this offense faces him,
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 4: they should do better. But it's not that recent.
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: That's the thing.
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 4: They faced him back in Anaheim back on May twenty third.
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 4: He went five innings to give up one run on
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 4: five hits, three walks. Wasn't great six strikeouts, but still
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 4: I think he could do well enough here to get
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 4: us this under They have nineteen at bats against him. Yeah,
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 4: maybe they'll make some adjustments based on what they saw
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 4: against him last time, but this is not an offense
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 4: that really can do a ton of damage. The only
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 4: extra base hit was a double from Neimo. They got
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 4: six strikeouts, two walks finding Nimo. That's your fantasy team name. Uh,
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 4: two sixty three batting average, six forty nine ops. So
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 4: you know, Uh, he has pretty good numbers against Texas,
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 4: and I know it was only pretty much in that
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 4: one start, but I still think he's gonna pitch well
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 4: here in my opinion, And we're also gonna back Mackenzie
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 4: Gore on the other side. He's got mediocre numbers. I know,
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 4: but he's way better at home. He's got a four
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 4: point three to one ERA one point two to seven whip,
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 4: but he's got strikeouts seven. He's been good in this
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 4: stadium two point four to nine Homie ra so he's way.
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: More backable at home. So I like that.
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 4: He wasn't great on the road last time out at Cleveland.
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 4: I know that's a bad sign because Cleveland doesn't hit well,
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 4: but Gore's not good on the road, and he had
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 4: seven strikeouts in one walk there, so he still had
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 4: his command in that start. Gore is a good strikeout pitcher.
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 4: He was decent in the month of June at least.
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 4: He's got a pretty low hit rate here on the
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 4: seat and his walk rate is a bit too high.
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 4: Like I said, that's his one issue as he's wild.
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 4: He's got a high strikeout rate though, so that's pretty good.
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 4: Uh So he does fool guys. He's got talent man
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 4: and Anaheim has really not been good against him in
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 4: thirty eight at bats, one fifty eight average, five thirty
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 4: six oh ps. The only problem here is again the walks.
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 4: Thirteen strikeouts, six walks. But I still expect Gord to.
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: Do well here.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 4: He pitched in Anaheim in that series in late May.
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 4: I think it was a different game than your Rainys,
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 4: but he won hit them through six innings. He allowed
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 4: one run on one hit, two walks, seven strikeouts, so
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 4: he was really good in that start. I expect him
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 4: to be good in this one too. We'll take the
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 4: under here in the first five. Where's this game?
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: American League? Where are you here? We are?
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 4: Yeah, money seems to be on the over here, but
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 4: it is also public seventy six percent of tickets ninety
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 4: three percent of the cash on the over. I like
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 4: the fact that money is backing your in though. I
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 4: talk about this when I see a strong market read
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 4: on the side where I think you have them the
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 4: less trustworthy picture, that leads me to believe that that
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 4: money back in that picture. They think that maybe both
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 4: pitchers are going to do well here, So that kind
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 4: of that backs the under to me. And in a way,
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 4: although the money looks like it is kind of on
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 4: the over right now, but I do think the over
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 4: is public. The total for the full game seven and
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 4: a half, so the odds makers are expecting a low
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 4: scoring game here. Sixty nine percent of the tickets on
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 4: Texas ninety percent of the cash on. Anaheim Texas is
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 4: a pretty heavy favorite at minus one fifty, so I
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 4: think that's also part of the reason why Anaheim is
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 4: getting some money here, is that you're they're thinking, Urin,
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 4: you can match up decently here, and maybe Anaheim should
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 4: not be that much of an underdog there. Although of
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 4: course Anaheim's bullpen is really bad, so keep that in mind,
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 4: all right. Next game up will be a part of
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 4: the ESPN double header, where I gave you guys a
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 4: play in the first game of the double header with Cincinnati.
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 4: I'm not playing either of these remaining games here, but
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 4: Arizona at San Diego's this game. San Diego won the
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 4: game yesterday to even the series. They won four to one.
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 4: This series continues tomorrow, by the way, so a lot
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 4: of these series continuing Tomorrow's. Tomorrow is a bigger Thursday
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 4: card than usual. Most teams are playing tomorrow, which makes
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 4: my work I have more work to do. San Diego
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 4: used three relief pitchers yesterday. I think there's still the
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 4: better bullpen here. Arizona used two. Arizona is ranked fifth,
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 4: I know in bullpen, but their era is still above four,
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 4: so I still think they're not really as good as that.
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 4: San Diego's got the better era out of the bullpen.
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 4: They ranked thirteenth, but I think their bullpen is better.
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 4: San Diego's offense is dead last, still really really struggling.
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 4: Arizona not much better at twenty six. We're looking at
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 4: a pitcher friendly ballpark here. I will see what these
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 4: pitchers can do in this one. Jose Cabrera's pitching for Arizona.
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: He's a young guy. I think he's a rookie right now.
