Latest / Financial Survival Network / Make or Break for the Markets -- Avi Gilburt #5844

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Make or Break for the Markets -- Avi Gilburt #5844 · Financial Survival Network

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To see. The thing is when you ask me timeframe, I don't know
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how long it's going to take to get to one or the other, but
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I can say that over the next few weeks to maybe a month's time,
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the market is going to likely tell us which way it intends to go in
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the bigger picture. You're listening to Carrie Letts's Financial Survival Network where you get
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You need the Financial Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survival
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Network dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network now
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more than ever. And welcome. You are listening to the Financial Survival Network.
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I'm your host, Carrie Letts. Markets Well, they've been up or
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sideways, they haven't really been declining much. And the person you're about to
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hear from kind of cold this several months ago when the rest of the street
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was panicking, he held tight. And who's the smarter person. I'm talking
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about av Gilbert And the site is Elliott Wavetrader dot net. And if you've
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got a question for Avvy myself kl at Kerry Lutz dot com is the email
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address AVI. Welcome back, So you're mostly right. Well, thank you
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for having me back, and you know that's the goal. I know it's
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the goal. But there's a lot of people out there. Look, let's
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face it, there's a million newsletters, a million people pretend to know what's
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going on or claim they know what's going on, and yet often the boat
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is missed. And yet in your case, I wouldn't say we've gone up
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to new records yet, but you did say you expressed a confidence in the
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market that was completely lacking from virtually every other forecaster out there. Yeah,
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I mean the market. I can't say that the structure has been clean,
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but the overall path has been relatively clear. I was actually discussing this with
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some of our members today and when we were looking for the bottoming structure back
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down in a thirty five hundred region on the S and P five hundred,
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we we actually laid out the general path we expected for the market to take
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up to forty three hundred plus. We expected we get a rally towards the
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forty one hundred to forty one fifty region, a pull back consolidation back to
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maybe about thirty eight hundred thirty nine hundred and then and then another rally to
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forty three hundred plus. Overall, that's pretty much what the market has done
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right now. And over the last week or two, I've been highlighting what
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we call the danger zone entire members, and that was basically between forty three
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seventy five to about forty four thirty three, about fifty point fifty to sixty
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point zone that we call the danger zone that we were reaching before we topped.
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And I said, from this zone, we could see a very sizable
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decline. But I'm going to need to see something very very specific off that
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top for me to consider that we're going to be seeing a very very sizable
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decline. That's started yet and I haven't seen it yet. So what is
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the tip off? What particular formation, what activity is it? Volumetric?
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Is is it piercing? Support levels? Two hundred day moving average? What
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are we looking at? Well, it's basically an elliot wave construct. I'm
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looking for whether the market gives us five waves down off a high or simply
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a corrective back off a high, and each one will give me a different
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action to do. Okay, all right, So we're looking for the next
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wave and well, what you know, you've been following the market for decades.
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Here, what's your gut telling you? I gotta tell you, I
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have learned many, many years ago to avoid gut trading. For me,
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all I want to know is what is the market telling me? What is
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my gut dinner tell me? Is one thing. I just wanted to know
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what the market is telling me, And the market is telling me to be
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very very cautious. At this point in time when everybody started getting very very
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bullish as we were heading to forty four hundred, I was telling everybody,
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guys, it's time to now race stops on all your holdings and or raise
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cash because we are a very very dangerous posture right now, and we have
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to let the market let us know over the next couple of weeks exactly what
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we need to do, whether we're going to short the market, or whether
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we're going to go back into the market and possibly look at the next higher
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target of maybe forty eight hundred on the SMP back to the highs uh huh.
