Latest / 360 with Katie Woolf / Head of the Northern Australia Strategic Policy Centre John Coyne explains what the Defence Strategic Review means for the Northern Territory

Transcript

Head of the Northern Australia Strategic Policy Centre John Coyne explains what the Defence Strategic Review means for the Northern Territory · 360 with Katie Woolf

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: As you would have heard throughout the week, there's been
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: a lot of coverage about the Defense Strategic Review which
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: the federal government released earlier in the week, and I
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: think the big question out of the Northern Territory has
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: been what is it going to mean for the Northern Territory.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: We know that the top end and indeed Darwin incredibly
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: strategically important. Now joining me on the line is doctor
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: John Coyne, the head of the Northern Australia Strategic Policy
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: sent Doug.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: Good morning to you, John, morning Katie.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Firstly, how important was it that this review happened?
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: Look at it was really really important. I guess many
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: of many listeners will sort of sit there and go
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: as I do occasionally go. You know, no government has
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: ever released a report that they haven't said, is, you know,
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: the most important in a generation or a decade or
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: something else like so true on this occasion. You know,
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: we face on uncertain times, We face a strategic environment
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: that is really uncertain, something we haven't seen a long
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: long time, and you know, my best assessment is it's
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: going to probably last decades. So this is really, I
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: guess a refocus for defense for someone who, as you know,
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: and we've talked about before. I'm passionate about Northern Australia
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: and I believe that, you know, it's economic and social
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: prosperity is important to Australia's national security. So when I
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: read the Defense Strategic Review, I'm really happy with each focus.
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: It's certainly provided a great deal more focus on the
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: importance of Northern Australia, more so than a Defense Strategic
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: Update in twenty twenty, and certainly has more clarity than
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: probably since nineteen mid nineteen eighties when Paul gid wrote
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: his white paper. So I guess the message here is
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: is that it makes a clear statement that we need
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: not just the fixed bases and target hardening in Northern Australia,
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: but troops and capabilities need to be there. But also
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: it makes reference to infrastructure like transport, like roads as well.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Now, John tell us, you know, obviously, like you've just
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: touched on, we all know that Northern Australia is so
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: strategically important. I mean, even if you just look at
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: where we are geographically. But there's been some discussion about
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: whether it's going to mean more troops for us or
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: what it's going to mean for US in terms of,
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: you know, the level of defense personnel that we've got
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: here in the Northern territory. Are we going to see
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: an increase? Do you reckon?
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: Look, I think you know the short answer that is is,
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: I think there will be at least some increase in
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: troops in Northern Australia in general, and certainly that's a
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: reversal of what we've seen over the last decade. But
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: I think the real investment, in the real story is
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: one about investment in in bases and in linking those
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: bases together and creating a network of fully operational bases
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: across Northern Australia. That means certainly for the average territory
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: who's looking for evidence of what it mays, that means
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: an economics spend on instruction in Northern Australia.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, now tell me as well. I know that there's
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: been some discussion and you're much more of an expert
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: in this space than what I am, but they've been
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: a discussion and certainly been you know, mentions of us
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: having sort of Australia more generally having sort of more
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: capacity when it comes to missiles rather than you know,
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: rather than if there was you know, I guess a
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: war on you know, on Australian soil. So having that
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: capacity with missiles, et cetera. Do you think that that
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: could mean that we here in the Northern Territory might
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: indeed be a base for that kind of you know,
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: for that kind of weaponry.
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: I do think it means that, but it's a that's
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: a sort of a complex question. So I want to
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: there's a couple of sort of dimensions to it. The
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: first one is is, you know, what we've learned from
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: the war in Ukraine is that logistics are important, So
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: the capacity to have enough in case of a conflict,
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: having enough ammunition, food, water, fuel. Okay, So a lot
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: of this investment is about manufacturing missiles in Australia. Now
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: I've been an absit here, you know, I would love
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: to see that sort of manufacturing done in Northern Australia.
