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Genesis Invitational - PGA Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | Single-Entry GPP Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: The systems going clear the lift up.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: What's up number one? Tyler Tambaline here aka Totaging Tambo
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: back for another edition of Leverage Lane PGA DFS edition
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: here on the ship at Nation YouTube station. We did
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: get through the technical difficulties, so we appreciate you guys
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: hanging out there with us for a few minutes. Make
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: sure to hit the thumbs up subscribe to the channel.
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: If you're watching a mobile, just turn off the live
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: chat for two seconds with the X hit the thumb
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: let it pop back up. It helps us out a
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: ton Alex. We got figured out, man, you know, at
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: the grandparents' house, so you know what happens. It happens,
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: my man, how you doing?
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: Kind of have it figured out? Still still wasn't able
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: to use my actual camera, so we're using the laptop
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: camera where we're standing up in a random room because
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: all the other rooms we're taking. My brother and his
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: fiance are also here, and she has what my grandfather
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: would call a real job. So I get booted to
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: finding the stranded place and here we are. It's gonna
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: be fun.
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: Anyway back to the real job. Baby, let's go. We
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: got the Genesis Invitational. This week, we're back to the
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: riv We love that, so we're gonna talk all through
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: the course, fit the weather. This show is not who
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: to play, it is how to play. We're definitely gonna
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: talk more about that. We'll talk about the chalk build
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: from a single entry perspective, how we can leverage that
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: a little bit. On the Scotty conversation again as usual,
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: we'll have one and done betting segment. At the end,
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: Alex and I will get to our lane for the
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: week and how we're handling things, and I'll start here Alex,
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: you know, just recapping from last week coming into this week.
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: You know this week still does have a modified cut.
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: I know a lot of people go from the no
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: cut now it's like this, Oh they think of it
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: as all it's kind of like a no cut though, right, No,
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: because it's we've definitely seen guys miss the cut in
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: this is what is it? Top fifty and ties anybody
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: within ten of seventy two total golfers? Got that?
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: Right?
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: Yes? Okay, what your thoughts on that?
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: Because go ahead, it might just be fifty without the
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: without the qualifier of being with intent of the lead.
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: I don't I can't remove that actually now that you
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: say that, yeah, yeah, but regardless, like we know, it's
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: a cut that most guys should make, but it's not
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: a cut that everybody is going to make.
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: And the fact that the cut exists, like it's just
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: a great addition to the tournament makes it much better
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: than the other signature events.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll go back to last week just for a second.
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: We always start with this, and remember, guys, if you're
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: watching this on replay or playback, if you're live here
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: with us, we appreciate you. But if you're watching it
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: on playback, leave a comment. Let us know any questions
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: you have or anything that you got from this episode
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: once we get through it. That was thought provoking. This
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: show is meant to be evergreen with review application and
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: the actual slate at hands so that you can take
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: it into the week ahead, which is what's exciting. Single
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: entry GPP focused. We will have some MME coverage as well.
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: But just going back to it here, I do want
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: to just show this comment from last week. This is
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: the winner from last week, Mike Thomas. You can reach
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: out for a free week. It says there is there
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: an optimal number of rounds played when conducting the statistical
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: analysis on a golfer, so that you're grabbing the best
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: possible picture of what a golfer is actually doing versus
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: what they've done. And you chimed in right away said
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: love this one. I thought this was a good topic
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: for next week, which is this week today. What was
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: your thoughts on this when you first saw then? How
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: do you want to handle answering this? Yeah?
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: I really like this this question for a couple reasons.
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: The first is just it's it's a very like well
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: thought out question of okay, and a well motivated question too, right,
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: Like we always love the questions that are about someone
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: improving their own process and allowing them to do like
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: their own research and really come to their own conclusions,
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: which is a really valuable thing in dfs because it's
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: naturally going to put you on some contrarian things if
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: all you're doing is getting your information in your place
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: from somebody else, like you're automatically getting more popular plays
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: that way. So I like the motivation of this question.
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: I like the thought process of this question, And then
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: I also think it has a really interesting answer, which
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: is not every skill set should be treated the same.
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: When when people build massa A very common thing to
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: do is across the board. I'm going to take their
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: last let's say sixty rounds and blend it with their
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: last twelve or something like that, Right, And that's not
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: how golf works. Driving, especially, is more predictive in small samples,
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: so you can add more and more recent form into driving.
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: You don't want to do that with putting, because with
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: putting you need like at least forty four rounds worth
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: of data before it's even remotely stable. So it's a
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: really cool question and it has a really unique answer,
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: and that makes it really fun to talk about.
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's allid I mean, anything else from
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: last week that you wanted to bring up? I know,
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: you know, we sort of went through everything here on
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: the show. The Scotty situation again is definitely gonna come
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: up today, so we can kind of lean there for
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: a second. Is you know this is the funny part,
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: right Scotty. If if the whole world watches the same thing,
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: If Scotty just played well on Thursdays, he'd win every tournament. Right,
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: But there's a butterfly effect. What if he he this week?
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: He could play amazing on Thursday and finish worse than
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: the last two events. He's like, Oh, I thought if
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: he just played well on Thursdays he would crush it. No,
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: it's not how it works. There's a butterfly effect to it.
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: He played bad on Thursday, played amazing on Sunday and
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: everything in between. It's still Scotty Scheffler. But obviously the
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: stats with him, everything that we know, and how good
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: he is as a whole, it'd be great if he
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: played good every day for the Scottie backers. It's not
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: always good for the Faders, but that's why their showdown
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: contests as well. Right, you can get in on the
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: action that way. Is there anything else you want to
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: take away last week's thoughts? I thought, you know that
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: episode that had a lot of people come back and
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: say solid stuff around everything that we went through. There
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: anything just that you had that came to mind from
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: last week on a review purposes.
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think. I think one of the other things
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: that really kind of caught me by surprise was justin
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: Rose's ownership. And I want to talk to this a
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: little bit because I I have never you know, been
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: on on shows of the magnitude of this one, and
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: with Pat Mayo that have been doing every Tuesday where
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: I actually have to include who I'm talking about as
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: a variable for my own ownership projections, right, And I've
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: always included like watching shows and taking note of who's
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: talking about which player. That has always been a part
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: of my ownership process. Now I just have to put
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: myself in that sample. And I think it's always like
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: really difficult to know what would Rose have been if
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: we didn't talk about Rose last week, if I hadn't
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: talked about him on Pat's show as well. My guess
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: is that he wasn't going to be eight percent like
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: we were kind of hoping for anyway, but he might
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: have been twelve or thirteen instead of the twenty one
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: percent that he got to in single actries. And he
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: also was like the second most popular one and done play.
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: So that was just an interesting thing and something I
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: want to talk through with you because you have obviously
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: been on shows of this magnitude for years, and so
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: how have youkind of navigated that thought of what I
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: say is going to affect the landscape? And just like
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: number one, how impactful do you think it is? And
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: then number two, how does it change the way that
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: you view ownership and what you expect from the field.
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: I think a couple of just you know, I'm gonna
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: this is why this show's funds. Guys like Buddy's talking,
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: you know, think about this stuff on the fly. I
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: think it. I think it actually impacts it way less
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: than we think. We do. Live in a bubble. But
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: I think actually what matters more is like certain angles.
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: And I'll say it like this because we've obviously had
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: deep conversations on this on this very show. The weather
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: angle thing is one that really drives it. Like you
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: have to adjust your projections, you have to adjust your ownership.
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: I know you do it for yourself over at FTN,
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: we do it over at Ship a Nation. The squad
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: is all over that. You know. Rest in peace to
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: the Big Guy in the Sky DJM. But when he
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: would hop on the emergency stream on Wednesday night, you
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: know first of all that that's the show that we
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: all miss and I let people talk about all the time.
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: There's no way to replicate James. Unfortunately, we would all
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: rather him be here. Trust me, I know a lot
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: of people saying that. It's like we were trying to
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: do the best we can to honor the guy and
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: do it through other shows and things that we're doing.
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: His team is still over at ship a Nation doing
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: the content as well. But that type of situation where
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: he would come on the emergency stream and say, okay,
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: I'm seeing this weather edge. It wasn't just the picks
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: and the one guy he's on all that stuff. It
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: was oftentimes how you're viewing the slate. Another one is
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: a skill set. I know you were just talking about
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: it in a different perspective. But if you came on
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: this week and it would be the blicke of effect
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: that somebody said that, I think that's a good one, right,
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: you know, if that happens. But if you came on
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: this week it said, look, man, it's wet. I'm taking
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: the easy route here. I'm just gonna target all bombers.
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: It's riv, it's wet, it's soaked. I'm gonna do it
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: this way. They should be able to hit more greens.
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: Around the greens not gonna be as important. I'm not
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: saying this is what you're gonna say, or anybody is.
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: I'm just saying that I find has a way bigger
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: effect than a pick or a play. Obviously a little
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: bit of a boost here, a little bit of a
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: boost there. It will happen. But I think to your
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: original point, and kind of the former point that you'd made,
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: was you were already taking shows into consideration even when
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: you weren't on certain shows or maybe not considering other ones.
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: I think that matters a whole lot more. And then secondly,
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: really quick because some of it's baked in. Yes, most
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: cases it is always baked in for like good projections
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: and ownership like you talk about, but just from a
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: general speaking standpoint, the projections really drive it a lot
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: more too. So when people say, well, how did this
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: value play get pumped so hard? Well, if you look
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: at data golf and establish the Run and all these
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: other sites that people are trusting, is the number one
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: source O, that must be the best projections. Everyone says
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: it is not always the case, but just noting it.
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: It's like for ownership specifically, certain things like that, but
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: those are driving factors again even more than what we
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: might say on the shows. That can just add to it.
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: So if someone was already leaning there now it can
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: push them a little bit further. Hopefully that gives you
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: some sort of context on how I think about it. Yeah,
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: I agree a lot there.
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: And I think one of the thoughts of how with
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: Rose was like, obviously, not everything that we say is
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: going to resonate with people as much as the next
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: thing that we say. And I think perhaps the driving
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: force Rose last week was the fact that we pointed
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: out that, like there was this very clear divide in
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: ownership projections where the guys who had already played really
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: well this year were the ones who were popular and
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: that really played out right. So like think of Rory
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: and Tommy, they both steamed or they both moonwalked to
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: like five percent or less in some of the bigger
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: single entries just because they hadn't played. And what we
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: pointed out about Rose was Rose actually fits the bill
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: of somebody who's played really good golf already this year,
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: but he's not being he's not projected to be owned
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: anywhere near as much as some of the other guys
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: who have played really good golf. And so I think
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: immediately people just like bought into that thought of, oh,
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: I can get the guy who's in great form playing
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: great golf at the ownership as if he hasn't been
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: playing this year. And so I think it was just
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: one of those things where we found something that really
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: resonated with people with Rose and that's why it seems
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: so much. And it's not just because like whatever we
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: say is going to catch on.
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: Agreed to one hundred percent. And the last thing I'll
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: sayd on that part is just too early in the season.
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: Like you've probably heard me talk about this on these
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: very shows in the past as well. And I don't
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: think last week was necessarily one, so I'm not rating
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: it based off of that. But there is most certainly
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: what I call, you know, quote unquote lazy weeks, where
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: it means the content is driving the picks and the
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: plays and that sort of stuff even more than usual
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: because people are saying, look, man, it's the super Bowl week.
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: I don't got much to do. Not last week, but
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: just noting like that week as an example, I'm just
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: gonnaice the week before a major, especially after a major,
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: it's like, all right, the Masters did or didn't go
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: my way, but I had a ton of money invested.
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: Most likely because the average person is putting more in
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: because the bigger tournaments and all that good bad or
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: the ugly. If you win, you're on a high, you know,
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: doesn't mean you sometimes when you're on a high, you
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: pay attention less. You're just feeling it right, that momentum
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: feeling if you lose a bunch or more than you
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: plan to lose. Like again, people can sometimes play outside
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: their limits. I highly recommend against that, but just noting it.
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: That's where sometimes people say, ah, screw it this week,
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: I'm just gonna play a little less, listen to a
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: couple podcasts and go with it. And then you see
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: the ownership condense that much more.