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 4: He does have some talent if you look at his
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 4: scouting reports, but he's struggled to start his careers, so
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 4: I don't know how backable he really is here. Four
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 4: point seven to three Ray, one point five to eight
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 4: Whip That is not good. He's been really bad on
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 4: the road. Seven point two Roady Ray. That's not good.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 4: Although this is gonna be the easiest matchup he's had
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 4: so far. He's facing Minnesota, Tampa Bay on the road,
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 4: and then Milwaukee. He should get a little bit of
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 4: a reprieve here facing San Diego, the weakest offensive baseball
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 4: in a pitcher friendly park, So if he's gonna pitch well,
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 4: it should be in a game like this now. He
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 4: was actually good in that game against Minnesota, too, but
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 4: he was not very good in his other two outings,
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 4: and I think I took a loss on the show
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 4: trying to back him in one of those. He's got
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 4: a high hit rate, his walk rate isn't really that great.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 4: His strikeout rate isn't really that good either, so I
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 4: do worry that he's just struggled recently. But of course
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 4: San Diego's never seen him before, and this will be
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 4: his easiest matchups so far, So maybe he will pitch well,
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 4: and maybe he can ride this unfamiliarity here and do
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 4: a little bit better in this one.
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 4: I don't know if I really want a bank on it.
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 4: Michael King is obviously the much more proven pitcher. He's
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 4: pitching for San Diego. He's really their only good starter.
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: At this point.
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 4: You know, San Diego no longer with Dylan Cees. Their
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 4: starting rotation is really really a mess right now. King
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 4: is good though he has a three point five two
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 4: ERA one point one six whip. He's better at home
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 4: three point two eight home ERA. That makes sense generally,
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 4: He's pitched pretty well here. He's coming off a good
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 4: start against the Dodgers. He didn't throw that many pitches, though,
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 4: he went pretty deep into the game and was very
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 4: efficient and they decided to take him out and then
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 4: the bullpen lost.
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: The game, so that's great.
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 4: He's got a pretty low strikeout rate this year though,
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 4: like I always thought King was a little bit more
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 4: of a strikeout pitcher than that. He's got a really
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 4: low hit rate though, so he's been really hard to hit.
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is a little bit too high, but generally, yes,
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 4: he is good. He's been really good against Arizona in
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 4: sixty two at bats one ninety four average five forty
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 4: nine oh ps. Although he doesn't really have a high
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 4: strikeout rate here thirteen with four walks, but generally he's
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 4: got good numbers there. He does stifle Arizona's hitting, you know,
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 4: I mean the money I think is back in Arizona here,
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 4: which I don't think I could trust Cabrera here, man.
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: I mean he might do well seventy one.
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 4: Percent of tickets on San Diego, ninety one percent of
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 4: the cash on Arizona, so big pros versus Joe split.
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 4: Looking like there it's there in the market there with
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 4: the money jumping in on Arizona.
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: I don't think I could do it there.
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 4: That might be an indicator towards an under though, if
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 4: they think both pictures are gonna do well. But King
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 4: has good matchup numbers and he needs the more trustworthy pictures,
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 4: So I think I would probably slightly lean San Diego,
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 4: and I prefer their bullpen too. They're at about minus
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 4: one forty totals at eight or eight and a half,
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 4: and money is backing the over. But I could see
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 4: the argument for the under. I mean, like I said,
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 4: there are some arguments that both pictures could do well here.
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 4: The bullpens maybe are still backable enough. I mean, we're
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 4: not talking about bad bullpens here, so maybe an under
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 4: makes some sense there. And then we have Colorado and
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers here. They've split the series so far. The
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 4: Dodgers lost yesterday for to three. Colorado has been really
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 4: competitive against the Dodgers this year. I think the Dodgers
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 4: are just kind of overlooking Colorado.
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 4: Colorado's just getting super motivated to play the Dodgers. Both
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 4: games in the series have been a one run game,
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 4: with each team coming out on top once This is
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 4: the end of the series, so whoever wins this wins
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 4: the series. It looks like Colorado's changing their pitcher though,
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 4: so it was gonna be Ryan Feltner, and Feldner is
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 4: actually not that bad against the Dodgers, and he's actually
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 4: been Colorado's best starter, so maybe they should have stuck
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 4: with Feltner here. But it looks like they made a
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 4: switch to Hughes. So it looks like it is gonna
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 4: be Hughes now for Colorado. I don't know much about Hughes.
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 4: He is on their roster. He's a really young guy,
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 4: Gabriel Hughes. He's a young guy from Alaska. Interesting even
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 4: though you know, to me he looks at least half
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 4: a Latino here, so I don't know. He's got his
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 4: zero era so far. Obviously that looks good in a
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 4: one whip. He's only made one.
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: Appearance so far. He went three innings.
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 4: And he got to face a pretty weak Giant offense here.
