Latest / The Morning Edition / A national address, nailing down the budget, and Hastie’s ‘striking’ interview

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A national address, nailing down the budget, and Hastie’s ‘striking’ interview · The Morning Edition

• 0:00
  S1: My fellow Australians. By nature, we're an optimistic country, but
• 0:05
  S1: I understand that right now it's hard to be positive.
• 0:09
  S1: The war in the Middle East.
• 0:11
  S2: Okay, guys, I've got Paul and Shane right in the
• 0:13
  S2: studio with me. I want to hear from them on
• 0:15
  S2: a Winston Churchill scale of 1 to 10, how do
• 0:18
  S2: we rate the Prime Minister's address to the nation on
• 0:21
  S2: Wednesday night?
• 0:23
  S3: Well, it was no, I will fight them on the
• 0:25
  S3: service station front line. It was a very well short
• 0:29
  S3: of that tenor.
• 0:31
  S2: Yes. And Paul, what did you make of it?
• 0:34
  S4: Well, the Prime Minister's not Barack Obama. It wasn't quite
• 0:37
  S4: the Gettysburg Address, but it served an important purpose, I think,
• 0:42
  S4: for many voters out there, they haven't actually heard a
• 0:45
  S4: clear message from the government yet. It's felt messy. The
• 0:48
  S4: government was a little bit late to get its tone right.
• 0:51
  S4: There is a realization now that this will dominate the
• 0:53
  S4: government's agenda for weeks, if not months, probably months. And
• 0:57
  S4: so I think the government was keen to get its
• 0:59
  S4: voice into the public discourse for Albanese to be able
• 1:03
  S4: to say, I took it very seriously from the start
• 1:05
  S4: to condition for what comes next and to, you know,
• 1:09
  S4: reassure but also warn about what the future might hold.
• 1:13
  S4: The knock on the speech or the address will be
• 1:15
  S4: that by actually calling a national address early in the
• 1:18
  S4: morning and having a day of speculation about what might
• 1:20
  S4: be in it. It served the opposite effect to actually
• 1:22
  S4: instil fear. There's some anecdotal reports about queues at service stations,
• 1:27
  S4: which clearly was not the government's intent. There'll be days
• 1:30
  S4: of questions, and I imagine the Prime Minister will have
• 1:32
  S4: to justify his decision to to go forward with such
• 1:35
  S4: a big set piece that may not have had the
• 1:38
  S4: desired outcome.
• 1:39
  S2: Yeah. I mean, I didn't see it as sort of
• 1:42
  S2: badly as that. I just sort of thought that he
• 1:44
  S2: was under a bit of criticism last week for being
• 1:47
  S2: a bit flat footed in his response to the crisis,
• 1:50
  S2: and that they weren't sort of, you know, grasping the
• 1:53
  S2: the bull by the horns in terms of people's expectations.
• 1:57
  S2: And there is a bit of public anxiety out there,
• 1:59
  S2: maybe a lot of public anxiety. So I feel like
• 2:01
  S2: he was just kind of trying to reassure people and say, look,
• 2:04
  S2: keep calm, carry on, we're all over it. And there
• 2:07
  S2: might be some more drastic measures coming down the pike,
• 2:10
  S2: but we'll tell you when we get there or we'll
• 2:11
  S2: tell you well before we get there, we're going to
• 2:14
  S2: talk about that this week. I'm Jacqueline Maley, you're listening
• 2:17
  S2: to Inside Politics from the Age and The Sydney Morning Herald.
• 2:20
  S2: And if you haven't already guessed, I'm joined by our
• 2:22
  S2: chief political correspondent, Paul Satchell, and our special guest star
• 2:26
  S2: and favourite of the podcast, chief economics correspondent Shane Reisz. Gentlemen,
• 2:31
  S2: it's good to have you on board.
• 2:33
  S3: You had me at Special Guest Star. You didn't have
• 2:35
  S3: to embellish.
• 2:36
  S2: I know, I know, but I couldn't help myself such
• 2:39
  S2: my my cup overfloweth when you're.
• 2:41
  S3: On, you're only you're only human. That's right.
• 2:44
  S2: That's right. So the PM, as discussed, sort of shifted
• 2:47
  S2: more to crisis footing this week. And he's announced two
• 2:50
  S2: important measures. Let's just briefly cover off what they were. Paul.
• 2:54
  S4: Yeah. The first was the major announcement was a halving
• 2:57
  S4: in the fuel excise, which is the levy that's paid
• 3:01
  S4: on every litre of fuel. Is it $0.52?
• 3:03
  S3: $0.52 until it up until midnight. It's on April Fool's Day.