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: Yeah, And I think the point there it's not even
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: so much that it's a lazy week. But I think
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: we've talked about this already. But like, we have a
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: bunch of people with PGA DFS who are DFS players
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: who want to keep playing DFS or they try PGA
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: for the first time, Whereas like at the start of
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: the NFL season, it's a bunch of NFL fans who
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: are trying a new game. So this time it's it's
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: people who've already played the game just trying to apply
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: it to a new sport. And so they're familiar with DFS,
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: they're less familiar with the actual players and who's good
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: and what should I care about and so they hear, oh,
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: this is a very good player who might be low owned,
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: they instinctively know, okay, low owned guys who have winning equity,
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: that's a very valuable play. And so I again, like
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: I think it's it's something just about rows that really
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: resonate with people and less about just the fact that
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: we were talking about.
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, just knowing this too. In high stakes, I agree
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: with everything you just said there, But in the higher stake,
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: smaller fields even like what we're talking about typically applying
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: it to like one hundred dollars single lutry with fifteen
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: K or the two hundred dollars single untry with fifty k,
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: like those are just contests we're playing weekly and you
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: know one or the other or both. And to me,
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: that's a setup where it's almost the opposite effect, to
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: be honest, because people's it's actually not as much. I
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: know some of the Nosebleeds players that we talk with
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: my guy Kenny, things like that. It's like these lineups
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: you can just figure out off the projection. So those
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: are just so built. Someone something is like how did
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: Bridgeman get to this percentage or whatever? Go look at
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: what his projection is at the most popular projection sites,
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: and there you go. That's your answer. So it's like,
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: that's the benefit of us doing a show like this
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: and why we wanted to do it, because we're seeing
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: it from all angles. We're seeing what you might not see.
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: Not everybody watching the show even has ownership projections or
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: player point projections from any site outside of maybe one
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: of ours or both of ours versus the competitors. So
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: it's like we can see it all and then talk
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: through it, and that's the benefit of that. I did
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: want to cover one more thing because I didn't have
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: a lot on that comment. Again, I think it was
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: a really good one from Mike Thomas. You handled it
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: quite well and liked it, so I wanted to get
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: your take on it. I agree on everything you said
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: on that one. Well we'll see we agree on everything
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: this week. We don't always, but just noting it before
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: we get to the genesis. I want to have a
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: quick conversation on this, and I'm trying to bring like
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: a DFS tip every week or like something from Mad
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: or good discussion I saw on the discord and did
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: you see I know it's a single entry show, but
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: have you seen last week. In this week, the five
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: dollars drive the Green contest on DraftKings. Did you get
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: a chance to check it out? It's very solid, But
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: I'll just get a quick talk from you on it
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: then I'll go into my point. What what did you see?
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: So what stood out to you? Well?
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: Why don't you actually start because I yeah, I saw
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: I saw a couple people in my discord actually talking
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: about it.
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: So so the main thing is it's a five dollars
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: mme contest, which people love. But typically in the past
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: it's been like twenty percent or more to first, like
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: really bad panel structure. Maybe sometimes they pay twenty five
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: to thirty percent of the field, which I'm not I
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: know some people like that. I'm just saying, obviously that hurts.
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: What can happen up top if they're going to pay
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: eight bucks to everybody at the bottom. So what they
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: kind of did. It looks like roughly around twenty percent
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: of the field is paid. They went with ten percent
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: the first thirty thousand and ten percent of first I
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: believe to ten for three thousand, But it's a thirty
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: k ten k, which I'm fine with. By the way,
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: I still like the brain it's like first is worth
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: more than second, but second and down is still really
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: solid tent. That's still ten of first. You're still getting
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: less people paid, so your min cash is more like
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: it's all very solid. So it's not even about structure.
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: Everyone knows what they like in structure by now. I
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: think DFS has advanced in the year twenty twenty six
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: enough where people kind of understand that's a good contest
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: based on looking at that. But I actually want to
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: talk about it from another angle, and I'm not I
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: don't want to say, like be dramatic and say this
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: is dangerous. I'm just noting it as like I think
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: there's a trap people fall into, and I wanted to
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: discuss it because I do one on one calls and
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: mentorship and things like that, and I got the Mastermind
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: project and all the members over at ship in Nation.
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: You see this in your discord, I'm sure, but I
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: saw a lot of people say, man, what a great tournament.
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: I better mme this week, And it's like, I really
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: do caution against that, because if you always play single entry,
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't just let a good contest structure make you
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: all of a sudden an mme player vice versa. I
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: wouldn't say if I'm an MME player, I just automatically
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: run and play a higher dollar single entry. I really
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: do think you should let the week come to you.
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: And I think what I mean by that is, this
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: is a seventy two person contest. Or like golfers in
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: this in this tournament, if you like three golfers in
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: the nine k range, three in the eight, ten, and
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: the seven, you could probably build a pretty solid single
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: entry or a three max or play it like a
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: single entry or whatever. You're not really you don't have
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: an angle you're attacking. You don't have really anything. And
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: I know some people say more lineups the better. I'm
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: not saying four or against that. I'm just saying I
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: actually think it can be costly to some people. Like
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: they get into that they actually have a decent core.
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: They kind of just had a structured core. They spray
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: and prey on their remaining spots, and their best finished
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: in the five dollars like one thirtieth, and it pays nothing,
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: and they might get back a little bit of their money,
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: or may lose a little bit of their money. They
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: could have built a really strong single entry that doubles
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: that same amount of money on one lineup in the
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: two hundred dollars single, but really gave them a shot
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: at fifty kN And I think that's the difference where
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: people don't look at that stuff enough to say, like
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: the fifty K could really change thirty and fifty both awesome,
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: ten K for second awesome. I get all that it's
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: all good on two hundred dollars either way, but forty
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: lineups in the five dollars when you have no process
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: for that, you don't even know how to really use
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: an optimizer, and you're doing it just based on contest structure.
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: Something can be a good contest structure, and it doesn't
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: mean it's good for you. So just keep that in mind.
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: You can find good contest structures for you. And so
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: I don't know, I'll get your thoughts on that, but
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: I just think it's something that people get caught in
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: a trap a little bit of letting the contest dictate
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: their week, but they really have the feeling of a
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: good single entry already built or ready in their mind.
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: Yes, I very much agree with your larger point, and
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: I think the way I would phrase it is I'm
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: always looking for the best contests of the of the
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: contest type that I already play and that I like.
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: And only when I don't have the kind of contest
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: that I actually want do I then look for, Okay,
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: well what else can I play this week? So it's
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: not about like how good the contests are outside of
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: what I want to do. It's just do I have
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: contests that I like playing in that you know, really
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: fit in my own strategy.
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'll have one more point because we try
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: and wrap up the first twenty minutes to get onto Genesis.
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: But you've said this before, and I want to rehit
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: this because again, not everybody goes back and watches every
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: episode or they think it's only for the week at hand.
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: We've had a ton of evergreen content. Even if you
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: just watched the first twenty minutes of the episode, you're
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: gonna get You're gonna gain a ton. But just this,
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: it's stuff like this. And one thing you've said too
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: that just you said it again in a different way
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: is a lot of people go after the satellites for
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: a MME contest and it's like you are a single
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: you only typically play single entry. Don't you told me
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: you don't feel good about mmy. You don't know what
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: to do, you don't have to use an optimizer, you're uncertain,
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: and then when you get eighteen tickets you struggle through it.
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: You've said this yourself. You won't even look at like
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: a mega necessarily for something that's a mega with a
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: five thousand say. I'm not saying you wouldn't do it,
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: but it's like that's different to you. You'd rather for
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: the forty four to forty four with six or seven
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: hundred people where you can exploit it. It's against less
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: pro entries, et cetera. Even though they're big boy buy
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: ins and their big prize pool million dollar prizes for first,
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: et cetera. It's still better for you to go after
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: the forty four to forty four ticket by the way
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: you typically play and sticking to your guns to not
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: only win that satellite, but then be able to typically
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: apply a very similar approach to the tournament you're about
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: to take it into when you do win it, are
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: fortunate enough to win a seat into it. I don't
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: if you want to add to that, but you've definitely
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: said that in the past, and you just kind of
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: said it again too.
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, unfortunately, like there aren't you know, large
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: dollars single entries that you can satellite into. But yes,
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: I very much try and target the megas that you
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: know they have that I only have to beat six
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: hundred seven hundred people, rather than going for like the
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: Wildcat where I need to beat three thousand people, or
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: you know, I don't do any of the like ten
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: cent qualifiers, ten cent satellites trying to get into the
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: twenty dollars you know MILLI where I have to beat
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty thousand or something like that. So yeah,
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: I very much agree with that. The second thing I
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: wanted to say about the five dollars there there are
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: things that I really like about it. So you mentioned
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: it's ten percent to first. The twenty five dollars, for
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: comparison is twenty percent to first. Now, the main effect
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: of that is in the twenty five dollars, you have
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: two hundred thousand dollars going to first place. You have
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: six thousand dollars going to tenth place, so a really
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: really small percentage. In the five dollars, you have thirty
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: thousand going to first, you have three thousand going to
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: tenth that's kind of the structure that I like. I
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: want to see top heavy contests, but at the top
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: I want them to be flat, if that makes sense.
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: So what we see there is tenth gets ten percent
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: of what first place gets. If tenth was getting ten
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: percent of what first place got in the twenty five dollars,
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: they'd be getting twenty thousand dollars. Instead they only get
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: six thousand. So that's an indicator of Okay, this is
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: really really top heavy, even at the top, and when
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: when you have to beat forty seven thousand other people,
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: that's when it becomes you know, it's nothing the expected
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: value changes, it is just the likelihood of actually realizing
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: whatever edge you have in that contest is extremely, extremely low.
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: So I like the five dollars more. But there are
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: still things about the five dollars that I don't like. So,
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: for example, you get two x for a me in cash. Now,
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: I think the casual DFS player, most DFS players, will
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: like that because they like, you know, making something that
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: seems at least a little bit significant when you me
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: in cash. For context, the twenty five dollars one point
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: six x for a me in cash, So it doesn't
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: feel as good when you me in cash, but in
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: the long run, min cashing doesn't affect you, Like your
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: min cash rate at the end of the year is
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: not going to define whether you had a profitable season,
• 21:31
  Speaker 3: a losing season, whatever. Your in cash rate's going to
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: be irrelevant. All that's going to matter is how often
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: did you finish in the top one percent, And when
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: you finished in the top one percent, did you get
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: lucky and get the takedown or did you have to
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: settle for second place and ten thousand dollars instead of
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: thirty thousand dollars something like that. So the point there
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: being when you see two x to men cash, it's like,
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: that feels good when you mean cash, but that's still
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: like a considerable amount of money that could have instead
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: been going to the top and going to the outcomes
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: that you're really chasing and optimizing your lineups for. So
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: maybe it could have been like thirty five thousand to
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: first and thirty five hundred to tenth if they went
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: with the one point six x men cash. Maybe it's
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: not that powerful, maybe it's even more you know, I'd
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: have to actually do the math, but yeah, it's worth
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: pointing out that, like is the five dollars a good contest. Yes,
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: Is it some like a magical contest that you're gonna
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: make money in just because you play it because it's structured, Well,
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: absolutely not. It's it's a fifteen point nine percent break.
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: For example, Like it's still a big rake if if
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: they came out with a five dollar that was like
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: five percent rake and now it's it's like one point
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: five x to men cash and there's so much money
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: at the top, but it's flat at the top. Now,
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: maybe you can make a case that even if you
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: don't MMM, you should play it because the rake is
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: less than usual and so it's more likely that you
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: find whatever edge you have. Sure, but as long as
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: the rake is the same and min cash is getting
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: this mighty like it again, it's it's not some magical
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: contest where you're you're going to profit just because you played.
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: You're still most likely going to lose money playing.
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I agree with all that. That's why
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: I said, like people have to recognize that. But I
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: think just when people you know, can put themselves in
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: that spot, like now, I got to switch it up
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: this week because there's a contest I really like one.
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: It'll probably exist again. It was just here last week,
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: it's here again. Now it's filling quickly. All the contests are,
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: the demand is there for pgadfs. Just keep that in mind.
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: One other thing I'm gonna plug down and quickly note
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: is just that's another thing about if you are playing MMY.
