Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - Oscars Betting Preview

Transcript

The Favorites - Oscars Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's the favorite podcast presented by FanDuel. The NBA season
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: is kicking into gear, and there's no better place to
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: get in on the action than FanDuel. I love betting
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: with FanDuel because their app is safe, secure and easy
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: to use. And when I when I get get paid fast.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Plus FanDuel let's me jump in on the action anytime
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: with live betting during games. So download the FanDuel app
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: today to start making every moment more. Must be twenty
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: one or older and in select states gambling problem call
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: rg in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, Virginia,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: and Ohio one eight hundred, next step or text next
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: step to five three three four two in Arizona one
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: or a visit CCPG dot org slash chat in Connecticut
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred and nine with it in Indiana, visit
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: KS gambling help dot com. In Kansas one eight seven
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: seven seven seven zero stop in Louisiana. Visit MD gambling
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: help dot org in Maryland one eight seven seven eight
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: hope and Why, or text Hope and Why four six
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: seven three six nine in New York one eight hundred
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: five two two four seven zero zero in Wyoming, or
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: visit one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: I am Chat Milman, chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Massive Massive show today one of my favorite shows of
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: the entire year, maybe the most important betting event until
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: we get back to NFL season. I'm going to introduce
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: our guest in a minute, but first let me bring
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: on my co host, my bff, my companion, Michael Padre,
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: mister Simon Hunter professional better, Hello Selingman, Hello hot Chad.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: How you doing, brother, dude? I'm doing better than you.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: That's true. I've been listening to way too much nine
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Inch Nails the last couple of days. So what have
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: I become? My sweetest friend? Oh man, So listen, we
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: have a huge show today and we're bringing in Michael Lasker,
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: a friend of the pod because of our former Action
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Network colleague and still close friend to me. Matt Mitchell
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: is He Gomez Lasker talent manager extra ordinaire in Hollywood.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: He is a Hollywood insider. He is one of the
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: most powerful people in Hollywood. If you are watching television,
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: if you are going to movies, if you like to laugh,
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: if you think someone who's funny, chances are Lasker represents them,
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: knows them, probably gave them their best ideas. Here's the
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: most important thing right now. Every year Last Wood comes
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: on because nobody is better at talking about the Oscar
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: and giving us insight into the Oscars. The guy is
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: an encyclopedia Oscar savant. Michael Lascar is on the show. Brother.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: I'm so glad I'm back. First, First of all, I
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: think this is my fourth time, and I'm honored to
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: be back. So I'm almost said that five time. You know,
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: we're gonna get you a coach, We're gonna get you.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: We're gonna get you hoodie like Simon has. Every Everything
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: you said was very very sweet. Very little of it
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: is true. You're you're ascribing way too much power and
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: uh and so forth to me, But but it's wonderful.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: We'll be back. As you guys know, this is my
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: favorite time of the year. The Oscars are my Christmas
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Sonica wrapped up all into one. I unabashedly love the
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: Academy Awards. I make no I don't have to justify that.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: I think the Academy Awards are fun. I've loved it
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: my whole life, and that's a pleasure to be back
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: and talk about what I think is not only turn
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: out to be a great movie year, but has been
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: a great Oscar race here. And while it feels like
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: there's favorites, you know, pun intended, I still think there
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: could be some surprises on Sunday. I'm also gonna say
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: many many times that my colleague, another manager at Mosaic
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: where I work, represents Daniels. His name is Josh Rodnick,
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: and he's represented them their whole career and incredible success story.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: So I don't want people to think I'm playing favorites.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: I love that movie. I will mention it many times.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: But I understand there's bias, but that's okay. We all
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: have our own biases. So just for the record, well,
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: you're talking about the guys who directed everything everywhere, all
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: at once, which we're totally going to get to. I agree. Look,
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: I've become so in love with this episode of the
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: podcast that I made more effort to watch a lot
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: of the movies this year, and I have more opinions
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: than I ever have. Also, I think what's interesting is
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: even like, it's interesting that the Oscars has become the
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: kind of thing where, you know, and we've talked about this,
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: the big movies aren't the ones that end up getting
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: all the nomination. I think everything everywhere, all at once
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: is a little bit of an outlier, still a small
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: independent movie from a you know, quote unquote independent production company.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: But Top Gun is like the biggest, biggest hit of
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: the year, and it's got some nominations. But that's a rarity. Now, Well,
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: what's interesting about this year? You know Tom Shrek, who
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: is no longer alive, Rest in peace. He was the
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: President Academy who after the two thousand and eight year
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: when The Dark Knight did not get nominated, that was
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: the last year there were five nominees for Best Picture.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: He was the person who pushed through let's go back
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: to ten nominees. There were ten Best Picture nominees in
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: the thirties and forties. Let's do that. And I think
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: there's been years where a lot of movies were nominated,
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: not to ever name names they did not deserve to
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: be nominated for Best Picture this year, if you think
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: about it, is epitomizing what Tom Shrek and those who
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: those governors at the time had in mind. Because you're right,
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is a cornucopia of you know that
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: the array of films. Top Gun biggest movie of the year,
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: actually the Avatar biggest movie of the year, Top Guns
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: second biggest movie the year. Elvis made a ton of money,
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: everything everywhere broke one hundred million worldwide. You've got foreign films,
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: You've got Triangle of Sadness, you've got all quiet on
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: the Western front, You've got streamers. So if you look
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: at the ten nominees this year, it's really a phenomenal
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: range of movies. And the thing that this is a
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: side tangent. We wouldn't have to cover it today, but
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: I think in the post pandemic world, you know, a
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: lot of these movies have gone to streaming faster, like
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Tar and Banshees have in a Sharin in the older
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: era would have quietly all made sixty seventy eighty million bucks.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: They would have played for four straight months. Adults would
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: have gone and seen them. But they all hit streaming
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: so fast, you know, I mean before I looked up
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Banshees on HBO Max and it's like, Okay, I guess
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: I'll just watch on HBO Max tonight. So but I
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: think that you look at those ten movies and I
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: think this is what the Academy had in mind, you know,
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: because there is a great variety and there's still a
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: lot of you know, it's anybody's anybody's race. Still, I
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: agree with you on the streaming huge point, like, that's
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: how I ended up seeing Banshees. It's how I ended
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: up starting Elvis and stopping Fableman's and stopping But we'll
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: get to that before we do that. Before we do that,
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: I have been talking about the game Time ticket app
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: for the past couple of weeks. It is the fastest
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: growing ticketing app in the US. I love it. I've
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: talked about how much I love it. I genuinely use
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: it all the time. And if you're looking to get
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: out to any NBA or NHL games this week or
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: even a concert, Gametime has amazing last minute deals on
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: tickets to all of these. I'm actually going to open
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: the game Time app right now from my house. If
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: I wanted to hit New York City this week. You
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: know what I would do right now, I'd go to
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: the Big East Men's basketball tournament happening at MSG tomorrow.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: I can get tickets for thirteen bucks. That's how easy
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: it was. No matter where you live, download the game
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Time app, get out and have some fun this week.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: You deserve it. And your candeem comb. You can redeem
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: code favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase. Terms
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: apply again. Just download the app, enter code favorites for
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: twenty dollars off. Download Game Time today, last minute tickets,
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: lowest price guaranteed. Lasker, thanks for you, can I can
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: I make a request? I'm sorry to roupt you. Yeah,
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: seeing you read that ad when I come over the
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: fifth time, I want to read some ads next time. Okay,