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 4: He actually picked up a save in that game, interestingly,
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 4: so I think he pitched three innings at the end
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 4: of the game. So they gave him a low pressure
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 4: situation to get him, you know, accustomed to the majors,
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 4: you know, which makes sense. They put him in a blowout,
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 4: like whatever, just go out there and do what you can.
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 4: He finished the game, allowed two hits, no runs once
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 4: I got one walk, so he was fine in that game.
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 1: He wasn't really fooling anybody, though.
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 4: I don't know what to make a fuse because I
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 4: looked at his minor league numbers and they're not really
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 4: that good. He has kind of a starter's arsenal, but
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 4: it's all kind of mediocre to me. Like he's got
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 4: a mid nineties fastball, He's got a really typical arsenal.
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 4: I think his slider is good and has a lot
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 4: of good movement on it. He's got a curve, and
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 4: he's got a change up that's still like a work
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 4: in progress, so I think he does need to develop
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 4: his change up so he does have more pitches to
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 4: work with now. He's unfamiliar to the Dodgers, so he
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 4: might have a little bit of an advantage there and
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 4: that the Dodgers have never seen him before. But I
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 4: don't know if I want to trust hughes Man. I
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 4: actually think dude, I was considering maybe giving out like
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 4: a run line play on Colorado if it was gonna
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 4: be feltner because we kind of know more about who
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 4: he is, and he's actually been okay, and he's actually
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 4: decent against the Dodgers, and we'd get to fade Roki Sasaki,
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 4: who has completely gone off the rails again. So you know,
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 4: I have no idea what we're gonna get out of
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 4: Hughes in this game. Sasaki is going to pitch for
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers. He's been bad again recently doing I told
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 4: you that was gonna happen because he doesn't have the
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 4: mental fortitude for this. I don't think he's got a
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 4: five point four ERA one point four whip.
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 1: That's not good.
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 4: He is better at home four point six to two, homie,
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 4: he's more comfortable at home. But I told you, dude,
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 4: after he was on this nice run where he figured
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 4: everything out, he had one bad start against the White
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 4: Sox and I was like, he's gonna go off the
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 4: rail right now, Like that's gonna get to his head.
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 1: He's not gonna do well. He pitched okay in.
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 4: The next start against Baltimore, but then he was bad
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 4: two starts in a row against San Diego. That's not
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 4: a good sign, dude. If he can't even pitch well
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 4: against San Diego. Obviously, that's not a good offense. One
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 4: of those games was in San Diego's pitcher friendly ballpark,
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 4: and the other was at home, where Sasaki usually does better. Yeah,
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 4: he's not pitching well right now. I don't trust him
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 4: at all right now. He does have a reasonably low
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 4: hit rate on the season. It's not great, but it's fine.
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is a bit too high. Strike out
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 4: rate is pretty good one per inning. He's a lot
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 4: of decent amount of home runs too, though, which is
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 4: not good. His numbers against the Rockies are not good.
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 4: In nineteen at bats, all their hitters have basically seen
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 4: him at this point two to two strike out, walk
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 4: razio three sixty eight average, one thousand and eight ohps.
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 4: Those are not good numbers for Sasaki.
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: You know. I mean, maybe you could just go over
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: in this game.
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 4: I mean, the money's coming in fifty three percent of
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 4: tickets on the un under eighty eight percent of the
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 4: cash on the over.
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: The totals at ten, I mean, the Dodgers is.
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 4: Still probably gonna get theirs, especially against Colorado's bullpen, and
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 4: Hughes might not last that long in the game, so
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 4: probably you're gonna get a lot of Colorado's bullpen, and
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 4: I forgot to look at what they did yesterday. The
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 4: Colorado only used two relief pitchers, but they're not a
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 4: good bullpen. Dodgers also used two. Dodgers are ranked sixth
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 4: in bullpen. They're a decent bullpen. Rockies not good at
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 4: twenty seventh. Their ERA is below five at least, but
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 4: not good. Both offenses have been good Dodgers number one,
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 4: Colorado number four.
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: So that kind of.
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 4: Leads itself more towards lends itself more towards an under
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 4: type of game here as well, or excuse the over
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 4: type of game here as well.
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: Over.
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think the over probably actually makes
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 4: the most sense here. Money is slightly backing the Dodgers.
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 4: I don't know if I really would want to do
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 4: anything with that. I mean, you can't back Sasaki without
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 4: he's been pitching recently in his matchup numbers. Yeah, No,
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 4: minus two forty or so is the price on the Dodgers.
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 4: That is pretty high. You could probably make a case
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 4: for trying to grab Colorado on the run line in
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 4: the first five and grab them. Backing the unknown starting
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 4: pitcher here against a known quantity in Sasaki, who we
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 4: pretty much know is probably not gonna be that good.
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 1: You could try that.
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 4: I would like it more if it was Feltner though,
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 4: for Colorado, like I said, I don't know why they're
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 4: doing this, Like, you know, why not have Feltner? You know,
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 4: the guy who's more of a veteran, who actually has
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 4: decent numbers against the Dodgers. Why not use him here
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 4: and ease Hughes in and use Hughes in your next year?
