Latest / Trend Watch / Episode 37: RFK Jr. Out, Immigration Down, and Pro-Natalism Rises in the US

Transcript

Episode 37: RFK Jr. Out, Immigration Down, and Pro-Natalism Rises in the US · Trend Watch

• 0:04
  SPEAKER_00: Ready to take a deeper look at where history, politics, and economics all intersect?
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: Well, then you've come to the right place.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: Each week,
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: here's where we pull back the headlines and focus on the big trends,
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: the stuff that actually shapes our future.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: Through the noise, we focus on the signal.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: I'm your host, Neil Howe, and this is TrendWatch.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: Today is August 28th, 2024, and this is Trend Watch.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome back, everyone.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_00: As usual, I have on my fellow analyst, Christian Ford.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: And so, Christian, how is your week?
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: Or in this case, I guess it's been two or three weeks, right?
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_01: It's been pretty good, Neil.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_01: I'm feeling rested.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_01: I had some vacation,
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_01: was traveling out in California,
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_01: spending some nice time in San Clemente,
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: Laguna Beach area.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: I knew it well.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: You know, I'm a California boy myself.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: But you have to be careful.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: These Easterners who go out there, sometimes they just never come back.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_01: You know, it was it was quite beautiful.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_01: I liked the lifestyle.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: Well, you be careful because, yeah, we we we knew a few of them.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: They just go crazy out there, you know.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: So you were in Laguna Beach, Dana Point, perhaps.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, right around that area.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: San Juan Capistrano, where the swallows come back every year.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, a lot of beautiful things right around there.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: Gorgeous place.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_00: Well, let's take us away from our California reverie.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: And let's get right into it.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: As always,
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to remind everyone who listens that this podcast is part of Demography Unplugged,
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: an overall publication we do on Substack.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: We
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: We do a lot of stuff there.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: We do videos.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: We cover the economy.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: We cover demography.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: We cover opinion trends.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: And that's where we break down everything under the sun.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: And we try to remain true to our title of Demography Unplugged, right?
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_01: That's right, Neil.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I always take this time to recommend that our
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_01: Listeners, go and check out some of our written work, some of the videos we've posted recently.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_01: You had a really interesting piece that actually got a lot of good engagement
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_01: recently just about how pro-natalism has really started to creep into American politics,
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_01: especially more on the GOP side.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if we should go into that piece a little.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: Well, it was J.D.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_00: Vance.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: I believe the title of the piece was on cat ladies and fertility rates, right?
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_00: So we kind of went into that.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: And I think my overall take on Vance is that his insight is a good one.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: This is a kind of natural agenda for the Republican Party.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: As I tried to demonstrate, perhaps with more data than I should have included in that piece, that
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: Republican-leaning voters do have more kids.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: They are more family-oriented, just about every subgroup of them, too.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_00: And what was really interesting, when you look at the data, it's by age.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: Even if you divide people up by age bracket,
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: by ethnicity,
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: by religion or lack thereof,
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: no matter how you divide people up,
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: the Republican share of that group always tends to have
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: more kids and is less likely to be childless.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: Now that, by the way, the causation is two ways, right?
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: In other words,
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: someone who tends more Republican or tend more Democratic might be likely to have
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: more kids.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_00: But I think also what happens is if you have a child or you don't,
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_00: you may likely,
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: for that reason,
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: gravitate toward one party or the other.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_00: See what I mean?
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: The causation works both ways.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: And I kind of walk people through that.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: And also Republican leaning Americans also tend to be more in favor of policies
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: that reinforce families and and favor people who have kids.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: This is another divide with Democrats, sort of in the general rubric of family values.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: So my point was, J.D.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_00: Vance has announced that he really wants to reorient the Republican Party around this issue.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_00: He's right.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: That's a natural constituency.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: And I think it's also true that pronatalism,
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: which has never been an issue in America historically because we generally had
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: pretty high birth rates here.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_00: is now in question,
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: as it has already been in so many other high-income countries,
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: even emerging market countries in East Asia,
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: Europe,
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: and you go down the list.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: Almost every high-income country now is beginning to recognize that they have
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: substantially below replacement rate fertility rates.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: And this is finally coming to America.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: And this has been an issue with with with a few Republicans in the past.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: The you know, the Marco Rubio's and the Mike Lee's.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: And we've we've talked about that in the past.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: But I think now it's it's becoming a little bit more center stage.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: And I would.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, go ahead.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_01: For these kind of, you know, a lot of they're talking about baby bonuses.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_01: These would have to be pretty massive for them to actually have an effect.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: Well, they do.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: And that's, of course, the big lesson.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_00: None of these means-tested refundable credits are going to do anything.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: They're not going to move the needle at all.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_00: And one big point I made was these have to be valid.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: Very, very large.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_00: That's the lesson from Poland, from Hungary, from some of these countries that actually had some success.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: Although I think the design of the program matters, too.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: But yes, the size has to be massive.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: And I think your next question is going to be, why does the size have to be massive?