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: We focus on single entry, but the portfolio diversification. Now
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: this is only in starter packages or above. But that's
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: another trap I'm just gonna point out is when people say, oh,
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: I can't believe in the twenty dollars or the twenty
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: five dollars mmy. You got to come, you know, at
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: least top five to get your money back, it's not
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: really true. Because anybody that's building that with an optimizer
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: that has some sort of you know, in this case,
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: there's simulations built in, and we're using portfolio diversification. Your
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: portfolio is probably going to be lined up to where
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: you're not just gonna get one strong finish. It's going
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: to be a portfolio of finishes. And to Alex's point,
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: like the min cash is the one point six X
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: is the things those all start to add up on
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: top of the big finish, you're gonna be more disappointed
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: that you came tenth for six thousand, and you're like, damn,
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: I was, you know, nine spots away from one hundred
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: and ninety four thousand more dollars in that tournament. Obviously
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: that's gonna sting more than that. All right, let's move on.
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: Let's get to this week. Let's talk a little bit
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: about this. We are back at riv We've got you know,
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: some weather coming in. Where do you want to kick
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: this thing off with course fit and weather as we
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: usually do. What do you got for us on that?
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, let's start with course fit because I think this
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: is a pretty kind of fun discussion and it leads
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: to some interesting strategy as well. So, this course fit
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: model is a really strong one. It's a really reliable one.
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: One of the reasons why it's as strong and reliable
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: as it is is because we've had pretty consistent conditions,
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: especially over the last like three or four years here.
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: This is very consistently Riviera has very consistently had some
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: of the firmeest greens on tour, and the firmness of
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: those greens kind of explain the course fit model in full.
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: So we have a boost on driving distance, we have
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: a boost on driving accuracy. We have a slight knock
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: on approach play, a big knock on around the green play,
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: and then putting is pretty neutral. So why do I
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: say that the firmness kind of explains everything here? Well,
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: the greens are so firm that you need both distance
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: off the tee, but then you also need like height
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: and spin control coming into these greens, both of which
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: can be explained by how fast you can swing a
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: golf club. But it also means that you need to
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: be hitting fairways. So that's why you get both the
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: boost on the predictive value for distance and accuracy, and
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: then from there, because the greens are so firm, players
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: just have less control. They have less control about where
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: they miss, they have less control about whether they can
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: actually attack pins. A lot of the time, like even
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: if you are a long hitter in the fairway, if
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: it's a front pin, you're boll's gonna land by the
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: hole and bound fifteen to twenty feet past the hole,
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: and like that's as close as you can get. So
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: that's why approach play single goes down a little bit,
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: and then around the greens like you're just kind of
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: screwed sometimes, right, So you, you have less control about
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: where you miss when you miss, because a lot of
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: the time you can hit a quality shot into the green,
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: it just bounds through, especially and you're if you're coming
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: from the rough, you have no chance of stopping the ball.
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: It's going to go through the green. And a lot
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: of the time, like you hear players talk about you
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: know it, you'll hear them with the caddy and let's say, okay,
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: well we can't go long here. We can't go long here.
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: A lot of the time at riv you have no
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: control over whether or not you go long because you
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: either have to purposely miss short or it's going to
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: end up long. So you end up with guys who
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: are short sighted a lot more than usual here. You
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: end up with a lot of pitch and chip shots
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: where you put them on a normal golf course with
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: pretty receptive greens and they're going to be able to
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: stop the ball by the hole. But the greens are
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: so firm and fast here, and then also they can
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: you know, you can be short sighted going downhill to
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: a pin and you just have no chance of stopping
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: the ball. So that's why short game signal doesn't matter
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: a whole lot. This year, though, it's going to be
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: really soft, like the course looks like it's been flooded
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: almost in some places, and so we should expect more
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: receptive greens. And the more receptive greens mean it maybe
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: won't be as important to hit fairways. You're going to
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: be able to hold some greens even coming from the rough.
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: When you do have approach shots from the fairway, even
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: the front pins are going to be accessible. And then
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: when you miss around the green, number when you're gonna
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: have more control over where you miss. So the short
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: game shots that you're going to have are going to
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: be easier. But then second of all, you're gonna be
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: able to stop the ball with height around the green,
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: You're gonna be able to spin the ball more around
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: the green, so short game skill will matter more. It's
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: just like a really interesting puzzle of Okay, put all
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: this together, it's probably likely that accuracy is going to
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: matter a little bit less than it has. It's almost
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: certainly true that approach play is going to matter more.
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: But I really have no idea whether around the green
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: is going to matter more or less. Because when guys
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: have short game shots, it is going to be more predictable.
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: Whether they can get it up and down or not,
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: but they might have fewer short game shots because it's
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: going to be easier to hit and hold the greens
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: this week. So very interesting puzzle. Curious to hear your thoughts.
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: About it all. Yeah, we got our guy Matt Gannon
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: out of the course and it rained out the first day.
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: He got to get out there the second day with
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: a bunch of the golfers. Talked to some of the caddies,
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: all that stuff breaking down. He's had some interesting stuff
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: that kind of you know, some correlate, some maybe a
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: little bit different, but just on the high level. Obviously
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: you can go to the the sided ship and get
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: the Boots report boots bullets. But he said, like usually
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: guys are grinding around the green like crazy there. You know,
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: obviously he's been in the past and things like that.
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: He said that that wasn't really the case this year
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: because it's so wet right now, and obviously that's what
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: they're sort of the mid to long irons the wedges
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: and spinning them in and that sort of stuff. Kind
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: of said, that's what they're looking at, but said right now,
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: you know, as people know that have been out there,
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: just with how wet it is, it probably takes to
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: the weekend right to even get to sort of what
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: we would where we could get old riv or you know,
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: what we're used to there, which will matter because that's
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: where the money lines up is on the weekend. But
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: you know, getting the guys there first, it's sort of
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: that type of stuff. And I know you were you
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: were talking some stuff earlier with the approach game, and
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: you know, I'm certainly looking at that as well, Like
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: you said, like mid to long irons for the guys
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: that are back further on those par fives, the wedges
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: in things like that. Is there anything else that comes
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: to mind for you or anything with that weather report
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: that sort of makes you think of it in another
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: way or how you can look at a certain skill set. Maybe, Yeah.
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: So I think the other factor is the weather does
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: look pretty extreme for tomorrow, and it's weird because like
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: early on in the day it could be rainy, it's
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: going to be really cold, and it might not be
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: that breezy. And as the day progressive it does warm
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: up a little bit, it looks like it dries up,
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: but then the wind really gets there. And so I'm
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: really curious to see what the field ends up doing.
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: Don't yet have a good idea of how the field
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: is going to treat this. But if the field goes
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: one direction and says, you know, okay, I think I'd
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: rather have them playing in rain and cold than the
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: wind in the afternoon, or they say I want the warmer,
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: drier weather in the afternoon, that could lead to a
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: pretty big advantage because number one, it looks like the
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: weather's only going to be really impactful on one of
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: the four days, and so it's kind of cappedive of
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: how impactful it can be anyway. But number two, like
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: I kind of think those the elements cancel each other
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: out right, like the cold and rain early balances with
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: the higher wins late, and I don't really see an
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: edge either way. So if the field does, then I
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: think we could get some under owned guys just by
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: going the other direction.
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and even on day one, I guess, like, is
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: what a lot like what I've seen at least a
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: lot of people looking at like the Thursday morning stuff,
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: there is like that short I know, you look at
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: the weather report, you know this morning you're seeing like
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: a two to three hour window where it looks like
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: they can get out, but that that is the two
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: hour window of like the I don't know, Matsiyama goes
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: out at nine am or whatever, it is roughly close
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: to that. It's like, well, he's gonna get that window, supposedly,
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: but it's like, what about I don't know who's right
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: behind him, who's somebody at you know, Fitzpatrick, is that
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: ten twenty is it's an hour twenty minutes? Yes, it matters,
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: but how much? And you know, try to figure that
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: stuff out. I'm going to go back to a couple
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: of weeks ago real quick.
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: It is with noting that this is the first time
• 30:42
  Speaker 3: this year that we're not seeing split teas. We're just
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: seeing straight tea times. So the first tea time ten
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: to fifteen local time, last tea time three o'clock local time,
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: So there is a wider spread this week than than
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: what we've had in the past few weeks off, so obviously,
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: like it's just one course instead of the two courses
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: to start, So that I think, I think is interesting
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: and it does mean that like if the field does
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: see an advantage to one side, then they might go
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: with it. The other thought here and where I do
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: think there might be a strategy we're taking is what
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: if the rain early in the morning is too too
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: much rain for them to play through and we actually
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: get a weather delay and now the later tea times
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: they're starting the event not in the heavy winds of
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: Thursday afternoon, but in the calmer, no no rain, you know,
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: Friday morning, and maybe they get an edge that way.
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: So if anything weatherwise like that's probably what I'm looking at,
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: just to see if what if what if they get
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: bumped to Friday and don't have to tee it up
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: at all on Thursday.
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, certainly possible, And I think that's part of the
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: you know, the plan if you're building for that roll
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: that way. We talk about your lane and you know
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: our lane. If that's your lane, run with it. I
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: think that's fine. But for me, I'll be blending, you know,
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: going back to what I was gonna say, is just
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: going back to the week that we looked at. It's
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: to me, it's unless you're getting these like severe wins,
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: it's just it's factored in. Like I said, it's built in.
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: If anything, I'm gonna look if it's being you know,
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: the classic pumb we alwa was used if it's being
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: overblown and it's actually causing somebody else to maybe moonwalk
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: because of this, or somebody else to steam because of this,
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: and be like, really do I want them at this
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: price or this range when I could just do this
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: and I know you took quite quite a solid advantage
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: from that last time, I would have been like, at
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: the end of your final thoughts, was like, man, it
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: makes no sense, Like these guys are like fifteen to
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: twenty percent higher owned than the guys I actually wanted
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: to play, and I just don't see it being significant enough.
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: And it didn't. You know, you ge ended up having
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: tons of those lineups that did find that week, not
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: just yours, but saying like other people that played that way,
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: So I think it's fine. The other thing is like
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: Scotty is one of the later Like if you look
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: at Rory again out on the locals in front of me,
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: but Rory is out almost two and a half hour
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: I think two and a half hours exact before Scotty
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: any three thousand dollars cheaper. How does that affect things?
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: Right now? A lot of the sites are just saying, oh,
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be kind of close between those guys. But
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: does this to my our original point on this episode
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: talking through it, does this make it where people are like, yeah,
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: well I'm gonna risk the weather and play the guy
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: in the morning, and Rory saves me three thousand bucks.
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: And now you see Scotty come back from what we
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: saw him be at versus that Scotty's history, you know, like,
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: is it the best? He's good, obviously, but it's not great.
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: So it's like things like that. I don't know if
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: you see anything like that. But right now, as far
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: as early ownership projections, you know, again we only have
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: a day, but it's a Callie swing, so we have
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: till tomorrow to tinker. I do think we still see
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: it pretty spread out amongst early and late tea times,
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: at least what I'm seeing right now.
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I very much agree with that. I
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: think part of that is because at this point of
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: the week, like people haven't even really dug into Okay,
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: well who's teeing off when? And so that that's the
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: kind of thing that usually gets reflected Wednesday night. But
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: let's talk about Scotty and Rory ownership because I don't
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: want to like beat a dead horse by having this
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: exact same conversation week after week. But it's true that
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: getting the top of the board right in ownership is
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: crucial to getting literally everything else right ownership wise. So
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: if we can't nail down the top, we're going to
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: be wrong at least in some key areas the rest
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: of the way. And so last week what ended up
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: happening was the field kind of viewed Rory, even though
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: he was the defending champion, as this kind of no
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: man's land where we mentioned it, like I think in
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: the two hundred dollars single he ended up three point
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: six percent owned er something like insanely insanely low like that,
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: and Scotty was pretty much right where we had him
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: around twenty six percent over at FTN, and it was
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: because the guys who had been playing and playing well
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: this year just soaked up all the ownership, and people
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: preferred balanced builds. I really don't know what people are
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: gonna do with Rory this week, So I think my
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: question is kind of twofold for you. Number one. Do
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: you think his ownership this week steams back up because
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: people saw how low owned he was last week and
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: they think, oh my god, if he's going to be
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: that low owned again, I have to use it. Or
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: number two, do you think that his ownership was just
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: that low because he hadn't played yet in the US
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: this season, and now that people saw him one week,
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: he played pretty good golf, made some bad mistakes, but
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: you also made a ton of birdies. Then now they're
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: just back in and he's going to be as owned
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: as we expect him to be last week. Or do
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: you see like the exact same thing happening, because the
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: weird thing about these signature events is it's pretty much
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: like the exact same logical puzzle that it was a
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: week ago, right, Like the vast majority of guys are
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: playing again, the vast majority of guys are really similar
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: price text to what they were last week. You've got
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: guys like Morikawa, who jumped way up in price since
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: he won, but like the Scotty Rory, Tommy Shoffley, Henley Hideki,
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: like they're all basically the exact same price. The guys
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: who were in the sevens are pretty much the exact
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: same guys. So is it just going to be that, Okay,
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: Rory's the odd man out when its price like this?
