Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / PGA Round 2 Showdown - Arnold Palmer Invitational | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process | 03/05/26

Transcript

PGA Round 2 Showdown - Arnold Palmer Invitational | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process | 03/05/26 · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: All system's going clear.
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: We lift up.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: And we are alive.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: Just I know it's about three minutes too early, three
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: minutes before time, but give me some slack if I
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: ever run three minutes late. Remember March fifth, twenty twenty six.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: We were three minutes early. So we're here.
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: Round two, Round one recap Arnold Palmer invitation. I can
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: only wear this hat for so many, so many shows,
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: So today, tomorrow, Saturday, I'm going to be wearing this
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: bay Hill hat. And I don't care, I don't care
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: what you said, because this is a fire fire hat.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Let's get it into it. Bring up the screen.
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: We see Daniel Berger shooting sixty three out the gates,
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: and then a bunch of guys six under five hundred
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: sixty six sixty seven sixty eight was a really, really
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: solid round in these conditions we saw today. And I'm
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: not going to go through player by player, but basically
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: what we saw from all of these guys up top
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: was just like pure ball striking. It wasn't really anyone
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: getting too hot with the putter, which could happen in
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: any any single scenario, any random scenario, and it wasn't
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: crazy driving accuracy.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: It wasn't crazy driving distance.
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: It was just pure, tried and true ball striking, which
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: is what we expect around Bayhill weekend, year and year out.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: So I'm kind of happy with that. Just like it
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: and it's predictable.
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: It should be predictable going forward in Tuesday or sorry, Friday,
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: Saturday Sunday Showdown. And I didn't go too heavy in
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: week long contest this week because I kind of wanted
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: to see how it was going to play out, and
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: I kind of wanted to see how the guys were
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: hitting it, truly, because at a golf course that really
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: rewards pristine ball striking, this is the spot where we
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: can use our tools, use our edges, use the stats alone,
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: and just find some of that that solid ball striking. So,
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: like I said, Daniel Berger with the sixty three, that
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: is probably going to be the round of the week,
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: I don't see anyone doing that again as it gets
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: a little bit more firm. Let's talk wast slep what
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: we saw today. We were definitely right about this. I
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: didn't talk about it. Actually I did talk about it
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: in the podcast, but I also answered in the discord, Uh,
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: the morning did play easier, and I'm expecting a little
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: bit more of that for tomorrow. So the morning played
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: almost almost two full strokes easier. Actually, I'm surprised by
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: how much of a difference that that was. So you
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: see minus one point zero eight in the morning and
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: then plus zero point sixty nine in the evening. So overall,
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: what is that zero point one nine played a round par?
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: So anything under par today is a really really solid
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: round going going forward.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: So that's how the wastlet was today.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: Let's look at the weather for tomorrow and see what
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: we are working with. So Friday around the guys are
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: gonna off again around seven forty am. I believe it's
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: seven forty Let's see seven forty am tomorrow, So at
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: call it eight o'clock, blowing around seven mile an hour
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: up to around ten mile an hour. The gust are
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: pre basically what we saw today twelve to eighteen, and
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: then around here it gets to twenty one hour gust.
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: And I did note that once we see it blow
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: over ten miles an hour, you really feel it. I
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: know this is four pm, but if there's a little
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: delay here with some thunder lightning, maybe they're going out
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: at like a thirty minute delay. They're going out at
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: five forty five, six, they can get those rounds in.
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: So I do think you want to be there could
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: be an edge going out a little earlier like there
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: was today. So that's kind of what I'm gonna be
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: looking for. I'm not gonna stack it all the way,
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: but I do wait, are we getting some thunder tonight? Yeah,
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: we're getting a little bit of rain. This probably negligible
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: rain like this was actually today, probably didn't even come
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: in a little bit of thunder in the evening. I
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: don't think it's gonna be anything significantly, but if it
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: even does happen tonight or this afternoon, whatever, I think
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: this morning we've just gets amplified a little bit more.
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: So with that being said, I do think I'm gonna
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: be stacking that, not for two but I'm gonna be
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: giving it like a nice little look, a harder look
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: than I will be giving the afternoon, that is for sure.
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: So next thing I want to talk about in terms
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: of stats, what we're looking for is what we what
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: we saw today. We're looking for pure ball striking. Like
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: I don't want to overthink it. I don't want to
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: lean into one specific area because one there's multiple ways
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: to do it. You can do it with distance or accuracy.
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: And two, what we saw today was just gain on
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: gain aultity, gain on approach, and go from there. So
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: that's what I'm gonna be looking at going forward, uh
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: for for this for this round two showdown.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: Next thing I want to touch on is some of
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: the contests.
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: I'll say right now, the ten dollars eighteen max is
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: the way to play tomorrow in my opinion, if you
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: only want to put in sub two hundred dollars. Outside
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: of that, I have a thing for this fifty five dollars.
