Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 66 - 6/28/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 66 - 6/28/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello and welcome to episode 66 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:34
  Happy Friday. Our work week is coming to an
• 0:37
  end. The weekend is upon us.
• 0:39
  It's the last weekend in June before you flip the page, get to
• 0:43
  July for 4th of July coming up here, which I'm very excited
• 0:46
  about because I'm going to California.
• 0:48
  That's right. Me and the wife are going to go
• 0:50
  visit her, her in laws in San Diego.
• 0:52
  So I'm very much looking forward to that.
• 0:54
  Seeing some fireworks around Coronado.
• 0:56
  So that should be fun. But a big weekend ahead here
• 0:59
  guys. We have a lot to get to on
• 1:00
  today's podcast because I have a four pack of sweats for you
• 1:04
  today, all Major League Baseball, all very short numbers
• 1:07
  here. At least three of them are
• 1:08
  basically around to pick them. A very sharp moves to to
• 1:11
  discuss. And then we also have AUFC
• 1:14
  biting play for this weekend because I found a match here,
• 1:18
  which is the welterweight on the main card.
• 1:20
  Huge, huge sharp line move, 5050 tickets, but heavy, heavy money
• 1:25
  as well as a big youth advantage.
• 1:26
  So get right back into the Octagon with some biting.
• 1:30
  See if we can keep our winning streak going in the UFC and then
• 1:33
  I'm going to give you an NFL win total.
• 1:36
  That's right. I bet you didn't expect me to
• 1:37
  talk about NFL here for today, but I went on my Thursday
• 1:41
  appearance, which I always do on sharp money on V sin with my
• 1:43
  buddy Patrick Maher and Dustin Swedelson and I gave out a win
• 1:47
  total because we just released a NFL betting guide.
• 1:50
  But you can find vsin.com, which is where basically the where I
• 1:54
  write all my sharp reports as well as all the articles.
• 1:56
  Anyway, they said, hey, you got any win totals?
• 1:58
  I said, Yup, I got one I really, really like from a data-driven
• 2:01
  perspective. And I'm going to compare this
• 2:03
  NFL team to the Baltimore Orioles, a really good, young,
• 2:06
  talented team that's on the rise.
• 2:08
  And I like them to go over their win total.
• 2:10
  So I'll tell you who that is if you want to put it in.
• 2:12
  Now, hopefully we can get some closing line value as it may
• 2:15
  move between now and opening Day.
• 2:17
  But with that being said, guys, looking back toward yesterday,
• 2:20
  one step forward, one step back, member, we are 4:00 and 1:00 on
• 2:23
  Wednesday. Last night, one and 4 -, 3
• 2:26
  units, nothing really went our way.
• 2:27
  Had the Twins as a winner early, but the Guardians had a one
• 2:30
  nothing lead. They blew it late.
• 2:32
  The Giants lost an extra innings.
• 2:34
  The Cardinals losing 11 to four to the Reds.
• 2:36
  Come on, man, that's pathetic. But the one that's frustrating
• 2:39
  was WNBA. Remember we were talking about
• 2:41
  that. Indiana, Seattle over 167 1/2.
• 2:44
  They scored 51 points in the first quarter and they end up
• 2:48
  landing on 166. So literally one more bucket and
• 2:52
  anytime I'm always anytime I lose an over, I always
• 2:54
  immediately get frustrated and I say, OK, let me go to the foul
• 2:57
  shots because I always go to the box score and I say, hey, did
• 2:59
  you make your free throws or did you screw me by not making your
• 3:02
  free throws? I noticed that.
• 3:03
  I want to say it was the fever. We're eleven of eighteen from
• 3:06
  the free throw stripe. So it's always tough when you
• 3:08
  get a, you know, an over 167 1/2 lands 166.
• 3:12
  Just kind of a tough beat on that one.
• 3:13
  But we're going to turn the page and hopefully have a winning day
• 3:16
  here for today. Now, you may have had a little
• 3:18
  bit better of a day yesterday because this actually was a bet
• 3:21
  that I placed back on October 2nd of 2023 last year and it was
• 3:26
  Connor McDavid to win the Calder Trophy.
• 3:29
  The rookie of the year. I got McDavid at -120 This is
• 3:33
  back when I used to do a pod previous to this one, and it was
• 3:36
  a big bet that I made early saying, hey, this guy is Connor
• 3:39
  McDavid, it's Connor Bedard. Did I say McDavid?
• 3:42
  It's Bedard, obviously. But anyway, he's the next Connor
• 3:45
  McDavid and we're getting a pretty good price.