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: And I think the reason is, is because...
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: the incentives not to have kids under our current system is massive.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: And this,
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_00: this is what I,
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: I often point out as sort of a preamble to,
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: to walking people through this argument,
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_00: right.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: Is that today,
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: historically,
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_00: traditionally,
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_00: one of the reasons people had kids,
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_00: this is obviously most true of all.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: And, and, and, and,
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_00: on farms and in agricultural reasons,
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: but you have kids so that they can take care of you as you get older.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, this is age old, right?
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_00: And what has happened, it's not just that we've moved off the farm.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_00: It's that we have designed a society that has these very expensive forms of social insurance, which
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_00: It subsidizes people in their old age through Medicare, Medicaid, SSI, Social Security.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_00: You go down all the list of senior programs,
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_00: but it leaves the cost of raising kids completely up to private people.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_00: It's just up to you.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_00: It's out of your own pocket.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: Well,
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: these people then grow up,
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: they pay taxes into these pay-as-you-go schemes,
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: which subsidize everyone's retirement,
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_00: whether you had kids or not.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_00: So you see what we've done?
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_00: If you don't have kids, you're a free rider.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_00: You know, you get the same benefits.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_00: So in order to make having a child as appealing as not having a child,
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_00: right,
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_00: and growing old essentially on other people's children,
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_00: and I hate to put it that way,
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_00: but I guess that's what it is,
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_00: you have to come up with a subsidy that is equivalently large.
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_00: So right now in our federal budget, we are almost at...
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_00: Half the non-interest budget, we will be at literally half, which will go to seniors by the early 2030s.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_00: That's...
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_00: You know, that's eight, nine, nine, greater than nine percent of GDP right there.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_00: And then you add deficits, right?
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_00: Deficits are naturally a senior favoring proposition because,
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_00: you're going to raise taxes later on on our kids.
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_00: So now if I have kids, well, they're going to be bearing those taxes.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_00: But if I don't have kids, well, I'm not really a party to this transaction, am I?
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_00: So I think the combination of a strong senior slant to our public subsidies with
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_00: large deficits is a very senior friendly set of incentives,
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_00: And I should say a set of incentives that favors the childless, right?
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_00: So that was the only point I'm trying to make.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_00: And so I was telling JD Vance,
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe the concept is good,
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_00: but if you really wanted to make a difference,
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_00: go up to,
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: $5,000 per child or how about $7,500 per child?
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_00: And it was interesting to see,
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_00: as always,
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_00: Kamala Harris,
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_00: she's very deft at this,
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_00: right,
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_00: came out and actually proposed something like that.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_00: not yearly, but as a one-time bonus.
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_00: Is that correct?
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_00: I believe it was around $6,000.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_01: But of course, Neil, as the trick of it is too, but how do you pay for these?
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_01: Isn't that also just going to be raising the deficit?
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_00: Well, yes.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_00: So that's the problem.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know, I also explained that to J.D.
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_00: Vance.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_00: Everything now in politics is all posturing because you're basically borrowing from
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_00: the kids to give whatever you are.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: I basically said if Trump's plan or if J.D.
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_00: Vance's plan or if Kamala Harris's plan with their one time baby bonus is to borrow
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_00: to get it,
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_00: there ought to be a notice included in every check.
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_00: It's basically saying, dear parents, be nice to your kids.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_00: Because all this money you're getting, they're going to have to pay back with interest.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_00: You know what I mean?
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, let's be honest.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: Let's have truthful accounting in our messages.
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_00: But this is really very far away from the kind of conversation the candidates of
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: either parties are having with voters,
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_00: correct?
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_00: Well, with that, let's get right into our weekly fair.
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_00: As always, there's plenty on the roster.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_00: First, we got market news, and then we'll be covering stories from around the world.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_00: Just to give you an upfront look, here are the stories we'll be looking at.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_00: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_00: drops out of the presidential race.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: and endorses Donald Trump.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_00: Another story.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_00: At the Democratic National Convention,
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_00: Kamala Harris and Tim Walz were officially nominated as the party's presidential
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_00: and vice presidential candidates.
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_00: Special Prosecutor Jack Smith has brought back to life the Justice Department's two
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_00: federal cases against Trump,
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_00: one for election interference and the other for mishandling classified documents.