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: just getting me like in the system. Listen. I was
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: going to apologize for having to subject you to such
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: crass commercialization. I know I understand other podcast business. You're
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: an artist. You're an artist like you know you work
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: in the arts. Okay. Um. I have so many movies
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: that I loved, so many movies that I think were
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: what excited you this year. I think I think Banshee
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: is a ven sharing. Yeah, you've been on the Banshee's
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: train over huge Banshees fan the movie we're going to
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: talk about that, I think God I would like to
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: get Simon's take on this. I saw the menu to
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: you about this. It might be my favorite movie of
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: the year other than Top Gun, my favorite movie of
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: the year. I thought it was tight, brilliant, great commentary,
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: much better than Triangle Sadness. I think we should like
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: I all of a sudden, I feel like we're getting
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: way ahead of ourselves. Simon, I do want to bring
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: you in for a second. Do you have a movie
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: this year that you loved that you were looking forward
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: to seeing how it performs in the Oscars? I would
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: say for visually stunning in the movie that made me
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: feel the most, I would say All Quiet on the
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: Western Front. That movie was one of those where I
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: kind of knew what it was going in but it's
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: one of those I didn't watch any previews. I hadn't
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: heard much about it at the time, and again it's
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: another streaming movie, right, That's one of those where it
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: was just on so I checked it out, and man's
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: that's one of those where I feel like not just
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: because of what's going on Ukraine. It hit home more,
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: but it's more of like, these young men are filled
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: with so much happiness and joy and then you just
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: see how that quickly subsides and it changes everything. Right,
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: So that was one of those where I thought that
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: would probably win. But this is why I want to
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: ask him about the fact that you have guys like
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: Steven Spoelberg going up to Tom Cruise and telling him
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: he saved movies. Is that going to be factored into
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: what's happening this year where this is again, I mean
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: just ten years ago, we wouldn't have seen I feel
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: like Maverick in this kind of position where this is
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: one of these movies where you can say whatever you
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: want about it, you know, if you didn't like it,
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: whatever it is. I feel like most people liked the movie.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: It was very nostalgic, that was well done. But the
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: fact that it really did spark people going back to
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: the movie theater feels like a real thing. So I'm
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: interested in your take on that. If that's going to
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: factor into them, well, I think we will. A couple
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: of things. One I loved All Quiet on the Western Front.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: I thought that movie was an absolute masterpiece. Edward Burger,
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: who directed it, was not nonated for director or you know,
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: there's no way of knowing, but I think a lot
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: of people think that Ruben Ocelin, who directed Triangle Satin,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: has kind of took his spot. I mean, he was
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: completely deserving as well. I think if Edward Burger had
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: been nonated for director and then the movie would have
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: had ten noms, not nine, I think. I mean, I
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: think it's going to win a fair amount of Oscars
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: on Sunday. We'll get to that. I loved it. I
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: thought I've never seen the original which also won Best
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: Picture or did win Best Picture in like nineteen thirty two.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: But that's I believe, like the most famous book like
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: ever written in Germany because what it's about. Obviously, I
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: thought the movie was absolutely stunning, the top gun stuff. Yeah,
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, look, there's obviously the favorite going in again,
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: excuse the pun. The favorite for Sunday is everything everywhere
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: right now, which I still believe will win. But one
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: thing you have to remember is that the Academy has
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: a for Best Picture, has a preferential voting system, and
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: I'm always trying to remind myself what that means. But
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: my understanding of it, you guys can correct me, is this. See,
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: because there's ten nominees, they did not want whoever got
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: the most votes to win Best Picture, because that meant
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: a movie could get like twenty percent of the votes
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: and win Best Picture. They didn't think that would make sense.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: So instead they have these like threshold numbers, and basically
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: what they do is they first count every most the
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: movie that gets the most ballots at number one, and
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: then if that doesn't hit a certain number, then they
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: go to all the other ballots and they figure. So
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: they count all the ballots, and you have the ballot.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: You know, let's say everything everywhere is number one on
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: a certain amount of ballots. Once it's not number one,
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: they go to the next batch of ballots and they
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: count the next number one. So there's a lot of belief.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: I talked to an executive yesterday who was like, no,
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: Top Gun's gonna win because at the end of the day,
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: everything everywhere could get like a lot of ones, a
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: lot of twos, a lot of threes. But if Top
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: Gun got like the majority of the twos and enough
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: of the ones, you know what I mean. So they're obviously,
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: you know, if you're number ten or nine, you're you're
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: not going to compete. I think Top Gun definitely has
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: a chance. I think that stuff does matter. But my
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: tricky thing to Top Gun, which I loved, who couldn't
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: love it, is just that it's not really a Best
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Picture winner, like at its core, you know, I mean,
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: it's a great movie, but you know, it doesn't quite
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: have the weightiness of what a lot of best pictures
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: typically have. And I think that's what's gonna hurt it
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: in the end. You know, I thought there was a
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: lot of people. Tom Cruise was kind of on the
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: outside looking in for Best Actor nomination. The director was
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: nominated at the dga's. He didn't get the Oscar nomination.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: It did not get as many nominations as I think
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: people thought it would. I think what's also tricky is
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: like the two big technical categories that everyone assumed it
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: would dominate were editing in visual effects. And I'll go
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: through some of these now, Chad, because I feel like
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: we're not going to do all the awards, like visual
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: effects is going to be Avatar, partially because the Top
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: Gun crew has very kind of bragged that, like they
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: weren't visual effects were already we were up there in
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: those planes. Whereas you watch Avatar and you're like, are
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: these visual effecture to James Cameron reinvent the wheel again? Right,
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's a whole other level. And then
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: with editing, Eddie Hamilton edited a top Gun. He does
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: all the Christmas Cory, but he's does Mission Impossible. He's
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: a genius. But everything everywhere, the whole movie's editing and
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: the editing Oscar often connects. It used to more than less.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: So in the two thousands and the two thousand and tens,
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: I'll give you some data if you want it. But
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: usually in past the best editing also went to Best
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: Picture because there was a correlation of if it's the
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: best movie the year, it's the best edited film of
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: the year. What's happened a lot in the last twenty
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: five years or so is they have given movies that
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: were more, you know, just sort of like the editing
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: really stood out as opposed to it being part of
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: the best Picture. So for instance, I'll give you a
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: little data, right, So in the nineties, six of the
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: best pictures also won best Editing. In the two thousands,
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: six of the Best Pictures also won Best Editing. In
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: the two thousand and tens, only one Best Picture also
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: won Best Editing, so it's not quite the precursor it
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: used to be. With that said, this is what I'll say.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: If Top Gun wins Best Editing early in the night,
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: I'm still not convinced the twinning Best Picture. If Everything
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: Everywhere wins Best Editing, it is one hundred percent winning
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: Best Picture. Pay attention right now, Everything Everywhere is minus
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: seven hundred to win Best Picture. After that it's a
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: banshees at about I think minus eleven hundred to win
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: Best Picture, I mean plus eleven hundred, sorry to win
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: Best Picture. Best Director. Are the Daniels that you mentioned
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: Lasker minus eighteen hundred to win and then Spielberg with
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: the unwatchable Fable Men's at plus eight You're gonna give
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: me a blacklists from Hollywood just being just just being
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: around this talk. I know, all right, Look I watched
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: I tried it for fifty two minutes. Who's like, why would?