• 3:47
  This is almost like the Wenbenyama bet where hey, hit it
• 3:49
  early immediately. It's probably going to move.
• 3:51
  I think McDavid end up, or I keep saying McDavid, Bedard
• 3:54
  closed something like -10,000 or something.
• 3:56
  So maybe you were able to cash some NHL awards, including Conor
• 4:00
  Badad for Rookie of the Year, which was a nice hit and made
• 4:03
  that one in four night maybe a little bit better.
• 4:05
  So with that being said, let's dive right into our sweats.
• 4:08
  I'm going to start off with some Major League Baseball big slate
• 4:11
  here tonight, 15 games overall. Let's dive right into our sweats
• 4:15
  for tonight. So first one on the board for
• 4:17
  me, let's look at a 7 O 7:00 PM Eastern Time first pitch.
• 4:20
  The New York Yankees and the Toronto Blue Jays now going to
• 4:24
  this one. The Blue Jays 37 and 43, not
• 4:27
  having a great year, but they have one, two straight.
• 4:29
  They won last night's series opener 9:00 to 2:00 as a + 110
• 4:33
  home dog. Meanwhile, the Yankees 52 and
• 4:35
  31, still a great record. They're going to go with Marcus
• 4:38
  Stroman here tonight, seven and three, 3.15 ERA.
• 4:41
  The Jays meanwhile, are going to go with you say Kachuki, the
• 4:44
  lefty, 4:00 and 7:00, then ERA of four.
• 4:47
  Now, what have we seen across the market here?
• 4:49
  Well, what's really fascinating to me is that the public says
• 4:52
  Yankees open -120 -, 115. The Yankees are a good team.
• 4:56
  They lost last night. They have to come back and win
• 4:59
  tonight, right? Well, that's what the public
• 5:01
  saying. And again, this is a we like to
• 5:03
  refer to as the gambler's fallacy, which is basically,
• 5:05
  hey, you know, good team has lost, they have to come back and
• 5:08
  win tonight or a bad team's winning, they have to come back
• 5:10
  and lose tonight. But remember, not have to not
• 5:13
  who's due. It's all about what the market
• 5:15
  is telling you for that individual game.
• 5:17
  Don't let previous results good or bad, one way or the other
• 5:20
  influence you into taking one side just out of out of
• 5:23
  something being what you think is due.
• 5:25
  So anyway public is saying got to be Yankees right?
• 5:28
  Good record, good team, really short number only -120 -, 115
• 5:33
  Nearly 80% of bets are going Yankees.
• 5:35
  But this line guys is now down to a pick em.
• 5:38
  We open Yankees -120 -, 115 Now it's basically -110 - 1 O 5,
• 5:43
  both sides. And you got to ask yourself, if
• 5:45
  everyone's betting Yankees, why is this line falling toward
• 5:48
  Toronto? If Yankees open -120 why are the
• 5:51
  odds makers now saying, hey, you like the Yankees?
• 5:53
  Now I'll give you a -. 110 -. 1 O 5 tells us that we have a
• 5:56
  smart money reverse line move on Toronto.
• 5:59
  RLM is when the betting line moves away from the popular side
• 6:02
  toward the unpopular side. Just remember a couple nights
• 6:04
  ago, the Mets were in the spot against again the Yankees, but
• 6:08
  we've seen this line go to Toronto.
• 6:10
  They're at one point getting like plus one O 5 + 100.
• 6:12
  Now they're again a pick and play even though they're getting
• 6:16
  only 21% of bets, seeing that line movement, which is huge.
• 6:19
  Now the Jays in the spot. I don't know if it's as much a
• 6:22
  bet on the Jays as it is maybe a fate of the Yankees because the
• 6:25
  Yankees are struggling right now.
• 6:26
  They're two and eight over their last ten games, they're only
• 6:28
  hitting $1.99. They have a team ERA of 7.45.
• 6:32
  They've been outscored by forty runs in their last 10 games.
• 6:35
  Now the Jays haven't been that that much better than three and
• 6:38
  seven over the last 10, but they're hitting 260 with an ERA
• 6:41
  of 5.14 and they've only been outscored by seven runs.
• 6:44
  So kind of a lesser of two evils play here with this line move in
• 6:47
  favor of the Jays. And also we have seen this total
• 6:50
  dip a little bit. You know, some shops 8 1/2
• 6:52
  really juiced up under like it may get down to 8 Publix on the
• 6:56
  over, yet this total is fallen or at least juice wise looks
• 6:59
  like it may fall down to 8. I did notice the Roger center,
• 7:02
  one of the better under stadiums and baseball, the under is 56
• 7:05
  percent, 64 and 50 since the start of last year.