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, one thing, I'll say for sure. Again, just feels
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: like it early on at least is you know, people
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: have seen enough from Scotty now Y and Tommy stuff.
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: We kind of called that last week of like it's
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: just one of those things where you know, sometimes at
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: those prices and the first time out and all that
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: type of thing. But with Scotty now I've just heard
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: way too much of like there's you know, if he
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: just plays a good Thursday, it's Scotty's he's been. He's
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: been able to finish third and stuff without doing anything else.
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: And the other thing is with Scotty is just going
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: down the board. I had it here a second ago. Apologies,
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: but if you look down, it's like whoever you want
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: to bring into the mix, Stevens, Final, Bridgeman, Berger, Thigala, Rogers,
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: some projection sites like you know, if you got Girard
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: is only seventy two. Scotty lines are easy to build,
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: so I actually I would, and we're gonna get there
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: in a second day. I'm not like trying to go
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: against your question or avoid it. I'm saying, but like,
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: I think the chalk build is Scotty this week, because
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: I think he fits fine with the you do Scotty
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: Gerard and then let's go from there. But to me,
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: like those two just fit in so easily, and people
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: are more comfortable with some of these six k guys.
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: There's also people again who think of this as a
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: non cut, even though it is not the case. Like
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: we talked about off the top, it's just just noting
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: that stuff, So just thinking about it off the top,
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: that's part of it. I think Rory still comes along
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: a little bit more, maybe even more than Tommy. I
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: think there's always that thing of like Tommy, you know,
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: the best buy pricing, he needs to be like ninety
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: nine hundred or less to be chok. If Tommy's ninety
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: five hundred or ninety four hundred this week, he's really
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: chalk because then he fits almost any type of build.
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: At ten three, he's gonna garner ownership. It's just how
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: much and how many people spending up to him. Don't
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: just find the one thousand for Rory. There's a lot
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: of ways to find the Rory money. I think the
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: bigger decision is when people have to do almost like
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: the week, you know that I was against you on this,
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: Now I'm all in on this with you. It's like
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: if you go if you go Scotty, Gerard and Stevens,
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: that's like Rory Hideki and someone in the higher sevens.
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: It's like a serious difference where more people would side
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: to that. But because they're building the full lineup out
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: and they've already got Scotty and Girard and feel so comfortable,
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: it's I think they still lean that way more than
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: the other one. Well, I think it's better, and you
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: probably think it's better. It's also are not as comfortable
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: for people for the overall build when they're like, now
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: I'm leaving off Scotty or I'm not playing Gerard advice
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: and whatever they end up doing so long way of
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: saying it, but I definitely think Scotty is the chalk
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: build this week.
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: Okay, So then here's my next question, because I'll kind
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: of read you the names that we have between let's
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: say like fifteen and twenty five percent over at FTN.
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: So far we've got Scotty and Rory just under twenty,
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: Tommy Shoffley, HITDECKI pushing twenty, can't lay see WU got
• 38:29
  Speaker 3: her up? Jake Knapp, Matt Fitzpatrick. If you are right
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: that Scotty is the chalk build, then we are too
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: low on him at eighteen percent for single entries. If
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: he's twenty five to thirty percent, then some or most
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: of the guys that I just rattled off are going
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: to come in lower than we currently have projected. Of
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: the names that I just mentioned, and I can read
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: through them again if you need me to, who do
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: you think slips through the cracks and ends up ten
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: percent because the Scotty steam just makes them like? The
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: field can't use all these guys right, And so essentially
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: what our projections are saying right now is the field
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: has too many guys in the eight K, nine K,
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: even low ten K range that the field really like,
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: really wants to play with conviction. There are too many
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: of those guys to then also allow for Scotty to
• 39:15
  Speaker 3: be the chalk building, to be thirty percent owned in
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: sing lentry something like that. If we're wrong about that,
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: then Scotty ends up being higher. Who do you think
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: we're most likely wrong about?
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: What are the names that I can use?
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: Rory, Tommy Softley, Hitdecky, Can't lay Sea Wu, got her up,
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: Nap Fitzpatrick.
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: I think like Tommy Sea Wu got Her Up, I
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: think Nap holds, but I think those other three could
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: just be like guys people want to get to, but
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: maybe not as much. Like I said, the hard part
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: for me with just going here for a second with
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: Tommy is it's only a thousand bucks more like there's
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: so many ways to find Rory money there, so I
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: can't get away. I can't use Rory in that example,
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: but I can definitely use Tommy see wu. I think
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: the problem there is too many people. I mean, can't
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: lay you gotta play? Can't They look at what he
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: did on Sunday and you know what his RIV record
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: looks like. So can't lay is a big one and
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: done pick, which we'll get too later. I know he's
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: gonna be big because of that. And then you got
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: other guys around him like Xander's just above, Marikawa off
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: the wind Hideki who people sometimes like, or going down
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: and then going down. Well, I see it kind of
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: balanced right now between got Her Up and Nap. I
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: think people still choose like Nap Fitzpatrick. I think they
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: go down to McNeely Harris English like those. I know
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: those are quite different in price six seven hundred now,
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: but just noting it. That's where I see that happening.
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: So those will be three at least to me that
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: stand out as and not saying they get no ownership,
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: but a little bit more held in check. I think
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: you can see a ten to fifteen range, depending maybe
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: even lower in single entry versus what we currently see
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: and see. Wu would be one where people have been
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: playing him. Man, are they really gonna stick with him here?
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: He's got Cantley, Morikawa, Headeki Xander, cam Young, got her
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: up Nap, He's in between all of them.
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: I think that they will. I'll tell you this. If
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: they don't, I'm gonna be really interested because he still
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: projects really well and there are few players who like
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: you mentioned it briefly, this is a golf course where
• 41:04
  Speaker 3: you end up with fewer wed shots one hundred tow
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: hundred and fifty yard shots than usual and basically all
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: of those shots go to the mid and long irons,
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: and Seawu is dominant with his mid irons, He's dominant
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: with his long irons. He's like barely above average with
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: his wedges. So he really benefits in the course fit
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: from that perspective. So if he is one of the
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: guys who's slipping into the cracks. I'll be interested. It's interesting.
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: My thought is, actually, if I'm wrong about Scotty and
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: Scotty does come in twenty to twenty five to thirty,
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: I think it's coming mostly from Rory and shoftly, because
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: I do think that there's just this there's a possibility
• 41:44
  Speaker 3: that this current pricing where you have Rory is like
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: this very clear tear break above all the other guys
• 41:52
  Speaker 3: except for Scotty. And then if you're and then there's
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: like this mindset of Okay, well, if I'm already gonna
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: go to this different tier of pricing, I may as
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: well just go to Scotty because at that point it's
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: only another three thousand, and obviously like three thousand dollars
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: matters a lot. But in the minds of many, I
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: think if they're going outside of just the you know,
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: the low nine, mid nine, super balanced builds, then they
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: may as well get to Scotty. And so I think
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: there's a chance that we're just going to see as
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: long as the pricing stays this way, that Rory's ownership
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: is kind of capped. And and that's really intriguing, especially
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: because yeah, he played last week, but it's not like
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: he was dominant, it's not like he played really really
• 42:31
  Speaker 3: good golf. So I do think there's a chance that
• 42:34
  Speaker 3: Rory is the guy who's who's just super low and
• 42:37
  Speaker 3: compared to where he's currently projected. If we're wrong about Scotty,
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: I think Xander could get the same sort of thing,
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: because like, Xander hasn't shown us much of anything except
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: for the Zozo or whatever he won in the fall.
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: So the difference is, yeah, I agree, but the difference
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: is for Xander's projections Darling. So he's gonna show up,
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: and especially in the balance builds, you'll be I mean,
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: I think for sure, I honestly think if people go,
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: if the people don't go Scotty or Rory, I also
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: think they're more likely to start with Zander just because
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: he's ninety eight hundred dollars and you can do whatever
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: you want after that.
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: Is he a projection Starling?
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah yeah for us he excites right now, and yeah, data.
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: Golf does have him projected as one of the stronger values.
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: So yeah, this is a balance build with those guys.
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: So I guess that's the other thing is like if
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: you if you are going the balance build. I actually
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: think it's more likely to start with Zander than anybody else.
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: But the thing about Rory is how much that three
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: K gets you, So that could be what keeps Scotty
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: in check by the end of it all. But it's
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: like you know, from the chalk builds we have, this
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: is the shitty part and by the way, the funniest
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: thing ever last week with the no Scottie market and
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: everyone thinking I think I mentioned in the last one,
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: but like I literally never lobbied for that. It was
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: a joke, and then they gave it to this. I
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: think it's actually defeats the purpose of the game we
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: play and why this conversation is usually so interesting between it.
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: But we almost have to have both of those. There's
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: gonna be y chalk Scottie build again, because it feels
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: like it's that way. But then when you look at projections,
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: I could easily see where the opposite build is like
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: Xander with one other and then it's you can fit
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: English strok Uh whatever else you want to put in there,
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: picking eight k guy Nap got her upper fifth, like
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: you can fit all that. So to me, I think
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: there's like the two builds there that will pull a
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: little bit from each other. But that what's interesting about
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: that is Rory and Fleetwood could get squeezed again in
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: the balance versus the Scotti builds. So I just I
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: don't know how it actually ends up going, but I
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: think it's between those two. Yeah.
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: Actually, now that you mentioned how well Xander projects, like,
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: there's there's a chance that it's Tommy who who's moonwalks,
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: just like he did last week along with Rory. And
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: last week Tommy was the fourth most expensive if I
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: recall correctly, not the third most expensive. Maybe I'm wrong
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: about that, maybe it was the same, But yeah, that
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: could be really interesting because we like at FTN, we
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: have Tommy projected as the second best play in this
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: field and by a somewhat considerable margin, just based on
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: how well he played at the end of last season
• 45:06
  Speaker 3: now starts super well again this year. So if that's
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: the case, if he's the one who's who's moonwalking, help
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: me in I'd be on Tommy.
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: So well, we'll talk about that, I'm sure, but yeah,
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: let's let's uh.
• 45:19
  Speaker 3: You know, well, I think I think that's kind of
• 45:20
  Speaker 3: like a large theme for me at the top is
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: there's there's just not a whole lot of separation between
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: most of the nine K range and plus Tommy plus Rory.
• 45:30
  Speaker 3: Where you you tell me that any of these guys
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: are gonna end up low owned, and I'll be interested
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: just because I don't think the odds of success for
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: any of them are really drastically different from any other.
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: So if one guy is is being owned in such
• 45:43
  Speaker 3: a way that his odds of success as if they
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: were lower than everyone else's, then yeah, I'm in on
• 45:49
  Speaker 3: that guy.
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, I'm going to get to it later when
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: I get to my lane. But just noting like, I
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: definitely think this is the balance build I see as
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: well with projections, And that's why I said earlier, like
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: someone asked about Henley, Henley squeeze for sure here I
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: think Henley could be the lowest owned guy in the
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: entire range actually, to be honest, just because the way
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: the other stuff fits. Also, like I said, and if
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: you like Seawoo and have those those numbers and notes,
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: that's something I really look for. I think that's strong.