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: And I love the Fable Men's. Spielberg is a god
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: to every Jewish family of the past forty years, you know,
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: because of Schindler's list and then what he does with
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: Shoa and all that kind of stuff, like who's not
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: rooting for the guy fifty two minutes. I looked at
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: it when I turned it off. It was Judd Hirsch,
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: who I also love, telling the kid where artists and
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: like everything was on the nose. Every scene that could
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: have been ten seconds was ten minutes. It was just
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: two self intoption for me. But whatever, Well there's I'm sorry,
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: continue no, no, that that gives you a stat Well,
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: what's interesting about about Sunday Night? You have two legends
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: that are trying to win their third main oscar for
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: what they do. I mean, Spielberg has more than three oscars,
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: or he has because of like producing and stuff, but
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: he's only one director twice. Cabe Lynchet has only one
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: two acting oscars Supporting Actress two thousand and four for Aviator,
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: Lead Actress twenty thirteen for Blue Jasmine. They both could
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: get their third on Sunday Night. That's really hard to do.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: Meryl Street one and seventy nine for Kramers Kramer eighty
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: two for Sophie's Choice, does not win again till twenty
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: eleven for The Iron Lady Nicholson seventy five for Cuckoo's
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: Nest eighty three Terms of a Deerman doesn't win again
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: till ninety seven first goes it gets it is hard
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: to win a third, Oscar. I'll give you one more
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: stat granted he's canceled. Woody Allen wins Original Screenplay seventy
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: seven for Any eighty six for Hand and Her Sisters,
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: wins the third one in twenty eleven for Midnight in Paris,
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: and he was nominated a lot in between despite all
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: the scandals. So I know I'm jumping ahead, but I
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: think why Michelle Yaw in my mind's been surging for
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: a while, is that, like, you know, I don't know
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: that Michelle Yow. You know, I hope she's nominated again
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: in the rest of her career. Came Lynchet is like Lebron,
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: like every time she makes a movie, she can be
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: nominated every time. You know, you get the correlation. So,
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: and Spielberg is interesting because he's right there in the middle.
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: He has not win Best Director since ninety eight for
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: Saving Private Ryan. He's been nominated five or six times
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: since maybe four times. He's like seventy six years old.
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: And so I think initially you'd think, well, you got
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: to give him the oscar again because he's he's getting older.
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: But then you're like, but he's not slowing down, you
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: know what I mean. He seems like he's in great health.
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: I hope he is. I love him like everybody. But
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: so I sort of wondered as the academy think, well,
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: it's Steven Spielberg, he'll be back. I mean, Clint is
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: ninety three and still making movies and some movies that
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: have contended, you know, in the last ten years, so
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: you know, look, I'm not ruling Spielberg out. One thing
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: also to point out to your listeners, which I think
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: is important, is that what's interesting, like with what you
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: guys do when you're obviously like handicapping the Super Bowl
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: and other games, is that you guys are seeing the
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: direct teams play weekend week out, and you're able to
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: like you're using the same metric for the most part.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: Granted they're not. You're not seeing a Super Bowl matchup
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: ahead of time. But we have to remember about all
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: these Guild awards that everything everywhere is winning. They're all
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: comprised of different groups of people. One hundred thousand people
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: in SAG, over one hundred thousand people voted for SAG Awards. Right,
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: there's only ninety nine hundred Academy members. The DJA, I think,
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: has eighteen thousand people in it, and it's you know,
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: uniproduction managers, location managers, assistant directors, the Golden Globes. We
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: don't have to spend a minute on them. Nobody who's
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: ever voted for an Oscar is part of the Golden Globe.
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: So what you have to remember for Sunday is that
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: this is its own specific body that only portions of
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: make up all these other guilds, and so there is
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: no correct You really can never say like, oh, because
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: Austin Butler won the Bafta, he's gonna win like no,
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: Like there might be five hundred people that vote for
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: the BAFTAs that are in the Oscars. So my point
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: about Spielberg is that with the dga's yeah, he didn't win,
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: but that's happened many times where the DJA winner doesn't
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: go on to win Best Director. And the thing about
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: Daniels and I'm rooting harder for them. I know them,
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: their clients, they're wonderful guys. I'm so happy for them
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: is that they can win. They're in three categories. They're
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: nominated as producers for the movie, directors, and original screenplay.
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: So you know, one thing that could happen on Sunday
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: is there could be a split. And I'm gonna give
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: you some more data because i haven't even I've got
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: my data for you, which is to simply say, as
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: far as like Best Picture, Best Director split. Okay, in
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: the nineties, there was only one split. In the two thousands,
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: there were three splits. In the two thousand tents, there
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: were five years it's split. Now in this decade, we've
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: had two Oscars, it's already split once, so fifty fifty.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: So you're seeing more and more that movies are dominating
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: less because one thing I was thinking about and preparing
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: for this is, you know, we're basically out of the
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: era of the historical sweeping drama that like wins seven
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: oscars nine oscars. The last major the last movie that
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: won like more than five oscars. The one Best Picture
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: or more than six oscars was Slumdog Millionaire. It won
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: eight Oscars in two thousand and eight, and before that,
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: Returned to the King won eleven Oscars in two thousand
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: and three. But before that you had lots of years
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: were like Chandler's List one seven, Dancail Wolves won seven,
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: Titanic one eleven, you know, English Patient one nine. In
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: the two tens, you really didn't see that. You saw
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: movies that were smaller win three oscars, four oscars, five oscars,
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: three oscars against stuff like that. So it's still anybody's game,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: Like everything everywhere could actually win six or seven Oscars
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: because people thought it was always winning Supporting Actor for
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: Key weekwon, but Michelle y'all might win, And now all
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: of a sudden people think Jamie Lee Curtis is going
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: to win, So it could win three of the acting Oscars.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: So if you pick up those three, and if you
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: do pick up Picture Director, Screenplay, and you pick up editing,
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: when now you won seven. So that's why this race
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: is so great because there's so many trends bucking in
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: so many different ways. And again my point is no
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: one knows because this body has not been probably it's
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: impossible to analyze them ahead of time. That's why it's fun.
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: That's also what makes Spielberg's so interesting, as like a
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: little taste on a long shot, right, Simon, think about
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: if you're betting futures everything Alasker just said, who knows,
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: Like the Academy might give the guys who produced and
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: directed Everything Everywhere Best Picture and Best Screenplay, and if
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: they split the vote on director, all of a sudden
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: that cats to Spielberg. Isn't that when we'd want to
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: place Spielberg at plus eight fifty. Was that like last
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: year or two years ago that we made that crazy
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: bet on this show. I think it was an Anthony
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: Hopkins movie that was like out of nowhere. This movie
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: came out of nowhere, and it was one of those
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: where it was I think I think it was twenty
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: to one on our show, and by the time the
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: officers came around, it was all way down to two
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: to one. So those are the kind of things I'm
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: always looking for. Obviously, I'm waiting to hear him give
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: us some crazy long shots here. But that's wild that
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: they already have the directors of Everything Everywhere all once
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: at minus eighteen to one. That's that's crazy chat at
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: this point. Yeah, it's insane, And Simon, I think what
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: you have to do, like I can prove it somewhere.