• 7:09
  That's an 8% ROI. So I leaned a little bit under,
• 7:12
  but I'm just going with Toronto here because it looks like the
• 7:14
  ultimate gambler's fallacy play. Toronto stinks.
• 7:17
  Yankees are great. Yankees lost last night.
• 7:19
  Yankees have to come back and win tonight, right?
• 7:22
  Well, the line movement would tell you otherwise.
• 7:24
  I'm going Toronto here, guys, shop round.
• 7:26
  I got the Jays at around -1 O 5. Keep on cruising.
• 7:30
  A very similar situation here in terms of a road favorite where
• 7:34
  the line is going away from them, they're popular, and yet
• 7:36
  it's going away from them toward the contrarian home dog.
• 7:39
  So I'm referring to a 710 first pitch interleague matchup here
• 7:43
  between the Houston Astros and the New York Mets.
• 7:46
  Now going into it, we have two teams that are pretty much
• 7:49
  around 500. They've kind of disappointed to
• 7:51
  start the year but turned it around as of late.
• 7:54
  Coming into this one, we have the Houston Astros sitting at 40
• 7:57
  and 40. New York Mets are at 39 and 39.
• 8:00
  Astros just swept the two game series against Colorado.
• 8:03
  Mets just swept the two game series against the Yankees.
• 8:06
  So what are we seeing across the board for this one?
• 8:08
  Well, if you like Toronto, you like the New York Mets again, if
• 8:13
  if you're going to fade one of fade one, you got to fade both
• 8:15
  because these are very similar bet splits in line moves.
• 8:18
  So Houston open this game or should I go give you the the the
• 8:22
  pitching match up here First we have Ron El Blanco who has been
• 8:25
  good, but I think he got popped for sticky stuff on his glove.
• 8:28
  So who knows he's kind of a journeyman 30 year old who now
• 8:31
  has got a great record 8 and two. 2.34 sounds a little fishy
• 8:35
  to me but anyway, he'll be opposed by Jose Cantana, the
• 8:38
  veteran lefty who's three and five with a 4.58 year a Now what
• 8:42
  have we seen across the market here?
• 8:44
  Well, same thing as that Yankee game.
• 8:45
  The Astros are in the Yankee spot.
• 8:47
  Astros open on the road around -115 -, 120.
• 8:51
  Now the game is down to a pick em.
• 8:53
  So it's also important to note that 65% of bets are on Astros.
• 8:57
  If Publix all over Astros, again, why is the line going
• 9:00
  away from Houston? You would think getting 2/3 of
• 9:02
  bets -120 they'd be up to -130 no, it's actually going the
• 9:06
  other way, away from Houston toward the Mets tells us we got
• 9:09
  smart money here on the Mets. Now, Blanco's numbers are
• 9:12
  looking good this year. But Cantana has pitched pretty
• 9:14
  well in June and the month of June.
• 9:16
  He has a 3.15 ERA. The Mets have won three out of
• 9:19
  four starts. He's better at home than on the
• 9:21
  road. 3.49 ERA versus 5.63 and also the Mets are red hot.
• 9:27
  Mets got something going here. They're fifteen and four over
• 9:30
  the last 19 games. Now both teams are eight and two
• 9:33
  over the last 10. Both teams are playing well, but
• 9:35
  the Mets are hitting 319 in that time frame versus 294 for
• 9:40
  Houston. Mets have outscored their
• 9:41
  opponents by 38 runs. The Astros have also been good,
• 9:45
  but they've only outscored their opponents by 21 runs.
• 9:48
  But again, we got everybody betting Houston yet lines
• 9:51
  falling away from Houston toward the Mets.
• 9:52
  So I'm going to follow the sharp money.
• 9:54
  Give me the Metropolitans here, guys.
• 9:56
  Let's go. Mets got them at around -1 O 5.
• 10:00
  Keep on cruising. A little bit higher of a price
• 10:01
  here, but a big steam move. Let's go out to the desert.
• 10:04
  There's a 9:40 PM Eastern Time. First pitch between the Oakland
• 10:08
  Athletics and the Arizona Snakes.
• 10:10
  Now going into this one, we have the Athletics 29 and 54.
• 10:14
  They just got swept by the Angels.
• 10:16
  They lost Wednesday's series finale five to two as a + 120
• 10:19
  row dog. Meanwhile, the Snakes 39 and 42.
• 10:23
  I have their over 83 1/2 win total, so hover around 500.
• 10:26
  Get hot. Come on.
• 10:27
  We need these games for the over.