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: I think it's an eleven max tomorrow fifty five dollars
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: twelve max, but it switches up sometimes it's fifty five
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: dollars nine max eight max. I really do like this
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: fifty five dollars contest. I love the because there's only
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: so many people in here. If you're entering twelve lineups
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: in this and there's only four hundred and thirteen max entries,
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: you have a really good stronghold on the field. So
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: I really do like this lineup for what you're getting
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: fifty five dollars nine max. Outside of that, we have
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: the single inches are always solid this twelve dollars albatross, Well,
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: there's always different amounts of albatrosses. The payout truckures are
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: different too, so look at which one you're playing. This
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: three k albatross three hundred dollars up top to fifty
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: dollars at ten. Place like, I don't think this is
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: the best payout, genuinely, I don't think this.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Is the best contest.
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: But sometimes we've got like a six k albatross or
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: an exit on albatross, and that has a much better
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: payout in my opinion. So always take a look at
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: which twelve dollars lineup you're looking at, because I've seen,
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: I can I've made a mistake of entering the three
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: k contest when I wanted to enter the six k
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: contest or vice versa.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: So whatever you're.
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: Looking for, whether that's a more balance from one to ten,
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: whether that's heavy at the top, they have contests for you,
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: So just be aware of what you are looking at all. Right,
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: before we get into the glaring weaknesses, as I'd like
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: to call it, the players we want to see for tomorrow,
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: here are the tools you are going to use. These
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: showdown projections will be updated it's seven pm right now,
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: probably around maybe while I'm doing the stream. They should
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: be updated very soon. So once you get up on
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: the site, peep the showdown projections. Anyone in your in
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: your lineup that or in this pool that you might
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: want to make your lineup, go into the optimizer, start
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: them off short by points per dollar, sort by ownership,
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: whatever you want to do, whatever, whatever you want to
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: use our projections for.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: There's a way and there's a will to get that
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: shit done. This stone.
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: The stone will be updated within the next probably forty
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: minutes to an hour as well, where sometimes it will
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: highlight players that you just need to use, or highlight
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: great phades, great pivots. So use that stone, use what
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: the code that's in the description. It's also the top
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: of your screen. Ten percent off lifetime end code boots go.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: Over right here.
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: If you let single sport, just join me for PGA,
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: PGA plus Optimizer, Saber sim get a ton of good
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: knowledge here. Or if you want every single sport, why
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: not just get all access. Because it is Thursday and
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: college basketball is coming. But I don't think we dabble
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: in college basketball, but I'm sure the Dicord people do
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: I'm surely this cord people do. Nonetheless, MLB is coming,
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: that's for sure. I know a lot of a lot
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: of people play well at mlbdfs, not me. Just a
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: golf guy. Just a golf guy, all right. Next thing
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: I want to touch off it touch on is some
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: of the glaring weaknesses, some of the look at everyone's
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: stat see who did what owl they did it and
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: who could.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: Improve for tomorrow.
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: So Daniel Berger, like I said, solid off the tee.
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: I think he led the field on approach. He's got
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: two really really solid approach rounds back to back or
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: approach weeks. Remember what my player, the player that I
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: was on for round four of the Cognizant was Burger.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: We were round too early. We were one round too early,
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: of course.
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: So Berger a great showing today and a great stat
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: line going forward. Ludvig really solid to see this because
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: I was not high on his approach play.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, how could I have been.
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: It's been really bad for the last few weeks, and
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: it looked bad on Tuesday when I was there. So
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: good to see Ludwig finding something with the ball shriking.
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: I think there's a really solid profile going forward. Nothing
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: too crazy. One off the tee, one and a half
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: on approach, the putter was the putter was good today.
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: But I think he can gain another two strokes putting, like,
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: why can he? Colin Morrikala a zero around the green
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: and plus two and a half putting solid approach. If
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: he could hit a few more fairways, is he could
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: have a great round. And we know Colin Workaw is
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: very accurate. So I think Colin is a really really
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: good look now, this profile is one I'll be fading
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: for tomorrow. Jonathan Vegas and I know some people were
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: in the discord saying that they saw a.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: Poor Vegas report. I gave you a poor Vegas report,
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: and you got a poor Vegas day. Stat Wise, he.
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: Not great off the tee, very not very average on approach.
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: Was I gonna be able to tell you that Jonathan
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: Vegas was gonna gain three strokes around the green? No,
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: I'm sorry, I wasn't gonna tell you that and another
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: stroke and half on the putting surface. This is not
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: a sustainable stat line. I do not expect Johnny Vegas
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: to come close to another round of what sixty seven?
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: I just really really don't so. Cameron Young a really
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: solid stat line. A guy that I probably will be
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: wanting to look at tomorrow gained two and a half
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: strokes off the tea, another two on approach, and he
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: didn't really get hot in the greens yet, and we
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: know he can get scorched earth on the green. So
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: I really do like that profile from Cameron Young for
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: the guys at the top, some guys at the bottom
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: who I think could improve, Oh somewhere, Chris got her up.