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: I have an email, I correctly predicted Anthony Hopkins would
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: win for the Fall. Yeah, and no, I'm giving you
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: the credit. You nailed it well well. But the reason
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: I bring it up is that you have to go
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: a level and nothing you're not. You have to go
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: level deeper in thing. First of all, you have to
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: watch everything right. And I watched both of those movies
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: and no distracted Chadwick Boseman rap. It's horrible that he
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: died so young, but when you watched that movie, he's
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: really a supporting player in the movie. And when you
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: watched The Father, you're like, oh, this is like a
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: Shakespearean one man show. And it just sort of hit me,
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: like if you like, I always try to put my
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: I'm not in the Academy. I hope i am one day,
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: but I always try to put myself in the head
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: of you have to think that everybody's watching the movies.
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: I know there's a lot of people who are naysayers,
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: and they say people aren't. I don't agree with that.
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: I think by and large, my friends that are in
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: the Academy, my clients, my colleagues, like, they take it seriously.
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: They try to watch everything. And if you had watched
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: those two movies, I think you would have thought, well,
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: am I only giving it to Chadwick because he unfortunately
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: passed away. That's not really a reason to give somebody
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: Academy award, And so I think that's where you always
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: have to go that level deeper, like with Angel Labassett
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: and Jamie Lee Curtis this year. Look, I adore Angel Labassett.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: She's a genius. She's unbelievable. What's love got to do
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: with it? Which she was nominated for ninety three? You know,
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: Black Panther two was very good. It was not the
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: first movie for lots of reasons. And I think at
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: the end of the day, it's not that's not a
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: role people will typically win an Oscar for, and a
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: lot of people I think we're feeling, well, it's kind
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: of the career achievement. But it's the same thing with
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: Jamie Lee Curtis. She's another person who's been around for
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: a long time, grew up in the business. She's amazing
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: in the movie. And I do think, you know, you
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: have to get into that mindset of just literally like
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: a little bit of what's the story behind the win
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: and like what do people feel about the movie. So
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: that's why I feel like this race is interesting. I
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: mean know we're gonna get there. The Best Actor race
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: is the trickiest race this year, one hundred percent. Like
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: that can go three different ways. I want to save
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: that one because yeah, I'm sorry, I apologize. It's like
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: I'm hijack. No no, no, no no, no no. Listen, this
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: is a free flowing conversation, sometimes with mature subject matter. Okay,
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: the NBA season is heating up, and now is the
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: perfect time to download FanDuel America's number one sports book
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: because new customers get a no sweat first bet up
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: to one thousand dollars. That's bonus bets back. If your
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: first bet doesn't win, just download the FanDuel sports Book app.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: It's safe, secure, and super easy to use. Then you
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: can bet on everything from the money line to point
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: scorers and three strain. Tonight, my favorite NBA bet is
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: Charlotte against the streaking New York Knickerbockers, So don't miss
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: the chance to get your no sweat first bet up
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: to one thousand dollars in bonus bets when you go
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: to FanDuel dot com slash favorites. That's FanDuel dot com
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: slash Favorites to learn more and if you're in Massachusetts,
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: get ready because fanduels coming soon. Make sure you check
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: out FanDuel dot com slash mass and take advantage of
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: their great pre live offers. Make every moment more with
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: FanDuel and official sports betting partner of the NBA. Must
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: be twenty one or older and present in select states.
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: First online real money water only, ten dollar deposit required,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: Refund issued is non withdrawal bonus bets that expire in
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: fourteen days. Restrictions apply see full terms at FanDuel dot
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: com slash Sportsbook. Fanduels offer an online sports Way Drink
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Cassino LLLC.
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: Gambling Problem Call one eight hundred Gambler or visit FanDuel
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: dot com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois,
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: Virginia one eight hundred next step or text next step
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: to five three three four two in Arizona one eight
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven, or
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: visit CCPG dot org slash chat in Connecticut one eight
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: hundred nine with it in Indiana ks gambling heelp dot
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: com in Kansas one eight seven seven seven seven zero
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: stop in Louisiana one eight seven seven eight Hope NY
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: or text Hope NY in New York, Tennessee. Redline is
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight nine
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred five two two forty seven hundred in Wyoming,
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: or visit www. One eight hundred gambler dot net in
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: West Virginia. Best picture. I think it's hard to tell
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: anybody not to bet everything everywhere or just to skip it,
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: because everything everywhere has such a huge lead in terms
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: of the odds minus seven hundred, like I said Banshees
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: of Nishier and plus eleven hundred. I thought Banshees was brilliant.
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: Of the movies that I saw this year, Bansheeses that
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: are that are nominated, Banshees All Quiet, Top Gun Tar Like,
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: I loved all of those Banshees. To me, just felt
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: like asking such a powerful question, like what is the
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: point of everything? Is it to leave the legacy no
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: matter the cost? Or is it live the best life,
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: happiest life in that moment that you can and who
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: cares if you're remembered. It's the next Stentril question. I
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: think we all ask it every single day. I didn't
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: love everything everywhere, so like I know it's going to win,
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: didn't love it too much for me. You're not the
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: only person I've talked to you not to aid you
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: over the age of fifty who's felt that way. One
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: thing with Banshees. This is my point earlier about the
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: streaming and I'm gonna make a crazy connection to something
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: and I need to throw out every caveat Okay, there's
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: an incredible Oscar book that just came out to seeing
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: This book called The Oscar Wards by Michael Schulman. A
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: lot of podcasts are talking about it. I started reading it.
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: It's excellent and he traces like eleven of the most
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: famous like Oscar races, ever, whatever you want to say
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: about Harvey Weinstein, and he obviously deserves to rot in
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: jail for the rest of his life, like the Harvey
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: Weinstein era, like had he been running the race of Banshees.
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: And it's not to knock you know, Fox, you know
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: who's behind it. Like it also connects to the fact
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: that you know, we're not most people are watching things
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: at home. And that's my point earlier that like in
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: the olden times, which is like five years ago, if
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: Banshees had just like played for five straight months and
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: there was a Harvey esque person behind it, not him,
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: forget about him, but keeping the the issue because you know,
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: I watched the movie, I really liked it, and I
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: was like, but wait, did I understand it? And I
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: started reading about it and started to understand the metaphors
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: about the Irish Civil War and like you said, wanted
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: to be remembered and wanted to do something with your life.