• 10:29
  But anyway, they just dropped two or three against the Twins.
• 10:31
  They lost thirteen to six yesterday, which was good for us
• 10:33
  because we have the Twins. But in tonight's interleague
• 10:36
  series opener, the A's are going with lefty JP Sears.
• 10:40
  He's four and seven on the year with a 5 point O 4 ERA.
• 10:44
  Meanwhile, the D backs are going with Slade Sesoni, Sesoni, he's
• 10:48
  two and six with a 5.74 ERA. Now, what have we seen across
• 10:51
  the market? Big steam on the snakes.
• 10:54
  This game open with Arizona listed around a -, 155 home
• 10:57
  favorite. And we've now seen Arizona get
• 10:59
  bet up all the way to -170 so about a 50-15 cents steam move
• 11:04
  away from Oakland in favor of Arizona tells me we got a lot of
• 11:08
  smart money laying the chalk here with the snakes tonight.
• 11:11
  Now Arizona's getting around 85% of bets, but nearly 95% of
• 11:14
  dollars. So both a pro and Joe bet split
• 11:17
  in addition to that 15 cents team move in their favor.
• 11:20
  Arizona's got the better bats really going to lean on their
• 11:22
  offense hopefully coming through tonight because both pitchers
• 11:25
  have, you know, not great ER as hopefully the the offense of
• 11:27
  Arizona can power through. But the snakes are hitting 250
• 11:31
  with 382 runs scored. Oakland's hitting 221 with 296
• 11:36
  runs scored. Now, in particular, D backs
• 11:39
  facing a lefty, the Arizona Diamondbacks against lefties
• 11:42
  this year, their third best in baseball.
• 11:44
  They're hitting 272. Arizona also has that classic
• 11:47
  interleague favorite value, lack of familiarity benefiting the
• 11:50
  better team. And I have a system match on
• 11:52
  Arizona as well. 2 sub 500 teams take the favorite.
• 11:55
  Very simple, but it's 168 and 1:14 this year. 60% with a 2%
• 12:00
  ROI. In particular, I want to bet
• 12:02
  against JP Sears. He has a 9.18 ERA in four June
• 12:06
  starts. Oakland has lost all four of
• 12:08
  those games. Oakland, meanwhile, is also 11
• 12:11
  and 31 on the road. That's the second worst Rd.
• 12:13
  record in baseball. You know who the worst is?
• 12:15
  The White Sox 8 and 33. So let's go snakes.
• 12:18
  And that's a little bit more expensive of a bet, but good
• 12:21
  sharp steam, No buyback. I'm on Arizona at -170 last bet
• 12:26
  of the night. Am I nervous about this one?
• 12:28
  Of course. But it's so freaking sharp.
• 12:30
  I got to play it. LA Dodgers, San Francisco Giants
• 12:33
  now going into this one, the Dodgers are 51 and 31.
• 12:37
  They just swept A3 game series against the White Sox.
• 12:39
  They won the finale on Wednesday, 4 to nothing as a -,
• 12:42
  165 road favorite. Meanwhile, the G men 39 and 43
• 12:46
  they just took three or four against the Cubs unfortunately
• 12:49
  couldn't sweep yesterday because had had the the Giants in that
• 12:52
  one end up losing 5 to 3 and extras as around a basically a
• 12:56
  pick em -110 home pick and play for tonight's series opener.
• 13:00
  The Dodgers are going with ready Landon Knack, who's one and one
• 13:04
  with a 2.1 OERA the G men. Meanwhile, the G men will go
• 13:08
  with ready ace Logan Webb, who's six and six with a 3.16 ERA.
• 13:12
  Now what have we seen across the market here?
• 13:14
  Well, I'm going to put this game right in that same bucket as the
• 13:18
  Yankees and Jays and the Houston Astros and the Mets, because we
• 13:21
  opened the dodgers on the road around a -, 120 Rd. favorite.
• 13:25
  And now this game is down to a pick em and even seeing some
• 13:28
  shops flip dog to fave in favor of San Francisco.
• 13:31
  San Francisco open like plus one O 5.
• 13:34
  Now I'm seeing -110 even -115 on the G men.
• 13:37
  So if 86% of bets on the Dodgers, everyone's saying
• 13:41
  again, you know, probably the biggest money line parlay
• 13:43
  tonight is Yankees, Dodgers and Houston, but everyone's betting
• 13:48
  Dodgers 86% of bets if the lines going away from the Dodgers
• 13:51
  toward San Francisco tells us smart money here is on the
• 13:54
  Giants with that dog to fave line move system.
• 13:57
  Match favorites off a loss, playing an opponent off a win.