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: I think Seawoo's fine based off of that. I've heard
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: everything man like he oh six weeks in a row,
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: terrible course history in the past, all these different factors.
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: The guy's playing phenomenal golf right now, had a bad week,
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: it happens, but he could easily bounce back here and
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: this could set up really well for him. Also, So
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: if I'm in the nine K range, I'm gonna be
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: thinking about some of those guys versus some of the
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: chalkier options. But I will say, when you get to
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: the balance stuff or however you're setting up your builds,
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: Xander Decky can't like even like Cam Young and some
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: of those guys like they're getting projecting boosts that could
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: lead to ownership boosts. And that makes for the nine
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: K range being popular in a bunch of different ways,
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: because you can still a Rory in a nine K
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: or like Tommy in a nine k as well. So
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: there's nine K guys gonna be used in a lot
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: of places. So I think it's at least somewhat interesting.
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: When we get to for my lane later on, I'll
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: talk through it then. But as far as leveraging the
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: chalk bill, what are some of the first things that
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: come to mind, or like, who are some of the
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: other guys I guess that you see fitting into these
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: chalk bills. I mentioned Ryan Girard, think he's a super
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: likely candidate down there. But you know some of the
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: other guys, the familiar names I talked about English, Straka,
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: minmu Lee, Kirk, Kidiama, like some of those projection darlings
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: are the guys that are fitting in and making the
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: Scotti lineups work. And then in the six case, I
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: think you've got final Stevens Berger, Bridgeman, some of those,
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: maybe McGreevy again, like some of those names can pop
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: up there.
• 47:32
  Speaker 3: But what do you think you already said it. But
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: like I think when we have this conversation about chalk bill,
• 47:37
  Speaker 3: like we have to have two different chalk builds, one
• 47:39
  Speaker 3: with Scotty, one without and with Scotty is definitely the
• 47:42
  Speaker 3: first place to start. You're left with seventy one forty
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: for the last five spots if you click Scotty first.
• 47:47
  Speaker 3: So immediately when someone clicks Scotty, they're going to go
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: look in the range around seventy one seventy two hundred.
• 47:53
  Speaker 3: And you mentioned Ryan Gerard. I think he's going to
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: be very popular. I think Pierson Cootie is going to
• 47:58
  Speaker 3: be really popular. So that's probably the most popular start
• 48:03
  Speaker 3: for Scotty is Scotty Coody Gerard, and then that means
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: they're going to have to go into the six K
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: range at least once. And so I think the Gala
• 48:11
  Speaker 3: Bridgeman Hasatine, fen Now and Stevens all could get you know,
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: somewhat decently owned down there, especially if again, like you know,
• 48:21
  Speaker 3: so right now we have we have all five of
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: those guys with the Gala Bridgeman Hasatsina few and Stevens
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: between like six and ten percent. If Scotty is twenty
• 48:32
  Speaker 3: eight percent instead of eighteen percent, now those guys could
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: be eleven to sixteen percent instead of six to ten.
• 48:38
  Speaker 3: So just yet another reminder of like ownership is so
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: so so connected. Ownership is always connected, but it's never
• 48:46
  Speaker 3: been more connected than it is right now because we
• 48:49
  Speaker 3: have such extreme Scotti pricing. You know, it's like if
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: in NFL DFS, if they priced McCaffrey at twelve thousand
• 48:57
  Speaker 3: dollars and thirty percent of the field still wanted to
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: McCaffrey every week, It's like, okay, well, then what three
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: K wide receiver and what minimum price tight end is
• 49:05
  Speaker 3: everyone going to because they're going to get on they
• 49:07
  Speaker 3: have to be owned for McCaffrey to get that much ownership.
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: So it's, like you mentioned it, it's this really really
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: cool variable that we have to deal with each week
• 49:14
  Speaker 3: now and it does affect everything.
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: But well that's a good point though, too, because like
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: that's the hard part. Like again, this show is to learn,
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: including ourselves, Like we literally go through this stuff. It's
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: real conversation of us thinking through it and then talking
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: about reviewing the information we have in front of us
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: and how we're going to apply it. I think the
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: most interesting thing is, like Scotty comes in at twenty
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: percent and then everyone's like summer victory lapping. Oh, I
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: thought he was going to be sixteen. I knew he'd
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: be more than others are saying, well, everyone, these people
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: were showing twenty seven and he ended up dropping to twenty.
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: We're saying to be prepared for that, and then we're
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: working on those numbers on our own teams behind the
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: scenes to try and get to that because the closer
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: you can get to figuring it out, the more you
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: know about the rest of the build to your point.
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: And so like with Scotty, it's not rocket science to
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: know that you're gonna have to fit in those seven
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: K guys in one of the six k's, et cetera.
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: But it's figuring out what that looks like and then
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: where do where do those variables move if the number moves,
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: Because in that example, if Scotty does finish out up
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: to say twenty percent, it's it's not just about like
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: seventeen versus twenty five that he could have been and
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: somewhere in between he finished in between that range. It's
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: a wider range these days because of how the field's
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: interpreting and what we're talking about. But if Xander comes
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: in at twenty, it's like, well, that's exactly what we
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: talked about. It's like it was kind of like one
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: or the other, and now you start to know and
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: you know what either of those builds look like. It
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: doesn't mean you have to sway completely off of either build.
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: It just means you have to think about it and
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: what you're doing within that build. So one of the
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: things we talk about when how to leverage the chalk build, Well,
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: when you're leveraging the Scotty chalk build, and I've talked
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: about this a ton, if you're going to do that
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: in single entry, and it's in a larger field single entry.
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: I'll use like the twelve dollars whatever in the in
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: the three thousand dollars or the what's a good example,
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: like the I don't know, the Thunderdome with thirty people.
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: It's a single entry kind of do whatever you want
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: because others can make mistakes and you can kind of,
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: you know, leap on top of that and say, okay,
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: I got my angle, but in something else. But there's
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: gonna be a bunch of different versions of it. You
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: playing Scotty, Girard and Bridgeman is basically the same start
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: as a majority of the Scotty lineups. And so when
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: there's a thousand lineups in that tournament, and let's say
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: you were like, wow, Scotty came in at seventeen, Well
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: there's still one hundred and seventy lineups, and there's a
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: bunch of those that have Girard and have Bridgeman or
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: one of those guys where you have like a one
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: v one or a two v two in a certain spot.
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: So it's like you're not really doing that much different
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: by doing that. So when I go with Scotty in
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: those builds, one of the things I like to do
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: is try and find good opportunities or options down below
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: that not as many people are on. That's why since
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: talking with you that one week to every other week
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: so far, I've liked the approach of more Scotty in mme,
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: where I can just start flinging this stuff around him
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: whatever I want to get these random options, different types
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: of Scotty builds, different plays and options with him for
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: overall construction differences versus in single entry trying to peg Scotty.
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: You know, Yatzi Cheflin, Like we talked about you got
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: to just pick the other five and get it right.
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: But so many people are already on the most common
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: versions of what that looks like, which makes it really challenging.
• 52:10
  Speaker 3: Yeah, there's something you talked about there which I think
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: is awesome, which is this idea of like you should
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: always be preparing for a range of outcomes in ownership.
• 52:19
  Speaker 3: And I think this is really important to note because
• 52:23
  Speaker 3: and hopefully this doesn't come across as like an excuse
• 52:26
  Speaker 3: to someone who's doing ownership projections for being wrong about
• 52:29
  Speaker 3: ownership sometimes, but like when we talk about Scotty ownership,
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: for example, it's not that we might be wrong. It's
• 52:37
  Speaker 3: that we are acknowledging the fact that we can't possibly
• 52:41
  Speaker 3: know where he's going to come in right. And the
• 52:44
  Speaker 3: way that I'll illustrate this is like anyone watching ask yourself,
• 52:48
  Speaker 3: are you one hundred percent sure yet whether you're using
• 52:50
  Speaker 3: Scotty or not in your main lineup? And if you're mmmying,
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: are you one hundred percent sure exactly what your exposure
• 52:55
  Speaker 3: is going to be for him? It's like we're less
• 52:58
  Speaker 3: than twenty four hours from the start of the golf tournament.
• 53:00
  Speaker 3: If you don't know what you're going to do with Scotty,
• 53:03
  Speaker 3: how could we possibly know what the entire field is
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: going to do with Scotty. So it's it's less about like, well,
• 53:11
  Speaker 3: we could be wrong, and I think it's more about
• 53:13
  Speaker 3: just understanding his range of outcomes exists, just his range
• 53:18
  Speaker 3: of outcomes for ownership exists, just like his range of
• 53:21
  Speaker 3: outcomes for actual golf performance exists. And understanding that when
• 53:27
  Speaker 3: we are low on him, it's going to affect who
• 53:30
  Speaker 3: elsewhere we're too high on or too low on. That's
• 53:33
  Speaker 3: a really key point when you're lying a building, because,
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: as you just mentioned, like when you use Scotty. Okay,
• 53:38
  Speaker 3: you want to find some low on guys. If you
• 53:41
  Speaker 3: use Scotty and you say, okay, well Max Holmes projected
• 53:43
  Speaker 3: at seven point six percent, so he's going to be contrarian. Well,
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: if Scotty's actually thirty percent instead of the eighteen percent
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: that we have, then Homa might be twelve percent instead
• 53:53
  Speaker 3: of seven and a half percent. Now is he contrarian
• 53:55
  Speaker 3: enough for you? Did you need him to be eight
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: percent or less to really feel good about him? So
• 54:00
  Speaker 3: understanding how that is all connected, and the fact that
• 54:03
  Speaker 3: like it's this legitimate range of outcomes and it's not
• 54:06
  Speaker 3: just about whether all those uh you know, analysts, whether
• 54:12
  Speaker 3: they were wrong or right about him. Understanding that there's
• 54:14
  Speaker 3: actually this very real range of outcomes that affects everything.
• 54:17
  Speaker 3: I think is as just a really key part of
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: lineup building. And it's it's awesome that you kind of
• 54:21
  Speaker 3: pointed to it right there.
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I think it's also important to remember, like we
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: we as we stayed on the top of every show,
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: it's not who you play, it's how you play them.
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: It's not who you you know. It's not just who
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: you play, it's who you don't play. It's all the
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: things that we've mentioned along the way. But that's where
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: people get caught up. It's Scotty Scheffler. Like anyone sitting
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: there that has a prediction, it's Scotty Scheffer. You don't
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: have to do any conversation beyond that. It's all noticed
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: with our conversation. It's all If Scotty Scheffler, then this.
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: If not Scotty Scheffler, then this. What does that look like?
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: How can you use that to your advantage? Different styles
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: of tournaments, all these different factors. In single entry, you'll
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: have the golfer that is the favorite to win the tournament.
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: It's the best golfer in the field. It doesn't matter
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: what the past, the present, any of that. It's just
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: that's what you'll have the facts. But you do still
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: have to fill out five other spots, and you really
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: still got to get them there right, and then you
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: got to get them there with some sort of separation
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: because it can't be the only guy with the same
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: lineup as everybody else, So you're not gonna want to
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: be backed into that corner. So there's just a lot
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: of different ways and variables to look at it. I think,
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: you know, we'll get there later when I get to
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: my lane. But I think there's some other interesting points
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: to this. Is there anything else you want to talk
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: about with the chalk build builds in this case plural
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: or how to leverage them and that sort of stuff,
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: because I got some stuff later, but I think it's
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: a better conversation when we get there.
• 55:30
  Speaker 3: So the next thing to talk about then is what
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: does the non chalk Scottie bill look like? And to me,
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: it's not about figuring out which of the you know,
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: nine K guys or use. It's the idea that, okay, well,
• 55:41
  Speaker 3: a lot of people are gonna use Fitzpatrick at eighty four,
• 55:43
  Speaker 3: a lot of people are gonna use god her up
• 55:44
  Speaker 3: at eighty eight, and then it's going to be a
• 55:48
  Speaker 3: pretty healthy mix of different nine K guys. And to me,
• 55:52
  Speaker 3: this is why I expect Scotty to still be around
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: twenty percent, maybe even a little bit less in single entries,
• 55:59
  Speaker 3: maybe capped it like twenty five percent for singles, because
• 56:02
  Speaker 3: there are just so many more options for people to
• 56:04
  Speaker 3: be really enthusiastic about when you go to the non
• 56:07
  Speaker 3: Scotti built, because in the Scotti build like again, you're
• 56:11
  Speaker 3: immediately pointed to the like seventy one hundred dollars range.