• 3:08
  S4: That's right. And this did actually have a pretty quick
• 3:11
  S4: tangible effect on petrol prices. There was a sense that
• 3:13
  S4: it might take days or weeks to kick in, but
• 3:15
  S4: there was an immediate reduction at a lot of service
• 3:17
  S4: stations of about 15 or $0.20 across the country, which
• 3:21
  S4: is good news, but fuel prices might just continue to increase.
• 3:25
  S4: And so this might offset slightly the increase, but is
• 3:28
  S4: not going to bring prices down over the next few
• 3:30
  S4: weeks as the supply crunch looms. And there's also a
• 3:34
  S4: question about whether, you know, reducing the price of fuel
• 3:37
  S4: actually counteracts the price signal, which is telling people not
• 3:41
  S4: to buy fuel when we need to conserve.
• 3:42
  S2: And we know that Shane Wright has very strong views
• 3:44
  S2: on that. I'm going to ask him about that in
• 3:45
  S2: a sec. And the PM, the PM also cut the
• 3:48
  S2: heavy vehicle road user charge. So basically that's helping out
• 3:51
  S2: truckies who you know, usually have to pay this charge
• 3:54
  S2: and are really doing it tough at the moment.
• 3:56
  S4: And one other big move just we should get in
• 3:58
  S4: is a $2 billion fund, which is. Which will allow
• 4:02
  S4: the government to effectively. Scour the globe with Australian firms
• 4:06
  S4: trying to bring oil into the country to underwrite purchases
• 4:09
  S4: of tankers. The spot market is obviously increasing oil prices
• 4:13
  S4: by two, three, four times.
• 4:14
  S3: And most people don't understand. There's a big difference between, say,
• 4:18
  S3: if I tell you that the the barrel price at
• 4:20
  S3: the moment, it's actually fallen a couple of bucks over
• 4:23
  S3: the last two days. It's about 100 US. But on
• 4:27
  S3: the spot market you are looking 130 140. There is
• 4:31
  S3: a big difference between these the contracted and the spot prices.
• 4:34
  S3: And this is what's really driving the announcement that they've.
• 4:37
  S2: Made because everybody's trying to scrambling to get oil right now.
• 4:40
  S2: Shane tell us you think the fuel excise cut is
• 4:43
  S2: very bad policy. Why do you think that? Please explain.
• 4:47
  S3: Well, I know for all those motorists out there who
• 4:49
  S3: are fueling up thinking, you beauty, I've saved $0.26 a litre,
• 4:53
  S3: which is about 19 bucks on 60 65 litre tank.
• 4:58
  S3: I get that, but that's the problem. You are saving
• 5:01
  S3: money at a time of inflation which will get spent
• 5:05
  S3: somewhere else. And this is what the reserve Bank will
• 5:07
  S3: be having. Kittens. Uh, in fact, I'm reliably informed there's
• 5:11
  S3: a birthing suite for the kittens kittens in Martin Place
• 5:14
  S3: at the moment, because this is in the wrong direction
• 5:17
  S3: for them. They want money being taken out of the economy.
• 5:20
  S3: The the big lift in petrol prices is doing that.
• 5:24
  S3: But you've actually given some of that back. And as
• 5:27
  S3: much as both sides of politics say, well, this will
• 5:31
  S3: only have a little bit of impact on demand, like
• 5:33
  S3: the classic supply and demand curve, you reduce a price,
• 5:37
  S3: the demand for something goes up. Even Jim Chalmers admitted
• 5:40
  S3: this week it'll probably have an impact 1 to 2%
• 5:44
  S3: increase in demand. His argument is that the big increase
• 5:48
  S3: in prices so far has cut demand by 10%, although
• 5:52
  S3: that's that's really at loggerheads with the argument that there's
• 5:55
  S3: been this huge surge in demand anyway. But we're in
• 5:59
  S3: We're in stupid times when people are racing out, filling
• 6:03
  S3: watering cans with fuel. So that's my real concern about
• 6:08
  S3: putting money back in. This is a hit to the
• 6:11
  S3: budget at the end of the day, at a time
• 6:14
  S3: of high inflation. And that's what will have the reserve
• 6:17
  S3: Bank concerned.
• 6:17
  S4: Your shift to a full on inflation hawk this week? Shane.
• 6:21
  S3: I suspect an inflation hawk, my friend.
• 6:23
  S4: I suspect the government would argue privately that the potentially
• 6:27
  S4: quite marginal effect on inflation that this measure might have
• 6:30
  S4: is outweighed by the imperative to use one of the
• 6:34
  S4: few levers the government has to provide cost of living relief.
• 6:37
  S4: Many other nations around the world are doing similar tax changes,
• 6:40
  S4: and I think the pressure on the government to be
• 6:42
  S4: seen to be doing something has outweighed the inflation concern.