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Okay, So you got a time frame, you know, they always
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say you could ask somebody where the market's going, or you could ask them
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when it's going to go. But you should never predict both because invariably it'll
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be wrong to see. The thing is, when you ask me timeframe,
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I don't know how long it's going to take to get to one or the
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other, but I can say that over the next few weeks to maybe a
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month's time, the market is going to likely tell us which way it intends
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to go in the bigger picture. Okay, I'll buy that, because you
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know it's there are times when you just you can't really tell, but caution
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should be the buy word. But what about the concept that markets markets climb
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on a wall of worry? I mean, I mean, what they're really
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saying is it's more of a contrarian perspective. You know, when everybody is
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bullish, that's when you get a market high. When everybody is barish,
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that's when you get a market low. And you know, the extent,
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the extent to which people the extent to which people will be following that wall
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of worry is what is going to tell you how far are you from a
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market top? You know how much of worry is there, and that I'll
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tell you how far you are from the market top. I think it was
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pretty clear that last week, there really wasn't much in the way of worry
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as many of the people that I know that have been bearish for this twenty
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seven percent rally started turning bullish. There really isn't much surprize that we got
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to pull back here. Okay, So you can't just be a contrarian,
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though, right, because now sometimes the masses are correct, right, yes,
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and that and that's that's the thing that Elliott wave analysis tells us.
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You know, if you try, if the bulls are running and you try
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to be contrarian, oftentimes you'll get stampeded. You have to know, you
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have to have a better context for the market. And that's what Elliott wave
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analysis provides us. It provides us a much much better context where we are
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in the overall trend. Hey, you know what happens to two contrarians at
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the bull own at pump pump alone right in Spain? Right, what happens
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to contrarians there? They get go or get right over run over. So
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but but often though being a contrarian really is the way to go, right,
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you have to know when to as you said it, right, you
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have to be you have to know when to be a contrarian. You can't
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be a contrarian on you have to know when to be a contrarian. Right,
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So at this point is I guess, I guess you already answered the
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question. But you know this bowl market here has been going on quite a
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while. It's resistance more or less called where it was heading. Um,
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I guess I guess we sit back and we wait. Huh, Well,
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I can give you some specifics. Let me give you some specifics for those
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that are team they're playing the whole game. Um, right now, we
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have support in forty two seventy five, the forty three sixteen, forty three
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seventeen, that's the support we've been focusing on. As long as the market
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holds over that support, I'm looking to see if we generate a structure that's
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next going to pointing us to forty five hundred. So, assuming the market
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holds that support and gives me that next setup, I'm going to be looking
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to a rally to forty five hundred. Now that will be a very key
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point. If the market breaks down from that forty five hundred top in a
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five wave structure, that's likely going to tell me we're going back down to
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three thousand or lower. And I know that sounds wild, but that's the
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way the structure is set up right now. If at any point in Timmic,
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whether it's from the high we struck at about forty four forty eight,
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or if we go to forty five hundred and then get a five wave structure
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down that breaks support, that opens the door to a setup that gives us
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a crash later this year. Okay, However, however, if the market
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continues, Yeah, but these are the parameters. If the market continues to
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hold the support and all pull back door corrected, and we get the forty
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five hundred, and we pull back correctively again to move back over forty five
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hundred from there could be a key long entry for some that the like a
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lot of risk, because that's set up with pointing uts directly up to forty
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eight hundred pretty quickly. I guess it comes down to what Yogi Berra said
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in his Infinite Wisdom, when you come to a fork in the road,
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take it. Yeah, exactly, all right, so exactly, but you
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have to be able to recognize that that's the only issue. Okay, let's
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look at all right, dollar, what are we seeing with the dollar?
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I will say that I'm looking for again, it depends on your time frame.
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I'm looking for a rally, probably back up towards the one five,
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one oh six, one oh seven region on the dollar, and then I'm
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looking for a multi month pull back again. Effectively, what I'm seeing is
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that the market is going to chop within a range for it could be as
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long as the next five to ten years. I'm looking at a major range
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in the dollar. Now, yeah, fascinating. Well, you know,
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nobody a few people out there were really forecasting the strength in the dollar,
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and I guess in a large measure that's what really caused a short squeeze right
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in the dollar. You know, the old thing that the death of the
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dollar has been greatly exaggerated, right exactly. In my opinion, we were
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looking for a rally in the dollar. I didn't think we were going to
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go over one to eleven on the Dixie, but we went as high as
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one fifteen. But I was looking for you know, I was looking for
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a turn in the dollar at the time. It definitely spiked through my one
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to eleven right to the one fifteen and then spike right back down. So
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you know, I guess there was some type of a throw over move.