• 56:14
  Speaker 3: So people might feel really good about Cootie, they might
• 56:16
  Speaker 3: feel really good about Gerard, but it's also clear those
• 56:18
  Speaker 3: guys are going to be popular. So the highest probability
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: plays are clearly the most owned plays down here. It's
• 56:25
  Speaker 3: hard to feel like really excited about, you know, a
• 56:28
  Speaker 3: low owned Wyndham Clark or JT. Poston or Max Grazerman.
• 56:32
  Speaker 3: There are just fewer names down here that people are
• 56:34
  Speaker 3: going to have like genuine conviction on that are also
• 56:37
  Speaker 3: low owned. So I think people are going to be
• 56:40
  Speaker 3: drawn once again more towards these balance builds where you
• 56:43
  Speaker 3: just have so many options of players that you can
• 56:46
  Speaker 3: feel really good about, really excited about, and they're actually
• 56:51
  Speaker 3: low owned, and so you know they there are all
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: guys that people can really feel good about having in
• 56:56
  Speaker 3: their lineups and feel like the lineup as a whole
• 56:58
  Speaker 3: is good and not just the play itself. So just
• 57:03
  Speaker 3: looking at the two builds next to each other, again,
• 57:06
  Speaker 3: I don't expect Scottie to be the Chuck build.
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, after talking through it a little bit more, I
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: would say one of the things that stands out is
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: for sure what you just said is like again, I
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: still think it's I'm personally gonna lean that it's the
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: Xander side, but that's why I brought it back into play,
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: because I think it's like Xander somebody else in the
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: nine K two eight K guys and then you can
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: land on whatever you want after that. If it's Bridgeman
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: and up, if it's seven k is ever, I actually
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: think that's gonna be more of the chalk build and
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: that's great for what I'm thinking on this slate because
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: that you know it's gonna have one to two nine
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: K guys are gonna be in the chalk build most
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: likely too, to be honest, just from breaking that down quickly,
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: but you could see some three eighths or whatever it
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: is like that, but I think the most common is
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: gonna be something like that, and so yeah, I'm good
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: to keep it rolling. I would say to this, like,
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you have any comment on this,
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: but like I don't know, like a second moment stat
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: in your projections, like Scotty it twenty eight percent plus.
• 58:00
  Speaker 3: So that's that's plus minus six percent. Yes, I have
• 58:02
  Speaker 3: thought about doing this sort of thing. It's it's really
• 58:06
  Speaker 3: hard because for the majority of players, the range is
• 58:10
  Speaker 3: just going to be plus minus the same amount. And
• 58:16
  Speaker 3: so I find that it's actually a little bit more
• 58:18
  Speaker 3: effective to just talk through the guys who have a
• 58:20
  Speaker 3: wider range of outcomes than most. And the other thing is, like,
• 58:26
  Speaker 3: if we're talking about the key being that you need
• 58:28
  Speaker 3: to understand how the plus minus for Scotti is connected
• 58:31
  Speaker 3: to the plus minus for Ryan Girard. I don't just
• 58:35
  Speaker 3: want plus minus on every single guy because that kind
• 58:37
  Speaker 3: of it creates this picture that they all could be
• 58:41
  Speaker 3: lower or higher and there's no real connection between them.
• 58:44
  Speaker 3: So I want to draw the connections and make it
• 58:46
  Speaker 3: easier for people to understand the connections. And I think
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: it's easier to just then put in my article for
• 58:51
  Speaker 3: FTN or or in my you know slight thoughts for
• 58:54
  Speaker 3: my discord of Okay, if Scotty's wrong, what is that effect?
• 58:58
  Speaker 3: If he's wrong in this direction, this guy is gonna
• 59:00
  Speaker 3: be higher, this guy's gonna be higher, these guys are
• 59:02
  Speaker 3: going to be lower. If he's lower than we expect,
• 59:04
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be the opposite. And so actually drawing those
• 59:06
  Speaker 3: connections out, it'd be interesting to try to like actually
• 59:09
  Speaker 3: map that out with numbers on the on the ownership page.
• 59:13
  Speaker 3: But if that's probably a project for another day. But
• 59:16
  Speaker 3: but that's why I don't do the plus minus because
• 59:18
  Speaker 3: I think it's just that'd be like a lot of
• 59:21
  Speaker 3: information overload, where the key information is not just the
• 59:25
  Speaker 3: plus minus for each player, it's how the connections work
• 59:29
  Speaker 3: between everybody.
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna show this quick because I you know,
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: for two seconds to tell people better. Like I'm not
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: getting into the fold obviously if you want, I give
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: away my full optimizer process of what I actually do.
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: But in somewhere in this vicinity of what Aaron's talking about,
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: like it talks about my rules settings, all that stuff.
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: But at the end of the day, mostly in PGA,
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: I'm not I'm not doing that. What I'm doing is
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: the if this then that if I think Scotty's gonna
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: be less and I adjust that, well, it's not just
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: that Scott he's less. That's where I think the people
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: miss a step, especially when you're using contest sims, which
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: I know you sometimes are looking at and you guys
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: have over we've got them via sabersim. But I'm using
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: the stone. I'm getting my player pool from there, and
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: then I'm looking at the ownership. Our ownership is great,
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: but it's also a great place to start because you're
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: not gonna do this yourself. Much like your own ownership,
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: you've got it to where you want it. Now, it's
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: different because you do your own. Our team does ours.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: And then I can finaggle it a little bit here
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: and there if I want to, but just noting it,
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: I would never just adjust Scott. First of all, it's
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: going to add up to six hundred. So it's like
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: when I take five, if I take five from Scotty,
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: that five has to go somewhere. But here's a problem
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: most people go through and they just go, Okay, five
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: off Scotty, give that to Rory. Well, what do you
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: mean like it changes everything? Like if you Scotty's three
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: thousand dollars more, doesn't just change that. So I think
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: for me, the main notice is like I not only
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: get my player pool first and put it into Saber
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: sim then I'm adjusting these things. Then I'm building the
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: field lineups off the most accurate owner what I believe
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: to be the most accurate ownership, and then I'm building
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: my lineups against that. Again, that's where the differences lie,
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: and depending on the package you have or what you
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: use for your own stuff. But that's the most beneficial
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: thing to your contest sims is when you have very
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: accurate ownership, the player projections are all median projections. It's
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: like a Homa can say fifty right now if he
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: has a home a week at Riviera. It's not likely
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: the way he's been playing, but it's possible. It's Homa
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: and any given time, look more cow showing up in
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: won last week. If he has that kind of week,
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be a hundred plus points. If he has
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: a bad week and missus the cut, it could be
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: thirty points. So it's like it's I'm looking way more
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: at what the field's doing and then adjusting for that
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: before going in and feeling good about it. So I'm
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: fine with adjustments, but I would look at it more
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: from that perspective in my own perspective. So right on
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: what else you mentioned.
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 3: You mentioned contestims there and like how important it is
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 3: for accuracy in terms of ownership. Like I'll take it
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 3: a step further and I'll say contessms are completely useless
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 3: if you can't predict ownership accurately, because in order to
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 3: have like any you know, real use from contestim you
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 3: need to be simulating versus lineups that are similar to
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 3: what your competition is actually gonna use. And you have
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: zero chants of building accurate field lineups if you can't
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 3: even predict ownership correctly, Like ownership is just step one
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 3: of building field lineups. Well it's not the full piece.
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 3: But if you can't even do step one, well you
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 3: certainly can't then do step two well to build field lineup.
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 3: So so yeah, really good point there on contest sums.
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Also why this stuff doesn't matter. I love Aaron's
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: participation here in engagement and stuff like means they're so
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: limited already the sample sizes or whatever. There's been different
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: courses of all different field size, different other players get
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: better now than they were back then, and so on
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: and so forth. It's like, yeah, it's a good thing
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: to lean on when it's all said and done, But
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: that's no different than when somebody says I'm buying a
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: Marvin Mims jersey because he scored a touchdown today. I mean,
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: we have you got some great calls on Marvin Mims
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: this season, but is noting that It's like maybe it's
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: the defender that slipped and made it. So Marvin Mims
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: got to the house, you should be buying their jersey
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: and thanking them. They're the ones that caused it. Marvin
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: Mims was dead if that guy doesn't fall. So it's
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: like little things like that that I just don't All
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: I care about is all the other stuff we talked
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: about when people dig into the picks plays and oh,
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: what's the recency bias of this guy? All the shit
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: at all. It's all something, but it's all part of
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: the puzzle. And at the end of the day, to
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: Alex's point that he just made, if you have good projections,
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: specifically ownership projections, even if you don't have contest sims,
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: they're really, like you said, almost useless without that for
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: those But for the other side of it is like
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: trying to build good lineups. If you don't have any
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: clue what the field's doing and how the pieces go together,
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: you're gonna be way behind what other people are doing.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: It's not a sales pitch. It's a fact. Go look
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: the leaderboards, the same people at the top of them.
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: It's not even than the top poker players that spend
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: hours and hours in solvers and prepare themselves for these situations.
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: Some are good at playing live and still holding up
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: the live side of it, because then you still have
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: to hold a poker face or bluffing or what you
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: do in your tels and all that stuff. People are
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: practicing that now too. It's like you know that at
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: the end of the day, if you're working on your
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: game and you're trying to get better, there's a lot
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: more to it that goes with it. So I don't
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: have too much else to add on that. Do you
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: have anything else you want to talk about with anything? Outside?
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: One and done the betting breakdown, and then we'll get
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: to our lane.
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 3: Very fun betting breakdown this week. I will say that
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 3: I have many more outrights this week than I might
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 3: have as many outrights this week as I've had, like
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 3: combined in the last four weeks or something like that.
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 3: Very much recommend going back and watching the show that
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 3: Pat and I did yesterday. We talked about a specific
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 3: each way type that's now available on bet three six five.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 3: Actually I shouldn't say now available. There's a chance that
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 3: it's been available and I just never scrolled far and
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 3: up right on the each way market to find it.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 3: But Pat asked me about a specific each way that's
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 3: one fifth of the odds for three spots. And so
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 3: the way in each way bet works is, let's say
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 3: you're betting fifty dollars on a player. Fifty dollars is
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 3: going to go to the outright, just as you usually
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 3: do it. Then an additional fifty dollars will be added,
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 3: this time on the placement bet, So the fraction is okay,
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 3: if he was fifty to one, I'm now getting one
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 3: fifth of that fifty to one, and then I'm getting
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 3: three spots, so that'd be ten to one for a
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 3: top three as the second half of the bet that's
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 3: added on to the original bet. And the reason why
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 3: this one is so intriguing is because it actually takes
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 3: the outright number and boosts it up. So like Scotty is,
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 3: let's say he's three to one in this each way market,
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 3: he might be four and a half to one or
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 3: something like that, and so you get a better number
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 3: on the actual outright itself. And I did all the
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 3: math Pat and I talked about it turns out it's
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 3: really good, and so I have a bunch of those bets.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 3: This week, and I think my favorite one is probably
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 3: Sepstraca at seventy. The guy is just continues to show
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 3: us that when he plays his A game, he can
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 3: beat this type of field, not with ease, but like
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 3: he's going to be in contention and just has to
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 3: play his A game. He doesn't need to do something
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 3: special for himself, something super rare for himself, like an
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 3: out of body experience type thing to beat one of
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 3: these fields. And he's also one of those guys who
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 3: the more approach play matters this week, the better chance
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 3: he has to win. So the fact that there that
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 3: they should be softer greens this year than what we've
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 3: seen in the past, I think really benefits him and
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 3: from in terms of like mid iron and long iron player,
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 3: there are very very few in the world who are
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 3: better than he is. So I really like him this week.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 3: And that number seventy to one is just crazy, crazy high.