• 6:45
  S3: And that's the difference between politics and economics. Politics.
• 6:48
  S2: I need to.
• 6:48
  S3: Be seen to be doing.
• 6:49
  S2: Apart from politics and economics. I want to bring in
• 6:51
  S2: psychology and just sort of sort of make. Oh, look,
• 6:54
  S2: I know, I know, I know it's a it's not
• 6:56
  S2: a science that you might recognize Shane, but.
• 6:59
  S3: It's doctor Mayalee, I love this. This switch.
• 7:02
  S2: Jacqueline Maley.
• 7:03
  S4: Psychoanalyze.
• 7:03
  S2: Me. Yeah. Um, no, I think that there's probably a
• 7:07
  S2: strong argument for the psychological effect that it has on
• 7:10
  S2: a population that's a little that was already feeling the pinch,
• 7:13
  S2: already feeling very anxious about rising interest rates. And they've
• 7:16
  S2: got a little bit of relief. So they might be
• 7:17
  S2: able to relax a little bit. Whether or not we
• 7:20
  S2: relax so much that we then go out and spend
• 7:22
  S2: and push up inflation, I don't know if I if
• 7:24
  S2: I think that that will be the psychological effect. Anyway,
• 7:28
  S2: I am interested in the kind of the impact you
• 7:30
  S2: think all of this is going to have on the budget,
• 7:32
  S2: because we were going to be having a pretty ordinary or,
• 7:36
  S2: you know, maybe a bit of a slightly ambitious reform
• 7:38
  S2: budget that Jim Chalmers had been talking about on May
• 7:41
  S2: the 12th. And now, obviously, global events have intervened. Chalmers
• 7:47
  S2: is sort of saying, on the one hand, that's not
• 7:49
  S2: going to stop us from, you know, making ambitious reform.
• 7:52
  S2: In fact, it's an even greater reason to go hard
• 7:55
  S2: on reform. But on the other hand, Shane, he seemed
• 7:58
  S2: to say this week that whatever extra money the government
• 8:03
  S2: or tax revenue that the government might reap from inflation
• 8:07
  S2: will basically be fed back to people via cost of
• 8:10
  S2: living measures, and that we might see even more government
• 8:13
  S2: money rolling around in the economy. Can you decipher any
• 8:16
  S2: of this for us?
• 8:18
  S3: Yeah, I can. I'll I'll attempt, but I won't do
• 8:20
  S3: it in a psychological manner. I'll do the outside my bailiwick,
• 8:24
  S3: that one. Yeah. Look, I think when he talks cost
• 8:26
  S3: of living. I'd be very wary thinking there's going to
• 8:29
  S3: be some sort of handout. I think that's there's real
• 8:32
  S3: resistance in Treasury because as much as like Chalmers has
• 8:37
  S3: been talking about, we're going to be making decisions later
• 8:40
  S3: in the budget cycle than we normally do. The starting
• 8:43
  S3: point was always, this is the budget we're going to
• 8:45
  S3: have to make changes on.
• 8:47
  S2: So do you mean cuts like are they going to
• 8:49
  S2: cut back the budget in some of those structural pressures
• 8:51
  S2: that we've talked about before?
• 8:53
  S3: Look, if I like the NDIS is clearly one area
• 8:55
  S3: where they're going to. They have to make savings. They
• 8:59
  S3: know that. And the the politics of the situation. What's
• 9:03
  S3: the number of seats that Albanese has in the House?
• 9:06
  S3: The make up of the Senate has not changed, despite
• 9:09
  S3: what's going on in the Middle East. So that core
• 9:12
  S3: piece of politics is still there, which means if you're
• 9:15
  S3: going to do it, you do it in this budget,
• 9:18
  S3: which is their first budget since the election. And even
• 9:21
  S3: on Thursday, Albanese has used his speech to the National
• 9:25
  S3: Press Club to really double down on. We are going
• 9:28
  S3: to be reforming in this, uh, in this budget.
• 9:33
  S4: First time he's used the same language as Chalmers in
• 9:35
  S4: this big press club speech on Thursday to say to
• 9:38
  S4: match the treasurer, to say this will be the most
• 9:40
  S4: ambitious budget yet. It's not the time to pull back.
• 9:42
  S4: It's the time to go forward.
• 9:43
  S3: And I think that's a really that's really important that
• 9:46
  S3: we we see the treasurer and the Prime Minister using
• 9:50
  S3: the same terminology clearly. So that tells you. Right. So
• 9:54
  S3: we know productivity reforms. There's going to be changes around
• 9:57
  S3: the tax system, particularly say in the corporate tax space.