• 14:00
  Those teams are 260 and 167 this year. 61% correlative betting
• 14:05
  favorite low total. San Fran is now the favorite
• 14:08
  total. 7 1/2 Does look like the under is pretty juiced up. 7 1/2
• 14:14
  under -115 -, 120. So that's pretty notable to me
• 14:18
  too because odds makers are juicing up the under even though
• 14:21
  nearly 75% of bets are taking the over.
• 14:23
  So maybe maybe the recipe here for San Fran is, you know, a
• 14:26
  three to two win, you know a four to one win, something like
• 14:29
  that. Web By the way, he's been there
• 14:32
  ace for quite a while. He's got a two point O 6 ERA at
• 14:34
  home versus 4 point O 8 on the road.
• 14:37
  But you Add all up guys, everyone's betting Dodgers,
• 14:40
  Lions going to G men. I'm going with the Giants in
• 14:42
  this one shop round. I got the Giants around -110 so
• 14:46
  four pack tonight. Can we get three of them,
• 14:48
  Toronto, New York, Mets, Arizona and the San Francisco G men.
• 14:54
  Now turning the page to some UFC, some biting in the arena,
• 14:58
  as you like to call it. And we're doing pretty decent
• 15:00
  here in the UFCI. Think we've won.
• 15:03
  I got a double check here, but been a good little streak here.
• 15:05
  I remember last year last week. And again, for those who don't
• 15:08
  bet UFC, I kind of like to give you just a very rudimentary
• 15:12
  model to follow, which has treated me pretty decent over
• 15:15
  the over the long haul here. And basically I'm looking for
• 15:17
  fighters who are younger, taller, have a longer reach,
• 15:21
  have a line move in their favor and have a good low bets, higher
• 15:24
  dollars bets foot. So I'm looking at UFC here.
• 15:27
  I don't want to jinx, but we won our last four.
• 15:29
  We had Woodson, Mago, Madoff, Miles Johns and last weekend we
• 15:33
  had Muin Ghafurov who came through.
• 15:36
  So looking at the card for this weekend, this is UFC3O3 Pereira
• 15:41
  versus Prachaska. I stumbled upon a bet split as
• 15:45
  well as a system match and a huge line move with a great
• 15:49
  young youth advantage in terms of the welterweight fight on the
• 15:53
  main card. So this is a fight between
• 15:55
  Michael Page and Ian Machado Gary.
• 15:58
  Who am I going with? Ian Machado Gary.
• 16:02
  Give me Ian Machado Gary, I got him at -150 Now First off, the
• 16:06
  first thing I noticed and I always give a shout out to my
• 16:08
  guy John Ewing. I used to work with him back in
• 16:10
  the day at sports insights and bet labs.
• 16:13
  He now works for bet MGM does a great job of basically just
• 16:16
  pumping out great information each day on his Twitter account.
• 16:19
  He's a great follow at John Ewing.
• 16:21
  But I always joke Fridays I I wake, I wait when I wake up
• 16:25
  around 9 AMI get that e-mail the bet splits for the UFC fight for
• 16:28
  that upcoming weekend. And I look for the first thing I
• 16:31
  cover up the names of the teams because I don't want my bias to
• 16:35
  interject. Like maybe I recognize the name
• 16:37
  that I bet before and won or bet before and lost.
• 16:40
  So I kind of cover up the names of the teams I scroll over.
• 16:43
  First thing I look at are the percentages, percentage of bets
• 16:47
  and dollars. Now what I'm looking for is a
• 16:49
  big discrepancy where a guy or or gal is getting a low amount
• 16:53
  of bets, but a high amount of money.
• 16:55
  That's a very, you know, basic indicator of the bigger, sharper
• 16:58
  wagers in their favor. So the first thing I noticed
• 17:00
  about Ian Machado Gary is that the money line tickets for this
• 17:04
  bout this point are 5050 right down the middle public doesn't
• 17:08
  know what to do page Gary 5050. Again, this is undecided for for
• 17:12
  the public. However, Ian Machado Gary is
• 17:16
  getting 85% of dollars. Again, he's only getting half
• 17:20
  the tickets, but 85% of dollars. So automatically my eyes light
• 17:24
  up and I say, hey, that is a + 35% smart money discrepancy.
• 17:29
  Then the second thing I do is go to the line movement because
• 17:32
  basically what I'm looking for is if a fighter or biter is
• 17:36
  getting a good low bets, higher dollars bet split.