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: Is you know what I mean?
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 4: I think this is pretty dumb. But maybe Colorado's like,
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 4: let's battle test you. Let's you know, have you faced
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 4: the most difficult offense to face in baseball?
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 1: Go have at it?
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 4: Yeah, whatever, that might not be good. So yeah, I
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 4: think over ten might be the best way to look.
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 4: Oddsmakers are telling you it should be a high scoring
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 4: game with a total like that.
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 1: So that's gonna do it.
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 4: For the baseball segment here we got WNBA have no
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 4: World Cup action for today, so I mean there's no
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 4: World World Cups not being played today. You're ready for
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 4: the Rockies? Yeah, I know, because they're your team. I
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 4: would not do that if Feldner was pitching again. I
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 4: would only do it in the first five. Their bullpen
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 4: has got awful. But I mean, yeah, I mean I don't.
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 4: I don't want to do anything with that pitching matchup there. Yeah,
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 4: if it was Feldner, you know, I could see a
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 4: better argument for Rockies first five.
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 1: I see no argument for taking them for the.
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 4: Full game Golden State and Toronto other than the price
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 4: is too high on the Dodgers.
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 1: That's the only real argument.
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 4: But I don't want to back Colorado's bullpen at all,
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 4: wnba I'm talking about here. Toronto is staying at home.
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 4: They did just lose to Dallas. They've lost two games
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 4: in a row at home, so they lost going into
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 4: the break, came out of the Commissioner's Cup break and
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 4: lost again. But we know Dallas is pretty good. They
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 4: got a nice win for us on the show yesterday.
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 4: Toronto does play Dallas again next, although I don't really
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 4: know if they're gonna overlook Golden State. I mean, Golden
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 4: State's pretty hot right now.
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 1: They're a good team.
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 4: They're in the better conference the West. This Golden State
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 4: team is a pretty dangerous team, dude, although they're better
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 4: at home than they are on the road. But they've
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 4: won both of their road games so far. They just
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 4: had a pretty easy, kind of ugly, low scoring win
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 4: against Washington. They only have Connecticut next. They're not gonna
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 4: be looking ahead.
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: I don't have a good angle in this game.
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 4: This is the game that I have the least read
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 4: on here. Yeah, I mean, I don't know what to
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 4: do with this game. The money is back in Toronto,
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 4: plus the points at seven and a half or eight here,
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 4: I don't have a strong disagreement with that. Fifty three
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 4: percent of tickets on Golden State seventy six percent of
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 4: the cash on Toronto.
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 1: Toronto is at least in more of a bounce back spot.
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 4: Golden State having to travel to Toronto, which I think
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 4: probably for the first time maybe you know, to be
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 4: a little bit of an unfamiliar spot for them to
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 4: have to do that and go to a different country
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 4: and play in a venue they haven't played him before.
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 4: I guess you can make that argument. I think they
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 4: haven't played there yet. Yeah, I don't think these teams
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 4: have played each other at all. And of course, like
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 4: I said, I think Golden State is better. They're better
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 4: at home, so that would be the other argument for this.
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 4: Golden State's only five and four on the road. So yeah,
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 4: maybe there's a I guess I slightly agree with Toronto
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 4: plus the points, but no strong opinion for me on that.
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 4: You're waiting for my analysis. I could be wrong, though,
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 4: you know. I'm also trying to help people do their
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 4: own handicapping. Even though I'm stubborn. I'm gonna disagree with
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 4: people making plays and I think that don't line up
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 4: with what I think. But if you have a better
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 4: angle than I do, you know, and it winds up
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 4: being a good play, then yeah, I mean, all right,
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 4: I disagree with SOB on this one.
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 1: I do not let Connecticut here.
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 4: Connecticut just beat Minnesota, dude, I mean, come on, do
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 4: you really think they're gonna beat Minnesota again in a zigzag.
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 1: Spot two days later?
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 4: And that was in Minnesota, by the way, So this
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 4: is a quick road revenge angle for Minnesota. And remember
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 4: Minnesota is without their two best players in that game.
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 4: Collier has been out all season, Miles, their rookie of
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 4: the Year candidate.
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 1: She missed that game too, And it was also.
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 4: Still an outlier if you dig into this game, you know,
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 4: I mean, it was just kind of ridiculous. Connecticut shot
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 4: fifty percent from the field come on, forty seven percent
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 4: from three. I know Minnesota hit more threes because they
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 4: took twice as many, but.
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 1: This is not gonna happen again.
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 4: And yes, I know Connecticut was bad at the free
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 4: throw line. Maybe they'll be better in that department, but
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 4: they're not gonna shoot fifty percent from the field again.
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 4: Forty seven percent from three again against the best team
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 4: in the league.
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 1: That's not gonna happen. So this is an outlier.