• 10:01
  S3: I think you will see some sort of investment, uh,
• 10:05
  S3: system put in place to get businesses to become more
• 10:08
  S3: productive by investing in plant and, and kit. That's going
• 10:11
  S3: to happen. You will see savings. So the NDIS is
• 10:15
  S3: clearly in the target, but I think you'll see a
• 10:18
  S3: lot of smaller cuts like that. Try and spread out
• 10:22
  S3: a bit of the pain. And then you get into
• 10:25
  S3: the into the tax reform proper. That's where there's going
• 10:29
  S3: to be cost. Anything you do in that space. But
• 10:32
  S3: say the CGT that we've been talking about for it
• 10:35
  S3: feels like forever negative gearing. That issue hasn't disappeared. There
• 10:39
  S3: hasn't been a killing off of that by either the
• 10:42
  S3: treasurer or the prime Minister. So I think those things
• 10:44
  S3: are definitely still on the cards. But it's clear that
• 10:49
  S3: Chalmers so much is in flux right now trying to
• 10:53
  S3: nail down exactly what the budget will say is like
• 10:57
  S3: it is the most difficult budget to piece together. I
• 11:01
  S3: think since the late 2008, during the depths of the
• 11:05
  S3: global financial crisis, when Wayne Swan actually had to put up,
• 11:09
  S3: put out a separate update to the budget, just like
• 11:12
  S3: 8 or 10 weeks after a mid-year update. It's that difficult.
• 11:15
  S2: So it'll actually be exciting when we're in the lock up.
• 11:17
  S2: Genuinely exciting to see what's what's unveiled.
• 11:19
  S4: Big lock.
• 11:19
  S2: Up. What what will we make of the forward estimates though.
• 11:22
  S2: Like they're just they're going to be even more fictional
• 11:25
  S2: than usual don't you think?
• 11:27
  S3: Forward estimates are always there's always a bit of fiction.
• 11:29
  S3: There's always um, but this is it. Like how do
• 11:33
  S3: you predict like they haven't been able to predict the
• 11:36
  S3: iron ore price for the last 15 years. So how
• 11:38
  S3: you would predict what's going on with oil prices and
• 11:40
  S3: LNG prices? Look, I've got I've got a chocolate wheel here.
• 11:44
  S3: I'll spin it and well, it may do as good
• 11:46
  S3: a job as anything else.
• 11:47
  S4: And the contradiction on the messaging from the Prime Minister
• 11:49
  S4: on Thursday and Chalmers is that they're on the one hand,
• 11:53
  S4: talking up the cost saving element of the budget, the
• 11:55
  S4: productivity element. They want to take money out of the
• 11:58
  S4: economy because the inflation problem has not been fixed. But
• 12:01
  S4: on the other hand, they're already taking measures that go
• 12:04
  S4: against it. With the fuel excise cut, and they're forecasting
• 12:08
  S4: some more in the cost of living relief space, even
• 12:11
  S4: though we don't expect handouts. So it's a really tricky balance.
• 12:15
  S4: And on the tax reform question the treasurer has been
• 12:18
  S4: talking about the crisis being a reason to go harder
• 12:21
  S4: and faster. There are some others in the cabinet who
• 12:25
  S4: say well, okay, it might provide impetus to do more
• 12:28
  S4: around potentially investing in oil reserves or other measures that
• 12:32
  S4: actually address this crisis. But how does it add to
• 12:35
  S4: the case for fixing negative gearing or capital gains tax?
• 12:39
  S4: And I think people around the treasurer are now thinking
• 12:41
  S4: about how they sell those tax reform measures with a
• 12:44
  S4: different framing that addresses the current crisis. And one of
• 12:48
  S4: the one of the pieces of just one of the
• 12:50
  S4: thoughts around that is that you could pitch these measures
• 12:53
  S4: not just, as, you know, fiscally sound and and beneficial
• 12:58
  S4: to the housing market, but also as measures that kind
• 13:01
  S4: of win trust of voters, that push against the rise
• 13:04
  S4: of populism and that kind of instill this sense that
• 13:07
  S4: the government is making the society fairer and trying to
• 13:10
  S4: boost social cohesion. So putting a social cohesion, security, framing
• 13:14
  S4: around intergenerational equity.