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_00: A major new article in the journal Science demonstrates that energy policies that
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_00: don't raise energy prices rarely succeed in reducing carbon emissions.
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_00: So that'll be an interesting one we can comment on.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_00: According to DHS data,
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_00: that's Department of Homeland Security,
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_00: illegal border crossings are down,
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_00: perhaps due in part to new border patrol policies put in place by the Biden White House.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_00: Abroad,
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_00: Western nations and Russia exchanged dozens of prisoners in the largest such
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_00: prisoner swap since the end of the Cold War.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: The new right AFD party,
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_00: Alternative for Deutschland,
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_00: is expected to make big gains in Germany's upcoming state elections on Sunday,
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_00: possibly coming in first place in the eastern state of Thuringia.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_00: On Sunday,
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_00: Israel and Hezbollah exchanged the largest barrage of missiles yet in their
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_00: long-running undeclared war along the Israel-Lebanon border,
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_00: and Philippine and Chinese Coast Guard vessels
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_00: collide several times in the South China Sea, worrying U.S.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_00: national security experts about the threat of open conflict.
• 13:00
  SPEAKER_00: Wow, that's a big roster.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_00: So that's a lot.
• 13:05
  SPEAKER_00: Let's do the market and get into the stories.
• 13:09
  SPEAKER_01: All right, Neil, the S&P 500 closed down today 0.6% and over the last five market days is down 0.51%.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_01: As for the global Dow, that closed down today 0.27%.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_01: But over the last five market days is actually up 0.98%.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_01: As for the VIX, that closed at 17.14.
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_01: That's a little bit above where it's been the last few days.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_01: And as for the 10-year treasury,
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_01: that is at 3.846%,
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_01: which is a rise of 4.1 basis points over the last five days.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we see bonds and equities going the same direction value-wise.
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_00: And it's going to be interesting.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_00: We keep seeing that.
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_00: As for the VIX...
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_00: Anytime soon, are we going to see it back in those tranquil, I don't know, 11s and 12s?
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_00: That will probably be a while.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_00: So, okay.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_00: What else do we have?
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_00: Do we have any economic indicators, either at home or abroad?
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, we have a few.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_01: not too many because we recently did all about our indicators video,
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_01: which I would suggest our viewers go and watch.
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_01: But we did have S&P flash PMIs for August for the US.
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_01: Manufacturing fell from 49.6 to 48.0.
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_01: That marks two months of contraction.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_01: And as for services, we actually saw a slight rise from 55.0 to 55.2.
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_01: You know, that reading actually significantly beat expectations.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_01: We also have Conference Board Consumer Confidence for August, which rose from 101.9 to 103.3.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_00: You know, I think it's interesting.
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_00: We talk a little bit about tail of two indicators.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, one that we we covered in the all about the indicators was the CES versus CPS unemployment.
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_00: But another one is global versus a global versus the ISM.
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_00: For for the PMI.
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_00: That's really been deviating lately,
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_00: particularly on the I guess it's called services and global and simply called non
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_00: manufacturing in the in the ISM.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_00: But that's I don't know.
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_00: One of the others.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_00: We'll find out.
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see which gravitates to where.
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_00: So.
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_00: Anything abroad?
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 15:35
  SPEAKER_01: Only have a little bit from the Eurozone.
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_01: We also have flash PMIs.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_01: Manufacturing slightly declined to 45.6.
• 15:41
  SPEAKER_01: That's the lowest reading in eight months.
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, not doing well there.
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_01: But services rose to 53.3.
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_01: That's the strongest reading since April.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_01: And that was really just boosted by the Paris Olympics.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_01: So that probably will go down next month.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, I see.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_00: Sort of as a just a general.
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's especially just France.
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_01: France is bumping it up.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I noticed that politics was on hold.
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, everything was on hold for the Olympics.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: So.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_00: OK.
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_01: Let's go to our first story.
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_01: Let's plunge into it.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_01: Last Friday, RFK Jr.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_01: suspended his presidential campaign and endorsed Donald Trump.
• 16:23
  SPEAKER_01: Kennedy said that both he and Trump were victims of, quote, legal warfare by the Democrats.
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_01: He said he would withdraw his name from the ballot in swing states.
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_01: But Michigan and Wisconsin have both denied his request.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_01: According to senior Trump advisers,
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_01: RFK and former Democratic Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard will both be named honorary
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_01: co-chairs of Trump's presidential transition team if he wins the November election.
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_01: So,
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_01: Neil,
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_01: you never put a ton of faith in RFK Jr.,
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_01: but now that he's out,
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_01: do you think this helps Trump?
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_01: Does it not really matter?
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_01: What are your thoughts on this?