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 4: I think Minnesota is going to take them more seriously
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 4: now because that was just a gross loss, an ugly
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 4: loss at home. Now they're going on the road the
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 4: one I have two major issues with it.
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 1: Though I like Minnesota in this game.
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 4: I think they will not overlook Connecticut now they've lost
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 4: two games in a row.
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 1: By the way, that was a return home spot as well.
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 4: For Minnesota, so you can kind of explain that that
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 4: was a bad spot. They were coming off a big
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 4: game against the Liberty, which I know they lost, but
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 4: it was a return home spot, right. I really don't
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 4: think they showed up at all for that game against Connecticut.
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 1: Plus again, Miles was out.
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 4: I think it was her second game out, by the way,
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 4: so I'm not sure about that now. One of my
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 4: concerns is is Miles coming back here because she's basically
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 4: their best player right now, even though she's a rookie,
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 4: and if she comes back, you know, I talk about
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 4: the reverse injured player spot. I don't really love Minnesota
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 4: if she does come back because a lot of times,
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 4: well you won't get value on them anymore, really, because
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 4: the line will have to shift with that star player
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 4: coming back. Plus you know they have to get used
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 4: to her playing again and she has to ramp it
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 4: up again. However, I don't think they're gonna overlook this game, dude,
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 4: even though the other concern is they do have a
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 4: big game against the Liberty next, which is a revenge
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 4: game from not too long ago when they just lost
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 4: in New York. New York is the best team in
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 4: the East. Probably that game is a TV game on
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 4: ABC on Saturday, so yes, it could be a look ahead.
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 4: This is a TV gum on USA Network. Maybe Connecticut
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 4: gets up for it because it isn't home, but I
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 4: think it's a zigzag, dude. I don't think Minnesota's gonna
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 4: overlook Connecticut. And I showed you what the outliers were
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 4: in that game. Connecticut is not gonna shoot that well
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 4: in this game. So I still like Minnesota in this
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 4: one to go out on the road and lay fewer
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 4: points here.
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: They were laying eleven and a half at home.
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 4: They're laying seven and a half here, or no, six
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 4: and a half, as SOB said, you're getting it on
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 4: the better of the key number here. That almost seems
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 4: to indicate to me that Miles isn't coming back. So
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 4: if she doesn't come back, I like this more. The
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 4: money is all over Minnesota. By the way, uh, sixty
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 4: two percent of the tickets on Connecticut, seventy percent of
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 4: the cash on Minnesota. I told you Connecticut was a
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 4: public underdog here because I think the thought is, oh, well,
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 4: if Connecticut can go into Minnesota and beat Minnesota in Minnesota,
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 4: then obviously they can cover as an under dog at home.
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 4: No, Connecticut is asked they're the worst team in the league.
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 4: Minnesota is the best. I don't think Minnesota is gonna
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 4: overlook them after losing to them the first time. Connecticut
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 4: is not gonna be that hot shooting again. Minnesota's defense
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 4: is still really good. They're laying six and a half
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 4: it's a decent number here. I would lay the points
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 4: with Minnesota in that one, and I like it better.
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 4: If Miles isn't coming back in this game, that would
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 4: make me consider it a bit more strongly. Although I
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 4: still worry about the look ahead a little bit there.
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 4: I still think the better play is this last game,
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 4: which I am gonna have on my card. When you
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 4: listen to me, you make money, Well, well that's good,
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 4: all right. Yes, I do not recommend. I don't recommend parlaying. Yes,
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 4: it's it's not a trap. How is it a trap
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 4: when the public is all coming in on Connecticut in
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 4: this game? The public is not playing Minnesota here. So yeah, no,
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 4: I don't agree with that. I agree with the sparks,
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 4: which I'm about to get to right now. This is
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 4: the best play in my opinion. I mean, I have
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 4: a few concerns with Minnesota, but I like Minnesota in
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 4: that game. Again, it's a zigzag spot the better team.
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 4: If they're motivated, they should get it done.
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying.
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 4: You want to play on teams like that, the better
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 4: team after they lose to the worst team in the league.
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 4: You want to play on that better team to bounce
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 4: back typically, so I'm almost there with that one. And again,
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 4: even if Miles does come back, you're gonna be on
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 4: the better number. If you lay the six and a half.
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 4: You know, if she's coming back, that line's gonna move
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 4: up to like eight and a half probably or nine,
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 4: maybe even higher. So if you play Minnesota right now
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 4: and she does come back, you're gonna be on the
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 4: value side of it too, So you know, maybe that
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 4: is still the way to look, and you're getting the
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 4: key number on the right side of the key number seven.