• 13:16
  S2: I don't know, I don't know if any punter has
• 13:18
  S2: ever kind of accepted a tax reform on on the
• 13:20
  S2: grounds of social cohesion. I think that the fairness argument
• 13:24
  S2: is so, so much easier to make in the current environment. And,
• 13:28
  S2: you know, I think that the coalition I've said this
• 13:30
  S2: before on the podcast, I think the coalition is going
• 13:32
  S2: to be really hard pressed to argue against these tax
• 13:35
  S2: reforms that we think they'll make, you know, in the
• 13:38
  S2: current environment, with housing affordability being where it is. And
• 13:41
  S2: as you say, with the rise of one nation and
• 13:43
  S2: the the sort of, I think the starting point of
• 13:45
  S2: many people who are switching their votes to one nation,
• 13:48
  S2: which is the system's kind of rigged against me no
• 13:50
  S2: matter how hard I work, you know, I pay my taxes,
• 13:53
  S2: I'm trying to raise my family and I just can't
• 13:55
  S2: get ahead. And, you know, so burn the whole thing down.
• 13:57
  S2: I want to I want to ask you guys about
• 13:59
  S2: sort of fuel security and energy security because we have
• 14:03
  S2: touched on this before, but I just wonder if we're
• 14:05
  S2: going to be having a national debate sort of into
• 14:07
  S2: the future about what our fuel security and energy security
• 14:13
  S2: will look like because and will it just get everyone
• 14:15
  S2: to double down on their positions? So people who are like, look,
• 14:19
  S2: this shows more than ever, this whole crisis shows that
• 14:23
  S2: fossil fuels are an unreliable source of energy. Other people
• 14:28
  S2: will say, all it shows is that we need to
• 14:30
  S2: be mining and exploiting the fossil fuels, including oil reserves
• 14:34
  S2: that we have here in Australia. Shane, what do you
• 14:37
  S2: think about where the debate's going to go on that?
• 14:39
  S3: Well, there's two points. One is that the term sovereign capability,
• 14:43
  S3: which is being tossed around, they are the two most
• 14:46
  S3: frightening words I've been listening to for some time, because
• 14:50
  S3: it can mean all manner of things. Are we going
• 14:51
  S3: to start building our own refinery? Like if you listen
• 14:55
  S3: to some people in that space, that's where you end up.
• 14:59
  S3: You've got the drill, drill, baby drill types. Out. There
• 15:02
  S3: you go. But that oil needs to be refined. And
• 15:06
  S3: we don't have the facilities on there. There are some
• 15:08
  S3: if you once you go down this. We have to
• 15:10
  S3: have great supply lines. We have to produce stuff domestically,
• 15:14
  S3: which this government has been talking about, uh, and their policy.
• 15:17
  S3: The future made in Australia is that policy. The Nats
• 15:21
  S3: and the Liberal Party are still are talking the same game,
• 15:24
  S3: but there hasn't been the whole discussion of, well, this
• 15:27
  S3: means big economic choices by this country that have to
• 15:30
  S3: be made. No one's been up front about the amount
• 15:33
  S3: of cash that we'd have to go into. The fact
• 15:35
  S3: that you don't have enough people to do what you
• 15:37
  S3: want to do. There will be some areas of the
• 15:39
  S3: economy cut off if you go down that path.
• 15:41
  S2: As in, if you go down the path of exploiting
• 15:43
  S2: oil resources or trying to more in Australia.
• 15:47
  S3: Not just like the private market is the one that's
• 15:51
  S3: deciding whether to explore for oil or not in this country.
• 15:54
  S3: And for the last ten years, they've gone, no, there's
• 15:57
  S3: no case at the moment. There is, however, and we've
• 16:00
  S3: seen some great data in the last like even the
• 16:03
  S3: last 2440 eight hours about EVs. For instance, the. There
• 16:08
  S3: have been increases in EV. The car prices. The second
• 16:11
  S3: hand prices for EVs. While prices for petrol driven cars
• 16:15
  S3: are falling sharply, consumers have gone. There's a great big
• 16:19
  S3: price signal. That's what I'll do. And there are some,
• 16:22
  S3: especially on the right, who are saying, oh, we'll have
• 16:24
  S3: a culture war about petrol versus EVs. The EVs are
• 16:28
  S3: winning that culture war because it's an economic war and
• 16:31
  S3: they just can't win it.
• 16:33
  S2: It's a hip pocket war. Paul, what do you think?
• 16:36
  S4: This crisis has raised up a debate around the globe
• 16:40
  S4: about energy security and the way in which green energy
• 16:43
  S4: and renewables could bolster that? Because obviously solar and wind
• 16:47
  S4: farm is not affected by, uh, for many thousands of
• 16:51
  S4: kilometers away. You heard the European leader, Ursula von der Leyen,
• 16:56
  S4: make this point in Parliament last week, you had the
• 16:58
  S4: IAEA director make the same point. I suspect the Labour
• 17:02
  S4: government will start leaning into that argument when this crisis
• 17:05
  S4: starts to subside. It would be seen as political point
• 17:09
  S4: scoring or perhaps slightly ideological, to be leaning too heavily
• 17:12
  S4: on that argument, given the ire and conservative ranks towards
• 17:17
  S4: the green energy agenda of this government. But I think
• 17:19
  S4: they will lean into that and come in months and
• 17:21
  S4: years to say we are on the right path, and
• 17:24
  S4: that crisis proved we're on the right path. On the
• 17:27
  S4: other hand, as Shane mentions, the coalition will argue that
• 17:30
  S4: we need to be doing more here to give ourselves
• 17:32
  S4: the ability to use our own oil. So I one
• 17:35
  S4: would suspect that it will give more weight to an
• 17:39
  S4: energy abundance agenda in general.