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 3: And to show that point just a little more, let
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 3: me bring up our prop shop over in FTNL. Let's
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 3: see what the best available in market is just for
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 3: the traditional outright fifty to one. Fifty to one is
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: the best available in the traditional market. I don't know
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 3: if the if the number has moved in that specific
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 3: each way market over on bet three six five. But
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 3: for anyone who's trying to find this number, you go
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 3: to bed three six y five, you go to the tournament,
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 3: you have to actually switch from main markets to each
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 3: way markets and then scroll to find that one fifth
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 3: for one through three spots, and that's where you'll find
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 3: the better number. So sepstrak is seventy to one. That's
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 3: my outright of the week.
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, very interesting converce station two. Just because you know,
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: for those like me being Canadian and those that always
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: had access to bed three six five, we've always been
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: looking at these each way markets markets. I remember back
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 2: in the day with my buddy Kenny Kim on the
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: Fantasy Golf Degenerate's podcast, he'd be like, yeah, you of
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: course get these each ways, and now he's got them,
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: so I see him betting them all the time. But
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: they were always there. They changed it up on us,
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: so it used to be only one quarter top five
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: and that was still fine, I'm said, but that that's
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: all you could get, And then all of a sudden
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: they started bringing in all these columns of different markets
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: you could bet on, so you guys digging into that,
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: it's just like us digging into dfs here, very exciting
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: and just unique, sort of a unique blend of sports
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: betting mixed with DFS mixed with everything, kind of putting
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: it all together across these shows for yourself. But yeah,
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: if you know Straka one's nice and he's seventy eight
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: hundred on DraftKings, So you know, if you don't want
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: to play them there and you want to just bet
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: them or vice versa, play them both, you can do that.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: But I like to call it, and I like the
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: number seventy to one, And.
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 3: The other thing is like, I think this is a
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 3: really unique thing to PGA, it seems, which is really
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 3: cool that there's more of an overlap between guys who
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 3: play PGA dfs and guys who bet on PGA than
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 3: there is in basically any other sport like NBA for example.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 3: I don't even play NBA dfs anymore, but I do
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 3: a lot of betting in football. I do both, but
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 3: I find fewer other people who do both, you know,
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 3: Like even in my discord, there were there are a
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 3: lot of a lot of guys who just were there
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 3: for the NFL d discussion, and then there were also
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 3: guys there for the NFL props and pick them discussion.
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 3: In PGA, it seems like everyone is in on both,
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 3: and that's, to me, is one of the really cool
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 3: things about this PGA industry.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a way to get a ton of action
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: on something that you feel strongly about if you're putting
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: in the time and all that sort uff. Again, bet responsibly, now,
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: don't just say it. There's no waiver disclaimer, just a
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: note like I really do. I don't want people putting
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: out putting up more money than they can afford to lose.
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: That's you know, that's the problem that people run into
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: in these discords and things like that, where they're freaking
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: out and overtilting and all that. Chances are, don't mean
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: to be rude, but you probably have too much money
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 2: on the line. I've got thousands on the line. It's
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: not a brag. I'm just saying, but it's like I
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: can afford to lose that. It's what part of my
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: bankroll is. It's how I've always built things. I literally do.
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: I'm playing with my family. I'm about like today, I'm
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: gonna before I even get the rest of my work done,
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna go watch the rest of the Canada game
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: for the Olympics. When golf is on tomorrow, and throughout
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 2: the weekend, there'll be more Olympics on. I'll be watching that.
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: Like it's not make or break. I'm trying to make
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: money and planning to it and hoping I do. Like
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: NFL season was awesome, golf season has not started as awesome,
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: but it could be good. Who knows. There's a ton
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: of time left. If you're playing all season, you have
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: to factor in and you can't just sit back and say, oh, well,
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: there's thirty events, I'm playing thirty weeks. No, there's thirty events,
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: but that could be four slates a week or more
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: to you because if you're just playing round two, Round three,
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: Round four, and you're skipping round one, I get it,
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: but you're still playing classic for a bunch and those
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: other three slates. That's four slates per week. Now, let's
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: say it's forty events on the year with swing season
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: and everything. Now you're playing one hundred and sixty slates.
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: You're gonna lose a ton of those slates. So you
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: just gotta be prepared for that. You can't be putting
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 2: up money you can't afford to lose. So you know,
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: sometimes people release the beast, and sometimes the beast gets released,
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: but that's what happens. You gotta be careful tilting in
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: that discord and coming after people on that stuff because
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: it's like it's your money. You clicked send on the
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: money and submit it. We don't want you spending more
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: than you could afford to lose. So all right, one
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: and done, let's talk about that. I think one of
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: the most interesting things I did want to bring this up.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: I know you don't want to spend too long here today,
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: but the difference in the Mayo Cup, which is important
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: because I'm in all these, but the Mayo Cup and
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: Rick's Splash Sports one are quite different because of the segments. Right,
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: this first segment in the Rick Run Good one is
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: nine tournaments, but I believe there's only three or four left,
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: and like this is a big one, obviously being another signature.
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: Last week was big, but not as many people are
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: on calling. I just am curious before we get to
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 2: like who you like for this week as a general
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 2: one and done or with that involved, with or without
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: that involved, what do you think about involving the segment
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: in the conversation. Meaning, let's say you've hit duds, are
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: you're at three hundred thousand bucks and we're already in
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: the segment one. You know, then do you want to
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 2: go use a Scotti or a Rory or something like that.
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think I know the answer. I'm just saying,
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: like for others asking that, it's like, they gotta be
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 2: cognizant of that, because it's important to note that there's
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: other segments that you could just stack the four best
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: players you have for and still get out of this
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: thing with some money. But well, what's your thoughts on that?
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: And then we'll talk one and done in general?
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I love this question. I don't know if I'm
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 3: in anyone and Done's that that really segment? It like that,
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 3: but it's it's an it's a really good question, and
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 3: absolutely I think you need to take it into account.
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 3: And so if you're in good shape and you have
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 3: a chance to, you know, wrap up a nice payout
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 3: from segment one, go take advantage of that. Because it's
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 3: a long season. You have no idea how you're gonna
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 3: do the rest of the way. If you're in a
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 3: position where you could end up with a really nice
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 3: payout from segment one. Go hammer that as hard as
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 3: you can, you know, right, and so maybe that's using
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 3: Scotty this week if it goes through the players, maybe
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 3: you save Scotty for the players or something like that.
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 3: But if you're if you thinking it up this week
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 3: or this year so far, and you're way behind in
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 3: this segment, no, you should absolutely not use use those
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 3: guys unless you think that doing so is going to
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 3: be contrarian enough this week where like it could help
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 3: you actually get back into the mix for the season
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 3: long race. So in that case it'd be fine, But
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 3: from a segment perspective, it would certainly not be worth
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 3: doing because you know there are guys ahead of you
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 3: who are going to use him as well. So you
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 3: have absolutely no chance to go win the segment or
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 3: finish well in the segment if you go and use
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 3: those studs right now. So, really good question, don't I
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 3: don't think I have any strong feelings yet this week
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 3: for one and done in terms of who I want
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 3: to use.
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 2: Do you all have a thought here to say? I
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: like Aaron Cott this one, so shout out to him.
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: Be cognizant the week before. Yeah, the tournament's upcoming, so
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: that's gonna be part of the segment as well. But
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 2: I think that at the end of the day, you
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: said a really good point there that was added on.
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: And also like if you have capitalized on a segment,
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 2: meaning you got more how right, and you got something
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: else going in your favor, you got to get after
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: it this week. Not only is it great anyway to
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 2: Aaron's previous point, I'm like, this this week is huge
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 2: prize pool and you know, basically it's like the players,
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: but that's for any one and done. We're talking mao
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 2: coup like you said, and it's like every event counts. Yeah,
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 2: get who you think's gonna win the money. But most
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: certainly if you're in a segment contest like Rick run
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: Goods Big one on Splash, you should be focused on
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 2: where you stand right now. And I wouldn't burn anybody
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: if you're way behind. Save it for bigger segments, and
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: you're still gonna need somebody that does well. You want
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: to collect money, don't get me wrong, but I'm just
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: saying you don't need to pick the top tier that
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 2: you might be able to use to your favor later
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: vice versa. If you're in a good spot, you got
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: Collin right, you got other stuff right. I would try
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: and get as much as you possibly can. Roll it
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: out that way. Where do you I guess my question
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: is where are you thinking early that people are landing.
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: I definitely think people are landing on Cantley. I brought
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 2: that up earlier just because of history and all these
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: other factors, and he definitely showed some signs. But by
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: the way, I'll just note this, because you brought the
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 2: Rose thing earlier. Can't lay to me is like a
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: little bit reminiscent of the Rose thing. Like Rose, it
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 2: was like age and different factors playing good. Now, when
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 2: are we gonna save him for it makes sense? Et cetera,
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: et cetera. Can't. Hey, he just had himself a good week.
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: He had a really good round four. He crushes it here,
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 2: He's been fine before. Let's jump on him now. I'm
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 2: not saying it's a bad thing, just noting why it's
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: a popular thing. It does sort of bring that into play.
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 2: I think, almost like how the Rose situation did last week.
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and his iron play has really been surging so
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 3: far this year, so I'm with you. I think he's
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 3: gonna be one of the most popular one and done
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 3: picks that to me like kind of excludes him because
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 3: he's not popping at all in our models, particularly in
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 3: our simulations, like his his projection is solid, but he's
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 3: one of the lower volatility players now among the best
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 3: players in the world, So the win odds the top
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 3: five bots just don't compare to some of his peers
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 3: up there, at least in our simulations, So I won't
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 3: be going there. But like I said, I don't have
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 3: anyone that I feel like really good about. I think
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 3: maybe the guy who's the most interesting to me is
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 3: Russell Henley because he is so like polar opposite of
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 3: the type of player that you think of when you
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 3: think of a riv specialist. But he's just a good
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 3: enough player to have real win equity, and we've seen
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 3: him win on courses or at least contend on courses
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 3: where like his game just doesn't fit what most guys
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 3: have to do well to play well there, because he
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 3: can play his own game and just play it that
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 3: well that he actually contends and even wins like he
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 3: did at bay Hill. So you mentioned the fact that
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 3: he could slip through the cracks and be one of
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 3: the lowest owned guys in DFS. I think he could
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 3: also do the same and be one of the really
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 3: low owned like stars from a one and dumb perspective too.
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, another thing I wanted to add too, though, and
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: that's a great call. I like that one. Another guy,
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 2: just an example, would be like Sam Burns. He showed
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: up last week, Mike Cantley. Did you know he's been
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: you know, two years ago in there here he was
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: tenth Like, he's obviously a guy that I guess. My
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: thoughts on guys like Henley and Burns. I know we
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: had the conversation earlier in the season, so I'm interested
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: or your rebuttal to this. But like everyone that got
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: the gotterr Up wins now plural right, It's they weren't
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: for the biggest money, but they were wins. That's for
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 2: the biggest money you could possibly get that week. The
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 2: way to get after those people now is to get
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: got her Up winning on a week like this for
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: all the money. But outside of that, let's say a
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: guy like got her Up, who we just talked about,
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: or Nap, It's like they're gonna probably get tournaments down
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: the stretch where they are the favorite or like the
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: two to one or three. You know, they're like they're
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: sort of the top two or the top three favorite
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: in the tournament. You're not always I know sometimes you will,
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: but like with Henley and Burns and that sort of stuff,
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: it's not always guaranteed because sometimes they don't always play
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: in those crossovers where like those other guys will. So
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: I'd be more likely to go with to your point, Henley,
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 2: you could go with the Burns, another guy you could
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: go with through people usually don't go back to the well,
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: but is more Kawa right, just just go right back
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 2: to the well? MORCW he won last week, there's no
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 2: way he can win again this week, So I don't
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 2: know what's your thoughts on that. But he also only
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: plays big Boy events too, so when else.
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 3: I I was bringing up Moricawa next. So I think
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 3: we should probably go ahead and toss Morikawa in for
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 3: our joint entry because I think it's a really sharp play,
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 3: and I also think he's potentially good on DraftKings like
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 3: that was another kind of thing I actually meant to
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 3: bring up earlier, and we should have touched on is
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 3: do you foresee the Morikawa like post win ownership discount
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 3: coming for him, especially considering the fact that his price
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 3: went up by what was it like sixteen hundred dollars
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 3: first last week? So do you think he's going to
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 3: be really lowaned or are people now just totally backing
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 3: in on him.