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: And there are people in the past I think that
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: have they have ways of keeping the themes of a
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: movie talked about longer and longer and longer. And I
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: don't think that always happened with Banshees in this in
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: this Race, because it's an excellent movie. People obviously love
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: Martin McDonough m So that's one thing we'll never know
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: because the streaming era, like we can't put that genie
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: back in the bottle. And I think unfortunately the Tars
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: of the World, I love Tar those movies are going
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: to probably be more streaming, you know, you know immediately,
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: and it's a bummer because you know, Chad, you're probably
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: the oldest here. I'm the second oldest, but you and
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: I remember enough and maybe you do two sime, and
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: we're like these these you know, so called indie adult
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: films they'd play for like five months, you know, like
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: all of a sudden. Again, not to reference Harvey, but like,
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: you know, they famously did a really good job on
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: the movie Philomena of the Judy Dench film and Steve Coogan,
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: where she played the nun who had to give up
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: her kid. It was a true story. They kept that
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: story about what happened to those nuns. They kept that
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: in the media for so long that maybe quietly made
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: tons of money, you know. And I still have to
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: believe that's possible, especially with something like everything everywhere. I
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: hope it's possible. But the studios, this is again another tangent.
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: They're going to have to have some faith and say,
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: you know what, We're not going to send Tar to
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: streaming after three weeks. We're gonna let Tar just be
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: in the theaters for four months and see what happens.
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: Because I still think adults they're still craving that type
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: of material. But my point is I think that's what
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: maybe hurt Banshees is it. I never feel like it'd
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: stayed in the conversation quite enough, But I could be wrong.
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, it got nine nominations, and that's the movie
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: unfortunately that has the biggest risk of like not winning anything. No,
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: I think you're right. I think it's the streaming is
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: a help and hindrance. Right, I got to see more
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: movies that I might not have gotten to see, but
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: the less conversation because I don't have every single person
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: in my circle saying, oh my god, have you seen X.
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: You gotta go see X. Right, And because there's a
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: little bit of an effort, it's a little bit of
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: a surprise, there's a little bit of an experience. Different
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: experience when you know, pop it on and you're watching
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: it on your couch and it goes away and by
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: the time you see someone to talk about a movie again,
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: you've forgotten you've seen it. It's just a different experience. Well,
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: and it's like we're you know, we're in the social media.
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm thinking back again to date myself. I
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: was a freshman in college when Good Will Hunting came out.
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: You know, there were no smartphones, there was no Twitter.
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: People talked about good Will Hunting for four straight months.
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: It's all people could talk about, you know, like it
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: was sold out every night at the Century City fourteen
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: and Westwards doesn't even exist anymore. Like that's just what
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: would happen with these like great movies. You know, give
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: us your take, we're going to get the best actor,
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: because I do think I started recapping, let's take best Picture,
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: Best Director off because the odds are so or that
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: they're they're upside down for everything everywhere. Best actress, interesting race,
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: relatively even although even if the even though the odds
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: i'm looking at have Cape Blanchett a little bit shorter
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: than Michelle Yoo, Like are you I'm sorry they have
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: Michelle Yao is as shorter than Cape Latchet. But do
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: you put it? Do you take a flyer on Cape
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: Latchet or do we feel like this one is closed?
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: It's a total toss up. I mean, I think Michelle
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: Yao is gonna win. But yeah, I'm looking at the
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: odds you guys sent over. I mean, it's not like
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: you know, what's so Michelle's minus one two five and
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: capelan Chet's minus one fifteen, like, I mean, it's a
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: it's a total toss up. I mean, look, Cape Blanchet
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: very likely could win. I talked to an academy about
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: her yesterday, who voted for her. I mean, she's astonishing
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: in Tar. I just feel like Michelle Yoo, it's a
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: different type performance. She has to play fifty versions of herself.
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: It feels like it has the momentum. And I also
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: feel like I don't expect Michelle Yaw unfortunately to like
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: be at the Oscars next year and the next m
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: capelyn Chet like reads the phone book, she'll be nominated
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: for an Oscar. So I was still go Michelle, Yeah,
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: but it doesn't look like there's not really a long
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: shot there. It's one of those two. The other three
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: actresses unfortunately, like have no no chance. So it doesn't
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: feel like it's a category you can make money on,
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: really in a meaningful way. Let me read the nominees
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: for actor Simon. If you've seen these movies, I'd like
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: your opinion. Brendan Frasier, The Whale, Austin Butler, Elvis, Colin Farrell,
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: Banshees of Innsharin, Paul Mscall after Son. I don't know
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: how to say his name? Bill ni living m Simon.
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: Have you seen any of these movies? Yeah, and it
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: feels honest. You like, Brendan Frasier's a lock. He's one
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: of those guys where I think no one Hollywood has
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: a bad word to say about him except that guy
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: that tried to ruin his life years ago. So it's
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: one of those moments where kind of had a raw
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: deal in life. He dealt with a lot of stuff
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: off screen, and you know, the business kind of blacklists him, right,
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: and this coming backstory, I mean, Chad, I think you know,
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: just as well as I America loves to build people
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: up just to tear him down, and I think he's
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: one of the great examples of that of this guy.
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: He was at the peak man. I mean, I can't
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: think of a single, you know, action movie that didn't
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: have him in there for a while, Like every little
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: thing he did was gold. And it was a nice
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: run by him. And then he disappeared, and you know,
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: we didn't know. I think most general fans didn't know
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: what was going on. We're just like, Okay, he spending
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: time with his family. Well, comes out he actually had
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: a lot of stuff going on. Behind the scenes, and
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: you know, he's been making the rounds. I've been listening
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: to a lot of shows, and he's been jumping on,
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: doing a lot of podcasts and just getting no getting
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: his name out there and trying to get the hype
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: around his movie out there even more. And to me,
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: when I saw these odds, I thought he'd be closer
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: to minus four hundred. I'd be shocked, honestly if I
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: don't also wanted just because all the baggage and all
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: of his history, the fact that he's come back and
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: his performance is amazing, Like he really is amazing in
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: that movie. It's especially as a guy, it's tough to
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: really make me cry, and that was one of those
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: just the whole aspect of him, his daughter, it pulls
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: on the strings because it's so realistic and it's such
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: it's such from a different viewpoint of a man that's
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: really overweight and he's trapped in this body and he's
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: trapped on this couch. So you know, I wanted to
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: be Tom Cruise because I think Tom Cruise is old
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: one by the Academy for everything he's done for movies,
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: but he'll never get it for an action movie like
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: that there's not really acting like there is in the Whale,
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: where Brendan Frasier is really taken on this role. So
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: you know, I didn't think I say, two months ago,
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: I didn't think he'd win it. But now if you're
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: listening to him all these different shows, just how much
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: everyone loves and respects him. I'm honestly interest here where
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: you're as opinion on this. I just feel like he
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: is a lock for it. So I've actually bet this one.
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: It's one of the few ones I've already bet that's
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: at minus one eighty. I just think he's the best
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: guy in this category of everything. He's overcome and then
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: he put on such an amazing performance. I just love
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: Brendan Frasier in the spot Wow. You said that beautifully.
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: I got nothing to add there, Lasker. I agree. I
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: mean I think that, look, this is the trickiest race
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: of the night, and you did It's yeah, it's Bill Nihees.