• 17:37
  I also need them to have the line move in their favor because
• 17:41
  the bet splits important tells me they are taking in the
• 17:43
  bigger, sharper wagers, but also need the line to basically back
• 17:46
  that up. So I look at the line movement
• 17:48
  for Ian Machado. Gary, I noticed that he went, he
• 17:51
  opened at -115 and now he's up to -150 So boom, we're starting
• 17:56
  to check off some boxes. Only half the tickets, but 85%
• 18:00
  of dollars he moved from -115 to -150 good sharp steam move.
• 18:04
  Then I go to the tail of the tape and the first thing I
• 18:07
  notice is a huge youth advantage.
• 18:10
  Ian Machado, Gary is 26 years old.
• 18:13
  His opponent, Michael Page is 37 years old.
• 18:17
  That is an 11 year youth age advantage in favor of Gary over
• 18:21
  Page. And I can tell you I'm 37 years
• 18:23
  old. It is I get, I get sore after a
• 18:26
  beer league softball game. So that is a huge youth
• 18:28
  advantage. Again, I always mention this,
• 18:30
  but mentor of mine in the UFC was a big UFC better always told
• 18:35
  me fade fighters who are 35 or older, fade fighters who are
• 18:38
  five years older than their opponent.
• 18:41
  So that is a big fade of Paige here.
• 18:43
  And I basically a fight in favor or play in favor of Gary.
• 18:47
  Now both are 6 foot 2. Gary actually doesn't have the
• 18:50
  longer reach Paige does. He's got a 79 inch reach for a
• 18:53
  75. So you don't have the reach, but
• 18:55
  a big youth advantage. Good sharp steam move, great bet
• 18:58
  split. Then I was doing a little bit of
• 19:00
  research. Ian, Gary is 7 and O in the UFC.
• 19:03
  He's young and on the rise. He's got good cardio.
• 19:06
  And I noticed that Michael Page, he has only fought one bout in
• 19:12
  the UFC. He was in a league different
• 19:15
  from the UFC before he got the call.
• 19:18
  Now he did win his his first fight in the UFC beat Kevin
• 19:20
  Holland. But think of it this way, you're
• 19:23
  look, you're betting against the guy who's got basically no
• 19:25
  experience in the UFC, only one fight who's really old versus a
• 19:29
  guy who's 7 and O has good experience.
• 19:32
  The little cherry on top, I noticed significant strikes per
• 19:35
  minute. This is important because the
• 19:37
  more you offense you you put out there, the more it benefits you.
• 19:41
  If it's a decision and it goes to the judges, they typically
• 19:44
  lean on the fighter who has dished out more punishment, been
• 19:47
  more active, significant strikes per minute.
• 19:49
  Ian Machado Gary 6.27 Michael Page 3.14 so Ian Machado Gary is
• 19:56
  literally dishing out basically twice the amount of punishment
• 19:59
  as Michael page's. So you add it all up here guys.
• 20:02
  Low bets, higher dollars, sharp steam move, youth advantage,
• 20:06
  more experience, more significant strikes per minute.
• 20:09
  I'm going with Ian Machado Gary on the money line to win this
• 20:13
  bite at -150 Now to finish up the pod, we're going to talk a
• 20:18
  little NFL. That's right, because even
• 20:21
  though it's very early. You know, it's you know, we're
• 20:23
  still a few months away. We're actually not that far away
• 20:26
  from the NFL because pretty soon we're going to have training
• 20:29
  camps open. Before you know it, there's
• 20:30
  going to be obviously pre season games and then the season will
• 20:33
  be here right around the corner. So I want to get out ahead of it
• 20:37
  and I was looking at all the win totals and I love to bet win
• 20:40
  totals because it gives you a rooting interest throughout the
• 20:42
  year. Hopefully you can catch it at
• 20:44
  the end of the year. But there was one team in
• 20:46
  particular that caught my eye. Now, when it comes to win
• 20:49
  totals, my process is very similar to what we just talked
• 20:52
  about with with the UFC. I'm looking at line movement and
• 20:56
  juice movement because juice movement can tell you where the
• 20:58
  smart money's leaning. It can also help you predict
• 21:00
  which direction the line moves next.
• 21:02
  And then also the bet splits, which we're going to give you a
• 21:05
  little indication of a low bets, higher dollar smart money,
• 21:08
  basically kind of further evidence of smart money.
• 21:11
  So the team that I landed on, and it may seem obvious, but I'm
• 21:15
  going to call this team the next Baltimore Orioles because
• 21:18
  they're super young, super talented, and they're on the
• 21:21
  rise. This team is the Houston Texans.