• 17:41
  S2: Yeah. Isn't it? I mean, isn't the best argument putting
• 17:44
  S2: climate change aside because that has become an I. It's
• 17:47
  S2: become a culture war. I mean, ridiculous as that is,
• 17:50
  S2: it just seems like a technology argument to me because
• 17:52
  S2: fossil fuels are like the 18th century kind of technologies.
• 17:55
  S2: They're old, you know, old school, you have to invest
• 17:59
  S2: enormous resources pulling them out of the ground. You have
• 18:02
  S2: to put them on rusty old tankers, ship them all
• 18:04
  S2: the way across the world. And the technology for wind
• 18:07
  S2: and solar just seems, I don't know, more contemporary and easier.
• 18:12
  S3: You're an elite, aren't you?
• 18:13
  S4: You sound like. You sound like Malcolm Turnbull.
• 18:15
  S2: Technology, not taxes. I know people who sound like Malcolm Turnbull.
• 18:19
  S4: People would make not dissimilar arguments about. And people have people,
• 18:24
  S4: you know, who are who are, you know, advocates of
• 18:26
  S4: efficiency in the economy and who are kind of productivity
• 18:29
  S4: Hardheads would have said similar things about our nickel refining capacity,
• 18:33
  S4: our copper ore making capacity, aluminium. And you see the
• 18:37
  S4: Labour government now in a really substantial shift to pump
• 18:41
  S4: billions of dollars into these sectors to keep them alive
• 18:45
  S4: against the wishes of economic hardheads, because according to the
• 18:49
  S4: Labour government and you hear this, see this agenda on
• 18:51
  S4: the right as well, through people like Andrew Hastie, if
• 18:53
  S4: we lose these industries, we lose our ability to fend
• 18:56
  S4: for ourselves in time of war.
• 18:58
  S2: Yeah, that's kind of a national security argument, which I
• 19:01
  S2: suppose you can divorce a little bit from an economic argument,
• 19:04
  S2: but I mean, you know, the energy resources and, you know,
• 19:08
  S2: the form of energy that we use is just, it
• 19:10
  S2: seems to me an entirely an economic argument or it
• 19:13
  S2: should be. I want to talk about the US alliance
• 19:16
  S2: because Albanese has had to sort of tread such a
• 19:21
  S2: fine line on this one. We saw the Canadian Prime minister,
• 19:24
  S2: Mark Carney, come out with some really quite strong comments
• 19:27
  S2: against President Trump and the Iran war here in Australia.
• 19:30
  S2: We're not doing anything near to that. The Prime Minister
• 19:33
  S2: went on 730 this week and sort of talked about
• 19:36
  S2: he made his strongest comments to date. So he talked
• 19:38
  S2: you know, he said people want to see how this ends.
• 19:40
  S2: He wanted to see a de-escalation, a time frame or
• 19:43
  S2: a clearer objective. And then also in the next sentence
• 19:45
  S2: sort of said that the objectives had been achieved, whatever
• 19:48
  S2: that means. Paul, do you see this as a hardening
• 19:50
  S2: of rhetoric? I mean, there are some people out there
• 19:52
  S2: who might who might actually want the government to, to
• 19:55
  S2: call this for what it is, you know. Which is a,
• 19:59
  S2: you know, a very erratic, non strategic and increasingly sort
• 20:03
  S2: of terrifying war.
• 20:05
  S4: Yeah. The Albanese is obviously hardened his rhetoric over the
• 20:08
  S4: last fortnight. It started in a press conference I think
• 20:11
  S4: about two weeks ago, where he made the point of
• 20:14
  S4: saying that largely the US's objectives in this war have
• 20:18
  S4: been to varying extents achieved. And he urged Trump to de-escalate.
• 20:24
  S4: And then this week, you've seen him also call for
• 20:28
  S4: greater certainty around the end game. Uh, and he also
• 20:33
  S4: made the point quite firmly that Australia is not obligated
• 20:36
  S4: to be more heavily involved in this war because we
• 20:38
  S4: weren't consulted by Trump. So echoing some of the language
• 20:41
  S4: out of European allies, less sharp, uh, language, but similar sentiment.