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: I think you kind of said it correctly. I think that,
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: look again, you have to go to the storyline, right
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: the storyline Brendan Frasier A Simon perfectly put is the
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: comeback that movie. He's amazing in the movie. The movie
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: didn't get as much grounds well as they wanted to,
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: didn't get a script nomination so forth, But he is
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: amazing in it, and Hong Chow also got nominated. Who's
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: really good in it, which shows you that there is,
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: you know, some real support for it. Colin Farrell, it's
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: like he's the nomination of this year of everyone kind
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: of saying we've always loved you, Colin Farrell, and now
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: like you're in the club, and like he'll get nominated
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: five times the next ten years. Like everyone's just sort
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: of like your hand has been stamped and you could
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: now also like read the phone book and you'll get
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: a nomination again. And I did talk to Academy voter Yesterdy,
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: you said they're voting for him. And then the Butler
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: thing is interesting. He definitely had been like rising the
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: whole the whole way, you know, you know, he was
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: going upward the whole this whole run. I think what's
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: hurting him in the end. As a couple of things,
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: I actually think him like doing the accent on word
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: shows people were turned off by. But one thing to
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: point out is that typically it's the women and best
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: actress who get it like really young for like the first,
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: second or third or fourth movie, like a Jennifer Lawrence.
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: It's not typically the men. If you go back twenty
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: twenty five years, the men are all typically over like
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: forty or fifty getting Best Actor. I also think, and
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: I'm not trying to throw shade in anybody, I love
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: all these people, but like they gave it to Rommi
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: Malik for Bohemian Rhapsody, and I think people kind of
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: like now question like did he really deserve it for that,
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: you know, because he was just sort of like impersonating
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: Freddie Mercury and all the all the shows. And I
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: feel like I thought, also Butler was amazing and Elvis,
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: and I really liked Elvis. But it's kind of the
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: same thing. The movie is so kinetic and so much
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: of it's the performing that there's very few scenes where
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: you're just like, oh, Austin Butlers just getting just letting
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: They're just letting him act. And I think in the end,
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: it's like the Butler nomination is welcome to the party,
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: kid now show us the next grate ten things. There's
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: like an online rumor maybe he'll play Val Kilmer's role
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: if they do the new version of Heat based on
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: the new Michael ManBook he wrote that takes place in
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: the future. He's in the New Dune and at the
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: end of the day, like, I think it's gonna be frasier,
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: Like I think the story is too good. Again, if
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: you watch the five movies, he's kind of undeniable in
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: that in the makeup and watching him is it's so sad.
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, watching him like overeat at the frigerator, Like
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: I think, I think it'll be frasier. I mean, but
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: this one is one that, like when they opened it
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: up on Sunday night, you could go one or three
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: ways there'll be no and you wouldn't be surprised. So
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: I would bet frasier. But I don't know. I mean,
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be tough to the you know, to the
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: final literally till they tear the envelope open. That movie
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: was so uncomfortable, you know, Like, And I think it's
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: interesting you talked about Top Gun earlier and sort of
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: the commercial success and can it win a Best Picture
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: or something like that, And I feel like people don't
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: give a weight enough weight to I think emotional residence
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: in movies, and they think about the technical they think
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: about a performance, they think about does it have dramatic weight,
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: emotional weight, But like I just mean, how does it
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: make you fucking feel? Like? I saw a top Gun
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: in the theater twice. I haven't done that since top
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: came Top Gun came out like forty years ago. Like that,
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: it just was an amazing movie experience. You should get
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: more credit for that as a I think you're right.
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: I'll give you a different metric on Top Gun. I'll
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: see you're seeing it two times in the theater. What
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: I when I knew was special. I saw in the
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: theater opening day, loved it. I was on a series
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: of planes and I was with my wife and are
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: now seventeen month old, so like I couldn't watch anything.
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: I could just try to keep her from not crashing
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: the plane. But there would invariably be people in front
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: of me watching Top Gun on their laptops and on
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: the plane, and I would just watch it, not hearing anything,
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: like looking five feet up and I could watch the
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: whole thing. And that's when I sort of realized, like
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: this is special, Like you can watch this from ten
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: feet away not hearing anything, and you kind of know
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: what's going on and you can, you know, love the visuals.
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: So I agree with you. I mean, there is no
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: down Top Guns the movie of the years is so
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: interesting about Avatar making all the money it made, and
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: I hope James Cameron gets to make whatever he wants
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: because he's a genius. But like, I don't know, like
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: any adults over the age of twenty five who like
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: talked about the movie after they saw it. Apparently it's
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: just like humongous with teenagers on TikTok. And obviously they
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: got the China release and ash in China, which can
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: add a lot of money. But Top Gun, that was
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: the movie of the year. That was the movie everybody
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: talked about. It didn't matter if you were a Republican Democrat, old, young, white, black,
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: like just did not matter. Like yeah, so I agree
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: with you. And that's why a lot of people are
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: talking to feel like that's going to win Best Picture,
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: that you're going to see that split at the end.
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: And by the way, if it wins, Tom Cruise gets
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: an oscar. He's one of the four credited producers, and
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: Christie McCary would get his second oscar. He won Original
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: Screen call Usual Suspects ninety five, David Ellison would get
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: an oscar. You know, David Ellison came to Hollywood seeing
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: as like the rich kids, son of Larry Ellison. But
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: the sky Dance has actually turned into like a humongous
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: company which has become really successful. And then finally Jerry
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: Bruckheimer would get an Oscar. So there's a lot of
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: good storylines. I'm for it. And I sort of went
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: on a tangent and lost my point about Brendan Fraser,
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: but he's so good in that movie. Yeah, the way
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: he physically tries to get up, Like also to have
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: someone talk about what it's like to be that big,
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: and you know, you see people like that and you
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: just you can't help it as yourself. How the fuck
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: did that happen? And like, yeah, he brought such humanity
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: to that idea. It was a really great exploration of grief.
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: And I think, you know, not to get all actory,
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: but he has such expressive eyes and I feel like
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: there's so much in his eyes and that performance, you know,
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: it just yeah, I thought, I mean, I know a
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: lot of people who didn't like the movie for all
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: the reasons people would think of, but I thought he
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: was like astonishing in it. And you know he by
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: the way, he's been in a lot of Academy fair
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, he was in Gods and Monsters, which one
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: Best after Screenplay in ninety eight, he was in Crash,
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: which one Best Picture, or controversially in two thousand and five,
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: controversially because people didn't like it and they think it's
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: the worst Best Picture winner ever. But I mean the artist, Yeah, yeah, exactly, Yeah,
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: I know, that's what's crazy. There's movies that win that
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: are of a moment that like no one's ever talked
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: about ever again, you know. And then there's movies you know,
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: your guys buddies at the Ringer, you know, they talk
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: a lot about The Social Network is their favorite movie
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: of the two thousand and tens, which I think is
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: a very worthy answer. And that didn't win that loss
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: of the King's Speech? Have you ever talked about the
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: King's Speech? But the Social Network that's like imprinted in
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: people's you know, consciousness. So oh, look, it's Saving Private
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: Ryan and Shakespeare in Love. Yeah, Like Shakespeare in Love
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: didn't it win Best Picture that year? And Saving Private
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: Ryan is the movie that still resonates twenty five years later. Yeah,
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: that's the one. You know that I mentioned that new
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: Oscar book that that is what people consider to be
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: the beginning of the Harvey Weinstein onslaught where they were
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: out for blood and they were figuring out ways to
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: compete and not you know what people have said, what's
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: in the book, haven't gotten there. But I mean I
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: remember living it is that they kind of started this
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: Whisper Whisper campaign that that same prep Ryan was only
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: good for the first twenty minutes. Then, yes, the first
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: twenty minutes of the great twenty minutes ever put on film.