• 21:24
  That's right. The Texans who went ten and
• 21:26
  seven last year. Remember they won that playoff
• 21:28
  game. I remember I bet on them because
• 21:29
  they are a great contrarian play against Cleveland.
• 21:31
  I think they're fade the trendy dog.
• 21:33
  They won 45 to 14. But anyway, the first thing I
• 21:35
  noticed about the Texans, first thing I start with is their win
• 21:39
  total movement. Now their win total open at 9
• 21:42
  1/2 this offseason, and when it opened it was 9 1/2 juiced under
• 21:47
  -120 now it's moved it's 9 1/2 / - 140.
• 21:52
  So it went from juicing, juicing up the under to now juicing up
• 21:55
  the over. So basically we're identifying
• 21:58
  juice movement that was leaning under now going over, telling us
• 22:02
  number one, that there's been some over money over 9 1/2 wins
• 22:05
  coming in, but also telling us maybe this thing gets up to 10.
• 22:09
  And the thing with win totals, the reason why I at least wanted
• 22:11
  to mention it today and get it out early, is that if we waited
• 22:15
  a month, this could be at 10. And then if they go 10 and
• 22:17
  seven, we push A10 versus win in over 9 1/2.
• 22:21
  Secondly, I looked at Bet MGM. I got a fresh batch of data the
• 22:24
  other day from their win totals. Currently 87% of bets, but 99%
• 22:29
  of money is going with the Texans over and again.
• 22:32
  Think of it this way. There isn't a lot of public
• 22:34
  who's betting, you know, NFL win totals right now.
• 22:37
  It's probably wise guys who have identified an edge.
• 22:40
  So a good plus 12% discrepancy. Here's what I'm also going to
• 22:44
  bank on. Offseason changes, a lot of
• 22:46
  great additions for the Texans. They brought in Stefan Diggs to
• 22:49
  pair with Nico Collins and Tank Dell.
• 22:51
  They brought in to Neil Hunter, to Nico Autry, Aziz, All Shire.
• 22:55
  I think he's a linebacker. And they brought in Joe Mixon,
• 22:58
  pretty good running back as well.
• 23:00
  I'm also going to bank on the fact that you have a rookie
• 23:03
  coach, rookie quarterback, Cornell going into year 2.
• 23:06
  So with that, you're under their belt.
• 23:07
  Some experience, expect them to only get better.
• 23:10
  And I was looking at on DraftKings, you can look at the
• 23:14
  spread for every single game. And right now the Texans are
• 23:18
  favored in 12 games and they're only a dog in five games.
• 23:21
  And the games that they're a dog in, they're getting 2 1/2
• 23:24
  against Green Bay, they're getting three against The Jets,
• 23:26
  they're getting one against the Jags, They're getting 4 1/2
• 23:28
  against Kansas City. They're getting 1 1/2 against
• 23:31
  Baltimore. So it's not, so it's not like
• 23:32
  they're A10 point dog. I mean, these are, you know, the
• 23:35
  biggest spread of the year for them right now is 4 1/2.
• 23:38
  So even those dog situations, you know, wouldn't be shocking
• 23:41
  if they were able to win a couple of those.
• 23:43
  Also the division, their win total is 9 1/2.
• 23:46
  Jags are 10 1/2 Indies 8 or sorry, Jags are 8 1/2, Indies 8
• 23:51
  1/2 and Tennessee is 6 1/2. So I like them to to go over
• 23:55
  this win total. So I'm sure we'll add some more
• 23:58
  win total bets as we get closer to the start of the season.
• 24:01
  But I want to put this in now on a Friday.
• 24:03
  Little surprise. I'm going Texans over 9 1/2 wins
• 24:07
  at -140 now that about does it for episode 66 of the All
• 24:12
  systems go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
• 24:16
  Now, if you enjoy this pod, if you enjoy the breakdowns, if you
• 24:19
  enjoy each day tuning in and you know, hearing some some sharp,
• 24:23
  sharp breakdowns and maybe you play all the picks I mentioned.
• 24:25
  Maybe you pick and choose. You can tail, you can fade, you
• 24:28
  can do whatever. But First off, thank you for
• 24:31
  taking the time out of your day to pull up a chair to the
• 24:33
  virtual bar, jump in the arena with me and sweat some some
• 24:36
  sharp contrarian plays. I appreciate it.
• 24:38
  Secondly, can I ask something of you?
• 24:40
  Can you please give this podcast a 5 star review?
• 24:43
  It would really mean a lot to me guys.
• 24:45
  Five star review helps us to rise up the charts, gain more
• 24:48
  credibility. Also, if you have the option to
• 24:50
  follow the pod, that's also great so you get alerted as soon
• 24:53
  as it gets released each afternoon.