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 2: I think I think you're out on him. I think
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 2: it's good he won. Good for him. Now his price
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: went through the roof. It's like he's definitely not gonna
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: win again. And then the problem is just where he
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: is Xander DECKI can't just use Xander and can't lay
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: wrapped around him. I don't care about the rest, like
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: Deki could be in there too, but just use Xander
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: and can't lay alone. He's in between them, So how
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 2: can people get to it? Then you've got the Rory ownership,
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 2: the Scotty ownership that won't just dip right to him.
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: It's not gonna be You're not gonna see a bunch
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: of Marikala lineups, you know what I mean something like that.
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I just don't see how he gets out
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 2: of control. Will he get ten percent? Maybe? Yeah? But
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: does he Where do we go? Is it eight to
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 2: twelve or something?
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 3: Is it?
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: Is it nine to fourteen? Like, I don't know what
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: range you want to give him, but I don't see
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 2: a world where he gets like pumped up or anything.
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 3: It also means like you could go Henley Morikawa for
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 3: basically the same price as Shoffley Can't lay. I think
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 3: they probably project slightly better for us now ever's so
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 3: slightly worse, but you're getting a massive ownership discount compared
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 3: to that that chalk you're pairing, So that's a that's
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 3: a really cool angle at the top. I think Maricaw
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 3: is a really sharp play, particularly for dfs, but I
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 3: think he also works here for one and done.
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that call man, all right, what I'll
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 2: do my line first because I feel pretty strongly about it.
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: So it's good. No nine K in my in my
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 2: main single entry, and the main thing is like everything
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 2: we've been talking about, Like I said, it actually feels
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: even better knowing that is if you know it'll be
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 2: one of Scottie, Rory or Tommy that I'm using. Obviously,
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 2: in this case, I'm not just gonna go all eight
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 2: K guys or something. I'm talking about using a guy
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 2: above them. But when you've got Xander Decki Kawa can't
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 2: lay young. All these guys that we talked about, I
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: could see a bunch of them being fifteen to twenty percent,
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 2: and some of them even higher when you get to
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: the single entry stuff, like we kind of figured out
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 2: what the chalk build stuff there. So I'm happy just
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: to skip that range and you know, go down. Whether
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: I do Fleetwood and multiple eights and land in just
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 2: a completely different zone, or if I do Scottie with
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: the build that I like and I find something down
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: there where I can get upper six or upper sevens,
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 2: mid sixes or something like that. There's a ton of
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: different ways you can go here that I feel comfortable
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 2: with this week, so I'll alleviate myself of the FOMO.
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: There's definitely always gonna be a fear of missing out
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 2: when you're leaving out all those nine k guys, But
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 2: in my main two hundred dollars single entry, I'm not
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 2: going to play any of them. I've got multiple builds
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: I've looked at this morning that don't require any of
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 2: those guys for.
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 3: My leverage lane. I'm going to test my luck with
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 3: this with the thought that we kind of started with
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 3: on the Rose team last week. We're gonna see how
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 3: much of an impact we actually have here because I'm
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 3: going right back to two by low guys, JJ Spawn
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 3: Corey Connors. These are two guys who if you started
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 3: this season back in January and let's say DraftKings like
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 3: released all of the pricing for the next two months
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 3: every single week, you'd look at the pricing this week
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 3: and you'd say, Wow, why would they put Connors and
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 3: Spawn at seven seventy five hundred dollars. They're going to
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 3: be thirty percent of to each by the time we
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 3: get to that part of the schedule. But they haven't
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 3: played well and Spawn heading the injury concern. So here
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 3: he is at this low ownership. But the thing with
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 3: Spawn is he his ball striking was really really good
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 3: last event. His ball speed is actually up compared to
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 3: his baseline, so that to me says, you know what,
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 3: he's healthy. So I'm very much in on him at
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 3: seventy five hundred dollars. And then Connor's it's not the
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 3: same story, but it's a similar story in the fact
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 3: that he hasn't played well. But the thing with Connor's
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 3: is he's only played three times this year he started
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 3: the Sony, his irons were spectacular. Now he's had two
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 3: straight events, six total rounds where the irons haven't been good.
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 3: No part of his game has been good. The putting
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 3: has predictably been bad, but we know that sometimes he
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 3: isn't going to put horribly and usually when he does that,
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 3: the ball striking is good enough that he gets in contention.
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 3: And I just think that the last six rounds pale
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 3: in comparison to the long, extensive history that we have
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 3: from Connors as being one of the better iron players
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 3: in the world, one of the better drivers of the
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 3: golf ball, at least from an accuracy perspective. So I'm
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 3: in on Corey Connors this week in what I think
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 3: is as much of a bi low opportunity as we
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 3: get on players of his caliber at price tags this cheap.
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 3: So that's probably that's my levige lane is the combo
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 3: of spawning Corey Connors and more just like the idea
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 3: of buying low on players that we have extensive histories
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 3: that we know these guys are significantly better players than
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 3: their current price tag and their current play And in
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 3: addition to the price discount, we're also getting in ownership.
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: We're gonna coin it the blickle trickle. We'll see if
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 2: the trickle effect you hops in where people follow you
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 2: and you know, each little trickle of ownership gets added
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 2: on and eventually man spawn and connors can't get ownership
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: here unless they do and so that's the case that
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 2: would have to be from you. So I love it.
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 2: I like the bold call. It's you know, you're hitting
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 2: on two value plays that people can use in many
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: different ways. You could play them again, don't. You don't
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 2: have to pick. You could play them with Girard. You
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 2: could play them instead of Girard. They're all right there,
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 2: but he's putting them together and building something out for you.
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 2: So I like that. I like the breakdown everything you
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 2: did there, anything else to.
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 3: Add Yeah, I love the blickle trickle because hopefully it
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 3: is just a trickle. As long as it's just a
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 3: trickle of ownership that's coming in, I don't care at all.
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 3: And that just don't give me the you know, the
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 3: the big waterfall of additional ownership on those guys, because
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 3: if if I open the DraftKings app on on tomorrow
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 3: morning and see fifteen percent of those guys, I'm gonna
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 3: throw my phone across the room.
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I gotta say again thank you to Aaron. He
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: was the comment we talked about a couple of weeks ago.
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: But I mean, you're not new here by this point.
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: If you're looking for picks and plays, absolutely the wrong place,
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 2: and the show just quite well every week. I think
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 2: people are starting to understand the game that we play.
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 2: But who cares. They're just people that are going into
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 2: lineups like you're gonna put them in, put them in.
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna build lineups and whoever lands in them is
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 2: who lands on them. But I think that's important to remember.
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 2: You know, worry about a pick or a play is
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 2: a result effect after the fact. If they have good weeks,
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 2: you needed them. But build your lineups accordingly and think
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 2: about this stuff. Go ahead, But this is also not
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: the not the show for course history. We're we're gonna
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 2: talk much about courtse history.
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 3: So and look, I think it's not surprising. It's actually
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 3: a really interesting combo of guys that you just brought
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 3: up because Cam Young and Victor Holind historically are two
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 3: of the best drivers of the golf ball on tour.
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 3: As we've talked about, though Victor Hovelin, at least right now.
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 3: Is not that Hovelin's driving is really what's holding him back.
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 3: Right now, we actually have Hoblin projected to lose strokes
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 3: to this field in both driving distance and driving accuracy.
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 3: We still have Cam gaining in both. He's still great
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 3: off the tee, so his course fit by no means
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 3: is bad this week. It is interesting though, he's not
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 3: very good with his long iron, so it's surprising that
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 3: that hasn't hurt him as much now. That can be
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 3: a factor of he hits the ball so far that
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 3: maybe he gets fewer long irons than most, and he's
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 3: mostly in the mid iron category where he's very capable,
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 3: So that part's interesting, But the Hoblin one, especially historically,
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 3: he has been a great fit for this golf course. Also,
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 3: remember the fact that around the green is significantly less
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 3: predictive than usual here. That makes Hoblin a great fit.
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 3: So in that regard he's still very solid. But you
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 3: need to drive the ball well here, even though it's
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 3: going to be softer this year, I expect that to
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 3: still be true at least to some degree. So Hoblin
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 3: is definitely not the same fit this year for the
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 3: golf course that he's been in the past because he
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 3: just can't figure out the driver. I mean last week
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 3: he spent like three hours on the range after one
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 3: of his rounds, trying twenty different drivers or something like that,
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 3: and then still stunk the next day off the tee.
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 3: I don't think it's a driver issue. I think it's
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 3: a swing issue. And until I see him driving the
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 3: ball well again, I think he's going to struggle because
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 3: the worst he drives the ball, the less he can
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 3: take advantage of the fact that he's probably the second
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 3: best iron player in the world, only behind Scotty. And
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 3: on top of that, the worst he drives the ball,
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 3: the more situations he's going to put himself in where
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 3: he can't hit the green and he does have to
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 3: rely on his poor short game. So I really need
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 3: to see him driving the ball before I'm back in
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 3: on him.
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, our man mack in and at the course again
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: checked out a little Victor hobbling La to day. You
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 2: guys can find if you're a member at the site
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 2: under Boots bullets. You want to know exactly what it says.
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 2: These are bullet points, so it's very straightforward, not at
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 2: all in control with the driver, so still still not there.
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 2: Whether that matters or not, we'll see it's anything. I
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 2: think an interesting thing would be to your point of
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: the around the green game, with Victor usually being a
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 2: thing and something that's important, Well it's not for the
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 2: first couple of days. We could easily see Victor start
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 2: hot and then fall apart over the weekend as the
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 2: things for them up a little bit or whatever it
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: might be. If that happens, you know where, that would
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 2: be a bit of a problem. But yeah, like I said,
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: it's not gonna be a course history thing or anything
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: like that that we're looking at it from that perspective.
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 2: Look at your builds, play your lane. If I was
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 2: looking at the you know my stuff, I would probably
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 2: include them in the pool. But for my main sigle Adrio,
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna be skipping right over that range particularly goes
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: to you know. If I in that range, I definitely
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 2: like some of the other guys better anyway. So just
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: little things like that throughout. So all right, I don't
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: have too much else to add. Man, if you guys
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 2: want to go over to ship at Nation, you can
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 2: get in. We got the early word special include Sabersim
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 2: for the entire season. You can go into the discord.
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 2: You get the projections ownership, the Stone Boots Bullets, Boots
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 2: on the Ground report that Matt will have out later today. Alex,
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 2: did you have anything else you want to add? Obviously
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 2: you got your discord FTN. Hit him up where the
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: people can find you and then we'll get out of here.
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah, find me at Alex Plicka one on Twitter and
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 3: you can get all FTN stuff or my discord stuff
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 3: from there. Promo code leverage for my discord ten percent
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 3: off forever, Promo code blick at FTN Fantasy for ten
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 3: percent off the.
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 2: BLIKEL trickle Baby, We're back on it. That's another one too.
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 2: A good bullet actually brought his dad with him this week.
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 2: Obviously he's they always talk about it. What is like
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 2: Sleepy Hollow or the course pro I forget the name
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 2: of the course now, but it's something like that in
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 2: New York and all these different factors. But one other,
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 2: just funny thing I saw while we were on here.
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 2: I think it was forget who posted it, but anyway,
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 2: Brendan Pora, Yeah, I think you know it was a
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 2: Brendan Porath or whatever his name is, the golf reporter guy.
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 2: But anyway, he posted it, and Vic Hovland posted on
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 2: his Instagram like smh, dot dot dot shake in my
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 2: head and there's a huge tree on fifteen now where
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 2: he used to come through the trees all up there
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 2: now it's like, you ain't doing that this week. That'd
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 2: be a very bad idea. No, maybe he'll try and
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 2: fly it over, but highly doubt it. So right on, guys,
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 2: Appreciate you always a lot of fun doing these shows.
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: Appreciate Alex for hopping on with me every week and
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 2: getting this done. Make sure to hit that thumbs up.
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 2: You're watching it on mobile, just click the little X
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 2: on the chat, hit the thumbs up, subscribe to the channel.
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 2: We back this time next week ten thirty am Eastern
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 2: for Alex for myself totaging tambo led ship It