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: The rest of MOE was boring, and that's how they
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: like slowly inched their way in there. So I remember,
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, they had Harrison Ford present Best
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: Picture that year because they do that sometimes they try
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: to connect someone to who they think is going to win.
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: And he obviously made all these movies with Spielberg, and
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: when he reads Shakespeare Love you can tell that he's
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: like shocked himself. He's like, what the fuck did I
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: doing here for this? What is that? He's like, what
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: the fuck am I doing here for this? Exactly? And
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: by the way, one of my predictions for Sunday, I
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: think Tom Cruisel will present Best Picture despite being in
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: Top Gun. They've they've done it before. They've had Nicholson
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: was nominated for a Few Good Men, presented it to
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: Unforgiven to ninety two. Nicholson was in The Departed, presented
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: it to the Departed in two thousand and six. Like
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: they've done it, and I mean when Jimmy Kimmel hosted
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: both times, they had Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway present,
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: and they've been having a lot of like legends present
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: the last couple of years. They had Liza Minelli last year.
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: They'd read a Moreno two years ago. My feeling is
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: it will be Tom Cruise. I mean, he's going to
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: the ceremony, he's been doing press and he's like the
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: president of Hollywood right now despite all the stuff that
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: comes with him. So you know, they have to find
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: a you know, like an ambassador to give out that award.
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: That's what's so funny about Tom Cruise is the public
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: perception is he's a nut job scientologist, crazy person. If
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: you talk to anyone in Hollywood, I mean anyone. Even
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: John Hamm was talking about it on a show Listened
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: a couple of days ago. He is the greatest actor
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: you can work with because he's always going one hundred
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: percent and he knows everyone's name. He knows the guy
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: who does the tape, you know, tapes the lights up
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: in the background, knows that guy's name and the guy's
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: kid's names. He's just one of those guys. He's very
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: I just feel like he's the old guard of Hollywood.
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: It's like that old guard that's kind of fading away.
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: We don't really have the he's a true superstar, Like no,
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: he is. I have these two friends at Paramount, this
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: woman Tamar Teifeld and this guy Brian Pianco. Tamart does
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: digital publicity, and Brian helps cut the trailers and oversees it.
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: Really and they were telling me, you know, at the
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: end of every mission, impossible movie, and I assumed it
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: happened on top Gun. Tom has like a luncheon for
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: all the marketing people, you know where they have with
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: this like three hour luncheon where everyone gets their picture
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: taken with him. He you know, talks everybody like he's
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: really into that. Like it takes five hundred people to
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: make a movie and to release a movie and to
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: market a movie, and you know, there were a lot
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: of people who went to Richard Lovett, who's the president
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: of CIA, which represents Tom Cruise forever. They went to
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: him in the in the beginning of the pandemic. I
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: mean I saw, I mean, I knew the people that
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: were calling him saying, get Tom Cruise to put this
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: on streaming tomorrow. Put it out fourth the July. Charge
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: one hundred bucks. You'll laugh all the way to the bank.
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: And I believe, I can't confirm I believe. I mean,
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: well you kind of know now, I mean definitely paramount.
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: They all went to Tom and said, let's just do streaming,
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: and he was like, no, this is for the movies.
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: And I remember, just as a movie goer, like, oh man,
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: it's coming out of Christmas. Shit, it's not coming out
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: of anymore now. It's like just annoyed, you know, like
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, we've been waiting for these missional Apostle movies
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: for two years now. Those are my favorite movies to watch.
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: So he hung in there. He knew what everybody wanted
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: and he was right. So it's yeah, this year people
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: love to bemoan Hollywood. Oh the movies are getting so bad.
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: It's all about TV. It's been a great year for movies.
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: There's been some amazing films this year, amazing foreign films,
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: amazing documentaries. That's those are good races too. I mean,
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: maybe it's the Navalni talk. Maybe it's the talk about
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: the two people that like go to volcanoes. There's there's
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: a lot of good toss ups. Who is our It's
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: hard to say because it feels like the top two
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: in each category are pretty locked. But is there a
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: as you look at the landscape, long shot you think
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: can come from longer odds to claim a little gold man.
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: This is the problem. Despite what I was saying that
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: there's only one body, which is the Academy, and no
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: one can predict them because you have all the precursor awards.
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: It is very very rare that there's a true surprise,
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: like Anna Paquin winning for the Piano, or Rissa Toomey
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: winning for my cousin Vinnie, or like Olivia Coleman winning
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: Best Actress in twenty eighteen for the Crown over Glenn Close,
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: or not the Crown for the Favorite. Again, excuse the pun, no,
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: I think I think the Jamie Lee Curtis surprise has
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: already rooted its head. I mean if you go into
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: the everything everywhere like is gonna like dominate. I also
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: could see Stephanie Sue. I think, hey a pronounce her
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: last name. She could win because she's really amazing in
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: that movie. Like she's kind of comes that movie and
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: blows everybody off the screen. Yeah. No, I think actress
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: is fifty to fifty between Michelle and Kate. Actor. We
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: talked about supporting actress of Locke. I mean I've thought
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: about it. I don't think like maybe if we find
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: out Monday morning there was a massive Banshee surge, then yeah,
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: watch Brendan Gleeson win, and then you'll know if Brendan
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: Gleeson win supporting actor at the top of the night,
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: you'll know, Oh Banshee's ended up being everyone's a favorite movie.
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: But how do you turn down the key quon? I
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: mean it's it's too good. I mean he's short round,
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: he's data from goodies, like the guy lost his health insurance,
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: Like he's gonna win, he needs to win. It's kind
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: of no different than the guy who went for Koda
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: last year. You know Troy Cotzer, who you know's death.
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: Uh No, I mean I think um no, I mean sadly,
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: I know this helps you guys, Like I don't think
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: there's like a crazy long shot. We didn't talk about
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: adapted screenplay. That's gonna you talk about adapted. But I
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: have a very strong case for why I think someone
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: a specific movie should win original, So talk about adapted. Well,
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: so adapted. You know it's gonna be either Sarah Paully
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: for women Talking, or it's gonna be All Quiet on
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: the Western Front. Now, Sarah Pauli won the WJA Adapted
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: Award over the weekend, but All Quiet on the Western
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: Front wasn't eligible because it's not the guys who wrote
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: it or not in the guild. I am in this
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: All Quiet on the Western Front surge where I feel
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: like the movie was highly decorated. People love it. It's
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: gonna win a lot of tab and Goal awards, and
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: I vote for that to win. I would love Sarah
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: Pauli one. I thought that movie was excellent and she
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: did an incredible job adapting it. She should have been
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: nominated for Best Director. It's going to be one of
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: those two. So again, I don't know there's like a
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: long shot in there, but it's kind of fifty fifty.