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 4: I'm on LA, but I found it at seven and
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 4: a half. That is my best bet here. Unfortunately a
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 4: sab mentioned this line is six and a half at
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 4: most places. However, there is still a seven and a
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 4: half out there at the m book with the lie
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 4: And although I think you have to lay minus one fifteen,
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 4: I would still do that. I would still take the
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 4: plus seven and a half at minus one fifteen rather
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 4: than taking six and a half. But if you don't
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 4: have any other option, I agree with the six and
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 4: a half as well. It's just a little bit less
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 4: enticing to me, but there's a lot going for this
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 4: LA play here seventy three percent of the tickets on Indiana,
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 4: sixty four percent of the cash on Indiana. And in fact,
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 4: I'm actually surprised the line dropped because I'm pretty sure
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 4: Caitlyn Clark is back in this game for Indiana. So
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 4: that's part of the reason why I like this, Right,
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 4: isn't she back? Hold on, let me make sure of that.
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 4: Last I looked, she was probable.
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 1: Hang on, I'm gonna make sure real quick.
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 4: So you know, you'd think the line would go up
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 4: a little bit if she's coming back. She's listed as probable,
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I think she's coming back here. So that's
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 4: part of my handicap, of course, But there are a
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 4: lot of angles we can use in this game. Indiana's
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 4: coming off beating LA before the break, and that was
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 4: the first game without Clark, so remember that was the
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 4: injured player spot. LA was coming off a couple of
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 4: tough games against Phoenix, and you remember they had that
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 4: fight with Phoenix. Phoenix is the team that injured Caitlin
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 4: Clark with the neck pushing, you know what I mean,
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 4: So that was you know, those are some big games there.
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 4: Then they beat LA the first game without Clark, and
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 4: you remember I liked Indiana in that game because I
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 4: thought they were gonna step up their game without Clark,
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 4: and they did, and they embarrassed LA. They beat them
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 4: one eleven to eighty seven in Indiana. LA's defense is
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 4: not good, I know, but I liked them in this game.
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 4: So first of all, we have a quick revenge angle
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 4: here because that game just happened.
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 1: So I think it's possible.
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 4: Indiana overlooks LA because they did just beat them easily.
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 4: And if you dig into this game, I think it
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 4: was a little bit of an outlier too.
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 1: If we look at this game.
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 4: I mean, Indiana shot ridiculously in this game. Okay, they
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 4: shot fifty five percent from the field, fifty three percent three,
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 4: they were plus eighteen from three point range, and there
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 4: were plus ten from the free throw line. They went
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 4: to the free throw line twelve more times. Yeah, that's
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 4: an outlier, I would say. I think all those things
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 4: that are gonna regress. I know LA's defense isn't good,
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 4: but Indiana's not gonna shoot absolutely lights out like this.
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 3: Again.
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 4: They're not gonna hit over fifty percent of their threes.
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 4: They're probably not gonna go to the line as much
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 4: in this game on the road so I think we're
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 4: gonna see some regression here. Plus la only shot twenty
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 4: percent from three, so they're probably gonna shoot a little
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 4: bit better from three. And yes, I know Indiana did
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 4: win the rebound battle, so yes, that is a concern
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 4: that they're better at rebounding than la Is. But still
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 4: that that was definitely an outlier type of game. Man,
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 4: So that's one thing to consider here. But there's more
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 4: to it than that. So yes, this is a quick
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 4: revenge game if you want to call it that, or
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 4: a zig zag game, or I think la Is gonna
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 4: show up.
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 1: And Indiana may not.
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 4: Now, Indiana, they did already play in the Pacific time
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 4: zone at Vegas, so they don't have to us to
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 4: the time zone here. This game, by the way, is
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 4: on USA and CNBC, so it's a TV game which
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 4: usually pumps up the home team a little bit more. Now, Indiana,
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 4: they went to Vegas and they beat Vegas. Dude, that
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 4: is a huge win, beating one of the best teams
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 4: in the league, the returning champs. And it's not as
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 4: good as it looks. Remember, because Vegas was without their
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 4: best player, Asia Wilson. I know Indiana was without Clark too.
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 4: I know both teams were without their best player here
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 4: in that game, but that's still a big win for
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 4: Indiana over Vegas and it looks better than it really was.
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 4: Now they're going to LA, a team that they just
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 4: beat prior to the All Star Break.
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 1: And who does Indiana have next?
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 4: Oh yeah, they got Phoenix next, which is gonna be
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 4: a quick revenge rebutting. You know, that's a big game
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 4: because Phoenix is the team that injured Caitlin Clark and
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 4: then they got in that huge fight with so there's
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 4: like this rivalry going on there. They hate Phoenix, so
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean, it's this is gonna be
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 4: a big deal playing them again, and then they play
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 4: Vegas and Golden State after that. So every game surrounding
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 4: this LA game is bigger my opinion, to Indiana than
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 4: this one. And it's a reversed injured player spot on
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 4: top of all that, because Caitlyn Clark should come back
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 4: in this game. I believe she's coming back, although we
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 4: do have to check Kelsey Plum's status for LA because
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 4: she's their best player. But if Clark is coming back,
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 4: you gotta think Indiana's thinking, well, if we could crush
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 4: La without Caitlin Clark. Of course we're gonna beat them
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 4: with Caitlyn Clark, right, you know what I mean, that's
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 4: gonna be the thinking. But Clark's been out for a
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 4: couple of games. She's gonna try to come back here.