• 24:55
  But seriously, a 5 star review would make my day.
• 24:58
  So please take the time to give the all systems Gopod A5 star
• 25:02
  review. Secondly, if you enjoy this
• 25:04
  podcast and you want to learn more about sharp data-driven
• 25:07
  contrarian betting, you enjoy kind of the approach, leaving
• 25:11
  your bias at the door and betting based on what the market
• 25:13
  is telling us, going contrarian, looking at identifying sharp
• 25:16
  action system matches, bet splits, all that kind of stuff
• 25:19
  we love. Well, if you want to learn more
• 25:21
  about data-driven betting, go buy my book, pick it up for you
• 25:25
  or for a friend or a colleague or a family member.
• 25:28
  It's called the everything guide to sports betting.
• 25:30
  Just go to Amazon.com, type in the Everything Guide to Sports
• 25:33
  Betting and again, it's got everything I've learned in the
• 25:35
  industry. How lines are set, how and why
• 25:37
  they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
• 25:40
  action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
• 25:43
  for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan, all
• 25:46
  included in the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 25:49
  Lastly, have you signed up for your 7 day free trial of Rhythm
• 25:53
  or your 7 day free trial of Juice Reel?
• 25:55
  Well, if you haven't done it yet, go do that right now.
• 25:58
  It's a big weekend for golf. It's a big weekend for WNBA and
• 26:02
  Rhythm is going to help you cash them tickets with their AI
• 26:05
  backed projections and models. You can sign up for Rhythm just
• 26:08
  by clicking the bio description within this podcast.
• 26:12
  Also Juice Reel, I've been highlighting some arbitrage
• 26:15
  opportunities which basically is betting both sides and
• 26:19
  guaranteeing some wins or basically guaranteeing a profit.
• 26:23
  There was a perfect example yesterday with the Reds game
• 26:26
  where you could basically take the over 3 1/2 team total runs
• 26:29
  at one book, under 3 1/2 at another and based on the price,
• 26:32
  you know you're guaranteed like a $5 profit.
• 26:35
  So you can get those arbitrage bets from Juice Reel.
• 26:38
  You can also get the Robo Jackson AI recommended best bets
• 26:41
  each day the Sharp Mush plays all included when you sign up
• 26:45
  for the Juice Reel 7 day free trial, which once again is
• 26:48
  located that custom link in the bio description of this podcast.
• 26:52
  Lastly, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
• 26:55
  River in Rhode Island in Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
• 26:57
  Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in
• 27:00
  Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my
• 27:03
  neck of the woods in Massachusetts are out in the
• 27:05
  desert where the true grinders get down.
• 27:07
  Where Billy Walters sends his number runners with lowest use
• 27:09
  possible sound at the South Point or sweating sharp
• 27:12
  contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swim pool at Circa,
• 27:15
  wherever it may be. You show me his Twins ticket.
• 27:18
  You're going to show me a Connor Badad Rookie of the Year ticket.
• 27:21
  Hopefully you had paid attention when I recommended that way back
• 27:24
  in October. And guess what?
• 27:25
  First one's on me, next one's on you.
• 27:27
  We're going to post about the book.
• 27:28
  Sweat Sharp Can Train plays all night long.
• 27:31
  So wish you the best of luck everyone.
• 27:32
  Have a fantastic weekend. I'm actually going to hit the
• 27:36
  road with the wife and the pup and we're going to a music
• 27:38
  festival with my family. Solid sound.
• 27:41
  Any Wilco fans out there? It is in Western Mass.
• 27:44
  We did every two years they host it.
• 27:46
  It's super awesome. Jason Isbelle's playing tonight.
• 27:48
  So I'm very much looking forward to that.
• 27:50
  But I will see you guys back on Monday for episode 67 of the All
• 27:55
  Systems Go Sports Betting podcast.
• 27:58
  My parting words, as always, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet
• 28:00
  against the public, place yourself on the side of the
• 28:02
  house. Always be with the smart money,
• 28:04
  never against it. Well, smart money won every
• 28:06
  time. Of course not.
• 28:07
  But always remember, we're playing a long game.
• 28:10
  And if we can consistently find the games that fit our model
• 28:12
  against the public with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
• 28:16
  avoid parlays, get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
• 28:19
  to be successful sports bettors. So enjoy the biting this
• 28:22
  weekend, guys, have a great Friday and an even better
• 28:26
  weekend. I'll see you back on Monday for
• 28:27
  episode 67 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered
• 28:32
  by Rhythm. Good luck everybody, have a
• 28:34
  great weekend.