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: What's your take on Original screen Let me just say
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: real quickly. Women Talking is minus two forty on Best
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: Adapted Screenplay, All Quiet on the Western Front plus two forty.
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: Glass Oniona Knives Out Mystery, which was pretty terrible in
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: my opinion, is plus twenty three hundred. I just thought
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: it was like derivative and just not like the first
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: one was so original, and this one felt a little
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: bit too much like it was playing to pop culture.
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: I think Banshees at plus one hundred for Best Original Screenplay,
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: Everything Everywhere, I think it's minus one fifty. I could
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: see Banshee's winning it because Everything Everywhere Where is going
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: to get so much attention. Best Supporting Actor and Best Actress,
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: Best Director's Best Picture. Martin McDonagh is so good and
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: I think he's so beloved amongst the writing community, and
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: this is a brilliant movie. This is a spot where
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: you're getting a little bit of value at plus one hundred. Look,
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: I think that this is a really good bet to take.
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: You know, it will be shocking to me if Bianchees
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: comes away with nothing on Sunday and people love Martin McDonough.
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: He was kind of the lock to win Original Screenplay
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: in twenty seventeen for three Billboards and then get Out
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: Surge and Jordan Peel one, which, by the way, I
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: think was the right choice in the end, because talk
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: about an original screenplay, this is definitely one where you
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: have to think because remember the Academy for your listeners,
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: the individual branches nominate each branch, right, so the writers
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: nominate the writing awards, but for the actual Academy Awards
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: for the show, every single member votes for everything. So
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: you have cinematographers voting for writing, and you have directors
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: voting for writing and and so forth. So you could
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: you could look at it sort of like people are thinking, well,
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: I want to spread the wealth basically, and I'm not
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: voting for Banshees and the director and picture. And again
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: the Daniels are eligible for three of these Oscars. So
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: I think it's a really good bet. I mean, people
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: love that movie. People feel like this guy is like
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: the writer's writer, you know, he's this amazing playwright. Um,
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: it's not it's not a bad bet to take at all. Simon,
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: look at that. Look at me. Whyse guy handicapping the Oscars?
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: Now you're locked in. I'm so good at this, I
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: should just move to La and I should work at
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: Mosaic just he Yeah, come on, we've got We've got
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: an office for you. We have a podcast studio. Um,
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: I think we've gone through everything, Simon. I mean, you
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: want to give some love to our guy, Chris Raybond
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: what he likes Rihanna to win Best Song at Plus
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: four thirty Lift me Up. I believe it's the Wakanda
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: Forever Black Panther, So obviously we need to get a
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: little lucky. I like his his reasoning for it. Don't
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: bet against Rihanna. So I just wanted to get that
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: in there. Chris Raybon he likes for the best Song.
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: Here's what's interesting about song, right, is that the only
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: song that actually like elevated itself to being something people
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: talked about was Not Too not To from RRR, which
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: is an awesome song that's a big favorite right now.
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: The other the other songs, they're all excellent, but they're
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: just sort of like like even the Lady Gaga and
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: I saw somebody who I really respect, they picked it
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: to win. It's like nobody even remembers that song. At
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: the end of the movie, it was like cool, they
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: got Lady Gaga to do it. Yeah, like usually the
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: song I mean, you know, like eminem one, you know,
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: for Lose Yourself, right, Mile that's the best example because
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: like that's what the movie is about, and it is
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: organically inside the movie. And he was obviously the hottest
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: thing in the world at that point. But like people
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: are like on the Rihanna train because of the super Bowl.
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: She was incredible, but like I haven't heard I don't
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: even know if i've I saw the movie, I can't
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: even remember what the song was. Oftentimes the song that wins,
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: it's the song that people literally have heard the most
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: because it you know, there was a crescendo created that
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: would be not Touna Too from r R, which a
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: lot of people thought actually had a chance of getting
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: a Best Picture nomination. So I would still go with Notatunato.
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: I will say that the opening bars of Lift Me
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: Up are pretty freak and powerful, Like I definitely went
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: into a Rihanna wormhole after the super Bowl and those
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: first couple of dog walks were all Rihanna playlists and
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: and she was that that song is unbelievable, Like she
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: comes out all power and glory, so I'm with I
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: could I like ray Bunds tact, but you know, I
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: gotta go with what am I gonna do? Go against Laskar. No,
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: by the way, I could easily be wrong as all
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: the way till Sunday when I do like a pool
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: inside of my home. Uh, Lascar, I think we covered everything.
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: We did it, guys, we did it. Always a pleasure
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: to be here. I mean, you're not even giving any
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: oscar trivia. You're not quizzing me anymore. We're like, we're
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: past all of it. We are. We're just into what
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: can you tell us to make us some money? And
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: I think you've done that for us. I think there's
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: some parlay opportunities here, get some better odds. Are you
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: prepared for oscar trivia? Do you have one Oscar trivia question?
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: Like we can throw at you and say, you know, try,
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I mean, I'm always you know,
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I would like to know the nominees.
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: We'll see if you can get or not. Okay, we'll
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: see if you can get or not. The year that
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: Rocky won for all the awards, Yeah, investor Stallone wrote
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: the movie Yeah. Nominees for Original screenplay that year that
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: he won. Well, I don't. I mean, I'm ashamed. I'm
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: not sure I can give you that and give you
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: the Best Picture nominees? Would that suffice about seventy six?
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: Would that do it? Okay? Yeah, because that is one
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: of the most famous years ever. Because the paradox is
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: that people are happy that Rocky won, and they're happy
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: with that years later. But it was up against all
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: these other modern classics. So Rocky won, and it was
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: against all the Presidents Men Network, Taxi Driver, and then
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: Bound for Glory. Bound for Glory is the lesser known
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: of the five movies. Those are the five nominees and
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: seventy six. So Rocky, all the President's Men, Network, Taxi Driver,
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: Bound for Glory, and I mean that's just a murderers
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: row of movies. I mean, if you think about it,
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: you basically have four bona fide classics. I mean, there's
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: forget about Bound for Glory, which is a very good movie,
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: the Taxi Driver Network, all the Presidents Been In Rocky
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: are still four movies that are talked about every single day.
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, in like modern culture. All came out the
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: same year the nominees were Cousin Cuisine, Seven Beauties Network,
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: and The Front and Rock those the other four got it? Yeah,
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: I mean unfortunately I could give you. I could give
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: you all the screenplays, like starting from like ninety going forward.
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: There's only so much room in this noggin, you know,
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: But I feel like I've failed you. Well no, Also
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: you're getting older and like you know, now you've got
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: a kid and it takes up a lot of space.
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: So Michael Lasker Talent Manager extra ordinaire from Mosaic, but
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: also for our purposes, an Oscar savant who has made
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: a smarter about the upcoming Academy Awards. Simon Hunter my
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: bff for Matt Mitchell, our favorite producer. This has been
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: the favorite podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. Download your
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: podcast from Apple Podcasts, from Spotify, wherever you get your podcast,
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: rate review, subscribe, We was five stars. Say whatever you want.
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: Feedback is a gift. Until next time, Love you. Action
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: you care about has a gambling problem. Help is available
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: twenty four seven at one eight hundred. Gambler