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 4: And you know, I talk about reverse injured player spot,
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 4: you get less value on that team when that star
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 4: player's coming back. That team tends to be overvalued. And
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 4: she's still got to work her way back into the rotation.
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 4: And you know that Indiana's coach has been kind of
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 4: an idiot with Clark in the rotation, like she does
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 4: weird things with the rotation, so it could mess up,
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 4: you know, kind of the chemistry of the team has
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 4: going on right now. Though I like Clark, she's a
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 4: good player. I think she's you know, getting assaulted on
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 4: the court and whatever, and that's a really bad thing.
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 4: But I don't really like, you know, necessarily like how
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 4: Indie plays with her in there, just because the coach
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 4: doesn't use her correctly.
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 1: So that's what we.
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 4: Got going on here. We do have to see if
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 4: Plumb is coming back. Uh so it might be reversed
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 4: in your player spot on both sides, But Clark is
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 4: the bigger name. Of course, Plumb is still out, so
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 4: we don't have to worry about that.
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 1: She's out for a while.
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 4: Brink is actually still out for LA as well, so
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 4: LA is missing two of their you know, kind of
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 4: better players here that they've both been out already for
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 4: a while. Though, Uh so we're getting LA as an
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 4: underdog with all that going on, Indiana's public seventy three
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 4: percent of tickets, only sixty four percent of the cash.
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 4: Try to get the seven and a half on this.
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 4: I saw it at a couple of books out there.
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 4: I still agree with six and a half. You might
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 4: be able to get seven at like the Roman Emperor's book,
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 4: because I see a six and a half juice there.
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 1: You can figure it out.
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 4: You know, you might be able to wait because you know,
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 4: if Caitlyn Clark is one hundred percent confirmed, she's probable
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 4: right now. So if she's gonna be confirmed that she
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 4: is gonna play, this line will go up a little bit,
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 4: presumably on Indian. So I guess you could wait around,
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 4: just watch the market for a while today, because I
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 4: don't think you're gonna get worse than six and a
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 4: half on this, But you might be. And if even
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 4: if you do, like, there's not a huge difference between
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 4: six and six and a half. The key number is
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 4: seven because that's when teams stopped potentially fouling. So if
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 4: you wait around, you might be able to find it.
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 4: And I found it earlier in the day, So that's
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 4: what we're doing.
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 1: That's it. You thought it would be seven and a
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 1: half without her?
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 4: No? No, what what was the line with?
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 1: No?
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 4: Indiana was six and a half at home without her?
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 4: What are you talking about? Sob Indiana was minus six
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 4: and a half against LA without Caitlin Clark.
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure.
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 4: That was the number six and a half at home.
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 4: Now they're on the road, So with Caitlin Clark in there,
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 4: it makes sense that it would be around six and
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 4: a half or seven and a half. With her out,
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 4: it should be like three and a half. So I mean,
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 4: I guess that could that could potentially happen. I guess
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 4: if you think Kaitlyn, she's probable. So I'm not banking
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 4: on that. If you really think that Caitlyn Clark is
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 4: gonna be announced that she's actually not playing in this game,
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 4: this line will drop further. So that's the only way
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 4: this line drops. But yeah, I mean otherwise, I don't
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 4: think some No, why the fuck would I go to
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 4: a WNBA game? Absolutely not. And plus you think I'm
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 4: gonna where Am I gonna go? Mohegan's son and watch
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 4: Britney Griner the Man and the worst team in Yeah,
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 4: I'll go tonight. I'll go to that game tonight. The
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 4: worst team in the NBA. No, and they're moving to Boston,
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure. So we get the worst franchise right now.
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 1: That's great.
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 4: No, there was a WNBA game The Sun played in
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 4: Boston last year, and I told you I was in
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 4: Boston that day. I think I was going to a
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 4: comedy show or a concert or something. There were a
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 4: bunch of people going to that WNBA game. It was
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 4: fever Son and everybody that was going to the game
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 4: was rooting for Indiana. It was all Caitlyn Clark Jersey.
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 4: Nobody was rooting for Connecticut. So Connecticut, you know they're
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 4: supposed to have a home advantage, semi home advantage in Boston,
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 4: Yeah they did not. Everybody was rooting for Indiana on
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 4: that game. So that tells you where the public is at.
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 4: Plus Indiana's Sophie Cunningham. She's my favorite. I like her
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 4: better than Caitlyn Clark. Although Clark actually looked kind of
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 4: cute when she was at the World Cup the US
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 4: game the other night, if you saw that in her
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 4: US World Cup gear, she looked alright, So I don't
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 4: mind that. But I like Sophie. Sophie Cunningham. People will
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 4: say her boobs are too small. Yeah, I'm gonna tell
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 4: them they're gay, because I think she's still hot.