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But now I'm looking for, you know, pretty much a long term consolidation
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in the dollar. And I think that long term consolidation, I think it
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could take us at least at least three to five years. But if we
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get that long term consolidation, I think it'll set us up for another rally
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higher in the dollar and as we look out towards the end of this decade
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into the next. Okay, So now let's look at the metals markets.
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Um, you know, they never seek, they never fail to disappoint at
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some level or another. Right, pretty much? It definitely, it definitely
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has pulled back deeper than I had initially wanted to see, but the overall
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structure remains the same. It's basically a corrective pullback that should set up the
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next major, major bull move in the metals. Okay, So so we're
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in a consolidation there as well, then, right? Yes, Okay,
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So how much lower can it go? Could it go down to seventeen hundreds
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and mid seventeen hundreds or are we looking definitely not my not my expectation.
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I'm looking for us to bottom out, you know, I'm where in this
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nineteen hundred region, okay, in the nineteen hundred. Yeah, you know,
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like I'm not good at this. That's why I have people like you
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guys in because I just don't know. I'm the first to admit it,
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um, but I do. I do find it kind of interesting that that
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it could be so so misunderstood, you know, And so I will tell
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you. I'm not going to tell you that I know for certain there's nothing.
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I mean, I used to be a tax attorning many many years ago,
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and he needs to have a joke. There's only three definite things in
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life, and everybody knows two death taxes, and then we added and then
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we added tax reform. But you know that's an old tax. It's hardy
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to joke. But you know the thoughts of that. An there's nothing definite
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in whites, but we look at the market through a perspective of probabilities.
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Well that's really all it is. I'm a recovering attorney myself here, of
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you didn't then we ever talked about it. And look, it's like you
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say, you know there's certain things you know unknown you know who is it?
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Rumsfeld said, there is known unknowns, and there's unknown unknowns and right,
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we're dealing with more of those unknown unknowns than I think we ever have
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before. I don't know, we we always have, you know, it's
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it's a recency bias to some extent. We always have our chal oranges.
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There are always issues that come up in life and in the markets, and
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you know, yeah, the issues may be different, but overall the challenges
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are generally the same. Okay. So you know, I know you don't
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really talk about the war in Ukraine and all that, except as it maybe
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it affects affects markets. But you got any opinions on it? What's up?
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Yea? You know? I actually I actually um gave a I gave
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the keynote address at the Money Show in Las Vegas, and we had a
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question and answer session after I finished my speech, and there was an older
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gentleman I've just wrote about this. There was an old gentleman that that stood
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up and asked the question. He said, what's my opinion about what's going
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to happen in the market if there's a the session and cessation of fighting?
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So, you know, being a lawyer, I decided to answer his question
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with a question, and I asked him, well, what happened what do
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you think happened to the market when what happened on the day that Russia entered
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Ukraine? What happened on the exact day of the invasion of Ukraine. So
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he said to him, well, clearly the market went down. So I
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said, I think they're going to be a little shocked if I tell you
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the market began a ten plus percent rally on the exact announcement that Russia entered
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Ukraine. And I literally have to tell him, you know, you have
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to take your chin up off the floor. So you know, I wrote
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an article about this actually just today on Seeking Alpha, literally about this exact
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issue about you know, how events out there. We all have a certain
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expectation of what events are going to do to the market. Sometimes we're right,
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sometimes we're wrong. But why would we be wrong if on the day
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that Russia enters Ukraine that ain't they invade, the market's going to start a
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really strong rally. That makes no sense. Another example was when we had
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the October thirteenth CPI report, everybody was so certain that it's worth that expected
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we'd be dropping five percent. We actually rallied six percent off that morning low
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that day, So you know, the question is why does this happen?