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: It creates jobs, it's a great location to do it,
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: and it's a great place to live for those people
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: working in the industry. I think, however, you know, if
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: I'm being very honest to those listening, I don't think
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: that that we're going to see missiles being manufactured in
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: Northern Australia. My second point though, is that a lot
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: of this we talk about it in terms of conflict.
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: Everyone's sort of saying, you know, this VSR is about conflict,
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: and there can be no doubt it's about increasing our readiness.
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: But what people have got to understand is, you know,
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: whether it's missiles or whether it's the Defense Strategic Review,
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: it's part of a broad sky hole of government effort
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: and an effort between Australia and our allies to deter
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: future conflict. So it's not just about missiles, it's also
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: about deterring conflict. Is also about the ployment and other issues,
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: but certainly to really go to the heart of your question,
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: so if you want to have a meaningful strike capability
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: and you want to base that so that to protect
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: our maritime approaches, then of course those sorts of capabilities
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: need to be based in Northern Australia. The other part
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: and component that most people misses. Northern Australia has some
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: of the best firing ranges and training ranges in the world,
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: and indeed Delamere Range is the best instrumented range in
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: the world as far as I know. And so as
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: a result of that, if there's someone somewhere where you
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: want to train, where you're able to use all of
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: the fifth generation warfare capabilities at once, including missiles, then
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: Northern Australia is that place.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Now, John, we know that China has responded to the
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: landmark Defense review. Was their reaction in line with expectations?
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: Oh? Look absolutely, But you know, let's put this in
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: really clear text. Okay, So the People's Liberation Army has
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: been undergoing one of the greatest modernization efforts in history.
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: So they are buying new weapons capabilities, they're getting more missiles,
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: they're getting more warships, et cetera. They've also gone about
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: after promising not to around militarizing islands in the South
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: China Sea, after promising not to put missiles and combat
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: aircraft on them, they're doing doing exactly that. There's a
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: great deal of irony in the response from the Chinese
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: government about you know this Australia using this as an
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: excuse to bolster its defense force. I mean, the pure
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: facts here are that the Chinese Communist Party is indeed
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: growing its military capability.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Now, John, this might be a little left field. We
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: know that the ship lift obviously here in the Northern Territory.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: The government has put aside a substantial amount of money
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: to build this shiplift facility. With the review, or as
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: I understand it, there's also going to be a food
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: review I think into the type of vessels that's still
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: set to happen. Is there any risk that the ship
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: lift for the Northern Territory could be made redundant?
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: Look, I don't think so. I certainly, well, I'm not
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: deeply involved in the calculation and of specific widgets and
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: lifting capability. It's certainly the specifications of the planned ship
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: lift are large enough that they can be used on
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: a range of vessels ranging from and you know, the
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: ship lift itself isn't all about isn't all about lifting
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: the military boats out of the water. It's also about
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: you know, the Perlings lead that operates in Northern Australia.
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: It's around range of other ships. So look, I think
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: that the ship lift itself doesn't run a risk of
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: being obsolete. I think it's a much needed piece of
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: infrastructure and one en whichment the program itself needs to
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: be accelerated and one of the key one of the
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: key factors in the Defense Strategic Review that the peat
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: there is that you're not only is the North important,
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: but you know, we actually need to move fast to
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: do these improvements in bases and ports and in terms
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: of infrastructure, we need to do it quickly.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: Well, doctor John Coyn, It's always great to catch up
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: with you, and we always appreciate the fact that you
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: make these kinds of things quite easy for us all
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: to understand, because I think that, you know, sometimes in
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: these discussions just sort of wonder just how much has
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: been politicized and what it all means to a place
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: like the Northern Territory. So we always appreciate you, you know,
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: making it nice and easy for us all to understand.
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: Thanks Caurtie.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Always a pleasure, great to catch up with you. Thanks John,