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: I feel like every single week he has one of
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: these weeks where it's really good, really good, really good,
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: really bad. So I don't necessarily see this just turning
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: around this putter I'm talking about, because he'll have weeks
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: where his pudd's really bad, his iron's really bad, and
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: just one thing is not in the right spot for
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: got her up. So I wouldn't necessarily chase that putter
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: from got her up? Who else, who else? Who else
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: has a stat line where they could pop. Harris English
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: is finding things for sure, and I like this, Like
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: Harris English is generally a really good driver and didn't
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: even drive it that well today, still shot three hundred
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: par So if Harris can find a few more fairways,
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: drive a little better. That could lead to a five
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: under six under round. Maybe I do not mind that
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: at all. This Bud call around is something that I'm
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: gonna be fading for sure. I'm not that Bud Cawley
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: is a easy fade per se. But Law strokes off
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: the tee, law strokes on approach, all short game. Nothing
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: really direct home about like nothing glaringly horrible, but someone
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: that I really wouldn't be h be attacking attacking tomorrow.
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: This is a nice profile that con potentially bounce back.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Maverick McNeil.
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: He shot two hundred a day, super clean, about a
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: stroke off the tea, which is a ba. The blueprint,
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: the baseline is of what you want, and he lost
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: to half a shortgun approach. Maverick's been really solid with
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: the approach this year, and just like the last year
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: and a half of his golf career. So he had
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: a nice short game week, a nice putting or night day,
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: a nice putting day. I do not I would not
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: be surprised if Maverick pops pops a sixty five tomorrow
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: because these guys the blueprint with the driver, who's this
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: justin Rose, really solid approach day and drove it kind
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: of like shit. He had to have gotten really good lies, Like,
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: I don't see him this really being too sustainable getting
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: that much on approach while losing that much off the tee.
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: He had to have gotten really good lies and the rough,
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: which is not something I don't want to chase for tomorrow.
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: I don't mind this at all from Sahith, though. Sahith
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: gaining a little bit off the tea a little bit
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: on approach, he has the elite short game to gain
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: six in that category. So those are guys that I'm
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: looking for, potentially, not all official that I've talked about,
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: but potentially some guys you could see in in this
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: late plan also shout out Daniel Bennett making his what
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: is his debut freshman at Texas and shooting one under
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: at bay Hill, Like that's playing golf for sure.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Nico ended up shooting even par. That's funny. After he
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: was like, what did he do with this? Back nine?
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Bogie bogie eight on twelve? I did not see this.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: That's so funny. Damn thirty forty two.
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: That looks like one of my rounds. That actually looks
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: like one of my rounds, not when it's not today,
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: But it looks like one of my round.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: That's insane.
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: Jesus, all right, who else did something that we could
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: potentially chase for tomorrow. Bob Mack, No, not Bob mac
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: Nikolai Nikolay, for sure. Nikola I was about minus seven
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: ball striking, came with the bad driver. I tell you
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: guys how volatile he is. Short game was fine. If
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: he has one solid ball striking round he can we
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: know how low he can go. Look what he did
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: on Sunday, at Sunday, at wherever it was. It's cognizant classic.
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: So those are some guys, the guys that I like
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: to call glaring weaknesses, and that will lead us to
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: the one golfer that I am on. Drum roll, drum
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: roll command F type it in Corey Connors.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: Corey Connors is the one golfer that I am on.
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: We talked about him earlier in the week as a
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: guy with a good course fad, a guy.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: That I just is due to pop.
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: He's gonna pop soon enough. And he did have a
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: nice round today. And this this stat right here, the approach.
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: We know how good Corey Connors is on approach, and
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: it's if we're looking at like a linear linear map.
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: It's it's here, like it's getting there if and it's
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: been read, it's been read, it's been here. And now
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: we see the zero point eight game in one round,
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: we're due for zero one point four, one point four,
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: one point six two if we just keep slowly by
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: slowly waiting for this. Corey Connor's approach to go back
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: to where it's usually is He's gonna have a great round.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: And I love that he gained a little bit of
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: the greens.
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: Corey Connors gaining about a stroke per round, short game
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: is blessed, is beautiful for him. So Corey Connors is
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: the one golfer that I am on for tomorrow. And
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: as always, oh yeah, I see I see that those
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: nap comments like it's a true what are you gonna do?
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: We are going back.
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: To early guys tomorrow for sure. But like Jake Knapp
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: gets as gets withdrawn, luckily I'm not on them. I
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: feel I feel like I was on the last two withdrawals.
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: So but it's just part of the game. Sometimes you
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: get them, sometimes you don't. It's like sometimes in betting
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: when you're betting, like MLB MLB run lines a game
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: gets rained out and you're on the losing team and
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: you're like, yeah, let's go. This is avoid or you're
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: on the winning team and you're like, damn it, I
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: would this would have been an easy cash.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: So you win some, you lose some. Stay tuned.
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: The slate plan is coming up and it probably around
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: fifteen to twenty minutes once they get off the stream
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: and what else.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: As always, the song of
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: The day is going to be Running with Scissors by
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: ic Stars, And I'll be back tomorrow, probably around five
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: point thirty tomorrow for the Round three showdown, and as always,
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: let's ship it, catch you guys soon.