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It's because we're looking in the wrong place. Events can be a catalyst to
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a market move, it doesn't necessarily mean that the substance of the event will
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provide the direction for that market move, and we see that so often.
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Yeah, and that's what people have an archlimic stuffy Yeah, and I will
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admit to Yeah, I'm no expert in it either, but certain things you
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just expect to happen. Who has it to? Eisenhower said, things are
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things are more like they are now than they've ever been before, right,
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that's right, right, Yeah, but Eisenhower said it, And I know,
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you know, so I love that we can really be somewhat humble about
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it, that we really can't tell, you know, with the specificity that
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so many people out there want, and that things you believe certain things,
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and then they turn out not to be true and you turn out to be
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wrong. Right, I mean, that's really what colors down to. So
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that's why we don't ollow events really well, well, we'll notice events to
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be potential catalysts, but the substance of the event really doesn't matter to us.
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Yeah, Yeah, And I totally totally agree with that I think.
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I think it just it's just we make assumptions in life, and then when
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the assumptions don't happen, we make excuses for the assumptions not happening, right
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and yeah, so but all right, any other markets, interest rates,
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interest rates, everybody's talking about interest rates. Well, we've been consolidating for
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quite some time here um and ultimately, I mean, I think maybe we
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can get one more fight down, maybe, but I'm looking for this to
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resolve higher as we look out towards the end of the year. I don't
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have any structure that is clear early telling me that I want to put a
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lot of money to it just yet. But the annual path seems suggesting that
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we're this consolidation will ultimately result in another leg higher over the next half a
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year. It's the year, all right, all right, I can I
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think that's reasonable. By the way, I apologize, that's in TLT,
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which means rates coming down. Yeah, all right. So then and then
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everything is tied in with that. Housing, the housing stocks and how closely
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you follow the ETF home or this sector. But they seem to have been
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surprisingly strong in light of what's going on. Housing. It really is based
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upon pockets. So you know, I'm not I don't follow housing that closely.
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So I really am not going to a pind okay, But but angerous
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rates are tied into it, right and yeah, so so I just enjoy
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the exercise of watching it and then seeing whether it comes true or not.
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But all right, so, uh, any other markets we should be looking
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at here that you think are at turning points or major inflection points. Let's
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take a peep um USO. We know, do the OYL WTI, so
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on and so forth. I think we're going to see lower lows in that
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complex. Um. I'm looking for a small rally first. Ideally, uh,
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you know, for example, the USO, i'd like to see US
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approaching maybe I'd like to maybe approach US seventy the seventy region on USO.
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But ultimately I think we're going to see one more lower low before any sustainable
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rally begins. But if I'm being at longer term, going out to twenty
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twenty four twenty twenty five, I would probably sink a boat right now on
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the complex. But I would like to see one more lower low, okay,
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and that gas any un g? I actually I don't I don't track
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Nat Gass one of my other analysts do. For what I remember, um,
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I think he's looking a little bit lower. But overall, if you're
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taking a very dowd approach, it's a bottom instructure. Okay, all right,
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Well, hey, interesting times ahead, that's for sure. I just
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tell us the best place to find you how we connect with you on the
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web at Elliott Way and Trader dot net with two l's and two ts Elliott
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Wave Trader dot net. All right, and the link is in the show
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notes to this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. You got a question
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for av shoot me an email k l at Kerry Lutz dot com. And
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while you're at the site, just to sign up for your free newsletter.
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Got one going out now I think you'll enjoy. By the way, if
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you're coming to the Rick Rules Symposium in booka raton Florida, seven twenty four
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to seven twenty seven of this year, I will be having hosting a little
22:12
meet up and love to see you there. Just shoot the email and I'll
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make plans to do it. Ave a pleasure. Thanks so much, as
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always for shedding some light and a varying Marquis situation. Thank you very much
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for having me back. Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network,
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your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial Survival
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Network dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,