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 1: That's gonna do it.
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 4: She's still very feminine, all right, that's gonna do it.
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 4: My players today are one of that I don't even remember.
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 4: Oh yeah, Red's first five spread, because that's the only
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 4: way that you can get the price down into a
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 4: range that I like. But we're gonna Backchase Burns as usual.
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 4: We're gonna take first five under in Anaheim, Texas. I
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 4: lean towards the Mets fairly strongly as well, and I
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 4: guess the Brewers but I don't know, man, And then
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 4: we're gonna take the La Sparks plus the points.
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 1: I apologize.
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 4: I know. I found it at seven and a half.
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 4: I think it might reappear some books. I think might
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 4: at least have a seven or seven and a half
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 4: out there. I still agree with the six and a
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 4: half as well, maybe put a little bit less money
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 4: on it, but it's a great spot that I wouldn't
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 4: want to pass up, So I still agree with taking
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 4: six and a half on it. It's just it's not
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 4: as good as seven and a half. You're losing some
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 4: of the you know, you're on the wrong side of
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 4: the key number.
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 1: But it's not as key as it is in football.
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 4: Okay, Like seven is more key in football than it
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 4: is in basketball, so it's not as much of a worry,
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 4: but it is still key ish. Yes, Sophe Cunningham. That's
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 4: gonna do it. Learn it's on a Twitter, Learn its
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 4: on on Instagram, Like subscribe to this channel here. We're
• 1:46:50
  Speaker 4: like three subscribers away from five hundred, although people will
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 4: unsubscribe as well, but let's do it. No Yankees fans allowed,
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 4: except for mister Penzy because he's not a loud mouthed
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 4: asshole about it. Listen on Audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. Those
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 4: numbers have kind of hit a plateau, so you know,
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 4: trying to get more views.
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 1: Listens anywhere that I can covered.
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 4: In Yuke on YouTube, Patreon dot com slash Learned to
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 4: Toad if you want to throw me support over there.
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 4: There's some bonus yuke stuff there, which I'm trying to
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 4: keep up to date. But again, I gotta get my
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 4: voice back. It's been bad for over a month, probably
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 4: because this show takes a lot out of me. Baseball
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 4: season really ruins my voice, I think.
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 1: But it's summer.
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 4: My voice should be better because you know, we don't
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 4: have the heat going on, so it's less dry here.
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 4: Maybe the AC is trying me out because I'm not
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 4: in Europe, so I got Central Air blasting in my face.
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 1: So yeah, America. Fuck yeah.
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 4: Loser Cast, we did an episode last night and we're
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 4: on Tuesday nights. We had Forest Mommy on the show
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 4: last night, so you can go check that out. She
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 4: was our guest last night. I think we had a
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 4: decent it was a fun episode last night. We had
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 4: some decent loser picks last night as usual. And the
• 1:48:04
  Speaker 4: New York Giants g Spot podcast I think will happen
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 4: at some point. And that other show that I was
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 4: on that recorded on Sunday, I think is when we
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 4: recorded it. The here's the thing, podcast, which is Snoop
• 1:48:15
  Speaker 4: I think is his name Poop whatever his name is.
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 4: One of the dudes from The Pick is in podcast
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 4: that I was on a couple of weeks ago.
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 1: It's his solo show. He released it yesterday.
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 4: I know it was on Twitter, but I'm pretty sure
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 4: it's probably on YouTube, I would guess. So you can
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 4: go check that out. It's called Here's the Thing. You
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 4: can check those guys out there at you know, The
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 4: Pick is in as well. And I think they have
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 4: another show too where they do conspiracy stuff that they
• 1:48:39
  Speaker 4: might have me on as well. So I don't know,
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 4: I could talk about pretty much anything. I'm a multifaceted individual.
• 1:48:46
  Speaker 4: Let's have a winning day today.
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 4: We got to go two and one here. We got
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 4: to get back on the winning side. If we win
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 4: the WNBA game tonight, we're winning again on the WNBA season.
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 4: We had a winning season last year and it looked
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 4: like it was going to be impossible to lose the
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 4: winning season this year. But let's let's get back on
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 4: the winning side. I think we're seven and seven. Let's
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 4: get it done. And then I don't know what I'm
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 4: gonna do with the World Cup, but that will continue.
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 4: Thursday continues with a weird game between France and Morocco.
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 4: If you don't know what's going on with that, I'll
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 4: explain it tomorrow. Uh. There might be some rigging going
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 4: on in that game. That's gonna do it for now.
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 1: Peace.
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 4: Thanks for hanging out everybody, except for that one asshole
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 4: that I kicked out of the chat.
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 1: But thanks to everybody else.
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet. Don't you play from the flow?
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 2: Your name steal mean something to somebody for show. Put
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 2: the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 3: No hold on, hold on nothing, no hold on, hold
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 3: on me. You are that bites hot.
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 2: Don't get the crown, hold on, hold on, stay with
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 2: me now