• 20:47
  S4: And I think he would be channelling, uh, what he
• 20:50
  S4: believes to be popular sentiment on that.
• 20:52
  S2: Yeah. So he's, he's sort of got a like, tread
• 20:55
  S2: a fine line, doesn't he? Because he wants to be
• 20:57
  S2: seen in in step with, I think, the Australian public,
• 21:00
  S2: which is kind of horrified by what's happening and what
• 21:03
  S2: Trump's doing. But at the same time, you can't sort
• 21:05
  S2: of openly piss off the Trump administration unnecessarily.
• 21:10
  S3: Well, that's that's the price of the Australian-American alliance. Like
• 21:13
  S3: if you if you wanted an Australian prime minister to
• 21:16
  S3: have a huge crack at the US president, let's go
• 21:19
  S3: back to Gough Whitlam. And that ended exceptionally well. Yeah,
• 21:22
  S3: that that sort of tension that that is not where
• 21:25
  S3: like people talked about how Andrew Hastie was up front. Yes.
• 21:30
  S3: Talking for everybody. Go. Hold on. Here's a shadow shadow
• 21:35
  S3: industry spokesman for the opposition which is nowhere near government.
• 21:38
  S3: That person can say stuff. A prime minister, the government,
• 21:43
  S3: the government cannot.
• 21:44
  S2: And I wouldn't. I don't think the Australian public would
• 21:46
  S2: necessarily want to see the Prime Minister, you know, have
• 21:48
  S2: a have an open crack at Trump, whatever their views
• 21:50
  S2: about him. But you mentioned Hastie there. He made those
• 21:52
  S2: comments on insiders last Sunday. So if any listeners hadn't
• 21:55
  S2: watched and missed them. He basically said.
• 21:58
  S5: This is a bad. I think this was a huge miscalculation. Um,
• 22:02
  S5: Iran has managed to pretty much hold the whole world
• 22:06
  S5: economy to ransom. And because we're at the end of
• 22:09
  S5: a very long supply chain, we're going to experience pain now.
• 22:12
  S5: We were already.
• 22:12
  S2: And he said, I don't know why we went in there.
• 22:15
  S2: And he said, you know, I'm a close friend of
• 22:16
  S2: the United States, but I think we should be able
• 22:18
  S2: to ask hard questions. And as you say, it's sort
• 22:21
  S2: of easy for him to say that because he's like
• 22:22
  S2: a renegade sort of on the fringes of the Liberal
• 22:25
  S2: Party with very obvious intentions to become its leader. He
• 22:29
  S2: did say some stuff about tax policy. So, Shane, I'm
• 22:32
  S2: really interested in what you have to say on that
• 22:34
  S2: because he said that basically he was open to the
• 22:38
  S2: Liberals should be open to property tax reform and increasing
• 22:40
  S2: tax on gas companies. This is like a shot across
• 22:44
  S2: the bow of, you know, neoliberal economic policy, isn't it.
• 22:48
  S3: He's been in this space for some time because the
• 22:51
  S3: electorate he represents on the outer suburbs of Perth is yeah.
• 22:56
  S3: Interest rate, mortgage pain central. Yeah. So he and remember,
• 23:01
  S3: there aren't that many of those in the Liberal Party
• 23:03
  S3: left after the disaster of the last election campaign. So
• 23:07
  S3: he has always been a bit more open in terms
• 23:10
  S3: of the argument around CGT and negative gearing, because that
• 23:14
  S3: is what he's hearing from his community. And he he
• 23:18
  S3: is not nearly as an ideologue around taxation or around
• 23:24
  S3: the propertied class as some other members of of his
• 23:27
  S3: of his opposition.
• 23:28
  S2: Like the leader, the leader of.
• 23:30
  S3: Like the leader. Yeah. That's right. Like every time he, we,
• 23:34
  S3: he you hear from Angus Taylor it's you don't if
• 23:37
  S3: you don't, you don't put a tax on something if
• 23:40
  S3: you want more of it, except you've got this overwhelming
• 23:42
  S3: economic argument by people who know far more about the
• 23:45
  S3: Australian housing market and the taxation system of it, saying
• 23:49
  S3: the interaction of CGT and negative gearing is an issue.
• 23:53
  S3: It's not the driving issue, but it's a factor in
• 23:55
  S3: the way that we've got higher priced houses in this
• 23:57
  S3: country and you're into the intergenerational issue. Hastie understands that
• 24:02
  S3: it's partly because he is younger, as well as representing
• 24:05
  S3: an outer suburban seats. He has a young family and
• 24:07
  S3: he has sees it up front.
• 24:09
  S2: He gets it. Yeah, I just think that's fascinating because
• 24:12
  S2: it's like he's on the side of the people. And
• 24:14
  S2: and he said that Paul, he said that very explicitly.
• 24:17
  S2: He said, we need to overhaul the whole system.
• 24:19
  S5: We either fix the system or it's torn down by
• 24:22
  S5: people like Pauline Hanson. No one's going to reward us
• 24:24
  S5: for a final last stand for neoliberal politics. Okay, um,
• 24:29
  S5: there's no medal for that.
• 24:31
  S2: What did you make of those comments? Because he's not
• 24:33
  S2: talking like a classic liberal. He's not talking like Angus
• 24:36
  S2: Taylor is talking. He's really going against the grain of
• 24:39
  S2: the entire Liberal Party, isn't he?
• 24:41
  S4: Yeah. I think this interview was really striking and will
• 24:44
  S4: be seen as an important moment in Hastie's trajectory wherever
• 24:48
  S4: he lands it. It exemplified where the new generation of
• 24:52
  S4: liberals want to take the party. People like Andrew Hastie,
• 24:55
  S4: Keith Wolahan, backbenchers like Garth Hamilton, Ben Small, some of
• 24:59
  S4: whom will not be very well known to our listeners.
• 25:01
  S4: They're kind of frothing at the mouth, wanting the party
• 25:04
  S4: to talk to different groups in the Australian public. Some
• 25:08
  S4: of them are much more right wing than are traditional
• 25:10
  S4: liberals in some ways, but they also want to be
• 25:11
  S4: speaking to the non-asset owning class. They also want to
• 25:15
  S4: question the coalition's attachment, really fervent attachment to Israel and America.
• 25:21
  S4: They want to open up new debates on national identity.
• 25:25
  S4: And what Hastie is doing by questioning Trump's agenda in
• 25:30
  S4: the Middle East is opening up, opening up a new
• 25:34
  S4: nationalistic agenda for the Liberal Party, which in Hastie's vision
• 25:40
  S4: would be much more Australia focused than US focused at
• 25:44
  S4: this point, given the destabilising effect Trump is having across
• 25:48
  S4: the West and given the disregard with which he treats allies.
• 25:51
  S4: So you saw in that interview a leading voice in
• 25:55
  S4: this new generation of conservatives who are, you know, channeling
• 25:59
  S4: what you see in in other populist right movements across
• 26:04
  S4: the world. Giorgia Meloni, uh, others in Europe saying the
• 26:09
  S4: world is pretty fractious. We need to start fending for ourselves,
• 26:13
  S4: building up our military, focusing on on getting a better
• 26:17
  S4: lot for the working class, really looking at different coalitions
• 26:21
  S4: with this Australia first lens.
• 26:23
  S2: HMM. It's really interesting to me because it's almost like
• 26:25
  S2: a generational conflict within the Liberal Party, but it's also
• 26:28
  S2: traditionalists against sort of populist influenced firebrands of the conservative. Right.
• 26:35
  S2: It's fascinating. I don't think Andrew Hastie's going anywhere. It
• 26:38
  S2: seems like he's only sharpening his claws. So we will
• 26:41
  S2: keep following this. Shane, thank you so much for coming on.
• 26:45
  S2: I hope you guys fill up your tanks with ease,
• 26:47
  S2: your petrol tanks and whatever other tanks you might have
• 26:50
  S2: with ease this weekend, this Easter long weekend.
• 26:54
  S3: Well, that's. If we can afford the, uh, expensive chocolate. Uh,
• 26:58
  S3: because remember, cocoa prices are still very, very high from
• 27:01
  S3: a global shortage.
• 27:02
  S2: I know, I feel like that's really gone off the agenda.
• 27:05
  S2: The Easter Bunny is not immune from inflation.
• 27:09
  S3: No, you don't want an inflated Easter bunny.
• 27:12
  S2: You do want an inflated Easter bunny egg basket, though.
• 27:16
  S3: Absolutely.
• 27:17
  S2: Thanks very much, fellas. See you soon.
• 27:19
  S4: See you soon.
• 27:20
  S3: Cheers, Jackie.
• 27:25
  S2: You can read all of our political news on our
• 27:27
  S2: websites theage.com.au or smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced by Kai
• 27:35
  S2: Wong with help from Debbie Harrington. Our executive producer is
• 27:38
  S2: Tammy Mills, and our podcast are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy
• 27:42
  S2: and Tom McKendrick. Before you go, follow Inside Politics and
• 27:46
  S2: leave a review for us on Apple or Spotify. I'm
• 27:49
  S2: Jacqueline Maley, thank you for listening.